#commemsqueeze???

MrEureka

Shorts are unusual in the coin business, and they're typically private deals between two dealers. For example, I might commit to deliver 1000 bags of 1964 Kennedy half dollars to a retail marketing firm at a fixed price. In which case I would hedge the bullion value by buying futures, leaving myself long silver and short JFKs. Then, I would round up the coins, deliver them at the agreed price, and close the bullion hedge. But if I have trouble finding the coins, I may get "squeezed", have to pay higher than expected premiums, and lose my shirt.

Now I'm not saying that there's a big short or a squeeze in the commem market right now. Certainly, if there were, we could join forces to buy all of the available commems and crush the dealer who was short commems. But if there's no short, there's no squeeze, because nobody out there actually needs to buy the coins.

But does that mean there's no opportunity to drive the market higher? Couldn't we all join forces and decide we're going to run the commem market to the moon? I think it could be done, it could be profitable, and it would be a lot of fun.

And BTW, of course, this is not financial advice, etc.

coinbuf

Sounds like a great way to burn some collectors and further kill the hobby.

JRocco

Can you pick something with more of an upside than a commem ?

Higashiyama

Clearly there has been a 20 year conspiracy to keep the price of commemoratives down.

Batman23

I don't follow supply squeezes. I do know supply and demand. No supply with some demand and prices will increase. But what happens if you are holding 10% of all the commems to keep the price inflated and you want to dump that 10%? Do you end up selling for scrap value? Seems that once the market is fluid again the value will settle back where it was.

MrEureka

@Batman23 said:
I don't follow supply squeezes. I do know supply and demand. No supply with some demand and prices will increase. But what happens if you are holding 10% of all the commems to keep the price inflated and you want to dump that 10%? Do you end up selling for scrap value? Seems that once the market is fluid again the value will settle back where it was.

Just keep buying until the greater fools emerge. All it takes is money. Simple enough?

Batman23

@MrEureka said:

@Batman23 said:
I don't follow supply squeezes. I do know supply and demand. No supply with some demand and prices will increase. But what happens if you are holding 10% of all the commems to keep the price inflated and you want to dump that 10%? Do you end up selling for scrap value? Seems that once the market is fluid again the value will settle back where it was.

Just keep buying until the greater fools emerge. All it takes is money. Simple enough?

Got it. Just hoard hoard hoard till you have it all. Don't worry about exit strategy... holding IS the win.

TomB

Sounds like a great plan...except for the part that we are the only folks in the world who would buy commems!

EBSnumismatics

If your plan is to suck the life and wallets of young and new collectors, sounds like a great idea.
Our hobby is dying. We have bigger issues as a community, and honestly, a little disappointed to read this.

johnny9434

It's not my thing. I just collect cause I like it

MFeld

The only way I can foresee a "commemsqueeze" is if a group gets together and partakes in mass vise jobs. And I doubt that would be profitable.

silverpop

anything and everything can squeezed by groups , companies this is not unusual in the world happens all the time just now it's more public then used to be

MrEureka

@EBSnumismatics said:
If your plan is to suck the life and wallets of young and new collectors, sounds like a great idea.
Our hobby is dying. We have bigger issues as a community, and honestly, a little disappointed to read this.

One thing I should have learned from following The Onion's articles on Facebook is that however nutty something sounds, someone always thinks you're serious.

keets

I think everyone should just leave Classic Commems alone.

ctf_error_coins

Classic Commemoratives promoted on television would do the trick

EBSnumismatics

@MrEureka said:

@EBSnumismatics said:
If your plan is to suck the life and wallets of young and new collectors, sounds like a great idea.
Our hobby is dying. We have bigger issues as a community, and honestly, a little disappointed to read this.

One thing I should have learned from following The Onion's articles on Facebook is that however nutty something sounds, someone always thinks you're serious.

I'm a satire lover too. Unfortunately sometimes it's hard to tell the difference in 2021.

Yeah, glad this isn't a serious call to action. Sorry for being stoopid

jmlanzaf

@MrEureka said:

@Batman23 said:
I don't follow supply squeezes. I do know supply and demand. No supply with some demand and prices will increase. But what happens if you are holding 10% of all the commems to keep the price inflated and you want to dump that 10%? Do you end up selling for scrap value? Seems that once the market is fluid again the value will settle back where it was.

Just keep buying until the greater fools emerge. All it takes is money. Simple enough?

It should be easier than with GME and SLV. Take a commem that only has 10,000 ever minted and start buying them. Supply pretty quickly dries up.

jmlanzaf

@MFeld said:
The only way I can foresee a "commemsqueeze" is if a group gets together and partakes in mass vise jobs. And I doubt that would be profitable.

Isn't that what Dan Carr does?

Namvet69

Looks like somebody got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning. Peace Roy

MrEureka

@EBSnumismatics said:

@MrEureka said:

@EBSnumismatics said:
If your plan is to suck the life and wallets of young and new collectors, sounds like a great idea.
Our hobby is dying. We have bigger issues as a community, and honestly, a little disappointed to read this.

One thing I should have learned from following The Onion's articles on Facebook is that however nutty something sounds, someone always thinks you're serious.

I'm a satire lover too. Unfortunately sometimes it's hard to tell the difference in 2021.

Yeah, glad this isn't a serious call to action. Sorry for being stoopid

The blame is mine! Still, #commemsqueeze was a pretty good "tell".

And to bring it back to coins, here are a couple of real commem squeezes!

WCC

That's pretty much what happened during the late 1980's TPG bubble.

It didn't last then because no one wanted the coins at those prices and this coinage is even less competitive now due to the internet and subsequently issued NCLT.

Swampboy

O.K.
I'm in.
But classic commems.
I don't do moderns.
Over

3stars

@jmlanzaf said:

@MrEureka said:

@Batman23 said:
I don't follow supply squeezes. I do know supply and demand. No supply with some demand and prices will increase. But what happens if you are holding 10% of all the commems to keep the price inflated and you want to dump that 10%? Do you end up selling for scrap value? Seems that once the market is fluid again the value will settle back where it was.

Just keep buying until the greater fools emerge. All it takes is money. Simple enough?

It should be easier than with GME and SLV. Take a commem that only has 10,000 ever minted and start buying them. Supply pretty quickly dries up.

This is my lottery winning dream for some reason.

WAYNEAS

With all the hoopla here on silver to buy buy buy, Bloomberg reported that silver closed down 1.51% today.
People are so trying to drive the price up so they can sell at a high profit leaving the newbies to absorb the loss.
Be very careful at what you read and follow along with. What goes up must come down.

Cougar1978

I don’t see any conspiracy - people are struggling to make ends ends meet. This will continue for a long time.....

Classic Commems seem like a good buy but are you confident you can move them and make money? Who’s going to buy them? You can’t sell coins to broke people. Right now I am bullish on bullion silver coins.

thebeav

I've always said that if a thousand people woke up tomorrow and decided to put together a commem set, that's all it would take......

MFeld

@thebeav said:
I've always said that if a thousand people woke up tomorrow and decided to put together a commem set, that's all it would take......

That's "all" it would take? That doesn't sound like something which is going to happen.

ricko

I think @MrEureka did a good job at satire, and an excellent job at explaining the recent market phenomena for people who are not normally involved in such things. His example is a simplistic explanation, in relatable terms, for coin collectors. Not everyone plays in the market or has extensive knowledge of how it functions. Thanks Andy. Cheers, RickO

Zoins

@JRocco said:
Can you pick something with more of an upside than a commem ?

Dogecoin

3keepSECRETif2rDEAD

@jmlanzaf said:
It should be easier than with GME and SLV. Take a commem that only has 10,000 ever minted and start buying them. Supply pretty quickly dries up.

...then for the ultimate return and favor to the hobby...hold a public presser with yourself, those 10k minted coins and a smelter...toss about 9,990 of them into it and then bam...rare like a steak

jmlanzaf

@Zoins said:

@JRocco said:
Can you pick something with more of an upside than a commem ?

Dogecoin

LOL. They already ran that up from 0.001 cents to 0.04 cents.

Longacre

Is this any different from a Well Managed Promotion(TM)?

coinhack

@Longacre said:
Is this any different from a Well Managed Promotion(TM)?

Just what I was thinking. And hasn't it already been done before with commems?