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Forgotten key date coins with stagnant prices.
rec78
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Hi, there are some key date coins that have not gone up much in value or even have gone down in value over the last 40 years. 1801 and 1802 bust halves comes to mind. I could get a 1801 or 1802 bust half 40 years ago that I can still get today for about the same cost or even less as back in the early 1980's, especially in lower grades(AG-VF). I guess this is because most collectors collect early bust coins by type and not date, and therefore not many people care about 1801 or 1802 bust halves. Also, nobody tried to accumulate a hoard of them to drive up the price. An 1803 bust half is another forgotten coin. What other coins (key date or semi-key date) coins have not gone up much or have gone down in price over the last 40 years?
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I remember buying a VG 1802 bust half for about $250 in the 1980's. Can't buy one for that now.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
You know that was a bargain. I never found one under $1500.
I was watching a video on Lincoln cents by Don Bonser from 2007.
The prices had all stayed the same on his picks.
Guess it is all in making the grade via crack outs?
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??? HUH??? What does this have to do with this thread?
The prices on his key date Lincoln picks had risen little to none in 13 years...
Guess this is about Half Dollars... sorry
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Back in the early sixties the value of a Good 1918-D 8/7 was around $125. Today's value in that grade is around $600. When inflation is taken into account it is worth less today than it was in 1961.
It seems to me, and this is just casual observations, that the key coins have increased in value in most cases (not correcting for inflation)... Just look at the '21 Peace dollar, a couple of CC Morgans... '55 DDO cent etc., etc., etc.. Cheers, RickO
It wasn't too long ago that a G-6 specimen was priced over $1000.00.
Pete
To my knowledge, most key dates from the most widely collected 20th century series have lost value, adjusted for price changes. These coins were never even scarce but the internet has made it common knowledge just how common all actually are and have been. This especially applies to "collector grade" quality which has lower appeal. Look on just eBay and there are hundreds at minimum any day of the week.
As for the value of Draped Bust halves, I never tried to buy an 1802 but don't recall a VG was worth anywhere near $1500 in the 80's. If it was, it was overpriced versus other comparably priced coinage.
Maybe in 1989 during the peak?
A coin selling for the same price today as it did 40 years ago has lost a tremendous amount of value.
In other words, $1000 invested at 7% interest would be worth $16,000 today. For the most part, collector coins have a poor track record when compared to other investments.
Even just accounting for inflation (3.5% on average), coins need to sell for 4X what they did in 1981 to have maintained their value.
Could be but I will be surprised if this applied to this coin in VG. The coin isn't common but isn't hard to buy in this grade or near it.
coins are not investments they are assets. Most asset just maintaining their value instead of deprecating is the goal.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
{I agree with you, but someone will be along to yell at you in a minute. Well...they always criticize me for such calculations.
}
I don’t care if they yell. The math doesn’t lie. I just think people should consider the opportunity cost of tying up money in something they justify to themselves as an “investment.” If the enjoyment obtained by owning the coin is worth the expense, fantastic! That’s how I see it. Most hobbies return almost nothing financially, it’s just healthy to have a working knowledge of the time value of money.
Or put into amazon stock at it's IPO, worth somewhere north of 30 million
>
Exactly, and this is why most or all common US 20th century US key dates have and will continue to lose value.
Posted this before but on one occasion I evaluated key and a subset of semi-key date Lincoln cents in "UNC" then and MS-63 more recently. All except for maybe the 1955 DDO lost value adjusted for price changes versus 1965. Performance varied over shorter time intervals.
My explanation reason coins lost value is, aside from actually being common, all were quite or very expensive versus other coins and for the target collector base who were predominantly less affluent at the time. 1931-S Cent @ $80 was typically a week's income or somewhat less in 1965. Similar idea for the 09-S VDB @ $335. This is per my Red Book.
You can apply the above to most post 1835 coins in most grades re prices in the last 40 years. Some have gone up in value, but haven't matched inflation, like my 1909 P IHC in MS 65 RD. Many others are actually worth less today. There are exceptions, but I couldn't afford to buy them then, and can't afford to buy them now.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
This is a hobby and treat it as such.
You want to make money put the cash someplace else.
I agree with both of you. But not everyone does. This comes up all the time here.
There are other aspects to this as well. For example, people will wait years trying to "get there money back" not considering the time value of the money.
But coins have always been a mix of hobby and treasure hunt. Doesn't everyone want to cherry pick?
For the 1801 and 1802 half dollars, after owning multiple examples since 1997, they went up in price a fair amount from 1998 to about 2008, then leveled to 2015, and have softened in price in some grades such as XF since then. Pre-internet, the 1801/1802's were usually only available at national shows or by auction representation, I never saw one at PNW shows or shops. My first 1802 was from a FPL of Stu Keen in 1999, I was on the west coast and would get his FPL a day or two earlier than east coast, and when he sent the coin and others he would have a note "I have xx collectors interested if you don't want it." Now they are availble on the internet in most grades F-AU.
That brings up a point that has not been discussed much here, the turnover rate for coins is faster now than 30 years ago and most collectors don't hold for a lifetime - there are many ways to easily sell now. If the average ownership hold time for coins has gone from (as example) 25 years to 10 years, the amount of time the coins will be for sale to the public is longer, and with the internet the entire collecting universe can see what is for sale on any key date "rarity" they want. The number extant of key dates is the same but the number available for sale at any given time is higher, which has a dampening effect on prices.
I see this as two conversations.
1) what people do with their money and expect back from it- that’s not really my business but I hope my coins hold their value no more.
2) the semi outdated notion of key dates that the got shifted now that we can easily tell which coins have more collectors than coins and which don’t. Why would AG 1916d dimes be so coveted? It is what dealers had to sell.
This also I suspect what is partially driving the push towards quality. It’s hard to push coins or run the classic “promotion” to rile up the customer base on stuff they can get too. So look over here, I got the PQ stuff.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
POTD right here...
In the 1960's, the average mutual fund held stocks for 6+ years.
Today, I doubt it is six months in many cases.
There is little long term vision.
If one compared Weinberg the collector... to well... Weinberg the dealer... I wonder who comes out ahead in 2021 after about 50 years on different paths?
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People should have seen the writing on the wall 10 or more years ago with the shift to type collecting, Box of 20 collecting and the focus on eye appeal.
The real question is, are there more collectors today or in the past.
I would bet there are less collectors today, and I'd bet a majority have less money to play around with too. That can explain stagnant or dropping prices especially on the lower grade coins.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
With coins, holding your interest should be the goal.
Holding value should be secondary in a true hobby.
My purchase records indicate that prices on SOME of my key date coins have not stagnated:
1909 S Lincoln Cent; 11-13-91; $45.; bought raw PCGS VF20
1909 S VDB Lincoln Cent; 7-10-92; $500.; bought raw PCGS MS61 red
1914 D Lincoln Cent; 10-18-90; $88.; bought raw PCGS F15
1916 D Mercury Dime; 4-5-94; $485. ANA G4; now a PCGS G04
1942/1 Mercury Dime; 3-1-96; $280.; bought raw PCGS VF30
1801 Draped Bust Half Dollar; 1986; $88. bought raw PCGS Genuine Tooled - AG Detail
1921 D Walking Liberty Half Dollar; 6-8-96; $125.; PCGS VG08
etc, etc.
Others have stagnated. The 1932-D and 1932-S quarters comes to mind
1801 and 1802 aren’t really “key dates”, but they are fairly rare coins. For collectors of draped or early bust halves, 1796 and 1797 are the key dates. 1794 has become much more common in recent past, and 1801 and 1802, while still rare, are probably more available than in decades past.
Key date coins are generally singular rarities in a series of coins with many common dates. I don’t see those halves as really fitting that mold. Only the 1806 draped bust half could be considered particularly common.
Low grade coins have never had the appreciation potential of higher grade pieces. (Unless you play the lowest graded game).
I bought low grade 1801, 1802, and 1803 half dollars about 15-20 years ago. Probably haven’t gone up much in value, though I didn’t buy them for the investment. They are cool old coins that are truly rare.
The concept of a key date made a lot more sense when coins were actually (somewhat) harder to buy. As the posts above indicate, higher turnover and the internet in the recent past have made it much easier to buy most coins.
None of the coins mentioned in this thread are even close to being hard to buy now, except as a specialization (such as a die variety) or in a specific quality. Some of the coins are just expensive where most collectors cannot afford it. Even the 1796 and 1797 half, not hard to buy generically. It's rare by most collectors standards (not mine) but it's available to be bought in some quality any time now.
As you you state, there are some series where the "key dates" are a disproportionate percentage of the series. In US coinage, several of the 19th century gold. Many more in non-US coinage where, partly due to the much lower price level, most of the coins in my primary series seldom come up for sale and/or only as dreck.