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Are vintage cards at a high in a price bubble?

I spoke to a couple of card dealers at the recent Long Beach show who thought ‘maybe’.....

So what do the experts here think?.....is it time for some major downward price corrections??

Comments

  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,171 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @SeattleSlammer said:
    I spoke to a couple of card dealers at the recent Long Beach show who thought ‘maybe’.....

    So what do the experts here think?.....is it time for some major downward price corrections??

    I would not call myself an expert.

    I would not say yes to a general "major" downward price correction. However the "business" might be losing a few of the super high end investors and those who assumed the TPG's never missed an altered card.

    It's not a great time right now and no one knows what the results of the altered card investigation will reveal (if anything).

    The hobby is fine and will survive.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • SeattleSlammerSeattleSlammer Posts: 9,953 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 15, 2019 3:14PM

    Thanks Joe.

    As an example: in 2014 I bought a nice PSA 1.5 ‘33 Goudey Ruth #53 for $1750. (like a dummy I later sold it)

    It appears today you can’t even sniff that card in a 1.5 for under $3k......

    Price practically doubles in five years?

  • ndleondleo Posts: 4,064 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It depends whether this "belief" translates into action. If there isn't a rush to sell collections, then prices may stagnate for a while until people feel comfortable buying again.

    The people in this hobby that drive up prices aren't slumming for returnable cans at the local 7-11. I doubt many of them are depending on their cards to pay the mortgage. I would venture to guess the median wealth on this board is on the right side of the bell curve.

    Mike
  • AllenAllen Posts: 7,165 ✭✭✭

    Ask the Crisser

  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,171 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My Killebrew PSA 8 rookie has gone from a little under $1,000.00 less than 5 years ago to the last one selling for $2400.00.

    Since I only collect what I like I am not too concerned with the value increasing, although it IS nicer than dropping (LOL).

    Cards like the Ruth are great to own even in lower grades. I would say SOME of the PSA 8's I have from the 1960's have leveled off and even dipped a little in price as the new breed of collectors prefer 9's and especially 10's.

    I was upgrading my 8's to 9's when they became available IF I could afford them, I had the #1 Killebrew Master set, but the #2 guy kept adding 10's and has passed me. Personally,

    I just don't see the difference between most 9's and 10's and the price difference is sometimes astronomical.

    The demand for certain players seems to stay high. Mantle and Clemente are two that come to mind from the 1950'-1960's.

    I just don't think there's any "bubble" here that's going to pop. Prices might level off for a while, it might be a good time to go looking for another nice '33 Ruth. Get a well centered one!

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • 80sOPC80sOPC Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don’t have VCP anymore, but isn’t a Clemente 7 or 8 selling for like half the 2016 high price?

    Even that silly PWCC index has their sample flat since early 2016.

  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,171 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @80sOPC said:
    I don’t have VCP anymore, but isn’t a Clemente 7 or 8 selling for like half the 2016 high price?

    Even that silly PWCC index has their sample flat since early 2016.

    I'm not sure. What year? The 7's and 8's might be down, how about a well centered 8 or a 9?

    Comparing two players with the same year rookie card, Clemente was always WAY more expensive than Killebrew.

    Several of Killebrew's cards in PSA 7 and 8 from the mid sixties on, have dropped in value, but the 9's and 10's have kept going up.

    The point i was trying to make was, that I don't feel that there is a "bubble" that's going to burst. Some cards are dropping and some are going up in value.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • KendallCatKendallCat Posts: 2,966 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The Clemente rookie was an anomaly a couple of years ago price wise along with the Koufax, Rose, Ryan, and a couple of other rookies which were manipulated(shilled) by a few bad actors. Unfortunately some people lost some big money on these cards because of it - luckily I don’t deal in those cards but checking VCP at the time showed something was way off.

    Like Warren Buffet always says “when others are fearful be greedy, and when others are greedy be fearful.”

    KC

  • softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,267 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 15, 2019 8:38PM

    No worries in legit vintage unopened land.

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

  • CWCW Posts: 1,197 ✭✭✭

    @80sOPC said:
    I don’t have VCP anymore, but isn’t a Clemente 7 or 8 selling for like half the 2016 high price?

    Even that silly PWCC index has their sample flat since early 2016.

    I really like this card, as it's one of my favorite cards in the entire hobby for various reasons, so I am a bit biased here. :)

    It is interesting to look at the pricing of this card. In 2012, you could easily get a nicely centered PSA 7 for $2700 - $3200. Then around mid-2014 prices rose to around the $6K mark, basically doubling the price of a PSA 7. As mentioned, prices did indeed see a peak around 2016 which caused some PSA 7's to jump into the $10 - $12K range, Things have settled down a bit, but a PSA 7 will still set you back about $6K, give or take. And like many cards, centering can have a pretty big effect on the price of this one.

  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,171 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 16, 2019 6:44AM

    @softparade said:
    No worries in legit vintage unopened land.

    Just don't open it!

    Be advised, with the price explosion in the unopened market, if you don't think the scumbags of the hobby aren't working on resealing packs (and have been for years), you are fooling yourself.

    I am by no means an unopened expert, but it would seem to me that it's easier to reseal a wax pack to appear unopened than it is to alter a card well enough to pass TPG inspection. If memory serves, a lot of the later authenticated GAI packs were proven to be resealed.

    @KendallCat said:
    The Clemente rookie was an anomaly a couple of years ago price wise along with the Koufax, Rose, Ryan, and a couple of other rookies which were manipulated(shilled) by a few bad actors. Unfortunately some people lost some big money on these cards because of it - luckily I don’t deal in those cards but checking VCP at the time showed something was way off.

    Like Warren Buffet always says “when others are fearful be greedy, and when others are greedy be fearful.”

    KC

    Clemente's second year card goes for what a Killebrew rookie sells for right now.

    I am sure some shilling went on with the players you mentioned, but the demand still is higher on these guys, or the price gap wouldn't still be there. This in itself indicates a lack of "bubble". If a card, or cards, value is artificially inflated, the price should drop back to "where it belongs" over time.

    You mentioned the exact group of guys I was going to. The Koufax rookie is a prime example. You just can't shill a card and have the price continue to hold at such a high level. A "7" Koufax goes for the same as the Killebrew in an 8. Sandy's cards are more plentiful in 7, 9 and 10 than Harmon's. Especially in 7!

    No doubt Killer's playing in Minnesota and never being on a WS winner hurt his prices as well.

    Ryan is another guy people can't get enough of. His 1987 Topps in a PSA 10 still goes for $30.00! That's like, his 20th year card.

    I purchased some raw Bazooka panels a while ago and got some good grades on them. The Clemente sold for more than the Mantle. Both were PSA 9. In fact the Mantle didn't sell for quite some time and went for 33% less than Roberto, who sold immediately.

    As usual the thread is going a bit sideways. I maintain that the hobby, in general, is fine. The recent problems aren't going to cause a large. long term bad effect on card values.

    Relax and collect on.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • 1951WheatiesPremium1951WheatiesPremium Posts: 6,225 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I am a huge believer in conventional wisdom; it is worth its weight in gold. While I was involved in finance, I always went back to a great piece of advice given to history by Baron Rothschild, an 18th century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family, whom is credited with saying that "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." He should know. Rothschild made a fortune buying in the panic that followed the Battle of Waterloo against Napoleon.

    So, with the negative comes the positive: opportunity. As in, you may not find a better time to buy cards than right now as there seems to be hesitant buyers, some panicked sellers and chance always favors the bold. I think many will look back in a few years and wish they’d bought more stuff in 2019.

    Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?

    https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest

  • SeattleSlammerSeattleSlammer Posts: 9,953 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Thanks all for the input I appreciate it!

    I love lowball vintage cards ... like e98/e95/t205-206’s.

  • markj111markj111 Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭
    edited September 16, 2019 4:10PM

    I think a lot of PSA 10 modern will lose a lot of value for those players who do not develop into an all time great. Who will the speculators sell to?

  • 2dueces2dueces Posts: 6,231 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I’ve always collected low ball vintage. Vintage at one time (70’s) was prewar. During card shows you could barely give away T cards as they weren’t popular, sexy or current. I do remember boxes of raw and ads from Fritz commons for $1-5 dollars. Cobb’s as little as $25. T206’s with huge boarders advertised as VG. Out of all the boxes, albums, top loaders I NEVER, let me repeat NEVER saw any T206 that was anywhere near PSA 7 or above. 100’s and 100’s. Never. Can I say it once more, I never saw a T206 better than Ex-Nm. But I did see 100’s with huge boarders.

    W.C.Fields
    "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
  • esquiresportsesquiresports Posts: 1,360 ✭✭✭

    Combination of economy and psychology could lead to a major pull-back in pricing should we enter a recession. Cards at the higher end tend to be the last to fall and first to recover, but would not be immune. That said, an extended or substantial recession could result in a 50% or greater loss in value in my opinion. Thankfully, I believe most economists believe a recession prior to 2021 is unlikely.

    Always buying 1971 OPC Baseball packs.
  • Stone193Stone193 Posts: 24,351 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I was reading in an interview of Gary Vee - don't remember where - SMR? - and I inferred he was treating collectibles like any asset which is subject to volatility like the market - or something like that?

    I think if Vee tries hard enough? Maybe he'll get the "love" that was attributed to the late Mr Mint?

    Mike
  • arteeartee Posts: 757 ✭✭✭

    Too broad of a spectrum to cover in a blanket statement as questioned, IMO.

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