Wonder what types of cards were sent to cause PSA to stop new orders.
giantsfan20
Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭✭
Was wondering as the quote from PSA President Steve Sloan said 100,000 a day, what exactly are they sending. Would be intersting to see what was being sent and a breakdown of the ellusive 10s etc.
Good for PSA but prices could be lower with a glut of graded cards on the market in the future?
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Everything but especially ultra modern is my guess
Every single rookie card of Baseball, Football, Basketball, Hockey, Soccer, Golf, Wrestling, Tennis, Archery, Bowling, LaCrosse, NASCAR, Curling from Topps, Topps Chrome, Topps Update, Topps Inception, Topps Sapphire, Topps Ben Baller, Gypsy Queen, Heritage, Bowman, Bowman, Chrome, Bowman Draft, Donruss, Optic, Panini, Mosiac, Prizm, Select, Elite.
And don’t forget, each set from each brand has its each parallel set in each color from the Pittsburgh Paints color wheel.
Here’s what I have on the pile...sent in shortly before the freeze. The tickets I’d been wanting to submit for a while and finally got around to it. The deckle edge I sent in after I saw the swingin sixties special. The Iversons’s and Barry Sanders I sent in after seeing what 9’s and 10’s were getting during the recent price surge.
Don't forget Pokemon!
My wager is that they are seeing an inordinate amount of junk wax. I'm guessing a good mix of professional dealers that will hit 9s and 10s and a bunch of newbies subbing the junk from their closet which will come back 6s and 7s.
Too many....
might be quicker to list the cards that weren't sent in...
I think its stuff like this. Seller seems to not know cards. Sends in 10 or so not worth even grading. And wants 8.50 for shipping.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1975-Topps-Rich-Gossage-VG-3-PSA-Graded-LOOK/154409188791?hash=item23f3813db7:g:9ZkAAOSwC1NgcafG&LH_Auction=1
and
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1959-Topps-Bennie-Daniels-PSA-VG-3-Graded-LOOK/154413257211?hash=item23f3bf51fb:g:3esAAOSwRuxgdaU5
I have to admit I am probably part of the problem. I have a 2016 rainbow going that I display on a wall, and I have been picking PSA 10 copies along the way with 12 currently. But then I got to thinking it would look better to have the whole thing graded. So I sent in 28 more to be encapsulated. Not really aiming for monetary gain here - just like the look. One of them is at best a 3, but I want the consistent look.
Any idea what is wrong with the Gossage to get a 3? I mean the centering is horrible, but not "3" horrible.
Perhaps a small wrinkle and centering...... It is OC so that is a two point downgrade.
Looking to BUY n332 1889 SF Hess cards and high grade cards from 19th century especially. "Once you have wrestled everything else in life is easy" Dan Gable
It's got to be a small crease or wrinkle. More than once I've seen a nice looking card in a low grade slab and buy it just because I have to know what's wrong with it. Almost every single time it's a crease that is invisible in the scans.
.Everything under the sun is being sent in, even if the sun doesn't shine there.
How about Nolan on a horse ?
Anyone need a PSA egg in their collection ?
If you're not into eggs, then how about some PSA hair.
Or you can have this PSA hair at the 6k asking price.
Or if PSA isn't busy with that King, they've been busy grading this guy.
How about a little GI Joe to make them busy ?
Or perhaps exploring jupiter in a PSA slab is your thing.
nb4 the exploring uranus #2 10 gets posted
That's actually a cool set.
Looking at totals by year, basketball is the sports category that jumped the most.
Total graded by year
Basketball
2017 180,910
2018 433,232
2019 868,636
Baseball
2017 313,931
2018 634,513
2019 522,157
Football
2017 114,645
2018 125,372
2019 123,933
My Guess based on Population Reports is most of the cards sent in, not from the last 5-7 years, were 1990 Fleer Michael Jordan's, 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas'.
Look at those HUGE Population numbers in PSA10 (and 9) anyone buying them at market price the past few months will likely not be happy in the future.
Singling out those 2 cards of course is bit o' tongue in cheek however it a great allegory for the extremely high volume of Junk Wax (nigh infinite supply in high grade) stuff being sent and their PSA10 counts growing by leaps and bounds. Demand only need drop a bit for that over populated Junk Wax stuff to begin and or continue it's free-fall. My advice is those holdin' that stuff unless for nostalgia reasons is to SELL SELL SELL!
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
To put some numbers on it, I saved the pop reports from five days ago and compared them to tody. So for a very short snapshot and just by sport and year:
Baseball: 18,543 new cards graded
Basketball: 27,991
Football: 6,645
Hockey: 1,196
Gaming: 10,734
1990 baseball had 706 new cards graded, and 1990 basketball had 393. Here's every sport/year where the pop increased by more than 1,000 in the last five days:
2018 Baseball: 1,969
2019 Baseball: 1,997
2020 Baseball: 4,564
1986 Basketball: 1,066
1996 Basketball: 1,605
2017 Basketball: 1,446
2018 Basketball: 3,642
2019 Basketball: 10,396
2020 Football: 2,097
1999 Gaming: 2.274
2000 Gaming: 1,366
2019 Gaming: 1,269
2020 Gaming: 1.695
So short answer, ultra-modern basketball and baseball, and Pokemon. Shocking I know!
very cool, alan!
is there a way to keep up w non-sports influxes?
not talking gaming. but more like star wars, gpk, marvel, rambo, nintendo, etc?
Yeah, it's just a matter of printing the page to PDF and copying it to Excel. I only did the categories I listed above but I can start tracking non-sport too.
cool and thank you! i'm just curious to see the numbers on all things non-sports. my inclination is there's a ton of these in the pipeline as well.
So somewhere in the (very rough) neighborhood of 12,000 cards per day? This should end all the arguments that PSA is not working as quickly as possible, though, sadly, not the arguments that they are moving TOO QUICKLY and making mistakes.
I think that we are going to see a lot of the junk wax era hit the market , now I only pay attention to a select few of the cards on the market but for example I have watched the 89 Topps traded Troy Akiman RC card and the populations for 10's has increased by 200 in a month.
Way overvalued even at half current going rate.
There is reason the junk wax era got it's name. The only reason the populations are not higher is for decades it was simply not worth the expense. Over the last year it became worth sending them in, due to backlog they are only starting to be released out to the hobby. Expect to see more over these overproduced cards listed on eBay every day.
As Euphoria portion of the bubble subsides and the concurrent number of PSA10 90 Leaf Frank Thomas' or 89 Score Troy Aikman's or 90 Fleer Jordan's increase on eBay the question is will prices sustain or increase? Economic tenant of supply and demand says no, unless in a asset bubble. Of course Bubbles always burst thus the name.
Buy what you like of course! But purchasing these high pop PSA10 Junk Wax era cards is not financially prudent for the future. If one is only a collector patience will save you coin. As for flippers getting caught without a seat when music stops is the risk they take. Lastly regarding dealers the smart ones will realize another Junk Wax bubble rather than wishing (or arguing) it isn't the case
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
dont want to get in to the bubble talk but you failed to mention that the overall way of collecting has changed. not near as many folks set collect anymore. they collect stock in the player. and each rookie card is 1 share. there’s a guy w a pic on IG showing 1 guy w over 200 of the leaf thomas 10s.
not saying the card wont roller coaster but with the rise in grading, psa being inherently tougher these days, i can pretty confidently say if a bubble pops those junk wax era cards wont be settling back down at $50/ vs $500/ price tags.
200 of the leaf thomas 10s.
Not really a selling point IMHO, more like something that proves bubble indicator.
If the person still has them in 2023 wonder if they will still be smilin'. Seems like for that coin really good blue-chip or chips could be purchased.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
again. your assuming he paid todays prices for them or didnt rip & sub himself. and considering he’s been doing this over the last 10 years, id say he’s doing pretty well. long steady growth isnt a bad thing. especially w what “steady” has done recently. overall and percentage wise, its probably much better than your avg blue chip has done. go ahead...throw out your “well ‘86 jordan response”. i’ll counter with..”well if he bought a koufax back in ‘12 he just be getting back to even” or “what if he bought the hendo 9 @$5k”? and the beat goes on...
regsrdless, no need to trample on the way the guy collects. theres more than 1 right way, ya know.
a lot of people, including myself would say that the 90 leaf set & the thomas are pretty damn iconic cards. not a bad option to go heavy on, imo either. he’s also had a pretty great career after baseball. so theres that too.
and who’s to say he doesnt have blue chips. would a clemente rookie qualify? thats posted too.
dude just happens to love the thomas card. he might not even sell them. it might be reason why the price has gone up. who knows. see curt flood.
This is the point I was getting at in my post. Now as far as bubbles and such I not very concerned about that as I purchase cards for my limited set collection with intention of just keeping. However saying that I did sell a few cards from this era and some other duplicates that I picked up on the way since prices were soaring which was enough to cover the cost of my entire collection plus some and reacquire a lower grade of the ones I sold which was nice.
Let's see the IG Thomas person obtain 200 1993 SP Jeter's in PSA 10...wait sec that's not possible. Therein lies the difference between Blue Chip and a Junk Wax era HUGE PSA Population card of which there are seemingly always several dozen for sale on eBay - just a matter of some mouse clicks then checkout.
How about If the same IG can locate and purchase 200 PSA 9's 1993 SP Jeter's. That would equal 33% and truly be impressive.
Nothing wrong with being a big fan of card but there that does not equate to a sound fiscal decisions.
Tell you what, rather than "argue" , every 6 months let us both revisit this topic and post the approx going rate of the 1990 LEAF Frank Thomas PSA10. I've have the very tenant of economics and time/patience on my side
Conversely inflation is not on my side 
We'll see...
P.S. When it drops to sub $170 (pretty much Dec 2020 price) again i will even buy another (my 2nd) then bemoan that purchase in this topic when it drops to below $150.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
The interesting thing to me on Thomas is how low the 9s will go. There are 2.6 9s for every 10. So as all of these subs come through the pop of 9s will keep going up even faster. For some reason collectors have less and less interest in those awful mere Mint cards. The 10 goes for a little more than 6x the 9. Will the 9 go down $1 for every $6 the 10 goes down - or will it go down faster than the current ratio.
again, assumptions. guy doesnt come across as a big shot whatsoever. thats his card, his ultimate pull as a kid. not sure why all the animosity about a guy you dont even know or the overall topic.
i seriously doubt the guy couldnt care less if the pop on it was 3 million. and there in lies your problem. youre only looking at all of this w dollar signs. dude just loves to collect.....cards, not dollars. again see curt flood.
feel free to check back in and tell me how better you did financially with whatever blue chip you got in on. ill respond w the “youre still missing the point but congratulations on all your financial success”, ok?
eta: and the thread is about what cards are clogging the system. if this guy is clogging the system w thousands of thomas cards he loves, ive got no problem w it and good for him.
and every thread needs a card:
My only point has been the economics of the huge PSA10 population 1990 Frank Thomas. Apologies if somehow what I wrote shows it was not. If you point is some people like the card then I do agree.
See you back here in 6 months !
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
prolly not.
Jan 2023 update LEAF Frank Thomas PSA10 is barely Scraping $170 at traditional auction. @blurryface is long since gone (banned) and the dude blurry mentioned on Instagram no longer brags about his 200 1990 PSA 10 Thomas'
Hey Blurry if you are reading this $170 is much closer to $50 than it is to $500
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Update: The 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas PSA10 and it's endless supply now barely scrapes $135 with several recent sales below $130. That places the going rate at pre-pandemic levels
I expect it to negatively breach $120 by Summer.
To those that scoffed in back in 2021 that somehow the card was a "good" "investment" i say HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Oh where oh where has blurryface's Instagram guy gone, oh where of where can he be...
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
These pricing threads are interesting to look back on and congrats on your correct prognostications, but I don't really see the need to try and rub things in the faces of members who are no longer here.
Yes, I do agree its poor form, but so too was being scoffed at in 2021 for relating basic economic principle of Supply and Demand. Still Two wrongs don't make right and point taken.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Yup no one else saw it coming.
No scoffing allowed… great….
Anybody interested in buying some gem mint beanie babies???
Live long, and prosper.
Assuming that's sarcasm and yep you are correct, however at least in 2021 nearly any voice stating basic economic principle and descriptions of what a bubble was on this forum was flamed.
Anyone with a modicum of fiscal acumen knew what would occur. Obviously that was not those purchasing 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas for $600, 1990 Fleer Shawn Kemps for $300, 1990 Fleer Michael Jordon's for $600, 1986 Erik Davis' at $600, or even stuff like 1989UD Griffey Jr's at $5000+ or 1993 SP Jeters at 24K or 1986 Jordon's at what 300K? 400K?
I also recall one thread here with some stating or agreeing that 1986 Donruss Jose Canseco's at $650 had great potential. Yeah great potential downwards, way downwards.
Supply and Demand always wins out in the long term.
The days of nearly every card in PSA (or others) Slab being hot or desirable are over. Only those very young have even chance of seeing anything similar in their lifetimes.
P.S. I did buy during the bubble. My purchases were mainly early-mid 1970's Topps and OPC Baseball and Topps FB HOF's in PSA9 most, but not all, of them have held or gone up. Supply and demand at work.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I think most that follow the hobby closely and were around in the 90s saw this coming. The new entrants got burned, but there are endless posts on this forum and others predicting a junk slab era. Hardly controversial that cards that went up 20x almost overnight would come off those ridiculous highs, was very clearly a bubble fuelled by speculators.