Laurie’s Long Beach Report
KollectorKing
Posts: 4,820 ✭✭✭✭✭
KollectorKing
Posts: 4,820 ✭✭✭✭✭
KollectorKing
Posts: 4,820 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
Interesting report from Laura's high-end perspective. Mostly, her report just serves to remind me that my modest collection, composed of "dreck" and "cheap" and "widget" coins, will never, ever be considered "great." I gotta tell ya; very motivating stuff!
But c'est la vie, it's all SSDD.
Does not bode well for the market. I will reserve judgement until seeing others.
Can't say it does not bode well. You can't have a major show after the biggest show of the year. Not many markets of ANY thing would do well two weeks after a major show. Plus, its on the opposite side of the country from where ANA was.
Don't make the dreck or widget thing into something it is not. Most people get it
What can be done to get back to the old days? Given the timing seems to be the biggest issue, when would be a good time to move this show now due to ANA?
Sign me up as one who "doesn't get it", then, I suppose.
"It seemed like every case had nothing but dreck or widgets. The few better coins mostly were hidden behind the tables. This is why you need to work with a good dealer-you have better access to better coins including the hidden stuff. You can NOT build a great collection anymore by just looking in cases at a show"
To me, that says the vast majority of coins I may see at a show, in cases on display for sale, are dreck/widgets. Many of which I might not be able to afford in any case. But to be in the "know" -- to really have access to the material that would make my collection "great" -- I'd best be on a first-name basis with a given dealer or two, and ask if I might see their "private stock" -- which I can guarantee you, I'll likely not be able to afford.
What's not to get?
Does not bode well for the market. I will reserve judgement until seeing others.
But she goes on to say "The results from this show were to be expected. We do not think this show will have any effect on the overall market." So I'm not sure what it means....I guess if Baltimore is better, then the LB show was an anomaly.
I talked to one dealer friend the other week who had a great ANA show selling higher end coins.
Talked to another yesterday who is primarily a dreck raw coin part time dealer and he had a great show in Dalton (selling wholesale/dealer to dealer) and was planning on going to Baltimore because of the success he had in Dalton.
Maybe drop a show or two over the course of the year. Less becomes more. There is no way that another major show should be occurring two weeks after the ANA. Sorry that the show organizers couldn’t make the schedule work. I made the mistake many years ago of going back to back to Central States and another large show. Never again! It’s not fun when the only thing I see in the aisles are tumbleweeds!
I read comments by another prominent dealer calling out much the same issues as that raised by Laura, including the reduced amount of quality inventory.
It makes sense that two major shows too close together would cause the second show to suffer.
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
Interesting report. However, I don’t consider the market just a handful of dealers material.
What constitutes s nice coin is a subjective issue. Some nice coins I picked up.
Quality Franks have been brisk. 1949-D PCGS MS 65 FBL
You can have a red hot market in say lamps. You would not have much of a show if the biggest show was 2 weeks out
so much to regroup.
LB and Baltimore BOTH need to cut out one show anyway. The summer shows should not be anymore. Its not even a function of the market-people do not need to attend shows. So why go when the weather is nice or its vacation time? People can buy in the web. Bad show reports from there do NOT help for sure. This LB show was different.
The show organizers won't cut shows until dealers stop taking tables. It's as simple as that. The show may have been lousy from a retailer's perspective, but if the organizers sold all their tables then it was a great show for them.
Having the modest Lincoln set that I do, I agree, Laura and company would say my collection sucks. Of over the 550 Lincolns that make up my registry only 1 was ever purchased from Legend and its a nice coin IMHO. With that being said, I respect the niche she sells/deals in.
Now on the issue of shows, I drove down to Long Beach for almost 6 years and I would say 80% of the time I drove home without a thing purchased. I could have saved my time and money and bought something on ebay. Come to think of it this has happened at Baltimore, FUN, etc. This did not make them bad shows. But it did mean the widgets and dreck in the dealers cases were nothing to cherry pick!!!! But just because I didn't buy a million dollars in coins does not make it a bad show - I had fun. And isn't THAT what this hobby is suppose to be about, not how much darn money you made show after show...
WS
**>
YES if you are a Collector.
NO if you are a Dealer.
Will you be at FUN Bob?
"The few better coins mostly were hidden behind the tables."
I am assuming that lifting the cloth and taking a peek is still frowned upon.
NOTE: we do NOT BID in our auctions against our customers. We do bid at the very end ONLY on coins we feel are way too cheap. If we played, we would be our own biggest buyer-especially this auction!
I don't understand this seemingly contradictory statement. I like your auctions, but I am wary of any auction house bidding on the lots. This really sounds like bidding up the lots, at your discretion if you think they are going too low. Isn't this what auctions are all about? Let the market set the prices, right?
European auction houses do this all the time and it's a very shady practice. I'm going to assume the best here, and I think it would help if you can clarify what's actually going on behind the scenes. I don't mean this to be accusatory, just asking for clarification.
Edit:
@specialist
I generally do NOT bid in our sales. IF a coin is way too cheap, I will buy it-as a consignor you want me too. If someone puts a stupid chap bid in-I don't feel they deserve to buy a coin anyway in any sale (bottom fishers annoy me). Generally we don't have too many coins slip through the cracks.
I can say with 27 auctions now, I bought maybe a total of a dozen coins and that is it. You don't think I cry when we great offerings and I can't buy the coins?
or buy the dealer a hot dog, mustard optional
One show I was set up at a dealer had 4 or 5 tables of raw collector coins in binders stacked up in pages in 2x2 ‘s and as she did around $5000 for the show it’s hardly dreck!
It all adds up and this is a fact in the marketplace whether $10 item or $10,000.
Who are these dealers their better coins behind their cases out of sight lol like benching the star players - everybody knows not gonna sell em that way.
This market is tough. Shows are suffering due to lower pop of collectors, hardly any investors, players have spent their money online, etc. It will take the return of the investor, bullion going up, consistent plus signs in the sheet to turn it around. It’s a buyers market.
A guy came by my table “do you have any 1913 barber halves in VG?” I had sold a PCGS VG 10 about a month before.
I would think Philadelphia and Long beach are far enough apart to bring out collectors in both regions.
To me that is the real measure of strength in the coin market.
Collector participation and collector demand.
However, I can understand dealers being stretched for new inventory with back to back shows scheduled like that.
It’s hard to understand how dealer prices on coins hold up if invoices are due and they need cash to pay for purchases from
previous auctions.
I should edit to say if great coins are not available then that suggests strong demand for those coins.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I find Ms. Sperber's views on the market very revealing and fun to read. I also realize that the level of my collecting and/or needs does not usually mesh with her inventory. No problem. I commented earlier on a 7070 that a collector was displaying, and the fun, thrill, and excitement of filling a hole in a 7070 with ANY piece. It is a simple collection, but rewarding for the collector.
The delight that you feel deeply as a collector functions independently of price. The satisfaction one feels when finding just that right piece for a 7070 can be represented by a Classic Cent in G-6 . . . or in AU-58. The feeling is the same . . . the price point is just on a sliding scale.
Drunner
I like the reports and find them informative about a particular segment of the market. That said, collectors & dealers are motivated by different things and are participating at widely different levels. The differences cause friction and misunderstandings here all the time. It’s difficult for many people to understand anything but their own viewpoint.
But just because I didn't buy a million dollars in coins does not make it a bad show - I had fun. And isn't THAT what this hobby is suppose to be about, not how much darn money you made show after show...
For dealers, it IS about making money, just like any other business! It’s not a hobby to them.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
The show was slow - dealers are burned out two weeks after the ANA, and most of us could use a vacation right about now.
I did very little business, but I'm glad I did the show, since I put something amazing into my personal collection. Not every show has to be great. I've also learned that judging a show in its immediate aftermath is a mistake - I often sell coins two or three weeks after a show to people who looked at them on the floor and needed time to decide whether they were going to pull the trigger.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
Frankly, it's both for me.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
A snipet from John Agre of CRO
Not all the regular dealers and collectors attended
Many people are still paying for ANA purchases and were thus not here in mega-buying mode
Hard to build another mega-auction so soon
General coin fatigue
me: It didn’t help that ANA was later this year. LB was on there same cadence
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
care to share the "amazing " thing you put in your personal collection?
The unique hub trial for the American Congress Pattern Fugio. It was misidentified in the standard text as a 19th-Century fantasy.
An article (with some mind-blowing photos that I've been working with) is forthcoming...
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
I was only 5, twenty five years ago when they were selling half a million dollars in inventory at shows. I wonder if the accessability of the internet has made it easier to by 4 or 5 figure coins online instead of going to shows?
There are two ways to handle a poor show as a dealer. You can say it sucked, but sometimes you can buy your way out of a poor show, which can be just as good as a good show in the long run. The trouble is the quality of the offerings at the shows really has gone down. In that case, there is no way out.
During the worst coin shows in the 1990's a few of us would pull out backgammon boards and play during show hours. I got really good at the game in the mid-1990's.
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
Geez, at least I call it like it was for us. I didn't say oooh eee it was great and the market is on fire.
I think if a dealer has a bad show he should be professional about it and keep it to himself. Perhaps they should reposition - blow it all out and just be a major show / online bullion trader.
Make it into a good buying show or realize it’s a venue that has seen its day which is closer to the truth.
What I really dislike is somebody with an elitist attitude they are better than the other dealers in the room or their material is some kind of holy grail and then trashing out somebody’s collection or inventory.
Numismatic Investment is risky and getting good retail in this market tough. Everybody knows most of the people coming in the bourse room these days are either broke or spent it online.
With the 16,000 coin New York Morgan Dollar Hoard recently graded by NGC and estimated MV $1.2 m plus more gold coming in from Europe which will be trading close to melt now that’s fresh material to get excited about.
It must be hard to be the greatest with all the mediocrity out there....I used to be conceited but now I'm perfect.
As I told numerous buddies at the LB Show last week,
if you want to feel good about the coin market, go by
the Olympic Collectors Section at the show - fairly pathetic,
imo.
Couldn’t find that violin playing emoticon.
This was a rare show where dealers like Legend could not even buy our way out. You people don't think we try everything????
QUALITY coins are NOT around period.
1995 was the year I started playing backgammon if memory serves.
In 1995 I thought it was possible the hobby would go the way of stamps and someday I could own an 1804 dollar.
Given their scarcity, do you feel that the coins that you characterize as "quality" have surged in price?
I think the shows should try different areas....There are many areas that just do not have coin shows and could command a great attendance. These big shows just continue the same schedule and the same areas.... Time to break new ground people... Cheers, RickO
a combined coin & gun show would be an ideal solution.
@KollectorKing ....SHAZAM!!! What a great idea....
Cheers, RickO
throw in comic con & it’ll be a triple win solution.... you heard it here first folks
This could be a root cause of a bad show. From buyers’ language, they are all over-priced. From sellers’ point, couldn’t you check recent auction prices? In this case, there are more and more coins go to auction routes.
Laura has sold me some of my best coins and even though I do not agree with her always she is one of the best in the market. She’s told me plain out I’ve made mistakes when I’ve bid on my own and honestly I’ve taken a beating from those purchases. Coins I’ve bought from her have been great in reselling in the last 10 years.
I do not understand why everyone has to post a link to her weekly reports, especially like the OP did with no comment. Why not at least put your insight into it from the start, @KollectorKing ?
Everyone collects different. If people spend $100 a year or $10million a year, why do people insist on not listening to someone with experience in the market on the high end?
Ignorance is bliss I guess. I see way to much hate for a lady who has experience.
My Type Set & My Complete Proof Nickel Set!
Attended my first Long Beach show in 1964 as a young teenager. Going ever since.
Very typically the September show is the worst of the three shows.
though I have been Lucky on occasion. Those who attend Long Beach shows know this.
My friends in Baltimore speak the same about each show there. My friend /dealer says
this upcoming Baltimore show in October is also worst of the three.
The ANA before these shows drains the market and enthusiasm.