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Why did gold fail?
cohodk
Posts: 18,621 ✭✭✭✭✭
In another thread Derryb posted that several companies have purchased bitcoin as an alternative to holding cash, or to speculate or hedge on future "events".
So why did gold fail to be the alternative? 6000 years of historical relevence overtaken by something that cant be seen or held let alone have practical use such as in electronics....they very things that make bitcoin possible.
Why havent institutions embraced gold?
Does bitcoin just have a better marketing campaign?
Are the benefactors of bitcoins success more powerful than those of gold?
How and why did gold fail?
Excuses are tools of the ignorant
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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I'm not so sure that it "failed." It may not be up as much as b.c., but as the saying goes: "what goes up will come down." B.C appears to be the latest fad embraced by the speculators. This fad will also fade after the bubble bursts....and it will.
Fads come and go. Tulip bulbs, beanie babies, doggie coins, slabbed limited edition emergency MS70 modern bullion, etc. My guess is 6000 years from now people will still be talking about and hoarding gold.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
It is an interesting question, especially when posed that way.
Why haven't institutions embraced gold (in particular, versus bitcoin)? I don't think it is possible to point to a single factor, but here are a few:
-- Barring an imminent remonetization, it is hard to make a strong case for gold significantly outperforming inflation over a mid or long term horizon. At least in the mid-term, there are plausible stories supporting bitcoin.
-- Related to this, gold does in fact have a very long track record...of tracking inflation. This is not great as an investment. Apart from someone who believes they can market time, or someone who believes we are nearing a currency crisis, why would anyone buy such a thing?
-- There is undoubtedly some peer pressure against gold. If I go to the investment people at Mass Mutual and suggest that they put $ 100 million into gold, I may get some weird stares.
-- If you really want to hold gold for the long term, there's a bit of infrastructure required.
-- It would appear possible to forecast the future supply of bitcoin with reasonable accuracy. In the case of gold, central banks hold vast quantities that could become available to the market.
-- Bitcoin is in vogue.
It would be a very interesting exercise to develop a Bayesian model to forecast the price of bitcoin over the next 5 or so years. My guess is that many forecasts with such a model would show a significant growth in value. In spite of this belief, I am not a buyer ...
Internet technology and the Cloud have transformed the world of financial transactions in ways revolutionary and irreversible, since the days of King Croesus. IMHO, Bitcoin is just the beginning with future directions unknow, beyond the certain deaths of metal coinage and paper currency as common means of exchange.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Exposure to global markets and purchasing/paying behavior....Asia is ridiculously heavy digital payments. I have colleagues in Asia that haven't touched cash or even a card in years - all phone pay. Move some to coin, watch it go up, watch your purchasing power increase where taken as payment.
Because for most institutional investors gold is not an alternative. Even if it were, one only needs to look at returns of both gold and cryptos to know where the best returns currently lie. It's not like these institutions are replacing previous gold buying decisions with crypto buying, they don't have a history of buying gold. While cryptos may be replacing gold's glitter on the individual speculator/investor radar, they are not replacing gold at the institutional level. The relevant question is "just what are these institutional crypto purchases replacing?" Bonds? Stock buybacks? They definitely don't speak well of the dollar's anticipated future as we know cash reserves are being replaced by cryptos.
Institutions likely don't want and have never wanted the hassle of owning or the costs of storing gold. And, they apparently see less risk with cryptos over paper gold products and over holding a devaluing currency (cash). Historically cryptos are proving to be the better play and a much better alternative to cash, at least in the short and intermediate term. Long term and maybe even intermediate term crypto results remain at the mercy of potential regulation that could prove to be a major setback to the crypto industry.
India is poised to ban all crypto mining, trading and holding. I do not expect this to occur but it is a shot across the bow. Crypto players would be wise to keep an ear close to the regulatory ground.
Even a rumor of regulation can be destructive. At some point look for the FED, FDIC or CTFC to "jawbone" a threat of regulation simply to slow, if not set back, the crypto momentum. These agencies hold the power plug that allows the music to keep playing. If cryptos continue to draw participation of institutions and of "elite" whales it will be harder to attack crypto holders with regulation as there will be powerful opposition. If nothing else these favored parties will likely get the "whisper" and we will see a major selloff that will serve as a warning of coming regulation. Crypto holders should quickly follow the lead of any rapid, massive selloffs. One can always buy back when rumor is challenged with fact.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
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End Systemic Elitism - It Takes All Of Us
Like the stock market, you still own it, you just don't have access without electricity. Applies to all electronic financial services.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
crypto is not a replacement for bullion it has no intrinsic value nor any actual physical existence in the material world
The place we live , possession being 9 tenths they say
for the ultimate SHTF scenario imaginary wealth is as useful as the guns in a video game would be for personal defense
There might be a limited amount of the first and most famous "crypto", but there is an Infinite supply of "other" cryptos.
Things in unlimited supply, or with an unlimited supply of an alternative, never hold their value over the long run.
Never.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Depends on the reason for holding the bullion. If as an investment, cryptos, so far, have proven to be a much much better investment.
If holding gold for the long term would you not have done better to sell your holdings a year ago, buy bitcoin, sell the bitcoin now (or later), and then repurchase much more gold?
Intrinsic value is a way of describing the perceived or true value of an asset. What is gold's true value?
Gold is money. Money has no intrinsic value. Any intrinsic value of gold would be determined by is desired properties as a metal, and those are nowhere near its perceived value.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
If bitcoin didnt go from 5000 to 50,000 would institutions have any interest?
If bitcoin only reasonably tracked inflation would it even be on a company's radar?
Just seems curious to me that for decades and decades, gold never showed up on corporate balance sheets, yet a "virtual asset" is suddenly accepted. Something quite strange going on here.
Could the acceptance of bitcoin finally usher in the acceptance of gold?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
no, no and no
The FED has added "virtual" value to most investments by making money to purchase them "easy." Isn't anything over a stock's book value really just "virtual?" Take away the easy money and see what happens to value.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
sorta like dollars?
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
.> @derryb said:
No. A stock can throw off an income stream which has value. The value of a stock can measure assets of a company that are not included in book value such as the creativity and effeciency of its employees. Stock value can also measure competitive advantage and barriers to entry.
So you dont think this open invitation of accepting alternative assets on a corporate balance sheet will be extended to gold? Why not? If its good enough for Joe 6pack and central banks, why wouldnt it be acceptable to other institutions?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
India is buying Gold and Russia are buying Gold. Why aren't they trying to buy some of the 21,000,000 bitcoins (some of which haven't even been "mined" yet)?
Gold didn't go down, the USD strengthened due to the rise in bond yields. All temporary. Gold (money) always wins. All fiat currencies lose. Bitcoin is a fiat currency.
Yes. Not a fan of putting a high % of net worth in cash or cash equivalents either, but prefer those to purely digital "assets"
Stock in companies that produce and sell valuable patented products, ), nice (good location and cash flow positive) rental real estate, and tangible assets such as rare coins, vehicles, guns, older art and artifacts.. these all make sense to me...
Then again, I'm in my 50's.
Young folks and old fogies can afford to gamble.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
@thefinn said: "Bitcoin is a fiat currency"
It shares certain attributes with a fiat currency, but it differs from a fiat currency in material ways.
"Income stream" is just a fancy name for interest earned on your investment in the company, not really any different from your interest earnings on bank deposits. Book value of a company is a measure of its tangible assets found on its balance sheet. Any other added value gives you market value of the company. Market value includes intangible (perceived/virtual) assets that lack the physical substance that tangible assets carry. This perceived value is determined and redetermined continuously by those who buy and sell the company's stock. Unlike fixed physical assets, this perception is subject to minute by minute fluctuations that result in stock price volatility. As demonstrated by FED interference, flooding the market with investment funds recklessly drives up perceived value. With the recent flood of money directly into the hands of the small investor we will likely seeing this recklessness affect cryptos as well as these individuals "double down" their stimulus check.
And yes, crypto prices have no real book value and are based purely on perception and expectation. This high risk has blinded many investors to now proven profit potential. Will the music stop? Of course, but not likely today.
Corporate acceptance of cryptos is not an open invitation for most corporate balance sheets to include gold for the same reasons they have never included gold - acquisition, storage and disposal expenses. They might as well invest in a fleet of classic cars. The fact that they are choosing cryptos over paper gold amplifies their perceived risk differences between the two investments. Corporate balance sheets typically hold disposable financial assets for a good reason - they are easy to dispose of. Cryptos have joined this list, gold will not.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Bitcoin is a finite pile of digital Gold. This would explain its value, its allure and its adoption.
Loves me some shiny!
Your characterization of stock market valuation is completely wrong but we'll leave that for another time.
So why are companies so quick to buy bitcoin now? Microstrategy has held hundreds of millions in cash on their balance sheet for almost 2 decades. They could have bought gold. Same for many other companies. Its never "disposable". Why didnt companies at least put a little money into gold?
Why dont companies believe gold is a "store of value" in the same way they believe in bitcoin?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So gold has less value because it is physical and can be dug out of the ground?
How is bitcoin "digital gold"?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Is gold's history, its shortcoming?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Maybe they finally see the writing on the wall for "cash." Something that many of us here have seen for quite a while.
Maybe they do. I gave my explanation of why companies avoid gold earlier. Has Microstrategy's investment decision been proven a bad one? Appears they know strategy.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I think the concrete examples are useful. Tesla bought bitcoin for a variety of reasons. One stated reason is diversification of cash holdings. In theory, gold could have served this purpose as well. However they also intend to allow bitcoin as a means of payment for their product. Gold would be a less likely choice for this purpose. Also clearly there is some branding and publicity value. In aggregate, bitcoin just works better for Tesla than gold.
Looks like Printing Press Powell reads my posts.
Fed Chair Powell: 'Crypto is substitute for gold not U.S. dollar'
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-03-22/Bitcoin-is-a-speculative-asset-the-new-gold-not-a-substitute-for-the-U-S-dollar-Fed-s-Jerome-Powell.html
Loves me some shiny!
And this is why there is hope that the regulators will go easy on development of crypto regulation. I'm sure the FED and all the other money masters love seeing it steal gold's glitter.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Maybe try to buy Bitcoin, or other big moving cryptos that are accepted payment methods, let the price rise, then profit take and buy gold. Of course, timing and insider trading are very important here. Many internet PGM sites already accept a couple different cryptos. I personally do not mess with Bitcoin, Ether, and i tend to stay away from PoW blockchains and PoS blockchains cost too much. I am however heavily invested in XRP Ripple. It performs a valuable and almost instantaneous task of transferring currencies and assets. What “job” does Bitcoin actually do? It actually takes about 10 minutes to settle and sucks so much energy to mine it, and thats no good for most of us. XRP, no energy consumption and cannot be mined. I also like silver right now, especially when it comes to the production of solar panels. Can any crypto do that?? If gold has failed, why do so many central banks and institutions own it? My hunch is that the good old US fed and the elite powers that pretty much rule everything, are keeping the price of gold suppressed. The USD is not in a good place and is not backed by gold or really anything, much like Bitcoin! Just print more trillions when they need it. The USD is going to bankrupt the USA, how can it not. Insert the National Debt Clock here. The BRIC nations have been on a gold buying spree for years, why? I am long gold, silver, XRP, farmland, and fresh water! Ok, now i am ready to get lambasted up one side and down the other! Bring it!
Regarding the amassing of debt and the conviction that stodgy consequences such as inflation no longer apply because interest rates are low, I've often find myself recalling the (Herbert) Stein Law:
“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Sure wish the premiums of this so called "failed" metal would come down. I'm sitting on a substantial amount of cash from 6 months of gutter metal sales and I sure would like to convert it into something real. Let me know how much failed metal you are ready to move. At the right price I'm interested. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Gold will be fine.
Per Jim Cramer: "Gold is subject to too many vicissitudes. It's subject to mining issues. It's frankly subject to failing in many cases."
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-03-24/-5-in-gold-5-in-bitcoin-Jim-Cramer-tells-investors-to-drop-half-of-their-gold.html
If you're a contrarian to Cramers "fortune tellings"...this may be the time to buy some gold
It's the "greater fool theory." Buyers of Bitcoin are increasingly enthusiastic thinking Bitcoin is becoming mainstream. They think that they will be able to sell it to a "greater fool" at a higher price as this move towards acceptance continues. Bitcoin goes hand in hand with Tesla, Zoom Video, Gamestop etc.
Bitcoin makes one money until it doesn't. Why do people fear what they do not understand?
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I think some> @derryb said:
I think they do understand it. And if they are scared, its for others, not themselves.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Then I appreciate their concern. lol
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Gold's history is its strength, its only strength. It is a very strong strength as its vaue has weathered (and strengthened) during centuries of conflict and uncertainty.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Give me gold fack bitcoin, fack the bulgarians. Thanks!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
did: past tense - it's happened... what's happened
fail - definite conclusion.
cohodk: can you cite some credible sources that deem gold has failed and also I'm curious when it failed. Can you provide that approx date?
.> @MsMorrisine said:
Gold failed to become an accepted asset on corporate balance sheets. For hundreds of years it has been ignored by institutions sitting on huge cash stockpiles. Then along comes some videogame money and institutions trip over themselves to get some.
Why did gold with 1000s of years of history fail to become a recognized and acceptable asset for the trillions of dollars sitting in bank accounts while a newcomer that is barely a decade old is welcomed?
The failure I allude to is its lack of acceptance by big money. Apple, google, microsoft, cisco sit on almost $1 trillion in cash, but i dont think they own 1 ounce of gold. Is gold irrelevant?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Gold is a great thing to sew into your garments if you're a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939," said Munger, Warren Buffett's long-serving No.2 at the $204 billion insurance and investment company, "but I think civilized people don't Buy Gold. They invest in productive businesses."
Reputedly the world's second-richest man just behind his friend Bill Gates, Warren Buffett has long warned investors not to Buy Gold, telling a CNBC interview this weekend that "a productive asset of any kind, a decent productive asset, is going to kill a non-productive asset over time.
"I will guarantee you that farmland, over a hundred years, is going to beat gold, and so are equities," said Buffett – now 81, and recently diagnosed with early-stage cancer – adding the caveat that "in any given one-year period, five-year period, any asset can outperform another asset."
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/buy-gold-050820122
Just seems curious to me that for decades and decades, gold never showed up on corporate balance sheets, yet a "virtual asset" is suddenly accepted. Something quite strange going on here.
Gold shows up on the central banks' balance sheets, and on the IMF's as a Tier I Asset, which was previously a Tier II Asset - meaning that it is valued at 100% of market value. Why the change on the part of the IMF?
"Gold is money, all else is credit." - JP Morgan congressional testimony. "He who holds the gold makes the rules" various sources.
It seems clear to me that crypto promoters simply want to change the rules in their favor, which is just another manifestation of human nature. The same situation applied with Gamestop - the Gamestop longs were fighting against the odds in hopes of overturning an entrenched system that favors insiders. In the case of crypto, believers in crypto are going up against the entrenched and corrupt marriage of banks & bought-off politicians. Outcome uncertain.
In the case of gold, the central bankers and politicians have rendered gold a pesky thorn in the side of their control paradigm and holding tons of gold as "backup" is insurance for the time when the bloom is off their printed and keystroked imaginary fiat currency.
We live in interesting times.
I knew it would happen.
It's really really consolidating these days
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
why did real estate fail?
1 trillion in cash and none are investing in real estate.
that measure of "failure" is narrower than a razor blade.
and I'm still wondering when this gold failure happened.
Gold hasn't failed as a store of value.
To answer the OP, in my own case, gold has not failed "as an alternative to holding cash", so what's the question?
Then again, markets can stay irrational longer than most people can remain liquid.
I knew it would happen.
Ummmm....maybe REIT. Maybe the words "property" and "plant" appear on almost every balance sheet?
Why dont companies with cash on the balance sheet buy gold? It has failed to be accepted. Why?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What happens when electronics fail?