<< <i>Modern...it's not so much adding two or three ASE's, it's the proliferation of all products. There are threads on this already, but add up what it would cost to collect one of each...that, to many people, was what modern collecting was about...now, very, very few people would even try to do that. >>
It just means you have to focus.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I was an avid collector of Silver Eagles until 1995, when Phillip Diehl decided to bundle the Proof '95-W in the expensive 4-coin Proof Gold AGE Set. Rather than rewarding the loyal customers who had bought Silver Eagles over the years, he decided to force people to shell out 40 times the cost of an ASE in order to obtain one. I didn't buy one then, and over the years I sold off all of my Silver Eagles.
A few years after, I resolved to play the game to the max - whenever I think that collector disgust or apathy points towards a low mintage issue - if I think that demand will *ultimately* happen (and that is issue-specific), then I buy as much as I can afford at the time. The Mint converted me from a collector into a somewhat cynical money-grubbing speculator.
Funny thing, is that during this process of making money speculating in Mint issues - I've discovered collecting all over again. I'm just more selective about what I collect. The Mint's gonna do what the Mint's gonna do. If you let the Mint dictate what you collect, you've lost.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Some of you guys are hysterical... The mint is simply considering expanding the ASE product line as it's one of their most successful lines of all time and it seems people are clamoring for more. You guys stating Baseballcardization are either not evaluating this clearly IMO, or your disdain for moderns simply won't allow you to say anything positive regarding them.
Excluding the 20th and 25th sets typically collectors have only had to buy three coins a year (bullion, proof, and burnished). We're talking a whopping $150 a year for ASEs in total. The mint is simply asking if they should offer different proofs, sets, burnished coins, etc. yet folks are carrying on as if we're going to have 30 choices next year. As if the choices are going to dilute demand and/or interest. So what if the mint gives two or three more ASEs per year? At that point you're talking about a half dozen coins that will cost less than $500 per year. That's an amount that even a McDonalds employee could afford...
The real issue here IMO has more to due with the TPGs than anything else. The very confusing mint attribution labels combined with the FS/ER choices makes buying ASEs confusing for anyone just starting out. The graders are giving the market what the market wants I guess, but personally I think the number of labels offered for ASEs is approaching lunacy and that's not good for the hobby IMO. For example I remember seeing multiple auctions for the 2011(S) coin shortly after the 25th sets shipped where the sellers mentioned the 25th set, but were selling the attributed bullion coin. Yes those sellers were crooked as they intended to deceive, but make not mistake the few newbies that they rooked will probably stop collecting the moment they realize they were ripped off. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but I'm much more worried about the label game with moderns than I am having two or three more ASEs to buy a year.
Some of us are old guys and have seen this movie before, with Franklin mint, with US stamps, with Cards, with Comics, with many novelty "collectibles". And you know what? Young fellers all hot and involved making money in that stuff said exactly the same kind of things you're saying above. Nevertheless, suppliers just CANNOT RESIST oversupplying and killing the market. Now, these being silver, maybe they're somewhat insulated, but us fogies also remember the silver crash of 1980-81 and the two decades of flat silver prices. As RYK said, maybe this time is different, and the laws of supply and demand will not apply, if collector interest in these levels off, or ever begins to decrease >>
Yes, and we have also seen the tech bubble and housing bubble, when everyone and their uncle was making easy money until the music stopped playing. My brother-in-law was flipping Florida real estate like I used to flip baseball cards as a kid. Of course, he ended up with two properties he could not sell and ended up losing a bundle in the end.
When it is that easy, as easy as making a phone call or ordering a parka online (okay, it was not THAT easy), it always ends badly, for some.
When you think about it rationally, why should I be able to buy something for $300 and sell it the next day for $600, over and over and over again? Talk about trees growing to the sky...
<< <i>I was an avid collector of Silver Eagles until 1995, when Phillip Diehl decided to bundle the Proof '95-W in the expensive 4-coin Proof Gold AGE Set. Rather than rewarding the loyal customers who had bought Silver Eagles over the years, he decided to force people to shell out 40 times the cost of an ASE in order to obtain one. I didn't buy one then, and over the years I sold off all of my Silver Eagles.
A few years after, I resolved to play the game to the max - whenever I think that collector disgust or apathy points towards a low mintage issue - if I think that demand will *ultimately* happen (and that is issue-specific), then I buy as much as I can afford at the time. The Mint converted me from a collector into a somewhat cynical money-grubbing speculator.
Funny thing, is that during this process of making money speculating in Mint issues - I've discovered collecting all over again. I'm just more selective about what I collect. The Mint's gonna do what the Mint's gonna do. If you let the Mint dictate what you collect, you've lost. >>
I think you are right on. I have been in the 25th game for profit but I also have a few sets that will go back for my kids. I'm very selective about what I collect but I am a collector in the end.
Currently working with nurmaler. Older transactions....circa 2011 BST transactions Gecko109, Segoja, lpinion, Agblox, oldgumballmachineswanted,pragmaticgoat, CharlieC, onlyroosies, timrutnat, ShinyThingsInPM under login lightcycler
<< <i>Modern...it's not so much adding two or three ASE's, it's the proliferation of all products. There are threads on this already, but add up what it would cost to collect one of each...that, to many people, was what modern collecting was about...now, very, very few people would even try to do that. >>
Thanks for addressing the specific point I was trying to make Leon. Whether or not the continued flood of mint offerings destroys the hobby, or potentially gives us a few low mintage gems I don't know, but I originally thought this thread was specifically about new ASEs so that's why I was emphatically stating that we're only going from 3 coins to five or six.
>>>Nevertheless, suppliers just CANNOT RESIST oversupplying and killing the market.
From the mid-80s through today I've been a collector of just about everything and have seen the above play-out time and time again just in the action figure hobby, let alone comics, cards, and everything else.
No doubt there have been plenty of threads on this topic in the past, but in light of the most recent ASE news I would be interested to hear from others regarding whether or not people think the USMint is going to essentially implode. The mint has had hundreds, if not thousands of things to buy every year since I entered coin hobby in 2007 so it's puzzling to me why everyone is so charged all of the sudden over the addition of possibly just two or three more coins. The mint has been making way too much stuff for many years now from what I've seen, but didn't they do the same thing in the 30s to a lesser degree?
<< <i>The mint has had hundreds, if not thousands of things to buy every year since I entered coin hobby in 2007 so it's puzzling to me why everyone is so charged all of the sudden over the addition of possibly just two or three more coins. >>
Had you entered the coin hobby in, say 1992, perhaps you'd have a better view of the slippery slope of product proliferation that the ASEs started jumping on in 2006. The 2011 sets had to outdo the 2006 sets (I never knew 25 ounces of silver weighed 15 pounds). Future sets have to outdo the 2011 sets.
<< <i>The mint has been making way too much stuff for many years now from what I've seen, but didn't they do the same thing in the 30s? >>
Compare and contrast the commemoratives issued by the US Mint in 1936 to those issued in 1940. This time is NOT different.
It seems the mint is ignoring their mandate a few years ago when they stated they will be limiting their offerings to the public because even the mint realized there were just too many mint products. They stopped the fractional collector bullion in 08, but something tells me they will be bringing these back too. If you don't like it, don't collect it. Nobody is forcing you to buy these. Though I do agree they may be over doing it on the ASEs. Maybe just a High Relief is Ok. I think the mint has the intention of continuing the ASE program for decades. No need to end the program as long as its a cash cow. Perhaps, it has something to do with bringing in more revenue since we are bankrupt as a country.
Did anyone last year receive a survey about the 2011 25th Anniversary Set and whether the mint should produce one?
I've been buying and reselling 'collectibles' since I was a child so I've seen more than one industry collapse already (as I stated above). Therefore I'm acutely aware of how companies/industries can cause their own demise. I realize many of the new folks on this board have very little knowledge regarding coins, and have never studied the history of the hobby, but I'm NOT one of those simpletons looking for advice on 'flipping' 25th sets . Having said that though I readily admit I have a *ton* to learn so that's why I'm always looking for input from others .
<< <i>product proliferation that the ASEs started jumping on in 2006. >>
So the general consensus amongst the old timers is that a series should never change. Is that honestly the way most of you guys feel around here? Specifically, is adding two new coins to a two coin line after a successful 20 year run really considered the beginning of 'product proliferation'?
I admit that the survey the other day was chilling on some level. The mint asked about quite a few different coins and at face value it seems like there's an outside chance we could see a dozen new coins this year. That's one way to view it I suppose, and clearly the point of view of many here. A different point of view though could be that the mint realized they fudged things up with the 30th sets (the limit should have been 1/household), so they're seeking advice so they get it right in the future. Yes it seems like no one is in charge over there on some level, but perhaps they're simply trying to put their best foot forward here with the survey. I personally don't want more ASE choices next year and hope anniversary sets remain special, but even if they do add one, two, or three new coins next year I hardly see that as the beginning of the end. Personally I'm much more concerned with how TPGs and the label game are shaping the hobby than I am a few new coins on occasion.
So the general consensus amongst the old timers is that a series should never change.
Gee, I did not read that anywhere. The big problem is that things are constantly changing, and most changes have been additions. I agree that the labeling fiasco contributes to the perception that there is more new product than there actually is. Perception becomes reality...
Now, I gotta go clear out a closet for all of the new ASE product...
<< <i>So the general consensus amongst the old timers is that a series should never change.
Gee, I did not read that anywhere. The big problem is that things are constantly changing, and most changes have been additions. I agree that the labeling fiasco contributes to the perception that there is more new product than there actually is. Perception becomes reality...
Now, I gotta go clear out a closet for all of the new ASE product... >>
I am going to clear out my closet also and sell all my coins as my wife has wanted me to do for years.
I can not afford to keep up with it any more with all the new products and labels.
<< <i>Specifically, is adding two new coins to a two coin line after a successful 20 year run really considered the beginning of 'product proliferation'? >>
The blue line is the number of distinct flavors of ASE produced by the US Mint (2008 rev. 07 was an accident and not counted). The red line is the number of distinct flavors of 1 oz. silver bullion coins with a $5 face value produced by the RCM. It looks like the US Mint is about 8 years behind the RCM.
i think a high relief, high relief proof and a reverse high relief, would be my only future interest.
the wherever it came from M burnished do nada for me, regardless of how many or what label is slapped on them. there was really nothing "new" with the 25th other than a date a new MM and supply....oh and labels up the wazoo.
nothing against the profiteers or collectors of eveything ASE
<< <i>This is directed at any single person here, but I find it laughable that some here are so smug that they seriously believe going from 3 ASEs a year to possibly four, five, or six is considered jumping the shark or Baseballcardization. Again, we're talking about just a few hundred dollars here... Heck the US Mint already gives us a half dozen different ways to buy the same quarter from them, but yet tinkering with the ASE line is considered the end? I just don't see it that way but everyone has their own opinion. Again, IMO I feel most people are less pleased with the TPGs and the label game than the actual USMint, but they're confusing the issue.
>>>But you are probably correct. The demand and capital for these ASEs is limitless, and this time is different. Now, I gotta run to order my bullion coin with the 18 packaging options, in quadruplicate, one for myself, one for each of my kids, and one to flip.
I guess sarcasm is easier than cogently refuting my prior post line by line... >>
I think the point that RYK was trying to make is not that this particular new release is -- in and of itself -- the end of the market. That would be ridiculous, and certainly not my intent .
Rather it is yet another step in the wrong direction -- the same direction that led to the downfall of baseball cards, stamps, beanie babies, etc., and even parallels to other market bubbles (real estate, dot com, etc.).
A rhetorical question: Can you really not see the forest through the trees?
And a very serious one: Why is it different this time?
Collector of Large Cents, US Type, and modern pocket change.
Comments
<< <i>Modern...it's not so much adding two or three ASE's, it's the proliferation of all products. There are threads on this already, but add up what it would cost to collect one of each...that, to many people, was what modern collecting was about...now, very, very few people would even try to do that. >>
It just means you have to focus.
A few years after, I resolved to play the game to the max - whenever I think that collector disgust or apathy points towards a low mintage issue - if I think that demand will *ultimately* happen (and that is issue-specific), then I buy as much as I can afford at the time. The Mint converted me from a collector into a somewhat cynical money-grubbing speculator.
Funny thing, is that during this process of making money speculating in Mint issues - I've discovered collecting all over again. I'm just more selective about what I collect. The Mint's gonna do what the Mint's gonna do. If you let the Mint dictate what you collect, you've lost.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Some of you guys are hysterical... The mint is simply considering expanding the ASE product line as it's one of their most successful lines of all time and it seems people are clamoring for more. You guys stating Baseballcardization are either not evaluating this clearly IMO, or your disdain for moderns simply won't allow you to say anything positive regarding them.
Excluding the 20th and 25th sets typically collectors have only had to buy three coins a year (bullion, proof, and burnished). We're talking a whopping $150 a year for ASEs in total. The mint is simply asking if they should offer different proofs, sets, burnished coins, etc. yet folks are carrying on as if we're going to have 30 choices next year. As if the choices are going to dilute demand and/or interest. So what if the mint gives two or three more ASEs per year? At that point you're talking about a half dozen coins that will cost less than $500 per year. That's an amount that even a McDonalds employee could afford...
The real issue here IMO has more to due with the TPGs than anything else. The very confusing mint attribution labels combined with the FS/ER choices makes buying ASEs confusing for anyone just starting out. The graders are giving the market what the market wants I guess, but personally I think the number of labels offered for ASEs is approaching lunacy and that's not good for the hobby IMO. For example I remember seeing multiple auctions for the 2011(S) coin shortly after the 25th sets shipped where the sellers mentioned the 25th set, but were selling the attributed bullion coin. Yes those sellers were crooked as they intended to deceive, but make not mistake the few newbies that they rooked will probably stop collecting the moment they realize they were ripped off. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but I'm much more worried about the label game with moderns than I am having two or three more ASEs to buy a year.
Some of us are old guys and have seen this movie before, with Franklin mint, with US stamps, with Cards, with Comics, with many novelty "collectibles". And you know what?
Young fellers all hot and involved making money in that stuff said exactly the same kind of things you're saying above. Nevertheless, suppliers just CANNOT RESIST oversupplying and killing the market. Now, these being silver, maybe they're somewhat insulated, but us fogies also remember the silver crash of 1980-81 and the two decades of flat silver prices. As RYK said, maybe this time is different, and the laws of supply and demand will not apply, if collector interest in these levels off, or ever begins to decrease >>
Yes, and we have also seen the tech bubble and housing bubble, when everyone and their uncle was making easy money until the music stopped playing. My brother-in-law was flipping Florida real estate like I used to flip baseball cards as a kid. Of course, he ended up with two properties he could not sell and ended up losing a bundle in the end.
When it is that easy, as easy as making a phone call or ordering a parka online (okay, it was not THAT easy), it always ends badly, for some.
When you think about it rationally, why should I be able to buy something for $300 and sell it the next day for $600, over and over and over again? Talk about trees growing to the sky...
Are you flipping parkas now? Thanks for the heads up.
<< <i>I was an avid collector of Silver Eagles until 1995, when Phillip Diehl decided to bundle the Proof '95-W in the expensive 4-coin Proof Gold AGE Set. Rather than rewarding the loyal customers who had bought Silver Eagles over the years, he decided to force people to shell out 40 times the cost of an ASE in order to obtain one. I didn't buy one then, and over the years I sold off all of my Silver Eagles.
A few years after, I resolved to play the game to the max - whenever I think that collector disgust or apathy points towards a low mintage issue - if I think that demand will *ultimately* happen (and that is issue-specific), then I buy as much as I can afford at the time. The Mint converted me from a collector into a somewhat cynical money-grubbing speculator.
Funny thing, is that during this process of making money speculating in Mint issues - I've discovered collecting all over again. I'm just more selective about what I collect. The Mint's gonna do what the Mint's gonna do. If you let the Mint dictate what you collect, you've lost. >>
I think you are right on. I have been in the 25th game for profit but I also have a few sets that will go back for my kids. I'm very selective about what I collect but I am a collector in the end.
<< <i>Modern...it's not so much adding two or three ASE's, it's the proliferation of all products. There are threads on this already, but add up what it would cost to collect one of each...that, to many people, was what modern collecting was about...now, very, very few people would even try to do that. >>
Thanks for addressing the specific point I was trying to make Leon. Whether or not the continued flood of mint offerings destroys the hobby, or potentially gives us a few low mintage gems I don't know, but I originally thought this thread was specifically about new ASEs so that's why I was emphatically stating that we're only going from 3 coins to five or six.
>>>Nevertheless, suppliers just CANNOT RESIST oversupplying and killing the market.
From the mid-80s through today I've been a collector of just about everything and have seen the above play-out time and time again just in the action figure hobby, let alone comics, cards, and everything else.
No doubt there have been plenty of threads on this topic in the past, but in light of the most recent ASE news I would be interested to hear from others regarding whether or not people think the USMint is going to essentially implode. The mint has had hundreds, if not thousands of things to buy every year since I entered coin hobby in 2007 so it's puzzling to me why everyone is so charged all of the sudden over the addition of possibly just two or three more coins. The mint has been making way too much stuff for many years now from what I've seen, but didn't they do the same thing in the 30s to a lesser degree?
<< <i>The mint has had hundreds, if not thousands of things to buy every year since I entered coin hobby in 2007 so it's puzzling to me why everyone is so charged all of the sudden over the addition of possibly just two or three more coins. >>
Had you entered the coin hobby in, say 1992, perhaps you'd have a better view of the slippery slope of product proliferation that the ASEs started jumping on in 2006. The 2011 sets had to outdo the 2006 sets (I never knew 25 ounces of silver weighed 15 pounds). Future sets have to outdo the 2011 sets.
<< <i>The mint has been making way too much stuff for many years now from what I've seen, but didn't they do the same thing in the 30s? >>
Compare and contrast the commemoratives issued by the US Mint in 1936 to those issued in 1940. This time is NOT different.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
Did anyone last year receive a survey about the 2011 25th Anniversary Set and whether the mint should produce one?
Box of 20
<< <i>product proliferation that the ASEs started jumping on in 2006. >>
So the general consensus amongst the old timers is that a series should never change. Is that honestly the way most of you guys feel around here? Specifically, is adding two new coins to a two coin line after a successful 20 year run really considered the beginning of 'product proliferation'?
I admit that the survey the other day was chilling on some level. The mint asked about quite a few different coins and at face value it seems like there's an outside chance we could see a dozen new coins this year. That's one way to view it I suppose, and clearly the point of view of many here. A different point of view though could be that the mint realized they fudged things up with the 30th sets (the limit should have been 1/household), so they're seeking advice so they get it right in the future. Yes it seems like no one is in charge over there on some level, but perhaps they're simply trying to put their best foot forward here with the survey. I personally don't want more ASE choices next year and hope anniversary sets remain special, but even if they do add one, two, or three new coins next year I hardly see that as the beginning of the end. Personally I'm much more concerned with how TPGs and the label game are shaping the hobby than I am a few new coins on occasion.
Gee, I did not read that anywhere. The big problem is that things are constantly changing, and most changes have been additions. I agree that the labeling fiasco contributes to the perception that there is more new product than there actually is. Perception becomes reality...
Now, I gotta go clear out a closet for all of the new ASE product...
<< <i>So the general consensus amongst the old timers is that a series should never change.
Gee, I did not read that anywhere. The big problem is that things are constantly changing, and most changes have been additions. I agree that the labeling fiasco contributes to the perception that there is more new product than there actually is. Perception becomes reality...
Now, I gotta go clear out a closet for all of the new ASE product... >>
I am going to clear out my closet also and sell all my coins as my wife has wanted me to do for years.
I can not afford to keep up with it any more with all the new products and labels.
<< <i>Specifically, is adding two new coins to a two coin line after a successful 20 year run really considered the beginning of 'product proliferation'? >>
The blue line is the number of distinct flavors of ASE produced by the US Mint (2008 rev. 07 was an accident and not counted). The red line is the number of distinct flavors of 1 oz. silver bullion coins with a $5 face value produced by the RCM. It looks like the US Mint is about 8 years behind the RCM.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
the wherever it came from M burnished do nada for me, regardless of how many or what label is slapped on them. there was really nothing "new" with the 25th other than a date a new MM and supply....oh and labels up the wazoo.
nothing against the profiteers or collectors of eveything ASE
It'll be like getting FREE MONEY! Selling can also be cathartic.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>This is directed at any single person here, but I find it laughable that some here are so smug that they seriously believe going from 3 ASEs a year to possibly four, five, or six is considered jumping the shark or Baseballcardization. Again, we're talking about just a few hundred dollars here... Heck the US Mint already gives us a half dozen different ways to buy the same quarter from them, but yet tinkering with the ASE line is considered the end? I just don't see it that way but everyone has their own opinion. Again, IMO I feel most people are less pleased with the TPGs and the label game than the actual USMint, but they're confusing the issue.
>>>But you are probably correct. The demand and capital for these ASEs is limitless, and this time is different. Now, I gotta run to order my bullion coin with the 18 packaging options, in quadruplicate, one for myself, one for each of my kids, and one to flip.
I guess sarcasm is easier than cogently refuting my prior post line by line... >>
I think the point that RYK was trying to make is not that this particular new release is -- in and of itself -- the end of the market. That would be ridiculous, and certainly not my intent .
Rather it is yet another step in the wrong direction -- the same direction that led to the downfall of baseball cards, stamps, beanie babies, etc., and even parallels to other market bubbles (real estate, dot com, etc.).
A rhetorical question: Can you really not see the forest through the trees?
And a very serious one: Why is it different this time?