Fed interest rate announcement 7/31 and gold
KindaNewish
Posts: 827 ✭✭✭✭✭
Currently at @$1430
My predictions:
No rate cut, no clear guidance = $1250
.25 rate cut, no clear guidance = $1350
.25 rate cut, dovish guidance = $1400
.25 rate cut, hawkish guidance = $1300
.50 rate cut, nobody reads the rest of the story = $1500 + 5 to 10% each day for the next week or two.
0
Comments
Bold calls.
It’s good to see someone roll the proverbial dice on their rate vs. GLD pricing guidelines.
I agree with Jim Sinclair's opinion that it is all about the management of perceptions.
If I were the CIO of a bank or big business, your predictions are about how I would approach it.
I knew it would happen.
there is no time frame given for those numbers.
everyone making a price call needs to give a timeframe where it will happen.
I'm thinking it will sell off immediately after any announcement today. I'm not sure by how much. I hope I'm wrong.
Fed will be firing bullets that it will need later, but will not have. Their preference is not to cut, for now, but will they?
Only so many rate cuts remain before you reach zero.
The fact that they will be cutting speaks volumes about just how unsound the economy actually is.
It's all about confidence grasshopper.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
.> @derryb said:
QE is next after they can't cut.
they may be -- not sure -- seeing global slowdown and a slowdown in numbers here for a cut by 25 basis points.
I don't think things are so bad that we are looking at zero again for the foreseeable future. I think it is good they are trying to get ahead of the game. A cut today won't cause inflation and may help the economy.
I enjoy reading Sinclair. I agree with perceptions. And I enjoy reading the perceptions here.
I like to see the precious metals go up. Otherwise, I could give two craps.
It’s all fun and interesting to watch.
I see that the China trade talks have collapsed until after the 2020 election. Or not. If the U.S. Economy collapses before November 2020 what happens to gold?
here's a bearish prediction. https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fed-is-set-to-lower-interest-rates-it-might-be-time-to-sell-gold-51564508125
They will cut today... probably by a quarter point.... the comments will be critical though.... Fasten your seat belts... Cheers, RickO
any bets?
3 minutes left.
Quarter. No movement on gold...
Down $10......true, not much of a movement
another turn of the screw
the dollar index took a big jump up.
go gold.
press conference coming in a few minutes
gold recovered to pre-release levels. dollar index still elevated.
What's stopping the fed from going negative on rates? A handful of countries have negative rates right now: Switzerland, Denmark, Japan, Germany, Sweden, etc...
Dollar Index
2:00 announcement is the first spike. that move on the far right is during the initial minutes of the press conference.
I think they'll do QE first, but I'd have to look up the real life downfalls being experienced by the above.
gold down into post-announcement level area. dollar index still elevated to levels just above the 2:00 announcement level.
**EDIT: **
1. read it all in one go because this is behind a paywall. once off the page you'll either not get another look or must find a different browser or go to private browsing.
2. try this link to read it:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=18&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjlpZbG69_jAhUlhOAKHRZ_DP8QFjARegQIBBAB&url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/negative-rates-designed-as-a-short-term-jolt-have-become-an-addiction-11558363559&usg=AOvVaw14uPgifMZUBKXOFbeJ2dXc
or try this search and hit the 1st article, which is from the wall street journal.
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=uelBXfq0BtG2ggfH9LToDg&q=Negative+Rates,+Designed+as+a+Short-Term+Jolt,+Have+Become+an+Addiction+&oq=Negative+Rates,+Designed+as+a+Short-Term+Jolt,+Have+Become+an+Addiction+&gs_l=psy-ab.12..0i30.3243.3243..11588...0.0..0.69.69.1......0....2j1..gws-wiz.JjKT6t8S4ro&ved=0ahUKEwi69dKE8N_jAhVRm-AKHUc6De0Q4dUDCAc
Supposed to go up not down. lol
Oh well lets see how far she tanks, may get to buy the dip.
Timely thread; good insights.
"supposed to" and "predictable" are not terms I affix to PM's.
lower interest rate outlook, higher dollar. it is what it is.
That 98.683 is a 52 week high
it could be worse: TWOU
Fed just moved us to DEFCON 3 (definite confidence level).
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I guess we are a quality place to park money in a global slowdown
WHEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Man, I just sold a double eagle on Sunday to fund another purchase.
Collector, occasional seller
Sad to see the deliberate economic demise of America but at least I got gold.
But then again I got stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash too.
Oh well good to be diversified I suppose. Enjoy the roller coaster, stack on!!
I got stocks and bonds and real estate too, plus farmland, but over 50 percent of my portfolio is gold
the dollar index is down today but still somewhat higher than before the rate announcement
98.386 vs. 98.1
I got a 67 Chevy, a trailer with no wheels, plus a potted plant and 50% of a row boat.
Am I good for the coming demise?
get the only firearm the gov't doesn't track: bb gun
That's a good start.
Add a windmill and some solar.
Put the trailer on the creek bed and break out the fishing pole.
I know better but if that were truly the case I'd say your still better off than many.
I got a song that ain't got no Melody...
It's all about what the people want...
How much for the chevy?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Got my son an air rifle for his 11th.
(a BB gun is not a "firearm")
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Proud boy! Is that a 760 pump?
Wow, you know your air guns.
Yes, the Crosman classic model.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Yes Baley I sent a few innocent squirrels to heaven with that rifle and then moved up to the Diana while living in Germany as a kid. More power with the scope.
This is such a vivid experience for your son.
OP here. I admit defeat. I have no idea what I am talking about.
It's OK, neither does the FED. Only difference is they won't admit it.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Everybody's more distressed by the latest collapse of China-US trade negotiations. Looking like a long-term trade war, that's not good for anybody. It seems to be showing up not only in stocks, but also in PMs, for some strange reason.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
China is/was one of the biggest consumers of US dollars. The reduction in their demand due to loss of sales to US promises to be painful for dollar consumption. Dollar woes are always good for PMs.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
For Gold, The Fed’s Decision Didn’t Matter
". . . people were focused on the Fed’s anticipated decision, rather than the US dollar. If gold investors and analysts had cared to spend a bit more time focusing on the US dollar, rather than the Fed’s decision, they would not have seen any evidence that the US dollar was breaking down. This might have tempered their enthusiasm for higher gold prices."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Martin Armstrong is reporting that the FED's rate cut was to save the european economy.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I got a couple of Grateful Dead CDs and an oil lamp.
I knew it would happen.
the past couple of days it has run up on its own.
Ron Paul: "Interest rates are the price of money"
"It is not a coincidence that the Fed’s rate cut came along with Congress passing a two-year budget deal that increases our already 22 trillion dollars national debt and suspends the debt ceiling."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Which is why all the world's central banks need to raise rates to 3%.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear