Question for World Collectors: What are the Strongest Markets in Non-US Coinage
Clio
Posts: 488 ✭✭✭✭✭
As the title says.
I have collected different series and I find it difficult to judge the interest for a series. It seems so tough to be able to find examples and yet even more difficult to sell examples. It can be disheartening.
I think without knowing a great deal, my assumptions would be with Spanish 8 Reales and the like. Pillar Dollars, early colonial era crowns and whatnot command premiums in most grades.
Are there other places you find strong collecting interests? Or is it that the largest interest lie solely in the top grades of any series. In Irish coins I find there's little interest in anything under Uncirculated conditions. That is, save for a few key dates. Despite guides everywhere insistent that AU examples should also bring some premium.
Perhaps my issue is spending too much time with issues in the early 20th century. Maybe I should reach further back and stay clear of more modern issues. Those with high book prices and low interest.
I know I am generalizing a great deal here. I am just wanting to start the conversation.
https://numismaticmuse.com/ My Web Gallery
The best collecting goals lie right on the border between the possible and the impossible. - Andy Lustig, "MrEureka"
Comments
China, Russia, India. All three of these countries have more and more wealthier people that are collecting and these countries are in high demand.
When you factor in the fact that Ireland has a population lower than the Dallas metro area, your observations don't seem too out of place. The number of coins and collectors will be much lower than what you'd find in a larger country.
Don't feel too pressured to just do what's popular. Although, I'm guessing that is not a problem if you are collecting coins to begin with. I think it is great that you are collecting something isn't widely collected. It's like gathering the lost children of the numismatic world. That can have value on its own.
Spanish Colonial stuff has pretty broad appeal. I can see someone in North America, South America, or Europe having having multiple reasons to take an interest in it.
I think ancient coins are in a similar boat. Ancient coins have very broad appeal. However, it seems like the ancient coin field is very fractured into many subgroups, so you will still find lots of niche's that aren't widely collected. For a lot of people, this is great. It allows "Average Joe" collectors to find a meaningful niche outside the purview of the competition and big spenders.
Finally, I have similar frustrations in the area I collect. I focus most of my frustration on the notion of book prices. It can often get in the way of getting good material for an appropriate market price. A high book price can render a coin for sale effectively unavailable. We seem to be living in an environment where price guides and reference books are being updated less and less frequently. I'm not sure if that will lead to the situation getting worse or better.
To answer your question: In the areas I collect, talers are widely collected and have very broad interest. Even folks that don't collect them usually want one.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
that depends on what you are selling and or buying!
China
8 Reales Madness Collection
I think this certainly stands as a barrier. Seems far fewer people price world coins based on sold auction listings and moreso on guide pricing.
I think I can agree with that. I just feel like the markets where my buying potential is most active seem to have the worst returns. I think it may be just my lack of patience.
I know nothing about Indian coinage but I know that Russian and Chinese seem very hot right now. Feels like I have a lot of competition on pieces I bid on and rarely do I win.
That's probably my main problem. The stuff I'm selling I shouldn't have bought so no one wants it haha.
https://numismaticmuse.com/ My Web Gallery
The best collecting goals lie right on the border between the possible and the impossible. - Andy Lustig, "MrEureka"
There is effectively no correlation between the level of affluence and collecting interest. I'd include China and Russia in the list of "most interest" but not India, other than it's apparent there is more interest there than in the majority of countries since there is limited or no evidence of local organized collecting.
It depends upon the definition of "strongest".
If by the number of collectors, I presume it's China since there is "meaningful" local collecting though don't know all the specifics.
If by the price level, I'd say Britain is first but it's substantially driven by demand from US buyers.
I don't consider ancients to be a market anymore than "world" coins. But of this group, I'd rank ancient Greek and Roman generically at least equivalent to British.
The demand for Spanish colonial is mostly at modest to nominal prices. There aren't very many coins worth meaningful amounts until it's in higher grades. Another impediment to the price level is that there is limited to almost no supply in the quality most collectors want to buy. In most instances, this demand and the higher prices that go with it seems to be driven by US based collectors.
I think what I mean to say is what area of world coins has the best return on investment. What areas coins will always have a buyer. Maybe not profit wise but more a solid area where if you needed to out your coins you wouldn't take a total bath on them.
https://numismaticmuse.com/ My Web Gallery
The best collecting goals lie right on the border between the possible and the impossible. - Andy Lustig, "MrEureka"
That's why the coins I see seem to sit indefinitely. I don't know about local price guides but Krause is usually overpriced for the coins I know best.
What is your goal? Are you more interested in buying coins that will sell for more later or just your money back at resale?
Buying coins that will become noticeably more valuable is mostly a "crapshoot". Maybe a few dealers who buy and sell regularly have a good indication but I doubt hardly anyone else does. I made meaningful money with South African coinage earlier but it was by accident and it was hardly life changing.
I thought the coins were "cheap" and knew it was hard to buy at the time but this didn't provide any indication any would be worth a lot more later. There is also no scale in this market and practically all others. If someone bought British proof gold 10-15 years ago, it's a lot of money to most collectors but this is an exception.
There are coins that are likely to always be "popular" but where the percentage loss you might incur is still noticeable, whether you "buy it right" or not. US collectors (Including members here) have a tendency to "pay up" for quality. That's fine to a point but this creates the risk that when you go to sell, no one else will want the coin at anywhere near the price or premium you paid. Financially, I'd never pay anything close to US level premiums for quality on most if any non-US coinage, as I don't believe collecting will hardly ever become as financialized.
As one example, I own six of the eight 1790 Austrian Netherlands Insurrection in grades MS-63 to MS-65. I bought it from about 2004 to 2006 ungraded except for one. It's presumably worth more now than I paid (combined) but less than I could have sold it before because the TPG counts while still low have increased noticeably. The more common florin (NGC MS-64 with nice toning) is probably worth about one-third less. I bought it for about $650.
The crown sized 3 Florin and gold 14 florin (which I do not own) have probably done better, even though the first is not scarce at all. All of these coins are "popular" but a lot more common than I initially believed.
I sell world coins on eBay (fixed price, not auction) and pricing isn't always easy. I prefer to use fixed price rather than auction results as a reference because, for a lot of world coins, there are not many buyers (at least as compared to US issues). With fixed price listings, you know that the buyer wanted the coin at the listed price but with auctions, you need more than one or two bidders to get a good reading on value. I regularly buy at auction on eBay and resell in my eBay store, listed at twice or more of what I paid, just because the right bidders weren't online when the listing ended.
FWIW...
This was an option this whole time??
https://numismaticmuse.com/ My Web Gallery
The best collecting goals lie right on the border between the possible and the impossible. - Andy Lustig, "MrEureka"
British Trade Dollars. Lots of them coming up in sales and prices are going bonkers. Glad I already have most of the set.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars
If you don't mind breaking the law. However, there are a few ways to break the law while buying coins too.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
Countries with above-average values and value increases are countries which have an active, native coin collecting culture. Germany, Japan, Russia/USSR, Britain come to mind. Modern Greece is popular in Greece itself, where collecting modern coins is OK but collecting ancient coins is illegal. China is a difficult case, because (a) it's riddled with counterfeits far more than other series, and (b) you never know when the Communist government is going to issue some darn fool law like outlawing coin ownership.
There are language barriers also to consider. Japan, Russia, Greece and China aren't as popular in America, simply because the script used on the coins isn't Latin alphabet/Western numerals so fewer collectors get interested enough to start a collection, and the locally-made reference books and websites aren't in English.
Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius, "Meditations"
Apparently I have been awarded one DPOTD.
I choose a coin series to collect because of my interest in them -- not too concerned with what happens when I sell. In the worst case I can take a big tax deduction.
World crowns seem to be very popular, everyone likes large silver dollar sized coins.
Also if you collect a certain country, try to connect with collectors from that country on FB, etc. Probably easiest way to sell if you ever have to. For example, I collect thai and have collectors, dealers etc from Thailand on a thai Facebook page. Also if I end of moving there I can utilize the collectors there to sell my coins
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
One thing I can say for China - the times I have been there I have been able to find coin shops fairly easily.
As you mentioned in your OP, you are trying to generalize when looking at this question. I think you have to be specific if you want an answer that can help you make a decision. A lot of the answers you have gotten are from people who can comment on their specific areas. I don't know if there are a great deal of "generalist" world collectors, but I am one of them. As for trying to make some sense of the world market, you really have to be an active participant to get a feel for what is popular. I have been a hardcore world/ancient guy for 10-12 years now and have seen areas go up, areas go down and areas go up and down and up again in that short period. The market is changing quickly with our ability to connect all over the world and reach coins that would never have been available just 10 years ago. Some of the things mentioned above are incorrect, in my opinion, but I can only say that in general terms, as the market has pockets within every country/series that have consistently done well. For instance, the size of the country, the nature of its emerging middle class, the population growth/decline, etc. have not shown to be determinants of coin market health, so to speak. Demand (and, of course to a lesser extent, supply) is what drives coin prices. Other than China, I have not seen a strong correlation to these trends when analyzing the world coin market. So, having said that, I will offer a few thoughts on what has already been said.
China - China has been up and down and is now blazing hot. Prices were strong 10 years ago, dipped down to reasonable levels, but have now been trending to the moon. Coins that I thought were moderately high at say $250, now sell for $800. But, China has a lot of unique factors that make it such an interesting area to collect. For one, China had a system of currency that basically lasted 2000 years. That currency (cash) is not very popular, save for the rare pieces. In addition, there were very few precious metal coins in China until the late 1800s. In the early 1900s until the 1940s, China produced so many different coins and varieties that I doubt there is one resource that actually has every coin noted. This is where, in my opinion, Chinese numismatics draws its' interest. You have a great deal of collector segments, silver crowns, rarities, etc. Combine the very short period of "western" coinage with a huge collector base that covers the entire world, and you get a perfect storm for runaway pricing and coin chasing.
Coins associated with China, Eastern trade, etc. - As mentioned, British Trade Dollars are very popular right now, and prices have risen accordingly. French Indo China Piastres are also rising every day, it seems. I believe some other series, such as 8 reales, have also been boosted by their role in Eastern trade during the "coming out" of Eastern nations.
**Losing money vs making money in coins ** - This has always been an incorrect assumption that is sold in the coin world every day, it seems. If your goal is to make money, it is like any other means of making money. If you put in the time and effort, you can create a profitable endeavor. It requires discipline and knowledge, but if you treat it like a business, you can be successful. If you try to be a collector and business at the same time, you will lessen that chance of profitability, unless you make business decisions the primary determinate of where to spend your money. If you are a collector, it does not apply to you. In that case, it is like fishing or video games or whatever, you are spending money that you do not intend to get back. You are paying for your enjoyment.
**Pricing **- Price guides are just that, "guides." They provide extremely valuable information and are essential to the coin market. However, pricing is inevitably outdated in this modern techno-world. But, relative rarity and other info provided is vitally important to the world market. Pricing is best obtained through true auction pricing from larger auction venues - eBay, Heritage, Stack's, CNG, etc.. eBay fixed price offerings are even less reliable than price guides because nearly all are rooted in what the seller thinks they are worth and not actual market prices. Inevitably, there are always pieces that slip through the process and become outliers, but a reasonable person can make an assumption on pricing based on trends in less than 10 minutes on line.
Popular countries, coins, etc. - The markets for each country are unique. Within each country, there are segments growing, declining and staying in a range as far as demand and pricing. In general, I would say a lot of the generally declining markets are the bigger/western countries. GB, USA, Canada, Germany, France, Austria, Netherlands, Spain, Norway, Sweden, Brazil, etc. are all markets I would consider flat to declining. But, I could pick out series within each of those countries that are rising in price and definitely have more demand than available supply of material. India is hit or miss within areas of the market and bargains can be had as the vast variety of stuff has not yet fully appreciated. Like GB, I think the British India coinage of the 1900s is generally blah. The one positive these mature markets have is the base of collectors. Even though pricing in many series is soft, there are enough collectors to provide a safety net, so to speak.
I could write forever on this subject because it is so broad, but I think it is best for your purposes to give some ideas that may help.
Coins that tend to be popular and maintain their popularity have many things going for them. For example, they have a collector base, they have a historical context (place, time or person), they are higher grade, they are made of precious metals, they are 1 year types or the only silver crown for a particular country, and so on. Other examples include certification, theme (animals, zodiac, etc.) general collectability (for example, some islamic coins are hard for westerners to decipher, therefore not everyone will find that appealing), availability and yes, even size matters.
As for coins to make money (subject to your time line), you have to find the coins that appeal/will appeal to investors/collectors that aren't already priced unreasonably. In the end, most of your ability to make money will depend on the price you got the item. This requires research, a plan and a deep dive into the myriad varieties of sellers (eBay, Heritage, local stores, coin shows, non coin auctions) if you want to be successful.
https://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistry/collectors-showcase/world-coins/one-coin-per-year-1600-2017/2422
Just a quick note to point out that my mention of getting values from fixed price offerings earlier in this thread was based on sales, not listing prices. There is a difference. What people demonstrate they are willing to pay is definitely more reliable than the numbers in a price guide.
I agree with your comments but the reason I know (not believe) this extract is correct is because it's evident there is no correlation between increasing affluence and the price level. Current collectors will use their increasing prosperity to compete for the coins they want but no amount of wealth is going to turn anyone into a collector and non-collectors don't desire it so that they can buy coins.
Economically, the "market capitalization" is so insignificant it's a rounding error. On one occasion, I provided an itemized estimate on the total value of "investible" coins elsewhere for South Africa (Union and ZAR) which came out to about $30MM to $50MM. At the peak of their market bubble in 2011, maybe it would have been as much as $200MM. Maybe 20 to 30 countries are larger but even the largest is still immaterial in the context of liquid markets.
In most countries, there is little or no evidence of organized collecting at all. Few if any dealers, no auctions, no coin clubs, no numismatic periodicals, no reference books...nothing. Presumably, there are some collectors in every country but it has little if any relevance to the price since most of the demand and most of the better coins are owned elsewhere, probably usually in the US first and Europe second. It's also virtually impossible for collecting to achieve any scale most of the time as the lack of local collecting in the past constricts the supply to be bought now and there is no market to sell into anyway.
All I know is I continue to get unsolicited offers for a series I collect. In some instances often double and even triple to what originally I paid.
Also it has been my experience that a high quality coin ....coupled as ( (a rare low pop coin).... if held can produce nice profits.
Holding period counts for these results. many coins I have had 10 to 15 years .
And please don't ask how well they did against the S&P 500.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Iceland......Hands Down.... LOL
I really don't want to be misinterpreted here as someone trying to make money. When I say that I sell coins it is only because I have found replacements for examples in my collection. My post was meant to explore collecting avenues that weren't total money sinks. Areas where I could potentially focus that if I did decide to sells dupes I could expect some buyers versus virtually none and selling a $50 coin for $12 at auction.
I have focused very heavily on buying Silver Irish Shillings for my collection. It's a short set all in at 10 coins. Which suites my collecting style since I like quality coins but I can't afford tons of them. I would say my collecting budget caps out around $500 for a given piece. Relatively small compared to collectors here and the vast majority of my purchases are under $150. One of the things I learned after my first year collecting the Irish shillings is that anything less than Mint State in the shillings series really has no interest outside the 1937. The only interest seems to come from shady sellers who buy my AU examples and list them as uncirculated.
So where I am at now is that my primary focused collecting has run dry. I rarely come across examples for it and I feel like while I'm waiting on the last coin to show up for it I'd like to move on to another series. What I then tried was Edward VII shillings. Another short series, Only 10 pieces. However I bought two au pieces of the tougher dates and then abandoned the series. I sold the ones I bought at a pittance of what I paid. I felt like I got an okay price for them when I bought them and hoped I would at least get close to what I paid when I let them go but instead I got something like 20% of what I paid. I imagine this is partially due to impatience and after awhile I decided to auction them since I was tired of looming over them.
So where I am at now is I am looking for an area of collecting where I can have something to work on in-between larger purchases. Ideally coins under $100 each that scratch the itch of collecting. My main concern is that I put together a small series and if I decide to move them and change my collecting direction to other things that I can get at least 50% of what I paid. Ideally more but I am just saying that it's not about selling coins to make money. I just want to make sure my collection focuses have some following. I think the issue with the Edward Shillings was that I was just never going to be able to put together a MS set. They don't show up often, ones listed at 3x the price they should be and the only affordable ones for me at AU and below, have no motivated collectors. Seems the collectors of the series either collect slick examples for an album or UNC examples and the gradient of collectors in between just doesn't seem to be there.
Again I haven't been around that long in the collecting world and I am still learning. I don't treat coins as an investment I never have but I have a tight budget so when I do buy coins it would be nice to feel like if some day a nice example of something I wanted came along, I could sell a few things to try and get it. I put $80 aside each month to collect coins. That's it. I sometimes get credit rewards from my CC or eBay bucks from past purchases and those get added. So what that means is that when I see a $500 coin listed I would like to buy I need to move on some things to afford it. I hope that clarifies a bit more of where I am coming from. With a small budget I just try very hard to make sure some money can be recouped market permitting from past collecting endeavors.
My current consideration is putting together a set of George V shillings. Specifically the sterling issues. It's a small set and examples are available and UNC examples are affordable. I think from past experiences pricing myself out of UNC examples in a series is just going to lead to an unsatisfying collection all around.
I do appreciate all the feedback given here and I do try and research myself some as well. At the end of the day collecting a series from the outside looking in is just a totally different experience.
https://numismaticmuse.com/ My Web Gallery
The best collecting goals lie right on the border between the possible and the impossible. - Andy Lustig, "MrEureka"
And as a quick note: https://imgur.com/a/mbw7GAJ This is my collection. Or at least the pieces I have nice images of. It should give a better scope of what I am working with.
https://numismaticmuse.com/ My Web Gallery
The best collecting goals lie right on the border between the possible and the impossible. - Andy Lustig, "MrEureka"
There are likely more collectors of Irish coins in the US and Great Britain than there are in Ireland. There are certainly more people claiming to be Irish by decent in the US than natural born in Ireland. The two main Irish dealers are from Texas and England.
I agree with this naturally, and see that in many series, US or world, issues with multiple layers of demand (to steal from Doug Winter), do very well. Spanish Colonial can overlap with US, Spain, and the country of issue, British Trade overlapping with China as well, etc.
What is a high price for a book? $100, $200, $500?
Agree with much of what you said.
Latin American Collection
Auctioning world coins is risky. Demand for most is thin and if the bidders you need don't show up, your results will likely not be satisfactory. As I noted above, I sell world coins by fixed price listings on eBay. Some time ago, I tried an experiment. I took 20 or so coins (half were silver), each with a record of sales in the $15 to $25 range, and ran them as auctions with a 99 cent opening bid. Two or three sold, only one got more than one bid. Afterwards, I put the unsold pieces in my store, priced comparably to past eBay sales ($15 to $25). It took around a year, but all sold for the listed price or close to it.
FWIW...
Oh yeah I believe you. I suppose it can be said that I am just impatient and that's the main root of my problems. Too quick to buy, too quick to sell.
https://numismaticmuse.com/ My Web Gallery
The best collecting goals lie right on the border between the possible and the impossible. - Andy Lustig, "MrEureka"
I meant book prices as being catalog prices for the coins themselves. For example, Krause may list a coin at $500 that has an auction value of $50. My limited experience says that if a US dealer obtains one of those coins, they'll mark it up for $400-500 dollars and then pretend to get angry when I offer $80. It's pretty demoralizing. I have to shop with dealers that know the coins and the other catalogs available well enough to price independently of what any book says. Krause creates a lot of collecting obstacles for me. Occasionally Krause will be too low and work for me, but that is pretty rare on German coins.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
@Clio - I enjoyed reading your post. I think I have had similar experiences as well with world coins: trouble finding nice (Unmessed with) material, taking a hit when it comes to selling, etc.
I too, tried to find a series that was cheap but fun. For me it was the Roty Semeuse/Sower 50 centimes, 1 and 2 franc coins. I look for toned coins. But again, when selling these you can take a hit.
So in the end I am actually buying fewer coins overall but more expensive ones that are “wow” coins to me. I am not looking at filling a series.
I looked at your set - those are great coins! Not sure you need to complete a prescribed set.
My current "Box of 20"
I can agree with that. I think there's a part of me that wants to complete sets which is where I seem to find my most financial ruin. Buying a coin that's needed to complete something. Versus where I have the most success where I just buy nice coins.
Also beautiful 50c. I do keep a look out for nice francs! Haven't come across the right ones yet I suppose.
https://numismaticmuse.com/ My Web Gallery
The best collecting goals lie right on the border between the possible and the impossible. - Andy Lustig, "MrEureka"
I have sold a few hundred lots on eBay, but it was mostly 2006-2010 when it was a better venue. Most sales by value were South Africa Union which I listed at BIN with "make an offer". This coinage was a lot stronger back then and the coins sold quickly, but almost always to South African buyers. There is virtually no demand for this coinage at "market price" anywhere else.
In 2016, I sold about 100 coins through GC. A combination of South Africa, Bolivian republic decimals and a few Spanish colonials. The prices were all over the place with some very low due to a $1 opening bid.
South Africa Union did the worst, even worse than Bolivia which is saying a lot. As examples, a 1946 shilling and 1930 6P sold for $28 and $11. I paid $585 and $250. A 1733 Mexico 1R VG-8 sold for $62. I paid $300 ungraded. A 1767 Bolivia VG details 1R sold for $11. My cost was about $50 but it was a nice coin I owned for about 10 years and never should have sold it.
On the other end, Mexico NGC AU-50 2R sold for over $800 for which I paid about $150. A few of the Bolivian coins also did much better than I expected, like an 1864 Bolivia P-40 Boliviano which sold for over $200 and cost me $60.
I should have sold some of these coins myself or just kept it. The reason I chose this option is because I wasn't interested in the administrative aspects for mostly very low value coins. This is one reason I don't buy coins many below $250 anymore.
I believe there is now and will be going forward less hole filling to complete sets.
Concurrently though, it's still financially risky to pay an outlier price (assuming the buyer even knows the current price level) because this seems to be a mostly US practice. Whatever demand exists elsewhere, collectors elsewhere don't pay US type premiums as often for quality because it doesn't seem to be as important to them and there is a limited to no market locally at these prices.
In my primary series now, I'm looking for "wow" coins too but I'm not paying more than very low multiples for say, MS-65 versus MS-63. I have on occasion done this but it's usually not necessary because the coins aren't available and probably don't exist like that anyway. It's mostly a very few borderline UNC, still a low quantity of "dreck" and virtually nothing in the middle.
For growth in prices to be sustainable I think it matters a lot how developed the numismatic hobby is in the country of origin. For example, when visiting my in laws in Russia last summer I could see that coin collecting is very popular there. I even got to use a numismatic vending machine for the very first time. In addition to Russian base metal commemoratives, it offered Ike dollars, Churchill crowns, and the 2009 Lincoln series. Not to mention that when I put in a 1000 ruble note it gave me a handful of 10 ruble coins in change that I picked through for circulating commemoratives.
One of my best purchases ever was a 1966 Russian mint set that I bought in a mail order catalog for a few dollars when I was in high school in the 80’s. That set now sells in the hundreds of dollars.
Gotcha, thanks for clarifying
Latin American Collection
How cool is that?! And I lived in Japan where there is a vending machine for every imaginable thing (think clothing for the salarymen who stayed out drinking and missed the last train home who needs fresh clothes for work in the morning). But there was never any numismatic vending machine!
Kind of like me with the Indian Republic proof sets of the 1970s. I used to buy them out of dealer's junk piles.
Imagine the Chinese mint sets in original packaging, then of the 80s, bought for $6-$7 a piece in mid end 80s (previous years) ,now selling close to $2K. Oops but sorry, that was 35 years ago....🥴
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1984-Year-of-The-Rat-Peoples-Bank-China-Set-7-Coins-Token-Shanghai-Mint-/264888041977
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1981-Year-of-The-Rooster-Peoples-Bank-China-Set-7-Coins-Token-Shanghai-Mint-/264847214032
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1982-Year-of-The-Dog-Peoples-Bank-China-7-Coins-Set-Shanghai-Mint-From-1-/264847207998
myEbay
DPOTD 3
@Clio
I don’t refer to people specifically as I really just try to give general knowledge and anecdotal evidence of what I think I know🤣. How you collect is up to you, so don’t think I was implying that you are looking for profit, I was just trying dispel the general notion that you will always lose money in numismatics as it’s far from true. As for further thoughts on your collection, I think you are coming to some important understandings and several people have provided some very good thoughts. Set building is always tricky because you get into the key coins and emotional decisions. I came from the US side, so I know all too well the traps of doing sets. Once I started moving to type collecting, things actually became more enjoyable. And, currently, I couldn’t be more happy with where I am now. First, I should say that my coin collection appeals to me, so it may not work for anyone else, but it may give you some ideas, so here it is. I collect silver crowns by year. I loosely try to get one per year but have several varieties for certain years. Many of the coins in my collection have cost less than $20. Some of my best bargains were purchased at local shops, local shows, antique stores and non coin auctions. I have coins that range from a 1583 Scottish 30 Shillings to modern bullion coins that in my opinion are great bargains when silver is in the teens. When I have the money, I can buy a coin on nearly any level because I have very wide parameters on what “fits” in the collection. Plus, the wide scope allows for purchases from any time, country, etc., but they still generally fall into what I consider a collection. I have taken the added step of having everything certified and put in a PCGS registry, but that is far from necessary to enjoy them and really just matters to me.
So, if I was advising you on how to buy coins that would hold value better than others, I would sum it up in a few thoughts.
https://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistry/collectors-showcase/world-coins/one-coin-per-year-1600-2017/2422
I think the biggest drawback to Irish coins (Free State years to decimal issues) is that there gaps between years, so you can't get a full date run. Some years you have 10 issued denominations, some four.
I can potentially see some interest but not the strongest vs some of the countries mentioned here.
Do these coins show up with strong provenance in collections outside the US?
Wow! That’s pretty incredible!
My observations about the British coin market: mostly hot whenever I'm buying, ice cold whenever I sell. sigh
I feel that haha. I bid on a Shilling yesterday and it went for 2x the only comp I could find.
https://numismaticmuse.com/ My Web Gallery
The best collecting goals lie right on the border between the possible and the impossible. - Andy Lustig, "MrEureka"
That's an observation that probably applies to many coin markets.
There's a great deal of strength in many moderns because so few were saved and now collectors are seeking them. You could buy almost any Russian or Indian mint or proof set for a few dollars 20 years ago but now these go for prices from $100 to over $4000!
Collectors saw vast quantities of thousands of types of moderns and just assumed all were common. In actuality there are more scarce types than common types and these are hardly confined to Russia, India, and China.
Be aware though that just because a coin has increased sharply is no guarantee that it is scarce. The increase has caught up some relatively common coins as well.
There's another trend that is just now getting underway and will grow in importance over the coming decade; Gems can be very rare even for common coins. For instance some of the circulation Paise coinage of India (especially aluminum) of the '70's and '80's can be distressingly common even despite the increases in some cases. But there are coins like the 1975 10p which is exceedingly elusive in Gem. I've seen hundreds of this coin but never one even close to Gem.
There is a great deal of opportunity for profit in world coins but as is typical most of this opportunity will be garnered by collectors rather than speculators. rare coins will ALWAYS be hard to find so when you find any coin you should at least consider the possibility that it is common.
Another problem with Russian and Indian sets was a very high spoilage rate. I knew a guy trying to sell 2 large pallets of Russian Mint Sets years ago. The problem was all sets were ruined from poor storage and the packaging does contribute to the coins being ruined.
Follow the art, history and design in coins so there is some timeless component to the series that would justify interest. And several countries have such coin series in various denominations. If you are driven solely by what is undervalued, consider looking at the economy of the country and whether there is a reasonable middle class in size or has that potential. Contemplate the surviving population and what makes a series appealing. I like the Edward VII Florins because the standing Britannia is a timeless design. Further, these were spent and not saved in quantity so high grade examples are elusive. I think the Cuban ABC Peso has a great Art Moderne look with some controversy as to the surviving population. Collectors look at mintage figures and assume these are common as dirt. And that is simply not the case for MS examples. I have only provided two examples... there are other series that represent value throughout the world.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Yes, there is a remarkable spoilage rate for many modern sets. The most incredible thing is that where there are no mint sets which is typical for moderns, there are almost no BU coins at all. What is so incredible about this is that most mint sets have mintages of only five or ten thousand which implies mint sets are the chief source of all unc moderns!
Even With the low mintages of mint sets they can be deceptive since spoilage rates can be spectacular. Sets like the mid-'70's Japanese sets will have a virtually 100% spoilage rate. ie- almost every set not disassembled and the coins stabilized will have very few pristine coins surviving. This wouldn't be an issue except that there are so few collectors actually assembling collections leaving most of the coins in ruined sets.
Russian sets are far better but still most of the well stored sets have two or three bad coins and some nice coins survive even in poorly stored sets. The real problem with Soviet coins is no one even thought of collecting them until five years after the circulating coins were melted. To say high grade circulation issues from the '60's and '70's are very elusive is an understatement. When I tried to acquire such coins from Russian sources in the '80's they thought I was nuts and everyone said they were unavailable except a few AU's and XF's in circulation. They had no incentive to search for them at the prices I could offer.
Indian sets are fairly well packaged but many have been broken up to sell at very low prices making their preservation less likely. Some of the Chinese coins are very scarce here but apparently more common in other countries.
Collectors will make almost all the money in moderns because they'll know the rarities from those available in bulk. There are so many millions of coins available in large quantities that these will be the ones that speculators stash for the future. This tendency for real collectors to do better will be far more pronounced in moderns than the older coins because right now nobody knows the difference. I can't really tell them apart either and only know what I see here in the US and a few select countries. Even these select countries though might have millions of their coins in Britain or the Sudan for all I know.
But as more people collect post-WW II coins there will be ever growing numbers discovered to be scarce or rare. And there are all even very common coins that are rare in Gem because the coins were poorly made.