@coinkat said:
Follow the art, history and design in coins so there is some timeless component to the series that would justify interest. And several countries have such coin series in various denominations. If you are driven solely by what is undervalued, consider looking at the economy of the country and whether there is a reasonable middle class in size or has that potential. Contemplate the surviving population and what makes a series appealing. I like the Edward VII Florins because the standing Britannia is a timeless design. Further, these were spent and not saved in quantity so high grade examples are elusive. I think the Cuban ABC Peso has a great Art Moderne look with some controversy as to the surviving population. Collectors look at mintage figures and assume these are common as dirt. And that is simply not the case for MS examples. I have only provided two examples... there are other series that represent value throughout the world.
The percentage increase in the size of the middle class of any given country should be proportional to the increase in scarce coin values. Don't overlook smaller poor countries with very small middle income people. Areas such as North Africa could do extremely well in the next couple decades. Have you ever seen a Libyan 1952 issue in Unc? They may exist in quantity for all I know but Uncs are tough and Gems may be impossible.
I have always felt the best bet in all aspects of life and investing is to go against the flow. Buy when people sell and sell when they buy. I try to collect what nobody wants. Unfortunately I'm a generalist so I tend to want to collect just about everything including even coins I should be selling.
@coinkat said:
Follow the art, history and design in coins so there is some timeless component to the series that would justify interest. And several countries have such coin series in various denominations. If you are driven solely by what is undervalued, consider looking at the economy of the country and whether there is a reasonable middle class in size or has that potential. Contemplate the surviving population and what makes a series appealing. I like the Edward VII Florins because the standing Britannia is a timeless design. Further, these were spent and not saved in quantity so high grade examples are elusive. I think the Cuban ABC Peso has a great Art Moderne look with some controversy as to the surviving population. Collectors look at mintage figures and assume these are common as dirt. And that is simply not the case for MS examples. I have only provided two examples... there are other series that represent value throughout the world.
The percentage increase in the size of the middle class of any given country should be proportional to the increase in scarce coin values. Don't overlook smaller poor countries with very small middle income people. Areas such as North Africa could do extremely well in the next couple decades. Have you ever seen a Libyan 1952 issue in Unc? They may exist in quantity for all I know but Uncs are tough and Gems may be impossible.
I have always felt the best bet in all aspects of life and investing is to go against the flow. Buy when people sell and sell when they buy. I try to collect what nobody wants. Unfortunately I'm a generalist so I tend to want to collect just about everything including even coins I should be selling.
All that does not mean there is a strong market for these moderns
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
All that does not mean there is a strong market for these moderns
Yes, exactly.
I believe the market for moderns even in China, Russia, and India is very weak, very small. Prices are up hundreds fold not because the markets are popular but because the supplies are very very low. Or to say it another way the demand was so tiny before that a thousand collectors increase the demand more than a hundred fold. I believe this is coming to a country near you no matter where you live and eventually encompass virtually every single country. The exception will be anywhere that there are no scarce moderns. I doubt such a country actually exists but if it does then they will have only a few coins since WW II.
Coincidentally I thought several years ago that Malta might be one such country but then their circulating moderns went up substantially as well as a few proof sets. I never found Maltese coins especially tough but maybe I notice them more because they are so handsome.
While I probably agree with everything CladKing has said, as usual, it's interesting to look at the other side of the coin. Yes, super rare gem modern coins in tremendously undercollected series have a ton of potential. The flipside is the super rare circulated older coins in tremendously undercollected series may have just as much potential. My first thoughts go to Latin America and Medieval Europe, but the truth is that the best opportunities are probably off my radar.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
The most interesting aspect of this thread is the wide variety of coinage supposedly with favorable financial prospects.
Most coinage is too common and lacks sufficient collector appeal to noticeably appreciate substantially versus the competing alternatives, unless the entire market moves with it.
A lower minority of coinage is too scarce to be widely collected and also lacks sufficiently widespread appeal to appreciate meaningfully.
There is absolutely no demonstrated cause and effect between increasing affluence in the general population and coin collecting or meaningfully higher prices, in most countries. The "markets" in most countries and series are so minimal it is a rounding error from effective random buying.
There is absolutely no demonstrated cause and effect between increasing affluence in the general population and coin collecting or meaningfully higher prices, in most countries. The "markets" in most countries and series are so minimal it is a rounding error from effective random buying.
Many people attribute growth in Chinese wealth to growth in their coin prices. Is it rather growth in nationalism? Or something else?
I agree that we should not necessarily assume a cause and effect relationship. If there was one, we'd all be pointing at African nations.
There is absolutely no demonstrated cause and effect between increasing affluence in the general population and coin collecting or meaningfully higher prices, in most countries. The "markets" in most countries and series are so minimal it is a rounding error from effective random buying.
Many people attribute growth in Chinese wealth to growth in their coin prices. Is it rather growth in nationalism? Or something else?
I agree that we should not necessarily assume a cause and effect relationship. If there was one, we'd all be pointing at African nations.
Yes, correlation is not causation. Yet this is one of the most widely believed financial myths in coin collecting. Here are a few facts:
Outside of existing developed coin markets (which at least to some extent does include China), the (overwhelming) majority of the population almost certainly doesn't even know coin collecting exists.
Look at the increasing economic affluence in the US in the female and African American demographic. It's increased noticeably the last few decades yet any increase in the collector base is minimal financially (women) to virtually non-existent (African Americans). If anyone claims otherwise, I'd like to see evidence where it is financially meaningful, even in the context of collecting. The point being, no amount of financial affluence is going to turn a non-collector into a collector.
In most countries, there is little available available to buy locally because the majority of the better coinage left the country for the US or Europe long ago. Frequently, there is already a shortage of the coins most collectors want to by most for the current (mostly foreign) collector base, much less a far larger one. Because of this supply and quality limitation, there will never be any meaningful financial scale within a timeframe which matter to hardly anyone reading this thread, if ever.
There is also no "efficient" local market to sell back into and contrary to what any US collector may believe, only a die hard collector finds collecting sufficiently interesting to import their collection when buying and then export the coins later to sell it. It's easy enough for US based collectors to overlook this because we do not have this problem.
There is absolutely no demonstrated cause and effect between increasing affluence in the general population and coin collecting or meaningfully higher prices, in most countries. The "markets" in most countries and series are so minimal it is a rounding error from effective random buying.
Many people attribute growth in Chinese wealth to growth in their coin prices. Is it rather growth in nationalism? Or something else?
I agree that we should not necessarily assume a cause and effect relationship. If there was one, we'd all be pointing at African nations.
Yes, correlation is not causation. Yet this is one of the most widely believed financial myths in coin collecting. Here are a few facts:
Outside of existing developed coin markets (which at least to some extent does include China), the (overwhelming) majority of the population almost certainly doesn't even know coin collecting exists.
Look at the increasing economic affluence in the US in the female and African American demographic. It's increased noticeably the last few decades yet any increase in the collector base is minimal financially (women) to virtually non-existent (African Americans). If anyone claims otherwise, I'd like to see evidence where it is financially meaningful, even in the context of collecting. The point being, no amount of financial affluence is going to turn a non-collector into a collector.
In most countries, there is little available available to buy locally because the majority of the better coinage left the country for the US or Europe long ago. Frequently, there is already a shortage of the coins most collectors want to by most for the current (mostly foreign) collector base, much less a far larger one. Because of this supply and quality limitation, there will never be any meaningful financial scale within a timeframe which matter to hardly anyone reading this thread, if ever.
There is also no "efficient" local market to sell back into and contrary to what any US collector may believe, only a die hard collector finds collecting sufficiently interesting to import their collection when buying and then export the coins later to sell it. It's easy enough for US based collectors to overlook this because we do not have this problem.
Yet over time great coins continue to rise in value
Where do you get your ‘facts’ ?
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
There is absolutely no demonstrated cause and effect between increasing affluence in the general population and coin collecting or meaningfully higher prices, in most countries. The "markets" in most countries and series are so minimal it is a rounding error from effective random buying.
Many people attribute growth in Chinese wealth to growth in their coin prices. Is it rather growth in nationalism? Or something else?
I agree that we should not necessarily assume a cause and effect relationship. If there was one, we'd all be pointing at African nations.
Yes, correlation is not causation. Yet this is one of the most widely believed financial myths in coin collecting. Here are a few facts:
Outside of existing developed coin markets (which at least to some extent does include China), the (overwhelming) majority of the population almost certainly doesn't even know coin collecting exists.
Look at the increasing economic affluence in the US in the female and African American demographic. It's increased noticeably the last few decades yet any increase in the collector base is minimal financially (women) to virtually non-existent (African Americans). If anyone claims otherwise, I'd like to see evidence where it is financially meaningful, even in the context of collecting. The point being, no amount of financial affluence is going to turn a non-collector into a collector.
In most countries, there is little available available to buy locally because the majority of the better coinage left the country for the US or Europe long ago. Frequently, there is already a shortage of the coins most collectors want to by most for the current (mostly foreign) collector base, much less a far larger one. Because of this supply and quality limitation, there will never be any meaningful financial scale within a timeframe which matter to hardly anyone reading this thread, if ever.
There is also no "efficient" local market to sell back into and contrary to what any US collector may believe, only a die hard collector finds collecting sufficiently interesting to import their collection when buying and then export the coins later to sell it. It's easy enough for US based collectors to overlook this because we do not have this problem.
Yet over time great coins continue to rise in value
Where do you get your ‘facts’ ?
Your post did not contradict mine as I never said coins would not appreciate at all. What is your specific question?
@bidask said:
Yet over time great coins continue to rise in value
Where do you get your ‘facts’ ?
Not all coins are rising in value. I'd like to see an estimate of the total market value of coins over time. I would hypothethize that it is rising slower than GDP.
His point is that there are factors that affect coin prices other than just the disposable income of a general population.
I think it could be interesting to think of hobby health in terms of network theory ( maybe watch this???? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM1KaaTez0A. ) You could argue that the hobby has a better chance of future health in the US where it already has a collector base and commercial footprint. It's easier to get plugged into the hobby when you have those things. The corollary of that is that there is more resistance to growth in demographics or regions where there isn't already a collecting footprint. It does not necessarily follow that areas that are under collected have a better chance of appreciating in value just by virtue of the fact they are under collected. The fact that it's under collected could be its primary disadvantage.
His point is that there are factors that affect coin prices other than just the disposable income of a general population.
>
This is exactly my point. The belief that affluence is a cause is a complete myth. There is correlation but no causation except within the existing collector population, as no amount of money is enough to turn a non-collector into a collector. I like my collection as much as anyone else on this forum but this doesn't lead me to believe that the non-collecting public can hardly wait to have more money to buy coins. (Yes, I am somewhat exaggerating.)
I think it could be interesting to think of hobby health in terms of network theory ( maybe watch this???? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM1KaaTez0A. ) You could argue that the hobby has a better chance of future health in the US where it already has a collector base and commercial footprint. It's easier to get plugged into the hobby when you have those things. The corollary of that is that there is more resistance to growth in demographics or regions where there isn't already a collecting footprint. It does not necessarily follow that areas that are under collected have a better chance of appreciating in value just by virtue of the fact they are under collected. The fact that it's under collected could be its primary disadvantage.
>
This is also exactly my position.
A component of my claim (made in my prior post) is the insurmountable obstacle from the lack of an adequate supply which no amount of money can overcome and which I never see anyone address in an implied claim of future growth.
What exactly are these future prospective collectors supposed to buy since the coins most collectors want the most were never saved in any number and those that do exist are disproportionately "dreck"? Members of this forum disproportionately do not want this coinage, yet it's believable that someone else will and pay good money for it? How credible is that?
The only reason I can see that anyone can believe the future growth story in countries with limited or no collecting history is because they make abstract assumptions which do not reflect reality. I encountered this with collectors in South Africa all the time who believed the same theme.
@WCC said:
This is exactly my point. The belief that affluence is a cause is a complete myth. There is correlation but no causation except within the existing collector population, as no amount of money is enough to turn a non-collector into a collector.
An example that demonstrates this point is modern Mexican coinage. There has been a substantial growth of the Mexican and Mexican descended population in the US in the last 50 years, yet the demand for (and value of) 20th century Mexican coinage has barely changed since the 1960s.
The most popular areas of collecting are probably Britain, German States, Russia, and China. Other popular areas include France, Japan, Ancient Greece, Ancient Rome, Italy, Austria, Switzerland, Korea, etc. Any Latin American issues would probably be another tier down, as although there are highly valued pieces, they come up relatively infrequently and the collector base at the high end is sparse. German Empire could be on a similar tier for the same reason. Most 20th-century issues (besides China) will probably be farther down. This of course all depends on what is meant by “popularity.” If you count modern bullion issues the answers could be completely different, or if you are focusing on the lower end vs. the higher end of the market, or on the average overall value of coins sold, or purely on the number of collectors and not on the strength of the market or the frequency of sales, etc. There are also particular series and coins that are popular within countries that overall might not be - in fact, I think this question would be better answered in particular series or coins than entire countries, because there will always be popular and unpopular issues within countries, and owning a coin from Britain or China won’t necessarily make it easy to sell. But, those popular coins and series are too numerous and specific to list, and they are not static in their popularity. My philosophy has never been to focus on types or series, but to just trust my taste and to buy what I like and what sticks out to me (which in a sense is avoiding what is popular, if “popular” is to be interpreted as “typical” or “established”). When it comes time to resell, those pieces will hopefully stick out to others as well. The ultimate popularity lies in the individual coin.
I have met individuals that BECAUSE of their wealth jumped into the coin hobby and spent millions first time buying .
Lets get back to the OP's question:
I find China ,and other asian countries coinage in demand as well as Russia, US, Europe, Mexican ,Canadian , Australian , and South American coins to be quite in demand. Thats alot of coinage to choose and compete for. It doesn't matter whether the demand is coming from a countries own collector base or from outside demand....the fact is demand is there enough that there is competition in auctions. and growth in auction results over the long term for many coins is pretty clear.
Yes some series are more in demand than others .....always has been and will continue to be.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
@bidask said:
I have met individuals that BECAUSE of their wealth jumped into the coin hobby and spent millions first time buying .
If they are from a developed country, it's a lot more likely.
Lets get back to the OP's question:
I find China ,and other asian countries coinage in demand as well as Russia, US, Europe, Mexican ,Canadian , Australian , and South American coins to be quite in demand. Thats alot of coinage to choose and compete for. It doesn't matter whether the demand is coming from a countries own collector base or from outside demand....the fact is demand is there enough that there is competition in auctions. and growth in auction results over the long term for many coins is pretty clear.
Yes some series are more in demand than others .....always has been and will continue to be.
I was singling you out. Mostly, it depends upon how much "growth" someone expects.
The point I was making is that if anyone looks at how coins are actually priced under the TPG economic model which is what drives current higher prices, there is no realistic prospect for the coins from countries with limited to no history of collecting to even come close to replicating prior US price performance.
@Rexford said:
This of course all depends on what is meant by “popularity.”
Most collectors seem to conflate "popular" with an actual preference. Popular measured by the size of the collector base usually doesn't mean collectors actually prefer it over less widely collected series. It usually means a combination of supply and budget limitations.
Interesting thread. In my experience I think German States, Belgium, Poland, Morocco, Great Britain, Russia, Japan, Islamic coins have very good potential to make profit. I have only been collecting for 21 years. The only way to get a feel for what's hot and what's not is to see many many coins at coin shows and look at many many auctions on Ebay. I think eye appeal helps value. I also see a trend in larger crown size coins becoming more popular. In world coin collecting I collect topical/themed collections so you get a feel of what's more rare than others. There are so many world countries that it would be hard to say which are most popular with all coin collectors.
I disagree with the assertion that increasing affluence in a given country does not affect demand for that country’s coinage. In the case of countries like Russia that already had a collector base, I think it has had a large effect. Russia even has collectible coin vending machines, something I have never seen in any other country. It helps that they have a broad base of educated people with some disposable income. However, I agree that if a country never had a collector base to begin with, newfound wealth is not going to create one.
We should also consider that the new global middle and upper class could be contributing to demand for popular world coins in general, like European thalers and crowns, as well as ancients. The internet has created a global market for this material that once was nonexistent.
@KSorbo said:
However, I agree that if a country never had a collector base to begin with, newfound wealth is not going to create one.
This is my primary point. I cannot speak specifically to Russia and it's evident it has a collecting culture of some sort. So my claims would not apply to an equal extent, just as it wouldn't to the US.
One reason I have also made this claim is because I repeatedly read that the most affluent non-collectors are supposedly interested in buying the most expensive coins when it is obvious this isn't true. It's effectively as probable as being struck by lightning or winning the lottery.
We should also consider that the new global middle and upper class could be contributing to demand for popular world coins in general, like European thalers and crowns, as well as ancients. The internet has created a global market for this material that once was nonexistent.
I agree this happens but almost exclusively from the existing collector population.
@KSorbo said:
However, I agree that if a country never had a collector base to begin with, newfound wealth is not going to create one.
This is my primary point. I cannot speak specifically to Russia and it's evident it has a collecting culture of some sort. So my claims would not apply to an equal extent, just as it wouldn't to the US.
One reason I have also made this claim is because I repeatedly read that the most affluent non-collectors are supposedly interested in buying the most expensive coins when it is obvious this isn't true. It's effectively as probable as being struck by lightning or winning the lottery.
We should also consider that the new global middle and upper class could be contributing to demand for popular world coins in general, like European thalers and crowns, as well as ancients. The internet has created a global market for this material that once was nonexistent.
I agree this happens but almost exclusively from the existing collector population.
Yes, I’m envisioning a Russian or Chinese collector going through the same progression I did. I started with low cost, common coins from my own country (USA) and then began buying more expensive US coins when I had more income. Then I branched into nicer world coins like thalers, crowns etc. from major countries like Russia, Germany, U.K., etc. I can’t imagine a middle class Russian or Chinese person approaching it much differently. I also can’t imagine a newly affluent Russian oligarch suddenly buying expensive coins. Priorities would more likely be expensive booze and women.
@MrEureka said:
The flipside is the super rare circulated older coins in tremendously undercollected series may have just as much potential. My first thoughts go to Latin America and Medieval Europe, but the truth is that the best opportunities are probably off my radar.
There is a lot of potential in a large number of world coins. Most series simply are not widely collected even if they are common. The coins get bounced around from accumulator to hoarder to poundage and often end up getting lost or melted for their metallic content. Coins are perceived to be common because there are a million "circulating" among collectors in the US. But when you try to actually locate one or find a collection they are nowhere to be seen. In their home countries they are far more likely to be melted.
I'm thinking of very common coins like the Honduran 20 centavo. Even in aggregate there were fewer than 8 million minted and the coins have .072 OZ of silver. Most of them were heavily circulated very long ago. Even as a type coin it might not be so easy to find if a couple million people wanted one. Nice VF's to AU's would be elusive except nobody collects them still.
There are just so very many world coins with tremendous potential.
@MrEureka said:
The flipside is the super rare circulated older coins in tremendously undercollected series may have just as much potential. My first thoughts go to Latin America and Medieval Europe, but the truth is that the best opportunities are probably off my radar.
There is a lot of potential in a large number of world coins. Most series simply are not widely collected even if they are common. The coins get bounced around from accumulator to hoarder to poundage and often end up getting lost or melted for their metallic content. Coins are perceived to be common because there are a million "circulating" among collectors in the US. But when you try to actually locate one or find a collection they are nowhere to be seen. In their home countries they are far more likely to be melted.
I'm thinking of very common coins like the Honduran 20 centavo. Even in aggregate there were fewer than 8 million minted and the coins have .072 OZ of silver. Most of them were heavily circulated very long ago. Even as a type coin it might not be so easy to find if a couple million people wanted one. Nice VF's to AU's would be elusive except nobody collects them still.
Except why would a couple of million people ever want one? Why would a thousand people all of the sudden want one? And considering that you are talking about Honduras, the original banana republic, and a relatively poor country where a majority of the people just think about how to get by day-to-day, why would even a hundred people ever want one?
There may be potential in theory, but I just don't see it in practice.
@MrEureka said:
The flipside is the super rare circulated older coins in tremendously undercollected series may have just as much potential. My first thoughts go to Latin America and Medieval Europe, but the truth is that the best opportunities are probably off my radar.
There is a lot of potential in a large number of world coins. Most series simply are not widely collected even if they are common. The coins get bounced around from accumulator to hoarder to poundage and often end up getting lost or melted for their metallic content. Coins are perceived to be common because there are a million "circulating" among collectors in the US. But when you try to actually locate one or find a collection they are nowhere to be seen. In their home countries they are far more likely to be melted.
I'm thinking of very common coins like the Honduran 20 centavo. Even in aggregate there were fewer than 8 million minted and the coins have .072 OZ of silver. Most of them were heavily circulated very long ago. Even as a type coin it might not be so easy to find if a couple million people wanted one. Nice VF's to AU's would be elusive except nobody collects them still.
Except why would a couple of million people ever want one? Why would a thousand people all of the sudden want one? And considering that you are talking about Honduras, the original banana republic, and a relatively poor country where a majority of the people just think about how to get by day-to-day, why would even a hundred people ever want one?
There may be potential in theory, but I just don't see it in practice.
Type collecting is very popular and the Honduras is an interesting country. These coins are very attractive.
I keep thinking there are 7,000,000,000 people so if even the tiniest percentage see these coins and can buy one with a few clicks and a few dollars the potential is boundless. A world silver type collection is quite affordable as are many other collections that contain this coin.
There are lots of younger people making all sorts of collections. Who knows what they'll be needing.
@MrEureka said:
The flipside is the super rare circulated older coins in tremendously undercollected series may have just as much potential. My first thoughts go to Latin America and Medieval Europe, but the truth is that the best opportunities are probably off my radar.
There is a lot of potential in a large number of world coins. Most series simply are not widely collected even if they are common. The coins get bounced around from accumulator to hoarder to poundage and often end up getting lost or melted for their metallic content. Coins are perceived to be common because there are a million "circulating" among collectors in the US. But when you try to actually locate one or find a collection they are nowhere to be seen. In their home countries they are far more likely to be melted.
I'm thinking of very common coins like the Honduran 20 centavo. Even in aggregate there were fewer than 8 million minted and the coins have .072 OZ of silver. Most of them were heavily circulated very long ago. Even as a type coin it might not be so easy to find if a couple million people wanted one. Nice VF's to AU's would be elusive except nobody collects them still.
Except why would a couple of million people ever want one? Why would a thousand people all of the sudden want one? And considering that you are talking about Honduras, the original banana republic, and a relatively poor country where a majority of the people just think about how to get by day-to-day, why would even a hundred people ever want one?
There may be potential in theory, but I just don't see it in practice.
Type collecting is very popular and the Honduras is an interesting country. These coins are very attractive.
All very true, but none have bearing on the topic.
I keep thinking there are 7,000,000,000 people so if even the tiniest percentage see these coins and can buy one with a few clicks and a few dollars the potential is boundless. A world silver type collection is quite affordable as are many other collections that contain this coin.
There are lots of younger people making all sorts of collections. Who knows what they'll be needing.
Coin dealers have been using differing versions of this theory for decades. They are good marketing tactics, but reality had proven much different.
The increasing population of Mexican (or Mexican-American) people who now have the money and love of their heritage to start collecting is the one I am most familiar with and which has never panned out.
The only Mexicans new to numismatics that I see are young dealers who would rather be self-employed in a country were employees make very little salary and successful, rich men who need places to park (aka hide) their money outside of banks.
I may be cynical, but I've heard all the theories and none of them ever has legs. Oh yes, they sound plausible, but that's about it.
And history shows us that the absolute number of coin collectors is decreasing not increasing.
The only Mexicans new to numismatics that I see are young dealers who would rather be self-employed in a country were employees make very little salary and old, successful, rich men who need places to park (aka hide) their money outside of banks.
I may be cynical, but I've heard all the theories and none of them ever has legs. Oh yes, they sound plausible, but that's about it.
And history shows us that the absolute number of coin collectors is decreasing not increasing.
Your position is not cynicism. The reason why the theories you have heard "don't have legs" is because it's abstract and has little if anything to do with the motivation anyone has to become a collector or pay the prices someone else thinks some coin should be worth.
@pruebas said:
And history shows us that the absolute number of coin collectors is decreasing not increasing.
I've tried to come up with poor estimates of the collector population over time, and it's tough. I haven't seen anything that tells me decisively that it is decreasing. I am fairly confident that if it is growing, it is growing more slowly than the population and GDP. The fraction of the population that is collecting coins is definitely going down.
I set my collecting goals and collecting budget under the assumption that collecting will get less popular over time. I think a lot of bullishness you hear out there is coming from dealers themselves, or people that collect specific things that are currently en vogue.
@pruebas said:
And history shows us that the absolute number of coin collectors is decreasing not increasing.
I've tried to come up with poor estimates of the collector population over time, and it's tough. I haven't seen anything that tells me decisively that it is decreasing. I am fairly confident that if it is growing, it is growing more slowly than the population and GDP. The fraction of the population that is collecting coins is definitely going down.
I set my collecting goals and collecting budget under the assumption that collecting will get less popular over time. I think a lot of bullishness you hear out there is coming from dealers themselves, or people that collect specific things that are currently en vogue.
It's a complicated answer. The numismatic community frames the topic in the context of the "coin market" but there isn't a uniform market, it's very fragmented. It can grow or shrink in the aggregate but this will impact each collector differently financially depending what they collect.
The bullishness you are referring to substantially comes from those who are promoting the financial side (auction firms, TPG, coin dealers, and to some extent the numismatic press) and the collectors who agree with them.
I also believe it is decreasing as a recreational activity in the developed world where most of the collector base is currently located but don't know of any method to prove it either way.
@KSorbo said:
However, I agree that if a country never had a collector base to begin with, newfound wealth is not going to create one.
This is my primary point. I cannot speak specifically to Russia and it's evident it has a collecting culture of some sort. So my claims would not apply to an equal extent, just as it wouldn't to the US.
One reason I have also made this claim is because I repeatedly read that the most affluent non-collectors are supposedly interested in buying the most expensive coins when it is obvious this isn't true. It's effectively as probable as being struck by lightning or winning the lottery.
We should also consider that the new global middle and upper class could be contributing to demand for popular world coins in general, like European thalers and crowns, as well as ancients. The internet has created a global market for this material that once was nonexistent.
I agree this happens but almost exclusively from the existing collector population.
Yes, I’m envisioning a Russian or Chinese collector going through the same progression I did. I started with low cost, common coins from my own country (USA) and then began buying more expensive US coins when I had more income. Then I branched into nicer world coins like thalers, crowns etc. from major countries like Russia, Germany, U.K., etc. I can’t imagine a middle class Russian or Chinese person approaching it much differently. I also can’t imagine a newly affluent Russian oligarch suddenly buying expensive coins. Priorities would more likely be expensive booze and women.
I figured that Hercules would be collecting Ancients
I don't collect for profit, so the outcome doesn't make that much difference to me. If the buyer likes what they collect enough and collects within their "comfort zone", the financial outcome shouldn't make any difference to them either.
If the buyer doesn't like what they collect enough to potentially lose a noticeable proportion of their outlay, they should collect at a lower financial level or not collect at all. I avoid buying coins where It would bother me enough to lose money. That's one reason I don't buy the coins most collectors do and don't collect some of the coins I did in the past.
Coin dealers have been using differing versions of this theory for decades. They are good marketing tactics, but reality had proven much different.
The increasing population of Mexican (or Mexican-American) people who now have the money and love of their heritage to start collecting is the one I am most familiar with and which has never panned out.
The only Mexicans new to numismatics that I see are young dealers who would rather be self-employed in a country were employees make very little salary and successful, rich men who need places to park (aka hide) their money outside of banks.
I may be cynical, but I've heard all the theories and none of them ever has legs. Oh yes, they sound plausible, but that's about it.
And history shows us that the absolute number of coin collectors is decreasing not increasing.
I think the number of "coin collectors" depends on how you define the term. People who believe the numbers are decreasing are really talking about the number of sophisticated and knowledgeable collectors buying in specific areas of the market. These collectors are almost invariably spending significant amounts of money and most are older Americans. These numbers are decreasing because so many baby boomers are retiring and there are a lot fewer such collectors in the younger generations.
"New" collectors are far less visible. They don't spend a lot of money and many don't have any thousand dollar coins. They are collecting different coins and they are doing it in different ways and in different countries. These collectors are younger and maturing rapidly. They will own almost all the coins in only one more generation.
There are a lot of them.
In the '60's there were 10,000,000 collectors today there are 20,000,000 in the US alone. There are countless millions all over the world today though some might never have enough trading ability or income to have much effect on coins. There are probably twenty times as many collectors today as twenty years ago and now the market has been transformed by the internet. A kid in Tanis Tuva doesn't need to find a coin shop to buy coins.
Not every coin will benefit from all this increased interest but it is so massive that most will.
As far as modern Mexico it has always been an enigma to me. There is certainly some interest among Mexican immigrants to the US but there are a lot of these coins that have been set aside. Because of the high savings rate I personally have set aside only better dates and a few Gems. Most of the post-1958 coinage can be located though Gem material can be elusive.
I like almost all world moderns but I'm sure some of these will not have much interest for generations to come largely because many of them are exceedingly common. Some of the Yugoslavian issues simply exist by the millions. There are hundreds of issues that are equally common but there are others that are highly desirable and scarce like much of the Swiss coinage. People have taken moderns for granted so we ended up with highly lopsided availability. Coins didn't save themselves and some were simply ignored for the crime of containing no silver at all.
@cladking said:
In the '60's there were 10,000,000 collectors today there are 20,000,000 in the US alone.
That seems to be a generous estimate. US population is 330 million, which would mean 1 out of every 16 people is a coin collector and out of 1 million people, 62,500 would be collectors.
However... there is (or, at least, was) an annual coin show where I live. There are about 1 million people who are within an hour and a half drive of the show. Year after year, the show attendance is about 500.
That seems to be a generous estimate. US population is 330 million, which would mean 1 out of every 16 people is a coin collector and out of 1 million people, 62,500 would be collectors.
However... there is (or, at least, was) an annual coin show where I live. There are about 1 million people who are within an hour and a half drive of the show. Year after year, the show attendance is about 500.
Almost none of these people are ever going to be spending any meaningful amounts by paying a "noticeable" premium over FV.
The number from your post attending the local coin show is a more accurate indication of those who will influence the future price level.
@WCC said:
The number from your post attending the local coin show is a more accurate indication of those who will influence the future price level.
Agreed. And not only that, a fair number of those who do go to the show are casual collectors who will never really have much of an influence on price levels of top(ish) pop coins, either currently or in the future.
Coin dealers have been using differing versions of this theory for decades. They are good marketing tactics, but reality had proven much different.
The increasing population of Mexican (or Mexican-American) people who now have the money and love of their heritage to start collecting is the one I am most familiar with and which has never panned out.
The only Mexicans new to numismatics that I see are young dealers who would rather be self-employed in a country were employees make very little salary and successful, rich men who need places to park (aka hide) their money outside of banks.
I may be cynical, but I've heard all the theories and none of them ever has legs. Oh yes, they sound plausible, but that's about it.
And history shows us that the absolute number of coin collectors is decreasing not increasing.
I think the number of "coin collectors" depends on how you define the term. People who believe the numbers are decreasing are really talking about the number of sophisticated and knowledgeable collectors buying in specific areas of the market. These collectors are almost invariably spending significant amounts of money and most are older Americans. These numbers are decreasing because so many baby boomers are retiring and there are a lot fewer such collectors in the younger generations.
"New" collectors are far less visible. They don't spend a lot of money and many don't have any thousand dollar coins. They are collecting different coins and they are doing it in different ways and in different countries. These collectors are younger and maturing rapidly. They will own almost all the coins in only one more generation.
There are a lot of them.
In the '60's there were 10,000,000 collectors today there are 20,000,000 in the US alone. There are countless millions all over the world today though some might never have enough trading ability or income to have much effect on coins. There are probably twenty times as many collectors today as twenty years ago and now the market has been transformed by the internet. A kid in Tanis Tuva doesn't need to find a coin shop to buy coins.
Not every coin will benefit from all this increased interest but it is so massive that most will.
As far as modern Mexico it has always been an enigma to me. There is certainly some interest among Mexican immigrants to the US but there are a lot of these coins that have been set aside. Because of the high savings rate I personally have set aside only better dates and a few Gems. Most of the post-1958 coinage can be located though Gem material can be elusive.
I like almost all world moderns but I'm sure some of these will not have much interest for generations to come largely because many of them are exceedingly common. Some of the Yugoslavian issues simply exist by the millions. There are hundreds of issues that are equally common but there are others that are highly desirable and scarce like much of the Swiss coinage. People have taken moderns for granted so we ended up with highly lopsided availability. Coins didn't save themselves and some were simply ignored for the crime of containing no silver at all.
@cladking said:
In the '60's there were 10,000,000 collectors today there are 20,000,000 in the US alone.
That seems to be a generous estimate. US population is 330 million, which would mean 1 out of every 16 people is a coin collector and out of 1 million people, 62,500 would be collectors.
However... there is (or, at least, was) an annual coin show where I live. There are about 1 million people who are within an hour and a half drive of the show. Year after year, the show attendance is about 500.
The number of coin collectors in the US eroded from 1965 to 1999. This wasn't easy to see because the number of sophisticated collectors only decreased marginally and their aggregate demand increased substantially. But as the hobby was busily not attracting new collectors for two generations there were no youngsters to fill the shoes or buy the coins of the retiring baby boomers and prices have been mostly stagnant for more than a decade.
However with the introduction of the states coins many millions of new collectors joined the ranks. Their buying power is still somewhat weak but this is the way collectors go. They start small and then they branch out as they increase the sizes of their collections. This process often takes decades for each individual. Many are just approaching the age at which they have good solid incomes but many have families and other responsibilities which will limit the growth of their collections for a few more years. It's the aggregate growth in the value of collections which is (and is correlated) to total demand. This growth is still not apparent in many coins because so few younger collectors are buying '16-D dimes in AU. But they are putting together sets of chBU and gemmy Ike dollars fast enough to cause increasing prices. Pristine Ikes are now wholesaling between $3.50 and $16.
The increased number of coin collectors is mot visible in most coins yet. A 50% increase in the number of collectors for British India Rupees has certainly stabilized and firmed this market. But a 50% increase is only the start and there will be far more as the years go by.
Consider that there were about 20,000 collectors of Rupees in the past and a 50% increase translates to about 10,000 new collectors. 10,000 is a significant increase but unlike in the past these new collectors are mostly in India. More importantly there are probably 20,000 new collectors for the Republic of India nickel and cu/ ni Rupees. Again these collectors are mostly in India. Where there had been fewer than 1000 collectors of modern India world wide there are now 20,000. This is a twenty fold increase!!!! This is why moderns are soaring and it's only begun. These collections will grow and branch out as well.
The next twenty years will be remarkably strong for the hobby and the coin market. Collectors will do extremely well financially and have a lot of fun while just as always investors will find a way to lose money then interest.
@amwldcoin said:
Hmmmm, Are you counting people who toss their change in a jar at the end of the day a collector? If so then I could agree with your numbers.
I define a "collector" as anyone who has noticed a difference between two coins and has already sought to find a coin with more differences. So long as their collections are growing in value (no matter how small) I call them "coin collectors". The sale of coin folders, especially continuing sales, is closely correlated to the number of real collectors out there. Now days there are other means to collect so these have to be watched as well.
@neildrobertson said:
Spanish Colonial stuff has pretty broad appeal. I can see someone in North America, South America, or Europe having having multiple reasons to take an interest in it.
I can potentially see some interest but not the strongest vs some of the countries mentioned here.
Do these coins show up with strong provenance in collections outside the US?
I missed your post earlier.
I am mostly familiar with Spanish auctions outside the US and I am not aware of any "significant" Spanish colonial collection sold elsewhere since I started collecting this coinage somewhat over 15 years ago. I do have catalogues from the Swiss Bank Corporation (now Sincona) dated earlier.
It also depends upon what you mean by "strong provenance". I'd consider Sellschopp or Patterson (for what I collect) to meet this definition and I have seen a few of these coins but very few, sold in the US or elsewhere.
@neildrobertson said:
Spanish Colonial stuff has pretty broad appeal. I can see someone in North America, South America, or Europe having having multiple reasons to take an interest in it.
I can potentially see some interest but not the strongest vs some of the countries mentioned here.
Do these coins show up with strong provenance in collections outside the US?
I missed your post earlier.
I am mostly familiar with Spanish auctions outside the US and I am not aware of any "significant" Spanish colonial collection sold elsewhere since I started collecting this coinage somewhat over 15 years ago. I do have catalogues from the Swiss Bank Corporation (now Sincona) dated earlier.
It also depends upon what you mean by "strong provenance". I'd consider Sellschopp or Patterson (for what I collect) to meet this definition and I have seen a few of these coins but very few, sold in the US or elsewhere.
@neildrobertson said:
Spanish Colonial stuff has pretty broad appeal. I can see someone in North America, South America, or Europe having having multiple reasons to take an interest in it.
I can potentially see some interest but not the strongest vs some of the countries mentioned here.
Do these coins show up with strong provenance in collections outside the US?
I missed your post earlier.
I am mostly familiar with Spanish auctions outside the US and I am not aware of any "significant" Spanish colonial collection sold elsewhere since I started collecting this coinage somewhat over 15 years ago. I do have catalogues from the Swiss Bank Corporation (now Sincona) dated earlier.
It also depends upon what you mean by "strong provenance". I'd consider Sellschopp or Patterson (for what I collect) to meet this definition and I have seen a few of these coins but very few, sold in the US or elsewhere.
Caballero
Rudman
Clyde Hubbard Mexican collection
.....if I only new I would have bought a lot more !
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
@neildrobertson said:
Spanish Colonial stuff has pretty broad appeal. I can see someone in North America, South America, or Europe having having multiple reasons to take an interest in it.
I can potentially see some interest but not the strongest vs some of the countries mentioned here.
Do these coins show up with strong provenance in collections outside the US?
I missed your post earlier.
I am mostly familiar with Spanish auctions outside the US and I am not aware of any "significant" Spanish colonial collection sold elsewhere since I started collecting this coinage somewhat over 15 years ago. I do have catalogues from the Swiss Bank Corporation (now Sincona) dated earlier.
It also depends upon what you mean by "strong provenance". I'd consider Sellschopp or Patterson (for what I collect) to meet this definition and I have seen a few of these coins but very few, sold in the US or elsewhere.
Caballero
Rudman
I wasn't clear in my first paragraph. I was describing non-US auctions excluding Spain.
I don't know where Rudman lives (or lived) but presume it's the US because his NGC registry includes or included a substantial US collection. His collection was also sold by Heritage.
Caballero was sold by Aureo & Calico and fits the context of my prior comments.
Comments
The percentage increase in the size of the middle class of any given country should be proportional to the increase in scarce coin values. Don't overlook smaller poor countries with very small middle income people. Areas such as North Africa could do extremely well in the next couple decades. Have you ever seen a Libyan 1952 issue in Unc? They may exist in quantity for all I know but Uncs are tough and Gems may be impossible.
I have always felt the best bet in all aspects of life and investing is to go against the flow. Buy when people sell and sell when they buy. I try to collect what nobody wants. Unfortunately I'm a generalist so I tend to want to collect just about everything including even coins I should be selling.
All that does not mean there is a strong market for these moderns
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Yes, exactly.
I believe the market for moderns even in China, Russia, and India is very weak, very small. Prices are up hundreds fold not because the markets are popular but because the supplies are very very low. Or to say it another way the demand was so tiny before that a thousand collectors increase the demand more than a hundred fold. I believe this is coming to a country near you no matter where you live and eventually encompass virtually every single country. The exception will be anywhere that there are no scarce moderns. I doubt such a country actually exists but if it does then they will have only a few coins since WW II.
Coincidentally I thought several years ago that Malta might be one such country but then their circulating moderns went up substantially as well as a few proof sets. I never found Maltese coins especially tough but maybe I notice them more because they are so handsome.
They also tend to be well made and well preserved which is typically indicative of being common.
Gem British trade dollars look strong in upcoming Heritage and Stacks Bowers auctions.
At heritage a 1929 b gem PCGS 65 already bid at $3700
Wowee
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
While I probably agree with everything CladKing has said, as usual, it's interesting to look at the other side of the coin. Yes, super rare gem modern coins in tremendously undercollected series have a ton of potential. The flipside is the super rare circulated older coins in tremendously undercollected series may have just as much potential. My first thoughts go to Latin America and Medieval Europe, but the truth is that the best opportunities are probably off my radar.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
The most interesting aspect of this thread is the wide variety of coinage supposedly with favorable financial prospects.
Most coinage is too common and lacks sufficient collector appeal to noticeably appreciate substantially versus the competing alternatives, unless the entire market moves with it.
A lower minority of coinage is too scarce to be widely collected and also lacks sufficiently widespread appeal to appreciate meaningfully.
There is absolutely no demonstrated cause and effect between increasing affluence in the general population and coin collecting or meaningfully higher prices, in most countries. The "markets" in most countries and series are so minimal it is a rounding error from effective random buying.
Many people attribute growth in Chinese wealth to growth in their coin prices. Is it rather growth in nationalism? Or something else?
I agree that we should not necessarily assume a cause and effect relationship. If there was one, we'd all be pointing at African nations.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
Yes, correlation is not causation. Yet this is one of the most widely believed financial myths in coin collecting. Here are a few facts:
Outside of existing developed coin markets (which at least to some extent does include China), the (overwhelming) majority of the population almost certainly doesn't even know coin collecting exists.
Look at the increasing economic affluence in the US in the female and African American demographic. It's increased noticeably the last few decades yet any increase in the collector base is minimal financially (women) to virtually non-existent (African Americans). If anyone claims otherwise, I'd like to see evidence where it is financially meaningful, even in the context of collecting. The point being, no amount of financial affluence is going to turn a non-collector into a collector.
In most countries, there is little available available to buy locally because the majority of the better coinage left the country for the US or Europe long ago. Frequently, there is already a shortage of the coins most collectors want to by most for the current (mostly foreign) collector base, much less a far larger one. Because of this supply and quality limitation, there will never be any meaningful financial scale within a timeframe which matter to hardly anyone reading this thread, if ever.
There is also no "efficient" local market to sell back into and contrary to what any US collector may believe, only a die hard collector finds collecting sufficiently interesting to import their collection when buying and then export the coins later to sell it. It's easy enough for US based collectors to overlook this because we do not have this problem.
Yet over time great coins continue to rise in value
Where do you get your ‘facts’ ?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Your post did not contradict mine as I never said coins would not appreciate at all. What is your specific question?
Not all coins are rising in value. I'd like to see an estimate of the total market value of coins over time. I would hypothethize that it is rising slower than GDP.
His point is that there are factors that affect coin prices other than just the disposable income of a general population.
I think it could be interesting to think of hobby health in terms of network theory ( maybe watch this???? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM1KaaTez0A. ) You could argue that the hobby has a better chance of future health in the US where it already has a collector base and commercial footprint. It's easier to get plugged into the hobby when you have those things. The corollary of that is that there is more resistance to growth in demographics or regions where there isn't already a collecting footprint. It does not necessarily follow that areas that are under collected have a better chance of appreciating in value just by virtue of the fact they are under collected. The fact that it's under collected could be its primary disadvantage.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
>
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This is exactly my point. The belief that affluence is a cause is a complete myth. There is correlation but no causation except within the existing collector population, as no amount of money is enough to turn a non-collector into a collector. I like my collection as much as anyone else on this forum but this doesn't lead me to believe that the non-collecting public can hardly wait to have more money to buy coins. (Yes, I am somewhat exaggerating.)
>
This is also exactly my position.
A component of my claim (made in my prior post) is the insurmountable obstacle from the lack of an adequate supply which no amount of money can overcome and which I never see anyone address in an implied claim of future growth.
What exactly are these future prospective collectors supposed to buy since the coins most collectors want the most were never saved in any number and those that do exist are disproportionately "dreck"? Members of this forum disproportionately do not want this coinage, yet it's believable that someone else will and pay good money for it? How credible is that?
The only reason I can see that anyone can believe the future growth story in countries with limited or no collecting history is because they make abstract assumptions which do not reflect reality. I encountered this with collectors in South Africa all the time who believed the same theme.
An example that demonstrates this point is modern Mexican coinage. There has been a substantial growth of the Mexican and Mexican descended population in the US in the last 50 years, yet the demand for (and value of) 20th century Mexican coinage has barely changed since the 1960s.
The most popular areas of collecting are probably Britain, German States, Russia, and China. Other popular areas include France, Japan, Ancient Greece, Ancient Rome, Italy, Austria, Switzerland, Korea, etc. Any Latin American issues would probably be another tier down, as although there are highly valued pieces, they come up relatively infrequently and the collector base at the high end is sparse. German Empire could be on a similar tier for the same reason. Most 20th-century issues (besides China) will probably be farther down. This of course all depends on what is meant by “popularity.” If you count modern bullion issues the answers could be completely different, or if you are focusing on the lower end vs. the higher end of the market, or on the average overall value of coins sold, or purely on the number of collectors and not on the strength of the market or the frequency of sales, etc. There are also particular series and coins that are popular within countries that overall might not be - in fact, I think this question would be better answered in particular series or coins than entire countries, because there will always be popular and unpopular issues within countries, and owning a coin from Britain or China won’t necessarily make it easy to sell. But, those popular coins and series are too numerous and specific to list, and they are not static in their popularity. My philosophy has never been to focus on types or series, but to just trust my taste and to buy what I like and what sticks out to me (which in a sense is avoiding what is popular, if “popular” is to be interpreted as “typical” or “established”). When it comes time to resell, those pieces will hopefully stick out to others as well. The ultimate popularity lies in the individual coin.
Gobrecht's Engraved Mature Head Large Cent Model
https://www.instagram.com/rexrarities/?hl=en
I have met individuals that BECAUSE of their wealth jumped into the coin hobby and spent millions first time buying .
Lets get back to the OP's question:
I find China ,and other asian countries coinage in demand as well as Russia, US, Europe, Mexican ,Canadian , Australian , and South American coins to be quite in demand. Thats alot of coinage to choose and compete for. It doesn't matter whether the demand is coming from a countries own collector base or from outside demand....the fact is demand is there enough that there is competition in auctions. and growth in auction results over the long term for many coins is pretty clear.
Yes some series are more in demand than others .....always has been and will continue to be.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
If they are from a developed country, it's a lot more likely.
I was singling you out. Mostly, it depends upon how much "growth" someone expects.
The point I was making is that if anyone looks at how coins are actually priced under the TPG economic model which is what drives current higher prices, there is no realistic prospect for the coins from countries with limited to no history of collecting to even come close to replicating prior US price performance.
Most collectors seem to conflate "popular" with an actual preference. Popular measured by the size of the collector base usually doesn't mean collectors actually prefer it over less widely collected series. It usually means a combination of supply and budget limitations.
WCC
Your not addressing the OP’s question .
Why not ?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Similar opinion to some of the prior posts:
UK
China
Russia
Maybe Germany (selectively)
Edit: Forgot Australia.
Interesting thread. In my experience I think German States, Belgium, Poland, Morocco, Great Britain, Russia, Japan, Islamic coins have very good potential to make profit. I have only been collecting for 21 years. The only way to get a feel for what's hot and what's not is to see many many coins at coin shows and look at many many auctions on Ebay. I think eye appeal helps value. I also see a trend in larger crown size coins becoming more popular. In world coin collecting I collect topical/themed collections so you get a feel of what's more rare than others. There are so many world countries that it would be hard to say which are most popular with all coin collectors.
Coin Junky...
I disagree with the assertion that increasing affluence in a given country does not affect demand for that country’s coinage. In the case of countries like Russia that already had a collector base, I think it has had a large effect. Russia even has collectible coin vending machines, something I have never seen in any other country. It helps that they have a broad base of educated people with some disposable income. However, I agree that if a country never had a collector base to begin with, newfound wealth is not going to create one.
We should also consider that the new global middle and upper class could be contributing to demand for popular world coins in general, like European thalers and crowns, as well as ancients. The internet has created a global market for this material that once was nonexistent.
China coin for sure is one of them. most common Junk boat more than double since last year not to mentioned other not that common coins.
This is my primary point. I cannot speak specifically to Russia and it's evident it has a collecting culture of some sort. So my claims would not apply to an equal extent, just as it wouldn't to the US.
One reason I have also made this claim is because I repeatedly read that the most affluent non-collectors are supposedly interested in buying the most expensive coins when it is obvious this isn't true. It's effectively as probable as being struck by lightning or winning the lottery.
I agree this happens but almost exclusively from the existing collector population.
Yes, I’m envisioning a Russian or Chinese collector going through the same progression I did. I started with low cost, common coins from my own country (USA) and then began buying more expensive US coins when I had more income. Then I branched into nicer world coins like thalers, crowns etc. from major countries like Russia, Germany, U.K., etc. I can’t imagine a middle class Russian or Chinese person approaching it much differently. I also can’t imagine a newly affluent Russian oligarch suddenly buying expensive coins. Priorities would more likely be expensive booze and women.
There is a lot of potential in a large number of world coins. Most series simply are not widely collected even if they are common. The coins get bounced around from accumulator to hoarder to poundage and often end up getting lost or melted for their metallic content. Coins are perceived to be common because there are a million "circulating" among collectors in the US. But when you try to actually locate one or find a collection they are nowhere to be seen. In their home countries they are far more likely to be melted.
I'm thinking of very common coins like the Honduran 20 centavo. Even in aggregate there were fewer than 8 million minted and the coins have .072 OZ of silver. Most of them were heavily circulated very long ago. Even as a type coin it might not be so easy to find if a couple million people wanted one. Nice VF's to AU's would be elusive except nobody collects them still.
There are just so very many world coins with tremendous potential.
Except why would a couple of million people ever want one? Why would a thousand people all of the sudden want one? And considering that you are talking about Honduras, the original banana republic, and a relatively poor country where a majority of the people just think about how to get by day-to-day, why would even a hundred people ever want one?
There may be potential in theory, but I just don't see it in practice.
Type collecting is very popular and the Honduras is an interesting country. These coins are very attractive.
I keep thinking there are 7,000,000,000 people so if even the tiniest percentage see these coins and can buy one with a few clicks and a few dollars the potential is boundless. A world silver type collection is quite affordable as are many other collections that contain this coin.
There are lots of younger people making all sorts of collections. Who knows what they'll be needing.
All very true, but none have bearing on the topic.
Coin dealers have been using differing versions of this theory for decades. They are good marketing tactics, but reality had proven much different.
The increasing population of Mexican (or Mexican-American) people who now have the money and love of their heritage to start collecting is the one I am most familiar with and which has never panned out.
The only Mexicans new to numismatics that I see are young dealers who would rather be self-employed in a country were employees make very little salary and successful, rich men who need places to park (aka hide) their money outside of banks.
I may be cynical, but I've heard all the theories and none of them ever has legs. Oh yes, they sound plausible, but that's about it.
And history shows us that the absolute number of coin collectors is decreasing not increasing.
Your position is not cynicism. The reason why the theories you have heard "don't have legs" is because it's abstract and has little if anything to do with the motivation anyone has to become a collector or pay the prices someone else thinks some coin should be worth.
I've tried to come up with poor estimates of the collector population over time, and it's tough. I haven't seen anything that tells me decisively that it is decreasing. I am fairly confident that if it is growing, it is growing more slowly than the population and GDP. The fraction of the population that is collecting coins is definitely going down.
I set my collecting goals and collecting budget under the assumption that collecting will get less popular over time. I think a lot of bullishness you hear out there is coming from dealers themselves, or people that collect specific things that are currently en vogue.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
It's a complicated answer. The numismatic community frames the topic in the context of the "coin market" but there isn't a uniform market, it's very fragmented. It can grow or shrink in the aggregate but this will impact each collector differently financially depending what they collect.
The bullishness you are referring to substantially comes from those who are promoting the financial side (auction firms, TPG, coin dealers, and to some extent the numismatic press) and the collectors who agree with them.
I also believe it is decreasing as a recreational activity in the developed world where most of the collector base is currently located but don't know of any method to prove it either way.
Gee I better sell my collection
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I figured that Hercules would be collecting Ancients
Latin American Collection
I don't collect for profit, so the outcome doesn't make that much difference to me. If the buyer likes what they collect enough and collects within their "comfort zone", the financial outcome shouldn't make any difference to them either.
If the buyer doesn't like what they collect enough to potentially lose a noticeable proportion of their outlay, they should collect at a lower financial level or not collect at all. I avoid buying coins where It would bother me enough to lose money. That's one reason I don't buy the coins most collectors do and don't collect some of the coins I did in the past.
I think the number of "coin collectors" depends on how you define the term. People who believe the numbers are decreasing are really talking about the number of sophisticated and knowledgeable collectors buying in specific areas of the market. These collectors are almost invariably spending significant amounts of money and most are older Americans. These numbers are decreasing because so many baby boomers are retiring and there are a lot fewer such collectors in the younger generations.
"New" collectors are far less visible. They don't spend a lot of money and many don't have any thousand dollar coins. They are collecting different coins and they are doing it in different ways and in different countries. These collectors are younger and maturing rapidly. They will own almost all the coins in only one more generation.
There are a lot of them.
In the '60's there were 10,000,000 collectors today there are 20,000,000 in the US alone. There are countless millions all over the world today though some might never have enough trading ability or income to have much effect on coins. There are probably twenty times as many collectors today as twenty years ago and now the market has been transformed by the internet. A kid in Tanis Tuva doesn't need to find a coin shop to buy coins.
Not every coin will benefit from all this increased interest but it is so massive that most will.
As far as modern Mexico it has always been an enigma to me. There is certainly some interest among Mexican immigrants to the US but there are a lot of these coins that have been set aside. Because of the high savings rate I personally have set aside only better dates and a few Gems. Most of the post-1958 coinage can be located though Gem material can be elusive.
I like almost all world moderns but I'm sure some of these will not have much interest for generations to come largely because many of them are exceedingly common. Some of the Yugoslavian issues simply exist by the millions. There are hundreds of issues that are equally common but there are others that are highly desirable and scarce like much of the Swiss coinage. People have taken moderns for granted so we ended up with highly lopsided availability. Coins didn't save themselves and some were simply ignored for the crime of containing no silver at all.
That seems to be a generous estimate. US population is 330 million, which would mean 1 out of every 16 people is a coin collector and out of 1 million people, 62,500 would be collectors.
However... there is (or, at least, was) an annual coin show where I live. There are about 1 million people who are within an hour and a half drive of the show. Year after year, the show attendance is about 500.
Almost none of these people are ever going to be spending any meaningful amounts by paying a "noticeable" premium over FV.
The number from your post attending the local coin show is a more accurate indication of those who will influence the future price level.
Agreed. And not only that, a fair number of those who do go to the show are casual collectors who will never really have much of an influence on price levels of top(ish) pop coins, either currently or in the future.
Hmmmm, Are you counting people who toss their change in a jar at the end of the day a collector? If so then I could agree with your numbers.
The number of coin collectors in the US eroded from 1965 to 1999. This wasn't easy to see because the number of sophisticated collectors only decreased marginally and their aggregate demand increased substantially. But as the hobby was busily not attracting new collectors for two generations there were no youngsters to fill the shoes or buy the coins of the retiring baby boomers and prices have been mostly stagnant for more than a decade.
However with the introduction of the states coins many millions of new collectors joined the ranks. Their buying power is still somewhat weak but this is the way collectors go. They start small and then they branch out as they increase the sizes of their collections. This process often takes decades for each individual. Many are just approaching the age at which they have good solid incomes but many have families and other responsibilities which will limit the growth of their collections for a few more years. It's the aggregate growth in the value of collections which is (and is correlated) to total demand. This growth is still not apparent in many coins because so few younger collectors are buying '16-D dimes in AU. But they are putting together sets of chBU and gemmy Ike dollars fast enough to cause increasing prices. Pristine Ikes are now wholesaling between $3.50 and $16.
The increased number of coin collectors is mot visible in most coins yet. A 50% increase in the number of collectors for British India Rupees has certainly stabilized and firmed this market. But a 50% increase is only the start and there will be far more as the years go by.
Consider that there were about 20,000 collectors of Rupees in the past and a 50% increase translates to about 10,000 new collectors. 10,000 is a significant increase but unlike in the past these new collectors are mostly in India. More importantly there are probably 20,000 new collectors for the Republic of India nickel and cu/ ni Rupees. Again these collectors are mostly in India. Where there had been fewer than 1000 collectors of modern India world wide there are now 20,000. This is a twenty fold increase!!!! This is why moderns are soaring and it's only begun. These collections will grow and branch out as well.
The next twenty years will be remarkably strong for the hobby and the coin market. Collectors will do extremely well financially and have a lot of fun while just as always investors will find a way to lose money then interest.
I define a "collector" as anyone who has noticed a difference between two coins and has already sought to find a coin with more differences. So long as their collections are growing in value (no matter how small) I call them "coin collectors". The sale of coin folders, especially continuing sales, is closely correlated to the number of real collectors out there. Now days there are other means to collect so these have to be watched as well.
Anecdotally, I have noticed Philippines coinage trending higher.
https://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistry/collectors-showcase/world-coins/one-coin-per-year-1600-2017/2422
I missed your post earlier.
I am mostly familiar with Spanish auctions outside the US and I am not aware of any "significant" Spanish colonial collection sold elsewhere since I started collecting this coinage somewhat over 15 years ago. I do have catalogues from the Swiss Bank Corporation (now Sincona) dated earlier.
It also depends upon what you mean by "strong provenance". I'd consider Sellschopp or Patterson (for what I collect) to meet this definition and I have seen a few of these coins but very few, sold in the US or elsewhere.
Caballero
Rudman
Latin American Collection
Clyde Hubbard Mexican collection
.....if I only new I would have bought a lot more !
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I wasn't clear in my first paragraph. I was describing non-US auctions excluding Spain.
I don't know where Rudman lives (or lived) but presume it's the US because his NGC registry includes or included a substantial US collection. His collection was also sold by Heritage.
Caballero was sold by Aureo & Calico and fits the context of my prior comments.
I'm pretty sure Isaac Rudman lives in the Dominican Republic.