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Hot Topics - Auction Mania - May 19th
Zoins
Posts: 33,863 ✭✭✭✭✭
Usually Hot Topics have some great tidbits of information. I felt this one was kind of a repeat of other topics discussed in the past, but perhaps, it was felt important enough to repeat.
In summary:
HOW TO AVOID BEING CLOBBERED
- Buy ONLY PCGS CAC coins.
- Do NOT seek bargins.
- WORK WITH A DEALER.
Regarding #3, it's important to know if your dealers are ones that actively work to hide information from you, the collector.
3
Comments
Yes, #2 is obvious. Always ask if you can pay your dealer a bit more for a coin.
As in many fields of expertise, there are fundamentals. Laura is restating her support for such fundamentals and stating them again for those who may have strayed or recently become collectors. Cheers, RickO
You’re smart enough to know that’s not what the article meant.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Perhaps Goldberg’s.
I soid my entire US coin collection thru Legend unreserved. They did a great job .
There were several NGC CAC coins in my collection as well .
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Yes, but it is 4 am. Logic hasn't woke up yet.
Oh no!
Did they cross at grade or did Legend sell them in the NGC holder?
ANA LM
USAF Retired — 34 years of active military service! 🇺🇸
I see too many people blindly buying NGC coins and getting burnt.
There are more people who do NOT know coins then do. Just trying to help them. You be shocked at what we saw last week.
Beyond honoring the contumelious sarcasm, this is why we need a disagree button.
The only way to quell a troll's appetite for destruction distraction is to agree. Not saying it always works
Often works? 
Going contrarian, I'll suggest that there are advantages to be had in purchasing some NGC CAC coins.
My own most successful efforts have come in downgrading early copper proofs and being patient with silver type coins I like. (Gold almost never). Still, as a dealer, this is sometimes a luxury when opportunity cost is considered. I might get an instant 20% pop in value on my fourth attempted cross at the 2 year anniversary of purchase. Is 9% annualized enough?
As a collector, consider this.
There may be a predisposition towards cherry-picking in NGC to PCGS cross-overs. For people who want to keep their jobs.
Yet,
CAC's smaller more coherent crew will be more consistent over time than twice or more the number of PCGS graders mixed about in various grouping.
CAC approval means sucking is not really an option.
Likely, over time (a year or two or three) a dramatic percentage of CAC coins will cross. You need the three right guys that day. If you don't think you've got a 5 year hold in coins, you should be doing estate pre-planning
I can't say what's true for a lot of 20th Century with the same assurance the odds are in your favor.
Pop-top protection and acceptance seems to suggest more crack-out potential via some outlier than quotidian increased solidity within a grade.
Blindly buying any grading company's coins will result in getting burnt.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Three pretty basic rules---I wonder how many people actually follow them?
You’re smart enough to know that’s not what the article meant.
Are you sure?
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
I am.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Please look up contumelious and the manner it which it amplifies the intensity of the sarcasm. @MFeld, trained in Law and literate in Latin, has humor so dry his emojis stand silently, rapt, in awe
As, for the last 35 years, have I
Sadly, I learned about #2 too late in my numismatic career.
I'm well compensated, though, by learning what "contumelious" means! My glass again is half full, indeed!
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
If you follow rule 1---does that eliminate worrying about Rule 2?
Absolutely
Fully awake and coherent, let's look at item #3. WORK WITH A DEALER (to avoid being clobbered).
That unfortunately gets back to the CAC is God scenario. If addressing a wealthy guy that knows little of numismatics and wants to sink several million dollars into coins, fair enough.
Many of those reading the hot topics though are veteran, skilled collectors that in their specialty have knowledge superior to all but the most experienced and comprehensive dealer. As for getting clobber, many series are in the tank with 50-75% declines. Sticker and gilded dealer is little comfort.
Point #3 need not have anything to do with CAC. And the right dealer or fellow collector can help some others avoid getting clobbered (or at least avoid getting clobbered as badly as they otherwise might).
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Laura is skilled, well respected and is expert at agitation. Absolutes are attention getters and I usually walk away from the hot Topic threads. You are correct Mark, that another expert can be an asset but certainly not a requirement for a successful trade.
for me the main advantage of working with a dealer is that they are in a position to see the coin first hand much more than me and also may know the "gossip" about a certain coin
Hopefully we can get more gossip here!
What about non-stickered PCGS coins?
I believe this is @specialist order for buying:
1-PCGS/CAC
2-PCGS
3-NGC/CAC
4-NGC
And this sequence still assumes quality for the grade, eye appeal, strike, condition, etc.
End Systemic Elitism - It Takes All Of Us
Perhaps but that’s not what she posts. The recommendation is “PCGS/CAC” and nothing else. I haven’t seen any recommendations for non-stickered
PCGS.
All good advice, though I'm surprised "learn to grade" wasn't mentioned. You can't expect a collector to know as much as a professional grader (or coin delear), but being able to tell the difference between a typical NGC coin and the same issue in PCGS/CAC is something most people can grasp after looking at enough coins.
Perhaps her clientele is relying on the TPG’s expert opinion grade?
Not everyone may have the desire or time to learn the nuances of grading. She’s even mentioned that many dealers cannot grade.
Coinosuros is right-try to learn to grade. BUT many people with such bizzy lives can not. My Hot Topics was not directed at collectors who traverse the bourse floors routinely.
I love dealers who have virtually no experience with retail or actually running an auction company chime in.
I guess I am like a cheap dishwasher-a major agitator! sorry, I refuse to kiss up to the smart alecs here. My artice was not t=for them because they think they are too damn smart. Come in my office for a week. See what I see. Then you shut up.
I'd have to agree with the 3 point summary.
In the area I dabble in currently, I'd NEVER buy a coin w/o "my" dealers assistance.
Not targeted at her specifically, but I think many dealers actually like uneducated collectors who act like sheep and blindly throw fistfuls of cash at inflated prices on merchandise based on plastic and "sticker rarity" alone. It makes things easier than someone who thinks for himself and asks a lot of questions and/or develops an aptitude or taste of his own.
If you are doing #3 and working with a COMPETENT dealer then #1 is largely moot. Plastic holders, unlike diamonds, are not forever and can be changed.
You're absolutely right that many view the coin market this way; however, it is paradoxical. If CAC's opinion is the end all, be all as it is made out to be by many here, then #1 and #3 should be regarded as equivalent or at least very close.
In that case there is money to be made on under appreciated NGC/CAC coins that could be converted into PCGS/CAC plastic. I think there is. The gap between PCGS/CAC and NGC/CAC is sizeable. The market is what it is.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Just a commen, that used to be the case. Crossing has become extremely difficult these days.
Absolutely NOT
Actually, I would flip-flop 2 & 3. CAC approval is based on the grade posted not the TPGS. So a 66 CAC should be roughly equivalent regardless of service.
I will note, however, that Mr. Market does not treat Pcgs CAC and NGC CAC equivalently. But Mr. Market does (in sectors I monitor) prefer NGC CAC to PCGS CAC-less.
And yet, heed what Ms. Sparber
advises.... stay away from drinking bar gins!
(could not resist chiming in despite my hiatus)
Fair enough. I had really good success a number of times a few years ago. Haven’t tried recently.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
So PCGS is now tougher than CAC?
You almost have that right. It's more like this ...
1. PCGS/CAC
...
200. PCGS
...
300. NGC/CAC
...
4000. NGC
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
Your coins were also outliers. If I recall correctly, in addition to being solid or high end for the grade, many of the coins also had other things going for them like exceptional toning. I think you sacrificed several NGC stars in that submission if it is from the thread I am thinking of. I'm still not convinced that some of them wouldn't upgrade if resubmitted in a regrade submission. Forget about color bumping - technically some of the coins deserved pluses or the next grade up.
PCGS has gone bonkers with many series IMHO. It is a bit better than before (when I refused to submit at all), but it still far from being completely back to normal IMHO.
You can do 1,2,3 and still get your hat handed to you by buying "hot" coins near market peaks. Sometimes prices never make it back there. Or if they do, you can be waiting for 5-11 yrs or more to break even. Think 1979-80, 1989-90, 2006-2008. The majority of the coin market, regardless of holder and stickers has not made it back to anywhere near peak August 2008 levels.....almost 11 yrs ago. Some of the BEST coins in the market (5,6, and 7 figures) saw brutal 2-3 brutal declines of 50-75% over the past 40 years.
Buy more when the market is in turmoil (think 1982, 1993-1996, 2001-2003, 2009-2011).
For those LONG term collectors with 25-50 yr time frames, this might not matter, especially if your coins are generally outside the area of numismatics that is quite dependent on slabs, stickers, and REG sets. For top pop registry sets it may not apply either as you may only get 1 opportunity every 5-20 yrs to buy that "best coin." But there's nothing wrong with optimizing and doubling up your purchases when the market is deep in the tank. This all assumes that collecting our rare coins will have continuing strong UP cycles as the boomers exit the hobby....and millenials take over.
One final word. You can also do 1,2,3 in an UP cycle....and still get your head handed to you. Working with a "dealer" guarantees no price or quality protection. And at times bargains may fall into your lap....nothing wrong with taking advantage of them. Many of the monster seated coins I ran across in the past seemed like bargains when I bought them....and they were just a few short years later. Some were bought from the best national retail dealers at half their "real" market value. Don't ignore opportunity when you know something they don't. I agree with CJ and CommemMan that some great deals reside in NGC CAC holders. And fresh non-CAC deals of PCGS and NGC coins not having seen daylight in 20-30 yrs can be incredible "bargins."
Please clarify that Cameo. Bonkers as in tight?
Your memory serves you correctly. Some were actually NGC coins that I paid full PCGS money for and then some 10 years or so ago . I felt I had to cross them to regain the value. Others I bought with the intent of crossing on a quasi arbitrage opportunity. Maybe a half dozen fell in this category. They all crossed and went up market value wise. Perhaps 30%/ 40%. It’s a funny market.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Yes the grading is very tight, but I have also noticed major differences in strike designations where the subtleties are not as subjective except in borderline cases.
I totally agree with Laura's Hot Topic advice. I have many clients that use money managers to manage their investment portfolio and pays fees for that service. Why are coins any different. If you are not a full time collector then way do you think you can buy right (selection of coin and price) most of the time?
I don’t think dealers can help the general lament that many coins are going down in value. They may be able help steer collectors to coins that may go up or won’t go down as fast but not the general market as much.
Also, it’s a concern that some dealers are now campaigning to hide information from collectors to get them to pay up for coins upgraded by crack out artists. This is my biggest worry with the "Do NOT seek bargins." recommendation. With less information, it's harder to know what you're buying.
They can be if you collect for fun, not as an investment. Lots of people do. Of course, if you consider your collection an investment, getting help with what you put into it can be a good thing.