Does anyone else think the 2011 SAE S and Rev Prf are undervalued?

idunk · December 13, 2011 11:32AM

Seems to me it's a good time to buy......any opinions?

coinkid855 · December 13, 2011 11:37AM

YES.

Solo · December 13, 2011 11:49AM

This is how I feel about the two keys at any price of $250 or less:

agentjim007 · December 13, 2011 11:51AM

NO

RedHerring · December 13, 2011 11:51AM

Prices are at, or near, a low. The demand will be sustained for years to come. The supply will not.

A PCGS 70 "set of 5" is worth $2K to me. $1300 is a steal.

philographer · December 13, 2011 12:03PM

People need to start posting about how they are giving up coin collecting, the hobby is rigged, they have lost so much money on these, etc. Then you can buy...

Rampage · December 13, 2011 12:41PM

The coins are overpriced IMO.

PinkFloyd · December 13, 2011 12:48PM

Don't know if we've reached bottom yet, but yes.

pitboss · December 13, 2011 1:24PM

yes!

notwilight · December 13, 2011 3:06PM

For the classic-only guys (some of which have already posted their uninformed opinions):

"I'll wait and pick them up at melt."

My opinion, they are way undervalued.

--Jerry

NewParadigm · December 13, 2011 3:25PM

<< For the classic-only guys (some of which have already posted their uninformed opinions):

"I'll wait and pick them up at melt."

My opinion, they are way undervalued.

--Jerry >>

Ive been waiting for the "I'll buy them when they are at melt" comment, too.

Does the Mercanti slabs add value?

Manorcourtman · December 13, 2011 6:41PM

Still more downside coming imho. Maybe a buy opportunity next spring when a true bottom is realized. The saying don't try to catch a falling knife comes to mind here. Still to much hype going on, especially 'round here.

RobertS · December 13, 2011 8:49PM

I think they are undervalued and the only people that will tell you otherwise are those that sold their set already and have no horse in the race. I think they almost pray for the set to continue to do bad in order to tell themselves how great of a decision they made. Do not get me wrong, I am glad they made some cash out of the gate, longer term I think they settled for pennies. By the way, I am not hating on those that sold early, thanks to them the market wen to crap fast and that has created buying opportunities.

pf70collector · December 13, 2011 9:32PM

The raw yes, not sure about the graded 70s. They may have reached their peak at $600-$700 levels.

ebaytrader · December 13, 2011 9:55PM

<< The raw yes, not sure about the graded 70s. They may have reached their peak at $600-$700 levels. >>

There is a differential between raw unopened sets and 70 sets that when crossed, it's time to jump on the oversold set. Right now they're moving in tandem. That may not be true a few weeks from now.

ricko · December 13, 2011 10:03PM

Overvalued... like all 'hot' new issues... they will sink much further..... check back in two years... Cheers, RickO

53BKid · December 13, 2011 10:03PM

Gosh, this recent price action shouldn't surprise anyone. Of course prices have fallen the past few weeks. We saw the same thing with the ASEs and AGE's in 2006, the first spouses in '07 etc.

Flippers flip, no?

My attitude is, let it all ring out before making a determination.

So the question is: has that happened yet. I think that's doubtful. I'm willing to give it a few weeks.

notwilight · December 13, 2011 10:11PM

<< Overvalued... like all 'hot' new issues... they will sink much further..... check back in two years... Cheers, RickO >>

Maybe you should check the UHR or the 2006 set. While you're at it compare mintages of the 2006 set and the 2011 set. --Jerry

notwilight · December 13, 2011 10:13PM

<< 

<< For the classic-only guys (some of which have already posted their uninformed opinions):

"I'll wait and pick them up at melt."

My opinion, they are way undervalued.

--Jerry >>

Ive been waiting for the "I'll buy them when they are at melt" comment, too.

Does the Mercanti slabs add value? >>

The Mercanti label will be the mose desirable long term. Mercanti's initials are on the reverse of the coin and astute collectors will appreciate the original signature. Right now, the sellers who are dumping and driving prices down have more Mercantis so those are weaker. I would pick up Mercanti 70 sets. they are way too cheap right now. --Jerry

icsoccer · December 13, 2011 10:54PM

yes

2manycoins2fewfunds · December 13, 2011 11:04PM

Remember.........."Price is truth"

You have to compare them to other known established keys and then make an analysis.........

For other key ASEs raw examples.............mintages.............appox. prices

1995-W.....................30,000.............$2300-2600
07/08........................45,000.............$375-425
2011 Rev Pr + S.....100,000...........$??????
2006 Rev PR...........250,000...........$200-250

Considering these 2011s are newly released and still in dispersal phase current prices seem about right IMO.

7Jaguars · December 13, 2011 11:04PM

Opened sets, I think 600-700 a good number. I do NOT feel a serious collector base, but flippers galore waiting for the next train to jump on.
Slabbed 70s fate depends IMO on what happens to slabbed moderns in general for the long run.

PinkFloyd · December 14, 2011 11:58AM

<< Remember.........."Price is truth"

You have to compare them to other known established keys and then make an analysis.........

For other key ASEs raw examples.............mintages.............appox. prices

1995-W.....................30,000.............$2300-2600
07/08........................45,000.............$375-425
2011 Rev Pr + S.....100,000...........$??????
2006 Rev PR...........250,000...........$200-250

Considering these 2011s are newly released and still in dispersal phase current prices seem about right IMO. >>

The only problem with throwing 07/08 into the mix is that is a variety, not an actual mintmark differentiation. IMO the 11-S and/or 11-RP may beat or exceed 07/08 prices in the long haul.

jmski52 · December 14, 2011 12:12PM

Yes, I think that both coins are currently undervalued - but it's still fairly early. In 2006, the Anniversary Sets didn't sell out for months and it took some time for the market to digest them, then they accelerated.

This time around, we are dealing with an immediate sellout and a mintage that is 40% of the 2006 Set mintage, with 2 keys instead of 1 key. We are still in the phase where the market is digesting the flipper inventory, but when these two keys accelerate I expect them to bounce proportionately higher than the 2006 key did.

The only caveat will be the economy, and I might expect a sour economy to dampen the potential a little bit. But, yes - still undervalued, imo.

derryb · December 14, 2011 12:43PM

ericj96 · December 14, 2011 2:14PM

I bought three 2011S MS-70 issues to finish out some five coin anniversary sets last night buy it now for $385each . I am working my way into 7 out of 10 25th sets making consistent label 70 sets. I have ended up with 3 extra 2011s ms-69 coins and 4 extra 2011w coins. My goal is to get as many sets as I can together without "spending any money". Then I just want to sit down on them. I sold four 2006 reverse proof ASEs pr-70s for $400 each to change horses. While the dumpers dump be picky picky picky about quality while you can do so for very little mark up over the typical $600-800 price range. I am bringing in 70 sets for between $585 and $700 per set.

The Mint management is a little defensive about how few of these sets were made and felt the need to give justification for the 100,000 mintage number to coin world, members of Congress etc and I just don,t see them making the same silver eagle special issue mistake again in 2016. Yes this set is going to stand as a serious set in the modern silver dollar market for a while. Demand will march on but the glut will not. When these coins were announced some people were lining up to sell them at $385 a set which was nuts. When the first few got issued if you were able to get your order in early and grade them quickly and dump them to your impatient neighbors for 4-8 times what you paid for them then it was an opportunity worth going after. Now the sky is falling and the flippers are having a hard time making money because they are stumbling all over each other to dump material that from a series date and mint mark stand point is either the outright ruler of the a 300,000,000 member silver dollar series or the semi key to the largest proof silver dollar population there is.

I'm thankful to have been able to buy some from the mint even if they did come in later in the shipment cycle and then fix my sets short comings at very little cost do to the grade and dump glut. Its all working out fine.

wondercoin · December 14, 2011 2:42PM

"For other key ASEs raw examples.............mintages.............appox. prices

1995-W.....................30,000.............$2300-2600
07/08........................45,000.............$375-425
2011 Rev Pr + S.....100,000...........$??????
2006 Rev PR...........250,000...........$200-250"

In my view, not a fair comparison, as the 07/08 is a variety coin that typically fetches less than a "regular issue". Just my 2 cents.

Wondercoin

mikeyg · December 15, 2011 5:09AM

IMHO the prices on e bay are fair.I see 69s going for $270 to $325 and the 70s selling for $450 and up.My plan is to undercut all of you by buying no mint marks in 70 for a song and corner the market on them.

2manycoins2fewfunds · December 15, 2011 5:49AM

<< "For other key ASEs raw examples.............mintages.............appox. prices

1995-W.....................30,000.............$2300-2600
07/08........................45,000.............$375-425
2011 Rev Pr + S.....100,000...........$??????
2006 Rev PR...........250,000...........$200-250"

In my view, not a fair comparison, as the 07/08 is a variety coin that typically fetches less than a "regular issue". Just my 2 cents.

Wondercoin >>

.........................................................................................................

I would expect any collector spending the money to have a set of ASEs that included the 1995-W and both Anniversary sets would almost certainly want to have an example of the 07/08 in their collection..............variety or not.

It wasn't included to raise or lower price estimate for the 2011 keys, it simply represented another ASE example where both market price and mintage data was known.

pf70collector · December 15, 2011 6:22AM

I am not sure I would want to hold alot of 70 graded sets for a long time. Only because of the spotting issues. I have had several of my 06 PCGS Anniversary Sets spot up on me in the past two years. I bought one 25th Anniv 70 PCGS Set for my collection. My grades from my 2 NGC sets I sent in are 7 70's out of 10. 2 MS W and 1 Regular PF Cameo are 69s all the rest are 70s. I will have to buy from ebay the MS Ws to have at least one complete NGC 70 set. The rest of my sets from the mint will remained sealed for now.

crypto79 · December 15, 2011 6:26AM

The mintage isn't to only barometer toward value and we will see where they end up but right now I think the are overvalued and over hyped. Any correlation to their value taken now is overly influenced by the hype from all of the wholesalers and we wont know till the initial wave has died down. I do guarantee that we have not seen the bottom yet, so to me the better question is do these have long term value at these levels? I don't personally think so, they might never go back to 300$ but like the 20th they will probably never come close to their highs again either.

crypto79 · December 15, 2011 6:26AM

packers88 · December 15, 2011 6:59AM

1995 w $3000 mintage about 31,000 1/3 as rare as the 2011 reverse proof and "S" 1/3 of $3000 is $1000. $1000 times 2 key coins with 100k mintage equals $2000 plus the other 3 at $200 equals about $2200. Yes, way undervalued. Obviously, it is not as simple as crunching numbers but this does put into perspective that there is an argument here that $700 for a 69 set is way too low..

RedHerring · December 15, 2011 7:03AM

Just wait it out. We'll all know in a year or two. Strong hands are getting ahold of these. Weak hands will be out of it by next spring.

My money is on higher prices. Much higher..........

NewParadigm · December 15, 2011 7:06AM

<< 1995 w $3000 mintage about 31,000 1/3 as rare as the 2011 reverse proof and "S" 1/3 of $3000 is $1000. $1000 times 2 key coins with 100k mintage equals $2000 plus the other 3 at $200 equals about $2200. Yes, way undervalued. Obviously, it is not as simple as crunching numbers but this does put into perspective that there is an argument here that $700 for a 69 set is way too low.. >>

Yep, the '95 is approx. 3000 for a 69

57loaded · December 15, 2011 7:09AM

i think they are definitely under valued.

but like a lot of other things that's not a reason to buy.

JohnMaben · December 15, 2011 7:27AM

I believe prices at sub $1200 for 70 sets they have hit bottom and will rise slowly and steadily beginning Jan 1st. I also believethe 11-S and RP are important modern coins that smart buyers should be loading up on. I am still paying $180 for PF69 and $400 for PF70 2006 RP's that are 100% spot free (the 70's). Am I stupid for paying that on these or are the 2011 a screaming buy?

John

pcgs69 · December 15, 2011 7:57AM

just because one think it's undervalued, doesn't mean it actually is undervalued.

NewParadigm · December 15, 2011 8:11AM

<< i think they are definitely under valued.

but like a lot of other things that's not a reason to buy. >>

If it does not reflect its true value, then why not buy? If the value is not truly more, then it would not be undervalued.

packers88 · December 15, 2011 8:12AM

Also will these be promoted and hoarded? A company or someone with deep pockets could load up on 4,000 or 5,000 sets and then start bidding prices up to ridiculous levels and then begin dumping for substantial profits. For example, someone buys 4,000 sets for around $750 they have $3 million into them.. Now they start buying up inventory on ebay and elsewhere with high bid prices to drive up prices. Prices start going up and then the snowball effect takes place where others see these beginning to move and they want to jump on the train which in turn increases prices even more. It becomes a self fullfilling prohecy that the train is taken off like it did for the 2006 sets and boom there goes the prices. The person who bought the 4,000 sets is now up to 7000 sets by their continous increase in bids with an average cost of $1000 per set, but now prices are at $2000 a set and they are sitting on $14 million in market value with a $7 million dollar investment. Of course, they need to liquidate them and they would need to do so gradually. We are just waiting for iginition right now then its take off.

Solo · December 15, 2011 8:42AM

With raw sets available at $550-$600 that places the value on the keys at roughly $200each currently. Considering the reverse proof with a 250,000 mintage was worth $180-$400 before the 25th set madness began that indicates to me the keys to this set are definitely undervalued right now. As such I'm buying all that I can and hope to see prices fall further.

The legacy collectors can scoff about people paying more than melt for these, but I believe in the ASE story so to speak and this set is quite significant. I have no doubt that this time next year the keys will be worth more than they are now. I'm not saying they'll be worth $1000, but to think they'll stay around $200/$250ea just doesn't make sense IMO. To each their own though...

<< Also will these be promoted and hoarded? A company or someone with deep pockets could load up >>

I know of several people who have hoarded away 50+ sets or keys at this point and although I don't think your scenario is feasible, I do believe that as prices fall dealers with money and time on their side have a serious amount of upside potential with these with very little downside risk if purchased at $600/set or less. I just wish I had deeper pockets

.

66Tbird · December 15, 2011 9:40AM

No big long answer needed on this on. The market is really flooded, they are undervalued.

Cakes · December 15, 2011 10:27AM

<< No big long answer needed on this on. The market is really flooded, they are undervalued. >>

Agreed

7Jaguars · December 15, 2011 10:35AM

Methinks not by much and it is only hoarding that is holding it where it is. Can you imagine if each person holding were really a collector and holding only one set? Yikes, this thing would be not much above issue.

Solo · December 15, 2011 10:47AM

n/m

ericj96 · December 15, 2011 1:44PM

<< "For other key ASEs raw examples.............mintages.............appox. prices

1995-W.....................30,000.............$2300-2600
07/08........................45,000.............$375-425
2011 Rev Pr + S.....100,000...........$??????
2006 Rev PR...........250,000...........$200-250"

In my view, not a fair comparison, as the 07/08 is a variety coin that typically fetches less than a "regular issue". Just my 2 cents.

Wondercoin

I agree with Mitch. Die variety rarity is not as strong a form of product differentiation as mint marks are.

The main thing that may help help the 2008wRev07 over time is there are relatively few of them and the 47000 number is likely wrong and high. As you know I have been doing more scrounging around for data than usual lately and in a new section on the 08r07 coin we look at the range in which this coin likely falls and why based on mint records.

But those details are for another day......

Eric

ericj96 · December 15, 2011 1:49PM

<< I believe prices at sub $1200 for 70 sets they have hit bottom and will rise slowly and steadily beginning Jan 1st. I also believethe 11-S and RP are important modern coins that smart buyers should be loading up on. I am still paying $180 for PF69 and $400 for PF70 2006 RP's that are 100% spot free (the 70's). Am I stupid for paying that on these or are the 2011 a screaming buy?

John >>

I agree with John

PinkFloyd · December 15, 2011 2:02PM

I haven't really actively followed silver eagles in the past. If these are going to spot up, how quickly does it usually happen? Is there a certain length of time that elapses and then you can be more certain you're in the clear?

ericj96 · December 15, 2011 2:06PM

My lock box cycle time is 18-36 months. In my box some holder types tend to spot up more than others.

RedHerring · December 15, 2011 2:16PM

<< ...If these are going to spot up, how quickly does it usually happen?... >>

No expert here but the current round of weak handed flippers should be routed by late winter. Most will be gone by late January.

We'll need to wait until next fall for true value readings on these. PCGS 70 sets at $2K is a reasonable assumption based on the mintage and established collector base.

PinkFloyd · December 15, 2011 2:22PM

I didn't explain myself very well. I'm wondering how long it usually takes ASEs to develop spots (if they develop at all). Probably a better post for the monster thread as I'm getting kind of OT.

Does anyone else think the 2011 SAE S and Rev Prf are undervalued?

Comments

Leave a Comment