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Joe Orlando - The Tsunami of Cardboard
AFLfan
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For those interested in the volume of cards PSA is receiving right now, Joe Orlando's newest edition of Taking My Hacks discusses the subject.
Todd Tobias - Grateful Collector - I focus on autographed American Football League sets, Fleer & Topps, 1960-1969, and lacrosse cards.
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"backlog of several million" - hoooooooooooooo boy that's a lot of cards.
Half of those cards are 1990 Fleer Jordan’s.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
As long as they aren't 1990 Fleer Uribes.
You could start a good size home development with that much wood.
It only takes processing 5,479 cards each and every day, to complete 2 million cards in a year.
hey joe,
thanks for the insight and a little bit of transparency. it helps a bit. one thing i might urge you guys to consider is making it even more transparent. applaud you guys working thru the weekends, expanding and all of that. but perhaps cut out all of the fluff that is ctd's of std's and business days, expected days mixed with the confusion of received day but doesn't count until logged days and the pizza tracker & it's stages that, by psa's own published words, doesnt really equate to actual stages or time at all. some sit in R&I and blow straight to QA2 while others sit in grading for months. anyways, im getting off track here. i apologize.
long story short, cut out the need for a verbiage interpreter, the use of a ti-85 or super computer & having to go to a calendar to count the years next set of holidays and weekends (once they actually get logged, that is) and just give it to us straight.
for instance, "from the time your package is delivered it will be 11 months for value. 2 months for regular, 1.5 months for express". and dont understate your dates thinking it's the answer we want to hear. give us the real deal holyfield number of dates. set it and forget it instead of us living under this clout of "theres no rhyme or reason".
tell me it's gonna be 11 months for value right now, great! im good w/ that.
tell me it's now 2 months for express when it used to be 25ish days, well that sucks but i get it. it is what it is. i'll check back in 58 days. who am i kidding, it'll be everyday. but i wont be under the expectation for the first 59 days that it could be any day now.
even if you overstate the finish date by a month and the grades pop just 1 day prior to stated, im elated. thrilled. ecstatic. seriously. but when you tell me it's 8 months and all of sudden its been 10 months now and ive calculated & recalculated everything down to the leap year and im still no further to the truth, it sucks. be the best w/o the asterisk.
anyways, keep it simple but keep it realistic and honest.
never get confused.
-A. Subber
I notice after pricing raise. The subs are lowering a little bit. I use to sub day after day and the number of the subs from day to day , same hour, was over 5000 thousand. Now the number from one day to another same category same hour is about 1500, that number is assigned only when you make the last step before printing.
With the price increases, I’m surprised subs haven’t declined dramatically. Unless you’re a big time dealer that makes your living in cards, the prices are pretty unreasonable. I have cards I’d like to have graded, but I’m not interested in spending several thousand dollars only to wait a year. The brand of PSA is very strong right now, but what’s going on right now will put it to the test. The average collector has basically been priced out of getting their items graded PSA. Competitors should be licking their chops because it’s perfect conditions for someone to step up and grab market share.
This is the type of news Beckett and SGC want to hear. I think the huge amount of cards being submitted is good for all three companies. It’s a good problem to have for the companies. I was just thinking last night about switching to SGC for my next sub.Not because I want to, but just because PSA is so busy now. As a retired person I would hate to be that busy. I feel for all three companies. Time to create a new improved assembly line like the McDonalds brothers did in the 1950s.
People say they might send to other companies, but the bottom line is when you look to buy and sell a card, you look for PSA slab. I am 67 an want to be able to enjoy the cards, not wait a year, or pay hundreds of dollars to get one slabbed and returned. Unless I get a raw card from BBCE (if they sold those) I will only buy slabbed cards from now on. I am honestly happy for the company, but for me I do not have the money or time to get a card graded anymore.
People used to look for Ford and Chevy once also. Over time the consuming public can change their opinion based
on market conditions, or company performance and customer service. Who's to say that your PSA product may withstand
the test of time ? Unless someone here has a crystal ball, no one really knows.
If SGC or PSA were really smart they would take the risk of hiring a lot of people right now, and offer two week turnaround time on any submission. If I were SGC, I would pounce at the opportunity. But you have to be a risk taker and willing to have the vision plus the resources to take such risks.
If I were PSA, I would create a new assembly line with much more employees if they want to continue with their well deserved status in the industry. Ford created an assembly line. McDonald's created an assembly line. Both companies were able to increase volume and satisfy public demand.
Becket isn't any better. And they take your money up front, not when finished. I have a hard time with that. Here's my suggestion list that I have listed before based on owning a CPA firm:
1) Bigger bulk orders - at this point you need to put a de minimis on how much each order should be. In my opinion, processing $200 orders is a waste of time. It should at least $1,000 at this point. 75 cards = $1,000. 160 = $2,000, 275 = $3,000, 400 = $4,000, etc. Make it worth your time PSA, I don't do $50 tax returns.
2) Time frames. If 2016 - 2021 are the hottest years for gradding then have a price range and quantity for that. THen do 2000 - 2015, then do 1980 - 1999 and then 1979 and down. Have higher prices for the most used and then lower the price as the amount of each time period goes down. This allows older collectors to submit their cards without waiting months on the new stuff. Not everyone collects the new stuff. Have the graders staffed appropriately.
3) For the 1980 and up cards, if they don't grade at least a 7 don't encase them. Maybe older than that, 1972, maybe. If it's a HOFer or a top notch rookie card like Henderson then encase those, but encasing a 1982 fleer Paul molitor as a PSA 6 or 1979 Bert blyleven as a 6 is just a waste of time for PSA and the client.
If PSA can adopt many of these, i think it would help them and their clients. I like grading pre 2002 cards, mainly 70's and 80's, so why should someone like me want to wait behind all the 2021 orders.
Just my thoughts.
Very good post and i agree with all of it except the "don't slab under PSA 7 cards". A good friend has a PSA 4 card on his desk that he bought raw as a kid. That card is priceless to him because of sentimental value. Who's to say that should not be slabbed or is a.waste of time?
Steve
The Doomsday Collection
Dallas Cowboys Ring of Honor | All-Time Dallas Cowboys | Bob Lilly Master | Pro Football HOF Dallas Cowboys
And who determines if it is PSA 7 quality? For that determination to be made, the cards still needs to go through our receiving department, be properly identified and logged into the system. Then the grade is assessed and if it is not graded a 7, it still needs to move along with the rest of the order, be noted not to be slabbed, then be packaged, shipped, etc. Basically it would just skip the slabbing process and QC. That wouldn't really speed anything up and it would just upset people who paid for grading but essentially had an unrequested Min Grade forced upon them.
Also, I believe there is a price increase for ultra modern already, as that takes so much time to properly identify.
And we've hired a TON of people and are continuing to do so.
some of my most prized possessioned cards are psa 1 - 5s.
there are also many a psa 6s i'd take over psa 8s.
only slabbing 7+ seems like the epitome of buying the holder.
eta: i also think that would encourage more nefarious activities.
That's good in theory, but those Ford assembly line workers were essentially doing the exact same function day-in and day-out. Graders need to look at all sorts of different items and evaluate determining factors for each. Otherwise the process does move along much like an assembly line as there are people who function only in shipping/receiving, order input, spec, grading, slabbing and all of the other steps. There is no physical assembly line/conveyor belt, but the process is very similar.
I'm not saying this is what you are doing, but we often gets comments to our social media posts to the effect of "instead of posting, you should be grading our cards." I think there is a misconception or misunderstanding of the PSA process that leads people to believe that every PSA employee grades cards. That is not the case, and submitters would not want it to be. Each step in the process is handled by someone who has a focus. You would not want the folks in shipping to be grading your cards, just as you would not want the card graders to be packing your cards to be returned to you.
Truthfully, I am really impressed with the way PSA runs. When I first began working here, I really had no concept of the depth of the entire process. I find it quite impressive.
Ford and McDonald's are completely different types of companies, they exist at the low end of the value chain in the high end of the volume chain. In addition hiring people in California is a lot different than hiring people in Michigan in the 1910s You invest a lot of time,The benefit package is extremely expensive and it's hard to get rid of them alone pay the increased unemployment after you lose a percentage of them through natural attrition level loan a possible maybe even likely mass lay off as automation and reduced volume Kicks in. I can guarantee you that they have thought about these throw bodies at it strategy never checked it based on pretty sound rudimentary business principles
Also I would argue reading between the lines of Mr. Orlando's letter is the admission they have no idea when they're going to return to anything resembling a turnaround time that people would find acceptable
I just renewed my membership under the only option available, silver. In the same vein as Blurryface’s comments about clear timelines, I believe it is really odd to state on the website that PSA has “sold out” of platinum and gold memberships, as if adding specific numbers of grading vouchers to gold and platinum PSA membership tiers was ever a finite resource.
Just cut those two options from the website. PSA is owning the price increases it has made. Own the changes made to the membership structure as well, instead of spinning it as a supply/demand thing.
-Nathanael
The ultimate solution will be a mix of automation and human manual handling. Some parts of the process can be easily automated while others are not. In terms of grading cards, automation can assist the graders but you will always need humans to decipher the qualitative metrics of a card's grade.
McDonald's was the first company to come up with the fast food assembly line, which increased their profits by selling more items in a quicker amount of time. They were innovative, and Mr. Ford took their ideas and applied it to making cars.
PSA needs to have an innovative mind in their business model the way McDonald's did.
It's what sets great businesses apart in the business world. Those companies who can come up with innovative ways to increase profits while doing good for customers.
I was not comparing McDonald's and Ford to PSA. What I am saying is that those two companies came up with
ways to increase profits while keeping customers happy. PSA needs to have an innovative mind inside their company
the way McDonald's and Ford were innovative.
"McDonald's was the first company to come up with the fast food assembly line, which increased their profits by selling more items in a quicker amount of time. They were innovative, and Mr. Ford took their ideas and applied it to making cars."
Are you sure?
I'm not sure if that picture is an actual picture of PSA's 10 high speed processing lines, but if it is, the first thing that
comes to my mind is look at all the wasted space. Trust me, I'm trying to be helpful, not critical. I was once a paper boy who had favorite customers, and I would of hated to see Mr. Smith across town have to wait until 9pm to get his morning paper because my volume increased from a 20 paper route to a 10,000 paper route.
yes, the drive thru window was originally created for the horse n buggy. 😉
Meant to enhance your "if I were PSA, I would add a new assembly line" daydream.
I know that I am probably in the minority here, but I honestly have come to peace with PSA's turnaround times. I mostly submit "bulk", "value" or "monthly specials", and on average, there is about a 6-8 month turnaround time. 99.9% of my collection is for my PC, and my experience has been that by the time my card(s) come back, the potential ROI on the $9-10 fee is fairly significant. Are there some cards that come back and I think "why didn't that grade higher" ... sure. But their opinion is worth the wait and fee for me. My advice ... if having your collection is important to you (which it is for me), submit the cards that are important to you, ignore the "here's where your card is in the process", and just look forward to the excitement when your cards arrive.
verbiage is confusing. so with all 10 machines they do 30 cards per minute? or does each machine do 30 cards a minute and w/ 10 machines up in place, they are really doing 300 cards per minute.
but the "reduced pricing structure" is really confusing. where do i find this feature on the website?
The assembly line image just seems to be a stock image on the interwebs.. Do a google search on the image, the same image is used on a few websites and Facebook pages... The text, I don’t know where @OneDaysRide got it from. Maybe he/she made it up..
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
aha. we are just throwing charts & graphs out. ok..
Damn, the US is 2nd...
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
There must really something really special about “anything”, and something very off putting about “that”. Daryl Hall and John Oates graph and chart show the same outcomes for “anything” and “that”.
Card is in my PC, but I can make it available with interest this high
Do you have a scan of the back? LOL
Kingnascar's PSA Sets
Kingnascar's PSADNA Sets
Who are you to doubt that Ford got his 1913 assembly line idea from a company founded in 1955?
Isnt this good problem to have if you're PSA? Maybe PSA as business is perfectly okay or reassured by tsunami of other peoples' cards/properties sitting in their warehouse for years liken to farmers salting away harvests for winters ahead. PSA is not accountable to anyone and will move their goalposts further and further out with no fear or concerns from customers, competition. The abuse of market power is real. They are the Google of grading services and BGS/SGC is like Yahoo/Bing. Ultimate and sustainable solution going forward is for card grading become decentralized in some form and more liken to peer to peer grading via tech and creative thinking. Such will require some dedicated/innovative individuals w/credibility in the community & marketplace. Until then....
Grading newb here.... but surprised optical equipment and software have not been developed to evaluate cards... to scan and grade the card. Would take away some subjectivity and definitely speed up the process. Can still have a human do a 2nd QC check.
I believe, one of the new up and comers makes the robotics/optical/software claim, but has not provided much in the way of detail regarding how.
An alternative to the robot and optical tech method could be one where card submission packages, with little weight, are overnighted to China. Like Apple's business model, 800,000 workers, each making 38 cents a day and living in massive card grading concrete high rise compounds, will immediately open, enter, research via internet and card company databases, then grade given any parameters they are instructed to follow, slab and ship back overnight -- all with a 5 day turnaround, at roughly $1 a card.
No thanks. Lol
The Doomsday Collection
Dallas Cowboys Ring of Honor | All-Time Dallas Cowboys | Bob Lilly Master | Pro Football HOF Dallas Cowboys
you can request anything you want....but you cant request that.
Was wondering about that myself?
YeeHaw!
Neil
When does that sweet Loaf NFT drop?
we have to ask Ma!
That is the wrong back for that PSA label front. This must be fake.
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
Reading this thread about Ford, McDonalds and the assembly line made me think of a great joke I heard Bill Hicks make one time. A little background? Denis Leary is a good actor and good joke teller but also a bad joke thief. Anyhow, he and Hicks were pretty good friends until one night, Hicks caught Leary doing his act on stage. Not a joke but like, the act. So when Bill Hicks was asked about Leary stealing material from him, he said:
There’s a lot of stuff going around and here’s the truth: I stole Denis’ act from him and to really throw everyone off? I did it first.
He grinned and then never really talked about it again.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
The issue I have is, in this market, waiting 8-10 months means a lot of risk on the submitter's end.
I've had a card with them for 10 months now, that if it comes back as altered or with a qualifier, I will likely never be able to afford a replacement, because prices have gone up so much.
Lots of sellers here have talked about having to sweat out a bull market, when they're just waiting around instead of being able to sell at the most opportune time.
There has to be some honest appraisal of whether submitting is worth it for every collector - and a realistic timeframe is a huge part of that calculation for many.
Tsunamis, McDonald’s, Ford, Meatloaf, robots, and Bill Hicks. Is that a wrap? I mean, are we done here? If so blurry wins again with the sweet loaf graph. The timing was amazing.
something to consider: the rise in grading costs are commensurate with the appreciation in card prices, therefore i personally don't foresee PSA catching up anytime soon while this bull is still charging. even if it bangs off some resistance i don't think there will be much of a slowdown. best-case scenario, it's gonna be an excruciatingly gradual process.
e.g., i recently found some 2009-10T hoops cards (Curry, Harden, DeRozan) that had been taking a Rip Van Winkle-esque nap in a box. then i sauntered over to eBay to check current market values. then i soiled myself. then i had them at the post office the very next morning. destination: California. neither the time nor cost mattered one iota........it was the only move to make. i bid those cards adieu and said c-ya again in '22.
i anticipate a lot of this with the status quo