Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Jules always loved to obtain different die states of the coins, especially the latest die states. So you could often see multiple examples of a die marriage in differing states.
I didn't know that Jules was that much into the late die states. I remember that he obtained one of the two very rare 1800 half dime marriages. A dealer bought the coin off the Worthy Coin bid wall in Boston. It was a simply terrible coin in my opinion because the obverse die had almost totally failed leaving little of the design. The piece was attributable, however.
Later another, much nicer, example of the same variety appeared on the Worthy Board. The elder Romano, who had started Worthy Coin, was an active buyer in the 1930s and ‘40s and had a number of such treasures hidden away it his seemingly endless inventory.
I contacted Jules about the coin, but he didn’t have any interest in it because he had obtained the first one.
Although I have had a strong interest in the early half dimes for over 50 years, I was out too. My collection has been limited to the “Red Book” listings. The trouble is when every coin cost more than $1,000, there was only so much that I could buy in those days. This was more than 30 years ago. Gee, am I really that old?
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Only if you are buying stolen coins that someone wants to fence cheap. I got to meet him when I was over exhibits at the 1986 ANA Mid-Winter show. Great guy that would talk to you about whatever you wanted to ask. He reminded me of Teddy Roosevelt without the stick. He was a very methodical collector - told me he could have bought the unique 1911 Canadian Dollar in silver that isn't in a museum for $10K, but it wasn't something he wanted because it wasn't a real coin. He had a mint bag of 1948 Canadian dimes that at the time were worth $100+ each. Sharp man, and president of the CNA, ANA and SNM the same year - 1962.
The answer depends on the fate of the rare coin market. At current levels, I would say no. If prices depreciate significantly as plausibly could happen then there may be another Pittman.
@cameonut2011 said:
The answer depends on the fate of the rare coin market. At current levels, I would say no. If prices depreciate significantly as plausibly could happen then there may be another Pittman.
I've been waiting for someone to mention this possibility. Certainly this is one way that could open the door for another Pittman (although I am bullish that the rarest coins will continue to go up in a price)
The closest to Pittman seems to be Ford. His collection seems to have been worth as much or even more than Pittman's if $14MM is correct and $30MM is not. I don't recall the content of his collection (only some of it) but as a long time dealer with presumably good connections, he should have been in a good position to maximize his financial returns.
The 1997 auction brought $14 million. The total of all 3 auctions was $30 million.
The $30MM was the total I recall but I didn't know there was more than one auction.
If the market completely eviscerates itself at some point it could easily happen. It would most likely be someone who has an intense love of the hobby as opposed to someone who thinks they're investing.
Not sure if I would trust a government indicator index AT ALL (LOL). I don't see 10k 1953 dollars being the equivalent to 271k nowadays. Maybe if you said 110 I might be a bit more susceptible to belief.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
@7Jaguars said:
Not sure if I would trust a government indicator index AT ALL (LOL). I don't see 10k 1953 dollars being the equivalent to 271k nowadays. Maybe if you said 110 I might be a bit more susceptible to belief.
@WCC said:
My prediction is that, adjusted for price changes, longer term most coins will be losing value with the most relatively overpriced for the numismatic merits mostly performing the worst. If this happens, there probably aren't going to be many coins proportionately that will turn out to be big winners where the financial return will be meaningful.
You can definitely make money on coins as certain areas will go up but you have to be very astute and very disciplined.
Most people disagree with my financial outlook for a reason I won't go into here. Under the conditions I expect, what you are describing isn't impossible but about as likely as someone being long and making money in the stock market as the broader indices are crashing. If I wasn't clear, what I am describing isn't the "end of the world" as has been the rebuttal before but an extended period of much tighter financial conditions which cannot possibly be considered a positive for asset prices and this includes most coins.
@WCC said:
My prediction is that, adjusted for price changes, longer term most coins will be losing value with the most relatively overpriced for the numismatic merits mostly performing the worst. If this happens, there probably aren't going to be many coins proportionately that will turn out to be big winners where the financial return will be meaningful.
You can definitely make money on coins as certain areas will go up but you have to be very astute and very disciplined.
Most people disagree with my financial outlook for a reason I won't go into here. Under the conditions I expect, what you are describing isn't impossible but about as likely as someone being long and making money in the stock market as the broader indices are crashing.
Making money while the broader indices are crashing is actually quite common. Think contrarians, selling short, George Soros, etc.
If I wasn't clear, what I am describing isn't the "end of the world" as has been the rebuttal before but an extended period of much tighter financial conditions which cannot possibly be considered a positive for asset prices and this includes most coins.
Using the approach I describe today, you cannot focus on things that are already mature. You need to understand trends and buy into the trend in an area that isn't mature today but will mature as your collection nears completion.
@Proofmorgan said:
I don’t think it’s possible. The Information age has leveled the playing field where extreme hard work and determination do not go as far as they used to. The requirements to view lots is simple as logging on and looking at extremely accurate photos (in most cases).
Back Then, one had to travel and spend the time....and know how to grade. Now the work is all done for you (for the most part)....just decide what you’re willing to pay. There are very few stones unturned and you can bid on and see lots from across the globe.
Think about it:
Then: bidding on raw coins in various locations where you have to travel far and wide to see the lots on hand. Auction catalogs had poor or no photos and descriptions were not very detailed. You had to mail bid or show up in person.
Now: Bidding on certified graded coins that are double certified (CAC). All market values and past sales are available. Catalogs are digital and well represented. Photos are very high quality. Bidding can occur in real time from your phone at any location.
Ian can confirm that record sales numbers are made with GC and some winners never seeing the coin in hand. Purchases are made off photos with a limited description.
Not to say that hard work and determination do not go far....but nothing compared to before.
It isn't just a matter of the playing field being leveled but the astronomically inflated US price level of the currently more expensive and most preferred coins. Those that are (more) affordable to a substantial proportion or most of the collector base overwhelmingly lack the collectible merits to realize outsized returns which will concurrently be financially meaningful.
@7Jaguars said:
Not sure if I would trust a government indicator index AT ALL (LOL). I don't see 10k 1953 dollars being the equivalent to 271k nowadays. Maybe if you said 110 I might be a bit more susceptible to belief.
@cameonut2011 said:
The answer depends on the fate of the rare coin market. At current levels, I would say no. If prices depreciate significantly as plausibly could happen then there may be another Pittman.
I've been waiting for someone to mention this possibility. Certainly this is one way that could open the door for another Pittman (although I am bullish that the rarest coins will continue to go up in a price)
Which coins do you define as the rarest? I ask because if it is predominantly the most expensive US (and many other) coinage concurrently in the highest grades, these are already among if not the most overpriced. To anticipate a potential response, I am aware that the currently wealthy buyers who buy it are both able and willing to do so now. My prediction is that most of them will both be a lot poorer and be far less willing to do so later, though it depends upon the timeframe you or someone else has in mind.
That's a pretty healthy salary. Today, execs at that level can get 25% to 100% annual cash bonuses plus stock depending on the company.
I agree , that's why i used 250K - 500K in initial post . Even at 500K salary with all perks included 1 heck of a feat to accomplish. To put together a 60 - 90 million dollar ( adjusted for price increases from 1997/1998 ) collection is something i do not think is doable today .
U.S. rare coins have just maxed out in value . Just like other asset classes ( real-estate , stocks , etc ) it is also in a bubble stage . Not possible to get that kind of price appreciation for collectors buying coins today .
Agree U.S. rare coin market is pretty strong. I'm constantly amazed by how much money is still in the market, especially at the top end.
@BryceM said:
If the market completely eviscerates itself at some point it could easily happen. It would most likely be someone who has an intense love of the hobby as opposed to someone who thinks they're investing.
It would have to be like what has happened to rare stamp market or vintage baseball card market . Certain "type" vintage baseball cards can be had for 20% ( 1/5 ) of what they were going for at the height of the market .
I do believe high grade generic type coins( MS barber , seated , etc ) are heading that way , but the downward spiral will not be overnight . Too may collectors leaving not enough new ones coming in . Easy to see.
If the scenario you state happened (and I dont agree) , it would not open a door to another Pittman--Pittman did not have a great collection by collecting "high grade generic type coins"
@WCC said:
My prediction is that, adjusted for price changes, longer term most coins will be losing value with the most relatively overpriced for the numismatic merits mostly performing the worst. If this happens, there probably aren't going to be many coins proportionately that will turn out to be big winners where the financial return will be meaningful.
You can definitely make money on coins as certain areas will go up but you have to be very astute and very disciplined.
Most people disagree with my financial outlook for a reason I won't go into here. Under the conditions I expect, what you are describing isn't impossible but about as likely as someone being long and making money in the stock market as the broader indices are crashing.
Making money while the broader indices are crashing is actually quite common. Think contrarians, selling short, George Soros, etc.
If I wasn't clear, what I am describing isn't the "end of the world" as has been the rebuttal before but an extended period of much tighter financial conditions which cannot possibly be considered a positive for asset prices and this includes most coins.
Using the approach I describe today, you cannot focus on things that are already mature. You need to understand trends and buy into the trend an area that isn't mature today but will mature as your collection nears completion.
I have discussed this with you before and I am aware of your point. I can't speak to exonumia or currency but I can absolutely do so for world coinage. There are a lot of US collectors who seem to believe that the US experience can be replicated elsewhere to materially close or even eliminate the price gap. Since there are in the vicinity of 200 countries and each one has many series, the specifics will vary.
Since the US has the biggest, most liquid and most financialized coin market on the planet, the starting point in making this determination should be understanding what characteristics does the US have and to what extent does this exist elsewhere. Where it doesn't exist, what is going to realistically change to make it happen? Or is it going to be primarily US collectors who will also create an (even more) inflated price level elsewhere? I have yet to read any explanation with specifics that would lead me to believe it is a realistic possibility.
Also, since you apparently aren't aware of or disagree with my financial outlook, that's possibly another reason you appear to have a difference of opinion.
@WCC said:
My prediction is that, adjusted for price changes, longer term most coins will be losing value with the most relatively overpriced for the numismatic merits mostly performing the worst. If this happens, there probably aren't going to be many coins proportionately that will turn out to be big winners where the financial return will be meaningful.
You can definitely make money on coins as certain areas will go up but you have to be very astute and very disciplined.
Most people disagree with my financial outlook for a reason I won't go into here. Under the conditions I expect, what you are describing isn't impossible but about as likely as someone being long and making money in the stock market as the broader indices are crashing.
Making money while the broader indices are crashing is actually quite common. Think contrarians, selling short, George Soros, etc.
If I wasn't clear, what I am describing isn't the "end of the world" as has been the rebuttal before but an extended period of much tighter financial conditions which cannot possibly be considered a positive for asset prices and this includes most coins.
Using the approach I describe today, you cannot focus on things that are already mature. You need to understand trends and buy into the trend an area that isn't mature today but will mature as your collection nears completion.
I have discussed this with you before and I am aware of your point. I can't speak to exonumia or currency but I can absolutely do so for world coinage. There are a lot of US collectors who seem to believe that the US experience can be replicated elsewhere to materially close or even eliminate the price gap. Since there are in the vicinity of 200 countries and each one has many series, the specifics will vary.
Since the US has the biggest, most liquid and most financialized coin market on the planet, the starting point in making this determination should be understanding what characteristics does the US have and to what extent does this exist elsewhere. Where it doesn't exist, what is going to realistically change to make it happen? Or is it going to be primarily US collectors who will also create an (even more) inflated price level elsewhere? I have yet to read any explanation with specifics that would lead me to believe it is a realistic possibility.
Also, since you apparently aren't aware of or disagree with my financial outlook, that's possibly another reason you appear to have a difference of opinion.
I'm aware of your financial outlook and I actually agree with it in general but since so many people are already saying the market is dying, I don't feel like I need to say the same so I'm trying to shine a bit of light for people, even if it may not be what they normally collect. I agree the market will shrink and prices will go lower for the vast majority of coins. I'm surprised by how high I think some common coins are trading at today. There are positive areas and I prefer to focus on that.
Regarding other markets, I don't think US collectors will generally create very strong prices in other countries, I believe it is native collectors in those countries who become materially more wealthy and gain disposable income that will cause coins for those countries to rise. I also don't think we need to look at anywhere near 200 countries. After WWII, the US was the disproportionate economic leader, so we only need to look at candidates for that position going forward, and there aren't many. For example, today China has the 2nd largest GDP overall, but is still behind the US and with a much lower GDP per capita. Imagine what the world will be like when the GDP per capita reaches equilibrium for the two countries, which still won't be for many years, if ever. Today, Chinese collectors are already advancing and, of note, PCGS even slabs many of their coin club medals, where they don't for US coin clubs. Their coin clubs are growing and ours are, dare I say, shrinking?
Which coins do you define as the rarest? I ask because if it is predominantly the most expensive US (and many other) coinage concurrently in the highest grades, these are already among if not the most overpriced. To anticipate a potential response, I am aware that the currently wealthy buyers who buy it are both able and willing to do so now. My prediction is that most of them will both be a lot poorer and be far less willing to do so later, though it depends upon the timeframe you or someone else has in mind.
I agree with your prediction for the simple fact that at some point in time the political leaders will have to deal with the deficit/debt .
It will come a time where they will have to stop kicking the can down the road .
The fantasy that you can lower anyones taxes and somehow through wishful thinking the debt will not go up is a scam .A tried and proven one .
The truth is everyone's taxes have to go up to start to deal with the govt obligations .
At that point everyone will indeed have less $ .That will definitely affect coin collecting and coin values . That day will come .
I agree with you but I see your example as one aspect of the problem. The biggest bubble today is the credit bubble. It is a mega bubble which is much bigger than the current and prior stock market bubbles or those in other assets such as real estate.
I'll be the first to admit that I never conceived that it could last to this point or this long. Concurrently, the background conditions which are described as the "economic fundamentals" continue to get worse, despite misleading economic indicators such as GDP growth which are a very poor measure of economic well being. Most people are at best treading water economically and the only reason they can even manage that is because of perpetually increasing debt. No one not even any government can ensure perpetually artificially cheap credit to enable most people to live beyond their means.
@WCC said:
My prediction is that, adjusted for price changes, longer term most coins will be losing value with the most relatively overpriced for the numismatic merits mostly performing the worst. If this happens, there probably aren't going to be many coins proportionately that will turn out to be big winners where the financial return will be meaningful.
You can definitely make money on coins as certain areas will go up but you have to be very astute and very disciplined.
Most people disagree with my financial outlook for a reason I won't go into here. Under the conditions I expect, what you are describing isn't impossible but about as likely as someone being long and making money in the stock market as the broader indices are crashing.
Making money while the broader indices are crashing is actually quite common. Think contrarians, selling short, George Soros, etc.
If I wasn't clear, what I am describing isn't the "end of the world" as has been the rebuttal before but an extended period of much tighter financial conditions which cannot possibly be considered a positive for asset prices and this includes most coins.
Using the approach I describe today, you cannot focus on things that are already mature. You need to understand trends and buy into the trend an area that isn't mature today but will mature as your collection nears completion.
I have discussed this with you before and I am aware of your point. I can't speak to exonumia or currency but I can absolutely do so for world coinage. There are a lot of US collectors who seem to believe that the US experience can be replicated elsewhere to materially close or even eliminate the price gap. Since there are in the vicinity of 200 countries and each one has many series, the specifics will vary.
Since the US has the biggest, most liquid and most financialized coin market on the planet, the starting point in making this determination should be understanding what characteristics does the US have and to what extent does this exist elsewhere. Where it doesn't exist, what is going to realistically change to make it happen? Or is it going to be primarily US collectors who will also create an (even more) inflated price level elsewhere? I have yet to read any explanation with specifics that would lead me to believe it is a realistic possibility.
Also, since you apparently aren't aware of or disagree with my financial outlook, that's possibly another reason you appear to have a difference of opinion.
Regarding other markets, I don't think the vast majority of US collectors will create that in other countries, I believe it is native collectors in those countries who become materially more wealthy and gain disposable income that will cause coins for those countries to rise. For example, today China has the 2nd largest GDP overall, but is still behind the US and with a much lower GDP per capita. Imagine what the world will be like when the GDP per capita reaches equilibrium for the two countries, which still won't be for many years. Today, already Chinese collectors are advancing and, of note, PCGS even slabs many of their coin club medals, where they don't for US coin clubs.
There isn't a proven correlation between increased wealth and coin collecting; only from the existing collector population but not the population generally. Some or a high level of affluence is a necessary precondition but it has no predictive value because having more wealth won't in and of itself make someone want to collect coins or for that matter anything else. Many collectors believe it since it has a superficial plausibility but it is easily disproven by looking at growth rates and available wealth in any country anyone wants to choose. Large numbers in the developing world are able to collect to the same financial level as many members here, they just prefer to spend their money otherwise.
China is one which I think has better prospects but that's mostly because they seem to have a habit of being willing to speculate in practically everything. I don't know how much real collecting occurs there but they definitely have the culture to create a coin market bubble.
Generally though, the supply of the better coins and the corresponding market value is so pitifully low that it should be apparent that the limited existing collecting is not due to a lack of wealth or income. To take an example I know very well, I estimate that the value of all better South African coins is currently probably in the vicinity of $30MM to $50MM. This country has more scale than most yet this amount is the same or less versus a single Heritage Signature auction. It is financially irrelevant especially considering that an outsized proportion of the better coinage is not available for sale and cannot be bought except at "stupid money" prices.
@WCC said:
My prediction is that, adjusted for price changes, longer term most coins will be losing value with the most relatively overpriced for the numismatic merits mostly performing the worst. If this happens, there probably aren't going to be many coins proportionately that will turn out to be big winners where the financial return will be meaningful.
You can definitely make money on coins as certain areas will go up but you have to be very astute and very disciplined.
Most people disagree with my financial outlook for a reason I won't go into here. Under the conditions I expect, what you are describing isn't impossible but about as likely as someone being long and making money in the stock market as the broader indices are crashing.
Making money while the broader indices are crashing is actually quite common. Think contrarians, selling short, George Soros, etc.
If I wasn't clear, what I am describing isn't the "end of the world" as has been the rebuttal before but an extended period of much tighter financial conditions which cannot possibly be considered a positive for asset prices and this includes most coins.
Using the approach I describe today, you cannot focus on things that are already mature. You need to understand trends and buy into the trend an area that isn't mature today but will mature as your collection nears completion.
I have discussed this with you before and I am aware of your point. I can't speak to exonumia or currency but I can absolutely do so for world coinage. There are a lot of US collectors who seem to believe that the US experience can be replicated elsewhere to materially close or even eliminate the price gap. Since there are in the vicinity of 200 countries and each one has many series, the specifics will vary.
Since the US has the biggest, most liquid and most financialized coin market on the planet, the starting point in making this determination should be understanding what characteristics does the US have and to what extent does this exist elsewhere. Where it doesn't exist, what is going to realistically change to make it happen? Or is it going to be primarily US collectors who will also create an (even more) inflated price level elsewhere? I have yet to read any explanation with specifics that would lead me to believe it is a realistic possibility.
Also, since you apparently aren't aware of or disagree with my financial outlook, that's possibly another reason you appear to have a difference of opinion.
Regarding other markets, I don't think the vast majority of US collectors will create that in other countries, I believe it is native collectors in those countries who become materially more wealthy and gain disposable income that will cause coins for those countries to rise. For example, today China has the 2nd largest GDP overall, but is still behind the US and with a much lower GDP per capita. Imagine what the world will be like when the GDP per capita reaches equilibrium for the two countries, which still won't be for many years. Today, already Chinese collectors are advancing and, of note, PCGS even slabs many of their coin club medals, where they don't for US coin clubs.
There isn't a proven correlation between increased wealth and coin collecting; only from the existing collector population but not the population generally. Some or a high level of affluence is a necessary precondition but it has no predictive value because having more wealth won't in and of itself make someone want to collect coins or for that matter anything else. Many collectors believe it since it has a superficial plausibility but it is easily disproven by looking at growth rates and available wealth in any country anyone wants to choose. Large numbers in the developing world are able to collect to the same financial level as many members here, they just prefer to spend their money otherwise.
China is one which I think has better prospects but that's mostly because they seem to have a habit of being willing to speculate in practically everything. I don't know how much real collecting occurs there but they definitely have the culture to create a coin market bubble.
Generally though, the supply of the better coins and the corresponding market value is so pitifully low that it should be apparent that the limited existing collecting is not due to a lack of wealth or income. To take an example I know very well, I estimate that the value of all better South African coins is currently probably in the vicinity of $30MM to $50MM. This country has more scale than most yet this amount is the same or less versus a single Heritage Signature auction. It is financially irrelevant especially considering that an outsized proportion of the better coinage is not available for sale and cannot be bought except at "stupid money" prices.
Would you say the South African coin market is very mature then? If so, there may not be a lot of opportunity there for appreciation. South Africa is also a very unequal country in terms of wealth distribution, the most according to the World Bank last year, which may also affect the high prices of their prized coins.
For collectors outside of the country, things that may contribute to the maturation fo the South African coin market is language and lineage. The country may attract US collectors because the it shares a language and parent country with the US. Language may shield Chinese and other markets from US collectors and allow those markets to mature at a slower rate. If you cannot understand what a coin says, you are less likely to collect it.
Where it doesn't exist, what is going to realistically change to make it happen? Or is it going to be primarily US collectors who will also create an (even more) inflated price level elsewhere? I have yet to read any explanation with specifics that would lead me to believe it is a realistic possibility.
And by the same token you don't see the possibility that more than a billion Indians might put a lot of demand on Indian coins as countless millions enter the middle class over the coming decades.
I've never understood your thinking. Coins up thousands of fold just aren't financially significant!!!
What exactly does it take to change the world or be significant?
Another thought for you . If you were collecting coins in the 40's and 50's and had simply put away every MS 67 type coin you could> @Boosibri said:
Anyone care to suggest the opportunities that exist for Pittman type returns 30yrs from today?
There are certainly many possibilities in world coins, paper money and exonumia. But for US coins, you would have to be on the fringes, it would probably involve mostly inexpensive coins, and it would take a ton of work. Probably only worth that much effort if you're really having fun at it.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@Gazes said:
Right now we are watching a collector try to equal or best the Eliasberg collection. My question is it possible in this day that another collector equal Pittman? In other words, can a collector with a regular job and limited means (which was how I would describe Pittman) build a world class collection that will be remembered years from now? At first blush, I think most would say no. However, Pittman took chances (put a 2nd mortgage on his home), was incredibly knowledgeable and made good contacts---all virtues that are timeless.
Hmm... As the other poster referenced, $10k in 1940 was about $180k in inflation adjusted dollars today or $270k for $15k in 1940. That isn't a regular job and limited means especially during a depression.
@Gazes said:
Right now we are watching a collector try to equal or best the Eliasberg collection. My question is it possible in this day that another collector equal Pittman? In other words, can a collector with a regular job and limited means (which was how I would describe Pittman) build a world class collection that will be remembered years from now? At first blush, I think most would say no. However, Pittman took chances (put a 2nd mortgage on his home), was incredibly knowledgeable and made good contacts---all virtues that are timeless.
Hmm... As the other poster referenced, $10k in 1940 was about $180k in inflation adjusted dollars today or $270k for $15k in 1940. That isn't a regular job and limited means especially during a depression.
I think you are nitpicking now. I think the OP was asking whether someone that was not a billionaire or wealth that is not attainable could duplicate a collection like Pittman. Yes, Pittman had a very good job just like a job today of $175,000 is very good. The point is that it is not an unreachable goal. Over 5% of the population makes $175,000. We have over 300 million people in this country. You get the idea.
@Gazes said:
if it makes you feel better ---can someone making $175,000 today equal Pittman's collection....
If you make 175k average for 40 years and are single with no kids and live on a budget you would have about 2 to 3 million to spend on coins and almost nothing else. I mean you would have to live on the cheap
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Where it doesn't exist, what is going to realistically change to make it happen? Or is it going to be primarily US collectors who will also create an (even more) inflated price level elsewhere? I have yet to read any explanation with specifics that would lead me to believe it is a realistic possibility.
And by the same token you don't see the possibility that more than a billion Indians might put a lot of demand on Indian coins as countless millions enter the middle class over the coming decades.
I've never understood your thinking. Coins up thousands of fold just aren't financially significant!!!
What exactly does it take to change the world or be significant?
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
I have already told you that India's population increases the possibility of a noticeable market measured by the number of collectors as a function of pure random chance. That is exactly what it is absent another explanation which you have never provided in any our discussions. No matter how many times I demonstrate to you that there is no demonstrated causation between income or wealth and collecting, you keep on bringing this point up repeatedly.
There is no shortage of people with the financial capacity to collect to the same level as most collectors do here. This is a fact, not an opinion. It is equally true in India just as it is in South Africa which is why I provided the estimate in my prior post.
Since you still apparently believe it now, I am going to ask you the same question I asked you before. They can afford it yet the price level proves they don't above very low numbers. If your point has any relevance, why aren't they doing so now?
@WCC said:
My prediction is that, adjusted for price changes, longer term most coins will be losing value with the most relatively overpriced for the numismatic merits mostly performing the worst. If this happens, there probably aren't going to be many coins proportionately that will turn out to be big winners where the financial return will be meaningful.
You can definitely make money on coins as certain areas will go up but you have to be very astute and very disciplined.
Most people disagree with my financial outlook for a reason I won't go into here. Under the conditions I expect, what you are describing isn't impossible but about as likely as someone being long and making money in the stock market as the broader indices are crashing.
Making money while the broader indices are crashing is actually quite common. Think contrarians, selling short, George Soros, etc.
If I wasn't clear, what I am describing isn't the "end of the world" as has been the rebuttal before but an extended period of much tighter financial conditions which cannot possibly be considered a positive for asset prices and this includes most coins.
Using the approach I describe today, you cannot focus on things that are already mature. You need to understand trends and buy into the trend an area that isn't mature today but will mature as your collection nears completion.
I have discussed this with you before and I am aware of your point. I can't speak to exonumia or currency but I can absolutely do so for world coinage. There are a lot of US collectors who seem to believe that the US experience can be replicated elsewhere to materially close or even eliminate the price gap. Since there are in the vicinity of 200 countries and each one has many series, the specifics will vary.
Since the US has the biggest, most liquid and most financialized coin market on the planet, the starting point in making this determination should be understanding what characteristics does the US have and to what extent does this exist elsewhere. Where it doesn't exist, what is going to realistically change to make it happen? Or is it going to be primarily US collectors who will also create an (even more) inflated price level elsewhere? I have yet to read any explanation with specifics that would lead me to believe it is a realistic possibility.
Also, since you apparently aren't aware of or disagree with my financial outlook, that's possibly another reason you appear to have a difference of opinion.
Regarding other markets, I don't think the vast majority of US collectors will create that in other countries, I believe it is native collectors in those countries who become materially more wealthy and gain disposable income that will cause coins for those countries to rise. For example, today China has the 2nd largest GDP overall, but is still behind the US and with a much lower GDP per capita. Imagine what the world will be like when the GDP per capita reaches equilibrium for the two countries, which still won't be for many years. Today, already Chinese collectors are advancing and, of note, PCGS even slabs many of their coin club medals, where they don't for US coin clubs.
There isn't a proven correlation between increased wealth and coin collecting; only from the existing collector population but not the population generally. Some or a high level of affluence is a necessary precondition but it has no predictive value because having more wealth won't in and of itself make someone want to collect coins or for that matter anything else. Many collectors believe it since it has a superficial plausibility but it is easily disproven by looking at growth rates and available wealth in any country anyone wants to choose. Large numbers in the developing world are able to collect to the same financial level as many members here, they just prefer to spend their money otherwise.
China is one which I think has better prospects but that's mostly because they seem to have a habit of being willing to speculate in practically everything. I don't know how much real collecting occurs there but they definitely have the culture to create a coin market bubble.
Generally though, the supply of the better coins and the corresponding market value is so pitifully low that it should be apparent that the limited existing collecting is not due to a lack of wealth or income. To take an example I know very well, I estimate that the value of all better South African coins is currently probably in the vicinity of $30MM to $50MM. This country has more scale than most yet this amount is the same or less versus a single Heritage Signature auction. It is financially irrelevant especially considering that an outsized proportion of the better coinage is not available for sale and cannot be bought except at "stupid money" prices.
Would you say the South African coin market is very mature then? If so, there may not be a lot of opportunity there for appreciation. South Africa is also a very unequal country in terms of wealth distribution, the most according to the World Bank last year, which may also affect the high prices of their prized coins.
For collectors outside of the country, things that may contribute to the maturation fo the South African coin market is language and lineage. The country may attract US collectors because the it shares a language and parent country with the US. Language may shield Chinese and other markets from US collectors and allow those markets to mature at a slower rate. If you cannot understand what a coin says, you are less likely to collect it.
No, it has nothing to do with it being a mature market. The reason I provided those estimates is because it should be apparent that $30MM, $50MM or whatever the actual amount is does not create any obstacle to higher prices. Many of the coins are not affordable to local collectors but there are still plenty of non-collectors who could collect and pay more if they wanted to do so. They just do not.
It is substantially the lack of interest in real collecting compared to the United States and other countries with long term numismatic traditions, even among prior coin buyers. That's why they had a bubble which imploded in 2011.
On your last paragraph, what you are describing are the cultural aspects and influences of collecting. I agree with this completely. This is the actual primary reason for the difference in the participation rate, the price level and the price structure. In South Africa, most of the economic disparity is with the majority black population. However, there are concurrently plenty of them who can also collect to the same financial level we do but there is no reason to believe they will ever have any affinity for the most preferred coinage there due to the prior Apartheid system.
there is just so much more money available today than even just 15 years ago. There are 100 startups now raising at 1 Billion USD valuation, 15 years ago there were maybe 3.
Maybe I dont know enough about Pittman, but I have all the Garrett auction catalogues and he tried to by the best quality in many cases + had many super rare or unique coins like the 1792 pattern in amazing conditions.
Thought #1. Most of the dealers who disliked him did so because of how JJP (reportedly) handled coin shows.
These gentleman said that JJP would come in at the start of a show and try to handle/ review the whole room all at once. If a dealer had something of interest, JJP would say something along the lines of "Would you hold that for me?". Then the great man would quickly move on in his quest to cover the room. And 95+% of the time, he would never come back. These coin dealers were not happy, and they soon learned to discount the great man's interest. They knew that they needed to be nice, but...
Thought #2: In the 1950s, the future was very bright for 80% of the American people. Although how the future would unfold was not known in advance, if you simply went to work five days a week, and delayed your partying until Friday and Saturday night, and then got up again on the next Monday to repeat your labors, you would eventually do very well. 'Strive and succeed' still worked in America.
That is certainly not the case today.
That is not the main reason(s), but it is a big reason why JJP cannot be repeated today.
can a collector with a regular job and limited means (which was how I would describe Pittman) build a world class collection that will be remembered years from now?
Yes, although it will have a narrow focus such as a single series. Wealth can change very quickly with the right company, even for those with "regular jobs". Microsoft and Amazon created thousands of multi-millionaires among the ranks, and shareholders who bought early - I know, they are driving up my property taxes!
Robert Scot: Engraving Liberty - biography of US Mint's first chief engraver
As I understand the question it is "can anyone today assemble a collection that sells for many times what he paid?".
To answer this question primarily requires a well honed and well-polished crystal ball. I've been working on mine and the only thing I'm sure of after so many years is that it's impossible to predict the future. Or more accurately all we can do is develop probabilities of what the future is apt to look like.
The real question is what will be sought by collectors in the future that is not now. Anything in demand now can not increase many fold to satisfy the real criteria of the question so it must be something below the radar.
I'm a generalist and was always looking for the rarities that might be in demand but on a shoestring budget I'd pass coins I "knew" were major rarities simply because they were fully priced (5 or $10). A primary objective was not losing money so why tie it up in coins that might not really be rare or might never be in demand. I'm a generalist anyway so prefer having multiple collections even if they are basic rather than advanced.
In my travels I've run into many individuals who take a specialist approach to this endeavor. It's very probable one or more of them will nail it! Somebody or, more likely, somebodys, will have an advanced collection of what is popular in twenty years. Just because nobody knows what that is today hardly means that this collection won't be adavanced or isn't already advanced.
There will probably be at least a couple of people who duplicate or exceed Pittman's feat in the future. Hell, if everybody starts collecting telephones tokens today it could even be me. It will probably happen simply because there is the internet that can locate almost anything and because there are so many rare items still below the radar.
First, I have never read the full story on Pittman but to my knowledge, the idea that he had a regular job and was of limited means is a myth. Somewhere, I read that he worked at Eastman Kodak in "middle management" and spent over $100,000 on his collection over his life. "Middle management" to me means he was a mid level VP or something like it which is hardly a regular job. Someone can correct me if this is not accurate.
John Pittman was a chemical engineer at Kodak, which at the time was essentially a well educated chemist. Pittman was probably more accomplished at trading in to coins than he was at buying them, based on his superior knowledge and foresight. His wife Gehring's salary as a school teacher supplemented his Kodak salary in some regard to his expenditures for rare coins, and some of his purchases at the Farouk sale were financed by a 2nd mortgage on his modest home in Rochester, NY.
@BillDugan1959 said:
Thought #1. Most of the dealers who disliked him did so because of how JJP (reportedly) handled coin shows.
These gentleman said that JJP would come in at the start of a show and try to handle/ review the whole room all at once. If a dealer had something of interest, JJP would say something along the lines of "Would you hold that for me?". Then the great man would quickly move on in his quest to cover the room. And 95+% of the time, he would never come back. These coin dealers were not happy, and they soon learned to discount the great man's interest. They knew that they needed to be nice, but...
Thought #2: In the 1950s, the future was very bright for 80% of the American people. Although how the future would unfold was not known in advance, if you simply went to work five days a week, and delayed your partying until Friday and Saturday night, and then got up again on the next Monday to repeat your labors, you would eventually do very well. 'Strive and succeed' still worked in America.
That is certainly not the case today.
That is not the main reason(s), but it is a big reason why JJP cannot be repeated today.
with regard to thought #1 ---if true, that may work once or twice but should be a non factor after that.
as for thought #2---in actuality there are more opportunities for all people now than there were in the 1950s
@BillDugan1959 said:
Thought #1. Most of the dealers who disliked him did so because of how JJP (reportedly) handled coin shows.
These gentleman said that JJP would come in at the start of a show and try to handle/ review the whole room all at once. If a dealer had something of interest, JJP would say something along the lines of "Would you hold that for me?". Then the great man would quickly move on in his quest to cover the room. And 95+% of the time, he would never come back. These coin dealers were not happy, and they soon learned to discount the great man's interest. They knew that they needed to be nice, but...
Thought #2: In the 1950s, the future was very bright for 80% of the American people. Although how the future would unfold was not known in advance, if you simply went to work five days a week, and delayed your partying until Friday and Saturday night, and then got up again on the next Monday to repeat your labors, you would eventually do very well. 'Strive and succeed' still worked in America.
That is certainly not the case today.
That is not the main reason(s), but it is a big reason why JJP cannot be repeated today.
as for thought #2---in actuality there are more opportunities for all people now than there were in the 1950s
There is also more competition than ever before and far more than in the 1950's. While anyone as an individual can at least in theory do better now versus then, the future is actually quite bleak for large segments of the population collectively. There is at least as much reason to believe that most people will be worse off in intermediate future than to believe they will be better off.
Comments
It was indeed 30 million over 3 sales
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Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Do you suppose that he had a photographic memory too?
I didn't know that Jules was that much into the late die states. I remember that he obtained one of the two very rare 1800 half dime marriages. A dealer bought the coin off the Worthy Coin bid wall in Boston. It was a simply terrible coin in my opinion because the obverse die had almost totally failed leaving little of the design. The piece was attributable, however.
Later another, much nicer, example of the same variety appeared on the Worthy Board. The elder Romano, who had started Worthy Coin, was an active buyer in the 1930s and ‘40s and had a number of such treasures hidden away it his seemingly endless inventory.
I contacted Jules about the coin, but he didn’t have any interest in it because he had obtained the first one.
Although I have had a strong interest in the early half dimes for over 50 years, I was out too. My collection has been limited to the “Red Book” listings. The trouble is when every coin cost more than $1,000, there was only so much that I could buy in those days. This was more than 30 years ago. Gee, am I really that old?
Only if you are buying stolen coins that someone wants to fence cheap. I got to meet him when I was over exhibits at the 1986 ANA Mid-Winter show. Great guy that would talk to you about whatever you wanted to ask. He reminded me of Teddy Roosevelt without the stick. He was a very methodical collector - told me he could have bought the unique 1911 Canadian Dollar in silver that isn't in a museum for $10K, but it wasn't something he wanted because it wasn't a real coin. He had a mint bag of 1948 Canadian dimes that at the time were worth $100+ each. Sharp man, and president of the CNA, ANA and SNM the same year - 1962.
The answer depends on the fate of the rare coin market. At current levels, I would say no. If prices depreciate significantly as plausibly could happen then there may be another Pittman.
I've been waiting for someone to mention this possibility. Certainly this is one way that could open the door for another Pittman (although I am bullish that the rarest coins will continue to go up in a price)
His salary at Kodak was evidently at the time between 10 and 15k per annum.
Well, just Love coins, period.
What is that in today’s dollars adjusted for inflation?
Anyone care to suggest the opportunities that exist for Pittman type returns 30yrs from today?
Latin American Collection
That's a pretty healthy salary today. Today, execs at that level can get 25% to 100% annual cash bonuses plus stock depending on the company.
The $30MM was the total I recall but I didn't know there was more than one auction.
If the market completely eviscerates itself at some point it could easily happen. It would most likely be someone who has an intense love of the hobby as opposed to someone who thinks they're investing.
Not sure if I would trust a government indicator index AT ALL (LOL). I don't see 10k 1953 dollars being the equivalent to 271k nowadays. Maybe if you said 110 I might be a bit more susceptible to belief.
Well, just Love coins, period.
He said $15k in 1940
Most people disagree with my financial outlook for a reason I won't go into here. Under the conditions I expect, what you are describing isn't impossible but about as likely as someone being long and making money in the stock market as the broader indices are crashing. If I wasn't clear, what I am describing isn't the "end of the world" as has been the rebuttal before but an extended period of much tighter financial conditions which cannot possibly be considered a positive for asset prices and this includes most coins.
TDN - good point, that. I suppose I was thinking of that amount of income during the period of the preamble to the Farouk sale.
Well, just Love coins, period.
Making money while the broader indices are crashing is actually quite common. Think contrarians, selling short, George Soros, etc.
Using the approach I describe today, you cannot focus on things that are already mature. You need to understand trends and buy into the trend in an area that isn't mature today but will mature as your collection nears completion.
It isn't just a matter of the playing field being leveled but the astronomically inflated US price level of the currently more expensive and most preferred coins. Those that are (more) affordable to a substantial proportion or most of the collector base overwhelmingly lack the collectible merits to realize outsized returns which will concurrently be financially meaningful.
You’re high. It’s $94k for $10k in 1953
Which coins do you define as the rarest? I ask because if it is predominantly the most expensive US (and many other) coinage concurrently in the highest grades, these are already among if not the most overpriced. To anticipate a potential response, I am aware that the currently wealthy buyers who buy it are both able and willing to do so now. My prediction is that most of them will both be a lot poorer and be far less willing to do so later, though it depends upon the timeframe you or someone else has in mind.
Agree U.S. rare coin market is pretty strong. I'm constantly amazed by how much money is still in the market, especially at the top end.
If the scenario you state happened (and I dont agree) , it would not open a door to another Pittman--Pittman did not have a great collection by collecting "high grade generic type coins"
I have discussed this with you before and I am aware of your point. I can't speak to exonumia or currency but I can absolutely do so for world coinage. There are a lot of US collectors who seem to believe that the US experience can be replicated elsewhere to materially close or even eliminate the price gap. Since there are in the vicinity of 200 countries and each one has many series, the specifics will vary.
Since the US has the biggest, most liquid and most financialized coin market on the planet, the starting point in making this determination should be understanding what characteristics does the US have and to what extent does this exist elsewhere. Where it doesn't exist, what is going to realistically change to make it happen? Or is it going to be primarily US collectors who will also create an (even more) inflated price level elsewhere? I have yet to read any explanation with specifics that would lead me to believe it is a realistic possibility.
Also, since you apparently aren't aware of or disagree with my financial outlook, that's possibly another reason you appear to have a difference of opinion.
I'm aware of your financial outlook and I actually agree with it in general but since so many people are already saying the market is dying, I don't feel like I need to say the same so I'm trying to shine a bit of light for people, even if it may not be what they normally collect. I agree the market will shrink and prices will go lower for the vast majority of coins. I'm surprised by how high I think some common coins are trading at today. There are positive areas and I prefer to focus on that.
Regarding other markets, I don't think US collectors will generally create very strong prices in other countries, I believe it is native collectors in those countries who become materially more wealthy and gain disposable income that will cause coins for those countries to rise. I also don't think we need to look at anywhere near 200 countries. After WWII, the US was the disproportionate economic leader, so we only need to look at candidates for that position going forward, and there aren't many. For example, today China has the 2nd largest GDP overall, but is still behind the US and with a much lower GDP per capita. Imagine what the world will be like when the GDP per capita reaches equilibrium for the two countries, which still won't be for many years, if ever. Today, Chinese collectors are already advancing and, of note, PCGS even slabs many of their coin club medals, where they don't for US coin clubs. Their coin clubs are growing and ours are, dare I say, shrinking?
I wish there was a VIX indicator for the coin market
I agree with you but I see your example as one aspect of the problem. The biggest bubble today is the credit bubble. It is a mega bubble which is much bigger than the current and prior stock market bubbles or those in other assets such as real estate.
I'll be the first to admit that I never conceived that it could last to this point or this long. Concurrently, the background conditions which are described as the "economic fundamentals" continue to get worse, despite misleading economic indicators such as GDP growth which are a very poor measure of economic well being. Most people are at best treading water economically and the only reason they can even manage that is because of perpetually increasing debt. No one not even any government can ensure perpetually artificially cheap credit to enable most people to live beyond their means.
There isn't a proven correlation between increased wealth and coin collecting; only from the existing collector population but not the population generally. Some or a high level of affluence is a necessary precondition but it has no predictive value because having more wealth won't in and of itself make someone want to collect coins or for that matter anything else. Many collectors believe it since it has a superficial plausibility but it is easily disproven by looking at growth rates and available wealth in any country anyone wants to choose. Large numbers in the developing world are able to collect to the same financial level as many members here, they just prefer to spend their money otherwise.
China is one which I think has better prospects but that's mostly because they seem to have a habit of being willing to speculate in practically everything. I don't know how much real collecting occurs there but they definitely have the culture to create a coin market bubble.
Generally though, the supply of the better coins and the corresponding market value is so pitifully low that it should be apparent that the limited existing collecting is not due to a lack of wealth or income. To take an example I know very well, I estimate that the value of all better South African coins is currently probably in the vicinity of $30MM to $50MM. This country has more scale than most yet this amount is the same or less versus a single Heritage Signature auction. It is financially irrelevant especially considering that an outsized proportion of the better coinage is not available for sale and cannot be bought except at "stupid money" prices.
Would you say the South African coin market is very mature then? If so, there may not be a lot of opportunity there for appreciation. South Africa is also a very unequal country in terms of wealth distribution, the most according to the World Bank last year, which may also affect the high prices of their prized coins.
For collectors outside of the country, things that may contribute to the maturation fo the South African coin market is language and lineage. The country may attract US collectors because the it shares a language and parent country with the US. Language may shield Chinese and other markets from US collectors and allow those markets to mature at a slower rate. If you cannot understand what a coin says, you are less likely to collect it.
And by the same token you don't see the possibility that more than a billion Indians might put a lot of demand on Indian coins as countless millions enter the middle class over the coming decades.
I've never understood your thinking. Coins up thousands of fold just aren't financially significant!!!
What exactly does it take to change the world or be significant?
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
Apropos of nothing in particular, none of Pittman's moderns sold.
Of course they wouldn't have brought much in '96 and not a lot more today.
Another thought for you . If you were collecting coins in the 40's and 50's and had simply put away every MS 67 type coin you could> @Boosibri said:
There are certainly many possibilities in world coins, paper money and exonumia. But for US coins, you would have to be on the fringes, it would probably involve mostly inexpensive coins, and it would take a ton of work. Probably only worth that much effort if you're really having fun at it.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
All the respect for Pittman but agree that I would rather be the next Garrett versus the next Pittman.
Hmm... As the other poster referenced, $10k in 1940 was about $180k in inflation adjusted dollars today or $270k for $15k in 1940. That isn't a regular job and limited means especially during a depression.
I think you are nitpicking now. I think the OP was asking whether someone that was not a billionaire or wealth that is not attainable could duplicate a collection like Pittman. Yes, Pittman had a very good job just like a job today of $175,000 is very good. The point is that it is not an unreachable goal. Over 5% of the population makes $175,000. We have over 300 million people in this country. You get the idea.
if it makes you feel better ---can someone making $175,000 today equal Pittman's collection....
If you make 175k average for 40 years and are single with no kids and live on a budget you would have about 2 to 3 million to spend on coins and almost nothing else. I mean you would have to live on the cheap
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I have already told you that India's population increases the possibility of a noticeable market measured by the number of collectors as a function of pure random chance. That is exactly what it is absent another explanation which you have never provided in any our discussions. No matter how many times I demonstrate to you that there is no demonstrated causation between income or wealth and collecting, you keep on bringing this point up repeatedly.
There is no shortage of people with the financial capacity to collect to the same level as most collectors do here. This is a fact, not an opinion. It is equally true in India just as it is in South Africa which is why I provided the estimate in my prior post.
Since you still apparently believe it now, I am going to ask you the same question I asked you before. They can afford it yet the price level proves they don't above very low numbers. If your point has any relevance, why aren't they doing so now?
No, it has nothing to do with it being a mature market. The reason I provided those estimates is because it should be apparent that $30MM, $50MM or whatever the actual amount is does not create any obstacle to higher prices. Many of the coins are not affordable to local collectors but there are still plenty of non-collectors who could collect and pay more if they wanted to do so. They just do not.
It is substantially the lack of interest in real collecting compared to the United States and other countries with long term numismatic traditions, even among prior coin buyers. That's why they had a bubble which imploded in 2011.
On your last paragraph, what you are describing are the cultural aspects and influences of collecting. I agree with this completely. This is the actual primary reason for the difference in the participation rate, the price level and the price structure. In South Africa, most of the economic disparity is with the majority black population. However, there are concurrently plenty of them who can also collect to the same financial level we do but there is no reason to believe they will ever have any affinity for the most preferred coinage there due to the prior Apartheid system.
It’s all relative. Someone could spend all their available free cash making $300k a year today and build a $100m collection. Same thing
there is just so much more money available today than even just 15 years ago. There are 100 startups now raising at 1 Billion USD valuation, 15 years ago there were maybe 3.
Maybe I dont know enough about Pittman, but I have all the Garrett auction catalogues and he tried to by the best quality in many cases + had many super rare or unique coins like the 1792 pattern in amazing conditions.
Thought #1. Most of the dealers who disliked him did so because of how JJP (reportedly) handled coin shows.
These gentleman said that JJP would come in at the start of a show and try to handle/ review the whole room all at once. If a dealer had something of interest, JJP would say something along the lines of "Would you hold that for me?". Then the great man would quickly move on in his quest to cover the room. And 95+% of the time, he would never come back. These coin dealers were not happy, and they soon learned to discount the great man's interest. They knew that they needed to be nice, but...
Thought #2: In the 1950s, the future was very bright for 80% of the American people. Although how the future would unfold was not known in advance, if you simply went to work five days a week, and delayed your partying until Friday and Saturday night, and then got up again on the next Monday to repeat your labors, you would eventually do very well. 'Strive and succeed' still worked in America.
That is certainly not the case today.
That is not the main reason(s), but it is a big reason why JJP cannot be repeated today.
Nope, not a whisper of a chance. That ship (those price levels are now orders of magnitude higher) has sailed.
Yes, although it will have a narrow focus such as a single series. Wealth can change very quickly with the right company, even for those with "regular jobs". Microsoft and Amazon created thousands of multi-millionaires among the ranks, and shareholders who bought early - I know, they are driving up my property taxes!
As I understand the question it is "can anyone today assemble a collection that sells for many times what he paid?".
To answer this question primarily requires a well honed and well-polished crystal ball. I've been working on mine and the only thing I'm sure of after so many years is that it's impossible to predict the future. Or more accurately all we can do is develop probabilities of what the future is apt to look like.
The real question is what will be sought by collectors in the future that is not now. Anything in demand now can not increase many fold to satisfy the real criteria of the question so it must be something below the radar.
I'm a generalist and was always looking for the rarities that might be in demand but on a shoestring budget I'd pass coins I "knew" were major rarities simply because they were fully priced (5 or $10). A primary objective was not losing money so why tie it up in coins that might not really be rare or might never be in demand. I'm a generalist anyway so prefer having multiple collections even if they are basic rather than advanced.
In my travels I've run into many individuals who take a specialist approach to this endeavor. It's very probable one or more of them will nail it! Somebody or, more likely, somebodys, will have an advanced collection of what is popular in twenty years. Just because nobody knows what that is today hardly means that this collection won't be adavanced or isn't already advanced.
There will probably be at least a couple of people who duplicate or exceed Pittman's feat in the future. Hell, if everybody starts collecting telephones tokens today it could even be me. It will probably happen simply because there is the internet that can locate almost anything and because there are so many rare items still below the radar.
John Pittman was a chemical engineer at Kodak, which at the time was essentially a well educated chemist. Pittman was probably more accomplished at trading in to coins than he was at buying them, based on his superior knowledge and foresight. His wife Gehring's salary as a school teacher supplemented his Kodak salary in some regard to his expenditures for rare coins, and some of his purchases at the Farouk sale were financed by a 2nd mortgage on his modest home in Rochester, NY.
"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.american-legacy-coins.com
with regard to thought #1 ---if true, that may work once or twice but should be a non factor after that.
as for thought #2---in actuality there are more opportunities for all people now than there were in the 1950s
He had a bigger challenge with his saint set than a collector would have today.
Except for one coin, you could do as well as Pittman on a teacher's salary.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/20-gold-major-sets/st-gaudens-20-gold-date-set-circulation-strikes-1907-1932/alltimeset/62123
My Saint Set
There is also more competition than ever before and far more than in the 1950's. While anyone as an individual can at least in theory do better now versus then, the future is actually quite bleak for large segments of the population collectively. There is at least as much reason to believe that most people will be worse off in intermediate future than to believe they will be better off.