Well, there's a whole other argument that could be had here. If the best "coin investment" is not the coins but the businesses behind the coins...
This is my opinion. Dealers make money year in and year out or else they go out of business. I presume more of them would buy and hold if they thought it was more profitable to do so.
The most successful store owner that I know explained his business philosophy to me.
"Chuck, if you're buying- I'm selling.
If you're selling then I'm buying"
Buy everything and know how to send the unwanted stuff down the road. It takes supreme knowledge, liquidity and contacts. Don't burn your bridges.
As an average collector, I just look for coins that I like which have low survival numbers that are reasonably priced.
I look at seated half dimes as coins which are criminally undervalued in all grades. That series is somewhat unpopular with collectors, but the survival estimates are low even on common dates.
@291fifth said:
If you are paying retail then you can forget about it being an investment. Think like a dealer and buy like a dealer.
You might end up with a bunch of junk like a dealer too.
Successful dealers don't end up with a bunch of junk because they don't buy junk. A successful dealer knows the market and he knows how to "read" potential buyers and sellers.
Disagree. There's junk in every deal. Successful dealers know how to price out the deal so they can dispose of what's considered junk quickly.
Got a barn full of junk? Let me introduce you to Coleman Foster. He's got six seats filled at his table and a couple more standing waiting. Likely 99% of his inventory is under $500 and he will figure a circ Lincoln set in the album, pricing various $22 dollar coins for which he paid $8 at a still useful $14. He will have five varied sets of these at one time. Numerous no-grades, presentable and otherwise. I'm not sure if he's still around, but the very solid Walt Ankerman used to do this on the West Coast. Most the stuff (and it is stuff) these guys handle aren't worth a slabbing.
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
@291fifth said:
If you are paying retail then you can forget about it being an investment. Think like a dealer and buy like a dealer.
You might end up with a bunch of junk like a dealer too.
Successful dealers don't end up with a bunch of junk because they don't buy junk. A successful dealer knows the market and he knows how to "read" potential buyers and sellers.
Disagree. There's junk in every deal. Successful dealers know how to price out the deal so they can dispose of what's considered junk quickly.
Got a barn full of junk? Let me introduce you to Coleman Foster. He's got six seats filled at his table and a couple more standing waiting. Likely 99% of his inventory is under $500 and he will figure a circ Lincoln set in the album, pricing various $22 dollar coins for which he paid $8 at a still useful $14. He will have five varied sets of these at one time. Numerous no-grades, presentable and otherwise. I'm not sure if he's still around, but the very solid Walt Ankerman used to do this on the West Coast.
We actually don't disagree at all. There just seems to be somewhat different interpretation of what "junk" consists of.
If it is readily saleable it is not "junk". Knowing the price at which items become saleable is the key to success. Coleman Foster had apparently mastered this art.
I’ve been an astute investor for years. My friends would tell me they had an investment in their house. I told them a house is not an investment, it’s an asset plain and simple. If your house is worth $250k and you sell it you still have to buy another to live in. If you choose the exact same type of house you will pay $250k. Simple economics.
(Please don’t confuse downsizing, apartment living etc with making money. It’s not relevant. )
If you purchase coins, they are also an asset or a tradable commodity just like silver bars or gold.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@291fifth said:
If you are paying retail then you can forget about it being an investment. Think like a dealer and buy like a dealer.
You might end up with a bunch of junk like a dealer too.
Successful dealers don't end up with a bunch of junk because they don't buy junk. A successful dealer knows the market and he knows how to "read" potential buyers and sellers.
Disagree. There's junk in every deal. Successful dealers know how to price out the deal so they can dispose of what's considered junk quickly.
Got a barn full of junk? Let me introduce you to Coleman Foster. He's got six seats filled at his table and a couple more standing waiting. Likely 99% of his inventory is under $500 and he will figure a circ Lincoln set in the album, pricing various $22 dollar coins for which he paid $8 at a still useful $14. He will have five varied sets of these at one time. Numerous no-grades, presentable and otherwise. I'm not sure if he's still around, but the very solid Walt Ankerman used to do this on the West Coast.
We actually don't disagree at all. There just seems to be somewhat different interpretation of what "junk" consists of.
If it is readily saleable it is not "junk". Knowing the price at which items become saleable is the key to success. Coleman Foster had apparently mastered this art.
We still disagree. There is no junk whatsoever, just coins owned by people who don't how to price them in order to sell them easily. It's called due diligence.
At the right price, dreck is a good deal.
Holed Bust $1 at $300 anyone? 800 AG Indian cents at the same number?
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
@JRGeyer said:
As an average collector, I just look for coins that I like which have low survival numbers that are reasonably priced.
I look at seated half dimes as coins which are criminally undervalued in all grades. That series is somewhat unpopular with collectors, but the survival estimates are low even on common dates.
Usually when I hear the term "popular", it's measured by the size of the collector base. Liberty Seated can't be relatively popular in this sense due to supply constraints. I almost exclusively collect one Latin America series (multiple mints and denominations) and it's never going to be "popular" by this measure either.
Financially, the difficulty with Liberty Seated becoming substantially more valuable is that (1) it's concurrently scarce compared to most US coinage, (2) a complete series is not affordable to very many collectors, (3) most collectors prefer more variety, and yes, (4) the design only has a slightly above average preference. Other designs with a higher preference with dates which are generically more common have much of the demand from type sets and/or die variety collectors, neither of which is enough to noticeably increase demand for Liberty Seated coinage.
What I wrote also applies to the series I collect, except that it's not US and it's also noticeably scarcer.
I view my coin collection as part of my Entertainment Fund and I budget for it accordingly. Much like going to the movies... only, I can take coins out and look at them at any time. I can also expect to recoup some of this fund at a later date when I sell... try doing that with Ishtar!
Collecting: Dansco 7070; Middle Date Large Cents (VF-AU); Box of 20;
There is no good answer to this question. Someone posted recently prices of before and after the crash twenty, thirty years ago. Nothing was safe then and that will mostly continue.
Anything I have can be dumped tomorrow, but little will be on the upside.
As far as the dealer tangent it's an online world for the vast majority. No one is going to do a start up in Seattle where a tiny store front rent would pass what you hoped to gross in sales.
Many coming in bourse room can only afford collector coins (what many call junk). One guy had junk box of world coins, all nicely labeled in 2x2’s. - 6 for a dollar. It appeared to be one of the most successful venues at the show. He told me he had sold about 320 of those at last show. Helps show expenses. G-VG Barbers a good high demand area in this too.
If a dealer is buying estates it can be a take it all deal to get the buy. Consequently one accumulates the good, the bad, and the ugly.
As far as my stance on churning coins they don’t pay interest or dividends and one needs experience on both sides of ball whether investor or dealer.
@Cougar1978 said:
Many coming in bourse room can only afford collector coins (what many call junk). One guy had junk box of world coins, all nicely labeled in 2x2’s. - 6 for a dollar. It appeared to be one of the most successful venues at the show. He told me he had sold about 320 of those at last show. Helps show expenses. G-VG Barbers a good high demand area in this too.
If a dealer is buying estates it can be a take it all deal to get the buy. Consequently one accumulates the good, the bad, and the ugly.
As far as my stance on churning coins they don’t pay interest or dividends and one needs experience on both sides of ball whether investor or dealer.
I honestly dont know anyone on these forums who call any coins "junk"
I think one missing aspect when a thread arises that discusses coins in terms of investments is "skill". To be really good at making money at any type of investment generally is really hard to do. That is why most professional money managers dont beat the S and p 500. Why most day traders fail. Taking it a bit farther why only a small percentage of poker players win consistently, etc. Being able to find, evaluate, buy at the right price and sell at the right price coins takes someone to not only work really hard to educate themselves but to also network.
Most people cant do it just like most people cant beat the s & p 500. And that is why buying an index fund makes sense for most people (not everyone) when it comes to investing because it is easy. It acknowledges our limitations.
Get about 20 Red Books spread out between 1940s-present. Then buy a ream or two of graph paper, some pencils and a ruler. Devote about 1,000 hours to this. You just might get an idea or two.
My $86 V75 ASE is looking pretty good. Paid $25 for PR70 grading. Also graded 70s on my RFK commemorative set which will return quite nicely.
Other than that, I always buy slabbed (I don't trust my eye), and use CW, PCGS, and NCG price guides to show me a fair cost. I then look for those Ebay coins that are priced less than the guides suggest. I also watch the TV coin shows to learn about coins and series. I very rarely buy anything from them, but sometimes they will have a good deal.
Hi jm, I got my W's from rolls when they were still sell on eBay for good money. I sold rolls with W enders for big cash. One $10 roll sold for $129! I made relations at local banks and grocery store like Safeway, they would call me when they got new (boxes) of quarters in... I sold over 200 coins at ~70% profit.
I struck while the iron was hot... And I filling my Peace Dollar collection with my earning. Thanks Joe
Hi jm, I got my W's from rolls when they were still sell on eBay for good money. I sold rolls with W enders for big cash. One $10 roll sold for $129! I made relations at local banks and grocery store like Safeway, they would call me when they got new (boxes) of quarters in... I sold over 200 coins at ~70% profit.
I struck while the iron was hot... And I filling my Peace Dollar collection with my earning. Thanks Joe
That's great. But the question was what to acquire now for later. If you look at the price of the 1996-W dime, W quarters have likely peaked.
I seriously doubt that. If you can get them for face value that's another thing entirely, but I can say that about lots and lots of coins.
Hi Deltex, well, doubt away, between 2019 and 2020, I sold 213 W Coins for a "net" profit of $3182.
I remove 95% myself from rolls, so at face value. Thank you, Joe
Yes. Thank you. That is my entire point. If you can get them at face value and sell them for $15 each, that's a great deal. Similarly, if you can get Saints at $20 you're going to make a lot of money. The question is, is it a good investment to buy W-quarters right now at $15 in lightly uncirculated grades, say AU 58 to MS 63?
I seriously doubt that. If you can get them for face value that's another thing entirely, but I can say that about lots and lots of coins.
Hi Deltex, well, doubt away, between 2019 and 2020, I sold 213 W Coins for a "net" profit of $3182.
I remove 95% myself from rolls, so at face value. Thank you, Joe
Yes. Thank you. That is my entire point. If you can get them at face value and sell them for $15 each, that's a great deal. Similarly, if you can get Saints at $20 you're going to make a lot of money. The question is, is it a good investment to buy W-quarters right now at $15 in lightly uncirculated grades, say AU 58 to MS 63?
No. it's not,
The question is, is it a good investment to buy W-quarters right now at $15 in lightly uncirculated grades, say AU 58 to MS 63?
We're probably getting wrapped around the axle on this but this is just my opinion The OP maybe posing an impossible question.
We could start an entire thread on what you (we) consider "HOLD for a long time". And I get it, this is probably not what the OP was referring to.
Assuming these guys found these W's in rolls from banks, (and most of them did) I would consider a "week" HOLDING for a long time.
Interesting thread....my main quibble would be to rename it "Best Coin Speculation To Make"
As most of you probably know, it is very tough to make an investment case for coins. Maybe some of you have generated competitive results to stocks, bonds, real estate, or running a business....but that's the exception rather than the rule just like active management beating passive management in the stock market. And that's not surprising, since this is a HOBBY and not a wealth-generation activity.
I've RARELY seen any post-1970 investments generate double-digit returns comparable to stocks or in the neighborhood of bonds for any time period, let alone rolling time periods where you eliminate timing bias. The numbers seem to congregate for Trophy Coins at about 7% annualized, give-or-take.
The 1933 Saint....Liberty Head Double Eagles....the 1908-S Norweb Saint (one of David Akers' favorite coins)....most of my analyses focused on gold coins and double eagles in particular. Could be some niches in smaller denomination gold or non-gold U.S. coiins that I overlooked, but I think the basic problem is this: having to rely SOLELY on capital appreciation, as coins don't throw off dividends or interest, means that they have a big headwind to compete with equities over the long haul.
For those of you older than me able to buy coins pre-1970 (either gold or silver coins or other series that benefitted later from demographic tailwinds), you might be able to say otherwise depending on when you bought and/or sold.
One coin that did stand out was the 1850 Proof Liberty Head DE that Bass purchased in the early-1970's for about $3,000. I believe it returned just over 12% annualized when it was sold, one of the few double-digit gains I saw over a multi-decade period for any coin, gold or non-gold.
Best or safest? Best is raw silver and gold, including bullion and junk silver. Over short terms gold and silver go ip and down, but over the long term it's upward trajectory, and will never be worth zero. Numismatic value coins are market dependent and can lose value to just the value of the silver or gold in them, whereas current numismatic values are usually far above the raw value. One possible exception to this rule would be very rare coins. But even those are some risk if someone finds a new Hoard with a bunch of those coins, for example.
Well, there's a whole other argument that could be had here. If the best "coin investment" is not the coins but the businesses behind the coins...
This is my opinion. Dealers make money year in and year out or else they go out of business. I presume more of them would buy and hold if they thought it was more profitable to do so.
Holding coins cost money. As you say moving inventory is a part of a lot of business... Otherwise they will go under. There are probably some exceptions but generally speaking, holding won't be profitable enough.
I have made profits buying better date undervalued coins which are attractive. This takes some patience, but here is one way to do this:
Look at PCGS pop reports and CAC reports as well if you prefer CAC coins, noting populations.
Look for coins that for your given price range (using PCGS prices) in a certain grade have the lowest population at PCGS, within a series. Price and condition are up to you.
Not all coins in a grade are worth the same, but use PCGS prices as a rough idea of price. Looking at auction results for verification makes this even more accurate, but it takes more effort.
The two main stats for population are 1) How many in all grades 2) How many are finer than a coin in this grade.
Verify your numbers (population) against NGC.
There are some real disparities between rarity and price if you look.
Some series are less active, but this will protect an investment in your series of choice or provide some gains.
I've done this with Seated Coins of all denominations and Liberty $5.00.
I love type sets, but feel that additional effort is useful to not just pick the most common date. You'll often have to pay a touch more for the much less common date, but I feel it is worth it.
Example
1904 $20 2,000,000 exist in all grades, 312,000 BU coins - MS-60 $2500 MS 63 $2650 (PCGS prices, an approximation)
1906 $20 2,000 exist in all grades,1000 BU coins MS-60 $3000, MS-61 $3500, it gets much more expensive in higher grades.
I would go with a nice 1906 whether it be AU58+ or MS-61. This coin is much less sensitive to bullion prices.
However not everyone feels this way.
@semikeycollector said:
I have made profits buying better date undervalued coins which are attractive. This takes some patience, but here is one way to do this:
Look at PCGS pop reports and CAC reports as well if you prefer CAC coins, noting populations.
Look for coins that for your given price range (using PCGS prices) in a certain grade have the lowest population at PCGS, within a series. Price and condition are up to you.
Not all coins in a grade are worth the same, but use PCGS prices as a rough idea of price. Looking at auction results for verification makes this even more accurate, but it takes more effort.
The two main stats for population are 1) How many in all grades 2) How many are finer than a coin in this grade.
Verify your numbers (population) against NGC.
There are some real disparities between rarity and price if you look.
Some series are less active, but this will protect an investment in your series of choice or provide some gains.
I've done this with Seated Coins of all denominations and Liberty $5.00.
I love type sets, but feel that additional effort is useful to not just pick the most common date. Not everyone feel this way.
Shhhhhh! You’re giving away our whole playbook! 😂
Lol, just kidding. I take the same approach though. I’m a type collector at heart, but I’d rather have better date coins, if possible, if it’s a marginal price difference. Of course it doesn’t always work out like that, and sometimes the coin that speaks to me is the most common date. For instance, I’m about to bid on a really nice, but common gold coin this week. Looking at price guides, I could get a date that has 15% of the amount of the remaining survivors, for about 15% more than the cost of the common coin. I think that represents a pretty good value, IF I were able to find one that measures up to the common coin I plan to take down.
The other aspect of this strategy is that it’s really dependent on the series. There are some series that are very expensive to begin with, or span a long time period, and have very few date or date/mint set collectors. The market is driven by type collectors who want the best looking coin for their money, so even the most common date retains its value quite well.
@Catbert said:
As I see it, most collector members here don’t expect to earn much, if any, from this hobby. Thus, the investment case is irrelevant. Welcome to the forum. What do you collect?
Thanks, Cat ! Eclectic type collector, mostly commemoratives, bullion coins, Morgans, and Saints. Not a small U.S. denomination guy; my passion is for Double Eagles but obviously the cost limits my buying (until PowerBall comes through !! ).
I do lots of reading and research on the coins I purchase or have interest in....flows from my general love of history....plus, it gives me something to do while I'm saving up $$$ to buy (which can take a while )....so I'll gather information from wherever I can (books, articles, auction catalogs, forum posts , online auction commentaries).
Barely kept up with the stock market with much greater risk.
Just under 5% a year for Weitzman when he sold the coin (at a very high price, according to the experts) in 2021 to the current owner EliteCollection. The S&P 500 returned 10.7% (with dividends) and even 8.5% on a price-only basis.
You have to go back before the gold price controls ended in the early-1970's to really generate market-competitive or market-beating returns -- and you'd still need some luck. In the case of the 1933 Saint (and it's clearly unique, as it's the only one legal to own), if you could have bought one at the price that James Macallister bought it or sold it for the next day back in early-1937 ($500 and $1,600, respectively) you would have earned just over 13% ($500) or 11.6% ($1,600) on your money. How many of us could have bought the coin back then compared to investing $100 or even $50 in a diversified stock mutual fund is another question.
BTW, the S&P 500 would have given you 10.5% with dividends over those 84 years, 6.7% on a price-only basis (since a coin pays no dividends or interest).
@spyglassdesign said:
Best or safest? Best is raw silver and gold, including bullion and junk silver. Over short terms gold and silver go ip and down, but over the long term it's upward trajectory, and will never be worth zero. Numismatic value coins are market dependent and can lose value to just the value of the silver or gold in them, whereas current numismatic values are usually far above the raw value. One possible exception to this rule would be very rare coins. But even those are some risk if someone finds a new Hoard with a bunch of those coins, for example.
Those are certainly risks.
What you have to ask is if "rare" is met by demand. In the case of MCMVII High Relief Saints, it's certainly NOT a rare coin, but so many people desire the coin -- including many who are not coin collectors and own no other coins at all -- that the demand has supported what some would consider a very high price.
OTOH, you have had discussed on these forums -- and reflected in actual coin prices and the PCGS 3000 Index -- that the unwinding of the 1st Generation of U.S. coin collectors the last 10-15 years or so -- has led to big declines in many popularly collected U.S. coin series (plus other factors, for sure).
@spyglassdesign said:
Best or safest? Best is raw silver and gold, including bullion and junk silver. Over short terms gold and silver go ip and down, but over the long term it's upward trajectory, and will never be worth zero. Numismatic value coins are market dependent and can lose value to just the value of the silver or gold in them, whereas current numismatic values are usually far above the raw value. One possible exception to this rule would be very rare coins. But even those are some risk if someone finds a new Hoard with a bunch of those coins, for example.
Those are certainly risks.
What you have to ask is if "rare" is met by demand. In the case of MCMVII High Relief Saints, it's certainly NOT a rare coin, but so many people desire the coin -- including many who are not coin collectors and own no other coins at all -- that the demand has supported what some would consider a very high price.
OTOH, you have had discussed on these forums -- and reflected in actual coin prices and the PCGS 3000 Index -- that the unwinding of the 1st Generation of U.S. coin collectors the last 10-15 years or so -- has led to big declines in many popularly collected U.S. coin series (plus other factors, for sure).
True... A business has to keep up with supply and demand dynamics as well. 👍
Coins aren't good investments. Just because they hold value other than face values doesn't make it an investment. Want to invest? Invest in stocks and real property.
I wish I knew which coins are a good investment: I don't know. Having said that, I will tell you all which coins NOT to buy. Avoid Seated Coins of all denominations for the next ten to fifteen years! In particular those that cost less than a thousand dollars and are in slabs. These are bad JUJU, mess you up real BAD! I beg you ALL to take a vow now to avoid these coins! You will thank me later.
I might respectfully disagree with the many not considering coins as a legitimate investment.
Like any “investment” careful consideration and specifics need to be accounted for in this debate.
Sure, broad stock indexes have outperformed over time, but many individual stocks, once highly esteemed blue chips have gone to zero over time. Nothing is a sure thing. Betting on any single item carries with it much higher risk.
I hold that rare, high quality coins hold a modest place in an investment portfolio while still providing the collectors with some measure of fun and enjoyment.
I would put (some) coins in there along with fine art, antiquities, original photography and even collectible cars, as legitimate “investment” materials, though I wouldn’t put a big chunk of my net worth into any single one of the later categories personally. I’m all about diversifying wealth, and enjoying some of it!
Edited to answer the question: Personally, not modern ultra super high grade materials. No disrespect to those specialists that work in that arena. I fear coins changing in holders and the vagaries inherent in the marketplace for modern issues.
Happy, humble, honored and proud recipient of the “You Suck” award 10/22/2014
Comments
This is my opinion. Dealers make money year in and year out or else they go out of business. I presume more of them would buy and hold if they thought it was more profitable to do so.
A dealer should spend almost all of his time putting effort in to "investing" in coins.
The most successful store owner that I know explained his business philosophy to me.
"Chuck, if you're buying- I'm selling.
If you're selling then I'm buying"
Rubles!
coins as an investment. no.
bullion coins as an investment. yes.
buy a gold eagle or buff.
As an average collector, I just look for coins that I like which have low survival numbers that are reasonably priced.
I look at seated half dimes as coins which are criminally undervalued in all grades. That series is somewhat unpopular with collectors, but the survival estimates are low even on common dates.
Disagree. There's junk in every deal. Successful dealers know how to price out the deal so they can dispose of what's considered junk quickly.
Got a barn full of junk? Let me introduce you to Coleman Foster.
He's got six seats filled at his table and a couple more standing waiting. Likely 99% of his inventory is under $500 and he will figure a circ Lincoln set in the album, pricing various $22 dollar coins for which he paid $8 at a still useful $14. He will have five varied sets of these at one time. Numerous no-grades, presentable and otherwise. I'm not sure if he's still around, but the very solid Walt Ankerman used to do this on the West Coast. Most the stuff (and it is stuff) these guys handle aren't worth a slabbing.
We actually don't disagree at all. There just seems to be somewhat different interpretation of what "junk" consists of.
If it is readily saleable it is not "junk". Knowing the price at which items become saleable is the key to success. Coleman Foster had apparently mastered this art.
I’ve been an astute investor for years. My friends would tell me they had an investment in their house. I told them a house is not an investment, it’s an asset plain and simple. If your house is worth $250k and you sell it you still have to buy another to live in. If you choose the exact same type of house you will pay $250k. Simple economics.
(Please don’t confuse downsizing, apartment living etc with making money. It’s not relevant. )
If you purchase coins, they are also an asset or a tradable commodity just like silver bars or gold.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
We still disagree. There is no junk whatsoever, just coins owned by people who don't how to price them in order to sell them easily. It's called due diligence.
At the right price, dreck is a good deal.
Holed Bust $1 at $300 anyone? 800 AG Indian cents at the same number?
Yep. One man's trash is another man's treasure. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. There's an ass for every seat. I'm sure there's more.
I have done quite well in rubles, how many other platinum circulating coinage do you know about?
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
Usually when I hear the term "popular", it's measured by the size of the collector base. Liberty Seated can't be relatively popular in this sense due to supply constraints. I almost exclusively collect one Latin America series (multiple mints and denominations) and it's never going to be "popular" by this measure either.
Financially, the difficulty with Liberty Seated becoming substantially more valuable is that (1) it's concurrently scarce compared to most US coinage, (2) a complete series is not affordable to very many collectors, (3) most collectors prefer more variety, and yes, (4) the design only has a slightly above average preference. Other designs with a higher preference with dates which are generically more common have much of the demand from type sets and/or die variety collectors, neither of which is enough to noticeably increase demand for Liberty Seated coinage.
What I wrote also applies to the series I collect, except that it's not US and it's also noticeably scarcer.
I watched several of the Lisot video archives dating back as far as they went.
One in particular had Don Bonser speak about undervalued Lincoln cents at FUN.
Wrote down all the coins and stated values. Now this was 10+ year old quotes.
Nearly each coin had remained the same price for the grade all these years later.
Part of what inspired me to invest time and money learning to grade.
Any added value appears to be in the ability to grade.
So investing in yourself is the correct answer.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
I view my coin collection as part of my Entertainment Fund and I budget for it accordingly. Much like going to the movies... only, I can take coins out and look at them at any time. I can also expect to recoup some of this fund at a later date when I sell... try doing that with Ishtar!
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
There is no good answer to this question. Someone posted recently prices of before and after the crash twenty, thirty years ago. Nothing was safe then and that will mostly continue.
Anything I have can be dumped tomorrow, but little will be on the upside.
As far as the dealer tangent it's an online world for the vast majority. No one is going to do a start up in Seattle where a tiny store front rent would pass what you hoped to gross in sales.
I'm afraid you got me beat. This is the closest thing I have to a Ruble.
Many coming in bourse room can only afford collector coins (what many call junk). One guy had junk box of world coins, all nicely labeled in 2x2’s. - 6 for a dollar. It appeared to be one of the most successful venues at the show. He told me he had sold about 320 of those at last show. Helps show expenses. G-VG Barbers a good high demand area in this too.
If a dealer is buying estates it can be a take it all deal to get the buy. Consequently one accumulates the good, the bad, and the ugly.
As far as my stance on churning coins they don’t pay interest or dividends and one needs experience on both sides of ball whether investor or dealer.
Really? I think Cash is the worst place to invest right now. Inflation is here.
Join the fight against Minnesota's unjust coin dealer tax law.
Buying gold coins with nurismatic segnificance.
You are quoting me 13 weeks after I posted and I'd still rather have the cash then invest in any of the coins mentioned in the op.
For me getting my better MV currency graded PCGS. Last subm many top pop / none finer. A win win.
I honestly dont know anyone on these forums who call any coins "junk"
I think one missing aspect when a thread arises that discusses coins in terms of investments is "skill". To be really good at making money at any type of investment generally is really hard to do. That is why most professional money managers dont beat the S and p 500. Why most day traders fail. Taking it a bit farther why only a small percentage of poker players win consistently, etc. Being able to find, evaluate, buy at the right price and sell at the right price coins takes someone to not only work really hard to educate themselves but to also network.
Most people cant do it just like most people cant beat the s & p 500. And that is why buying an index fund makes sense for most people (not everyone) when it comes to investing because it is easy. It acknowledges our limitations.
If I remember correctly, 80% of poker players lose, 10% break even, and 10% make a profit.
I liked making a profit playing poker
Get about 20 Red Books spread out between 1940s-present. Then buy a ream or two of graph paper, some pencils and a ruler. Devote about 1,000 hours to this. You just might get an idea or two.
1933 $20 Saint.
Barely kept up with the stock market with much greater risk.
Any denomination of U.S. gold Eagles when the price is very low. Not now. Have to be patient. Every 10/15 years. Then pounce!
My $86 V75 ASE is looking pretty good. Paid $25 for PR70 grading. Also graded 70s on my RFK commemorative set which will return quite nicely.
Other than that, I always buy slabbed (I don't trust my eye), and use CW, PCGS, and NCG price guides to show me a fair cost. I then look for those Ebay coins that are priced less than the guides suggest. I also watch the TV coin shows to learn about coins and series. I very rarely buy anything from them, but sometimes they will have a good deal.
Maybe at $7.59 million, but at almost $20 million? Then again I never thought it would break $10 million so what do I know…
We're probably getting wrapped around the axle on this but this is just my opinion The OP maybe posing an impossible question.
We could start an entire thread on what you (we) consider "HOLD for a long time". And I get it, this is probably not what the OP was referring to.
Assuming these guys found these W's in rolls from banks, (and most of them did) I would consider a "week" HOLDING for a long time.
https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_trksid=p2334524.m570.l1313&_nkw=40+Coin+Roll+of+2020-W+Tallgrass+Prairie+Quarters&_sacat=0&LH_TitleDesc=0&rt=nc&_odkw=rolls+of+W+quarters&_osacat=0&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1
Interesting thread....my main quibble would be to rename it "Best Coin Speculation To Make"
As most of you probably know, it is very tough to make an investment case for coins. Maybe some of you have generated competitive results to stocks, bonds, real estate, or running a business....but that's the exception rather than the rule just like active management beating passive management in the stock market. And that's not surprising, since this is a HOBBY and not a wealth-generation activity.
I've RARELY seen any post-1970 investments generate double-digit returns comparable to stocks or in the neighborhood of bonds for any time period, let alone rolling time periods where you eliminate timing bias. The numbers seem to congregate for Trophy Coins at about 7% annualized, give-or-take.
The 1933 Saint....Liberty Head Double Eagles....the 1908-S Norweb Saint (one of David Akers' favorite coins)....most of my analyses focused on gold coins and double eagles in particular. Could be some niches in smaller denomination gold or non-gold U.S. coiins that I overlooked, but I think the basic problem is this: having to rely SOLELY on capital appreciation, as coins don't throw off dividends or interest, means that they have a big headwind to compete with equities over the long haul.
For those of you older than me able to buy coins pre-1970 (either gold or silver coins or other series that benefitted later from demographic tailwinds), you might be able to say otherwise depending on when you bought and/or sold.
One coin that did stand out was the 1850 Proof Liberty Head DE that Bass purchased in the early-1970's for about $3,000. I believe it returned just over 12% annualized when it was sold, one of the few double-digit gains I saw over a multi-decade period for any coin, gold or non-gold.
As I see it, most collector members here don’t expect to earn much, if any, from this hobby. Thus, the investment case is irrelevant.
Welcome to the forum. What do you collect?
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Best or safest? Best is raw silver and gold, including bullion and junk silver. Over short terms gold and silver go ip and down, but over the long term it's upward trajectory, and will never be worth zero. Numismatic value coins are market dependent and can lose value to just the value of the silver or gold in them, whereas current numismatic values are usually far above the raw value. One possible exception to this rule would be very rare coins. But even those are some risk if someone finds a new Hoard with a bunch of those coins, for example.
https://www.the4thcoin.com
https://www.ebay.com/str/thefourthcoin
Holding coins cost money. As you say moving inventory is a part of a lot of business... Otherwise they will go under. There are probably some exceptions but generally speaking, holding won't be profitable enough.
https://www.the4thcoin.com
https://www.ebay.com/str/thefourthcoin
I have made profits buying better date undervalued coins which are attractive. This takes some patience, but here is one way to do this:
Look at PCGS pop reports and CAC reports as well if you prefer CAC coins, noting populations.
Look for coins that for your given price range (using PCGS prices) in a certain grade have the lowest population at PCGS, within a series. Price and condition are up to you.
Not all coins in a grade are worth the same, but use PCGS prices as a rough idea of price. Looking at auction results for verification makes this even more accurate, but it takes more effort.
The two main stats for population are 1) How many in all grades 2) How many are finer than a coin in this grade.
Verify your numbers (population) against NGC.
There are some real disparities between rarity and price if you look.
Some series are less active, but this will protect an investment in your series of choice or provide some gains.
I've done this with Seated Coins of all denominations and Liberty $5.00.
I love type sets, but feel that additional effort is useful to not just pick the most common date. You'll often have to pay a touch more for the much less common date, but I feel it is worth it.
Example
1904 $20 2,000,000 exist in all grades, 312,000 BU coins - MS-60 $2500 MS 63 $2650 (PCGS prices, an approximation)
1906 $20 2,000 exist in all grades,1000 BU coins MS-60 $3000, MS-61 $3500, it gets much more expensive in higher grades.
I would go with a nice 1906 whether it be AU58+ or MS-61. This coin is much less sensitive to bullion prices.
However not everyone feels this way.
Shhhhhh! You’re giving away our whole playbook! 😂
Lol, just kidding. I take the same approach though. I’m a type collector at heart, but I’d rather have better date coins, if possible, if it’s a marginal price difference. Of course it doesn’t always work out like that, and sometimes the coin that speaks to me is the most common date. For instance, I’m about to bid on a really nice, but common gold coin this week. Looking at price guides, I could get a date that has 15% of the amount of the remaining survivors, for about 15% more than the cost of the common coin. I think that represents a pretty good value, IF I were able to find one that measures up to the common coin I plan to take down.
The other aspect of this strategy is that it’s really dependent on the series. There are some series that are very expensive to begin with, or span a long time period, and have very few date or date/mint set collectors. The market is driven by type collectors who want the best looking coin for their money, so even the most common date retains its value quite well.
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Fantastic references, and a series that you love to study.
I am a newer collector (started April 2020), and I primarily focus on U.S. Half Cents and Type Coins. Early copper is my favorite.
Thanks, Cat ! Eclectic type collector, mostly commemoratives, bullion coins, Morgans, and Saints. Not a small U.S. denomination guy; my passion is for Double Eagles but obviously the cost limits my buying (until PowerBall comes through !!
).
I do lots of reading and research on the coins I purchase or have interest in....flows from my general love of history....plus, it gives me something to do while I'm saving up $$$ to buy (which can take a while
)....so I'll gather information from wherever I can (books, articles, auction catalogs, forum posts 
, online auction commentaries).
Always happy to share said information.
Just under 5% a year for Weitzman when he sold the coin (at a very high price, according to the experts) in 2021 to the current owner EliteCollection. The S&P 500 returned 10.7% (with dividends) and even 8.5% on a price-only basis.
You have to go back before the gold price controls ended in the early-1970's to really generate market-competitive or market-beating returns -- and you'd still need some luck. In the case of the 1933 Saint (and it's clearly unique, as it's the only one legal to own), if you could have bought one at the price that James Macallister bought it or sold it for the next day back in early-1937 ($500 and $1,600, respectively) you would have earned just over 13% ($500) or 11.6% ($1,600) on your money. How many of us could have bought the coin back then compared to investing $100 or even $50 in a diversified stock mutual fund is another question.
BTW, the S&P 500 would have given you 10.5% with dividends over those 84 years, 6.7% on a price-only basis (since a coin pays no dividends or interest).
Those are certainly risks.
What you have to ask is if "rare" is met by demand. In the case of MCMVII High Relief Saints, it's certainly NOT a rare coin, but so many people desire the coin -- including many who are not coin collectors and own no other coins at all -- that the demand has supported what some would consider a very high price.
OTOH, you have had discussed on these forums -- and reflected in actual coin prices and the PCGS 3000 Index -- that the unwinding of the 1st Generation of U.S. coin collectors the last 10-15 years or so -- has led to big declines in many popularly collected U.S. coin series (plus other factors, for sure).
True... A business has to keep up with supply and demand dynamics as well. 👍
https://www.the4thcoin.com
https://www.ebay.com/str/thefourthcoin
Reading these "best investment" threads is like sitting in on a Gamblers Anonymous meeting!
Coins aren't good investments. Just because they hold value other than face values doesn't make it an investment. Want to invest? Invest in stocks and real property.
Back to the original question
The best advise? Don't use the words coins and investment in the same sentence. 🤣 😂
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
If I knew which coins would go up in value the most I would give up my day job.
I wish I knew which coins are a good investment: I don't know. Having said that, I will tell you all which coins NOT to buy. Avoid Seated Coins of all denominations for the next ten to fifteen years! In particular those that cost less than a thousand dollars and are in slabs. These are bad JUJU, mess you up real BAD! I beg you ALL to take a vow now to avoid these coins! You will thank me later.
I might respectfully disagree with the many not considering coins as a legitimate investment.
Like any “investment” careful consideration and specifics need to be accounted for in this debate.
Sure, broad stock indexes have outperformed over time, but many individual stocks, once highly esteemed blue chips have gone to zero over time. Nothing is a sure thing. Betting on any single item carries with it much higher risk.
I hold that rare, high quality coins hold a modest place in an investment portfolio while still providing the collectors with some measure of fun and enjoyment.
I would put (some) coins in there along with fine art, antiquities, original photography and even collectible cars, as legitimate “investment” materials, though I wouldn’t put a big chunk of my net worth into any single one of the later categories personally. I’m all about diversifying wealth, and enjoying some of it!
Edited to answer the question: Personally, not modern ultra super high grade materials. No disrespect to those specialists that work in that arena. I fear coins changing in holders and the vagaries inherent in the marketplace for modern issues.
Happy, humble, honored and proud recipient of the “You Suck” award 10/22/2014