2020 In Gold We Trust Report released
derryb
Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
The Dawning of a Golden Decade, 14th edition
Key Takeaways:
- Monetary policy normalization has failed
- The coronavirus is the accelerant of the overdue recession
- Debt-bearing capacity is reaching its limits
- Central banks are in a quandary when it comes to combating inflation in the future
- Dawn of a new monetary world order
- New gold all-time highs are only a matter of time
Confirmation on what those paying attention have been preaching for the past decade.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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Comments
I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for the apocalypse. They can (and will) print to infinity.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Interesting....Thanks for the link.....And, of course, predictions are meaningless - until they come true.
Cheers, RickO
14th edition??!!
How many dawnings are there?
Lol
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Depends on how many of you are still asleep. Knew I could wake you up.
fourteen years of publication, special title this year to welcome in the new "decade of dollar destruction" that you sleepy heads have been refusing to acknowledge for the past decade.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
A detailed understanding of the fundamentals, as discussed in the report, leads to more accurate predictions.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb .... Indeed....Empirical knowledge lays the groundwork for intelligent projections...Cheers, RickO
And good many did cuz the dollar wasnt destroyed over the last decade. Every asset performed well over the last decade, except precious metals. You really need to review who refused to acknowledge what.
Maybe it will get better for the PM (especially silver) bugs now...its been a long suffering.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
LOL. Actually the dollar wasn't destroyed over the last century. But somehow it sure lost, and rapidly continues to lose, a lot of purchasing power. As an asset it has performed poorly for those who hold it, just askthe savers.
I guess you would call this a "strong dollar policy."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Is this like economists who win Nobel prizes for predicting 12 of the last 2 recessions?
You forgot to mention how PMs lost their purchasing power over the last decade... real estate and equities were the place to be.
Maybe youll finally be right someday.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I've always been right about you. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Printing to infinity IS the "apocalypse".
Real Estate is not, and has not been, a good investment the past decade (with some exceptions in certain locations, doing renovations to increase the value via hard work, and the necessity of having a place to live).
The EXCESSIVE real estate taxes are the killer. By the time you pay those, and the upkeep, and the realtor's commissions when you sell, there is not much gain to be had, even in a supposedly "rising" real estate market.
With more people working from home, there will be a glut of commercial office space. And if mortgage rates rise, even just a little bit, look out.
Darn guys
Gold price analysis for March 2020: not a safe haven anymore
"Today, we continue to see massive volatility across all the financial markets with US stocks suffering their third-worst ever drop, major stock market indices – the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and FTSE 100 – plunging to their record lows, crude oil prices hitting below $30 a barrel for the first time since 2016."
"Traditionally, in times of trouble gold tends to go up. However, at the start of this week we have witnessed an unprecedented picture of a hundred-dollar swing in gold price during 14 hours. Gold’s mini-crash started from $1,703 on March 7, which is gold’s best level in seven years, down to its three-month low of $1,469 on March 16, which is its worst level since mid-December."
I should have listened to the fancy article on the internets. Now here I am holding after buying into the two biggest dips in the past 6 months, listening to the government tell me how safe my money is in banks.
I'd like to hope the unemployment I don't need kicks in soon so I can buy gold with free government money.
I'd also like to hope it helps balance out all the wasted $200/hr away from my business for health care I could hardly ever use.
That is the key thing to consider going forward. As State/Local deficits mount, taxes will increase. Of all the taxes you can control/minimize - real estate taxes are the most difficult. You cannot keep a house under your mattress or a building lot in a SDB. A house is known and immovable, so the perfect asset to tax. A government can tax the purchase - the ownership - the improvement and the sale. Can't pay - they will happily take it off your hands and sell it to someone who can.
Wash Rinse Repeat...
'
Forget "the accelerant of the overdue recession." This is now a depression when all the sectors combined are considered. Some like Tech and On-line Retail are bucking it though. The "Bookstore" is still leading the way....lol. Done quite well since one of our pundits wrote it off in 2013 at $260/share as way over-valued. And that was 3 yrs into a 10 year break out pattern. Some just don't understand the basic principles of the very charts they preach about.....no matter how many "drawings" they might post. Classic example of not seeing a massive Elliot Wave 3 of 3 of 5 when staring you in the face. Amazon is now 10X higher than that point. Nice "bookstore" don't you think?
Home prices in my region are still about 20% below the 2007/2008 peaks. They've lost their "purchasing power" over the last decade....not gold. Gold is about 70% higher in that time. Pretty cut and dry. Even in the stronger residential housing markets around the country, I'd say gold has held up quite well in comparison. Real Estate as a whole around the country peaked in 2007 on Armstrong's 52 year rising model. It's now in the 26 yr declining portion of that model (into 2033). It will be a rocky ride for many. Gold vs. RE? I know which I'd prefer into that window. Selected RE is those regions that are still growing will do ok....the majority of the country will not.
I see 8 charts/drawings in the original article in the original post. Is that too few for "some?"
Well, as youve said, perception is fact. Lol
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Sone if you folk must live in crappy areas. Sorry you havent benefitted from the the massive real estate boom. Then again, i suppose you are accustomed to misery.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Accustomed only to the misery you sow.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Doomsday bunkers have not appreciated in value as much as what the conspiracy crew had been hoping for.
Hoarding silver waiting for the world to end certainly is a miserable place to be. I know, I used to be "that" guy. lol
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
You have mastered the art of projection.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yeah, terrible investment over the past decade. Dang
thats funny!!
This sounds like whining. Especially when considering CO has dang
near the lowest RE taxes in the nation.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The banking system is decidedly not your friend.
I knew it would happen.
Your chart shows only the gain in sale prices. It does not include the unique expenses and personal effort, that dcarr attempted to remind you of, that are required to reach those prices. A chart on the net gain on real estate would not be so sexy. As usual you present just a part of the story to support you narrow view. If it's a view you agree with bring in the sexy chart or data. If it's a view you do not agree with discredit the source when you cannot discredit the data. Your MO is getting old.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Oh no. I would have only made 40% instead of 50%. Woe is me.
Lol
Still outperformed gold and silver.
Darn that taxman,how dare he take from me to support education and emergency and other civil services.
Woe is me.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You May Never See “Normal” Again
"The biggest problem with the lockdown was that everyone counted the benefits but no one calculated the costs. In short, the lockdown may end up costing more lives than were saved. That’s on top of trillions of dollars of lost wealth and lost economic output. That’s what happens when you put doctors in charge of the economy. Next time, it might be a good idea to let a few economic analysts into the room also."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
So, you're saying that since taxes (one expense of owning an asset) may be used for the good of society, the expense should be disregarded when comparing the performance of assets. This BS might be acceptable if the tax expense were the same for all assets, but as shown with real estate, some assets have a higher tax expense than others. Read up on "net gain" and then get back with me.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Are you grumpy derrydoom because PMs dont throw off income like equities or real estate? Are you grumpy because collectibles have a higher tax rate? Are you grumpy because tax laws do not benefit PMs in the way they do equities or real estate?
Real estate taxes in most areas range between 0.50% to 2.0% and can be deducted thus lowering the effective rate. And realtors commissions at 6% or less, is a heck of a lot lower than the commissions on Ebay or the insane buy-sell spreads on PMs.
So yeah, start comparing performance. And pick a better topic to troll.
BTW---the way things are going, silver stackers may never have to worry about taxes. Lol
Dang i wish silver would go up.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Don't forget real estate transfer taxes, title insurance, closing fees, mortgage fees, etc. Then the cost of maintenance, insurance, utilities, etc. You can't simply look at increase in your home and think that is your gain - even after 'writing-off' your taxes and interest, which is not the deal some think. With the new tax law and the SALT cap, that benefit is reduced even more.
and remember - you have to live somewhere - so rather difficult (and expensive) to take a profit
He's just trying to change the subject. He does that when he gets beat down.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Yes...the cost to live somewhere. What a burden. Haha.
And you still think real estate is a worse investment than PMs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I don't believe anyone said it was a worse investment. They did say it wasn't the great investment you claim it to be because of the associated costs of acquiring, holding and disposing of it, something your sexy sale price chart neglected to portray.
Besides didn't you say PMs were not an investment, that they were in fact an insurance policy? lol
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Nope.
But you do. So are you laughing at yourself?
Dont forget to include the cost of your safe, or your handgun, or ammo, or dog food, or vet bills, or electric bill in the cost of your "no cost" stack.
Dude, just accept the facts. Silver is the same price as 6 years ago and real estate is higher. And equities are much higher.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Fact is, my gains on silver trading, both paper (ETF derivatives and mining stocks) and physical over the past ten years are much greater than the appreciation of real estate and equities over those same ten years. During that time I shared some of those trades on the forum for those also looking to profit from the volatility. I have repeatedly talked of silver's volatility and how it can be used to profit and to grow a stack. Dude, just accept the fact that you failed (and apparently still do) to realize that one can profit on a volatile commodity, even if price ends up right where it was six years ago. Your buy and hold mentality is so Old School. You could have made so much more profit and stacked a lot of metal had you outgrown it. My gain is truly your loss.
No matter how many times you say the price of silver is where it was six years ago, it is not going to erase my gains or those you could have made had you not been so narrow minded.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Golly derryb, all that time and effort trading silver, handling it and packaging and mailing and storing it and thinking about it and writing so many posts... sounds a lot like work.. sounds like a job.
Yes, I suppose we could have made our money the same way you made yours, if we'd wanted to spend our precious life energy in such a manner.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
being lazy cost you some profits.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Welcome back dude. I missed your inputs.
yes, welcome back. Trifecta!
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Edit---nah...not worth it. Too easy.
And welcome back Baley. I hope the quarantine at bug out camp was relaxing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
tax laws do not benefit PMs in the way they do equities or real estate
Isn't social engineering great? Fact is, that equities & real estate have big lobbies in Congress; gold & silver do not.
Que sera, sera. The question is, who do you trust - gov.com & Wall Street - or yourself?
I knew it would happen.
Thanks! It's been an interesting couple of months, no doubt.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Yourself of course. But use Wall street like an Exgirlfriend on rebound.
A lot of what you post sounds like whining ... or boasting.
Here in Colorado we own a 35-acre parcel that is outside of city limits. It has no improvements of any kind on it. Access is via a jeep trail, and it is zoned for agricultural use (one portion of it was used for hay). The property taxes on it were $25 per year. But then the next year it suddenly jumped to $6,300 per year. Every vacant land owner in the county got hit similarly hard. And the best access route to our property was blocked by a large swath of land that the county and city bought and turned into a "natural area". Earlier this year three neighboring 35-acre parcels were put up for sale (and none have sold).
If you own property, you are at the mercy of the county to not ream you on taxes and/or declare eminent domain on it, and/or infringe upon your ability to use the property in some way.
Real estate taxes on residential property in Colorado are somewhat reasonable because of a law past years ago called "TABOR" (taxpayer bill of rights). TABOR effectively caps the amount that counties can charge in real estate taxes on residential property. The cap does not extend to property beyond actual residential. The current state governor and legislature desperately want to do away with TABOR. They successfully got it on the ballot for people to vote it away. Fortunately, the voters did not approve the removal of TABOR, but the vote was close. I wouldn't put it past the governor and state house to try again in some sneaky fashion. So there is always a danger that TABOR will go away and homeowners will take a big hit.
Recently I was driving around the town of Fort Collins Colorado. This has been a strong and diverse region economically for some time. I couldn't help but notice, however, that a lot of "For Lease" signs have popped up in front of commercial office and retail properties recently. This does not look good. How long can the owners of those buildings continue to service their debts without the rental income coming in ? If they can no longer pay the property taxes, the county will have to cut back significantly on spending, which reinforces the downward spiral.
There is a nice commercial building near me that is a former bank. It has about 8,500 square feet. I thought it would make a neat place to live and operate a business out of. The asking price was initially 2 million but a while ago it was dropped way down to 1.25 million. When I looked up the property taxes and found that they were $37,000 per year on that building I decided my idea was not economically viable. And it would be even less so now. The price of the building would have to drop some more, and the taxes would have to drop a lot, to make it viable. For now, the building is still offered for sale and is empty.
Personally, I don't care about what assets did what during the past year, 6.7 years, 10 years, whatever. All I care about is where things are going, from here forward. And they don't seem to be headed in a positive direction for commercial real estate. And that is a major problem for the economy.
I hope it works as well as the Weimar fiasco.
ONLY income real estate is an ....investment.
Your house is an expense.
Yeah....like food.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
and boats.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
and sugar plum trees!
Ya got to buy them, sure, but that's just the beginning! You don't stack plum trees in your lockbox, like you're an old man and you're hoarding bags of prunes because you read online that the sun is going dark someday!
No, you work to dig a hole and then plant the tree. Then water and fertilize and trim it and keep the bugs and birds off, harvest some sweet sugar plums occasionally and bake treats for your neighbors and let it grow for years...
But then my friends then! Someday you have a mature plum tree that rains a riches of sweet fresh sugar plums down on you the rest of your life!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
And doomsday bunkers.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
And trolls.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey