@blitzdude said:
It occurs when a group aka banksters, robinhooders attempt to artificially increase the silver price. The suppression conspiracy is all just Bulgarian noise.
Even better!!
blitzbro has opened my eyes further...and ears (All I hear now is Bulgarian silence!)
so THAT MEANS ...the (Banksters + Bros) will unite to drive the price "To Da Moon®" !
◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊
blitzbro...thank you!...no ones made a better case to get on board the Silver Train® than you
@blitzdude said:
It occurs when a group aka banksters, robinhooders attempt to artificially increase the silver price. The suppression conspiracy is all just Bulgarian noise.
Even better!!
blitzbro has opened my eyes further...and ears (All I hear now is Bulgarian silence!)
so THAT MEANS ...the (Banksters + Bros) will unite to drive the price "To Da Moon®" !
◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊
blitzbro...thank you!...no ones made a better case to get on board the Silver Train® than you
Sounds like robinhood just put the brakes on the Choo-Choo. Back to the gutter perhaps. THKS!
@3stars said:
If silver gets to $1000 (or even $100) who's going to buy it. No dealer is going to pay you $10k for your 10 oz bars because they know it will drop like a huge brick shortly.
If silver gets to $1000 (or even $100) it is because someone is buying at that price. It's called price discovery.
@derryb Aren't you the one all along that said the spot price of silver has nothing to do with the actual price of silver?
Aren't the reddit folks talking about getting SLV to spike, not actual silver prices. There is a big difference is there not?
From the little I read, they want to get SLV to the price they think Silver spot should actually be trading at which has nothing to do with actual trading in silver.
@jessewvu said:
So, who's buying SLV Monday? Go ahead, speak up.
Why not double the fun with AGQ?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@jessewvu said:
So, who's buying SLV Monday? Go ahead, speak up.
Why not double the fun with AGQ?
I don't even know what's going on here... A bunch of young whipper snappers talking about some squeezes and some shorts. Sounds like they be fixen' to make lemonade on a hot summer day.
@derryb Aren't you the one all along that said the spot price of silver has nothing to do with the actual price of silver?
Aren't the reddit folks talking about getting SLV to spike, not actual silver prices. There is a big difference is there not?
From the little I read, they want to get SLV to the price they think Silver spot should actually be trading at which has nothing to do with actual trading in silver.
I may be confused on what you wrote.
I've said all along that the true value of silver has nothing to do with spot price. However, the price of silver has always been based on spot price plus a premium, depending on the product. The difference between value and price is what normally drives markets. A futures market provides a means to interfere with with normal price discovery that is based on true supply and true demand. FWIW commodity futures markets were created and designed to protect both producers and consumers of commodities from volatile prices swings. They have protected the farmers and food producers and the miners and jewelers of this country for decades. Unfortunately they also provide profit opportunity for speculators who have learned to use the tools of the futures exchange to their advantage. And worse, they are used by governments who have their bidding agents protect their currencies. Commodities futures market participants should be limited to true producers and large consumers of the commodity. Speculators and government trading agents should be limited to non-commodity markets.
The more that premium increases (the more you pay for physical over spot) then the less dependent physical silver is on spot price. Even if premiums were 1000% they would still be based on spot price. It is the futures market shorts that keep the spot price of silver from reflecting the true value of silver. Until buyers and sellers of silver refuse to factor in spot price, or until spot price ceases with a failure in the futures market, spot will always be the base for silver prices.
With GME, the reddit crowd was able to kick the shorters in the shorts because by going long in actual GME and driving up its price it put a squeeze on those shorting actual GME who suddenly became subject to margin calls. It's a bit different with silver. The etf SLV (like GLD) is a derivative that tracks the spot price in the futures market. SLV is not the silver spot market, it is affected by the spot market. SLV price rises and falls unilaterally with the price on the futures market. I don't see where driving up the price of the etf SLV will squeeze the shorters on the futures exchange. Driving up SLV will only squeeze those who have shorted the SLV. It will simply become overpriced (with money being made by sellers on the way up) when compared to what is is designed to track. The way to squeeze the exchange shorts is to increase the longs on the exchange itself to the point where all those shorts are forced to become longs which will set the spot price of silver free. Shorting futures is just not an option for the reddit crowd, it is done primarily by bullion banks and players who likely don't even read reddit.
SLV is a mirror of the futures price; it does not determine futures price. Raising the price of SLV above any noticeable amount over spot would simply give the SLV shorts (those who think spot will go down) a shot at butchering the SLV longs (those who think spot will keep going up). While sudden buying SLV may temporarily raise the price of SLV it will not raise the price of spot. By design, SLV will return to near spot price simply because it is a reflection of spot price, not spot price itself. As always, anyone who helps drive the price of SLV up will suffer if spot does not go up. Spot drives the price of the etf, it is not the other way around.
I suspect the recent rise in PMs is a gut reaction by hopeful speculators that believe or hope that the reddit gang can actually influence the futures market. Well, they have temporarily, but likely with a false hope. Trading next week will tell the whole story as one closely compares silver spot vs. SLV. I for one await the opening bell.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@jessewvu said:
So, who's buying SLV Monday? Go ahead, speak up.
Why not double the fun with AGQ?
I don't even know what's going on here... A bunch of young whipper snappers talking about some squeezes and some shorts. Sounds like they be fixen' to make lemonade on a hot summer day.
they fixin to become the lemons once the shorters skin them. Driving up the price of SLV (without spot price following it) simply means someone paid more for SLV than they should have - a shorter's paradise.
Any sign that SLV is jumping and spot silver ain't playing along is to me a sign to short SLV. For those that don't have the knowledge, ability or experience to short, there's alwaya ZSL, X2 silver inverse, the opposite of AGQ.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Anyone remember Buy an ounce of silver, Crash JP Morgan ?
I read the Reddit silver short thing and it says over the next few months they could put the squeeze on silver, not just by targeting SLV, but the silver miners and actually purchasing physical silver.
Think 2 million new silver buyers, scooping up a few ozs, or hundreds (thousands?) depending on how much they gained in the GameStop AMC or other squeezes we saw this week... it will be interesting to watch
Don’t underestimate the number of people that will be looking at buying silver. I can see the thought process now. If you missed your chance at GME from $4 to $300+, now is your next chance with silver. And silver really does have value compared to a retailer in a dying business model.
I was already holding a position in the SLV etf and added some Jan, 2022 $30 calls a few days ago. I won’t be surprised if SLV is trading north of $30 long before next year, maybe Monday
SLV owns an "investment in silver." This does not mean it owns actual silver.
JP Morgan is the custodian for SLV. JPM owns loads of silver. Holders of JPM's etf SLV do not own silver, JPM owns the silver.
If one wants an etf that actually holds silver he should consider PSLV.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@10000lakes said:
Don’t underestimate the number of people that will be looking at buying silver. I can see the thought process now. If you missed your chance at GME from $4 to $300+, now is your next chance with silver. And silver really does have value compared to a retailer in a dying business model.
I was already holding a position in the SLV etf and added some Jan, 2022 $30 calls a few days ago. I won’t be surprised if SLV is trading north of $30 long before next year, maybe Monday
The zerohedge article is what I was trying to say to @derryb:
When SLV issues shares, the custodian is forced to true up their vaults with the proportional amount of silver daily. From the SLV prospectus:
"An investment in Shares is: Backed by silver held by the Custodian on behalf of the Trust. The Shares are backed by the assets of the Trust. "
"Raising the price of SLV above any noticeable amount over spot would simply give the SLV shorts (those who think spot will go down) a shot at butchering the SLV longs (those who think spot will keep going up). While sudden buying SLV may temporarily raise the price of SLV it will not raise the price of spot. By design, SLV will return to near spot price simply because it is a reflection of spot price, not spot price itself."
I am not trying to be argumentative but honestly wondering if this could actually work. If I go long SLV or SLV calls and the price increases dramatically from a short squeeze, how will I not benefit? Based on the zero hedge article, SLV will have to buy actual physical silver driving up the spot price.
"Raising the price of SLV above any noticeable amount over spot would simply give the SLV shorts (those who think spot will go down) a shot at butchering the SLV longs (those who think spot will keep going up). While sudden buying SLV may temporarily raise the price of SLV it will not raise the price of spot. By design, SLV will return to near spot price simply because it is a reflection of spot price, not spot price itself."
JPM is the custodian of SLV. This means JPM, with it's reported (but unconfirmed) massive position in physical silver is backing SLV.
"The shares are backed by the assets of the Trust" is meaningless if the Trust (SLV) has little to no assets. JPM owns the assets, not the trust. It's all a smokescreen to reduce the perceived third party risk when investing in SLV.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
If you really think silver is going to be the next big pump, I’ll sell you mine at $100 an ounce right now, this way you don’t miss out on the way to $1000.
The trust is supposed to hold physical silver to back the shares that are issued. You can access a 9000 page list of the bars they hold. Some people don’t believe that they are always owing the bars they list. Tinfoil hat crowd.
I think the play in silver may have merit but I also just hold the GLD and SLV etfs as an inflation hedge against my other stock holdings. Any potential increase caused by a attempted squeeze is just a bonus.
The SLV fund could trade at a discount or premium to nav for short periods of time. The SLV fund was trading at a discount of -1.88% at Friday’s close. It looks like they held the price near $25 to have most of the $25 put and call options expire worthless. The call options volume and open qty have increased greatly in the last two days in SLV. Option price time premiums are also rising. It likely that the options I bought Wednesday and Thursday will double, just because of the expansion in time premium.
The SLV funds website they list the number of oz held in the trust each day. It rose around 5% in the last 2 days. If it keeps up at that pace, the rise in the physical silver market should happen.
Counter party risk includes a level of faith in what a prospectus says. When a fund blows up so does its promises.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
Counter party risk includes a level of faith in what a prospectus says. When a fund blows up so does its promises.
And that could happen if the group of stock and call buyers actually cause a long term squeeze like what is happening with GME. In this case the fund just wouldn’t be able to acquire the needed bars to back the shares being issued. Not sure if they would stop issuing more shares that can’t be backed by silver and let the price trade above NAV or issue shares that don’t have physical backing.
If the price was to move up very fast, I would exit most of stocks and options to lock in any gains.
I’m not greedy, a quick move > $40 would work for me😀
Like GME at $300, there is no way I would play that game hoping for even higher prices.
As I said earlier if the SLV price rises and the spot price does not follow then the SLV shorts will eat the SLV longs as the price stabilizes back down to match the spot price. The smart play might just be to short SLV once is rises and spot doesn't.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
As I said earlier if the SLV price rises and the spot price does not follow then the SLV shorts will eat the SLV longs as the price stabilizes to match the spot price. The smart play might just be to short SLV once is rises and spot doesn't.
They are betting that if a ton of investors go long SLV, then the trust will have to buy silver pushing up the spot price and the SLV shorts will have to cover. I guess we will have to wait and see if this actually happens. Should be a fun week.
@derryb said:
Counter party risk includes a level of faith in what a prospectus says. When a fund blows up so does its promises.
And that could happen if the group of stock and call buyers actually cause a long term squeeze like what is happening with GME. In this case the fund just wouldn’t be able to acquire the needed bars to back the shares being issued.
Did GME issue new shares during it's entire fiasco? I think you will find that SLV will not need new shares to meet increased demand. More demand raises the price because it takes more dollars to pry existing shares from the hands of current longs. It's all a matter of existing shares changing hands with the level of demand setting the price.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
As I said earlier if the SLV price rises and the spot price does not follow then the SLV shorts will eat the SLV longs as the price stabilizes to match the spot price. The smart play might just be to short SLV once is rises and spot doesn't.
And that is exactly what has happened to GME. People are not going to short SLV.
Take a look at the call options volume and open interest for the upcoming months.
They will force a “gamma squeeze “ as the price of SLV rises. Well at least that is what they’re betting on.
They are betting that if a ton of investors go long SLV, then the trust will have to buy silver pushing up the spot price and the SLV shorts will have to cover. I guess we will have to wait and see if this actually happens. Should be a fun week.
If there are a ton of buyers willing to pay more than current price then they will find a ton of sellers willing to take profit. The more sellers hold out when there are a ton of buyers, the higher the price will go.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
They are betting that if a ton of investors go long SLV, then the trust will have to buy silver pushing up the spot price and the SLV shorts will have to cover. I guess we will have to wait and see if this actually happens. Should be a fun week.
If there are a ton of buyers willing to pay more than current price then they will find a ton of sellers willing to take profit. The more sellers hold out when there are a ton of buyers, the higher the price will go.
As I explained earlier there is a major difference in SLV and GME. A rising price in the common stock GME puts a direct squeeze on those who are shorting the stock. Whereas SLV is a derivative whose price is determined by the spot price of an underlying asset, silver. The reddit gang can only squeeze SLV shorts. Unless they take their game directly to the futures market they cannot "squeeze" those who set the spot price of silver in the futures market.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
As I explained earlier there is a major difference in SLV and GME. A rising price in the common stock GME puts a direct squeeze on those who are shorting the stock. Whereas SLV is a derivative whose price is determined by the spot price of an underlying asset, silver. The reddit gang can only squeeze SLV shorts. Unless they take their game directly to the futures market they cannot "squeeze" those who set the spot price of silver in the futures market.
It’s likely that hedge funds and richer investors will buy futures.
We will know as soon as Sunday night when futures open if this has any potential.
@derryb said:
As I said earlier if the SLV price rises and the spot price does not follow then the SLV shorts will eat the SLV longs as the price stabilizes to match the spot price. The smart play might just be to short SLV once is rises and spot doesn't.
And that is exactly what has happened to GME. People are not going to short SLV.
The difference is that buyers and sellers of GME set the price of GME. SLV price which tracks spot price can only be temporarily raised out of sync with spot before it is stabilized once again by spot price. Unless SLV can suddenly drive spot instead of the historical procedure of spot driving SLV, a premium with SLV can only be temporary. Ultimately the buyers and sellers of futures contracts determine the price of SLV.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
As I said earlier if the SLV price rises and the spot price does not follow then the SLV shorts will eat the SLV longs as the price stabilizes to match the spot price. The smart play might just be to short SLV once is rises and spot doesn't.
And that is exactly what has happened to GME. People are not going to short SLV.
You are forgetting the SLV tracks spot price. Any variation is only temporary. Personally, I hope the Reddits can pull it off, I hold a lot of silver. I just don't see it happening unless they can instill panic in the futures players who play in a completely different stadium. The difference between a stock (GME) and a derivative (SLV) cannot be overstated.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@3stars said:
If you really think silver is going to be the next big pump, I’ll sell you mine at $100 an ounce right now, this way you don’t miss out on the way to $1000.
Sorry for undercutting you by $70, but I'll sell out @ $30.
@carew4me said:
There is no evidence that the Reddit crowd is looking at the silver market. SLV volume is heavy but in no way outsized. It was heavier in August.
Sure looks like they were doing more than looking at it to me....
Wallstreetbets say Silver short squeeze AFTER GME and AMC short squeeze is over, done, over , fini.
@3stars said:
If you really think silver is going to be the next big pump, I’ll sell you mine at $100 an ounce right now, this way you don’t miss out on the way to $1000.
Sorry for undercutting you by $70, but I'll sell out @ $30.
Prove it. List all you got on the BST thread for $30 Oz. Shows us that big old stack of "gutter metal".
@3stars said:
If you really think silver is going to be the next big pump, I’ll sell you mine at $100 an ounce right now, this way you don’t miss out on the way to $1000.
Sorry for undercutting you by $70, but I'll sell out @ $30.
Prove it. List all you got on the BST thread for $30 Oz. Shows us that big old stack of "gutter metal".
Selling local, no shipping, instant cash with full premium. THKS!
@3stars said:
If you really think silver is going to be the next big pump, I’ll sell you mine at $100 an ounce right now, this way you don’t miss out on the way to $1000.
Sorry for undercutting you by $70, but I'll sell out @ $30.
Prove it. List all you got on the BST thread for $30 Oz. Shows us that big old stack of "gutter metal".
Selling local, no shipping, instant cash with full premium. THKS!
Looks like your ** _BUYING_** in the BST thread..you ol boiler room shorter you.
"An image of you... and of me... and we're laughing and loving it all..."
fear alone of what happened to GME will drive silver up in the short term. However, attacking the SLV shorts is far from the same as attacking the GME shorts. SLV does not set the spot price; spot sets the price of SLV when SLV is not temporarily under the control of redibandits. As I said earlier, SLV shorts will eventually cure out of whack SLV longs.
But, if one sees opportunity during this temporary fiasco, they can double that money maker by going with AGQ.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
fear alone of what happened to GME will drive silver up in the short term. However, attacking the SLV shorts is far from the same as attacking the GME shorts. SLV does not set the spot price; spot sets the price of SLV when SLV is not temporarily under the control of redibandits. As I said earlier, SLV shorts will eventually cure out of whack SLV longs.
But, if one sees opportunity during this temporary fiasco, they can double that money maker by going with AGQ.
There are not a lot people that are short the SLV shares directly, so it won’t be a squeeze in shares directly.
But some firms sold all of the call options in the last couple of days, and they will have to hedge that exposure by buying back the calls, buying shares of SLV, or getting long silver via futures.
And this is not just a US event. Lots of people across the world have been following Wallstreetbets. They have 7.4 million users. A couple of weeks ago, they had less than 2 million.
Our financial markets are largely just a casino at this point. Personally I have been hedging with puts on SPY and QQQ for a few months. It was a loosing trade until last week 😉
I posted this info on the US coin thread, but will also drop it here, to reach the mainly precious metals crowd.
I didn't know about this site previously. But came across it today.
Futures on the SLV ETF are trading currently between $29 and $30.
The SLV ETF closed @ around $25 on Friday.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Yeah, I never heard of them before.
Not sure if the product represents 1 share of SLV, but some of the hourly trading volumes were greater than 400K earlier today.
Yeah, I never heard of them before.
Not sure if the product represents 1 share of SLV, but some of the hourly trading volumes were greater than 400K earlier today.
SLV normally tracks spot and spot hangs close to futures but I think we are going to see a wide divergence shortly. Hysteria is gonna drive SLV up, remains to be seen if SLV can drive futures. When heads cool, the relationship between SLV and spot will normalize. Question remains - "will it normalize at a much higher price?" I'm closely watching ASE tube availability and price on ebay and it tells me there is very strong demand for ASEs leading up to the 6 pm opening of the NY Globex. What will be more interesting will be the Asian response to the madness later this evening. I expect them to carry the football for extra yardage.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
SLV closed at 25.29 on Friday.
SLV futures just hit 30.25.
While silver futures exchange trading resumes today at 6 pm and carries into the night it will be interesting to see what SLV does in the premarket at 8 in the morning. Its fate will likely be cast as early as 4 am when direct access broker crank up pre-pre-market trading.
This means the big guns that the redit brigade plans to attack will have up to a four hour head start on making positioning their defense.
Brings back fond memories of my football game where plastic players moved on a vibrating playing field.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
^^^ I expect wide divergence in the various markets for a while.
Not sure which will get further out of whack between SLV, physical and futures.
Since the size of futures market is huge there could be more money thrown at that market to try and limit the swings in the other two.
But who knows, I think we are in uncharted territory at this point. Lol
@derryb said:
SLV closed at 25.29 on Friday.
SLV futures just hit 30.25.
While silver futures exchange trading resumes today at 6 pm and carries into the night it will be interesting to see what SLV does in the premarket at 8 in the morning. Its fate will likely be cast as early as 4 am when direct access broker crank up pre-pre-market trading.
SLV actually trades on some brokerages on Sunday nights.
I think Etrade starts at 8:00 pm EST tonight.
@derryb said:
SLV closed at 25.29 on Friday.
SLV futures just hit 30.25.
While silver futures exchange trading resumes today at 6 pm and carries into the night it will be interesting to see what SLV does in the premarket at 8 in the morning. Its fate will likely be cast as early as 4 am when direct access broker crank up pre-pre-market trading.
SLV actually trades on some brokerages on Sunday nights.
I think Etrade starts at 8:00 pm EST tonight.
I did not know this. Appears that E-trade has an Extended Hours Overnight Session (Sunday through Thursday 8:00 p.m. to 7:00 a.m. for certain ETFs that does include SLV.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
^^^ I have traded other ETF's on Sunday nights at Etrade. Mainly GLD and SH.
I do own some SLV shares, so may have to let a few go tonight in it trades $30+.
Come Monday's open the big guns show up and may try to push it back down.
Appears my Sink or Swim platform with TD Ameritrade offers the same overnight trading that goes live at 8pm Sunday. I will be watching the SLV action live!
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@meluaufeet
This si why I need to leave robinhood. Are there other free trade brokers anyone here can recommend? I dont like the feeling that I cant unload my shares or im not being allowed into trades with these guys.
Cant believe they expect to IPO. at this rate, theyll be lucky to survive.
@goldrealmoney79 said: @meluaufeet
This si why I need to leave robinhood. Are there other free trade brokers anyone here can recommend? I dont like the feeling that I cant unload my shares or im not being allowed into trades with these guys.
Cant believe they expect to IPO. at this rate, theyll be lucky to survive.
RH is the best game in town for cryptos. For everything else I use TD Ameritrade, but there are other reputable discount brokers.
RH takes to long to process cash into and out of your account.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Comments
Even better!!
blitzbro has opened my eyes further...and ears (All I hear now is Bulgarian silence!)
so THAT MEANS ...the (Banksters + Bros) will unite to drive the price "To Da Moon®" !
◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊
blitzbro...thank you!...no ones made a better case to get on board the Silver Train® than you
Loves me some shiny!
Sounds like robinhood just put the brakes on the Choo-Choo. Back to the gutter perhaps. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
So, who's buying SLV Monday? Go ahead, speak up.
@derryb Aren't you the one all along that said the spot price of silver has nothing to do with the actual price of silver?
Aren't the reddit folks talking about getting SLV to spike, not actual silver prices. There is a big difference is there not?
From the little I read, they want to get SLV to the price they think Silver spot should actually be trading at which has nothing to do with actual trading in silver.
I may be confused on what you wrote.
Why not double the fun with AGQ?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I don't even know what's going on here... A bunch of young whipper snappers talking about some squeezes and some shorts. Sounds like they be fixen' to make lemonade on a hot summer day.
I've said all along that the true value of silver has nothing to do with spot price. However, the price of silver has always been based on spot price plus a premium, depending on the product. The difference between value and price is what normally drives markets. A futures market provides a means to interfere with with normal price discovery that is based on true supply and true demand. FWIW commodity futures markets were created and designed to protect both producers and consumers of commodities from volatile prices swings. They have protected the farmers and food producers and the miners and jewelers of this country for decades. Unfortunately they also provide profit opportunity for speculators who have learned to use the tools of the futures exchange to their advantage. And worse, they are used by governments who have their bidding agents protect their currencies. Commodities futures market participants should be limited to true producers and large consumers of the commodity. Speculators and government trading agents should be limited to non-commodity markets.
The more that premium increases (the more you pay for physical over spot) then the less dependent physical silver is on spot price. Even if premiums were 1000% they would still be based on spot price. It is the futures market shorts that keep the spot price of silver from reflecting the true value of silver. Until buyers and sellers of silver refuse to factor in spot price, or until spot price ceases with a failure in the futures market, spot will always be the base for silver prices.
With GME, the reddit crowd was able to kick the shorters in the shorts because by going long in actual GME and driving up its price it put a squeeze on those shorting actual GME who suddenly became subject to margin calls. It's a bit different with silver. The etf SLV (like GLD) is a derivative that tracks the spot price in the futures market. SLV is not the silver spot market, it is affected by the spot market. SLV price rises and falls unilaterally with the price on the futures market. I don't see where driving up the price of the etf SLV will squeeze the shorters on the futures exchange. Driving up SLV will only squeeze those who have shorted the SLV. It will simply become overpriced (with money being made by sellers on the way up) when compared to what is is designed to track. The way to squeeze the exchange shorts is to increase the longs on the exchange itself to the point where all those shorts are forced to become longs which will set the spot price of silver free. Shorting futures is just not an option for the reddit crowd, it is done primarily by bullion banks and players who likely don't even read reddit.
SLV is a mirror of the futures price; it does not determine futures price. Raising the price of SLV above any noticeable amount over spot would simply give the SLV shorts (those who think spot will go down) a shot at butchering the SLV longs (those who think spot will keep going up). While sudden buying SLV may temporarily raise the price of SLV it will not raise the price of spot. By design, SLV will return to near spot price simply because it is a reflection of spot price, not spot price itself. As always, anyone who helps drive the price of SLV up will suffer if spot does not go up. Spot drives the price of the etf, it is not the other way around.
I suspect the recent rise in PMs is a gut reaction by hopeful speculators that believe or hope that the reddit gang can actually influence the futures market. Well, they have temporarily, but likely with a false hope. Trading next week will tell the whole story as one closely compares silver spot vs. SLV. I for one await the opening bell.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
they fixin to become the lemons once the shorters skin them. Driving up the price of SLV (without spot price following it) simply means someone paid more for SLV than they should have - a shorter's paradise.
Any sign that SLV is jumping and spot silver ain't playing along is to me a sign to short SLV. For those that don't have the knowledge, ability or experience to short, there's alwaya ZSL, X2 silver inverse, the opposite of AGQ.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Anyone remember Buy an ounce of silver, Crash JP Morgan ?
I read the Reddit silver short thing and it says over the next few months they could put the squeeze on silver, not just by targeting SLV, but the silver miners and actually purchasing physical silver.
Think 2 million new silver buyers, scooping up a few ozs, or hundreds (thousands?) depending on how much they gained in the GameStop AMC or other squeezes we saw this week... it will be interesting to watch
It's all about what the people want...
Don’t underestimate the number of people that will be looking at buying silver. I can see the thought process now. If you missed your chance at GME from $4 to $300+, now is your next chance with silver. And silver really does have value compared to a retailer in a dying business model.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/reddit-preparing-unleash-worlds-biggest-short-squeeze-silver
I was already holding a position in the SLV etf and added some Jan, 2022 $30 calls a few days ago. I won’t be surprised if SLV is trading north of $30 long before next year, maybe Monday
Just in case, i bought a mixed bag of physical. Bitcoin and ethereum tokens for fun, some maple leafs. But dogecoin rounds...wow, much price.
@DNADave, those blocks put it all in perspective. As famous shiba inu would say.... Very scare!
SLV owns an "investment in silver." This does not mean it owns actual silver.
JP Morgan is the custodian for SLV. JPM owns loads of silver. Holders of JPM's etf SLV do not own silver, JPM owns the silver.
If one wants an etf that actually holds silver he should consider PSLV.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The zerohedge article is what I was trying to say to @derryb:
When SLV issues shares, the custodian is forced to true up their vaults with the proportional amount of silver daily. From the SLV prospectus:
"An investment in Shares is: Backed by silver held by the Custodian on behalf of the Trust. The Shares are backed by the assets of the Trust. "
Doesn't this contradict what @derryb wrote?
"Raising the price of SLV above any noticeable amount over spot would simply give the SLV shorts (those who think spot will go down) a shot at butchering the SLV longs (those who think spot will keep going up). While sudden buying SLV may temporarily raise the price of SLV it will not raise the price of spot. By design, SLV will return to near spot price simply because it is a reflection of spot price, not spot price itself."
I am not trying to be argumentative but honestly wondering if this could actually work. If I go long SLV or SLV calls and the price increases dramatically from a short squeeze, how will I not benefit? Based on the zero hedge article, SLV will have to buy actual physical silver driving up the spot price.
JPM is the custodian of SLV. This means JPM, with it's reported (but unconfirmed) massive position in physical silver is backing SLV.
"The shares are backed by the assets of the Trust" is meaningless if the Trust (SLV) has little to no assets. JPM owns the assets, not the trust. It's all a smokescreen to reduce the perceived third party risk when investing in SLV.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
If you really think silver is going to be the next big pump, I’ll sell you mine at $100 an ounce right now, this way you don’t miss out on the way to $1000.
The trust is supposed to hold physical silver to back the shares that are issued. You can access a 9000 page list of the bars they hold. Some people don’t believe that they are always owing the bars they list. Tinfoil hat crowd.
I think the play in silver may have merit but I also just hold the GLD and SLV etfs as an inflation hedge against my other stock holdings. Any potential increase caused by a attempted squeeze is just a bonus.
The SLV fund could trade at a discount or premium to nav for short periods of time. The SLV fund was trading at a discount of -1.88% at Friday’s close. It looks like they held the price near $25 to have most of the $25 put and call options expire worthless. The call options volume and open qty have increased greatly in the last two days in SLV. Option price time premiums are also rising. It likely that the options I bought Wednesday and Thursday will double, just because of the expansion in time premium.
The SLV funds website they list the number of oz held in the trust each day. It rose around 5% in the last 2 days. If it keeps up at that pace, the rise in the physical silver market should happen.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund
Counter party risk includes a level of faith in what a prospectus says. When a fund blows up so does its promises.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
And that could happen if the group of stock and call buyers actually cause a long term squeeze like what is happening with GME. In this case the fund just wouldn’t be able to acquire the needed bars to back the shares being issued. Not sure if they would stop issuing more shares that can’t be backed by silver and let the price trade above NAV or issue shares that don’t have physical backing.
If the price was to move up very fast, I would exit most of stocks and options to lock in any gains.
I’m not greedy, a quick move > $40 would work for me😀
Like GME at $300, there is no way I would play that game hoping for even higher prices.
As I said earlier if the SLV price rises and the spot price does not follow then the SLV shorts will eat the SLV longs as the price stabilizes back down to match the spot price. The smart play might just be to short SLV once is rises and spot doesn't.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
They are betting that if a ton of investors go long SLV, then the trust will have to buy silver pushing up the spot price and the SLV shorts will have to cover. I guess we will have to wait and see if this actually happens. Should be a fun week.
Did GME issue new shares during it's entire fiasco? I think you will find that SLV will not need new shares to meet increased demand. More demand raises the price because it takes more dollars to pry existing shares from the hands of current longs. It's all a matter of existing shares changing hands with the level of demand setting the price.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
And that is exactly what has happened to GME. People are not going to short SLV.
Take a look at the call options volume and open interest for the upcoming months.
They will force a “gamma squeeze “ as the price of SLV rises. Well at least that is what they’re betting on.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SLV|20220121|30.00C/options?expiration=2021-02-05-w
If there are a ton of buyers willing to pay more than current price then they will find a ton of sellers willing to take profit. The more sellers hold out when there are a ton of buyers, the higher the price will go.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
And that is what the SLV call option is for
As I explained earlier there is a major difference in SLV and GME. A rising price in the common stock GME puts a direct squeeze on those who are shorting the stock. Whereas SLV is a derivative whose price is determined by the spot price of an underlying asset, silver. The reddit gang can only squeeze SLV shorts. Unless they take their game directly to the futures market they cannot "squeeze" those who set the spot price of silver in the futures market.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Thanks for the fun discussion and helping me push up my post count @derryb . Time for bed
It’s likely that hedge funds and richer investors will buy futures.
We will know as soon as Sunday night when futures open if this has any potential.
The difference is that buyers and sellers of GME set the price of GME. SLV price which tracks spot price can only be temporarily raised out of sync with spot before it is stabilized once again by spot price. Unless SLV can suddenly drive spot instead of the historical procedure of spot driving SLV, a premium with SLV can only be temporary. Ultimately the buyers and sellers of futures contracts determine the price of SLV.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
You are forgetting the SLV tracks spot price. Any variation is only temporary. Personally, I hope the Reddits can pull it off, I hold a lot of silver. I just don't see it happening unless they can instill panic in the futures players who play in a completely different stadium. The difference between a stock (GME) and a derivative (SLV) cannot be overstated.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Sorry for undercutting you by $70, but I'll sell out @ $30.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Wallstreetbets say Silver short squeeze AFTER GME and AMC short squeeze is over, done, over , fini.
Prove it. List all you got on the BST thread for $30 Oz. Shows us that big old stack of "gutter metal".
Loves me some shiny!
Selling local, no shipping, instant cash with full premium. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Looks like your
** _BUYING_** 
in the BST thread..you ol boiler room shorter you. 
"An image of you... and of me... and we're laughing and loving it all..."
Loves me some shiny!
30 might get me to dump some generic bars.
fear alone of what happened to GME will drive silver up in the short term. However, attacking the SLV shorts is far from the same as attacking the GME shorts. SLV does not set the spot price; spot sets the price of SLV when SLV is not temporarily under the control of redibandits. As I said earlier, SLV shorts will eventually cure out of whack SLV longs.
But, if one sees opportunity during this temporary fiasco, they can double that money maker by going with AGQ.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There are not a lot people that are short the SLV shares directly, so it won’t be a squeeze in shares directly.
But some firms sold all of the call options in the last couple of days, and they will have to hedge that exposure by buying back the calls, buying shares of SLV, or getting long silver via futures.
And this is not just a US event. Lots of people across the world have been following Wallstreetbets. They have 7.4 million users. A couple of weeks ago, they had less than 2 million.
Our financial markets are largely just a casino at this point. Personally I have been hedging with puts on SPY and QQQ for a few months. It was a loosing trade until last week 😉
I posted this info on the US coin thread, but will also drop it here, to reach the mainly precious metals crowd.
I didn't know about this site previously. But came across it today.
Futures on the SLV ETF are trading currently between $29 and $30.
The SLV ETF closed @ around $25 on Friday.
https://ftx.com/trade/SLV-0326
There doesn't seem to be any activity in GLD ETF at the same site.
https://ftx.com/trade/GLD-0326
nice futures chart, thanks
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Yeah, I never heard of them before.
Not sure if the product represents 1 share of SLV, but some of the hourly trading volumes were greater than 400K earlier today.
SLV normally tracks spot and spot hangs close to futures but I think we are going to see a wide divergence shortly. Hysteria is gonna drive SLV up, remains to be seen if SLV can drive futures. When heads cool, the relationship between SLV and spot will normalize. Question remains - "will it normalize at a much higher price?" I'm closely watching ASE tube availability and price on ebay and it tells me there is very strong demand for ASEs leading up to the 6 pm opening of the NY Globex. What will be more interesting will be the Asian response to the madness later this evening. I expect them to carry the football for extra yardage.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
SLV closed at 25.29 on Friday.
SLV futures just hit 30.25.
While silver futures exchange trading resumes today at 6 pm and carries into the night it will be interesting to see what SLV does in the premarket at 8 in the morning. Its fate will likely be cast as early as 4 am when direct access broker crank up pre-pre-market trading.
This means the big guns that the redit brigade plans to attack will have up to a four hour head start on making positioning their defense.
Brings back fond memories of my football game where plastic players moved on a vibrating playing field.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
^^^ I expect wide divergence in the various markets for a while.
Not sure which will get further out of whack between SLV, physical and futures.
Since the size of futures market is huge there could be more money thrown at that market to try and limit the swings in the other two.
But who knows, I think we are in uncharted territory at this point. Lol
SLV actually trades on some brokerages on Sunday nights.
I think Etrade starts at 8:00 pm EST tonight.
I did not know this. Appears that E-trade has an Extended Hours Overnight Session (Sunday through Thursday 8:00 p.m. to 7:00 a.m. for certain ETFs that does include SLV.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
^^^ I have traded other ETF's on Sunday nights at Etrade. Mainly GLD and SH.
I do own some SLV shares, so may have to let a few go tonight in it trades $30+.
Come Monday's open the big guns show up and may try to push it back down.
Appears my Sink or Swim platform with TD Ameritrade offers the same overnight trading that goes live at 8pm Sunday. I will be watching the SLV action live!
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@meluaufeet
This si why I need to leave robinhood. Are there other free trade brokers anyone here can recommend? I dont like the feeling that I cant unload my shares or im not being allowed into trades with these guys.
Cant believe they expect to IPO. at this rate, theyll be lucky to survive.
RH is the best game in town for cryptos. For everything else I use TD Ameritrade, but there are other reputable discount brokers.
RH takes to long to process cash into and out of your account.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey