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Are prices making you buy less?
Copyboy1
Posts: 468 ✭✭✭✭
Man, I collect football and I've been trying to finish a rookie HOF set. (I'm currently #37 on the PSA list). But I can't even afford to buy cards anymore! I had 6 cards I bid on last night. I bid OVER the highest auction price this year for each and was still outbid by DOUBLE!
I sure hope the card world isn't going to end up like art world - with the good stuff only affordable by the rich.
Thoughts? Have you cut back buying cards because it's too expensive now?
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Comments
I was buying about fifty (50) cards per month up through June. For July through October, I bought SIX total. Prices got real crazy, real quick.
I know prices have softened quite a bit over the last few weeks, but I have not seen many (if any) great deals for what I collect. And box prices are still pretty outrageous for my wallet.
I probably just need a few more months to wrap my head around these new price points before I start collecting again.
I'm hoping it's just a wave that will recede. But for example, a month ago, I bought 3 cards - $40, $150, $315. They got lost in the mail. I've been waiting, hoping the USPS would find them. But if I had to go buy those same 3 cards again today? $200, $425 and $650. I just can't do it.
wrong time to buy football. historically it didn't matter if it were vintage, but look at what happened in the vintage b-ball market. once the discord groups entered every boat rose, then as the season ended the boats fell w the outgoing tide. same will happen here. be patient.
I'm in the same boat. Many of the cards I need for my registry sets have been very high priced or way higher than I want to pay at auction. The current market has made me very selective on what I go after. I guess it is a good thing if you are a seller. But as a buyer it is tough right now.
Picked up a Bob Hayes rookie(no vintage explosion for his yet) month and a half ago, and have back-burnered my football buying until after the season. For now I look lot smarter than I am in picking up Dickerson, Elway, Marcus Allen, Derrick Thomas etc in the years and early months this year before covid card fever struck.
Gentlemen,
Here's my thoughts to all you guys lamenting the new price craze happening in the Card World. If you could expand your world from just the Little Pieces of cardboard with Men's pictures on them, there is a whole world of OTHER subjects of cards out there!
Non Sports prices have for the most part stayed the same (Or Gone Down) for at least a decade. As an Example: When I got back into it earlier this year I picked up 3 WWII uncut sheets, the EXACT sheets I previously Owned and Sold, for 1/3 and 1/5th of what I had sold them for in 2012!
There are so many Cool and Interesting Cards to collect besides "Pictures of Men"! Grow, Expand, Lift your Horizons!!!
YeeHah!
Neil
I agree! Right now though, I'm trying to downsize my collection. So I'm selling off everything but the cream of my football crop (plus a dozen or so mint NBA rookies) and putting that cash back into my high-grade NFL rookie HOF set. At some point, there's a 1966 Topps Batman set in my future...
I’ve been in the market for a particular card for a while. A nice example came up on eBay, BIN was out of the universe but there was a BO option. Feeling frisky, I put in an offer that would have been the highest ever for that card in that grade. The offer was auto rejected.
So yeah, sellers definitely think it’s their market and us buyers just have to wait it out.
I'm a hockey player collector (Patrick Roy), and from April through August I went on a buying frenzy as everything else went up. Prices stayed low and stable across the vast majority of the hockey market. Since September, the boat on hockey has risen, especially 90's inserts. I've been selling off everything else in my collection to help pay for PC cards with the higher prices.
Main collecting focus is Patrick Roy playing days 85/86-02/03, expect 1/1, National/All-Star stamped cards.PC Completion: 2,548/2,952; 86.31% My Patrick Roy PC Website:https://proy33collector.weebly.com
Football in the summer, baseball in the winter is usually the right plan. Not so with Covid and everyone spending hours on eBay or just finding a new found interest in collecting. Plus flippers are involved and selling for profit.
Example. I was buying Allen Auto RC’s for under $200 in May. Same card #/25 are listed over $1200-2500. Might not sell but I’m not buying.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
For all intents and purposes, I'm done collecting. It's just that what I like and enjoy is no longer practical--and has become, in most instances, impossible.
I would go on quarterly sprees and picked up 10-15 cards per month. Now I add 2 or 3 raw commons from Gregmorriscards every couple weeks and a handful of 25-50 dollar items each month.
Sadly, I don't see a return to affordability in what I collect.
Pretty bummed, actually.
Good news is I have a decent collection. Bad news is...it can't grow now. It was fun though.
Now I'll focus on oddball items.
"You've gotta be a man to play this game...but you'd better have a lot of little boy in you, too"--Roy Campanella
I spend the same amount, just get less for it. I am 90% a collector, so I am not too concerned with flipping or profiting later.
I know that My Tom Brady Rookie collection is at a total standstill. I will not be adding any more unless there is a price regression. I am happy with what I have though.
that is one thing this massive price hike has done for me, reflection. I have been able to go through and really appreciate what I have instead of constantly moving on to the next thing, and the next, and the next, etc.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I collect early UFC / MMA cards... and prices were climbing then Gary V did a podcast on UFC cards and then prices got stupid. Many of the old collectors are thinking of leaving or giving up
i also agree i want to buy a derrick thomas score psa 10 for score rookie hall of fame collection and his card is way over priced for me. i have tried to bid what the going rate that it is going for now and still get outbid. a year ago i could have had that card for 60.00 dollars now forget it.
I’ve decided to purchase common GU Jersey cards between $10-20. If it’s a hobby than I’m having fun.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
I have bought a lot fewer graded '59 Baseball recently for my set, because of the craziness with the market. Recently I bought 12 boxes of 2020 Bowman Chrome Baseball when the shelves were being re-stocked at Walmart. I'm much more about vintage than modern cards, but I know I could make some coin on these, and put it back into vintage, and not feel so bad about buying 59's at all-time high prices. I don't mind breaking even on cards, as was mentioned above collecting is for fun. However, like everyone else I don't want to take major losses selling in the future, because I bought tons of vintage cards during the 2020 Corona Card Boom. Maybe there will be a price correction? Maybe these prices are the new norm? We shall see.
With the current US tax code, low interest rates, etc. The people that have money have a TON of money with nowhere to put it. Like the stock market they've infused our market with disposable cash. Those who will drop out of our market will do so over the next six months as stimulus money, eviction policies, COVID, etc. run their course. The top end may never dip much, middle of the road grades, lesser HOFers, etc. will likely see a price drop. I'm winning less, spending less, but still finding below VCP in graded HOFers with great diligence.
The prices have certainly slowed down my purchases. I'm using it as an opportunity to get some of my backlog of submissions into PSA using quarterly specials or bulk options.
Jason
Personal Collection | Willie Woodburn | Legion of Doom
I’ve got some great deals the past few months. I always wait for the bargains, and never bid stupid because I have to have it.
No, I'm just buying different these days. It helps having a couple different collecting directions, and be able to shift when market conditions change.
ive read a few exchanges in regards to a certain wall street wolf (not gary v) and his entrance into the market. he was basically kicking himself that he hadn't parked more of his portfolio into the high graded cardboard market previously, while also eluding that from his stance and what he knows regarding his peers and colleagues jumping on board is that us "collectors" don't really understand just how good we had it.
still trying to wrap my head around that second comment nd whether or not is was condescending. regardless though, i'm tending to think he might have been right.
and for the record, he was hitting on some very obvious bullet points about why he was kicking himself about not entering "the market" a few years back when a friend suggested he look into it after a strong mantle sale.
and probably a few more things that i'm not remembering off the top of my head.
When they start moving into the truly rare and not just condition rare, I'm a bazillionaire.
I am primarily an 80s unopened baseball collector and spent far more pre-pandemic than I do today. I also would buy some modern boxes and a handful of modern singles. My usual Heritage, Heritage High, Topps Chrome and Archives will probably be skipped if prices don’t recede.
As for 80s BBC unopened, it’s tough to justify adding a whole lot of boxes and packs to the collection at these price points. But I do look for occasional deal. Picked up extra 83T Michigan boxes from BBCE and couple of FASC boxes. Also a couple rack boxes that I saw at decent prices. But probably a 75% reduction from last year.
John
the story of the kid that bought that giannis rpa turned into a millionaire over night, so you never know.
i've also seen an uptick in golf cards moving the past couple of weeks, so you could be on to something. 😉
I'm wondering about number 6 on the list.
Maybe with the tough year some easing of the capital gains tax.
If so then 2020 will turn out to be a good year to make some sales.
Haven't asked my accountant about it yet but seems like in tough financial times the Gov.
usually tries to make things a little easier on taxpayers.
there wasn't much context, but i'm curious as well. i'm assuming as a company set up in a tax friendly state to begin or perhaps offshore holding/selling company? well above my pay grade.
Shell corp w/multiple accounts in various non-extradition countries always works well. Or so I've heard.
if there is any silver lining to the crazy prices, I made my single biggest sale ever this year!
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I've deleted one post here. With the talk of tax implications, etc., let's please not let this thread take a political turn.
everything for me has always been a deal to deal basis. I do not look to spend money just to do it. I have been very lucky buying stuff early, and I have sold way too early on more cards that I can care to remember. I was buying a few 70s and 80s HOF rcs in football when 80s baseball was going through the roof but I was not smart enough to pony up the cash to buy a few cards I really wanted. Those cards of course sky rocketed. I try to zig when others zag as much as possible while still getting what I like. My end goal is not to profit but to fund building my collection. So as much as I am able to do that I am grateful.
One problem I have is I collect so many players in baseball/football. I never sell anything, I probably should but I like it all. I even have many multiples of some cards that I want to keep. In my mind I am making them more scarce by keeping them. So yeah prices are hard right now, but I'm with Rex, Keep buying those HOFers and wait for the deal on a case by case basis
i will take responsibility here, simply by opening the door. that's a big my bad. should have seen that coming and completely dropped the ball.
Truthfully, I don't even recall who posted it. I just read, realized it had the potential to push things a different way and deleted. Not a world ending situation, but I appreciate the honesty on your part.
Very interesting & entertaining year for cards.
My highest quantity & dollar amount in my 12 years of chasing cardboard.
Breaking the year down in phases:
1: got lucky early in the year with key want-list items before the big runup
2: noticing the start of major price increases on 80s/90's/Modern, I hopped on my "future" want-list items and starting buying with both hands.
3: scoured the almost-HOF RC list, again started buying with both hands.
4: as modern spiked higher & higher, I quickly shifted to my Vintage wish list.
5: the vintage surge began. I became overly cautious and extremely critical with any vintage (centering)
6: buying on the back burner as I blew thru my annual budget
Most overanxious purchase: 2010 Bowman Platinum Trout. Spent $150 too much. I figured he's on the way to $1000 in no time.
Overall pleased with some key hits pre & post Corona w/o paying 2-3x's normal prices.
Anyone wishing for the return of 2016 "buyer's group" price level??
If I really thought prices were going to tank from where we are at now, I would sell a whole lot more. However, if they do not go down significantly though, I would be unable to replace what I had sold.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Seller's market, for sure.............I'm having a hard time spending my Ebay bucks......
Please accept my two cents on this. I stopped collecting cards all together in 1994. I literally started up again last week. I have no concept of pricing or if prices are good or bad right now. But they are at all time highs. I see it as a lot of people have free time and are digging out those cards and some are cashing in. I forsee a glut of graded cards coming onto the market.
Let's look at it like the stock market. I am only investing in Topps sets pre 1983. Loaded with stars, HoF players, and the rookies have already proven themselves. These are the Large Cap "Blue Chip" stocks. Proven winners, will never fall in value much if at all, almost always performs over time. I never bet on the long shot (Small Cap). Too volatile and like businesses for every Apple there are 20,000 failed businesses. And until about 1983 Topps was the main brand to collect. This made it easy to figure out. Since about 1993 there have been so many different brands and rookies that are 1/1 and are considered the holy grail for that player. Forget that, I will take the proven winner over the hot new stud.
I can say this. There is value out there, but it does take a lot of time make sure you are getting the very best card for a price you can live with. This is all just my opinion and I could be wrong, it is just my take after looking at trends. I will of course defer to the experts on the board.
Be patient and buy the dips.
ETA: I would like to second one of the posts above. It was mentioned to buy baseball in the Winter and football in the Summer. This is good advice, you avoid the hype even with established HoF and star players that are in the news or on TV for a variety of reasons.
If peak (hype and prices being high) is considered to be right before any season starts, and you are trying to buy a sport off-peak (less hype and lower prices), then buying football in the spring seems to make more sense since football starts in the summer.
I just received an email from PSA about an auction I have never heard of. I went to the site and saw that the white whale I have been trying to harpoon for years, the Clemente rookie card in PSA 8 is currently bid up to $31,000 with over 21 days remaining in the auction. In normal times that would be a fair price but this auction isn't even close to over and the card looks like a PSA 6 at best! No sharp corners or edges . . .
Late 60's and early to mid 70's non-sports
rip packs and don't buy much graded modern, but from my research and from selling said rips, to me it seems like the right time to buy is the week or two after said team gets eliminated from their league's playoffs.
there's nothing left to hype, focus shifts and subconsciously people don't want to collect losers.
not just US investors and speculators. article from across the pond:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8875127/JP-Morgan-Goldman-Sachs-Mickey-Mantle-Sports-trading-card-prices-soar-pandemic.html
Since last December I got back into collecting some stuff I wanted and trying to complete raw sets I need. Buying most cards in a nice exmt condition is pretty reasonable. And I'm working on some sets from the 40s and 50s were I am content to buy in VG-EX. These are all affordable and even in some cases cheap. So I do that.
But there are some examples of graded cards I would like to own that I simply can not justify buying at what the levels are at. Certain issues, certain players, certain grades. If they never go down and I never acquire them, I guess I am ok with that. If or when the bubble bursts I'll be looking for the deals.
Stopped buying unopened except 1971 OPC. Tempted to sell more. Down to late 70s and early 80s. Not a strong believer in current 1980s pricing longer-term. 1970s has had a more reasonable trajectory.
Pricing surge has gotten me looking at more unusual items (like a near-set of 1983 Topps acetate proofs and sports memorabilia), as well as stamps. Talk about a hurting/dead market. Yikes. Inexpensive way to revisit childhood.
Buy less, for sure. I'm taking the time to sell off a bunch of stuff I've been hoarding. I'm getting 4-5x what I paid for stuff about two years ago and I just can't imagine that these prices will hold once people go back to spending at the bar and going on vacation. I bought (10) 1991 Desert Shield Pucketts in PSA 9, I'm a player collector of his, and the cards I bought two years ago at $90 are selling for $400-450. The PSA 8s that I bought at $40 are selling for $110-140. I just don't see these prices holding after a cure for covid and people spend on everything again. If you bought anything to resell later...how do you hold on to them now? Prices are too good.
Kirby Puckett Master Set
You make some great points here and congrats on the fat margins that you are achieving. There are some who believe that the demand side of the curve that has exploded due to COVID will result in a permanent floor not too far off, if at all, from where we are today. I also know many who are convinced that there is only one direction for values - up! From my limited observations, the most enthusiastically optimistic people tend to be newer to the hobby. While I am one who takes money off the table in other investments, it’s tough for me to look at my collection as an investment. As a result I have not sold very much (not that I ever sold much to begin with). The multiples that many have seen in appreciation are undeniable and you would have to consider it a clear “win” to lock in some gains here.
The more interesting group are the market timer collectors. Made up of those who sell with full intent to buy same stuff back later at a cheaper price. I have a couple of friends who do this and have had some success.
Sure is an interesting time to be in this hobby. Just glad I’ve been in it for a little while now vs just staring out these past couple years.
John
John,
I'm not sure I will be able to buy back any of the stuff I'm selling but I'm not selling key cards, just stuff I always hoarded thinking it's undervalued. I'm a financial advisor by profession and I'm acutely aware how easily markets move. I could easily see a tough couple years any point in the next 1-5 years and maybe that would allow me to buy back stuff, even if not at 25% levels. If not, I'm still ok letting a few things go.
Kirby Puckett Master Set
i actually had a break in this past weekend. have a detached garage/man cave. broke in and luckily only took a guitar but apparently saw my truck keys and subsequently stole my truck. while this situation truly sucks, as it had my wallet in it and having to cancel all my plastic, having to get a new id and then go and reopen new accounts is going to take weeks/months under current conditions. but, i stay optimistic. these guys stepped over a $100 bill to steal a $.05. needless to say, there were a few cards sitting around worth more than my truck by themselves.
making a long story short, you don't necessarily even have to look at your collection as an investment BUT just realize that it is. insure it like it is. this ordeal has made me reevaluate a lot of things pertaining to my collection and while i consider myself a collector first and foremost, insurance wise, i was way under insured considering how quickly things have escalated.
and as a collector, updating you're collection list is a great idea. not speaking to you directly, just offering some advice that even as a collector putting pen to paper on the updated value couldn't hurt.
"
and as a collector, updating you're collection list is a great idea. not speaking to you directly, just offering some advice that even as a collector putting pen to paper on the updated value couldn't hurt."
It's time to reassess and insure more. This is good advice. No sense putting it off.
"You've gotta be a man to play this game...but you'd better have a lot of little boy in you, too"--Roy Campanella
I am buying more cards that I think have future potential. I am buying stuff that I feel will provide a return once the item is slabbed. I feel that there are plenty of opportunities under the radar now despite some of the big cards taking off.
Looking to BUY n332 1889 SF Hess cards and high grade cards from 19th century especially. "Once you have wrestled everything else in life is easy" Dan Gable