How accurate is PCGS Price Guide to..........
Soldi
Posts: 2,177 ✭✭✭✭✭
Please tell me how accurate is PCGS coin prices to anything a dealer has i.e. greysheet, or recent coin auction compilation
(which I forgot the acronym for) on the internet?
Seems to me pricing that a dealer has is always 20 % in back of "bid" or most recent auction price which results in a buyer at auction paying twice 2x wholesale.
i.e. somewhat better date coins or very nice for the grade coins in AU 55 to MS 65+
If you tell me it depends upon the coin, unless it's rare like i.e. 1799 to 1803 gold eagles in AU 50 or above, I am talking better date silver coins like 93-S 89 cc Morgan, 1921 SLQ, 1923-S SLQ nice coins for the grade.
It just seems to me those numbers on PCGS Price Guide, although they go up and down, are very inflated.
Thank you for any kind, non sarcastic or vague it all depends answers please site an example.
Comments
Guides are just another opinion... Use them to ballpark a price...but use several and also use recent auction results... do a composite, then go with your gut.. sometimes you will get a deal, sometimes you will want it so much, you will overpay. Such is life my friend, but it beats the alternative. Cheers, RickO
Went to a small show today and it seemed a lot of folks were using full price guide. Needless to say; I brought a sizeable amount of money to buy and left with the same amount. There are some types that the guide is off on in the other direction though; but couldn’t really find any of those coins at the show
There are some shows I go to where the inventories of many dealers never change. Either they’re into their inventory real deep and can’t afford to take less, or they don’t care because they’re only there to kibbitz and do dealer to dealer deals.
Cheers
Bob
Seems to me the guide is typically 50% above greysheet bid. I've had no problems finding the coins I want to buy at the bid.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
coins are not commodities and each coin is unique
I use current auction pricing. Just remember, you're going to pay more for a nice coin for the grade than for an ugly coin for the grade. This, however, has no bearing on whether you will get this premium (and maybe more) back when you sell. It's a problem in the business right now; any honest dealer will tell you as much.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I was watching the live Heritage Auction last week and I noticed something about auction prices. Most the coins without CAC stickers went for half the PCGS price. Those with CAC stickers went slightly above the PCGS price. Probably a good reason the get your coins stickered if you are going to auction them
Overland Trail Collection Showcase
Dahlonega Type Set-2008 PCGS Best Exhibited Set
This argument makes no sense to me. I don't understand how dealers are going to be able to make a living trying to get $500 for a coin that other dealers are selling for $400 (assume a widget). I don't care how much they have invested in the coin, if they sell it for $400 and buy others for $300 to resell at $400, they'll eventually get their money back. If they hold it with a $500 asking price, they never will. Isn't turnover the name of the game for dealers?
You've got a lot of dealers who aren't trying to make a living. They are weekend dealers or retired.
I have coins on eBay right now at full retail and I will never take less for them, even if retail drops. Why? Because I paid what I paid and I like the coin enough to hold it for 10 years. On the other hand, I sell "mistakes" for less than I paid all the time. But, again, I'm not a full time dealer and I'm not trying to make a living doing it.
I almost never use the PCGS price guide. I don't think it is accurate to the market.
You also have to be careful about using auction results. You need to look at ALL auction results, not just the highest price. You also need to consider what the economics are of the auction. A Signature auction at a FUN show will not show the same results as a Tuesday night Heritage or Sunday night GC auction.
Every person who brings me coins has looked them up on eBay and circled the highest price paid and then wants like 90% of that number. Well, 90% of that number is what I would get IF I get the highest price paid on eBay. So, sell it yourself and see what you net. LOL.
The only part of that post that was intended to make sense was the latter.
I find PCGS MV very accurate /reliable and it is a major consideration in my asking price on PCGS material. I downloaded my Pcgs inv mgr to excel spreadsheet recently. On the individual Holder I have a code for cost, bid, and MV. I have had no problem getting TPG MV or CPG on many online sales.
However cost plus and CPG (CDN bid based) are other factors for me in pricing coins. My goal is a 30 pct margin or somewhere between cost and retail (MV). At a show I may discount certain coins to say bid plus 10 pct. Because I have an online store some items may be blown out usually starting at say 90-95 pct bid. If dose not sell relisted sometimes a bit less start.
5c on the dollar is not going to cut it in the coin business. One should note cave to pressure from buyers give away their nicest material or for that matter period. I remember some of us joking in banter on the bourse at a recent show setup at “does anybody actually make a living in this business.”
Many who have income from other sources like myself realize current market conditions but are not going to take anything less than their price on their better material or negative performance.
At shows many coming in the door are broke or simply looking for a rip. Realistic buyers and sellers may use TPG price as a basis in their buy / sell and I want to be aware of this. In a conversation with a sharp vest pocket trader I have known for years we were discussing a fellow offering NGC mod Commems to dealers offering at 60 pct TPG PG. He said “that’s not a deal (for you as a dealer) 40 pct would probably be.” I agreed based on selling these on eBay (tough get MV, retail).
The more room dealer has to negotiate between cost and MV the more likely he may decide discount item in moving it quickly in that range or quick flip on big ticket coin.
This is how to use the "guide" at a show.
If it is something you really want there is no price guide except for maybe your wife.
Lafayette Grading Set
But what if it’s a pop 1
the GreySheet tends to be wholesale.
the PCGS Price Guide tends to be retail.
Auctions tend to be "Real World" at the moment of sale with the people bidding.
Dealer Show prices tend to reflect the "market" as they know it.
i hate this no edit BS, please fix it, pronto.
keets' comments are probably pretty accurate. The difference in this day and age is the "wholesale" and "retail"
definitions are really overlapping with all the available information available to the hobby.
For saints, it's pretty darn accurate.
As for other coins, I have no idea.
PCGS straight grade price is for a solid coin of that grade. (B level)
The plus is premium price where you get toners, & A level coins.
CAC is often a bit over PCGS + price.
(CAC is suppose to be A & B but he's pretty tight on saints for some reason)
My Saint Set
Keep in mind that if you are buying pre-civil war US coins AS A COLLECTOR and you want strong for the grade examples, buying at retail pricing is usually just the starting level, you commonly must pay much more to get quality. If you are paying wholesale or just above as a collector for pre-civil war coins, you are very likely not buying a strong for the grade coin. If somehow you are, you are getting a steal. Many auction records for many auction houses are mostly a record of C and D coins for the grade. The A and B coins are typically again, much higher in price. Hence, each coin has its own price and any price guide is only just that, a guide.
So I am always surprised when folks say they refuse to buy at 'guide' and want to pay much less. Many times, I only wish I could buy at guide and not more........ I was lucky enough to just pay 'guide' for a great A+ coin this week, which was mostly 15-30% above auction records for the same coin. A dealer paid 5% short of 'guide' to get it for me from another dealer, then only charged me 5% extra. This is how it goes for the great coins.
Best, SH
I use the price guide only to rank different years of a particular coin. It is a good indicator of common dates.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Keets comments are pretty accurate in my opinion. The PCGS price guide is 20% to 50% higher than real world prices. The Grey Sheet tends to be a few bucks high on most issues on real life experiences. The best barometer is a fair auction price on most issues, but on widgets, E-Bay sold prices on the same coin, grade and holder is the very best tool currently.
I think Keets sums it up real good.
At a show I am there to move the coin based on my take on the market and positive result with the buyer (it could be $5 over cost lol).
I finally downloaded (had to copy / paste, edit) their inventory manager to excel and then got it how I want. Additions / deletions will be performed on both as I have Pcgs registry (inventory) on phone.