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A Downside To The 2019-S Enhanced Reverse Proof Silver Eagle?

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  • BackroadJunkieBackroadJunkie Posts: 3,745 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @Overdate said:

    @wondercoin said:
    Overdate... yes and no.

    manufactured rarity if you look at it from a socioeconomic perspective perhaps.

    That is far different than the vast majority of buyers not being able to even get their orders through at the Mint who wanted a coin. And the mint producing too few on purpose for whatever reason they decided to do that.

    Just my 2 cents.

    Wondercoin

    I'm looking at the 1995-W as a "manufactured rarity" from the perspective of a collector who was present for both occasions. The announced limit of 45,000 coins, far below the mintage of any other proofs, automatically put the 1995-W in that category. The Mint produced "too few on purpose" back then also, as there was known existing demand for several hundred thousand proofs for each date/mintmark. The average collector was shut out both times, the first because of affordability and the second because of the way orders were processed.

    If the Mint, instead, had included the 2019-S ERP in this year's gold eagle proof set (current price $3,385) with an announced mintage limit of 30,000, it would not have sold out nearly as fast, and might not have sold out at all. And the coin would still have been out of reach for the average silver eagle collector.

    If you look at the mintages relative to the baseline proof sales in 1995, the 30,000 mintage is relatively higher than the 45,000 max in 1995.

    You knew I'd have to actually look at the numbers, right? :wink:

    They are actually selling fewer W-Mint ASE's now than they did P-Mint ASE's back in the 90's. I'm going to assume that's because the S-Mint (Proof) eats into main ASE proof sales. ($23 vs. $56 might have something to do with it too.)

    Assuming baseline today are the W and S-Mint proof ASE's, then in 2017, there were 515K proofs sold (390K W-Mint, 125K S-Mint) and in 2018 they sold 580K proofs. (380K W-Mint and 200K S-mint.) 2019 looks to be similar.

    They sold 408K P-Mint proofs in 1995.

    If we use 2018 as a "baseline" (since 2017 S-Mint ASE's were limited by mintage), the 30K S-Mint ERP is 5.2% of the mintage of the regular proof ASE's. (7.8% compared only to W-Mint ASE's.)

    45K of 408K is 11% of the mintage of the P-Mint proofs. 31.1K of 408K is 7.6%.

    Either way, if we assume (there's that word) the dedicated ASE collectors is a consistent percentage of the mintage, the 30K 2019-S ERP is the more desired coin.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,219 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BackroadJunkie said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @Overdate said:

    @wondercoin said:
    Overdate... yes and no.

    manufactured rarity if you look at it from a socioeconomic perspective perhaps.

    That is far different than the vast majority of buyers not being able to even get their orders through at the Mint who wanted a coin. And the mint producing too few on purpose for whatever reason they decided to do that.

    Just my 2 cents.

    Wondercoin

    I'm looking at the 1995-W as a "manufactured rarity" from the perspective of a collector who was present for both occasions. The announced limit of 45,000 coins, far below the mintage of any other proofs, automatically put the 1995-W in that category. The Mint produced "too few on purpose" back then also, as there was known existing demand for several hundred thousand proofs for each date/mintmark. The average collector was shut out both times, the first because of affordability and the second because of the way orders were processed.

    If the Mint, instead, had included the 2019-S ERP in this year's gold eagle proof set (current price $3,385) with an announced mintage limit of 30,000, it would not have sold out nearly as fast, and might not have sold out at all. And the coin would still have been out of reach for the average silver eagle collector.

    If you look at the mintages relative to the baseline proof sales in 1995, the 30,000 mintage is relatively higher than the 45,000 max in 1995.

    You knew I'd have to actually look at the numbers, right? :wink:

    They are actually selling fewer W-Mint ASE's now than they did P-Mint ASE's back in the 90's. I'm going to assume that's because the S-Mint (Proof) eats into main ASE proof sales. ($23 vs. $56 might have something to do with it too.)

    Assuming baseline today are the W and S-Mint proof ASE's, then in 2017, there were 515K proofs sold (390K W-Mint, 125K S-Mint) and in 2018 they sold 580K proofs. (380K W-Mint and 200K S-mint.) 2019 looks to be similar.

    They sold 408K P-Mint proofs in 1995.

    If we use 2018 as a "baseline" (since 2017 S-Mint ASE's were limited by mintage), the 30K S-Mint ERP is 5.2% of the mintage of the regular proof ASE's. (7.8% compared only to W-Mint ASE's.)

    45K of 408K is 11% of the mintage of the P-Mint proofs. 31.1K of 408K is 7.6%.

    Either way, if we assume (there's that word) the dedicated ASE collectors is a consistent percentage of the mintage, the 30K 2019-S ERP is the more desired coin.

    I wasn't thinking strictly of the ASE proofs. I misunderstood what you were saying. I thought you were talking about all collector proofs. The number of U.S. Mint customers has dropped from over 2 million to about half a million in the last 15 to 20 years.

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:
    I wasn't thinking strictly of the ASE proofs. I misunderstood what you were saying. I thought you were talking about all collector proofs. The number of U.S. Mint customers has dropped from over 2 million to about half a million in the last 15 to 20 years.

    I bought proof and mint sets every year from 1964 to about 1990. Once the mint started selling commems again, I bought those, too- at least, for a while. I tried to keep up but the cost of doing so was surpassing my interest in maintaining A Complete Set and I eventually stopped buying/collecting mint issues altogether. I suspect I'm not the only one who followed that path.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,219 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MasonG said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    I wasn't thinking strictly of the ASE proofs. I misunderstood what you were saying. I thought you were talking about all collector proofs. The number of U.S. Mint customers has dropped from over 2 million to about half a million in the last 15 to 20 years.

    I bought proof and mint sets every year from 1964 to about 1990. Once the mint started selling commems again, I bought those, too- at least, for a while. I tried to keep up but the cost of doing so was surpassing my interest in maintaining A Complete Set and I eventually stopped buying/collecting mint issues altogether. I suspect I'm not the only one who followed that path.

    no. Lots of people got off the train. And some of them passed away.

  • Insider2Insider2 Posts: 14,452 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MilesWaits said: "Hey, if you want to see your single post thread disappear quickly, just post an inappropriate question about the ATS grading company. C’mon, now."

    That question does not belong on a CU forum. The guy has a finger. Call the ATS. If you want to ask questions or debate TPGS without fear, there are other options.

  • batumibatumi Posts: 818 ✭✭✭✭

    @amwldcoin said:
    I think it's tit for tat comparing the small difference in mintages of the 95-W and 19-S RP. The only thing that would make me think it would reduce the price of the 95-W is if quite a few who want a complete set quit because they don't want to have to buy another high dollar Silver Eagle.

    Edit to add.....there will probably always be more 19-S's available to silver Eagle collectors than 95-W's due to the 95-W's that remain entombed in the original sets with the gold.

    I just looked at one in a no reserve auction-a 70 'first strike'. with a few days along with several bidders, it already has reached $3600.00! Even though I have a complete set in PR 70, I guess I will drop out on this one and buy a few gold eagles or buffaloes instead with that kind of 'coin'!

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,989 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 25, 2019 3:27PM

    Have patience if you did not get one. The very few that are actually buying these at over $3,000 in 70 grade will see how this all works in a couple months.

    Now a new registry set of CAC certified and slabbed and signed paper COA's, well that is a special set worthy of a separate forum.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,571 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @steveben said:
    my opinion is that the 95-W will remain queen. there are going to be a lot more 70s of the 2019-S. now is a good time to buy a 95-W.

    The 95-W should remain the "key" date. First, the mintage difference is only 125 and it's reasonably possible that somewhat more than that are ;lost, somewhere. Second, not all ASE collectors attempt to buy these special finish coins. I suspect it's a noticeable proportion of the collector base who don't.

    As for it being a good time to buy the 95-W, I doubt it. I was looking at prices on Heritage yesterday and the 69's sell for about the same as in 2004. The 70's have very strong demand considering the huge population increase (certainly no duplicates here) but have still lost noticeable value. Concurrently, it is (and has been) one of the most overpriced coins in the world, as a collectible.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,571 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Bochiman said:

    @DelawareDoons said:
    My hot take; Injecting hundreds of thousands of dollars of liquidity into the hobby is not a bad thing. People sitting on a bakers dozen examples of a key date, though?

    It's not necessarily "injecting hundreds of thousands of dollars of liquidity INTO the hobby". I haven't seen proof of that yet.
    What it MAY be doing is to MOVE AROUND hundreds of thousands of dollars already in the hobby.

    So, if someone has $1000 to spend on numismatics (the hobby) and they purchase, after release, 2 of these, then that is $1000 that they may have already decided to spend on the hobby....maybe on other moderns or on classics. Now, that $1000 isn't spent on a seated dollar or some Indian Head Cents.....

    Like I said, I haven't seen any proof that NEW money is being injected into the hobby

    Given all the accounts of falling prices of "collector" US coinage since at least 2008, this is what I understand is happening. There is little incremental funding coming into the hobby from new US Mint products. Most of it just draws funding away that used to go elsewhere. Same applies with world NCLT which with US collectors, is presumably mostly being bought at the expense of lower priced US classics which collectors predominantly bought a generation or two ago.

  • morgansforevermorgansforever Posts: 8,461 ✭✭✭✭✭

    One downside could be many new collectors/flippers don't even realize, all this wouldn't be possible if Reagen hadn't signed the Liberty Coin Act into law.

    World coins FSHO Hundreds of successful BST transactions U.S. coins FSHO
  • DelawareDoonsDelawareDoons Posts: 3,413 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Another friend of mine pulled the trigger yesterday, reaped $1800 in profits from selling a pair, turned around, and bought a gorgeous proof barber quarter with the proceeds.

    I will repeat it. When events like these occur, they inject hundreds of thousands of dollars into the coin markets.

    "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,219 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DelawareDoons said:
    Another friend of mine pulled the trigger yesterday, reaped $1800 in profits from selling a pair, turned around, and bought a gorgeous proof barber quarter with the proceeds.

    I will repeat it. When events like these occur, they inject hundreds of thousands of dollars into the coin markets.

    You are not looking at the whole picture. The $2000 your friend got from selling the pair is NOT (necessarily) new money in the coin markets. Presumably, the money came from coin collectors who are now NOT spending that money on some other coin.

    You are only injecting new money into the coin markets if that money would NOT have otherwise been used to buy coins. That only happens if: 1) existing coin collectors decide to increase their coin budget or 2) you have new collectors dragged into the market.

    Your anecdote does not conclusively show even 1 cent being put into the coin market. In fact, it could show money LEAVING the coin market. If your friends buyers used a credit card and end up paying interest on the card and purchase, then that is money leaving the coin market to go to the credit card company. Obviously, that may not have happened, but I only point it out to illustrate that the true picture of money flows in the market must consider many more parameters than the individual profit of one person. Especially when that profit came from money received from another coin collector.

    If the excitement around this coin encourages new collectors or encourages existing collectors to buy more, then you are correct. If this coin is simply moving around money within a closed numismatic ecosystem, then there is NO money injected into the system. If this coin causes collectors to quit the hobby in disgust, then there is money LEAVING the hobby. Looking at one transaction will not tell you anything about the situation.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,219 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @morgansforever said:
    One downside could be many new collectors/flippers don't even realize, all this wouldn't be possible if Reagen hadn't signed the Liberty Coin Act into law.

    I'm not seeing why this is a downside????

  • VpdVpd Posts: 47 ✭✭

    As a long term collector of this and other US Mint issues, I remain pissed at Ryder’s decision to pump out only 30,000 of these. Having said this, I’ll spend the money to get this coin because it is the only one I don’t have in my collection. So the question for me is will having to pay an absorbent price for this coin enhance my desire to continue the series or help to kill it the next time an artificial key is produced.

    Some seem to believe that this coin has added excitement to the series. I wonder if that short time excitement will create new collectors of the series.

  • 92vette92vette Posts: 528 ✭✭✭

    The 25th anniversary sets were supposed to jump start interest, so was the 2015 plat proof, the reverse proof buffalo, etc.

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