here's my take on Jordan. his first two rounds are a microcosm of the state of his game right now. he has been doing this all......season......long. one round he'll look reminiscent of the 2015 Jordan, then the very next day he'll look like he's worthy of Rick Ankiel comparisons. or vice versa.
imo, it's best not to jump the gun with him. golf is a very, very......one more time......very difficult game. to think that anyone not named Jack Nicklaus or Tiger Woods has the ability to blaze through their entire professional career without encountering significant speed bumps is just not a rational way of thinking. the fact that Jordan is making appearances at the top of the leaderboard at any point during a golf tournament is a good sign. to me it says he's still got it, and once he fights through the inevitable slump that he's presently enduring, he'll get back to his winning ways.
to put things into perspective...
Jordan is 25 years old. he has 3 legs of the grand salami under his belt. Phil Mickelson -- the 2nd best player of this generation -- didn't win his first major until he was 33 years of age. i said prior to the tournament that i wouldn't place a dime on Jordan @ 20/1 this week, but if someone comes up with odds on him finding his game and increasing his major tally over the next 8 years, i'll back a dump truck full of benjamins into William Hill's front yard and unload it.
Tiger Woods Winning the Masters Would Be a 7-Figure Disaster for Some Sportsbooks
.....In total, 14% of the total money wagered on futures at William Hill are on Tiger to win.
My link showed 22% on Woods at Hill. I suspect that Woods has been overplayed for the last decade...plus Hill has just gotten another internet mention.
Tiger Woods Winning the Masters Would Be a 7-Figure Disaster for Some Sportsbooks
.....In total, 14% of the total money wagered on futures at William Hill are on Tiger to win.
My link showed 22% on Woods at Hill. I suspect that Woods has been overplayed for the last decade...plus Hill has just gotten another internet mention.
I'm not sure where William Hill derives their percentage numbers. One number could be for their US operations, the other could be for their British operations.
Frankly, considering that Woods is just a shadow of his former great self, and he's getting older by the day, i'm a bit surprised that "punters" would wager this type of percentage on him. I guess he obviously still has a strong following in the wagering community. Which kinda sorta tells me that betting on him is a brutal sucker's bet, even worse than the usual sucker's bet involved in wagering on tournies such as this with a bookie.
We discussed the 14-1 "reasonable" odds thing earlier and that he's currently 6-1. Figuring out betting lines in say football is relatively easy. If ya know the teams, know the circumstances, and have an understanding of how bookie odds are created, it's not that hard to predict football lines for the next series of games within a small margin of error.
I would imagine that odds making is similar in golf. Just looking at the circumstances quickly, I would say the real odds should be roughly around 10-1 which makes betting on Woods at 6-1 an awful sucker's bet. Not that betting on the other players is overall any better for a positive outcome of increasing a bankroll in the long run because there is still a bookies vig involved. However this current bookies vig on Woods may now be around 30% or 40% which is even worse odds than betting on the "big wheel" at a casino.
But as we all know, even the worst odds bets sometimes hit. So perhaps the 85k guy hits his bet, and good for him if he does. However if he continues on making sucker's bets on sports, even a 1.19 million dollar hit, the way this guy gambles, will sooner or later be back in the coffers of William Hill.
@LarkinCollector said:
I'm sorry, but I can't take your opinions on golf even remotely seriously after this: I like Jordan Spieth, and I will be pleasantly surprised if he makes the cut.
ETA: Stick to baseball
You obviously haven't been watching Spieth hack his way around the courses he's played this year. I have, and it has been painful watching him implode for the past year or so. This is the first cut he has made in a tournament with a strong field in a long time, and I am pleasantly surprised.
Spieth is currently ranked #33 in the world golf rankings, but in the tournaments since last year's Open Championship, his average ranking points would place him at #87. In other words, Spieth has been the 87th best golfer on tour for an extended period of time, and it wasn't at all a given that the 87th best golfer would be among the 65 who made the cut.
This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
@DIMEMAN said:
It use to be great back in the 60's.......not so much anymore.
Sigh......................... Dimeman has to come in and be himself.
DISCLAIMER FOR BASEBAL21 In the course of every human endeavor since the dawn of time the risk of human error has always been a factor. Including but not limited to field goals, 4th down attempts, or multiple paragraph ramblings on a sports forum authored by someone who shall remain anonymous.
for those unfamiliar with Molinari, he'd a cold-blooded assassin. lest anyone forgets, he's the guy who stared Tiger down at the British last year and walked away with the Claret Jug. dude has made one bogey in 54 holes thus far and is going nowhere. and that's not even taking steely-eyed guys like Finau and Koepka into consideration. if Tiger does what millions hope he will, he's gonna have to earn it and then some.
i'm not entirely familiar with propswap (or any other marketplace), but if i was the owner of that ticket and could move it tonight for a handsome profit, i'd be all over it
@Coinstartled said:
One chance in 5 seems about right here. That would make him about 7-2.
Of course a lot of Belmont wagers were made on Secretariat for collectible value.
Not sure if I want to get up at 6:30 though to watch.
The real odds after yesterday should have been around 10-1. After this third round I'd say the real odds should be around 5-1 or 6-1. He is two strokes behind the leader, tied with another, and some toughies right behind him in striking range. Still a number of hurdles for Tiger to overcome.
But I agree with ya the "Tiger odds" from the books will be 7-2 or less. Good odds analysis on your part.
Be interesting to see if some bookies embarrass themselves and make Woods 5-2 or 2-1 or something too low like that, figuring at this point the punters will take any odds on Tiger just to get a bet in...like gambling herd mentality.
@galaxy27 said:
for those unfamiliar with Molinari, he'd a cold-blooded assassin. lest anyone forgets, he's the guy who stared Tiger down at the British last year and walked away with the Claret Jug. dude has made one bogey in 54 holes thus far and is going nowhere. and that's not even taking steely-eyed guys like Finau and Koepka into consideration. if Tiger does what millions hope he will, he's gonna have to earn it and then some.
i'm not entirely familiar with propswap (or any other marketplace), but if i was the owner of that ticket and could move it tonight for a handsome profit, i'd be all over it
Galaxy. I get the early start...but what are "split tees"?
Molinari +175
Tiger +333
Koepka +600
finau +650
d johnson +2200
poulter +2500
webb simpson +2800
Schauflee +3300
Louie Oosthiuzen +4000
Matt Kuchar +5000
Rickie Fowler +6600
Adam Scott +10000
Justin Harding +10000
Jon Rahm +12500
Justin Thomas +12500
Jason Day +17500
@galaxy27 said:
for those unfamiliar with Molinari, he'd a cold-blooded assassin. lest anyone forgets, he's the guy who stared Tiger down at the British last year and walked away with the Claret Jug. dude has made one bogey in 54 holes thus far and is going nowhere. and that's not even taking steely-eyed guys like Finau and Koepka into consideration. if Tiger does what millions hope he will, he's gonna have to earn it and then some.
i'm not entirely familiar with propswap (or any other marketplace), but if i was the owner of that ticket and could move it tonight for a handsome profit, i'd be all over it
Galaxy. I get the early start...but what are "split tees"?
Really unfortunate that the format has to change Sunday due ti the weather concern. Would of liked to have seen the Sat. ideal conditions repeated for Sundays final. For those golfing later they may be subject to worse weather that the earlier starters. Advantage for those early starters if the weather turns around 11 AM. The early starters will have gotten in many holes under dry/drier conditions. Shame the weather may assist in resulting in an unfair advantage. Great event so far.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@galaxy27 said:
for those unfamiliar with Molinari, he'd a cold-blooded assassin. lest anyone forgets, he's the guy who stared Tiger down at the British last year and walked away with the Claret Jug. dude has made one bogey in 54 holes thus far and is going nowhere. and that's not even taking steely-eyed guys like Finau and Koepka into consideration. if Tiger does what millions hope he will, he's gonna have to earn it and then some.
i'm not entirely familiar with propswap (or any other marketplace), but if i was the owner of that ticket and could move it tonight for a handsome profit, i'd be all over it
Galaxy. I get the early start...but what are "split tees"?
Molinari +175
Tiger +333
Koepka +600
finau +650
d johnson +2200
poulter +2500
webb simpson +2800
Schauflee +3300
Louie Oosthiuzen +4000
Matt Kuchar +5000
Rickie Fowler +6600
Adam Scott +10000
Justin Harding +10000
Jon Rahm +12500
Justin Thomas +12500
Jason Day +17500
Yea, i just checked out two sportsbook websites at random and they both had Tiger at 3-1.
An interesting idea for the gambler with the 85k ticket. He could hedge that bet and sell shares of it, to basically make a profit on the ticket, even if Tiger loses tomorrow. He could sell all of it or part of it, and rest easy on tomorrow's outcome.
However just a feeling that this is the type of guy who likes going all-in, safety be damned.
@galaxy27 said:
for those unfamiliar with Molinari, he'd a cold-blooded assassin. lest anyone forgets, he's the guy who stared Tiger down at the British last year and walked away with the Claret Jug. dude has made one bogey in 54 holes thus far and is going nowhere. and that's not even taking steely-eyed guys like Finau and Koepka into consideration. if Tiger does what millions hope he will, he's gonna have to earn it and then some.
i'm not entirely familiar with propswap (or any other marketplace), but if i was the owner of that ticket and could move it tonight for a handsome profit, i'd be all over it
good post galaxy. I heard one of the announcers say today that all the young guys are going to get nervous
so Tiger will have an advantage, but I don't really buy into that. Hasn't Koepka won three majors? He obviously
has great ability to handle high stress situations. I don't think the young guys are ready to just fold the tent and go home.
DISCLAIMER FOR BASEBAL21 In the course of every human endeavor since the dawn of time the risk of human error has always been a factor. Including but not limited to field goals, 4th down attempts, or multiple paragraph ramblings on a sports forum authored by someone who shall remain anonymous.
The threesome format put Woods in the final group which is a small advantage. Otherwise he would have been in the second to last group. I don’t watch watch much golf unless Tiger is playing well except for Majors and the Ryder Cup. With that being said I’ve never seen Molinari miss a shot. In the Ryder Cup it seemed like every putt was a dagger in the heart of the cup. What a field. No matter what Woods has shown he is able to mix it up the elite. There was a time when he was THE elite.
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@Coinstartled said:
11 years - over forty tournaments have been won by other golfers. He may win, but nobody will be intimidated.
This is true but he will have the entirety of the crowd routing hard for him. The cheers have been deafening. I guess that could work against him to if he tries to hard. If he stays within himself he has a great shot. Time for bed as I don’t want to miss tomorrow. Must see TV. I’ll be pulling hard for him but realize the odds are against him.
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
That putt on the 9th green was pretty darn impressive.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@stevek said:
Well win or lose, the 85k guy sure is getting an adrenaline rush thrill with that ticket.
There's an old saying among gamblers...the next best thing to gambling and winning, is gambling and losing.
I’m sure he is thankful that Woods is tied with 5 holes to go
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I'm not an avid golf fan, but I'm really enjoying this one!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Sorta bad news, the 85k guy just had a heart attack. His "loyal" girlfriend, rather than accompanying him to the hospital, lovingly took hold of the ticket, and stayed in front of the TV set watching the tournament.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
@stevek said:
This tournament may have been fixed for Tiger to win.
Did anyone ever think about that?
I'm not seeing any evidence of that. There are some incredible shots being made and Tiger still has to make all his own. -13 is an amazing feat on this course with the weather today, too.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
@stevek said:
This tournament may have been fixed for Tiger to win.
Did anyone ever think about that?
I'm not seeing any evidence of that. There are some incredible shots being made and Tiger still has to make all his own. -13 is an amazing feat on this course with the weather today, too.
Tiger's ball may have some sort of golf hole homing device magnet in it.
Comments
Bernhard Langer currently at 500-1
Get that 85k down on Bernard...win a cool $42.5 million
Yea!
here's my take on Jordan. his first two rounds are a microcosm of the state of his game right now. he has been doing this all......season......long. one round he'll look reminiscent of the 2015 Jordan, then the very next day he'll look like he's worthy of Rick Ankiel comparisons. or vice versa.
imo, it's best not to jump the gun with him. golf is a very, very......one more time......very difficult game. to think that anyone not named Jack Nicklaus or Tiger Woods has the ability to blaze through their entire professional career without encountering significant speed bumps is just not a rational way of thinking. the fact that Jordan is making appearances at the top of the leaderboard at any point during a golf tournament is a good sign. to me it says he's still got it, and once he fights through the inevitable slump that he's presently enduring, he'll get back to his winning ways.
to put things into perspective...
Jordan is 25 years old. he has 3 legs of the grand salami under his belt. Phil Mickelson -- the 2nd best player of this generation -- didn't win his first major until he was 33 years of age. i said prior to the tournament that i wouldn't place a dime on Jordan @ 20/1 this week, but if someone comes up with odds on him finding his game and increasing his major tally over the next 8 years, i'll back a dump truck full of benjamins into William Hill's front yard and unload it.
My link showed 22% on Woods at Hill. I suspect that Woods has been overplayed for the last decade...plus Hill has just gotten another internet mention.
I'm not sure where William Hill derives their percentage numbers. One number could be for their US operations, the other could be for their British operations.
Frankly, considering that Woods is just a shadow of his former great self, and he's getting older by the day, i'm a bit surprised that "punters" would wager this type of percentage on him. I guess he obviously still has a strong following in the wagering community. Which kinda sorta tells me that betting on him is a brutal sucker's bet, even worse than the usual sucker's bet involved in wagering on tournies such as this with a bookie.
We discussed the 14-1 "reasonable" odds thing earlier and that he's currently 6-1. Figuring out betting lines in say football is relatively easy. If ya know the teams, know the circumstances, and have an understanding of how bookie odds are created, it's not that hard to predict football lines for the next series of games within a small margin of error.
I would imagine that odds making is similar in golf. Just looking at the circumstances quickly, I would say the real odds should be roughly around 10-1 which makes betting on Woods at 6-1 an awful sucker's bet. Not that betting on the other players is overall any better for a positive outcome of increasing a bankroll in the long run because there is still a bookies vig involved. However this current bookies vig on Woods may now be around 30% or 40% which is even worse odds than betting on the "big wheel" at a casino.
But as we all know, even the worst odds bets sometimes hit. So perhaps the 85k guy hits his bet, and good for him if he does. However if he continues on making sucker's bets on sports, even a 1.19 million dollar hit, the way this guy gambles, will sooner or later be back in the coffers of William Hill.
You obviously haven't been watching Spieth hack his way around the courses he's played this year. I have, and it has been painful watching him implode for the past year or so. This is the first cut he has made in a tournament with a strong field in a long time, and I am pleasantly surprised.
Spieth is currently ranked #33 in the world golf rankings, but in the tournaments since last year's Open Championship, his average ranking points would place him at #87. In other words, Spieth has been the 87th best golfer on tour for an extended period of time, and it wasn't at all a given that the 87th best golfer would be among the 65 who made the cut.
Tiger million dollar chit not looking so good today.
Public service announcement.
Million Dollar ticket has regained some luster!
I'll give him 25K for half the ticket.
Tiger making a horse race out of it. We shall see if he wins it or falls short.
Will be interesting to see the new odds.
Might be some gamblers out there now betting their kidneys on Tiger, thinking he's a sure thing at this stage.
Sigh......................... Dimeman has to come in and be himself.
In the course of every human endeavor since the dawn of time the risk of human error has always been a factor. Including but not limited to field goals, 4th down attempts, or multiple paragraph ramblings on a sports forum authored by someone who shall remain anonymous.
One chance in 5 seems about right here. That would make him about 7-2.
Of course a lot of Belmont wagers were made on Secretariat for collectible value.
Not sure if I want to get up at 6:30 though to watch.
for those unfamiliar with Molinari, he'd a cold-blooded assassin. lest anyone forgets, he's the guy who stared Tiger down at the British last year and walked away with the Claret Jug. dude has made one bogey in 54 holes thus far and is going nowhere. and that's not even taking steely-eyed guys like Finau and Koepka into consideration. if Tiger does what millions hope he will, he's gonna have to earn it and then some.
i'm not entirely familiar with propswap (or any other marketplace), but if i was the owner of that ticket and could move it tonight for a handsome profit, i'd be all over it
The real odds after yesterday should have been around 10-1. After this third round I'd say the real odds should be around 5-1 or 6-1. He is two strokes behind the leader, tied with another, and some toughies right behind him in striking range. Still a number of hurdles for Tiger to overcome.
But I agree with ya the "Tiger odds" from the books will be 7-2 or less. Good odds analysis on your part.
Be interesting to see if some bookies embarrass themselves and make Woods 5-2 or 2-1 or something too low like that, figuring at this point the punters will take any odds on Tiger just to get a bet in...like gambling herd mentality.
None of these current guys compare to Jack, Arni or Player...….NONE.
I'd add Lee Trevino to that list.
Galaxy. I get the early start...but what are "split tees"?
updated odds:
from bet365
Molinari +175
Tiger +333
Koepka +600
finau +650
d johnson +2200
poulter +2500
webb simpson +2800
Schauflee +3300
Louie Oosthiuzen +4000
Matt Kuchar +5000
Rickie Fowler +6600
Adam Scott +10000
Justin Harding +10000
Jon Rahm +12500
Justin Thomas +12500
Jason Day +17500
threesomes going off 1 & 10 simultaneously
Really unfortunate that the format has to change Sunday due ti the weather concern. Would of liked to have seen the Sat. ideal conditions repeated for Sundays final. For those golfing later they may be subject to worse weather that the earlier starters. Advantage for those early starters if the weather turns around 11 AM. The early starters will have gotten in many holes under dry/drier conditions. Shame the weather may assist in resulting in an unfair advantage. Great event so far.
Thx Galaxy. That is big.
Yes, Lee too.
Yea, i just checked out two sportsbook websites at random and they both had Tiger at 3-1.
An interesting idea for the gambler with the 85k ticket. He could hedge that bet and sell shares of it, to basically make a profit on the ticket, even if Tiger loses tomorrow. He could sell all of it or part of it, and rest easy on tomorrow's outcome.
However just a feeling that this is the type of guy who likes going all-in, safety be damned.
good post galaxy. I heard one of the announcers say today that all the young guys are going to get nervous
so Tiger will have an advantage, but I don't really buy into that. Hasn't Koepka won three majors? He obviously
has great ability to handle high stress situations. I don't think the young guys are ready to just fold the tent and go home.
In the course of every human endeavor since the dawn of time the risk of human error has always been a factor. Including but not limited to field goals, 4th down attempts, or multiple paragraph ramblings on a sports forum authored by someone who shall remain anonymous.
11 years - over forty tournaments have been won by other golfers. He may win, but nobody will be intimidated.
Here's hoping for a meltdown.
The threesome format put Woods in the final group which is a small advantage. Otherwise he would have been in the second to last group. I don’t watch watch much golf unless Tiger is playing well except for Majors and the Ryder Cup. With that being said I’ve never seen Molinari miss a shot. In the Ryder Cup it seemed like every putt was a dagger in the heart of the cup. What a field. No matter what Woods has shown he is able to mix it up the elite. There was a time when he was THE elite.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
This is true but he will have the entirety of the crowd routing hard for him. The cheers have been deafening. I guess that could work against him to if he tries to hard. If he stays within himself he has a great shot. Time for bed as I don’t want to miss tomorrow. Must see TV. I’ll be pulling hard for him but realize the odds are against him.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
One thing is certain, he will be wearing a red shirt.
Too tough to predict from here. Weather may be an issue and it may throw all of the final group off a bit if they are starting on the back 9.
Wonder how many folks are going to tune in at 2:00 Eastern looking for golf and seeing a gelato machine infomercial instead.
breakfast at augusta roll call.....................who is up eating flutie flakes & ready for some epicness?
In. 6:15 am PST came early
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Assassin up by 3 after 2 consecutive Woody bogeys.
collar is looking a little tight.
That putt on the 9th green was pretty darn impressive.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Rut roh
They are letting the field back in
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Well win or lose, the 85k guy sure is getting an adrenaline rush thrill with that ticket.
There's an old saying among gamblers...the next best thing to gambling and winning, is gambling and losing.
Some bookies last seen packing up their belongings from the office, and bolting the windows and doors in case Tiger Woods wins. 🤣
I’m sure he is thankful that Woods is tied with 5 holes to go
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
how good is this
I'm not an avid golf fan, but I'm really enjoying this one!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
a coin toss for $1.2M
Extra innings possible?
Sorta bad news, the 85k guy just had a heart attack. His "loyal" girlfriend, rather than accompanying him to the hospital, lovingly took hold of the ticket, and stayed in front of the TV set watching the tournament.
The bookies are sweating! LOL!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Looks like Tiger smells blood.
This tournament may have been fixed for Tiger to win.
Did anyone ever think about that?
I'm not seeing any evidence of that. There are some incredible shots being made and Tiger still has to make all his own. -13 is an amazing feat on this course with the weather today, too.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
i told Larkin last night if Tiger wins i'm selling every card of his i own.
i just fired up the scanner lol
If Tiger hangs on to win it, i would say this tourney, considering all the circumstances, has to be one of the greatest golf tournies of all time.
Tiger's ball may have some sort of golf hole homing device magnet in it.