Gold Is Cheap. Inflation Is Coming. You Do the Math - article

davidk

Worth a read.

Gold Is Cheap. Inflation Is Coming. You Do the Math:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-is-cheap-inflation-is-coming-you-do-the-math-1537582480?mod=hp_highlight_1

davidk

This article now seems to be behind a paywall. It wasn’t when I read it earlier (different browser even, cleared cache , etc).

santinidollar

Try it this way. Came up for me:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-is-cheap-inflation-is-coming-you-do-the-math-1537582480

VanHalen

Wages haven't kept up with a low inflation rate for well over a decade. 10% of the country holds almost 90% of the money while wages are stagnant so inflation stays tame. There are no signs of that changing in the near term (3 to 5 years).

dpoole

Technology has been improving productivity, in part by reducing the need for human labor. The cost of increased productivity has been going down as a result, and not up. It appears to me that this has been a major reason for wage stagnation, and relentless low inflation.

AUandAG

The DOW industrials have a better chance of doubling in the next five years.

bob

MsMorrisine

Isn't the new normal the new status quo?

Economists can't agree on forecasts. The best forecasters are the markets.

davidk

This article now seems to be behind a paywall. It wasn’t when I read it earlier (different browser even, cleared cache , etc).

@AUandAG said:
The DOW industrials have a better chance of doubling in the next five years.

bob

The Dow could be at 1,275,000...priced in fiat. The question is what will that paper fiat buy.

MsMorrisine

The markets are saying the paper fiat will still be good excepting 3-4% yearly inflation plus an unknown added yearly tariff inflation.

OPA

@davidk said:
This article now seems to be behind a paywall. It wasn’t when I read it earlier (different browser even, cleared cache , etc).

@AUandAG said:
The DOW industrials have a better chance of doubling in the next five years.

bob

The Dow could be at 1,275,000...priced in fiat. The question is what will that paper fiat buy.

More PM's...

VanHalen

@dpoole said:
Technology has been improving productivity, in part by reducing the need for human labor. The cost of increased productivity has been going down as a result, and not up. It appears to me that this has been a major reason for wage stagnation, and relentless low inflation.

That makes sense but what doesn't make sense is employers across the nation lamenting a lack of available workers but wages don't even keep up with inflation.

Record low unemployment coupled with record high corporate profits and job openings but still wages barely move. The profits and job openings are real. Something else isn't or at least the way it's reported isn't realistic.

MsMorrisine

Lack of workers or lack of skilled workers?

Baley

@VanHalen said:

@dpoole said:
Technology has been improving productivity, in part by reducing the need for human labor. The cost of increased productivity has been going down as a result, and not up. It appears to me that this has been a major reason for wage stagnation, and relentless low inflation.

That makes sense but what doesn't make sense is employers across the nation lamenting a lack of available workers but wages don't even keep up with inflation.

Record low unemployment coupled with record high corporate profits and job openings but still wages barely move. The profits and job openings are real. Something else isn't or at least the way it's reported isn't realistic.

What isn't realistic is reporting "average" wages and saying they're flat.

Skilled wages are rising fast, because those jobs are hard to fill
And worker with that experience hard to find.

But unskilled jobs keep the averages down, because they pay chit and have high turnover. Any able bodied person can work retail, but scientific and technical workers increasingly have options.

It's somewhat more difficult for middle aged straight white men though, seems employers these days are looking to fill diversity quotas, sorry charley.

VanHalen

@Baley said:

@VanHalen said:

@dpoole said:
Technology has been improving productivity, in part by reducing the need for human labor. The cost of increased productivity has been going down as a result, and not up. It appears to me that this has been a major reason for wage stagnation, and relentless low inflation.

That makes sense but what doesn't make sense is employers across the nation lamenting a lack of available workers but wages don't even keep up with inflation.

Record low unemployment coupled with record high corporate profits and job openings but still wages barely move. The profits and job openings are real. Something else isn't or at least the way it's reported isn't realistic.

What isn't realistic is reporting "average" wages and saying they're flat.

Skilled wages are rising fast, because those jobs are hard to fill
And worker with that experience hard to find.

But unskilled jobs keep the averages down, because they pay chit and have high turnover. Any able bodied person can work retail, but scientific and technical workers increasingly have options.

It's somewhat more difficult for middle aged straight white men though, seems employers these days are looking to fill diversity quotas, sorry charley.

I disagree skilled wages are rising fast, unless you consider 3% to 4% fast. Employers want skilled workers who are young and cheap (relatively). If they can't get young, cheap, skilled workers they whine about a lack of available workers.

It's a global economy that holds wages down (skilled and unskilled) and has for many years. That's not changing and will put more and more strain on already bloated government budgets in our country.

ricko

I am retired from an executive position. I now get calls asking me to help (consult, fill in) and compensation offers that exceed pre-retirement levels. So, skill/experience is definitely in demand. Yes, they would like to higher younger, cheaper labor, however, it is in limited supply, and experience comes at a premium - and usually with age. Cheers, RickO

TwoSides2aCoin

Corporate slavery has never changed.

jmski52

I'm getting a bit fed up, so I asked them yesterday if they wanted me to stick around since they can't seem to get their act together. My liason said they want me to stay. It must be worse than I thought.

VanHalen

The Fed must be anticipating inflation. Fed funds rate up 25 basis points today with 4 more rate hikes planned over the next 12 months taking us over 3% by Fall of '19!

MsMorrisine

The inflation outlook will be on a fed res web site somewhere.

Their long term predictions aren't so good(they'd know about housing crashes causing great recessions if so) [[and I don't believe they caused the last several recessions. Dot.coms were outside and are still outside of their bubble popping mandates]]

MsMorrisine

Today gold got cheaper

I guess Barron's is losing its mojo.

MsMorrisine

@VanHalen said:
The Fed must be anticipating inflation. Fed funds rate up 25 basis points today with 4 more rate hikes planned over the next 12 months taking us over 3% by Fall of '19!

It's from June but the more recent projections just need a better search

I'm doing spring cleaning in the fall and taking it easy right now

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20180613.htm

Smudge

"Articles" like this are usually dressed up advertisements by pm seller's. They are often true though.

davidk

@Smudge said:
"Articles" like this are usually dressed up advertisements by pm seller's. They are often true though.

Interesting. I wonder which PM seller had the money to buy the Barron’s cover.

Smudge

@davidk said:

@Smudge said:
"Articles" like this are usually dressed up advertisements by pm seller's. They are often true though.

Interesting. I wonder which PM seller had the money to buy the Barron’s cover.

You are correct on that one. I have read too many on Coinflation.

derryb

American Consumers Are About To Be Blindsided By An Inflationary Shockwave

jmski52

Gold has gotten a bad rap.
Long seen as the investment choice of the cranky and the fearful, the metal yields nothing; as Warren Buffett has said, it just “looks at you.”

Very interesting - my gold has never just "looked at me".

Baley

@derryb said:
American Consumers Are About To Be Blindsided By An Inflationary Shockwave

What is happening with the prices of products that nobody buys??

davidk

@jmski52 said:
Gold has gotten a bad rap.
Long seen as the investment choice of the cranky and the fearful, the metal yields nothing; as Warren Buffett has said, it just “looks at you.”

Very interesting - my gold has never just "looked at me".

What does Warren's cash do besides automatically depreciate by design?