A Downside To The 2019-S Enhanced Reverse Proof Silver Eagle?
wondercoin
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For the past (24) years, the 1995-W Silver Eagle was the “King”. Prices were established over that lengthy period of time. It appears to me that lovely, high end 69 grade examples of this 95-W coin (as very few are 70 quality) have already corrected downward by nearly 15%-20%. The loss of money to those collectors, dealers and investors sitting on those 30,000+ 1995-W coins is almost equal to the gains made already by the buyers of the 2019-S coins! In my personal case, I probably have a bakers dozen, give or take, of 95-W coins. And, at the beginning of this year, I wasn’t really concerned about owning that position of the King of such a great series of coins. Maybe I had $50,000 tied up in 69 quality coins of the 95-W. I figure my position has probably lost around $10,000 already with the introduction of this 2019-S coin. Do the math on how much has been likely lost through the release of the 2019-S on all 30,000+ 95-W coins owned by collectors, etc. - not only on my tiny position.
One truly has to wonder what the Mint was thinking when it decided to create the lowest mintage silver eagle and sell it for $66 when comparable 95-W Mintage coins of 24 years ago were, at the time, worth deep into the $3,000s range of value (not any more). No thought at all for those collectors holding 95-W coins? And, with such disregard for the 95-W collector base, what will happen to the 2019-S coins if the Mint ever decides to offer a Silver Eagle with a 28,000-29,000 Mintage in the years ahead? As a true collector of 95-W silver eagle coins (including a 70 grade example in my #1 PCGS Registry set of Top 100 Modern coins), I am truly so confused by the release of this 2019-S coin.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Comments
I guess we wait for the hype to fade but I think we have a new king. Long live the king hehe.
My life isn't going to be any better or worse with or without one.
How many of the 95-W coins have had their value diminished by spotting or other issues? What will be the same scourge for the 2019-S ERP? If I was going to have either one to grade and hold, I'd have it dipped first if it was still spot free.
We are in a period of price discovery. Any adjustments to the 95-W are also likely transient. There are not any more 95-W coins than there were a month ago. There are not any fewer ASE or modern collectors than there were a month ago. The only reason for a permanent change in price is if some of the pricing on the 95-W was not based on strictly supply/demand principles but on "status".
"Status" pricing does exist. It is a component of a lot of trophy coins. It MAY be part of the ASE pricing on the 95-W. But I'm not so sure. That is a 30+ year old continuing series with many fans and collectors. It is a coin with 30,125 in existence. It is not an 1804 dollar or a 1913 Liberty nickel. There is room for two semi-key coins.
If you think the Mint should preserve collector value, then you also have to think that the Mint should have melted all the GSA dollars. The Mint should determine the mintages of moderns based not on demand for the coins but on price stability or appreciation. That is not their mission.
Just my 3 cent nickel
The answer to your question is David Ryder.
You know, the same guy who put "rarity" W quarters into circulation.
This was all his show. I would expect to see something like this again.
Maybe maybe they do a 2020 - P with 25,000 Max production @ 1 Per HHL? Maybe Maybe not! But those that lost monies on the 95’s I am truly sorry. I own no 95’s in fact never even known much about the 95’s. Sorry about my shallow ignorance.
I did not start buying ASE Bullion till 2012 and moved into the grading in 2015 or there about. About the time I came here. I have learned so much thanks to all of you.
@BackroadJunkie Yes! I agree he will but it might be a different series. Also with the ASE reverse changing in 2021, the ASE set is now a nice tight little collectible series with two keys, semi keys and the 08/rev of 7 error..
When the Mint does nothing but churn out boring commemoratives in unlimited mintages, collectors complain that the Mint needs to do something to invigorate the hobby. When the Mint does something to shake things up, people complain that they are jerking around people already in the hobby.
Turns out we like boring and uninspiring.
Mitch good points, lets hope the US Mint does not turn into the Canadian mint and churn out tiny mintage's on many coins until everyone just forgets about coins altogether..
I never really have paid attention to values of my collection. I would presume that half my collection values have probably depreciated from what I paid for them. But I am merely a collector. When I die, most likely they will just be sold off anyway as no one else in my family collects. Ya can't take it with you!
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I quit collecting modern mint issues years ago because of the increasing number of offerings being made available. I certainly don't think there's anything wrong with collecting them if that's the sort of thing one is attracted to but the writing has been on the wall for a long time now. Expecting the mint to support the value of decades-old issues wasn't likely to end in anything but disappointment, IMO.
Why should the Mint care about protecting those sitting on multiple 95-W Eagles? Look at all the excitement and debate the release of the 19-S has generated.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I think it's tit for tat comparing the small difference in mintages of the 95-W and 19-S RP. The only thing that would make me think it would reduce the price of the 95-W is if quite a few who want a complete set quit because they don't want to have to buy another high dollar Silver Eagle.
Edit to add.....there will probably always be more 19-S's available to silver Eagle collectors than 95-W's due to the 95-W's that remain entombed in the original sets with the gold.
Don't get me wrong. I'm all in for all the low mintage coins during his reign, though my success with the W quarters has been abysmal. I pointed out very early in this adventure, that Ryder knew exactly what would happen when he decided to strike 30K ASE's.
I do think this coin has provided unlimited amusement, so far. (If you want even better stuff, you should go read some of the blogs where there's no hint of moderation.) I've just stayed out of all the "WHAT THE MINT MUST CHANGE" threads, because almost all of the suggestions are fallible.
Doesn't matter what you do, a low mintage/high demand coin like this is going to generate this sort of... discussion.
The 2017-S ASE Congats set, the Truman/Eisenhower C&C sets, the 2016 American Liberty medals...
(Actually, I do have a suggestion. The Mint should sell them all to me, and let me the the sole arbitrator of who gets to buy a coin! I'd be fair. Honest...
)
Exactly !!!
This is what I'm afraid of. As a collector who tries to complete various series including silver eagles, there may be future events like this where I miss out obtaining a low mintage coin whose secondary market value soars. If that happens, Ryder may be the person who finally drives me out of series collecting.
Love, hate or apathetic towards this reversed proof Eagle, I have never seen so many threads generated on a coin in my years on the forum.
That alone tells me this coin was a success. Time moves on.
Well, the difference between you and me, I'm planning on taking mine with me.
Yes, we are in a period of price discovery, and those periods can last ten to twenty years. This is normal for any New Numismatic novelty (I recognize the redundancy in that phrase).
Yes, there is a potential downside. For those who are purchasing in this immediate aftermarket, the potential downside is 20% to 90% of the aftermarket purchase price.
Marry in haste, repent at leisure.
Have you seen one with a Black Label Yet?
“Why should the Mint care about protecting those sitting on multiple 95-W Eagles? Look at all the excitement and debate the release of the 19-S has generated..
And, if this is truly the case, then they may also not care about “protecting” those sitting on multiple 2019-S coins. Consider the excitement and debate that a 25,000 mintage silver eagle will generate! And, so the solution is dealing and flipping “moderns”, but not paying up as a collector to collect them? I certainly hope not.
Wondercoin
My hot take; Injecting hundreds of thousands of dollars of liquidity into the hobby is not a bad thing. People sitting on a bakers dozen examples of a key date, though?
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Like a moth attracted to a flame I find myself reading the Reverse Proof Eagle threads. I wasn’t able to get 1 coin despite being logged on and ready to go. A success? Not in my opinion. The whole episode left a bad taste in my mouth especially when I read about people getting 5 or 10 or 22 coins.
I know that it’s time to move on. However, knowing something and doing it are separate things.
What about limited edition Disney lithographs? There are numerous collectibles that have multiple limited editions.
None of that is (or should be) the focus of the Mint. Besides, weren't values of the 95-W decreasing well before the release of the 19-S? Time will tell about the other part.
I agree with Miles, though. This release of this coin was certainly a successful one.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I seem to recall concerns about possible negative effects on the silver eagle market when the limited edition 95-W was released. And not just a few disgruntled mint customers over the issue.
FWIW...
What the mint should do is strike another 500 and randomly put them into rolls of current issue 2019 silver eagles.
My daughter enjoyed collecting "rare" Beanie Babies yet had an epiphany the day she realized TY was simply going to continue minting them by the truckloads- calling each one difficult to obtain. She stopped collecting (along with millions of others). I see the Mint doing exactly what TY did back in the late '90s.
peacockcoins
Big difference here is that the 95 was available for months (if you had $999 to buy the gold set), so anyone with the funds could have purchased one. The 19 was an immediate sellout. If folks in 95 knew that eagle would be a key more would have sold.
my opinion is that the 95-W will remain queen. there are going to be a lot more 70s of the 2019-S. now is a good time to buy a 95-W.
"And so the solution is dealing and flipping moderns". "I certainly hope not".
Isn't that what you do or did WC?
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
Did the 95-W do much damage to the previous low mintage Silver Eagle?
Also, the 95-W is a straight proof whereas the 19-S is an enhanced reverse proof. Would the straight proof have more demand than an esoteric finish?
By virtue of being an agency of the government, it has been quite clear to me that the Mint cares little of anything. I've been a customer of the Mint for decades, (as well as many others) who consistently get kicked to the curb when one of these low mintage programs unveils. One would like to think that those loyal customers who have spent tons of money on their various programs for decades would be given some sort of appreciation other than the usual "free shipping". Don't think that it is too much to ask. Maybe a "first right of refusal" for one lousy coin before the program is offered to the public would work wonders for customer relations. But , alas, that would mean a government agency actually giving a hoot about something other than their own self-perpetuation. Needless to say, I won't be holding my breath for any loyalty concessions coming from the US Mint.
"And so the solution is dealing and flipping moderns". "I certainly hope not".
Isn't that what you do or did WC?
To an extent, many here have dealt or flipped moderns (me included). But, I’ve also been a collector for almost (50) years. Which is why I never sold my PR70 95-W coin, but, instead added it to my collection. It is the only one I ever graded and I elected to keep it (large profit notwithstanding). That said, there is nothing wrong with dealing or flipping modern or classic coins. Especially, if the perceived risk is high that what you have in inventory or your personal collection will likely decrease in value over time. Wondercoin
And maybe not. How do you get to be a loyal customer if you can't buy the coins offered because the loyal customers who were there before you buy them all?
Meanwhile, some modern commemorative silver dollars are selling 1/3 of what the Lafayette dollar did and there’s no interest.
There’s a lot of potential downside to anything that explodes in price and demand like the 2019s. For reference, check out the initial public offerings on Wall Street that have laid a long-term egg over the past several years. Stock and coins are indeed two different things, but the economics of the 2019s and new stock issues are similar.
I don't collect these and have zero interest in them. BUT...….if I did I would not like being at the whim of the Mint being able to create rarities at their will.
i agree 100%. i am quoting you only to add my 2¢:
the whole 'flipper' distinction is lost on me. to me, 'flippers' include the entire population of people who buy anything with the intent to sell for a profit.
are we supposed to look down on those who aren't 'professionals,' or those who deal in moderns, for buying something at a low price and selling it high, by referring to them as 'flippers?'
my son started dealing coins at a young age. i remember us talking to a rather salty individual at a coin show once, who said something to my son like:
'so you just go around and find coins that under-priced and flip them for more?'
yeah, he buys and sells just like everyone else in here. rant over.
At that time the eagle program was a mere 9 years old. Who knew then what it would turn into?
Maybe the mint should sell preference points like many of the western states do for people who are unsuccessful in drawing big game hunting licenses. If you order, but get skunked you could opt to purchase a preference point. Or you cold just opt to purchase a PP. That way you would have an edge in the purchase of the next "hot" issue.
Alternatively they could hold a lottery whereby people register in advance and their names are selected by random draw.
The 1995 Eagle had the "W" mintmark and that alone is cool.
peacockcoins
I completely agree. I'm relatively new to this forum, but I've been collecting silver eagles for a while. I'm not close to a complete set, and currently only aspire to own a 95-w. That being said, the release of this coin seems to be a pretty big success because it isn't just the longtime collectors that have it. It is an opportunity for people to participate and maybe decide they could get a complete set.
I'm a collector, not an investor: the value of the coins is cool, but having a complete set is the motivation. That being said, the value of the whole set goes down if people don't decide to start collecting, and coin collecting continues it's slow demise.
All these discussions about what the mint will do moving forward we should know they won't do anything because do they care, no. Will people keep buying coins yes. Thus nothing will will change to the system. More bots will come and with such a vengeance it will make your head spin. The mint them selves said not bots orders processed that would only mean they didn't even know about all the other ways to script the systems they have. All we can do now is wait for the secondary market for those limited mintage prices to go down a lot.
How much of the perceived vs actual value is based upon the tpg registries?
The Mint risks creating a massive, speculative bubble that causes both speculators and long-time collectors to permanenly leave the field after the bubble pops. I saw something like this in the 1990s in the comic book industry as many publishers released all sorts of kooky variants to their books (hologram covers, bagged editions, glow-in-the-dark covers, heat sensitive covers, etc.) to create speculative demand for these "rare" editions. Prices went up rapidly due to massive spikes in new demand from newcoming speculators but also from long-time collectors who wanted full sets of the titles they collected.
The difference with the coins and comic books is that the comic books have a dimension of quality (quality of story, quality of artwork) that is not as much a factor in coins. During the comic book bubble of the 1990s, the publishers churned out low-quality books which caused long-time collectors to stop. When the bubble finally popped, many speculators got burned and left the field forever. The lousy stories and lousy artwork continued and many of the burned collectors eventually left.
Getting back to the Enhanced Reverse Proof Silver Eagle, this sure seems like a kooky variant with its sole purpose being the creation of speculative fervor. Personally, I find the regular proof ASE to be more attractive than the reverse proof ASE. From that perspective, the reverse proof kind of has a "low quality" aspect to me, at least in my opinion. If the Mint minted hundreds of thousands of these Enhanced Reverse Proof ASEs, how many long-time ASE collectors would begrudgingly buy the coins out of some sense of OCD to ensure their collections are complete?
That's the risk that the Mint is taking with some of its questionable, recent releases of coins. If long-time collectors leave (and many are starting to die of old age), all that will be left are speculators as I don't see a lot of younger people entering this hobby, most certainly not enough to replace retiring collectors.
That's the risk that the Mint is taking with some of its questionable, recent releases of coins. If long-time collectors leave (and many are starting to die of old age), all that will be left are speculators as I don't see a lot of younger people entering this hobby, most certainly not enough to replace retiring collectors.
That's a topic for coin collecting in general and has nothing to do with a quick sellout of a low mintage coin at the Mint.
If anything, the buzz and excitement generated by a release like this one is a positive thing for the hobby in general. How many times do people complain about all the lackluster offerings by the Mint? It's not like we see something like this even once per year, let alone on a regular basis.
Of course, for those unable to acquire the coin before it sold out, that may be tough to accept.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
It was actually a created coin by Diehl for the ASE's 10th anniversary.
We could get into the argument about what is an "anniversary" is again
, but it was the 10th year the coin was produced. (Probably because people just subtract instead of including 1986 itself.) The Mint has been wrong in every anniversary since. 
For all we know the Bots could be UKRANIAN,s Spy,s trying to make a killing a $1000.00 goes a long way over there!
If long-time collectors leave (and many are starting to die of old age), all that will be left are speculators as I don't see a lot of younger people entering this hobby, most certainly not enough to replace retiring collectors.
If you are right, then isn't the mint right to do anything possible to generate interest? If nobody picks up collecting, eventually this will all be academic