Indeed transaction costs are very different between stocks s and coins but real estate transaction costs are even higher than coins and other collectibles plus many risks that coins do not have.
@MasonG said:
"The rest of the world could not collect Buffalos in GEM."
The overwhelming majority of the rest of the world doesn't collect buffalos in gem.
Just sayin'.
And “GEM” is an ambiguous term.
GEM means MS65-66 but I don’t know if that’s grades today or say 50 years ago.
Some people use “GEM” for MS/PR64, too, so at least three different grades are included.
Regardless, I don’t claim to know how many collectors stopped pursuing Buffalo nickels for their sets. But I bet the large majority of them have continued and that includes “GEM” examples. “The rest of the world” was a rather large exaggeration.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@oreville said:
Indeed transaction costs are very different between stocks s and coins but real estate transaction costs are even higher than coins and other collectibles plus many risks that coins do not have.
Real estate has risks if you over leverage like anything. The people I know in real estate have ways to reduce risk by having a network of financiers, builders and people to assist with zoning changes. That being said, I’ve met people with friends that committed suicide after the 2008 crash.
Some really great insight into the high end collectors. I still am in the learning mode and find this post very educational.
Someone holding over 3.6 million in duplicates puzzles me as for that price, you could buy some serious coins to upgrade your collections. For a billionaire, I know that amount is just pocket, chump change. I wonder if thy would let me check their couch cushions? lol
Wayne
@jonruns said: @Gazes I sold my 1845-O P/C AU55 $2.50 yesterday in the Heritage auction. It was one of the nicest coins in my collection and I really enjoyed my two years of stewardship...but given other priorities I decided to take some money off the table. When I purchased it from DW for $14K I assumed I would probably never get my money back (Price Guide = $11K) but lo and behold it hammered yesterday for $16K.
But while I agree that the market will probably go up over the next five years that doesn't mean it will go up in a straight line. Like Bitcoin, there will be pull-backs and opportunities over time to find bargains.
Thanks to Zane (@zas107) for making it super easy to sell this great coin and making it worth my while to consign it thru him.
Glad you got a strong price for it. This is exactly the type of coin that I see doing very well over the next 5 years. I sold my 1845-O lib QE pcgs au 58 cac a few years ago----one of the few coins I really regret selling.
@Zoins said:
If one whale prevents others from collecting gem 🦬 nickels, will more whales prevent more collecting for more types? If so, what will happen to the collecting landscape?
Not within the context of this thread, unless you have in mind a noticeably larger number of affluent buyers than implied here.
The supply and quality distribution for the vast majority of US coinage accommodates the ability of most collectors to still buy what they consider acceptable.
It's nothing like what applies to many world coins.
@Zoins said:
If one whale prevents others from collecting gem 🦬 nickels, will more whales prevent more collecting for more types? If so, what will happen to the collecting landscape?
Not within the context of this thread, unless you have in mind a noticeably larger number of affluent buyers than implied here.
The supply and quality distribution for the vast majority of US coinage accommodates the ability of most collectors to still buy what they consider acceptable.
It's nothing like what applies to many world coins.
The context of the thread from Laura is that there aren’t enough coins. So perhaps you don’t agree with the premise to begin with?
@jonruns said: @Gazes I sold my 1845-O P/C AU55 $2.50 yesterday in the Heritage auction. It was one of the nicest coins in my collection and I really enjoyed my two years of stewardship...but given other priorities I decided to take some money off the table. When I purchased it from DW for $14K I assumed I would probably never get my money back (Price Guide = $11K) but lo and behold it hammered yesterday for $16K.
But while I agree that the market will probably go up over the next five years that doesn't mean it will go up in a straight line. Like Bitcoin, there will be pull-backs and opportunities over time to find bargains.
Thanks to Zane (@zas107) for making it super easy to sell this great coin and making it worth my while to consign it thru him.
Glad you got a strong price for it. This is exactly the type of coin that I see doing very well over the next 5 years. I sold my 1845-O lib QE pcgs au 58 cac a few years ago----one of the few coins I really regret selling.
The price evolution of the really nice 1845-O $2.5's has been very interesting. @jonruns coin was very nice for the grade. I was rooting for it to go for strong money. I have one in PCGS AU53 with a gold CAC sticker. It was previously an NGC AU58 green CAC. It is a coin i am keeping for many of the reasons cited in this thread.
@Zoins said:
If one whale prevents others from collecting gem 🦬 nickels, will more whales prevent more collecting for more types? If so, what will happen to the collecting landscape?
Not within the context of this thread, unless you have in mind a noticeably larger number of affluent buyers than implied here.
The supply and quality distribution for the vast majority of US coinage accommodates the ability of most collectors to still buy what they consider acceptable.
It's nothing like what applies to many world coins.
The context of the thread from Laura is that there aren’t enough coins. So perhaps you don’t agree with the premise to begin with?
I understood your question in a different context. What I am saying is that most collectors (not just "lower budget") will settle for coins other the the quality she specifically discussed.
If you are inferring that some collectors who buy this quality now will quit collecting by not accepting anything less, it can happen.
But I don't believe very many fit this profile because the quality variance isn't usually that large.
Laura said that "we suggest people adjust their tastes and budgets." I don't want to say I disagree, because it's hard to know what Laura actually means just by reading what she says - - but, well, I disagree. Better advice is to maintain one's "taste and budget", but collect something not yet completely dominated by whales. And FWIW, I've abandoned at least a couple of collections over the years because I came to realize that I could not compete, and I don't regret those decisions in the least.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@oreville said:
Indeed transaction costs are very different between stocks s and coins but real estate transaction costs are even higher than coins and other collectibles plus many risks that coins do not have.
Depends on where you are with real estate. In NY State, the transaction costs are higher than coins. In parts of the south, the only real cost with real estate transactions are the realtor costs that a whale could negotiate down.
The same is really true of coins. If you are in a state with no sales tax on coins, then your transaction costs can be minimal, especially on whale sized coins. But if you are in a state that taxes coins, the transaction costs can be appreciable, although there are whale-sized loopholes that could be exploited.
I don't know enough whales. However, I wonder how many whales consider any collectible purchase as an "investment". You don't buy a $70 million painting as an investment, methinks, nor a $100 million yacht. You buy it for bragging rights and pride of ownership.
When Terry Pegula bought the Buffalo Sabres for $100 million+ a decade ago, he made a point that he did it to win a Stanley Cup, not to make money. Paraphrasing, he said that "if I wanted to make money, I'd drill another gas well".
The cost of acquiring great coins has gone up and availability has gone done in my opinion. I expect to have to pay more to fill the remaining holes in my set and wait longer for the opportunity. It's somewhat of a good problem to have as what i have already bought is doing well. I don't think i could redo what i have done in the last 10-12 years without more money and more time.
@Zoins said:
If one whale prevents others from collecting gem 🦬 nickels, will more whales prevent more collecting for more types? If so, what will happen to the collecting landscape?
Not within the context of this thread, unless you have in mind a noticeably larger number of affluent buyers than implied here.
The supply and quality distribution for the vast majority of US coinage accommodates the ability of most collectors to still buy what they consider acceptable.
It's nothing like what applies to many world coins.
The context of the thread from Laura is that there aren’t enough coins. So perhaps you don’t agree with the premise to begin with?
For type collectors, long term, I agree with WCC.
For an IHC collector, I agree with Laura.
How have specialist dealers like Rick Snow been affected?
EOC has complained he can't find material.
Not saying prices will not climb... just it is a big ocean.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
@Zoins said:
If one whale prevents others from collecting gem 🦬 nickels, will more whales prevent more collecting for more types? If so, what will happen to the collecting landscape?
Not within the context of this thread, unless you have in mind a noticeably larger number of affluent buyers than implied here.
The supply and quality distribution for the vast majority of US coinage accommodates the ability of most collectors to still buy what they consider acceptable.
It's nothing like what applies to many world coins.
The context of the thread from Laura is that there aren’t enough coins. So perhaps you don’t agree with the premise to begin with?
For type collectors, long term, I agree with WCC.
Type collectors have a lot to choose from and I think there are more type collectors relative to date/mm collectors now.
For an IHC collector, I agree with Laura.
It gets a harder for date/mm collectors because the requirements get narrowed down to a much smaller subset of coins with date/mm collecting.
How have specialist dealers like Rick Snow been affected?
EOC has complained he can't find material.
I expect this to free up somewhat a year or two after COVID.
Not saying prices will not climb... just it is a big ocean.
People can always leave the hobby, but it only takes 2 to make prices rise.
@earlyAurum said:
The cost of acquiring great coins has gone up and availability has gone done in my opinion. I expect to have to pay more to fill the remaining holes in my set and wait longer for the opportunity. It's somewhat of a good problem to have as what i have already bought is doing well. I don't think i could redo what i have done in the last 10-12 years without more money and more time.
One thing that's interesting is that while the cost has certainly gone up, a lot of very rare coins have become available recently that were unavailable for decades. It's like all of a sudden, within a space of a few years, many renowned coins have come up for sale. Of course, now that the've sold, it will be interesting to see how long it takes them to come to market again.
An interesting idea in the OP. It doesn’t affect me because I’ll almost certainly never have a 10k coin but it does get me thinking: whenever there is growing price pressure things adjust to compensate. Will we see more pressure to adjust market grading to get more marginal pieces higher or rising price pressure on next grade down coins to relieve the gap between grades?
@earlyAurum said:
The cost of acquiring great coins has gone up and availability has gone done in my opinion. I expect to have to pay more to fill the remaining holes in my set and wait longer for the opportunity. It's somewhat of a good problem to have as what i have already bought is doing well. I don't think i could redo what i have done in the last 10-12 years without more money and more time.
One thing that's interesting is that while the cost has certainly gone up, a lot of very rare coins have become available recently that were unavailable for decades. It's like all of a sudden, within a space of a few years, many renowned coins have come up for sale. Of course, now that the've sold, it will be interesting to see how long it takes them to come to market again.
I can’t speak for non-gold but between the Fairmont Collection being sold by Stacks, Kunker (Germany), and other European hoards there are hundreds if not thousands of fresh old gold coins to hit the market and some of the Kunker coins are top pops and/or rare.
I will give another example of the type of coin I believe will see the strong demand and price gains in the next 5 years (which I think has begun).
A year ago there was a thread about a 1914-d Indian quarter eagle pcgs 65 cac. The thread discussed that this coin originally sold for $10,271 but later received CAC approval and sold for 26,401 at auction. I posted back in June 2020 that I thought this coin would end up being a bargain. I said:
"There are many people that collect quarter eagle indians (a very popular series). There are many people who try to collect coins with CAC approval...there are only 4 [CAC] available. That means only 4 collectors can build a set of QE Indians in PCGS 65 CAC....My guess is that number will not change much and the price will be a bargain down the road."
Those were my thoughts less than a year ago. I noticed a 1914-D PCGS 65 CAC was for sale on Paradime's site. The price was listed as $35,000. I dont know when it was first listed but soon after seeing it I saw it is marked as sold. The CAC census is now 5 for this coin with none higher (it actually had been 5 previously and then reduced to 4 and now back to 5).
the issues in the other thread were somewhat different, but it does illustrate some of the basis for my opinion in my OP. Coins that are condition census (a pcgs 1914-d ms65 and CAC is condition census) now have many deep pocket collectors desiring them and holding the coins. That is why I thought this 1914-d was actually a bargain at 26k less than a year ago and I still believe will be a bargain at 35k (I know we do not know the actual price it sold but will assume it was the 35k listed or close to it)(the 1914-d in 65 cac is more rare than the 1911-d that trades for around 70k in 65 cac)
One last note---many posts have said that they tend to agree but many things could happen in the economy to derail a rise in prices. I absolutely agree. But I did label my OP as a bold prediction----if I hedged or predicted small gains that would not be bold. I really do think in 5 years the coins I identified in the OP will show price gains like we have not seen in decades and I also know that a 1000 things could happen to make my opinion be wrong.
@Gazes said:
One last note---many posts have said that they tend to agree but many things could happen in the economy to derail a rise in prices. I absolutely agree. But I did label my OP as a bold prediction----if I hedged or predicted small gains that would not be bold. I really do think in 5 years the coins I identified in the OP will show price gains like we have not seen in decades and I also know that a 1000 things could happen to make my opinion be wrong.
Why don't we pick 5 specific coins, post them and come back in 5 years?
@Gazes said:
One last note---many posts have said that they tend to agree but many things could happen in the economy to derail a rise in prices. I absolutely agree. But I did label my OP as a bold prediction----if I hedged or predicted small gains that would not be bold. I really do think in 5 years the coins I identified in the OP will show price gains like we have not seen in decades and I also know that a 1000 things could happen to make my opinion be wrong.
Why don't we pick 5 specific coins, post them and come back in 5 years?
That could be pretty fun.
We could start with the 1914-d pcgs 65 cac I listed. I'll give thought to 4 more!
@Gazes said:
One last note---many posts have said that they tend to agree but many things could happen in the economy to derail a rise in prices. I absolutely agree. But I did label my OP as a bold prediction----if I hedged or predicted small gains that would not be bold. I really do think in 5 years the coins I identified in the OP will show price gains like we have not seen in decades and I also know that a 1000 things could happen to make my opinion be wrong.
Why don't we pick 5 specific coins, post them and come back in 5 years?
That could be pretty fun.
We could start with the 1914-d pcgs 65 cac I listed. I'll give thought to 4 more!
I’ll take the over on 35k. Anyone in a gambling mood?
Sorry she blowing in wind w me. When she called my stuff under $1000 widgets lost me ages ago. But I do like her marketing letters - they would make good model to work from devise Promo ones stuff. I think USA coins overpriced especially Vs Mexico issues of same time period. And then graded world currency new frontier of numismatics. My view forward focused ... slabbed low pop world coins & currency. Now that’s exciting and material that will soar!
Plus billionaires smart and will not blow out stuff in stock market that pays nice dividends to buy coins lol. So a few of them may drive up ultra US rarities hardly anybody can afford (if even happens). Guy in coin club (was right about coming 89 crash) says “coin collecting prolly dead in 22nd, 23rd century sadly with demise of cash money but mint state old video games like GTA in original pkg worth millions.”
It gets a harder for date/mm collectors because the requirements get narrowed down to a much smaller subset of coins with date/mm collecting.
It gets harder when the coins are actually scarce (like Liberty QE) but a series like the IHC isn't. Per the criteria of the OP, how many set collectors are there who are predominantly or exclusively buying $10,000+ IHC? Are there really that many of them where more than a minimal proportion can't find the quality they will accept?
PCGS has graded over 3000 at MS-66 or above and about the same number in PR. I didn't look at NGC. Even considering duplicates and a series of this length, the supply isn't that low. The supply meeting Legend's criteria is low because they define it for themselves but it's not low outside this context.
@Cougar1978 said:
Sorry she blowing in wind w me. When she called my stuff under $1000 widgets lost me ages ago. But I do like her marketing letters - they would make good model to work from devise Promo ones stuff. I think USA coins overpriced especially Vs Mexico issues of same time period. And then graded world currency new frontier of numismatics. My view forward focused ... slabbed low pop world coins & currency. Now that’s exciting and material that will soar!
Plus billionaires smart and will not blow out stuff in stock market that pays nice dividends to buy coins lol. So a few of them may drive up ultra US rarities hardly anybody can afford (if even happens). Guy in coin club (was right about coming 89 crash) says “coin collecting prolly dead in 22nd, 23rd century sadly with demise of cash money but mint state old video games like GTA in original pkg worth millions.”
@Cougar1978 said:
Sorry she blowing in wind w me. When she called my stuff under $1000 widgets lost me ages ago. But I do like her marketing letters - they would make good model to work from devise Promo ones stuff. I think USA coins overpriced especially Vs Mexico issues of same time period. And then graded world currency new frontier of numismatics. My view forward focused ... slabbed low pop world coins & currency. Now that’s exciting and material that will soar!
Plus billionaires smart and will not blow out stuff in stock market that pays nice dividends to buy coins lol. So a few of them may drive up ultra US rarities hardly anybody can afford (if even happens). Guy in coin club (was right about coming 89 crash) says “coin collecting prolly dead in 22nd, 23rd century sadly with demise of cash money but mint state old video games like GTA in original pkg worth millions.”
I’ll be sure to be out by the 22nd Century...
Man you don't know how to hold out for the long term.
@Cougar1978 said:
Sorry she blowing in wind w me. When she called my stuff under $1000 widgets lost me ages ago. But I do like her marketing letters - they would make good model to work from devise Promo ones stuff. I think USA coins overpriced especially Vs Mexico issues of same time period. And then graded world currency new frontier of numismatics. My view forward focused ... slabbed low pop world coins & currency. Now that’s exciting and material that will soar!
Plus billionaires smart and will not blow out stuff in stock market that pays nice dividends to buy coins lol. So a few of them may drive up ultra US rarities hardly anybody can afford (if even happens). Guy in coin club (was right about coming 89 crash) says “coin collecting prolly dead in 22nd, 23rd century sadly with demise of cash money but mint state old video games like GTA in original pkg worth millions.”
I’ll be sure to be out by the 22nd Century...
Man you don't know how to hold out for the long term.
@Cougar1978 said:
Sorry she blowing in wind w me. When she called my stuff under $1000 widgets lost me ages ago. But I do like her marketing letters - they would make good model to work from devise Promo ones stuff. I think USA coins overpriced especially Vs Mexico issues of same time period. And then graded world currency new frontier of numismatics. My view forward focused ... slabbed low pop world coins & currency. Now that’s exciting and material that will soar!
Plus billionaires smart and will not blow out stuff in stock market that pays nice dividends to buy coins lol. So a few of them may drive up ultra US rarities hardly anybody can afford (if even happens). Guy in coin club (was right about coming 89 crash) says “coin collecting prolly dead in 22nd, 23rd century sadly with demise of cash money but mint state old video games like GTA in original pkg worth millions.”
I’ll be sure to be out by the 22nd Century...
Man you don't know how to hold out for the long term.
Very few collections last multiple generations. The only one beyond two generations I know of is the William Strickland to Lord St Oswald collection.
@gazes The other coin that I sold in the Heritage was a 56-O $5 that is top pop CAC and it did not do as well as the 45-O $2.50...the hammer was for about what I paid for it so the buyer paid a 20% premium vs DW's price two years ago in an NGC holder (I crossed it)...I pretty much just got my money back...thanks to Zane (zas107) I made a little extra for my efforts...
I generally agree with your conclusion that top pop coins will increase...but I think that the largest increases will go to exceptional top pop KEY DATES...like the 45-O $2.50 or 70-CC $5...
A few wealthy people can prop up the market in the short run, but IMHO I think the end of the pandemic will mean people will go back to collecting memories not stuff...and that U.S. numismatics is on a long slow decline as those of who who searched thru rolls for cents to put in Whitman folders fade away...IMHO the vast majority of those who follow us don't have the same emotional attachment to coins...
For collectors it is really about quality for the grade more so than top pops. The right holder and stickers over time will simply not be a substitute for the coin that has the right look even if it is not numerically the finest known.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
@coinkat said:
For collectors it is really about quality for the grade more so than top pops. The right holder and stickers over time will simply not be a substitute for the coin that has the right look even if it is not numerically the finest known.
For SOME collectors.
We shouldn't pretend that top pop doesn't matter to some people. Registry sets are popular for a reason. If the "right look" was all that mattered, there would be a whole lot fewer clad dimes in holders.
@coinkat said:
For collectors it is really about quality for the grade more so than top pops. The right holder and stickers over time will simply not be a substitute for the coin that has the right look even if it is not numerically the finest known.
For SOME collectors.
We shouldn't pretend that top pop doesn't matter to some people. Registry sets are popular for a reason. If the "right look" was all that mattered, there would be a whole lot fewer clad dimes in holders.
Well, I’m guessing many of those top pop Roosevelt dimes look as good as a Roosevelt dime can look!
@coinkat said:
For collectors it is really about quality for the grade more so than top pops. The right holder and stickers over time will simply not be a substitute for the coin that has the right look even if it is not numerically the finest known.
For SOME collectors.
We shouldn't pretend that top pop doesn't matter to some people. Registry sets are popular for a reason. If the "right look" was all that mattered, there would be a whole lot fewer clad dimes in holders.
Well, I’m guessing many of those top pop Roosevelt dimes look as good as a Roosevelt dime can look!
Are you talking about condition or design?
Condition. I don't mean to pick on the dimes. The same could be said for Lincolns, Jeffersons, etc. There are a whole lot of $15 coins in $35 slabs because of registry sets.
Randomly picking a coin: 1938 Lincoln cent. Based on Greysheet (YMMV), you need to be 67 Red or better to be worth more than $30. According to the pop report: there are 78 in Brown, only one of which is 67; there are 166 RB, of which only 4 are 67; and there are 3742 in Red, 379 of which are 67 or 68. Without the top pop game, I don't think any of those get submitted.
86,000 Jefferson nickels have been certified. Would any of those other than a few varieties ever have been submitted?
I'm not arguing against this, mind you. But I think we should respect the people that choose to collect that way and not dismiss them as though they are not "collectors".
When I started this thread I made a bold prediction in my OP. I said "my prediction is that we will see the the greatest price move we have ever seen over the next 5 years for these top tier coins." I generally defined the top tier coins as condition census coins and five figure coins. Since I made the prediction a couple months ago I would change nothing. Not really thinking about the 1933 that went for 18 million plus but instead the prices of top Walkers in the LuLu short set sale are illustrative of exactly what I was predicting in my OP.
@Gazes said:
When I started this thread I made a bold prediction in my OP. I said "my prediction is that we will see the the greatest price move we have ever seen over the next 5 years for these top tier coins." I generally defined the top tier coins as condition census coins and five figure coins. Since I made the prediction a couple months ago I would change nothing. Not really thinking about the 1933 that went for 18 million plus but instead the prices of top Walkers in the LuLu short set sale are illustrative of exactly what I was predicting in my OP.
@Gazes said:
When I started this thread I made a bold prediction in my OP. I said "my prediction is that we will see the the greatest price move we have ever seen over the next 5 years for these top tier coins." I generally defined the top tier coins as condition census coins and five figure coins. Since I made the prediction a couple months ago I would change nothing. Not really thinking about the 1933 that went for 18 million plus but instead the prices of top Walkers in the LuLu short set sale are illustrative of exactly what I was predicting in my OP.
@Gazes said:
When I started this thread I made a bold prediction in my OP. I said "my prediction is that we will see the the greatest price move we have ever seen over the next 5 years for these top tier coins." I generally defined the top tier coins as condition census coins and five figure coins. Since I made the prediction a couple months ago I would change nothing. Not really thinking about the 1933 that went for 18 million plus but instead the prices of top Walkers in the LuLu short set sale are illustrative of exactly what I was predicting in my OP.
@Gazes said:
When I started this thread I made a bold prediction in my OP. I said "my prediction is that we will see the the greatest price move we have ever seen over the next 5 years for these top tier coins." I generally defined the top tier coins as condition census coins and five figure coins. Since I made the prediction a couple months ago I would change nothing. Not really thinking about the 1933 that went for 18 million plus but instead the prices of top Walkers in the LuLu short set sale are illustrative of exactly what I was predicting in my OP.
@Gazes said:
When I started this thread I made a bold prediction in my OP. I said "my prediction is that we will see the the greatest price move we have ever seen over the next 5 years for these top tier coins." I generally defined the top tier coins as condition census coins and five figure coins. Since I made the prediction a couple months ago I would change nothing. Not really thinking about the 1933 that went for 18 million plus but instead the prices of top Walkers in the LuLu short set sale are illustrative of exactly what I was predicting in my OP.
Victory lap
Oh no....too early!
What are you waiting for? The 1804 dollar is coming up but that's not the type of coins you're considering.
@trueblood said:
Has the owner of Legend ever written anything that was negative about the strength of the coin market, just wondering? I understand Legend has an incredible reputation as a dealer and boutique auction house and I would be honored to buy a coin in my niche from them
@trueblood said:
Has the owner of Legend ever written anything that was negative about the strength of the coin market, just wondering? I understand Legend has an incredible reputation as a dealer and boutique auction house and I would be honored to buy a coin in my niche from them
Yes of course, they have.
Legend is very evenhanded.
Legend's Market Report often noted sluggishness in many market niches,
Veterans will recall many times when I have been "skeptical" about their knowledge. I've been around longer So be it!
Ethically, their auction operation is as squeaky-clean as it gets.
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
@trueblood said:
Has the owner of Legend ever written anything that was negative about the strength of the coin market, just wondering? I understand Legend has an incredible reputation as a dealer and boutique auction house and I would be honored to buy a coin in my niche from them
Yes of course, they have.
Legend is very evenhanded.
Legend's Market Report often noted sluggishness in many market niches,
Veterans will recall many times when I have been "skeptical" about their knowledge. I've been around longer So be it!
Ethically, their auction operation is as squeaky-clean as it gets.
Yep, one could even say if examined under a neutron microscope, you would be 1000% confident.
Numismatist Ordinaire See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
@trueblood said:
Has the owner of Legend ever written anything that was negative about the strength of the coin market, just wondering? I understand Legend has an incredible reputation as a dealer and boutique auction house and I would be honored to buy a coin in my niche from them
Yes of course, they have.
Legend is very evenhanded.
Legend's Market Report often noted sluggishness in many market niches,
Veterans will recall many times when I have been "skeptical" about their knowledge. I've been around longer So be it!
Ethically, their auction operation is as squeaky-clean as it gets.
Yep, one could even say if examined under a neutron microscope, you would be 1000% confident.
This post made my day. 🤣
Edited: For posterity here is the auction description from the 1958 PCGS MS67+ FBL Franklin that sold for $129k and then resold a short time later for $47k with Legend’s auction description presumably written by Laura.
Laura’s original auction description:
We unhesitatingly pronounce this the BEST and wildest 1958 Frankie in existence! EVERYTHING about this coin is mind boggling! EVERYTHING! 1000% PERFECT surfaces adorn both sides. Use a neutron microscope and you will find NO flaws of any size, any where.An intense luster nearly blinds you from all over. The color rivals ANY of the BEST Northern Lights coins-really! Electric shades of killer neon like violet/pearl green/raw blue explode all over the obverse in a sparkly way. The reverse has a killer mix of iridescent reddish rims, with phenomenal nearly neon like greenish gold centers. We rank the colors a 10+ on our 1-10 color scale we used for our North Lights coins. Do not just take our word on wild colors-see this coin. Also, ALL of the details are sharply struck. The eye appeal is outrageous! PCGS 18, NGC 4, CAC 20 (obviously resubs). The PCGS Population in MS67+ FBL is two, with NONE FINER; NGC has graded nothing finer than MS67 FBL. In the ENTIRE SERIES, none have been graded finer than MS67+ FBL. The current Collectors universe Value is $17,000. We can easily see this coin blowing past that long before the sale even starts. Again, we rank this coin as great as any of the top Northern Lights Dollars which sold for "beyond moon money." Be prepared! Cert. Number 35921630 PCGS # 86674
Comments
Indeed transaction costs are very different between stocks s and coins but real estate transaction costs are even higher than coins and other collectibles plus many risks that coins do not have.
GEM means MS65-66 but I don’t know if that’s grades today or say 50 years ago.
Some people use “GEM” for MS/PR64, too, so at least three different grades are included.
Regardless, I don’t claim to know how many collectors stopped pursuing Buffalo nickels for their sets. But I bet the large majority of them have continued and that includes “GEM” examples. “The rest of the world” was a rather large exaggeration.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Real estate has risks if you over leverage like anything. The people I know in real estate have ways to reduce risk by having a network of financiers, builders and people to assist with zoning changes. That being said, I’ve met people with friends that committed suicide after the 2008 crash.
Some really great insight into the high end collectors. I still am in the learning mode and find this post very educational.
Someone holding over 3.6 million in duplicates puzzles me as for that price, you could buy some serious coins to upgrade your collections. For a billionaire, I know that amount is just pocket, chump change. I wonder if thy would let me check their couch cushions? lol
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
I say let the whales battle it out, it has no effect on myself, I am not a participant in the deep end of the pool.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Glad you got a strong price for it. This is exactly the type of coin that I see doing very well over the next 5 years. I sold my 1845-O lib QE pcgs au 58 cac a few years ago----one of the few coins I really regret selling.
Not within the context of this thread, unless you have in mind a noticeably larger number of affluent buyers than implied here.
The supply and quality distribution for the vast majority of US coinage accommodates the ability of most collectors to still buy what they consider acceptable.
It's nothing like what applies to many world coins.
The context of the thread from Laura is that there aren’t enough coins. So perhaps you don’t agree with the premise to begin with?
The price evolution of the really nice 1845-O $2.5's has been very interesting. @jonruns coin was very nice for the grade. I was rooting for it to go for strong money. I have one in PCGS AU53 with a gold CAC sticker. It was previously an NGC AU58 green CAC. It is a coin i am keeping for many of the reasons cited in this thread.
I understood your question in a different context. What I am saying is that most collectors (not just "lower budget") will settle for coins other the the quality she specifically discussed.
If you are inferring that some collectors who buy this quality now will quit collecting by not accepting anything less, it can happen.
But I don't believe very many fit this profile because the quality variance isn't usually that large.
Laura said that "we suggest people adjust their tastes and budgets." I don't want to say I disagree, because it's hard to know what Laura actually means just by reading what she says -
- but, well, I disagree. Better advice is to maintain one's "taste and budget", but collect something not yet completely dominated by whales. And FWIW, I've abandoned at least a couple of collections over the years because I came to realize that I could not compete, and I don't regret those decisions in the least.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Edited... deleted
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
Depends on where you are with real estate. In NY State, the transaction costs are higher than coins. In parts of the south, the only real cost with real estate transactions are the realtor costs that a whale could negotiate down.
The same is really true of coins. If you are in a state with no sales tax on coins, then your transaction costs can be minimal, especially on whale sized coins. But if you are in a state that taxes coins, the transaction costs can be appreciable, although there are whale-sized loopholes that could be exploited.
I don't know enough whales. However, I wonder how many whales consider any collectible purchase as an "investment". You don't buy a $70 million painting as an investment, methinks, nor a $100 million yacht. You buy it for bragging rights and pride of ownership.
When Terry Pegula bought the Buffalo Sabres for $100 million+ a decade ago, he made a point that he did it to win a Stanley Cup, not to make money. Paraphrasing, he said that "if I wanted to make money, I'd drill another gas well".
They call them "trophy coins" for a reason.
The cost of acquiring great coins has gone up and availability has gone done in my opinion. I expect to have to pay more to fill the remaining holes in my set and wait longer for the opportunity. It's somewhat of a good problem to have as what i have already bought is doing well. I don't think i could redo what i have done in the last 10-12 years without more money and more time.
For type collectors, long term, I agree with WCC.
For an IHC collector, I agree with Laura.
How have specialist dealers like Rick Snow been affected?
EOC has complained he can't find material.
Not saying prices will not climb... just it is a big ocean.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
Type collectors have a lot to choose from and I think there are more type collectors relative to date/mm collectors now.
It gets a harder for date/mm collectors because the requirements get narrowed down to a much smaller subset of coins with date/mm collecting.
I expect this to free up somewhat a year or two after COVID.
People can always leave the hobby, but it only takes 2 to make prices rise.
One thing that's interesting is that while the cost has certainly gone up, a lot of very rare coins have become available recently that were unavailable for decades. It's like all of a sudden, within a space of a few years, many renowned coins have come up for sale. Of course, now that the've sold, it will be interesting to see how long it takes them to come to market again.
RCI Players should stick to a sane budget lol. If somebody brazenly tells you need adjust your budget (upwards lol run.
Does she have any CAC coins at bid?
An interesting idea in the OP. It doesn’t affect me because I’ll almost certainly never have a 10k coin but it does get me thinking: whenever there is growing price pressure things adjust to compensate. Will we see more pressure to adjust market grading to get more marginal pieces higher or rising price pressure on next grade down coins to relieve the gap between grades?
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
I can’t speak for non-gold but between the Fairmont Collection being sold by Stacks, Kunker (Germany), and other European hoards there are hundreds if not thousands of fresh old gold coins to hit the market and some of the Kunker coins are top pops and/or rare.
I will give another example of the type of coin I believe will see the strong demand and price gains in the next 5 years (which I think has begun).
A year ago there was a thread about a 1914-d Indian quarter eagle pcgs 65 cac. The thread discussed that this coin originally sold for $10,271 but later received CAC approval and sold for 26,401 at auction. I posted back in June 2020 that I thought this coin would end up being a bargain. I said:
"There are many people that collect quarter eagle indians (a very popular series). There are many people who try to collect coins with CAC approval...there are only 4 [CAC] available. That means only 4 collectors can build a set of QE Indians in PCGS 65 CAC....My guess is that number will not change much and the price will be a bargain down the road."
Those were my thoughts less than a year ago. I noticed a 1914-D PCGS 65 CAC was for sale on Paradime's site. The price was listed as $35,000. I dont know when it was first listed but soon after seeing it I saw it is marked as sold. The CAC census is now 5 for this coin with none higher (it actually had been 5 previously and then reduced to 4 and now back to 5).
the issues in the other thread were somewhat different, but it does illustrate some of the basis for my opinion in my OP. Coins that are condition census (a pcgs 1914-d ms65 and CAC is condition census) now have many deep pocket collectors desiring them and holding the coins. That is why I thought this 1914-d was actually a bargain at 26k less than a year ago and I still believe will be a bargain at 35k (I know we do not know the actual price it sold but will assume it was the 35k listed or close to it)(the 1914-d in 65 cac is more rare than the 1911-d that trades for around 70k in 65 cac)
One last note---many posts have said that they tend to agree but many things could happen in the economy to derail a rise in prices. I absolutely agree. But I did label my OP as a bold prediction----if I hedged or predicted small gains that would not be bold. I really do think in 5 years the coins I identified in the OP will show price gains like we have not seen in decades and I also know that a 1000 things could happen to make my opinion be wrong.
Why don't we pick 5 specific coins, post them and come back in 5 years?
That could be pretty fun.
We could start with the 1914-d pcgs 65 cac I listed. I'll give thought to 4 more!
I’ll take the over on 35k. Anyone in a gambling mood?
Sorry she blowing in wind w me. When she called my stuff under $1000 widgets lost me ages ago. But I do like her marketing letters - they would make good model to work from devise Promo ones stuff. I think USA coins overpriced especially Vs Mexico issues of same time period. And then graded world currency new frontier of numismatics. My view forward focused ... slabbed low pop world coins & currency. Now that’s exciting and material that will soar!
Plus billionaires smart and will not blow out stuff in stock market that pays nice dividends to buy coins lol. So a few of them may drive up ultra US rarities hardly anybody can afford (if even happens). Guy in coin club (was right about coming 89 crash) says “coin collecting prolly dead in 22nd, 23rd century sadly with demise of cash money but mint state old video games like GTA in original pkg worth millions.”
It gets harder when the coins are actually scarce (like Liberty QE) but a series like the IHC isn't. Per the criteria of the OP, how many set collectors are there who are predominantly or exclusively buying $10,000+ IHC? Are there really that many of them where more than a minimal proportion can't find the quality they will accept?
PCGS has graded over 3000 at MS-66 or above and about the same number in PR. I didn't look at NGC. Even considering duplicates and a series of this length, the supply isn't that low. The supply meeting Legend's criteria is low because they define it for themselves but it's not low outside this context.
Higher prices should increase supply right? Higher prices should draw coins out.
I’ll be sure to be out by the 22nd Century...
Man you don't know how to hold out for the long term.
It’s a bit like real estate. They are not making any more.
ROFL!
Very few collections last multiple generations. The only one beyond two generations I know of is the William Strickland to Lord St Oswald collection.
@gazes The other coin that I sold in the Heritage was a 56-O $5 that is top pop CAC and it did not do as well as the 45-O $2.50...the hammer was for about what I paid for it so the buyer paid a 20% premium vs DW's price two years ago in an NGC holder (I crossed it)...I pretty much just got my money back...thanks to Zane (zas107) I made a little extra for my efforts...
I generally agree with your conclusion that top pop coins will increase...but I think that the largest increases will go to exceptional top pop KEY DATES...like the 45-O $2.50 or 70-CC $5...
A few wealthy people can prop up the market in the short run, but IMHO I think the end of the pandemic will mean people will go back to collecting memories not stuff...and that U.S. numismatics is on a long slow decline as those of who who searched thru rolls for cents to put in Whitman folders fade away...IMHO the vast majority of those who follow us don't have the same emotional attachment to coins...
For collectors it is really about quality for the grade more so than top pops. The right holder and stickers over time will simply not be a substitute for the coin that has the right look even if it is not numerically the finest known.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
For SOME collectors.
We shouldn't pretend that top pop doesn't matter to some people. Registry sets are popular for a reason. If the "right look" was all that mattered, there would be a whole lot fewer clad dimes in holders.
Not pretending... just pointing out that there are other paths that can lead to an enjoyable outcome.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Well, I’m guessing many of those top pop Roosevelt dimes look as good as a Roosevelt dime can look!
Are you talking about condition or design?
Condition. I don't mean to pick on the dimes. The same could be said for Lincolns, Jeffersons, etc. There are a whole lot of $15 coins in $35 slabs because of registry sets.
Randomly picking a coin: 1938 Lincoln cent. Based on Greysheet (YMMV), you need to be 67 Red or better to be worth more than $30. According to the pop report: there are 78 in Brown, only one of which is 67; there are 166 RB, of which only 4 are 67; and there are 3742 in Red, 379 of which are 67 or 68. Without the top pop game, I don't think any of those get submitted.
86,000 Jefferson nickels have been certified. Would any of those other than a few varieties ever have been submitted?
I'm not arguing against this, mind you. But I think we should respect the people that choose to collect that way and not dismiss them as though they are not "collectors".
When I started this thread I made a bold prediction in my OP. I said "my prediction is that we will see the the greatest price move we have ever seen over the next 5 years for these top tier coins." I generally defined the top tier coins as condition census coins and five figure coins. Since I made the prediction a couple months ago I would change nothing. Not really thinking about the 1933 that went for 18 million plus but instead the prices of top Walkers in the LuLu short set sale are illustrative of exactly what I was predicting in my OP.
Victory lap
But will it last? I hope so.
Oh no....too early!
Take it whenever you can
What are you waiting for? The 1804 dollar is coming up but that's not the type of coins you're considering.
Yes of course, they have.
Legend is very evenhanded.
.> @oreville said:
Legend's Market Report often noted sluggishness in many market niches,
Veterans will recall many times when I have been "skeptical" about their knowledge. I've been around longer
So be it! 
Ethically, their auction operation is as squeaky-clean as it gets.
Yep, one could even say if examined under a neutron microscope, you would be 1000% confident.
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
This post made my day. 🤣
Edited: For posterity here is the auction description from the 1958 PCGS MS67+ FBL Franklin that sold for $129k and then resold a short time later for $47k with Legend’s auction description presumably written by Laura.
In fairness, if viewed at subatomic resolution, I doubt you'd even notice those marks on the Franklin.