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The coming Vaccines and metals. Thoughts?
MsMorrisine
Posts: 32,203 ✭✭✭✭✭
was the rise really all about C-19 ?
Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
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MsMorrisine
Posts: 32,203 ✭✭✭✭✭
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I've never lived through such tumultuous, unprecedented and unpredictable times, and I've been around awhile.
I'm baffled by what metal prices have done and are doing during these times. They make no sense to me.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
The rise was about uncontrolled money spending and a rouge group of lunatics porously destabilizing our planet. Covid definitely added to the equation but only a piece of it. We may have effective vaccines on the way which is great news but with the current outbreak it looks like shutdowns are around the corner again. More bailouts, printing and debt to come. Would love to add more gold but still too expensive for me. Glad I unloaded a substantial portion of the gutter metal when I did. Will turn the proceeds into the metal of kings if and when the price is right.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I would think at least some support for PMs would come with the stimulus actions coming and widespread vaccine distribution isn't for months. there's lots of time for Congress and Janet "Spigot" Yellen (not partisan politics ... Congress is already thinking stimulus and she's slated for the treasury job) to issue more debt.
Like all the QE since 2008, we are about to get a second round of the multi-trillion $ covid bailout, which is nothing short of QE on steroids acid. Metals will then resume their rise. Bitcoin is taking a bit of the glitter from gold but another, usual, sudden BC drop will cure that ailment.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
10yr trending higher lows, and a outlook for growth in 2nd qtr, gold has head winds. Hedge funds going short on GDX, TLT. GLD won't be far behind. Stocks that went up with Covid are now being sold. Why fight the move, when there are less volatility sectors to roll with. I'll be more than happy to get back in to PM/PM Miners in a big way when the market starts to eye 3qtr '21. Looking forward to it.
the economists and market players see an upturn.
they aren't doctors.
this is going to hinge on a vaccine then people taking the vaccine. it is going to take some months to get the masses vaccinated or at least the ones that will take it.
in my non-doctor and non-economist(may be a plus for me on that) q2 is optimistic.
https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933343086/despite-encouraging-pfizer-news-widespread-vaccination-is-months-away
Oh, and while we have received data on 3 vaccine candidates, the fda has blessed none of them yet.
Its the 2nd qtr 2020 comps. Bar is so low.
I'll humbly exempt anyone who's offended, but nobody here otherwise knows male cow poo about when PM prices will go up or go down.
The only advice here that makes sense is to buy when prices are low, and hold if you're loaded until when inflation FINALLY
hits.
When we're in the SHTF territory, we're back to nobody here knows the aforementioned male cow poo.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Courtesy of @dpoole, I think we have a new acronym.... MCP... The acceptable form of B___ S___ for the forum....
Cheers, RickO
Some have a degree in bovine scatology
I agree with @dpoole, it's funny that people think one set of drunken sailors leaving town while another set comes in changes things. The layers of complexity means a lot of old rules don't make sense. I call it 3-D chess...some people play that and some people play checkers. Covid, Bitcoin and playing chicken with Billionaires means I'm just watching for a while.
Is it not really a matter of understanding what the dollar is likely to do? While there are short and intermediate term gyrations PMs simply follow it's lead in the long term, albeit in the other direction.
I believe it is pretty obvious what the dollar is likely to do.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I might decide to wait on both the vaccine and more metals. I want to see Bill Gates and Warren Buffett sidle up to the bar for their injections before I even think about it.
I knew it would happen.
https://www.intellectualtakeout.org/covidgate--the-corruption-of-clinical-trials--part-one-/
I'll be second in line to get the vaccine, right after the essential workers get theirs.
I'll let you know how it goes.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
I'd take one now, while everyone else waits for the official stamp of approval.
I'd definitely take the sanofi-gsk one via op warp speed once it comes out... or if.
I predict a final vaccine will require two injections every three months. I'll pass. Like the flu, I believe corona viruses are here to stay. Time will be the cure as our bodies develop natural ways to fight them off. Can I say this on Twitter? lol
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
esssentially no extra deaths due to covid-19
https://web.archive.org/web/20201126223119/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Fear of the unknown is more often worse than fear of the known.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I read this article. In summary, there doesn't appear to be an increase in the % of deaths in the elderly population do to COVID because they were going to die anyway. Crazy!
Everyone should get a flu shot every year and, if you are 65 or older, a pneumococcal shot with frequency based on physician recommendations. The COVID vaccine should eventually be part of this regimen. Saying that the viruses are here to stay doesn't address the global impact if no one (or at the very least - not every one) took these vaccines.
Chester, I disagree. I’ve never had the flu shot and never will. There is no way I’d put a shot in me for this one, ever.
Metals sideways until the next market forced/designed crash. Root for the robin hood and wsb folks to drive things instead of DC...pay attention.
...and you call yourself a Dr.!!
While I am not a dr I did study chemistry toward anesthesiology before a change of mind, I’ll take science over hype on this one for a good stretch.
Did they ever take thimersol out of the flu shots? Just curious.
I knew it would happen.
Yes, most flu vaccine is thimerasol free. You need to ask your doctor or pharmacist to make sure they aren't using the one with it. 90% is preservative free.
I'm not taking their vaccine until a year after Bill Gates, Fauci and Warren Buffett take theirs.
I knew it would happen.
Always, always, always look for the source of your information, and then question that source.
I was suspicious that the article above was sourced from somewhere other than its origin.
There is a reason for that.
A closer look at U.S. deaths due to COVID-19
By YANNI GU | November 27, 2020
Editor’s Note: After The News-Letter published this article on Nov. 22, it was brought to our attention that our coverage of Genevieve Briand’s presentation “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data” has been used to support dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic.
We decided on Nov. 26 to retract this article to stop the spread of misinformation, as we noted on social media. However, it is our responsibility as journalists to provide a historical record. We have chosen to take down the article from our website, but it is available here as a PDF.
As assistant director for the Master’s in Applied Economics program at Hopkins, Briand is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher. At her talk, she herself stated that more research and data are needed to understand the effects of COVID-19 in the U.S.
Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19. Additionally, Briand presented data of total U.S. deaths in comparison to COVID-19-related deaths as a proportion percentage, which trivializes the repercussions of the pandemic. This evidence does not disprove the severity of COVID-19; an increase in excess deaths is not represented in these proportionalities because they are offered as percentages, not raw numbers.
Briand also claimed in her analysis that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may be incorrectly categorized as COVID-19-related deaths. However, COVID-19 disproportionately affects those with preexisting conditions, so those with those underlying conditions are statistically more likely to be severely affected and die from the virus.
Because of these inaccuracies and our failure to provide additional information about the effects of COVID-19, The News-Letter decided to retract this article. It is our duty as a publication to combat the spread of misinformation and to enhance our fact-checking process. We apologize to our readers.
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
--Severian the Lame