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This too shall pass or real deal pain coming?
carew4me
Posts: 3,464 ✭✭✭✭
China economy is on the verge of worse than the short term tanking we are seeing (do you really think they are "turning the corner" on Corona?)
No one knows what impact on global trade of the growing number of countries stressing isolation from public gathering of their populace. In China that has meant closed factories, no vacations etc.
In 60 days what if it really is Bernie and his 85 trillion policy cost giveaway?
I don't think this time is typical of taking a world event (NK missle launch etc) and trying to use it to sell PM bumps.
What say you? Chill out or Load up?
Loves me some shiny!
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the first black swan thread was closed.
I'll admit we are on the verge of a black swan event.
PMs are not taking enough notice for me though. I'd have though we'd be up another $25 today.
load up or chill out? I'm not loading up. I'm waiting to sell. I'm going to guess the hold back on PMs is other people waiting to sell too.
Sell PM's while the going is hot. Normalcy will return....Maybe even sooner than you think. That's my take
Just imagine renegotiating your contract on labor it’s always against the CYN
Gain or loss on exchange is usually paid on the US side it’ll be interesting to see if that’s changed with our new trade agreement
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
I think there will be enough of an impact on earnings, PE ratios and tax shortfalls that we will come to a crossroads with this little debt thing we seem to have going in practically every facet of finance.
Whether the new numbers represent a new normal, a new paradigm - a new way of assessing the time value of money and planning for the future - is anybody's guess.
I'm in the camp that says something's got to give, and that it will.
I knew it would happen.
If price discovery is allowed, the S&P500 should settle in right around 1,800. Gold and silver will do just fine once margin calls are met. Negative interest rates will probably reach the US within the next couple years, so PMs will look even better. Cryptocurrency tulip bloom should also end soon....provides only minimal utility, and false scarcity. Look at how poorly bitcoin has done the past couple days.
The spread on premiums keeps growing as the market fluctuates more. Does anyone see enough movement to justify selling physical, hoping to buy in and gain something?
I feel comfortable slowly buying under $20. Long term I calculate very little difference between $17 and low $20s. I do not want to see silver below $17 again. It looks like it will be below $18 again very soon.
For my budget, the only way for me to own ounces of gold is for the gold-to-silver ratio to drop significantly, then leverage silver for gold.
no with a limited budget if you don't have any gold now its too late.
It will pass, but it will leave a path of destruction in its wake. Do we have another 2008/9 on our hands? Beats me. While the risk of Americans contracting the virus is low, the fallout from it is what concerns me.
MY GOLD TYPE SET https://pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/complete-type-sets/gold-type-set-12-piece-circulation-strikes-1839-1933/publishedset/321940
well CDC is not holding back:
Published: Feb 25, 2020 4:36 p.m. ET
*CDC official says the quick spread of the coronavirus in Iran, Italy and South Korea have ‘raised our level of concern’
*“The data over the last week and the spread in other countries has certainly raised our level of concern and raised our level of expectation that we are going to have community spread here(US). ... That’s why we are asking folks in every sector as well as within their families to start planning for this.”
if Corona Recession...more QE?
Loves me some shiny!
The markets need to hear some good news - a decline in new cases. Unfortunately, I believe this will be officially classified as a pandemic very soon. This will create a greater sell-off. Gonna be quite turbulent for a while.
MY GOLD TYPE SET https://pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/complete-type-sets/gold-type-set-12-piece-circulation-strikes-1839-1933/publishedset/321940
Fortunate for me the market doesn't mean much and a great sell off would just be another day. Real assets are a beautiful thing.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Not if they are also in a free fall. Seen it before, with similar results.
We are at Stage 2 in this country. 1/10 of the world's population is Stage 5 & Martial Law in China.
No. Italy has 10 cities quarantined. Limited movement in Italy.
San Francisco has declared an emergency. I can't help but think Los Angeles might be next.(IMO it's a bigger problem waiting to happen)
The disease has a fatality rate of between 2%-10% depending on which statistics you choose to believe. A bigger problem might be the contagion factor. With ONE million hospital beds in this country, our health care system could be maxed out quickly. It's a sneaky virus. You could be carrying it for weeks and not know it.
Years ago I read a book ENDURANCE. Sir Ernest Shackleton brought 28 guys back to civilization after a year and a half on the ice. As they were struggling to survive, they realized their gold coins did them no good & they pitched them.
After they were rescued, I bet they wished they still had their gold coins.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
San Fran knows what comes their way.
Fun fact: Beware people who get their news and political opinions from Twitter.
--Severian the Lame
Every LEO that I know in southern California takes their shoes off before they enter their home. Because they are 'stepping in it'.
With the amount of travel between SoCal & mainland China, it's just a matter of time.
If the virus invades the homeless population in California then we have a huge problem. It's nearly impossible to enforce the law with that group. Just a matter of time. When, not if.
It seems likely the virus will hit our shores, possibly unchecked, within the next 60 days. As @streeter said above, the poor and those with weakened immune systems (older people, homeless, addicts, etc) will be hit the hardest.
If the epidemic spreads rapidly and doesn't subside quickly, the service industry will be hit hardest. Movie theaters, restaurants, bars, airlines, hotels. The general economy will suffer a light recession at best. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow fall below 24,000. If the virus lingers and new treatments don't become available and the eventual vaccine takes more than a year, it could be substantially worse.
On the other hand, I think it will also become clear that while the virus spreads rapidly and easily, it isn't especially dangerous to healthy people. Reports of survivors are not as glamorous and exciting as quarantine tents and hazmat suits. But it seems most people recover relatively quickly. And that many people who are infected never show any significant symptoms at all. Thankfully, and for unknown reasons, children seem to be impacted the least.
I'm not selling any PMs now. I will consider selling silver if it goes above $30 but that seems unlikely. Not selling gold for the foreseeable future regardless of price.
Money where my mouth is: I sold 10% of equities about 10 days ago. Figured taking recent gains in cash and taking money off the table was worth the risk of any gains over the next few months. I can always throw the cash back in if I'm wrong.
FWIW: I also just made offers on $750k worth of real estate yesterday. There will be pain for the next year, but I'm not stopping long range plans.
And I saw the writing on the wall nearly 2 months ago, when I started researching the virus and eventually ordered a couple of cases of n95 NIOSH approved face masks from a legit medical supply company. If you stack PMs, how do you not do this kind of thing? It's all about insurance, right? PMs are insurance for uncertainty. Insurance: We all have our flu shots, we don't smoke, we wash hands during flu season and keep a bottle of alcohol based hand sanitizer in the car. We eat right, try to get enough sleep, and exercise 5 times a week. If I'm wrong, what have I lost? Insurance.
--Severian the Lame
Attumra
You just have to know the Weiss reputation. CNN is right wing to him. Logic is not his game. 👺🙉
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The word your is the possessive form of the pronoun you and is used as as a second-person possessive adjective meaning “of or relating to you or yourself or yourselves especially as possessor or possessors.” Since it is a possessive adjective, it is always followed by a noun or a gerund, which belongs to or are associated with you.
The term you’re is simply a contraction of the words you and are with an apostrophe in the middle representing the missing letter “a”. Other examples of contractions are wouldn’t for would not, aren’t for are not, and can’t for cannot.
--Severian the Lame
I'm rubber you're glue.
--Severian the Lame
I do not panic.... I observe, orient, decide then act (The OODA loop)...Preliminary observations indicate mild preparations regarding travel and crowds....Hold PM's, conservative moves in financial holdings. Long term plans still hold...Cheers, RickO
I have travel to central america next month. I'm fully expecting screening when we get there and leave.
Some coworkers from Europe, Philippines, and Costa Rica will be here in a week, will be interesting to hear their thoughts on this and how their travel goes.
SF declares an emergency with zero declared cases, but SF can't seem to figure out that publishing street maps for piles of ____ and hiring poop scoopers doesn't address the problem. Zero declared cases of coronavirus in SF at this moment.
So, where's the emergency?
I knew it would happen.
Politics or personal attacks will get the thread removed. Then we won't be able to watch the bonfire that is the Silver market burn together.
Loves me some shiny!
silver and palladium
dont be like bronco wearing the jail bars for weeks!
Or like glick
brutal rout on palladium from last night to today
SF is well aware of what the real issue(s) are, but they don't care about that or else they would have been addressed years ago. SF declared an emergency to get state and federal funding that will be squandered or pocketed by their politicans.
I spent a week in San Fran last year and it was a complete nightmare. I thought the media was over-hyping the issues of addiction, homeless and mentally ill and I was completely wrong. Junkies and homeless EVERYWHERE. Residents seemed to not care at all, not sure if that is due to the normalization of this or if they just ignore it. There was a very apparent bifurcation out there where you are either well off and ignore "the problem" or are destitute living in the doorway of a multi-million dollar property. Here are some of the real outbreaks they should be focusing on:
https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-hepatitis-outbreaks-20171006-htmlstory.html
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/03/typhus-tuberculosis-medieval-diseases-spreading-homeless/584380/
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01239-x
we need to try to keep on the black swan of covid-19 and its effect on PM prices.
the other one "went off the rails" as the modulator said.