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David Hall's latest Inside View Buy/Sell recommendations
iras4
Posts: 300
Just settled down to read the latest recommendations. Here are some examples:
Half cents:
Buy 1793 to 1808 in grades VF30 and above. SELL all other grades below that.
What? Sell my nice VF20?
Large Cents:
Buy 1793-1814 in VF30 or better. Sell all others graded lower?
Guess nice smooth VF20 and VF25s need to be dumped. Ditto 1793 Liberty Caps and
Wreaths in VF25 and lower!
Flying Eagle and Indian Head cents: Dump all MS-64 or lower and dump ALL your
RBs, regardless off grade! Whoops! There goes my MS-64 1872 in 90% red. Better
take whatever I can sell it for!
Buffalo nickels:
Dump all in grades MS-64 and blow. Guess this means the flashy 1926 S, 1924S,
1918 S and both overdates! Ditto the flashy MS-64 1937D 3 legged. I pity the
poor souls who buy this low grade garbage!
Standing Libery Quarters:
Dump ALL MS-64 and below, including flashy 1916 FHs and overdates and the
trashy 1927S FH in MS-64.
Half Dollars:
Dump ALL early halves in VF25 & blow INCLUDING, it would seem, the ultra rare
1796 and 1797 halves! Those will sure be easy to replace with higher grades,
right? Every dealer has a handful in his showcase.
Ditto for small eagle reverse quarters below VF30. Those are surely loser
coins!
So what's recommended?
Franklin halves in MS-65. Now THOSE are truly rare!
What else should I buy?
Buy Roosie dimes in MS-66 FB as well as the super rare Roosies in PF67
Am I losing my mind? I post this at risk of being permanently booted fom the
forum!
Comments anyone? Buehler? Buehler?
Half cents:
Buy 1793 to 1808 in grades VF30 and above. SELL all other grades below that.
What? Sell my nice VF20?
Large Cents:
Buy 1793-1814 in VF30 or better. Sell all others graded lower?
Guess nice smooth VF20 and VF25s need to be dumped. Ditto 1793 Liberty Caps and
Wreaths in VF25 and lower!
Flying Eagle and Indian Head cents: Dump all MS-64 or lower and dump ALL your
RBs, regardless off grade! Whoops! There goes my MS-64 1872 in 90% red. Better
take whatever I can sell it for!
Buffalo nickels:
Dump all in grades MS-64 and blow. Guess this means the flashy 1926 S, 1924S,
1918 S and both overdates! Ditto the flashy MS-64 1937D 3 legged. I pity the
poor souls who buy this low grade garbage!
Standing Libery Quarters:
Dump ALL MS-64 and below, including flashy 1916 FHs and overdates and the
trashy 1927S FH in MS-64.
Half Dollars:
Dump ALL early halves in VF25 & blow INCLUDING, it would seem, the ultra rare
1796 and 1797 halves! Those will sure be easy to replace with higher grades,
right? Every dealer has a handful in his showcase.
Ditto for small eagle reverse quarters below VF30. Those are surely loser
coins!
So what's recommended?
Franklin halves in MS-65. Now THOSE are truly rare!
What else should I buy?
Buy Roosie dimes in MS-66 FB as well as the super rare Roosies in PF67
Am I losing my mind? I post this at risk of being permanently booted fom the
forum!
Comments anyone? Buehler? Buehler?
Dealer/old-time collector
0
Comments
<< <i>Franklin halves in MS-65. Now THOSE are truly rare! >>
yep, line up here and I'll sell you some!
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
believes that these are the coins which are experiencing increasing demand
relative to their available supply. While time will tell whether the predictions
are good or bad it should be remembered that it takes courage to go against
the prevailing wisdom. If it ever did snow in July no one would predict it until
after the fact. By the same token it should be remembered that everything is
perception and peoples' perceptions are changing. It is beginning to be seen
that things people believed were common when no one was looking are in ac-
tuality scarce, that things which were percieved to be of no value were of no
value only because people had mistaken assumptions about them. Does this
mean the classics are junk? Obviously not and it never will. It merely means
that one author believes there might be some realignment of resources in the
future.
I might have agreed with him if he had just used the word clad.
Some of these make absolutely no sense!
Having all high grade coins is nice but just walk the show floor of a national show and you will get a real education!
I rather have dozens of blue boxes filled with nice original 58s and 64s which fit into many collections vs. a half full box of super gems and hoping for moon money.
You know, stockbrokers do the same thing, and they are about done buying up all the good "value" stock from poor joe public... watch, you heard it here first... "Quality" stocks will be the thing they're recommending when they have a full tank and want to sell it back to us.
Collect what you like is the bottom line. If you're investing, you're on your own in an ocean amid sharks.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Buy Roosie dimes in MS-66 FB as well as the super rare Roosies in PF67 >>
You will not be sorry if you buy PCGS MS66FB and higher Roosies. The FB ones will prove to be very hard to find and they will skyrocket in value. Only buy them with the FB designation and only buy PCGS graded ones. Some people think the FB designation isn't needed, but just look at the FB designation on Mercs or the DMPL designation on Morgan dollars. The people who bought those early on became rich.
While I can't comment on the old coins he recommends even though I am sure they are excellent recommendations, the FB Roosies are without a doubt a great and prophetic recommendation that you will all follow if you are smart.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
I would have to agree, esp with the Roosies. If you gave them to me for free, I would put them in parking meters.
Robert
<< <i>No matter how hard I try I can't get excited about Roosies or Franklins regardless of how nice they are. If they were all there were to collect I would drop out of collecting. This is not meant to aggrivate the Roosie and Franklin collectors on the forum. It is just a statement of my true feelings about both series. >>
The beautiful thing about the hobby is that there are so many things you
can collect and the beautiful thing about human nature is that it will usually
create opportunities in places you look and in places you don't. I certainly
wouldn't change course too dramatically if someone told me the next big
thing will be in old radio tubes or early waterbeds.
Simply because eye appeal rules today and will rule tommorrow. End of story.
I don't care whether its a chain cent in F12 with a smooth /problem free planchet with a nice chocolate brown look or whether its a full struck 1982D Washington 50c commem in PCGS-MS68.
Both coins will always have demand because of quality.
I have read too many of these "investment" letters to know that they mean "zip"
B
He is crazy.
Tom
<< <i>Who really cares unless you are an investor. As a collector , I could care less,
Simply because eye appeal rules today and will rule tommorrow. End of story.
I don't care whether its a chain cent in F12 with a smooth /problem free planchet with a nice chocolate brown look or whether its a full struck 1982D Washington 50c commem in PCGS-MS68.
Both coins will always have demand because of quality.
I have read too many of these "investment" letters to know that they mean "zip"
B >>
Couldn't have said it better. Eye appeal is what I look for plain and simple. And by that I mean the coin, not the plastic.
Dump all in grades MS-64 and below. Guess this means the flashy 1926 S, 1924S,
1918 S and both overdates! Ditto the flashy MS-64 1937D 3 legged. I pity the
poor souls who buy this low grade garbage!"
I think he's right about these. So if you've got any, PM me before you get stuck with them and I'll make you a great offer!
Guess I got to rethink this.
OK Done, Nope I can't trust his judgment anymore till he shows me some good faith and sound decisions that are not self serving , but good for the masses.
Don't anyone try to bribe me!
Bulldog
No good deed will go unpunished.
Free Money Search
you don't has got to be good for the masses.
Buy Roosie dimes in MS-66 FB as well as the super rare Roosies in PF67
FB Roosies - hmmmm - promoting a recently new designation? Hmmm - who woulda thunk that?!?
Mike
Lincoln Wheats (1909 - 1958) Basic Set - Always Interested in Upgrading!
<< <i>FB Roosies - hmmmm - promoting a recently new designation? Hmmm - who woulda thunk that?!? >>
Just think of all those crackouts coming in for the FB designation.
Cha-ching
My posts viewed
since 8/1/6
I'm waiting for the FS designation on MS Lincoln Memorials. $$$ to be made!
Mike
Lincoln Wheats (1909 - 1958) Basic Set - Always Interested in Upgrading!
<< <i><< Buy Roosie dimes in MS-66 FB as well as the super rare Roosies in PF67 >>
You will not be sorry if you buy PCGS MS66FB and higher Roosies. The FB ones will prove to be very hard to find and they will skyrocket in value. Only buy them with the FB designation and only buy PCGS graded ones. Some people think the FB designation isn't needed, but just look at the FB designation on Mercs or the DMPL designation on Morgan dollars. The people who bought those early on became rich.
While I can't comment on the old coins he recommends even though I am sure they are excellent recommendations, the FB Roosies are without a doubt a great and prophetic recommendation that you will all follow if you are smart. >>
That's REALLY interesting - you can tell all those "lie tellers" and now you can prophasize too!! You must be psychic! - great to have you on the forum cheerleading for these great recommendations and only PCGS coins (repeat multiple times: buy the plastic, not the coin, buy the plastic . . . ). Your advice for us less knowledgeable old time collectors is greatly appreciated. We would hardly know what to buy if we didn't have you to put your imprimater on DHRC's recommendations; DHRC's recommendations are one thing, but your assessments of their prophetic nature is what really helps us in our coin buying decisions.
As you collect SECs and state quarters, could you give us just a little bit of insight into the basis for your enthusiastic concurence with DHRC's recommendations? Any particular dates we should hitch our "Rockets" to? Will they be like Enron stock and sour to heights unimagined by any sane human being? Will the "skyrockets" fall to earth, or will they go ever high and higher, eventually leaving this earth all together into the darkness of outer space - (someday to be sucked into a black hole)? I like skyrockets, but every one I've ever seen falls back to the ground. Will this be the exception? Use you prophetic wisdom and enlighten us poor mortals (quickly please, we don't want to miss the colorful star bursts).
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain
Newmismatist
K S
<< <i>
<< <i><< Buy Roosie dimes in MS-66 FB as well as the super rare Roosies in PF67 >>
You will not be sorry if you buy PCGS MS66FB and higher Roosies. The FB ones will prove to be very hard to find and they will skyrocket in value. Only buy them with the FB designation and only buy PCGS graded ones. Some people think the FB designation isn't needed, but just look at the FB designation on Mercs or the DMPL designation on Morgan dollars. The people who bought those early on became rich.
While I can't comment on the old coins he recommends even though I am sure they are excellent recommendations, the FB Roosies are without a doubt a great and prophetic recommendation that you will all follow if you are smart. >>
That's REALLY interesting - you can tell all those "lie tellers" and now you can prophasize too!! You must be psychic! - great to have you on the forum cheerleading for these great recommendations and only PCGS coins (repeat multiple times: buy the plastic, not the coin, buy the plastic . . . ). Your advice for us less knowledgeable old time collectors is greatly appreciated. We would hardly know what to buy if we didn't have you to put your imprimater on DHRC's recommendations; DHRC's recommendations are one thing, but your assessments of their prophetic nature is what really helps us in our coin buying decisions.
As you collect SECs and state quarters, could you give us just a little bit of insight into the basis for your enthusiastic concurence with DHRC's recommendations? Any particular dates we should hitch our "Rockets" to? Will they be like Enron stock and sour to heights unimagined by any sane human being? Will the "skyrockets" fall to earth, or will they go ever high and higher, eventually leaving this earth all together into the darkness of outer space - (someday to be sucked into a black hole)? I like skyrockets, but every one I've ever seen falls back to the ground. Will this be the exception? Use you prophetic wisdom and enlighten us poor mortals (quickly please, we don't want to miss the colorful star bursts). >>
I couldn't have said it better! I think I'll run out and sell all of my Walkers too!!!
Wheat's Walkers current # 1
you like. It says that you should buy the unrecommended coins only for your collection.
Just because one man thinks the market for coins is going to maintain the direction it's
been on for the last couple generations doesn't mean you even have to agree with him.
These recommendations obviously weren't intended nearly so much for collectors as they
were for investors so why not just ignore them?
If those MS-64 are properly graded and attractive for the grade, they are REAL easy to sell to other collectors. If you want to dump those coins, bring 'em to a show and let me have a crack at them. I'll take that "trash" off your hands at a fair price.
<< <i>Now I am confused! Am I supposed to start trusting that Hall guy again >>
Sure. After all, he took good care of everyone that purchased shares of CLCT at the stock's initial purchase offering(IPO), right? Take a look at how well his fellow collectors/dealers have done.
CLCT Stock
Info@PFgold.com
I think everyone is getting a bit too worked up over this statement. First, anyone who is a "smart shopper" can find many of these MS66FB silver dimes for as little as $15-$20/coin slabbed right now! And, some of these coins bid for upwards of $5 -$10 RAW by the roll! They are actually attractive coins for the average collector IMHO, IF YOU BUY THEM RIGHT. If you go out and pay $50 or $100/coin for common dates because you do no homework - what can anyone say.
Second, a coin like the 1968 NO S Roosie is a "super rare" proof Roosie in "PR67" and I personally like that coin as well. ARE THERE ANY OTHER "SUPER RARE" ROOSIES IN PR67 OTHER THAN THE 68 NO S COIN (of course early date DCAM's might be what was intended)?
Finally, when the recommendation says to sell "all issues in all grades up to and including MS65FB, in most cases we are talking about coins which generally sell at $20 and under per coin, with many selling for under $10/coin! In fact, the coins are so "cheap", you can usually find them in bulk lots at the secondary auctions at prices which often do not even cover the grading fees that went into the auction lot in the first place. In other words, the way I read this is that - to the collector out there who is sitting on a full box of 20 of these dimes which you have amassed over the past year or two - now is as good as any time to "cash out" your holdings for, possibly, $100 or $200 for the whole collection. Or, just hold them and don't cash out the $200 coin collection - but, no one should get too worked up over the recommendation to "dump" this kind of stuff.
Side note - there are a handful of much better date MS66FB Roosies which, IMHO, are terrific "cherry-pick" possibilities if you can find older (unmarked FB) holders or neat raw coins in 2x2's, etc. Even buying them "right" in slabs makes sense to me right now. I do believe the series is getting more popular.
Wondercoin
<< <i>That's REALLY interesting - you can tell all those "lie tellers" and now you can prophasize too!! You must be psychic! - great to have you on the forum cheerleading for these great recommendations and only PCGS coins (repeat multiple times: buy the plastic, not the coin, buy the plastic . . . ). Your advice for us less knowledgeable old time collectors is greatly appreciated. We would hardly know what to buy if we didn't have you to put your imprimater on DHRC's recommendations; DHRC's recommendations are one thing, but your assessments of their prophetic nature is what really helps us in our coin buying decisions.
As you collect SECs and state quarters, could you give us just a little bit of insight into the basis for your enthusiastic concurence with DHRC's recommendations? Any particular dates we should hitch our "Rockets" to? Will they be like Enron stock and sour to heights unimagined by any sane human being? Will the "skyrockets" fall to earth, or will they go ever high and higher, eventually leaving this earth all together into the darkness of outer space - (someday to be sucked into a black hole)? I like skyrockets, but every one I've ever seen falls back to the ground. Will this be the exception? Use you prophetic wisdom and enlighten us poor mortals (quickly please, we don't want to miss the colorful star bursts). >>
I've heard stories about before PCGS gave the FB or Mercury dimes and the FBL on Franklins and the DMPL on Morgans. PCGS was able to add a designation to help the collectors figure out what was rare. Now those coins with those designations are worth so much more. PCGS recognized the need for the FB on Roosevelt dimes and added it. Those who know history can predict the future. These coins will skyrocket in value.
The 1947-S Roosevelt doesn't have a single example graded with the FB designation. Compare that to 247 1793 Chain cents they have graded and you can begin to see the rarity here. Which would you rather own? The coin with no known examples or the coin with 247 known examples?
Maybe you don't want to believe the the past will repeat itself, but PCGS had a reason for adding the FB designation. Will you be the only one left out when these coins explode into the stratosphere in value? Will you be the only one left holding the Roosevelt dimes without the FB designation? Don't say I didn't warn you. Don't say David Hall didn't warn you. Don't say PCGS didn't warn you. You'll have no one to blame but yourself if you fail to take advantage of this golden opportunity.
Wondercoin
<< <i>Maybe you don't want to believe the the past will repeat itself, but PCGS had a reason for adding the FB designation >>
hey wallstreetman, darned right they had a reason. it's profitable for them. nothing wrong w/ that, but say it like it is, wallstreetman
K S
Whats the matter, you all have a bad breakfast this morning. Lighten up,
enjoy the day, evaluate all you read and hear with the mind you were given at birth.
We are all supposed to be big boys and girls, make your own decisions and stop
belly aching.
Camelot
<< <i>
Maybe you don't want to believe the the past will repeat itself, but PCGS had a reason for adding the FB designation. Will you be the only one left out when these coins explode into the stratosphere in value? Will you be the only one left holding the Roosevelt dimes without the FB designation? Don't say I didn't warn you. Don't say David Hall didn't warn you. Don't say PCGS didn't warn you. You'll have no one to blame but yourself if you fail to take advantage of this golden opportunity. >>
Fanofmoderns: This is exactly the kind of thinking that causes bubbles to form and damns
to burst. Buying something only because you believe it will go up is investment but when
many do it it's tulip bulbs and dotcoms. Even those who get in early can be badly burned
in collapsing speculative markets. It would also prevent the many people who do love these
coins from acquiring them on the cheap.
I do not believe that HRH wants this market to behave any more like a bottle rocket than
anyone else. If you like these coins then collect them. If you want to invest in coins then
these are likely an extraordinarily good bet but don't bet the rent money and do exercise
care.
I don't think that PCGS has to assist collectors to know what is rare and/or desireable to collect. Rather they are an astute company that saw a legitimate business opportunity to leverage re-grading sales for Morgan Dollars etc. in the numismatic marketplace by adding the DMPL and PL designations to their grading system.
It was a smart move, and was also probably a benefit to some less astute and less experienced Morgan Dollar collectors. For others it probably helped to increase the price of DMPL & PL Morgans which is good for the owner and perhaps not so good for the potential buyer...
Just my 100 cents worth...
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
<< <i>As I dealer, I hope that I am around when people decide to take Mr. Hall's advice.
If those MS-64 are properly graded and attractive for the grade, they are REAL easy to sell to other collectors. If you want to dump those coins, bring 'em to a show and let me have a crack at them. I'll take that "trash" off your hands at a fair price.
You are certainly right! Attractive 64's are one of the easiest sells because they fit into many collector's budgets.
<< <i>Those who know history can predict the future. >>
Really! You must know a lot of History. - Can you pick lottery numbers also?
<< <i>The 1947-S Roosevelt doesn't have a single example graded with the FB designation. Compare that to 247 1793 Chain cents they have graded and you can begin to see the rarity here. Which would you rather own? The coin with no known examples or the coin with 247 known examples? >>
Well lets see if someone who has a little knowledge about the history of US coins can answer that (other forum members can help too as I sure don't know everything about coins - that's why I keep reading those pesky books). THe 1793 Large cent and the companion half-cent were was the 1st coins minted under the authority of the US government. If you want to complete a dated set of every date since our government began minting coins you have to acquire either a 1793 Large cent or a 1793 half-cent to complete a date set. Less than 100,000 1793 cents of all varieties were minted. When large cents were turned into the goverment in 1857 and thereafter in exchange for the new flying eagle cent, many were undoubtedly melted. Large numbers have probably been lost over the past 210 years. PCGS, your grader of choice, has graded 252 Chain cent varieties ( a one year type coin - you want a chain cent - you have to buy one of these!) with only 14 coins graded AU55 or better (only 11 MS coins). Of the Wreath variety PCGS has graded 371 coins with only 30 MS coins. So between the 2 varieties, their are only 41 total PCGS MS coins.
Now the great rarity: the 1947-S Roosie dime: Stats: 34,840,000 Minted; 1,247 graded as MS63 to MS67; 34 graded MS66FB to MS68FB - Now I'm sorry to say I don't quite know what a Roosie FB is - I assume it means full bands - I also presume it means the vertical bands on the reverse torch - the torch is NOT the highest part of the coin - hence the most receased part of the die, so a FB Rossie does not necessarily mean a sharp strike. It probably means an early strike because delicate die work gets worn quickly after several THOUSAND strikes. IF one of the Roosie dime specialists could tell us how many different reverse dies were used, you could probably predict how many FBs were struck per die and thus you could create a statistical prediction as to how many were struck - For expample if every die struck 100,000 before being replaced then approx 340 reverse dies would be used - If only the 1st 10,000 coins struck had FBs than there would only be a pool of 3,400,000 FB 1947-S Roosies - other factors might apply - maybe the master dies worn worn (not likely the series started in 1946) maybe the SF mint used a lower striking pressure to extend die life - then overall strikes would be less defined. After someone takes the knowledge to comes up with a way of getting a sample, a statistician could make a prediction as to the total potential population of FB Roosies. Another way: 1247 MS 47-S's graded and 34 FBs = 2.7% of 47-S's are struck as FBs. Out of 34.84 Million this would yield a potential of 924,715 FB 1947-S Roosies if ALL 34,840,000 Roosies were graded.
SO the answer to your question (- assuming one knows AND understands the History of coins) is that there are very few 1793 Large cents, it is an historically important coin that would be a highlight of any numismatists' collection. The 1947-S Roosie is probably as common as grains of sand on a beach, but only a small % of been graded because its really not worth very much. You could probably find many 47-S's at any large or small coin show both slabbed and raw and most have not even been looked at to see whether they have FBs (if that even matters). There is nothing particularly unusual about a 47-S Roosie dime. If you can't find a nice one today, you'll find one tomorrow. Can the same be said about the 1793 Large Cent?
<< <i>Maybe you don't want to believe the the past will repeat itself, but PCGS had a reason for adding the FB designation. Will you be the only one left out when these coins explode into the stratosphere in value? Will you be the only one left holding the Roosevelt dimes without the FB designation? Don't say I didn't warn you. Don't say David Hall didn't warn you. Don't say PCGS didn't warn you. You'll have no one to blame but yourself if you fail to take advantage of this golden opportunity. >>
The reason PCGS added the FB designation is probably the same reason why the grade lots of modern coins that come directly out of Mint sealed holders - to charge people a fee to grade coins that probably don't need to be graded (or re-graded). But the lure of profits that "explode into the stratosphere" (something like the payoff for a lottery or slot machine) will drive this market. No different that Enron, MCI-World Com, etc. etc. The greater fool theory never prevented people from "investing" money stupidly. Tulip crazes will continue as long as there are persons like yourself who can "predict the future" based on an incomplete understanding of history. I don't mind being left out of this "gamble' - If I want to gamble, I'll go to Las Vegas - At leat there you know that you're gambling - Somehow you "think" you're investing. You need to "know" some history before you can make an educated "guess" about the future. If you can predict the future based on whatever was presented by DHRC's predictions that were presented here, and you're really sure about your predication - then sell everything you own, mortgage the house and buy all those FB Roosies. I'm sure that HRH, DHRC and PCGS will do every thing they can to make sure you become a multi-millionaire in 1 year or less. THis is a "HOT" market so you'd better act quickly - don't wait or you'll miss that rocket ride. (BTW when you get up on one of those rockets, how do you get off?)
Some people cannot use their own eyes, their own common sense and their own judgement to determine that most of those coins look exactly like all the others and whatever miniscule differences there are are probably unimportant. Paying PCGS $10 or $20 to grade a common coin that looks exactly like all the other common coins is a mostly a waste of money for the collector (not always), but VERY beneficial MONITARILY for PCGS (or NGC - they like to get paid to grade coins too). It's not a good investment because there are millions of these coins available - the only question is: IS anyone stupid enough to try and grade them all? (If so WHY?) - Now there may be a slight difference with the Roosies, but the fact remains that there are MILLIONS that are ungraded - and probably THOUSANDS that are Unc or better. The only way you'd want to ride that rocket is with someone else's money. Any "golden opportunity" exists in the recesses of your wise and prophetic mind, and the pockets of the grading services that will be enriched.
Buy the 1793 - you'll have a real treasure - buy the Roosie (especially if it's for its skyrocket investment potential) & you'll have one of millions.
JMHO - but at least thought out
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain
Newmismatist
and also vote fountainheadgold's subsequent post as most concise and erudite
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>Those who know history can predict the future. >>
Really! You must know a lot of History. - Can you pick lottery numbers also?
<< <i>The 1947-S Roosevelt doesn't have a single example graded with the FB designation. Compare that to 247 1793 Chain cents they have graded and you can begin to see the rarity here. Which would you rather own? The coin with no known examples or the coin with 247 known examples? >>
Well lets see if someone who has a little knowledge about the history of US coins can answer that (other forum members can help too as I sure don't know everything about coins - that's why I keep reading those pesky books). THe 1793 Large cent and the companion half-cent were was the 1st coins minted under the authority of the US government. If you want to complete a dated set of every date since our government began minting coins you have to acquire either a 1793 Large cent or a 1793 half-cent to complete a date set. Less than 100,000 1793 cents of all varieties were minted. When large cents were turned into the goverment in 1857 and thereafter in exchange for the new flying eagle cent, many were undoubtedly melted. Large numbers have probably been lost over the past 210 years. PCGS, your grader of choice, has graded 252 Chain cent varieties ( a one year type coin - you want a chain cent - you have to buy one of these!) with only 14 coins graded AU55 or better (only 11 MS coins). Of the Wreath variety PCGS has graded 371 coins with only 30 MS coins. So between the 2 varieties, their are only 41 total PCGS MS coins.
Now the great rarity: the 1947-S Roosie dime: Stats: 34,840,000 Minted; 1,247 graded as MS63 to MS67; 34 graded MS66FB to MS68FB - Now I'm sorry to say I don't quite know what a Roosie FB is - I assume it means full bands - I also presume it means the vertical bands on the reverse torch - the torch is NOT the highest part of the coin - hence the most receased part of the die, so a FB Rossie does not necessarily mean a sharp strike. It probably means an early strike because delicate die work gets worn quickly after several THOUSAND strikes. IF one of the Roosie dime specialists could tell us how many different reverse dies were used, you could probably predict how many FBs were struck per die and thus you could create a statistical prediction as to how many were struck - For expample if every die struck 100,000 before being replaced then approx 340 reverse dies would be used - If only the 1st 10,000 coins struck had FBs than there would only be a pool of 3,400,000 FB 1947-S Roosies - other factors might apply - maybe the master dies worn worn (not likely the series started in 1946) maybe the SF mint used a lower striking pressure to extend die life - then overall strikes would be less defined. After someone takes the knowledge to comes up with a way of getting a sample, a statistician could make a prediction as to the total potential population of FB Roosies. Another way: 1247 MS 47-S's graded and 34 FBs = 2.7% of 47-S's are struck as FBs. Out of 34.84 Million this would yield a potential of 924,715 FB 1947-S Roosies if ALL 34,840,000 Roosies were graded.
SO the answer to your question (- assuming one knows AND understands the History of coins) is that there are very few 1793 Large cents, it is an historically important coin that would be a highlight of any numismatists' collection. The 1947-S Roosie is probably as common as grains of sand on a beach, but only a small % of been graded because its really not worth very much. You could probably find many 47-S's at any large or small coin show both slabbed and raw and most have not even been looked at to see whether they have FBs (if that even matters). There is nothing particularly unusual about a 47-S Roosie dime. If you can't find a nice one today, you'll find one tomorrow. Can the same be said about the 1793 Large Cent?
<< <i>Maybe you don't want to believe the the past will repeat itself, but PCGS had a reason for adding the FB designation. Will you be the only one left out when these coins explode into the stratosphere in value? Will you be the only one left holding the Roosevelt dimes without the FB designation? Don't say I didn't warn you. Don't say David Hall didn't warn you. Don't say PCGS didn't warn you. You'll have no one to blame but yourself if you fail to take advantage of this golden opportunity. >>
The reason PCGS added the FB designation is probably the same reason why the grade lots of modern coins that come directly out of Mint sealed holders - to charge people a fee to grade coins that probably don't need to be graded (or re-graded). But the lure of profits that "explode into the stratosphere" (something like the payoff for a lottery or slot machine) will drive this market. No different that Enron, MCI-World Com, etc. etc. The greater fool theory never prevented people from "investing" money stupidly. Tulip crazes will continue as long as there are persons like yourself who can "predict the future" based on an incomplete understanding of history. I don't mind being left out of this "gamble' - If I want to gamble, I'll go to Las Vegas - At leat there you know that you're gambling - Somehow you "think" you're investing. You need to "know" some history before you can make an educated "guess" about the future. If you can predict the future based on whatever was presented by DHRC's predictions that were presented here, and you're really sure about your predication - then sell everything you own, mortgage the house and buy all those FB Roosies. I'm sure that HRH, DHRC and PCGS will do every thing they can to make sure you become a multi-millionaire in 1 year or less. THis is a "HOT" market so you'd better act quickly - don't wait or you'll miss that rocket ride. (BTW when you get up on one of those rockets, how do you get off?)
Some people cannot use their own eyes, their own common sense and their own judgement to determine that most of those coins look exactly like all the others and whatever miniscule differences there are are probably unimportant. Paying PCGS $10 or $20 to grade a common coin that looks exactly like all the other common coins is a mostly a waste of money for the collector (not always), but VERY beneficial MONITARILY for PCGS (or NGC - they like to get paid to grade coins too). It's not a good investment because there are millions of these coins available - the only question is: IS anyone stupid enough to try and grade them all? (If so WHY?) - Now there may be a slight difference with the Roosies, but the fact remains that there are MILLIONS that are ungraded - and probably THOUSANDS that are Unc or better. The only way you'd want to ride that rocket is with someone else's money. Any "golden opportunity" exists in the recesses of your wise and prophetic mind, and the pockets of the grading services that will be enriched.
Buy the 1793 - you'll have a real treasure - buy the Roosie (especially if it's for its skyrocket investment potential) & you'll have one of millions.
JMHO - but at least thought out >>
I agree. Collecting is one thing (and I do collect some moderns myself) but projecting huge future returns on a coin worth a couple of bucks out of its slab is speculative at best. I wouldn't bet my mortgage money on it. I don't know how many 1793 Chain Cents FOM has seen but I haven't seen that many. 1947 Roosevelts.......thats another story.
<< <i>I nominate the previous post by Newmismatist as the most thought out analysis of the day.
>>
I'll raise ya, post of the week.
looking forward to fom's response, fairly certain there will be none....
<< <i>
<< <i>I nominate the previous post by Newmismatist as the most thought out analysis of the day.
>>
I'll raise ya, post of the week.
looking forward to fom's response, fairly certain there will be none.... >>
Except to say that we should probably be banned.