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Ever wonder what would happen if a wealthy collector took interest in your specialty?
DCW
Posts: 6,973 ✭✭✭✭✭
Hypothetical scenario:
Say, a "Mr. Hansen type," with seemingly endless funds and a voracious appetite for new purchases, became interested in the little niche of the hobby that interested you. Would the "big fish in a little pond" deter you from moving forward?
For the middle class collector that can only pay so much, would it be best to roll over and sell, knowing you would be outbid on everything going forward?
What would you do if suddenly your happy little place in the hobby became the focal point of a whale?
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
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I would gladly sell Mr. Whale whatever he wants from my collection, as long as my price is met. And if Mr. Whale makes an exit before I do, I just might consider buying my old coins back. For a fraction of what I sold them for.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
In a way, hasn't that happened with Mr. Hansen's entry into the hobby? Virtually any high level coin, in every series, now has a potential new buyer....
As for me, I don't play at the level where a big money buyer, (or three), has a direct impact on me. Guess "a rising tide floats all boats" applies, but not to any unmanageable extent.....
Nobody can have “all the coins”. There will be plenty left to collect.
And most coins are really not that rare. There is plenty of room for big fish, little fish, red fish, blue fish.
My point is:
If the whale enters a niche market where there are sometimes only a handful of items known, such is the case for some varieties and tokens and medals, what would be your mindset going forward?
This thread was definitely influenced by the Hansen Watch thread, where it seems whatever he wants, he gets.
What would you do if a person with great wealth entered your esoteric area in the hobby and became your competitor?
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
Wait until they lose interest and move on. They usually do. So many specialties.
If I were a specialist and the whale moved into the only area of collecting I cared about I'd be despondent. However it could present a great opportunity to sell out and move on to a new area that you'd had some interest in but not enough funds to fully explore. I have found that once your collection becomes advanced enough that it's very frustrating not being able to add anything to it. Going to the major shows, checking the upcoming auction previews and even trolling through eBay finding nothing over a couple years may have you wishing for a Mr. Hansen to take an interest
Must serious specialties already have numerous wealthy members. A whale would only skew auction results during the bulk accumulation phase of their interests. A couple of years later you might notice a few reactionary dealers on the floor with crazy prices on common coins due to a weird auction result for a special piece. Don’t worry, Those aren’t the type of dealers that would have much a specialist would be interested in.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
I see where you're going with that, but as I see it, the term "wealthy collector" is relative to the subject they are collecting. In some measure, my Libertas Americana Token collection was created in that fashion. When I first sought a nice Libertas token (thinking at the time that there was only 1 variety of such tokens
), I noticed that JK had one on his website (a Lingg Centennial token) and I purchased it. Then he offered me a set of Libertas Americana Bolen medals, in each metal (silver, copper, brass and white metal).
After a while, Steve Hayden acquired the Tanenbaum collection, and emailed me to see if I would like to purchase the Libertas tokens from that collection. His email listed them all out, with individual prices, and then sent them to me on approval. Seeing them in hand, I jumped at the chance. (They were in great condition and nearly a complete set of the New York Libertas tokens, individually priced between $85 to $300, and with a discount if I purchased the entire lot.)
Now, this is when I realized your scenario had been in play. After purchasing the lot, I asked Steve to keep me in mind if he happened to come upon others, especially if they would be the Pennsylvania tokens. Steve responded back saying, "Well, [I] wasn't the first person he had offered that group to." He went on to say, that he had offered the group to the collector who had the most extensive collection of the Pennsylvania tokens, and that when he told that collector the prices, the collector balked, saying the prices were outrageous and they would never be worth that much. So....Steve went back to that collector and told him that the group had sold, and asked if he might be willing to sell his Pennsylvania tokens. Long story short, that collector considered Steve's offer, and I had them within a week or so.
Now, I would not consider asking prices averaging $150 each to be "Whale" levels, but apparently, in regard to tokens, that was the high water level!
I have all the "varieties" of capped bust half dimes except for one. Bring it on, Mr Whale.
Sell to the "whale" and move on to something else.
If a collector does not insist on collecting the "finest known" then it does not matter if one or more whales move in. Hoarders are another matter, they can make it difficult to collect at any grade i.e. 1794 half dollars, small head halves, even CHG for awhile.
Part of this thread's concept was me thinking back to when Realone entered the Trade dollar group and started buying everything. I believe that caused a stir among the people here that devoted a good number of years searching for the harder varieties. Realizing that he had money and was entering the hunt
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
When you think about, there are many potential whales out there. The average celebrity, had they the inclination to collect, could enter the hobby and jettison us to the stamp forum.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
I am not going anywhere, but the whale at some point will have to swim around me.
WS
I would venture the guess that with all the interest in your set, you will realize multiples of what you paid on these!
Will you post the Bolen Lincoln/ Libertas Americana tokens yo this thread?
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
Perhaps the wealthy collector has the means to draw attention to a series others have overlooked... I am fine with that and welcome collectors in my area.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
If a series has truely rare coins, one motivated collector could make a major impact. Everyone has the right to collect what they like so i would wish him or her good luck.
It already has (Hansen) happened and NO it won't change my collecting for the future.
As long as the whale only buys one of each and isn't trying to hoard the market, it'll be fine for us normal humans.
In ancients, an oil Sheikh infamously bought every coin from several auctions in 2012 at obscene prices, spending Hansen money in an even shorter window of time ($30 million in a single auction in one instance). He continued this spree for a few years but was cut off when he stopped paying his bills and ended up dying prematurely of a heart attack.
That was a low period for many of us, being very frustrated after getting hopes up. If he had continued, I wouldn't have anywhere near as many coins as I do as it was simply impossible to compete at any price. I'd have ultimately moved on to a different interest.
At the moment, there is a new billionaire in town but he has expert advisors that are keeping him focused on quality. It's tough when he's bidding on coins but at least I know that if he buys an example of a particular type, I'll have a shot at the next one.
I would nail a doubloon to the mast for whoever found me the big whale.
If a whale decided to buy up all the toned gold out there... I would not complain.
For research, I wonder how much more we could learn and publish.
I love whales in the coin industry .
I cannot collect without them !
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
They already have.
I collect AUs and low end Mint State coins for the most part. Usualy the really wealthy guys go for something better.
The problem comes in when they decide to collect die varieties or, worse yet, die states. Then they can soak up a lot of coins. That was one of the factors that drove me out of half cent die variety collecting. When the die state collectors took over, that took too much material off the market so far as I was concerned.
I don't have any of the Bolen Medals with Lincoln and the Libertas Americana, as yet. The Bolen Libertas pieces I got from JK are these:
Libertas Americana/Washington in Silver, Ex: Musante:
Libertas Americana/J.A. Bolen in Copper, Ex: Musante:
Libertas Americana/John W. Kline in White Metal, Ex: Musante:
Libertas Americana/Wood's Museum in Brass, Ex: Musante:
Love this one!
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
Well, when Mr. Dreck enters the market, I am ready to unload my accumulated junk, or should I say, everything I own.
One man's gold is another man's dreck. It's a hobby, and dreck can be both entertaining and educational.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Everybody is already traffic in their specialty. If somebody enters and starts up bidding you out of new additions you either have to step up, maybe sell out for a profit or be grateful for the deals you once scored.
...that led to some fabulous forum drama
........What would you do if suddenly your happy little place in the hobby became the focal point of a whale?
That does describe one of my areas of interest. Maybe two to three dozen examples a year come onto the market and only a small portion of those are nice. I have about 30 examples, half of which are nice. If that market got hot, I'd sell everything I have except the best one I have.
The scenario is close for my Camp David Counterstamps. I bought a dozen when they were 30-40 dollars each. Now they're too high for me to buy, and not high enough for me to sell. If they went hot, again I'd sell them all but my prototype design example.
A google search shows there are 1500 billionaires in the world. Let’s pretend that one of them wanted to spend one billion dollars on coins. They could possibly buy out an entire major coin show bourse floor. Or what kind of money is sitting in a Baltimore, Long Beach or FUN show and auction? Sure there are a few tables with a million plus in inventory, but not a 1000 of them. 800 dealers at FUN and def not all with a mil in inventory. These dealers go from show to show, so the same material churns.
There are apparently 11 million multimillionaires in the world with at least 3.5 million in assets. I would think that someone like this could make a serious play with focus and dominate a specific area. I think that one person does have the leverage to move a coin market if they wanted. Like if someone wanted to buy all the best large cents or top end gold, like has already happened before. Maybe someone that does an even better job of it than has ever happened before.
I have seen collectors put together (with dealer help) top registry sets and then liquidate them within 5 years .. it boosts the top end values for the series, which then becomes stagnant and starts dropping after liquidation.
This. If you are truly passionate about your series, be patient. I've lasted through whales battling it out at the top, to estate sales and everyone else will tell you the same thing - just wait for the coins to come back around. My concern would be if that billionaire decided to set them up in a public museum and indefinitely out of the reach of collectors. I don't think I would like that very much. We already have a Smithsonian.
Yes, I am not a big fan of the Smithsonian. I went on their website to try to get pictures for an exhibit. They let me download a photo of the unique 1849 double eagle for my double eagle exhibit, but then everything else was blocked. I gave them credit for the photo, of course, by they were hardly cooperative. I sent them emails, and never got any replies.
Yet if you are a young person, they will bend over backwards to make you an intern if you have the right pull, of course. If you are in your 60s, like me, and have years of experience, they are not interested.
Most of what they have is locked up and unavailable for research. They just soak up more coins, as they did with the Lilly Collection, but it ends up going down a dark hole.
Every so called big fish who has approached me over the years stating stuff like "I'll pay top dollar" tries to negotiate every price. After a few rounds I no longer offer them anything since there's plenty of medium sized fish that gladly pay my full ask. With big fish it's far better to just intentionally bait a major auction with something they'll not only swallow the hook on but also put up a tremendous fight until the end.
My experience with the Smithsonian has been completely the opposite. They’ve always been willing to help, and I’ve been treated very well on the few times I’ve visited. On the other hand, they clearly don’t have enough staff or funding to do everything that could be done with the collection. No big deal. We can leave some work and discoveries to future generations.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Andy, you are famous. I am not.
But you are a legend here, Bill Jones!
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
Hey Hey, what do you say?
I agree with what DCW say.
Pete
I think it depends on the series. For instance, I have seen coins I am interested in go for record prices well beyond the price guides and end up in Hansen's collection. Lets say for a certain date there are only 4 UNC (not that uncommon for an older date in liberty quarter eagles, half eagles and eagles). Often one or two you can identify in strong hands. The other one you have no idea where it is. In these and similar instances, I have seen Hansen bid whatever it took to get the coin that came up for auction. If Hansen was not involved the coin would have gone for far far less. Mulitple that over a number of coins you are bidding on against him and it adds up. One whale can make a material difference.
Indeed. It is impossible to think of Bill Jones and not think “Legend”.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
This scenario is kind of what happened to U.S. Paper money collectors who were active and astutely picky before 1990. I have a friend who was buying nice nice U.S. Paper way back when, and when the whole thing got very hot, he disposed of much of it between 2000 and 2005. He happened to be an old man with a very young child, and the money was exceedingly useful.
He sold his stuff to West Coast whales who had made their pile in computers, software, and some early Internet ventures. My friend had a lot of 'ten fers' and several 'twenty fers'. That's what happens when the stuff you are collecting becomes truly hot. The buyers mostly knew that my friend was cutting a fat hog, and they were all extremely nice folks who wished him well for the future.
Mr. Hansen actually IS into my series and it has zero affect on me. He buys things I'd never be able to afford and he wouldn't but the things I can afford.
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
I was very happy to end up with an 1838 quarter eagle that was one of Mr. Hanson's "rejects."
I'm not a whale but if I like something and he is going to take it from me he is going to pay a bit more. You can only do what you can do there will always be some one bigger then you, That's life.
Hoard the keys.
...........You can only do what you can do there will always be some one bigger then you, That's life.
I agree with you...
This sort of thing is also what has made early date large cents so expensive, and has driven collectors to middle date cent collecting, and late date collecting. Some large cent collectors specialize in just one date, particularly 1794.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Looking at that chart the Right Whale is the one you want