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The Latest Legend Market Report got me thinking

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  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,120 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @CoinJunkie said:
    In fairness, if viewed at subatomic resolution, I doubt you'd even notice those marks on the Franklin. B)

    You wouldn't notice THOSE marks, but it would look VERY bumpy...

  • cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 10,167 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 16, 2021 6:22PM

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @CoinJunkie said:
    In fairness, if viewed at subatomic resolution, I doubt you'd even notice those marks on the Franklin. B)

    You wouldn't notice THOSE marks, but it would look VERY bumpy...

    Zoom out a bit and you'd see craters in Franklin's face. :D

  • ColonelJessupColonelJessup Posts: 6,442 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 17, 2021 3:24AM

    deleted

    "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
  • cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 10,167 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ColonelJessup said:
    deleted

    What did I miss?

  • ColonelJessupColonelJessup Posts: 6,442 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Richard Feynman called. We discussed quarks, bosons and the possible presence of "dark matter" on the lens of our SEM. He recommends a 5X o:)

    "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
  • pmh1nicpmh1nic Posts: 3,274 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zoins said:

    @oreville said:
    Indeed transaction costs are very different between stocks s and coins but real estate transaction costs are even higher than coins and other collectibles plus many risks that coins do not have.

    Real estate has risks if you over leverage like anything. The people I know in real estate have ways to reduce risk by having a network of financiers, builders and people to assist with zoning changes. That being said, I’ve met people with friends that committed suicide after the 2008 crash.

    That is truly sad. If you're alive and relatively healthy you can always make more money.

    The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
  • RubiconRubicon Posts: 201 ✭✭✭

    @Gazes said:
    I always enjoy the Legend's Market Report. I love coins and love reading the thoughts of one of the top dealers. This week the report mentioned that BIllionaire's are now well represented in our hobby. The market report caught my eye on a few comments 1) at least 6 billionaire's have collections ranging at the low end of 25 million and a couple over 200 million 2) one collector has over 3.6 million in duplicates and her comment is that this has deprived others from completing sets and the most important comment from my perspective 3) the report states "we suggest people adjust their tastes and budgets." Wow.

    This report got me thinking and prepared to make a bold prediction. Let me preface this opinion that I am talking about the upper end of the coin market which I will define as generally condition census coins and/or coins $10,000 and up. My prediction is that we will see the greatest price move we have ever seen over the next 5 years for these top tier coins.

    This opinion has been percolating in mind for the last several months but the Legend report crystalized it. First there is alot of money out there at the top. We see it driving up prices from everything from bit coin, to digital art, to baseball cards, etc. Assuming the report is accurate, the ultra wealthy has found coins. If you are buying condition census coins and holding them, it does not take much push these prices up. When a condition census coin comes up for sale the effect of not knowing when the next one will come around will help push up the prices.

    There use to be pockets of really rare series that you could collect in condition census (i.e liberty quarter eagle) and pay $12,000 for a top 2 or 3 census coin. I think those days may be over. As for less expensive coins, I dont think the same dynamics exist and those coins will not share the rise in prices. I see the gaps between the top tier coins and the rest as growing.

    Again, just an opinion but I have collected a long time and never had this strong of an opinion as I do now.

    The upper crust coin collectors are totally disconnected from the $100-$5000 collector market and have little or no bearing on overall price levels for the real coin market.

  • GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Rubicon said:

    @Gazes said:
    I always enjoy the Legend's Market Report. I love coins and love reading the thoughts of one of the top dealers. This week the report mentioned that BIllionaire's are now well represented in our hobby. The market report caught my eye on a few comments 1) at least 6 billionaire's have collections ranging at the low end of 25 million and a couple over 200 million 2) one collector has over 3.6 million in duplicates and her comment is that this has deprived others from completing sets and the most important comment from my perspective 3) the report states "we suggest people adjust their tastes and budgets." Wow.

    This report got me thinking and prepared to make a bold prediction. Let me preface this opinion that I am talking about the upper end of the coin market which I will define as generally condition census coins and/or coins $10,000 and up. My prediction is that we will see the greatest price move we have ever seen over the next 5 years for these top tier coins.

    This opinion has been percolating in mind for the last several months but the Legend report crystalized it. First there is alot of money out there at the top. We see it driving up prices from everything from bit coin, to digital art, to baseball cards, etc. Assuming the report is accurate, the ultra wealthy has found coins. If you are buying condition census coins and holding them, it does not take much push these prices up. When a condition census coin comes up for sale the effect of not knowing when the next one will come around will help push up the prices.

    There use to be pockets of really rare series that you could collect in condition census (i.e liberty quarter eagle) and pay $12,000 for a top 2 or 3 census coin. I think those days may be over. As for less expensive coins, I dont think the same dynamics exist and those coins will not share the rise in prices. I see the gaps between the top tier coins and the rest as growing.

    Again, just an opinion but I have collected a long time and never had this strong of an opinion as I do now.

    The upper crust coin collectors are totally disconnected from the $100-$5000 collector market and have little or no bearing on overall price levels for the real coin market.

    Odd comment. My OP made a prediction that specifically carved out coins that were $10,000 plus or condition census. This thread made no comment on the $100-$5000 level. Feel free to start a new thread If you wish to discuss that topic.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,120 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Gazes said:

    @Rubicon said:

    @Gazes said:
    I always enjoy the Legend's Market Report. I love coins and love reading the thoughts of one of the top dealers. This week the report mentioned that BIllionaire's are now well represented in our hobby. The market report caught my eye on a few comments 1) at least 6 billionaire's have collections ranging at the low end of 25 million and a couple over 200 million 2) one collector has over 3.6 million in duplicates and her comment is that this has deprived others from completing sets and the most important comment from my perspective 3) the report states "we suggest people adjust their tastes and budgets." Wow.

    This report got me thinking and prepared to make a bold prediction. Let me preface this opinion that I am talking about the upper end of the coin market which I will define as generally condition census coins and/or coins $10,000 and up. My prediction is that we will see the greatest price move we have ever seen over the next 5 years for these top tier coins.

    This opinion has been percolating in mind for the last several months but the Legend report crystalized it. First there is alot of money out there at the top. We see it driving up prices from everything from bit coin, to digital art, to baseball cards, etc. Assuming the report is accurate, the ultra wealthy has found coins. If you are buying condition census coins and holding them, it does not take much push these prices up. When a condition census coin comes up for sale the effect of not knowing when the next one will come around will help push up the prices.

    There use to be pockets of really rare series that you could collect in condition census (i.e liberty quarter eagle) and pay $12,000 for a top 2 or 3 census coin. I think those days may be over. As for less expensive coins, I dont think the same dynamics exist and those coins will not share the rise in prices. I see the gaps between the top tier coins and the rest as growing.

    Again, just an opinion but I have collected a long time and never had this strong of an opinion as I do now.

    The upper crust coin collectors are totally disconnected from the $100-$5000 collector market and have little or no bearing on overall price levels for the real coin market.

    Odd comment. My OP made a prediction that specifically carved out coins that were $10,000 plus or condition census. This thread made no comment on the $100-$5000 level. Feel free to start a new thread If you wish to discuss that topic.

    Quite. And the "real coin market " includes everyone. In fact, you might be surprised at how many estates I see where the collector never spent $100 for a coin. Often $20 or $30 was the max. So the $100 to $5000 level also doesn't represent the "real market".

  • panexpoguypanexpoguy Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cameonut2011 said:

    @astrorat said:

    @ColonelJessup said:
    .> @oreville said:

    @trueblood said:
    Has the owner of Legend ever written anything that was negative about the strength of the coin market, just wondering? I understand Legend has an incredible reputation as a dealer and boutique auction house and I would be honored to buy a coin in my niche from them

    Yes of course, they have.

    Legend is very evenhanded.

    Legend's Market Report often noted sluggishness in many market niches,

    Veterans will recall many times when I have been "skeptical" about their knowledge. I've been around longer :# So be it! >:)
    Ethically, their auction operation is as squeaky-clean as it gets. o:)

    Yep, one could even say if examined under a neutron microscope, you would be 1000% confident. ;)

    This post made my day. 🤣

    Edited: For posterity here is the auction description from the 1958 PCGS MS67+ FBL Franklin that sold for $129k and then resold a short time later for $47k with Legend’s auction description presumably written by Laura.

    Laura’s original auction description:

    We unhesitatingly pronounce this the BEST and wildest 1958 Frankie in existence! EVERYTHING about this coin is mind boggling! EVERYTHING! 1000% PERFECT surfaces adorn both sides. Use a neutron microscope and you will find NO flaws of any size, any where.An intense luster nearly blinds you from all over. The color rivals ANY of the BEST Northern Lights coins-really! Electric shades of killer neon like violet/pearl green/raw blue explode all over the obverse in a sparkly way. The reverse has a killer mix of iridescent reddish rims, with phenomenal nearly neon like greenish gold centers. We rank the colors a 10+ on our 1-10 color scale we used for our North Lights coins. Do not just take our word on wild colors-see this coin. Also, ALL of the details are sharply struck. The eye appeal is outrageous! PCGS 18, NGC 4, CAC 20 (obviously resubs). The PCGS Population in MS67+ FBL is two, with NONE FINER; NGC has graded nothing finer than MS67 FBL. In the ENTIRE SERIES, none have been graded finer than MS67+ FBL. The current Collectors universe Value is $17,000. We can easily see this coin blowing past that long before the sale even starts. Again, we rank this coin as great as any of the top Northern Lights Dollars which sold for "beyond moon money." Be prepared! Cert. Number 35921630 PCGS # 86674

    In all fairness, Ben does look like I would expect someone to after having been subject to neutron bombardment. And as a neutron microscope reveals the inner structure of matter, the thing may well be perfect under the surface.

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,113 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 17, 2021 5:30PM

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @Gazes said:

    @Rubicon said:

    @Gazes said:
    I always enjoy the Legend's Market Report. I love coins and love reading the thoughts of one of the top dealers. This week the report mentioned that BIllionaire's are now well represented in our hobby. The market report caught my eye on a few comments 1) at least 6 billionaire's have collections ranging at the low end of 25 million and a couple over 200 million 2) one collector has over 3.6 million in duplicates and her comment is that this has deprived others from completing sets and the most important comment from my perspective 3) the report states "we suggest people adjust their tastes and budgets." Wow.

    This report got me thinking and prepared to make a bold prediction. Let me preface this opinion that I am talking about the upper end of the coin market which I will define as generally condition census coins and/or coins $10,000 and up. My prediction is that we will see the greatest price move we have ever seen over the next 5 years for these top tier coins.

    This opinion has been percolating in mind for the last several months but the Legend report crystalized it. First there is alot of money out there at the top. We see it driving up prices from everything from bit coin, to digital art, to baseball cards, etc. Assuming the report is accurate, the ultra wealthy has found coins. If you are buying condition census coins and holding them, it does not take much push these prices up. When a condition census coin comes up for sale the effect of not knowing when the next one will come around will help push up the prices.

    There use to be pockets of really rare series that you could collect in condition census (i.e liberty quarter eagle) and pay $12,000 for a top 2 or 3 census coin. I think those days may be over. As for less expensive coins, I dont think the same dynamics exist and those coins will not share the rise in prices. I see the gaps between the top tier coins and the rest as growing.

    Again, just an opinion but I have collected a long time and never had this strong of an opinion as I do now.

    The upper crust coin collectors are totally disconnected from the $100-$5000 collector market and have little or no bearing on overall price levels for the real coin market.

    Odd comment. My OP made a prediction that specifically carved out coins that were $10,000 plus or condition census. This thread made no comment on the $100-$5000 level. Feel free to start a new thread If you wish to discuss that topic.

    Quite. And the "real coin market " includes everyone. In fact, you might be surprised at how many estates I see where the collector never spent $100 for a coin. Often $20 or $30 was the max. So the $100 to $5000 level also doesn't represent the "real market".

    The "real coin market" was mentioned by @Rubicon in a comment. It was not mentioned in the OP.

    The OP indicated this thread is specifically about the following:

    @Gazes said:
    I am talking about the upper end of the coin market which I will define as generally condition census coins and/or coins $10,000 and up.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,120 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zoins said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @Gazes said:

    @Rubicon said:

    @Gazes said:
    I always enjoy the Legend's Market Report. I love coins and love reading the thoughts of one of the top dealers. This week the report mentioned that BIllionaire's are now well represented in our hobby. The market report caught my eye on a few comments 1) at least 6 billionaire's have collections ranging at the low end of 25 million and a couple over 200 million 2) one collector has over 3.6 million in duplicates and her comment is that this has deprived others from completing sets and the most important comment from my perspective 3) the report states "we suggest people adjust their tastes and budgets." Wow.

    This report got me thinking and prepared to make a bold prediction. Let me preface this opinion that I am talking about the upper end of the coin market which I will define as generally condition census coins and/or coins $10,000 and up. My prediction is that we will see the greatest price move we have ever seen over the next 5 years for these top tier coins.

    This opinion has been percolating in mind for the last several months but the Legend report crystalized it. First there is alot of money out there at the top. We see it driving up prices from everything from bit coin, to digital art, to baseball cards, etc. Assuming the report is accurate, the ultra wealthy has found coins. If you are buying condition census coins and holding them, it does not take much push these prices up. When a condition census coin comes up for sale the effect of not knowing when the next one will come around will help push up the prices.

    There use to be pockets of really rare series that you could collect in condition census (i.e liberty quarter eagle) and pay $12,000 for a top 2 or 3 census coin. I think those days may be over. As for less expensive coins, I dont think the same dynamics exist and those coins will not share the rise in prices. I see the gaps between the top tier coins and the rest as growing.

    Again, just an opinion but I have collected a long time and never had this strong of an opinion as I do now.

    The upper crust coin collectors are totally disconnected from the $100-$5000 collector market and have little or no bearing on overall price levels for the real coin market.

    Odd comment. My OP made a prediction that specifically carved out coins that were $10,000 plus or condition census. This thread made no comment on the $100-$5000 level. Feel free to start a new thread If you wish to discuss that topic.

    Quite. And the "real coin market " includes everyone. In fact, you might be surprised at how many estates I see where the collector never spent $100 for a coin. Often $20 or $30 was the max. So the $100 to $5000 level also doesn't represent the "real market".

    The "real coin market" was mentioned by @Rubicon in a comment. It was not mentioned in the OP.

    The OP indicated this thread is specifically about the following:

    @Gazes said:
    I am talking about the upper end of the coin market which I will define as generally condition census coins and/or coins $10,000 and up.

    I know. I was agreeing with @gazes.

  • OldIndianNutKaseOldIndianNutKase Posts: 2,700 ✭✭✭✭✭

    You guys have to give Laura credit where credit is due. She did not reference an electron microscope which would have much more resolution than a neutron microscope. Maybe her neutron microscope vintage 1949 is her grading scope?

  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭✭✭

    With billionaires really banking during the pandemic I certainly believe bidding competition on high grade, scarce desirable material will increase.

    Coins & Currency
  • panexpoguypanexpoguy Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OldIndianNutKase said:
    You guys have to give Laura credit where credit is due. She did not reference an electron microscope which would have much more resolution than a neutron microscope. Maybe her neutron microscope vintage 1949 is her grading scope?

    I was posting tongue in cheek. Laura has enthusiasm for the hobby and loves it and that works for me. Sometimes her exuberance and focus on top end coins can flavor her message in a way

    @Gazes said:
    I always enjoy the Legend's Market Report. I love coins and love reading the thoughts of one of the top dealers. This week the report mentioned that BIllionaire's are now well represented in our hobby. The market report caught my eye on a few comments 1) at least 6 billionaire's have collections ranging at the low end of 25 million and a couple over 200 million 2) one collector has over 3.6 million in duplicates and her comment is that this has deprived others from completing sets and the most important comment from my perspective 3) the report states "we suggest people adjust their tastes and budgets." Wow.

    This report got me thinking and prepared to make a bold prediction. Let me preface this opinion that I am talking about the upper end of the coin market which I will define as generally condition census coins and/or coins $10,000 and up. My prediction is that we will see the greatest price move we have ever seen over the next 5 years for these top tier coins.

    This opinion has been percolating in mind for the last several months but the Legend report crystalized it. First there is alot of money out there at the top. We see it driving up prices from everything from bit coin, to digital art, to baseball cards, etc. Assuming the report is accurate, the ultra wealthy has found coins. If you are buying condition census coins and holding them, it does not take much push these prices up. When a condition census coin comes up for sale the effect of not knowing when the next one will come around will help push up the prices.

    There use to be pockets of really rare series that you could collect in condition census (i.e liberty quarter eagle) and pay $12,000 for a top 2 or 3 census coin. I think those days may be over. As for less expensive coins, I dont think the same dynamics exist and those coins will not share the rise in prices. I see the gaps between the top tier coins and the rest as growing.

    Again, just an opinion but I have collected a long time and never had this strong of an opinion as I do now.

    I agree with you in that I have been noticing the same trend. I do see it extend a bit lower down the food chain from my observations. CAC coins are rising, CAC gold coins more than other CAC coins, and CAC gold coins that hit 5 figures seemingly being the point where appreciation becomes more vertical.

  • ReadyFireAimReadyFireAim Posts: 1,825 ✭✭✭✭✭

    3 pages later and I still have no idea what you folks are talking about.

  • cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 10,167 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ReadyFireAim said:
    3 pages later and I still have no idea what you folks are talking about.

    Neither do most of them… >:):D

    Just kidding…

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Seems to debate about the assertion that rare, old, beautiful, high-quality, expensive coins will appreciate faster, on average, than common, modern, ordinary (and ugly) average (and below) cheap coins.

    Not sure who's winning though... compelling arguments from both sides! 😂

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • kruegerkrueger Posts: 859 ✭✭✭

    Based on the above photo I guess MS 67 seems to have deterioated to what was before MS61-62 level .
    Classic example of buying the slab grade and the hype instead of the coin. Toning hides a lot.
    I have passed on more than a few high graded slabs ( for my registry) that were not worthy of my collection/eye.
    I heard David Hall once state in a PCGS grading class at a Long Beach coin show " We Make Mistakes".
    Another quote I remember from a well known foreign coin dealer I knew in the 80'S when shown a rare coin with some problems "Its not a nice coin".

  • pmh1nicpmh1nic Posts: 3,274 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It's a very nice coin but a little too much going on for a 67.

    The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
  • GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭

    HLRC sent out their newsletter today and one quote by Harry caught my eye. "The coin market continues to hum along at a very rapid pace. Certain areas of the market are as hot as I have ever experienced." That is quite a statment from someone i dont think of as overhyping the market routinely. I also liked his comment that "new buyers are everywhere." More evidence (at least to me) that my original OP back in April is on the right path.

  • CoinosaurusCoinosaurus Posts: 9,625 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 24, 2021 6:24PM

    I don't know what "neutron microscope" is, but Laura's description is all about the coin and not about what dollar number bidders decide to put on it. I didn't see it in person but I'm guessing the coin is wicked cool in hand.

  • ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,523 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Gazes said:

    @MasonG said:

    @Gazes said:
    I agree a 6 figure coin is upper stratosphere...

    No, you misunderstood my post. For most collectors, 5 figures is upper stratosphere.

    Ok. In my OP my prediction is for unprecedented growth in price for coins that are $10,000 or more and /or condition census.

    Have to disagree with the $10K coin being in the most expensive tier these days. 20 years ago, maybe, but not now. A mid range AU Heraldic Eagle Bust $ will fetch $10K if there's nothing major wrong with it.

    "Vou invadir o Nordeste,
    "Seu cabra da peste,
    "Sou Mangueira......."
  • GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Elcontador said:

    @Gazes said:

    @MasonG said:

    @Gazes said:
    I agree a 6 figure coin is upper stratosphere...

    No, you misunderstood my post. For most collectors, 5 figures is upper stratosphere.

    Ok. In my OP my prediction is for unprecedented growth in price for coins that are $10,000 or more and /or condition census.

    Have to disagree with the $10K coin being in the most expensive tier these days. 20 years ago, maybe, but not now. A mid range AU Heraldic Eagle Bust $ will fetch $10K if there's nothing major wrong with it.

    Dont think we disagree. I didnt say (or mean to ) $10,000 coins are the most expensive tier. My prediction was straight forward---coins that have a value of $10,000 or more and condition census coins would have unprecedented growth in price over the next several years.

  • ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,523 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Gazes said:

    @Elcontador said:

    @Gazes said:

    @MasonG said:

    @Gazes said:
    I agree a 6 figure coin is upper stratosphere...

    No, you misunderstood my post. For most collectors, 5 figures is upper stratosphere.

    Ok. In my OP my prediction is for unprecedented growth in price for coins that are $10,000 or more and /or condition census.

    Have to disagree with the $10K coin being in the most expensive tier these days. 20 years ago, maybe, but not now. A mid range AU Heraldic Eagle Bust $ will fetch $10K if there's nothing major wrong with it.

    Dont think we disagree. I didnt say (or mean to ) $10,000 coins are the most expensive tier. My prediction was straight forward---coins that have a value of $10,000 or more and condition census coins would have unprecedented growth in price over the next several years.

    I agree with you for the most part. But I'd go with a higher number, maybe $20K (some of might stretch for one $10K coin for a type set, and that's it).

    Condition census coins are a question mark. If you're talking about a pre Seated Liberty era coin, I'd agree, because few new ones of that era are 'made.'

    But once you're past the 1870s, that's no longer true. For example, look what happened to the condition census Liberty Nickels since 2014. The 1896 was a pop 4 and several sold for $18K around 2005-7. I was offered one in 2016 for $6K and turned it down.

    "Vou invadir o Nordeste,
    "Seu cabra da peste,
    "Sou Mangueira......."
  • GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @skier07 said:

    @Gazes said:

    @Zoins said:

    @Gazes said:
    One last note---many posts have said that they tend to agree but many things could happen in the economy to derail a rise in prices. I absolutely agree. But I did label my OP as a bold prediction----if I hedged or predicted small gains that would not be bold. I really do think in 5 years the coins I identified in the OP will show price gains like we have not seen in decades and I also know that a 1000 things could happen to make my opinion be wrong.

    Why don't we pick 5 specific coins, post them and come back in 5 years?

    That could be pretty fun.

    We could start with the 1914-d pcgs 65 cac I listed. I'll give thought to 4 more!

    I’ll take the over on 35k. Anyone in a gambling mood?

    Winner! This old thread discussed predictions in price move for condition census coins prior to the strong price move in coins in recent months. @skier07 predicted the 1914-d quarter eagle pcgs 65 cac would be worth over 35k within 5 years (at the time in april the price was arguably around 25k -29k). Last month, in a Heritage sale one of the 5 stickered 1914-d in MS 65 sold for $38,400. Given the huge popularity of this series and the lack of gem cac coins, I predict the buyer will do well with this coin once it is sold again down the road.

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