@KbKards said:
It makes absolutely no sense to snipe a shill bid. Most popular items are going to have a large amount of bids placed by early bidders who will bid until they're high and stop. If somebody outbids them they'll go in again and again to become high again. If nobody outbids them they're figuring they're going to get a steal and won't bid again unless necessary. Shill bids placed early give all of those type bidders ample opportunity to bid over and over again, driving the price up for the shiller. If the shill bid is sniped at the end all those bidders won't have an opportunity to bid against the shilled bid, driving it closer to the price the seller will accept. So unless a real snipe bid comes in, and that snipe bid could be lower simply due to the sniper thinking his snipe should be adequate based on the current price, then the card will sell to the shiller. The shiller has wasted their time and opportunity to sell the card and has tainted the card for the next time it comes up. If the goal for the shiller was to actually sell the card at a minimum price, sniping the shill bid gave all the early bidders not opportunity to bid again, and all the snipers no opportunity increase their snipe if the current price is higher than expected.
I actually think it makes all the sense in the world. There are loads of cards that launch in the final minutes. Lets say you are hoping for your card to sell for $2,000. You snipe $1,975 and if it goes for $1,400 you win it. If someone out bids you they win it. I have seen countless threads started that says did I get shilled or is this an example of shill bidding based on typical patterns of bidding that look suspicious. I have yet to see one started about the shill snipe. It happens all of the time. Heck I own a card I bought from a seller who did this through PWCC and I ended up just purchasing it direct from him for higher at a later date. There are so many high volume sellers that use PWCC and Probstein now that have numerous EBAY accounts and it is a lot cheaper to go this route vs. the guy who just got killed on his 93 refactor promo set.
@Dpeck100 said:
I am not debating this but I have to laugh at these last two posts. You guys have to realize the snipe shill is the go to bid on EBAY. That is how you get shilled the hardest. Launch the snipe and hope to tie up someone in the air or win the card and either don't pay or buy it with another account that you didn't use to consign it with and list it again.
That makes no sense. The snipe is basically your "best price", at least it is for me.
If I don't get it, I don't get it, if I do, I get it for the price I want to pay anyway. How am I getting bid up with a "snipe shill" if he outbids my best price and has to buy his own card back? lol
@KbKards said:
It makes absolutely no sense to snipe a shill bid. Most popular items are going to have a large amount of bids placed by early bidders who will bid until they're high and stop. If somebody outbids them they'll go in again and again to become high again. If nobody outbids them they're figuring they're going to get a steal and won't bid again unless necessary. Shill bids placed early give all of those type bidders ample opportunity to bid over and over again, driving the price up for the shiller. If the shill bid is sniped at the end all those bidders won't have an opportunity to bid against the shilled bid, driving it closer to the price the seller will accept. So unless a real snipe bid comes in, and that snipe bid could be lower simply due to the sniper thinking his snipe should be adequate based on the current price, then the card will sell to the shiller. The shiller has wasted their time and opportunity to sell the card and has tainted the card for the next time it comes up. If the goal for the shiller was to actually sell the card at a minimum price, sniping the shill bid gave all the early bidders not opportunity to bid again, and all the snipers no opportunity increase their snipe if the current price is higher than expected.
@Dpeck100 said:
I actually think it makes all the sense in the world. There are loads of cards that launch in the final minutes. Lets say you are hoping for your card to sell for $2,000. You snipe $1,975 and if it goes for $1,400 you win it. If someone out bids you they win it
That sounds like an obvious waste of time, not to mention for high value cards, buyers have great memories and will see the buyer trying to sell the card again that they sniped back to themselves? How many times can they do this before their account simply gets banned?
@AFLfan said:
Ok, guys... Let's keep in mind that slamming individuals and sellers is not allowed around here. I know that people have theories on shilling and frankly, some of the info gathered is convincing. But truth is that there is no hard proof and accusing people/companies of shilling is a big deal. As mentioned by members above, there are ways to avoid someone running up your bids in the fashions discussed. Implementing some of them should greatly reduce the number of times you are affected by these situations.
Let's get back to some more enjoyable card talk. Who got something cool this weekend? Post it somewhere and let's take a look!
Sorry but exactly who did Jimmy_Commonpants slam in his post ? Everything in the pic was wild carded out lol Also his screen shot was 100% proof that the seller clearly has a second account running up his bids, there is no "Therory" there
He slammed no one and as I said, some of the info shown is very convincing, but guarantees nothing. My comment was made after other members first began putting out some names. I did not specifically call anyone out, and made my statement as guidance moving forward.
If you have a problem with my statements moving forward, please feel free to reach out to me via PM. I prefer not to be challenged publicly in a thread. Other members have messaged me, and I believe that we have had some constructive discussions. I am willing to see multiple sides of a discussion, and I have no interest in being known as a "hammer" on these forums, but it is part of my job with PSA to moderate these boards. Thank you for understanding.
Todd Tobias - Grateful Collector - I focus on autographed American Football League sets, Fleer & Topps, 1960-1969, and lacrosse cards.
These paranoiac threads on shilling and sniping usually run a predictable course with predictable comments, yet always remain wildly entertaining, especially if and when Dpeck decides to engage and offer up a free education. He is always articulate and able to express (with a patience that I don't have) exactly why many of the preconceived notions about auctions and sniping and shilling are mistaken. I get it, though, that most people are already firmly in one camp or the other, and it's really no skin off of my back how people choose to participate on the platforms in acquiring their collectibles. So, as they say, "You do you".
First of all if the goal is to cover your tracks one bid vs. a number of bids is obviously a better course of action. The notion that a snipe has to be your best bid is simply wrong. There is a flurry of activity at the end on many auctions and in many cases three or four snipes go off and probably some don't go off at all. If the goal is to protect your investment and not let a card sell for less than you want entering a final bid at a desired level insures your card doesn't sell for less than that number. Essentially a hidden reserve.
There are probably plenty of examples where the consignor is not even the under bidder and their attempt at protecting their investment wasn't even needed and there are probably plenty more where they are the under bidder and in some cases obviously the winner. I personally have never sold a card through anyone other than myself and I am one of the few collectors that actually run $0.99 cent auctions from time to time in wrestling cards and it can be very stressful watching a card languish for days and going into the final moments just hoping two snipes launch and collide at higher levels. This same stress obviously exists in the larger consignment auctions and now you can potentially use your own EBAY account, a friends, a business partner, your wife's etc. to ensure you don't get hosed on the final price.
There are plenty of cards that you have an easier time predicting a final selling price on that are more liquid so obviously there is no need to do something like this there but if you have a card that is more a niche card and you really need two or three collectors battling it out if just one of those collectors isn't involved the card can sell for substantially less than it otherwise would. Launching a final bid to protect the card from selling at a much lower level is a rational strategy. There are probably plenty of examples where a card is just not moving because as it seems all of the "smart" collectors refuse to bid on cards until the end and therefore a seller could panic and go this route when they had no intentions of shilling their card to begin with. I have seen over the years countless cards not get paid for and show up a month or two later and they let the card fly again. Lets say you have a business partner and one person consigns the card and the other protects it and wins. Big deal. You pay the consignment fees of say 10% but the card might have sold for 30% less than you wanted. Your out only 10% vs. 30%. You can come up with all kinds of scenarios where the math works.
The big risk of the traditional shill methods is people are hip to them and drop out of an auction if they think something is array and either stop bidding or retract a bid. You can't retract a snipe so their work is done and no one suspected anything. This stuff happens all of the time right under your nose but because the "smart" money only snipes they are now the "smart" money too.
Big deal. You pay the consignment fees of say 10% but the card might have sold for 30% less than you wanted. Your out only 10% vs. 30%. You can come up with all kinds of scenarios where the math works.
So they eat the 10%, relist, and what happens if the bids come in even lower this time? Do they eat another 10%? Seems kind of risky.
Big deal. You pay the consignment fees of say 10% but the card might have sold for 30% less than you wanted. Your out only 10% vs. 30%. You can come up with all kinds of scenarios where the math works.
So they eat the 10%, relist, and what happens if the bids come in even lower this time? Do they eat another 10%? Seems kind of risky.
I know of an example where the card was relisted a year later and sold for double. It doesn't take many of those to make up for a few bad ones.
There are loads of dealers out there that spend big money getting cards reviewed. Sometimes they win and sometimes they lose but if you win the aggregate that is all that matters.
Big deal. You pay the consignment fees of say 10% but the card might have sold for 30% less than you wanted. Your out only 10% vs. 30%. You can come up with all kinds of scenarios where the math works.
So they eat the 10%, relist, and what happens if the bids come in even lower this time? Do they eat another 10%? Seems kind of risky.
I know of an example where the card was relisted a year later and sold for double. It doesn't take many of those to make up for a few bad ones.
There are loads of dealers out there that spend big money getting cards reviewed. Sometimes they win and sometimes they lose but if you win the aggregate that is all that matters.
Same thing here.
I could see that for the very top end cards (like Michael Jordan 1986 Fleer PSA 10s). Though I doubt those type of cards need shilling in the first place.
But I doubt anyone is going to "snipe shill" a sub-$1000 card which is the majority of sales on feeBay to "maybe" recoup $100 more dollars a year later.
Big deal. You pay the consignment fees of say 10% but the card might have sold for 30% less than you wanted. Your out only 10% vs. 30%. You can come up with all kinds of scenarios where the math works.
So they eat the 10%, relist, and what happens if the bids come in even lower this time? Do they eat another 10%? Seems kind of risky.
I know of an example where the card was relisted a year later and sold for double. It doesn't take many of those to make up for a few bad ones.
There are loads of dealers out there that spend big money getting cards reviewed. Sometimes they win and sometimes they lose but if you win the aggregate that is all that matters.
Same thing here.
I could see that for the very top end cards (like Michael Jordan 1986 Fleer PSA 10s). Though I doubt those type of cards need shilling in the first place.
But I doubt anyone is going to "snipe shill" a sub-$1000 card which is the majority of sales on feeBay to "maybe" recoup $100 more dollars a year later.
The OP is worried about getting shilled on $50 worth of cards.
Shilling can and does take place at all price levels.
It certainly takes place on $1,000 cards. The card I mentioned above was just a little over $500 that I referenced I purchased at a later date.
@doubledragon said:
A michael jordan precious metal green popped off for $350,000 in February on ebay. Think there wasn't some shilling on that?😉
The under bidder bid 29 times on the item. Interesting they have not bid on a single item since. Like you said if your rich shilling doesn't matter. The winner is RICH!
@doubledragon said:
It was a pwcc. Yes, you have to get permission to bid with stuff that valuable.
This is not entirely true. It was listed initially with no restraints and people were shilling it up like they did the Strasburg super refactor years ago so they canceled the listing and started it over with approved bidders only.
I would imagine going forward they will make sure on items with this much potential they do only allow pre approved bidders to avoid a similar situation.
I'm just waiting for the day that I get hit with a reserve not met. It hasn't happened yet, but I just know its coming. I have heard stories about it. To sit there and wait DAYS for an auction to end, thinking you've won, just to have it snatched away. Im not sure how the reserve not met thing works exactly though.
@doubledragon said:
I'm just waiting for the day that I get hit with a reserve not met. It hasn't happened yet, but I just know its coming. I have heard stories about it. To sit there and wait DAYS for an auction to end, thinking you've won, just to have it snatched away. Im not sure how the reserve not met thing works exactly though.
I don't know if you are being serious or not but if so you will know that an auction has a reserve and you will know once it has been met. It clearly states when you bid. Most listings don't use a reserve because it is expensive in terms of fees and a lot of bidders shy away from them. Hence why there are lots of straight auctions with hidden reserves.
Yes, I have heard that sometimes the seller doesn't reveal that there is a reserve until the auction is over. I didn't know if it was true or not. As a matter of fact I have been worried about that because there is an auction on ebay that ends in 30 minutes that I am bidding in, and the card is very rare, but the bids are low. I was worried the seller might not want to sell it for the winning bid, if it is too low.
@doubledragon said:
Yes, I have heard that sometimes the seller doesn't reveal that there is a reserve until the auction is over. I didn't know if it was true or not. As a matter of fact I have been worried about that because there is an auction on ebay that ends in 30 minutes that I am bidding in, and the card is very rare, but the bids are low. I was worried the seller might not want to sell it for the winning bid, if it is too low.
I have heard of situations where a seller will back out of a transaction and say the item is lost or stolen and cancel the transaction because they aren't satisfied with the selling price. Good luck with your item. Go to watchcount.com and type in the item number and see how many people are watching it. It might be a situation where it is under the radar or it might be a situation where the snipes will fire off and it won't go for as low as you think it might.
I'm headed over to ebay right now to get ready for the final showdown. I hope the seller doesn't pull any shenanigans on me if I win. These auctions are always very tense when they are ending. I just know the snipers are out there waiting. The adrenaline always kicks in near the end. I'm heading out. Have a great evening, and wish me luck!
@Bharris said:
The real question is how many people on here are will to tell the truth and say they shill most if not all their auctions lol . I know I do lol
To be completely honest, lots of people on here would really like to know your eBay id.
OK, this is heading in a direction that I don't think shows a lot of promise, so I am going to lock it down. The takeaway from this discussion, I believe, is that shilling is an unfortunate part of the hobby, but there are ways to limit the amount that it can affect you.
Todd Tobias - Grateful Collector - I focus on autographed American Football League sets, Fleer & Topps, 1960-1969, and lacrosse cards.
Comments
how do u know its a shill bidd
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
I actually think it makes all the sense in the world. There are loads of cards that launch in the final minutes. Lets say you are hoping for your card to sell for $2,000. You snipe $1,975 and if it goes for $1,400 you win it. If someone out bids you they win it. I have seen countless threads started that says did I get shilled or is this an example of shill bidding based on typical patterns of bidding that look suspicious. I have yet to see one started about the shill snipe. It happens all of the time. Heck I own a card I bought from a seller who did this through PWCC and I ended up just purchasing it direct from him for higher at a later date. There are so many high volume sellers that use PWCC and Probstein now that have numerous EBAY accounts and it is a lot cheaper to go this route vs. the guy who just got killed on his 93 refactor promo set.
That makes no sense. The snipe is basically your "best price", at least it is for me.
If I don't get it, I don't get it, if I do, I get it for the price I want to pay anyway. How am I getting bid up with a "snipe shill" if he outbids my best price and has to buy his own card back? lol
Bingo.
That sounds like an obvious waste of time, not to mention for high value cards, buyers have great memories and will see the buyer trying to sell the card again that they sniped back to themselves? How many times can they do this before their account simply gets banned?
Snipe shilling makes absolutely no sense.
He slammed no one and as I said, some of the info shown is very convincing, but guarantees nothing. My comment was made after other members first began putting out some names. I did not specifically call anyone out, and made my statement as guidance moving forward.
If you have a problem with my statements moving forward, please feel free to reach out to me via PM. I prefer not to be challenged publicly in a thread. Other members have messaged me, and I believe that we have had some constructive discussions. I am willing to see multiple sides of a discussion, and I have no interest in being known as a "hammer" on these forums, but it is part of my job with PSA to moderate these boards. Thank you for understanding.
[Aside to Isabella] That's well said.
Andy
These paranoiac threads on shilling and sniping usually run a predictable course with predictable comments, yet always remain wildly entertaining, especially if and when Dpeck decides to engage and offer up a free education. He is always articulate and able to express (with a patience that I don't have) exactly why many of the preconceived notions about auctions and sniping and shilling are mistaken. I get it, though, that most people are already firmly in one camp or the other, and it's really no skin off of my back how people choose to participate on the platforms in acquiring their collectibles. So, as they say, "You do you".
I just enjoy the show.
Carry on...
First of all if the goal is to cover your tracks one bid vs. a number of bids is obviously a better course of action. The notion that a snipe has to be your best bid is simply wrong. There is a flurry of activity at the end on many auctions and in many cases three or four snipes go off and probably some don't go off at all. If the goal is to protect your investment and not let a card sell for less than you want entering a final bid at a desired level insures your card doesn't sell for less than that number. Essentially a hidden reserve.
There are probably plenty of examples where the consignor is not even the under bidder and their attempt at protecting their investment wasn't even needed and there are probably plenty more where they are the under bidder and in some cases obviously the winner. I personally have never sold a card through anyone other than myself and I am one of the few collectors that actually run $0.99 cent auctions from time to time in wrestling cards and it can be very stressful watching a card languish for days and going into the final moments just hoping two snipes launch and collide at higher levels. This same stress obviously exists in the larger consignment auctions and now you can potentially use your own EBAY account, a friends, a business partner, your wife's etc. to ensure you don't get hosed on the final price.
There are plenty of cards that you have an easier time predicting a final selling price on that are more liquid so obviously there is no need to do something like this there but if you have a card that is more a niche card and you really need two or three collectors battling it out if just one of those collectors isn't involved the card can sell for substantially less than it otherwise would. Launching a final bid to protect the card from selling at a much lower level is a rational strategy. There are probably plenty of examples where a card is just not moving because as it seems all of the "smart" collectors refuse to bid on cards until the end and therefore a seller could panic and go this route when they had no intentions of shilling their card to begin with. I have seen over the years countless cards not get paid for and show up a month or two later and they let the card fly again. Lets say you have a business partner and one person consigns the card and the other protects it and wins. Big deal. You pay the consignment fees of say 10% but the card might have sold for 30% less than you wanted. Your out only 10% vs. 30%. You can come up with all kinds of scenarios where the math works.
The big risk of the traditional shill methods is people are hip to them and drop out of an auction if they think something is array and either stop bidding or retract a bid. You can't retract a snipe so their work is done and no one suspected anything. This stuff happens all of the time right under your nose but because the "smart" money only snipes they are now the "smart" money too.
now lets go snippping !!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
Big deal. You pay the consignment fees of say 10% but the card might have sold for 30% less than you wanted. Your out only 10% vs. 30%. You can come up with all kinds of scenarios where the math works.
So they eat the 10%, relist, and what happens if the bids come in even lower this time? Do they eat another 10%? Seems kind of risky.
I know of an example where the card was relisted a year later and sold for double. It doesn't take many of those to make up for a few bad ones.
There are loads of dealers out there that spend big money getting cards reviewed. Sometimes they win and sometimes they lose but if you win the aggregate that is all that matters.
Same thing here.
It depends on how much money you have. If you are rich, then shilling is a joke, and it won't matter.
I could see that for the very top end cards (like Michael Jordan 1986 Fleer PSA 10s). Though I doubt those type of cards need shilling in the first place.
But I doubt anyone is going to "snipe shill" a sub-$1000 card which is the majority of sales on feeBay to "maybe" recoup $100 more dollars a year later.
The OP is worried about getting shilled on $50 worth of cards.
Shilling can and does take place at all price levels.
It certainly takes place on $1,000 cards. The card I mentioned above was just a little over $500 that I referenced I purchased at a later date.
A michael jordan precious metal green popped off for $350,000 in February on ebay. Think there wasn't some shilling on that?😉
Wasn't that a Probstein or PWCC? I remember they had to approve bidders or something like that.
The under bidder bid 29 times on the item. Interesting they have not bid on a single item since. Like you said if your rich shilling doesn't matter. The winner is RICH!
https://www.ebay.com/bfl/viewbids/352592905173?item=352592905173&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565
It was a pwcc. Yes, you have to get permission to bid with stuff that valuable.
This is not entirely true. It was listed initially with no restraints and people were shilling it up like they did the Strasburg super refactor years ago so they canceled the listing and started it over with approved bidders only.
I would imagine going forward they will make sure on items with this much potential they do only allow pre approved bidders to avoid a similar situation.
I have never seen COMC use the auction format. For some reason, they only do buy it now.
OMG
They have 5,420,983 listings on EBAY.
Zero auctions.
I'm just waiting for the day that I get hit with a reserve not met. It hasn't happened yet, but I just know its coming. I have heard stories about it. To sit there and wait DAYS for an auction to end, thinking you've won, just to have it snatched away. Im not sure how the reserve not met thing works exactly though.
I don't know if you are being serious or not but if so you will know that an auction has a reserve and you will know once it has been met. It clearly states when you bid. Most listings don't use a reserve because it is expensive in terms of fees and a lot of bidders shy away from them. Hence why there are lots of straight auctions with hidden reserves.
Yes, I have heard that sometimes the seller doesn't reveal that there is a reserve until the auction is over. I didn't know if it was true or not. As a matter of fact I have been worried about that because there is an auction on ebay that ends in 30 minutes that I am bidding in, and the card is very rare, but the bids are low. I was worried the seller might not want to sell it for the winning bid, if it is too low.
I have heard of situations where a seller will back out of a transaction and say the item is lost or stolen and cancel the transaction because they aren't satisfied with the selling price. Good luck with your item. Go to watchcount.com and type in the item number and see how many people are watching it. It might be a situation where it is under the radar or it might be a situation where the snipes will fire off and it won't go for as low as you think it might.
http://www.watchcount.com/
I'm headed over to ebay right now to get ready for the final showdown. I hope the seller doesn't pull any shenanigans on me if I win. These auctions are always very tense when they are ending. I just know the snipers are out there waiting. The adrenaline always kicks in near the end. I'm heading out. Have a great evening, and wish me luck!
(sniper fire in the distance)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
To be completely honest, lots of people on here would really like to know your eBay id.
OK, this is heading in a direction that I don't think shows a lot of promise, so I am going to lock it down. The takeaway from this discussion, I believe, is that shilling is an unfortunate part of the hobby, but there are ways to limit the amount that it can affect you.