How fast can a ...."market" ....turn?
topstuf
Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
Will we get a chance to find out? Either up or down.
When I hear the statement that the "BIG" coins are what is really in demand, I immediately think: ....fund.
And fund buyers want RESULTS. No abstract promises.....RESULTS.
The stock market doesn't "seem" to want to confirm happy times. And I see a "group" of bust dollars on ebay for 79 grand or so. Just gotta wonder who is looking for "groups" of bust dollars at "retail."
Also hearing from other dealers. (NOT majors....just reglar coin whores) that a LOT of nice material is showing up ....but....gee....not a LOT of money chasing it.
One of my offerings that was "hot" 2 weeks ago is now not as.....sought. I am not confident of a rising market. The "hot" category doesn't seem "collector" driven. The guys I talked to were pretty unanimous in noting that even...... "SMALL"..... dealers seemed to have quite a stock of stuff that is supposedly "hot."
Various "red flags" like seeing publication of profit "turndowns" that by percentage would figure into the hundreds of percent by time held. It may go higher. Then again, that sorta turns the dealer into a speculator.
Disclaimer: I just SOLD some stuff. I have been wrong before.
When I hear the statement that the "BIG" coins are what is really in demand, I immediately think: ....fund.
And fund buyers want RESULTS. No abstract promises.....RESULTS.
The stock market doesn't "seem" to want to confirm happy times. And I see a "group" of bust dollars on ebay for 79 grand or so. Just gotta wonder who is looking for "groups" of bust dollars at "retail."
Also hearing from other dealers. (NOT majors....just reglar coin whores) that a LOT of nice material is showing up ....but....gee....not a LOT of money chasing it.
One of my offerings that was "hot" 2 weeks ago is now not as.....sought. I am not confident of a rising market. The "hot" category doesn't seem "collector" driven. The guys I talked to were pretty unanimous in noting that even...... "SMALL"..... dealers seemed to have quite a stock of stuff that is supposedly "hot."
Various "red flags" like seeing publication of profit "turndowns" that by percentage would figure into the hundreds of percent by time held. It may go higher. Then again, that sorta turns the dealer into a speculator.
Disclaimer: I just SOLD some stuff. I have been wrong before.
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My personal observations suggest it isn't happening now. I'm getting more interest in my offerings than ever.
My observation is exactly the opposite. Most of what is showing up is maxxed out so bad I have no interest in it ... and that which is truly nice is going for moon money.
<< <i>My observation is exactly the opposite. Most of what is showing up is maxxed out so bad I have no interest in it ... and that which is truly nice is going for moon money. >>
I'm mostly on the sidelines for a while. I can't touch most of the stuff I see and want for anything resembling a halfway sane bid.
As I say, I've been wrong before.
Part of my situation is age and part is perception and part is paranoia.
I changed most of the money into primarily silver bullion and a fair chunk of gold.
Just changing to what .... I ..... perceive as another opportunity. And one without the reliance on a small sector to support it.
Who knows? I'll buy again.
That's probably because the "happy times" are all government smoke and mirrors.
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USAF veteran, 1986-1996 :: support our troops - the American way.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
While the MONSTERS will always find a buyer.... (probly should quantify "always") .... running up a series is ludicrously simple. Sheets take info from READING offers.....not seeing sales. Offer X for a certain coin and it will be picked up by the sheet. Run it twice and for the whole series and it will be the lead article.
BUT.....nothing says you have to find all the stuff you get "acceptable to YOUR clients" and a coin is returned while you UP your straw bid the next week etc, etc, etc.
And we are talking some significant sums here. When "ordinary" coins are $5000-20,000 you really SHOULD ask who is going to pay MORE?
4 years ago, UP was the ONLY option. Stuff was way out of line vis a vis availability. Not so today.
My OPINION only.
<< <i>(NOT majors....just reglar coin whores) >>
Is a coin whore the same thing as a wannabe?
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>Is a coin whore the same thing as a wannabe? >>
No. With "wannabes" you must provide your own protection.
<< <i>
<< <i>(NOT majors....just reglar coin whores) >>
Is a coin whore the same thing as a wannabe?
Russ, NCNE >>
I was wondering the same thing. Bet this guy gets a LOT of respect in return.
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
While there are still opportunities, I would not be chasing coins at prices beyond reason.
If you overpay a bit for correctly graded coins, then you will probably come out OK. Get stuck
with maxed out, Fugly coins and they will be unsalable at almost any price when the market turns down.
By the way, markets have a tendency to go down quicker and fall faster then when they turn up .
All things being equal, a comfortable bit of cash for future buying opportunities, might be most prudent.
This has been learned, only by my making all the mistakes, in every conceivable combination.
Camelot
When a market turns the "Gray Sheet" will be well behind it. The first signs have begun to show. The Gray Sheet has words like "mixed market" in the headlines it is an indicator that things are slowing down. It's also interesting to note when wholesales dealers talk about selling coins for "over bid" at one point and then comment that a few months ago you could do that as easily.
There man be a major market correction for items that have gone up well beyond their Gray Sheet numbers. For others the adjustments could be minor. At any rate, it won't matter what prices are on the Gray Sheet. If dealers find that they are not selling certain items, they won't buy them at anywhere near "bid" if they don't feel that they can sell them. And things won't change until the perception is that the "free fall" in price is passed.
If you don't believe me, I've been at this for 30 + years with serious money invested. Both good and bad markets pass. The key is to avoid being overextended so that you have to sell in a bad market. That's the pits.
<< <i>The key is to avoid being overextended so that you have to sell in a bad market. >>
Amen.
And even a small LOSS is always recoverable.
<< <i>How fast can a ...."market" ....turn? >>
On a dime
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A bunch of dealers have big auction bills coming due in the next 3 weeks from FUN. These dealers have also been selling below sheet or wholesale to free monies for the auction bills.
Long Beach will be a good show b/c of this.
TBT
<< <i>After 4 shows in 5 weeks I would have to say the market is healthy.....not "hot".....but not cold either.
A bunch of dealers have big auction bills coming due in the next 3 weeks from FUN. These dealers have also been selling below sheet or wholesale to free monies for the auction bills.
Long Beach will be a good show b/c of this.
TBT >>
I agree. Too many shows in such a short time. It is a healthy market and nothing that will "crash".
Cameron Kiefer
Why does that not make me feel any safer?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>It is a healthy market and nothing that will "crash".
Why does that not make me feel any safer? >>
Because you picture me as a 14 year old YN who collects pieces of plastic
Cameron Kiefer
K
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
14? Well, well, young man! Happy birthday!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Cameron Kiefer
Cameron Kiefer
Is that some sort of clever euphemism? If so, way to go Cameron!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Cameron kiefer
Remember the Walter Breen PM? "Sample Slab" was a euphemism.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Cameron Kiefer
Cameron - That expression reminds me of Biggs in Trading Places. You know, the scene in the cage?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Cameron Kiefer
I'm referring to the movie. It's a classic.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Good post ...
Conder,
While I believe your statement is true, I attended the 1990 ANA show in Seattle, and although the market was in a downtrend by then, a lot of collectors hadn't realized that much of the higher-end material was moving against their buying.
I saw some big dollars spent, at what my friends and I considered to be some crazy money, and I honestly believe that was because those collectors (or perhaps they were just speculators) did not realize what had happened to the high-end market in the previous 6 to 9 months.
As has been said, often the market has turned before the buyer realizes that a shift has occured.
BTW, although I didn't forsee the ensuing downtrend, I sold a few high-grade pieces at that show for a profit to some happy and willing buyers ... none of those pieces had I owned for even a year at the time.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
<< <i>This type of thread has appeared off and on for the last three years. It will appear off and on for a year after the market has turned. >>
You're right. I have read them all.
It's just that NOW I am getting quite a lot of input from ......."coin whores"......(who don't get no respeck.....but seem AWFUL welcome at every table) ....about the abrupt change in market. Accompanied by noticing the abundance of pricey stuff at less-than-pricey places.
Have no idea. Just "hunch."
As the "stock whores" will all tell you: Do your own due diligence.
As TBT says Long Beach should be "good" because of sales forced by impending debt, that is good for buyers but not so good for those "under the gun."
Some of this decline may have to do with the plethora of nice material that has left the market into collectors hands, leaving the marginal pieces in dealers inventory.
The Coin Market, lately, has been reminiscent to me of the "rare" Car market of the late 1990s, where prices well outstripped the actual scarcity of the material being offered. With the publicity that the Coin market has been receiving as of late outside of "normal" channel, ( the WSJ etc.) I can't help but feel that people who don't understand the market have been pouring cash into coins for specualtive purposes.
I guess we will see.
Greg
I was looking to buy a $20 Liberty recently, and was surprised to hear from a seller "if you REALLY must have it right now, fine, but we expect gold to be $375/toz in August, why not just wait then?"
One of the coin shops I go to is opening rolls of UNC state quarters and putting them in the registers (sounds like the old Mint Set episodes).
My money market fund has bumped-up the yield twice in under a month (it's quite reasonable now).
It seems to me that a lot of people that got started in state quarters have gotten older (teenagers now, we won't get them back until mid 20's or so) and have lost interest in coins vs. buying older series.
And I've heard a number of times recently "it's a collectors market. Collectors who aren't afraid to pay strong money." But my question has always been: "How much supply is there vs. hardcore collectors?" A couple hundred million (coins) to ~8 thousand (people...maybe)?
I'm now putting off (almost all) purchases until the end of the summer. Thoughts?
PS I have a feeling we're in for a major correction in bullion and coin prices, the last time I felt this way was in Feb '00 with the stock market...
PPS This doesn't mean a tanking US economy though, quite the reverse. I expect a booming US economy (absorbing the capital).
-g
I'd give you the world, just because...
Speak to me of loved ones, favorite places and things, loves lost and gained, tears shed for joy and sorrow, of when I see the sparkle in your eye ...
and the blackness when the dream dies, of lovers, fools, adventurers and kings while I sip my wine and contemplate the Chi.
Yogi
<< <i>The hardest thing to predict is the future.
Yogi >>
I thought it was what women want...
(flame away...)
-g
I'd give you the world, just because...
Speak to me of loved ones, favorite places and things, loves lost and gained, tears shed for joy and sorrow, of when I see the sparkle in your eye ...
and the blackness when the dream dies, of lovers, fools, adventurers and kings while I sip my wine and contemplate the Chi.
the rapid turn made when a speculative market collapses or a bubble bursts.
These changes can be very sudden and catch some who are in the middle of it
unaware. These are usually triggered by a change in psychology and can move
with the speed of light.
Psychology also affects buyer attitudes and in the unlikely event that many buy-
ers suddenly come to believe that they are missing something or that there is
undue risk in their current assets then there can be a buying panic.
So long as everyone believes that inflation is not only controllable but tamed
and domesticated by the fed they will keep assets in dollars even as it falls. So
long as they don't see large increases in what they buy regularly they will be-
lieve that 3% in the bank is adequate for a safe investment.
So long as everyone sees tons of common moderns that most agree aren't even
really coins and there are only a few who collect them then they won't pay them
much mind. So long as there are three proof and mint sets for everyone who wants
them there will be no price pressure whether they are rare or common.
What happens when a recovering economy speeds the flow of money? What hap-
pens when there are fewer raw moderns than collectors? What happens as the
millions of new and returning collectors continue working their sets over the next
several years?
It would be pretty surprising to see a buying panic in VG common date buffalos but
what about scarcer moderns and good dividend stocks. How about things of real
lasting value like well placed real estate and the Japanese yen?
This market might turn sour and go south but if it goes anywhere very fast it will be
going straight up.
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.