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Population disparities, PCGS vs. NGC
logger7
Posts: 8,079 ✭✭✭✭✭
What's the reason for this? I looked up a better date $10 gold coin and PCGS has 2 1/2 times more coins graded at 63 than NGC.
Is this due to PCGS just getting more higher end coins on submissions, or crackouts and crossovers?
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PCGS has been the gold standard for many years so there is more incentive to submit there.
First and foremost buy the coin not the holder. But the plastic does matter when it comes time to sell
I only buy PCGS.
I have seen a lot of marginal or somewhat problematic $10 and $20 gold coins; so the higher PCGS populations vs. NGC on some dates could mean that they have been looser.
How would you ascertain why there are substantially more PCGS coins on a given date than NGC?
My pop report page happened to be on 1881-o $1 dmpl coins
in ms63 and above P/N
372/207
396/129
17/5
The only thing I can determine from this, is more coins were submitted to PCGS. This may also be crackouts (but no way to know without more information) When a bunch of them are imaged in CoinFacts, you can sometimes see the same coin with many different cert numbers.
One example, 1889-s $10 MS63: https://www.ebay.com/itm/1889-S-Gold-10-Eagle-NGC-MS63-/163454656961?nma=true&si=JKwPTTGET4ufjMsw5yZuFJ01A2I%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/8716
I've seen that fairly often, a lot more PCGS certified at money grades.
All of the above. Shame that crackouts don't have the paper inserts returned.
The Pops for a great deal of coins leave a lot to be desired.
Might be useful to determine the PERCENTAGE of coins in 63 vs. all coins graded by the service. It might give you a clue as to whether they are being....generous?....with the grades, or if it's just a matter of more submissions.
There always seems to be a big population just below the large price jumps.
I suspect resubmissions & the actual number of coins is a lot lower.
I wish they would use True View and a computer program to delete these off the population report.
My Saint Set
Crack-outs and resubmissions have inflated the population report numbers. You can't use the raw numbers to draw any conclusions about who might be strict or lose with their grading because some of the numbers are reporting the same coins multiple times.
This one was a high end 64 too, a little haze on the holder; one re-submission, too much trouble for more. I would think the common dates would get less insert holder returns throwing off populations.
If I'm trying to collect a complete set of any particular series, I prefer to have them all in the same slabs. (aesthetic value) And I happen to prefer the look of PCGS slabs. If I'm not going after a full set, then another TPGS is okay with me. I do have some NGC graded coins but any other TPGS slabs I buy, I send to PCGS for crossover.
Some years ago I bought a 16d Mercury dime in a ANACS holder. I felt it was a 15 but ANACS had it graded well above that. Anyway, the seller agreed with me and I bought it for 15 money. Later I bought a much better 16d so I decided to sell the 15 coin. I must have shown that coin to 50 dealers over the next couple of years and no one would even make an offer. I even told them I was willing to haggle at 15 bid money. Zero takers. So I sent it into PCGS for crossover. It came back as a 15, as expected. The next show I had dealers fighting over it in the PCGS slab. Clearly the slab made the difference.
For two areas I focus on, the numbers are interesting. I'm hoping the new leadership can improve the competitiveness here.
Civil War Tokens (Patriotics)
13x difference
So-Called Dollars
44x difference
The population numbers are terribly inaccurate due to crossovers and crack outs. Nothing can be reliably interpreted from the numbers - any statements are opinions/guesses. Cheers, RickO
I would think the crackouts are less than they were; the objective is to get an upgrade which is hard when both services are tight. If you got an upgrade by cracking out, what is the likelihood you are going to send in the label? Only if convenient, at a show where the services are set up or by mail? The motivation and encouragement to do so are not significant.
Although grading standards are the same they are not always applied the same way. Many coins I collect have similar NGC and PCGS pops but far fewer NGC coins are offered for sale. This makes me think that many more PCGS coins are cracked out and resubmitted. The problem lies with some dealers showing no respect or regard for census accuracy. One major dealer told me in a disparaging way that a population report is meaningless except for more expensive coins (which this dealer only handles). Here is how I see it; after cracking out a few holders myself it is my belief that NGC holders are more likely to be air tight after seeing more than one PCGS holder not sealed at top above the label. So several of my more expensive coins have 3 opinions after cross to NGC.... CAC will resticker if you send an image of original coin and I have the original PCGS label. So actually I buy the coin and the holder.
Idk how one could draw generalizations from this - anything possible. A dealer with really deep pocket could resubmit coin dozens of times to get upgrade for instance skewing the data.