<< <i> We have flippers, set builders, First Strikers, Boxers, double dippers, ebayers, naysayers, Johnny-come-lately-ers, boy-cotters, dog-pilers, I-didn't-get-mine'rs, and standbyers all weighing in with well-minded clairvoyance. >>
Awesome post Sir ! I find many of the posts in this thread flat out laughable. We have simpletons who have never studied modern mint releases calling tops when these things haven't even finished shipping yet. Funny stuff indeed...
<< <i>Geezz.. I Don't know,,, a $500 drop,,, Seems like A Rock to me.. Thats more than Half... >>
I think where the economy is now, these sets did well. In 2006, things were a lot better and people had jobs and money to spend. I believe with the quantity being so much lower for this set, there will always be collectors, opportunists, etc, willing to pay a premium for them. It is early in the game. This mania has played out as expected up to now. Prices have peaked on raw sets and now the next stage is coming upon us for those who want graded sets. It is hard to guage what a healthier economy would do for this set. It will be fun to see where it goes. I will be an interested spectator.
<< <i>I don't know if I am a winner or not but I have sold 10 of my 14 sets so far and have doubled my money and still have 4 sets to go. Two are off to ANACS and I have one sealed set and one opened set. >>
I'm a PCGS'r. What kind of premium do you expect from ANACS 70's? >>
I think having a graded set is valuable. ANACS puts 25th Anniversary Set labels on these sets. If someone doesn't care about going with the PCGS or NGC, they still get what they want at a lower cost.
Prices peaking on raw sets???.........you ain't seen nothing yet.......give it some time when the real public get wind of these sets............not just a bunch of coin people and their friends & family............some people just could care less about graded coins..............they will just want to have this set in their collection.........and if they could eyeball the beauty it will be a sellers dream.............
Is anyone ever going to catch wind of the 2011 1 oz proof platinum coins with about 11,500 in total sales (15,000 max mintage) with no MS platinum for the year, with no 1/10, 1/4 or 1/2 oz coins for the year in either MS or proof ... meaning there are only 11,500 sold thus far of any US platinum coin for 2011 that show the year 2011 on them. Yet, they trade about 10% over melt to this day? How exciting can I get for the 100,000 mintage coins when the 12,000 mintage coins are near worthless? Wondercoin
P.S. Sorry for the "rant"
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Collector base............ASE probably 200K or more..........platinum.........maybe 20K...............gold somewhere in the middle.............who collects the most???
I'm surprised that the 2011-P Reverse Proof is fetching a higher price than the 2011-S burnished - I would have expected the opposite, given that uncirculated Silver Eagles are far more widely collected than proofs. The only explanation that makes sense to me is that burnished coins in general are "orphans", widely ignored by collectors of proof and uncirculated coins alike.
This would explain why burnished 2007 and 2008 "W" Silver Eagles, with mintages of less than 500K, are priced lower than 1996 bullion Silver Eagles, with a mintage of over 3 million. Or why the 2008-W burnished Platinum Eagles (all sizes) are cheaper than the corresponding proofs with considerably higher mintages. Even burnished coins in circulating coin series, such as 1998-S silver Kennedy halves and 2009-PD bronze Lincoln cents, are selling far below prices that would seemingly be justified by their scarcity.
Since most collectors do not consider burnished coins necessary to complete their uncirculated sets, this situation is likely to continue until the burnished coins are recognized as separate, distinct and worthwhile series of their own.
<< <i>Collector base............ASE probably 200K or more..........platinum.........maybe 20K...............gold somewhere in the middle.............who collects the most??? >>
Dice and Wondercoin, I'd be surprised if the real platinum collector base is more than 2 or 3K. Sure, some of us are fans, but there are many, many issues below 11K mintage that don't seem to have moved at all, while as we all know, other issues have fallen dramatically. This series just seems cold right now, and I am as mystified as anyone else given all it has going for it. And yes, I do blame the economy mostly. As others have indicated, probably a good time to complete your collections, if you've got the cash.
<< <i>Well,,, Maybe to some people "Dropping" $500 is not such a BIG Deal,,,, Get A Hair cut,, And get A real job.... >>
That would only bother me if I bought at $800.....I bought MANY sets and none were over $150/each with most being at the $100 issue price. NGC 70 graded sets always sold for over a grand each and I got plenty of them back....
AS I look at it worse case I did 250-350% gain on my purchases...best case 1000+%
No rocks there.....
You can't use the absolute peak of the market as your reference point.....since it is "the peak" it will never be surpassed
<< <i>Is anyone ever going to catch wind of the 2011 1 oz proof platinum coins with about 11,500 in total sales (15,000 max mintage) with no MS platinum for the year, with no 1/10, 1/4 or 1/2 oz coins for the year in either MS or proof ... meaning there are only 11,500 sold thus far of any US platinum coin for 2011 that show the year 2011 on them. Yet, they trade about 10% over melt to this day? How exciting can I get for the 100,000 mintage coins when the 12,000 mintage coins are near worthless? Wondercoin
P.S. Sorry for the "rant" >>
I think you make the case that there is no interest in that platinum issue regardless of the mintage numbers....
This set includes the lowest mintage non-proof Silver Eagle ever.....and... the 2nd lowest mintage Proof (actually RP) issue ever....and, most importantly, the collector base most likely exceeds the number of sets created.
<< <i> How exciting can I get for the 100,000 mintage coins when the 12,000 mintage coins are near worthless >>
I agree with some other posters, it is still too early to say if we will see a prolonged downward price trend on the 25th Anniversery SAE sets. But I don't think so.
I think we are seeing a flood sets hitting the market as flippers and those with weaker hands sell.
My opinion is that once the supply starts to dry up, and the sets get more widely dispersed, and promoted, collector and investor demand will drive prices up. I don't need to sell so I am going to hold onto my sets (sealed) for now.
I've been wrong on these types of decisions before, so I would love to hear other opinions.
The Mint is missing a fabulous opportunity to produce Gold and Platinum Anniversary issues with a Reverse Proof as the centerpiece. But, that's the Mint as usual, isn't it?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Still holding 25 sets, possiblly 30 sets. Box of Five going for $4300. I haven't seen these sealed sets fall in price yet only rising. I don't think we have reached the peak yet.
<< <i>Still holding 25 sets, possiblly 30 sets. Box of Five going for $4300. I haven't seen these sealed sets fall in price yet only rising. I don't think we have reached the peak yet. >>
I would expect a drop in slabbed prices to have a negative affect on what speculators will pay for sealed multiple sets. A sudden downturn in slabbed prices (which is not unusual as they all hit the market) would cause me to reconsider holding sealed sets much longer.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Still holding 25 sets, possiblly 30 sets. Box of Five going for $4300. I haven't seen these sealed sets fall in price yet only rising. I don't think we have reached the peak yet.
Yes, further rise is still possible if not likely but... With profit approaching a triple so soon, you know what they say about pigs.... Best of luck to ya.
In order to correctly interpret the price action of 25 ASE sets, we should not ignore the price action of SLV. Given SLV's 6-7% drop last week and the huge initial supply from people maxed out their cc, the price action of 25 ASE has so far been much stronger than what I expected.
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
<< <i>Is anyone ever going to catch wind of the 2011 1 oz proof platinum coins with about 11,500 in total sales (15,000 max mintage) with no MS platinum for the year, with no 1/10, 1/4 or 1/2 oz coins for the year in either MS or proof ... meaning there are only 11,500 sold thus far of any US platinum coin for 2011 that show the year 2011 on them. Yet, they trade about 10% over melt to this day? How exciting can I get for the 100,000 mintage coins when the 12,000 mintage coins are near worthless? Wondercoin
(Disclaimer #1........Before I start let me say I do NOT collect Silver eagles..........if anything based on holdings you'd say I'm a platinum collector. With that disclaimer let me try to answer Wondercoins question)
(Disclaimer #2.....following discussion is for raw coins avoiding inherent confusion of FS vs. Non FS, PR69 vs PR70, PCGS vs. NGC vs ANAC) ...............................
Those 11,000 2011 platinum coins have a cost of acqusition of appox. $22 million
Entry level is over $2,000 per coin annually.
Based on these numbers we can say at most there are currently only 10K-12K active platinum collectors who have the interest and funds to invest in 1 ounce platinum collectable coins on a recurring yearly basis.
The number of collectors with interest and funds to collect multiple years and in particular collect and hold numerous prior years AND various denominations is almost certainly less than 10K.
This explains why there has not been more of an explosive rise in price for the rarest of platinum issues with mintages below 3,000.
Even for these coins the mis-match between total active APE collectors and coins available is only 3x-4x at most.
This relatively low mis-match ratio explains why for even the rarest APEs the price is at most little more than 3-4X the base price of the coin
NOW CONSIDER SILVER EAGLES...................
Not even considering the bullion silver eagles lets just look at the annual proof eagle production numbers as a rough measure of interest.
Very little reason to hoard proof silver eagles............numbers sold likely is as good a measure of depth of ASE collecting market at least as much so as the annual Platinum proof sales is of the platinum collector market.
So....what do the proof silver eagle annual sales show??
800,000 potential silver eagle collectors based on 800,000+ annual silver eagle proof sales.
Now consider 800,000 collectors vs the 30,000 1995-W coins.
That 25 to 1 mismatch helps explain why the 1995-W proof sells for $3,000...........50X the base price of a proof ASE.
For the 2011 Reverse Proof it is a 8 to 1 mismatch between available coins and collector base.
This bodes well for the 2011 reverse proof but it also explains why long term it will likely struggle beyond $1000-$1,500 per raw example.
Conclusion.........When considering entry cost, annual cost to continue a series, cost to try to complete a series and the size of collector base to various mintages, the ASE collector market has far better fundamentals than the APE collector market.
This same exercise can be applied to the First Spouse collector market where based on annual sales the true collector base (Those willing to buy every new offering) is almost certainly below 4,000-3,500.
Here the mis-match between collector base and lowest mintage is likely no more than 2 to 1.
Unless there is a very rare FS in the future or a significant expansion in FS collector base than the relative price performance of current rarer examples vs. base coins may be rather muted.
Always remember Price is not a product of mintage alone.
<< This same exercise can be applied to the First Spouse collector market where based on annual sales the true collector base (Those willing to buy every new offering) is almost certainly below 4,000-3,500. Here the mis-match between collector base and lowest mintage is likely no more than 2 to 1. >>
I would say the demand is at least double for the 4-coin "Liberty" subset, which is already starting to show a significant premium compared to other First Spouses with similar mintages.
<< Now consider 800,000 collectors vs the 30,000 1995-W coins. That 25 to 1 mismatch helps explain why the 1995-W proof sells for $3,000...........50X the base price of a proof ASE. For the 2011 Reverse Proof it is a 8 to 1 mismatch between available coins and collector base. This bodes well for the 2011 reverse proof but it also explains why long term it will likely struggle beyond $1000-$1,500 per raw example. >>
With the price of a raw 2006-P Reverse Proof (mintage 250K) at around $215, and the price of the 1995-W Proof (mintage 30K) at around $2800, I would estimate fair value for a raw 2011-P Reverse Proof (mintage 100K) at about $650, meaning that it's currently underpriced by about $250, and so is the five-coin 25th Anniversary Set.
Edited to add: I'm noticing that the number of 25th Anniversary sets available on eBay is steadily declining. I'm expecting that the price of these sets will begin rising again when the initial flips are over and done with.
These will be selling higher in one year. Remember the 2009 Ultra High Reliefs?...there used to be a million for sale on eBay...and the price dropped...then suddenly there weren't as many listed and the price rose...and continues to rise to this day.
Picture the 5 coins in the long blue box...it looks just amazing. If you have the disposable income, why wouldn't you buy? These are going higher.
The 5-ounce America the Beautiful cartoon quarters...they are ugly, ugly, ugly. Who could love such a thing? There is no inherent beauty and so we have a pop and a drop…the price comes down.
Mark my words, the 25th Anniversary set...the price will rise.
Seeing prices from $3900-$4200 tonight for sealed boxes of 5 and around $750 for opened single sets. Looks to me like stabilization. Historically, prices on flips seem to have gotten beatdowns on Sunday nights but these sets do have legs.
Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
<< <i>Anybody check out current bids for the RP and The"S" Coin being sold as singles on e-bay???...........OH yeah this set has long legs yet!! >>
Reverse Proof around $390, 2011-S burnished around $320, three remaining coins with box $190, total $900. Currently the sets are worth more split up than intact. This will change.
<< <i>Reverse Proof around $390, 2011-S burnished around $320, three remaining coins with box $190, total $900. Currently the sets are worth more split up than intact. This will change. >>
Not anymore..They'll be getting more expensive, and you'll see fewer transactions on ebay. I just now sold my sealed box of 2 for $1,800, $900 per set, unopened/sealed (there's REALGATOR'S 'triple' he spoke of). The buyer suggested we go off ebay and I bill him straight through PP so I could get almost all the money and feebay none. Saved at least $162 in FVF that way. The buyer REALLY wanted them BAD....and to think HE suggested we go off ebay! I'll be happy with that sale...now, I just hope my backordered set from 5:20pm comes through, 'cause these are not done rising, yet, I believe. To think I considered grading them..... shipping, return, insurance, grading fees, FS fee....and if I got 69's (or a 70 with a scratch)......I'll be happy with the sale I just made....raw sets will do much much better than 69 sets.
Those that say the bubble burst, 2 sets for $900 each....doesn't seem the fire's out by a longshot....unless mine was an anomaly. And the great thing is, the $$ is already gone from PP to my bank acct. If prices do decline, I'm ready to pick up a RP and the 'S'mint, and still have a nice profit....then again, should my backordered order come through, I'll sell one opened set, keep one, and be a very happy camper. I am now!
edited....my original opening price was ALOT lower than $1,800....buyer just stepped up, and swung at the pitch.
<< <i>Reverse Proof around $390, 2011-S burnished around $320, three remaining coins with box $190, total $900. Currently the sets are worth more split up than intact. This will change. >>
Not anymore..They'll be getting more expensive, and you'll see fewer transactions on ebay. I just now sold my sealed box of 2 for $1,800, $900 per set, unopened/sealed (there's REALGATOR'S 'triple' he spoke of). The buyer suggested we go off ebay and I bill him straight through PP so I could get almost all the money and feebay none. Saved at least $162 in FVF that way. The buyer REALLY wanted them BAD....and to think HE suggested we go off ebay! I'll be happy with that sale...now, I just hope my backordered set from 5:20pm comes through, 'cause these are not done rising, yet, I believe. To think I considered grading them..... shipping, return, insurance, grading fees, FS fee....and if I got 69's (or a 70 with a scratch)......I'll be happy with the sale I just made....raw sets will do much much better than 69 sets.
Those that say the bubble burst, 2 sets for $900 each....doesn't seem the fire's out by a longshot....unless mine was an anomaly. And the great thing is, the $$ is already gone from PP to my bank acct. If prices do decline, I'm ready to pick up a RP and the 'S'mint, and still have a nice profit....then again, should my backordered order come through, I'll sell one opened set, keep one, and be a very happy camper. I am now!
edited....my original opening price was ALOT lower than $1,800....buyer just stepped up, and swung at the pitch. >>
Good for you! I need a buyer like that I have a set of 4 unopened (for a friend) and a set of 3 unopened (for a relative) to sell.....just haven't done the ebay thing yet.
Glad you got the $900 and off-ebay for the fee savings!
Recent sales of JUST the reverse proof coin in PCGS 70.............1299.99,1126.00,1300.00 on e-bay also an "S" in pcgs 70 sold for 790.00...............
<< <i>In order to correctly interpret the price action of 25 ASE sets, we should not ignore the price action of SLV. Given SLV's 6-7% drop last week and the huge initial supply from people maxed out their cc, the price action of 25 ASE has so far been much stronger than what I expected. >>
SLV has nothing to do with a silver coin that was obviously underpriced by the mint at twice the spot price. Anyone trading in these for silver content needs to focus on baseball cards.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
<< <i>In order to correctly interpret the price action of 25 ASE sets, we should not ignore the price action of SLV. Given SLV's 6-7% drop last week and the huge initial supply from people maxed out their cc, the price action of 25 ASE has so far been much stronger than what I expected. >>
SLV has nothing to do with a silver coin that was obviously underpriced by the mint at twice the spot price. Anyone trading in these for silver content needs to focus on baseball cards. >>
Of course SLV and 25 ASE belong to two different asset classes (precious metal vs numismatic coins). Nevertheless, no one can ignore the fact that there is signficantly positive CORRELATION between the PRICE ACTION of the two asset classes. Rememeber how the silver coin market reacted when Hunts Brotheir cornored the SLV market back in 70s?
My point here is that, to better interpret the price action of 25 ASE, we should use SLV as monetary unit instead if using some fiat money.
Anyone ignoring the positive correlation between the two asset classes should retake FIN 101.
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
<< <i>SLV has nothing to do with a silver coin that was obviously underpriced by the mint at twice the spot price. Anyone trading in these for silver content needs to focus on baseball cards. >>
I agree with DerryB. SLV has absolutely nothing to do with the SAE 25th set prices. You might as well equate SLV with Bust Dollars or Gobrecht Dollars while you're at it. It makes just as much sense...
<< <i>In order to correctly interpret the price action of 25 ASE sets, we should not ignore the price action of SLV. Given SLV's 6-7% drop last week and the huge initial supply from people maxed out their cc, the price action of 25 ASE has so far been much stronger than what I expected. >>
SLV has nothing to do with a silver coin that was obviously underpriced by the mint at twice the spot price. Anyone trading in these for silver content needs to focus on baseball cards. >>
Of course SLV and 25 ASE belong to two different asset classes (precious metal vs numismatic coins). Nevertheless, no one can ignore the fact that there is signficantly positive CORRELATION between the PRICE ACTION of the two asset classes. Rememeber how the silver coin market reacted when Hunts Brotheir cornored the SLV market back in 70s?
My point here is that, to better interpret the price action of 25 ASE, we should use SLV as monetary unit instead if using some fiat money.
Anyone ignoring the positive correlation between the two asset classes should retake FIN 101. >>
If you're referring to the silver IShares ETF use "SLV." If you're referring to the silver spot price call it "silver."
If you want to interpret the price action of 25th ASE Sets, best to do it with dollars, because in most cases that's what you have to trade for them. The only correlation between SLV (and silver spot) and 25th ASE sets is that speculators are driving prices. Anything else is coincidence. SLV/silver affects ASE Set prices about as much as it does early commemorative silver halves - it doesn't. The only affect the silver market has on the price of silver collector coins is to set a bottom price which is determined by the weight of the silver in the coin. The price of silver does affect bullion ASE prices as well as "junk" silver coin prices but only when being bought or sold for their silver content. I seriously doubt most people making a decision on buying or what to pay for the ASE Set are thinking about the price of silver or how much silver is in each of the coins. Collector coins containing silver are an entirely different market than the silver market.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Reverse Proof, Minted S, Regular Bullion also minted with special finish. Now three unique coins in the set. I still think the set will command $1K raw. Opened or Unopened.
Comments
<< <i> We have flippers, set builders, First Strikers, Boxers, double dippers, ebayers, naysayers, Johnny-come-lately-ers, boy-cotters, dog-pilers, I-didn't-get-mine'rs, and standbyers all weighing in with well-minded clairvoyance. >>
Awesome post Sir
<< <i>Geezz.. I Don't know,,, a $500 drop,,, Seems like A Rock to me.. Thats more than Half... >>
I think where the economy is now, these sets did well. In 2006, things were a lot better and people had jobs and money to spend. I believe with the quantity being so much lower for this set, there will always be collectors, opportunists, etc, willing to pay a premium for them. It is early in the game. This mania has played out as expected up to now. Prices have peaked on raw sets and now the next stage is coming upon us for those who want graded sets. It is hard to guage what a healthier economy would do for this set. It will be fun to see where it goes. I will be an interested spectator.
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't know if I am a winner or not but I have sold 10 of my 14 sets so far and have doubled my money and still have 4 sets to go. Two are off to ANACS and I have one sealed set and one opened set. >>
I'm a PCGS'r. What kind of premium do you expect from ANACS 70's? >>
I think having a graded set is valuable. ANACS puts 25th Anniversary Set labels on these sets. If someone doesn't care about going with the PCGS or NGC, they still get what they want at a lower cost.
P.S. Sorry for the "rant"
how about the 2011 Spouses at 1/3 of the total 11,500 1oz Plat mintage that the USM is still begging people to buy (unsucessfully i might add)
The moral of that story is no one is buying gold and platinum right now.
Wondercoin
This would explain why burnished 2007 and 2008 "W" Silver Eagles, with mintages of less than 500K, are priced lower than 1996 bullion Silver Eagles, with a mintage of over 3 million. Or why the 2008-W burnished Platinum Eagles (all sizes) are cheaper than the corresponding proofs with considerably higher mintages. Even burnished coins in circulating coin series, such as 1998-S silver Kennedy halves and 2009-PD bronze Lincoln cents, are selling far below prices that would seemingly be justified by their scarcity.
Since most collectors do not consider burnished coins necessary to complete their uncirculated sets, this situation is likely to continue until the burnished coins are recognized as separate, distinct and worthwhile series of their own.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Collector base............ASE probably 200K or more..........platinum.........maybe 20K...............gold somewhere in the middle.............who collects the most??? >>
Dice and Wondercoin, I'd be surprised if the real platinum collector base is more than 2 or 3K. Sure, some of us are fans, but there are many, many issues below 11K mintage that don't seem to have moved at all, while as we all know, other issues have fallen dramatically. This series just seems cold right now, and I am as mystified as anyone else given all it has going for it. And yes, I do blame the economy mostly. As others have indicated, probably a good time to complete your collections, if you've got the cash.
<< <i>Well,,, Maybe to some people "Dropping" $500 is not such a BIG Deal,,,, Get A Hair cut,, And get A real job.... >>
That would only bother me if I bought at $800.....I bought MANY sets and none were over $150/each with most being at the $100 issue price. NGC 70 graded sets always sold for over a grand each and I got plenty of them back....
AS I look at it worse case I did 250-350% gain on my purchases...best case 1000+%
No rocks there.....
You can't use the absolute peak of the market as your reference point.....since it is "the peak" it will never be surpassed
<< <i>Is anyone ever going to catch wind of the 2011 1 oz proof platinum coins with about 11,500 in total sales (15,000 max mintage) with no MS platinum for the year, with no 1/10, 1/4 or 1/2 oz coins for the year in either MS or proof ... meaning there are only 11,500 sold thus far of any US platinum coin for 2011 that show the year 2011 on them. Yet, they trade about 10% over melt to this day? How exciting can I get for the 100,000 mintage coins when the 12,000 mintage coins are near worthless? Wondercoin
P.S. Sorry for the "rant"
I think you make the case that there is no interest in that platinum issue regardless of the mintage numbers....
This set includes the lowest mintage non-proof Silver Eagle ever.....and... the 2nd lowest mintage Proof (actually RP) issue ever....and, most importantly, the collector base most likely exceeds the number of sets created.
<< <i> How exciting can I get for the 100,000 mintage coins when the 12,000 mintage coins are near worthless >>
Apples/oranges
I think we are seeing a flood sets hitting the market as flippers and those with weaker hands sell.
My opinion is that once the supply starts to dry up, and the sets get more widely dispersed, and promoted, collector and investor demand will drive prices up. I don't need to sell so I am going to hold onto my sets (sealed) for now.
I've been wrong on these types of decisions before, so I would love to hear other opinions.
Two words...Pan Pac...
And one day, the true rarity of the plats will be realized and prices will respond accordingly.
packaging being thrown out.
any of the services out there recycling the stuff-doubt it.
its a shame.
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
I fully expected this temporary decline for 2 reasons:
1. The flood.
2. More importantly, we are entering the busiest travel week of the year.
What prices do a week or two from now will tell the tale.
"The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary."
~ Vince Lombardi
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I knew it would happen.
<< <i><<I think you make the case that there is no interest in that platinum issue regardless of the mintage numbers....>>
Two words...Pan Pac...
And one day, the true rarity of the plats will be realized and prices will respond accordingly. >>
I want a couple plats but am not sure which to get. I really like the gov branch ones, which of those would you recomend long term(over 10 years)?
Thanks
BC
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>The NGC 70s sets are now closing at $2400-2450 on fleebay. >>
I think you are being a little generous. I see a lot selling for $2,020 - 2,250 range. When more arrive, I can see these sets going for $1,850.
<< <i>this seller has sold 21 NGC 70 sets (in hand) and has another 31 listed. That's a lot of 70's! >>
I thought actual photos of the coins being sold had to be used. Those are all the same 5 coin group.
<< <i>The NGC 70s sets are now closing at $2400-2450 on fleebay. >>
This new listing just killed NGC 70 prices
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Box of 20
<< <i>Still holding 25 sets, possiblly 30 sets. Box of Five going for $4300. I haven't seen these sealed sets fall in price yet only rising. I don't think we have reached the peak yet. >>
I would expect a drop in slabbed prices to have a negative affect on what speculators will pay for sealed multiple sets. A sudden downturn in slabbed prices (which is not unusual as they all hit the market) would cause me to reconsider holding sealed sets much longer.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Yes, further rise is still possible if not likely but...
With profit approaching a triple so soon, you know what they say about pigs.... Best of luck to ya.
<< <i>Is anyone ever going to catch wind of the 2011 1 oz proof platinum coins with about 11,500 in total sales (15,000 max mintage) with no MS platinum for the year, with no 1/10, 1/4 or 1/2 oz coins for the year in either MS or proof ... meaning there are only 11,500 sold thus far of any US platinum coin for 2011 that show the year 2011 on them. Yet, they trade about 10% over melt to this day? How exciting can I get for the 100,000 mintage coins when the 12,000 mintage coins are near worthless? Wondercoin
P.S. Sorry for the "rant"
..............................................................................................................................................................................
(Disclaimer #1........Before I start let me say I do NOT collect Silver eagles..........if anything based on holdings you'd say I'm a platinum collector. With that disclaimer let me try to answer Wondercoins question)
(Disclaimer #2.....following discussion is for raw coins avoiding inherent confusion of FS vs. Non FS, PR69 vs PR70, PCGS vs. NGC vs ANAC)
...............................
Those 11,000 2011 platinum coins have a cost of acqusition of appox. $22 million
Entry level is over $2,000 per coin annually.
Based on these numbers we can say at most there are currently only 10K-12K active platinum collectors who have the interest and funds to invest in 1 ounce platinum collectable coins on a recurring yearly basis.
The number of collectors with interest and funds to collect multiple years and in particular collect and hold numerous prior years AND various denominations is almost certainly less than 10K.
This explains why there has not been more of an explosive rise in price for the rarest of platinum issues with mintages below 3,000.
Even for these coins the mis-match between total active APE collectors and coins available is only 3x-4x at most.
This relatively low mis-match ratio explains why for even the rarest APEs the price is at most little more than 3-4X the base price of the coin
NOW CONSIDER SILVER EAGLES...................
Not even considering the bullion silver eagles lets just look at the annual proof eagle production numbers as a rough measure of interest.
Very little reason to hoard proof silver eagles............numbers sold likely is as good a measure of depth of ASE collecting market at least as much so as the annual Platinum proof sales is of the platinum collector market.
So....what do the proof silver eagle annual sales show??
800,000 potential silver eagle collectors based on 800,000+ annual silver eagle proof sales.
Now consider 800,000 collectors vs the 30,000 1995-W coins.
That 25 to 1 mismatch helps explain why the 1995-W proof sells for $3,000...........50X the base price of a proof ASE.
For the 2011 Reverse Proof it is a 8 to 1 mismatch between available coins and collector base.
This bodes well for the 2011 reverse proof but it also explains why long term it will likely struggle beyond $1000-$1,500 per raw example.
Conclusion.........When considering entry cost, annual cost to continue a series, cost to try to complete a series and the size of collector base to various mintages, the ASE collector market has far better fundamentals than the APE collector market.
This same exercise can be applied to the First Spouse collector market where based on annual sales the true collector base (Those willing to buy every new offering) is almost certainly below 4,000-3,500.
Here the mis-match between collector base and lowest mintage is likely no more than 2 to 1.
Unless there is a very rare FS in the future or a significant expansion in FS collector base than the relative price performance of current rarer examples vs. base coins may be rather muted.
Always remember Price is not a product of mintage alone.
Rather price is a product of mintage AND demand.
I would say the demand is at least double for the 4-coin "Liberty" subset, which is already starting to show a significant premium compared to other First Spouses with similar mintages.
<< Now consider 800,000 collectors vs the 30,000 1995-W coins. That 25 to 1 mismatch helps explain why the 1995-W proof sells for $3,000...........50X the base price of a proof ASE. For the 2011 Reverse Proof it is a 8 to 1 mismatch between available coins and collector base. This bodes well for the 2011 reverse proof but it also explains why long term it will likely struggle beyond $1000-$1,500 per raw example. >>
With the price of a raw 2006-P Reverse Proof (mintage 250K) at around $215, and the price of the 1995-W Proof (mintage 30K) at around $2800, I would estimate fair value for a raw 2011-P Reverse Proof (mintage 100K) at about $650, meaning that it's currently underpriced by about $250, and so is the five-coin 25th Anniversary Set.
Edited to add: I'm noticing that the number of 25th Anniversary sets available on eBay is steadily declining. I'm expecting that the price of these sets will begin rising again when the initial flips are over and done with.
Of course, I could be wrong . . .
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Picture the 5 coins in the long blue box...it looks just amazing. If you have the disposable income, why wouldn't you buy? These are going higher.
The 5-ounce America the Beautiful cartoon quarters...they are ugly, ugly, ugly. Who could love such a thing? There is no inherent beauty and so we have a pop and a drop…the price comes down.
Mark my words, the 25th Anniversary set...the price will rise.
--Edward
He who knows he has enough is rich.
<< <i>Anybody check out current bids for the RP and The"S" Coin being sold as singles on e-bay???...........OH yeah this set has long legs yet!!
Reverse Proof around $390, 2011-S burnished around $320, three remaining coins with box $190, total $900. Currently the sets are worth more split up than intact. This will change.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Reverse Proof around $390, 2011-S burnished around $320, three remaining coins with box $190, total $900. Currently the sets are worth more split up than intact. This will change. >>
Not anymore..They'll be getting more expensive, and you'll see fewer transactions on ebay. I just now sold my sealed box of 2 for $1,800, $900 per set, unopened/sealed (there's REALGATOR'S 'triple' he spoke of). The buyer suggested we go off ebay and I bill him straight through PP so I could get almost all the money and feebay none. Saved at least $162 in FVF that way. The buyer REALLY wanted them BAD....and to think HE suggested we go off ebay! I'll be happy with that sale...now, I just hope my backordered set from 5:20pm comes through, 'cause these are not done rising, yet, I believe. To think I considered grading them..... shipping, return, insurance, grading fees, FS fee....and if I got 69's (or a 70 with a scratch)......I'll be happy with the sale I just made....raw sets will do much much better than 69 sets.
Those that say the bubble burst, 2 sets for $900 each....doesn't seem the fire's out by a longshot....unless mine was an anomaly. And the great thing is, the $$ is already gone from PP to my bank acct. If prices do decline, I'm ready to pick up a RP and the 'S'mint, and still have a nice profit....then again, should my backordered order come through, I'll sell one opened set, keep one, and be a very happy camper. I am now!
edited....my original opening price was ALOT lower than $1,800....buyer just stepped up, and swung at the pitch.
<< <i>this seller has sold 21 NGC 70 sets (in hand) and has another 31 listed. That's a lot of 70's! >>
Looks like he got one fool ... er, numismatist ... to bite at $2,895.
<< <i>
<< <i>Reverse Proof around $390, 2011-S burnished around $320, three remaining coins with box $190, total $900. Currently the sets are worth more split up than intact. This will change. >>
Not anymore..They'll be getting more expensive, and you'll see fewer transactions on ebay. I just now sold my sealed box of 2 for $1,800, $900 per set, unopened/sealed (there's REALGATOR'S 'triple' he spoke of). The buyer suggested we go off ebay and I bill him straight through PP so I could get almost all the money and feebay none. Saved at least $162 in FVF that way. The buyer REALLY wanted them BAD....and to think HE suggested we go off ebay! I'll be happy with that sale...now, I just hope my backordered set from 5:20pm comes through, 'cause these are not done rising, yet, I believe. To think I considered grading them..... shipping, return, insurance, grading fees, FS fee....and if I got 69's (or a 70 with a scratch)......I'll be happy with the sale I just made....raw sets will do much much better than 69 sets.
Those that say the bubble burst, 2 sets for $900 each....doesn't seem the fire's out by a longshot....unless mine was an anomaly. And the great thing is, the $$ is already gone from PP to my bank acct. If prices do decline, I'm ready to pick up a RP and the 'S'mint, and still have a nice profit....then again, should my backordered order come through, I'll sell one opened set, keep one, and be a very happy camper. I am now!
edited....my original opening price was ALOT lower than $1,800....buyer just stepped up, and swung at the pitch. >>
Good for you!
I need a buyer like that
I have a set of 4 unopened (for a friend) and a set of 3 unopened (for a relative) to sell.....just haven't done the ebay thing yet.
Glad you got the $900 and off-ebay for the fee savings!
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i>In order to correctly interpret the price action of 25 ASE sets, we should not ignore the price action of SLV. Given SLV's 6-7% drop last week and the huge initial supply from people maxed out their cc, the price action of 25 ASE has so far been much stronger than what I expected. >>
SLV has nothing to do with a silver coin that was obviously underpriced by the mint at twice the spot price. Anyone trading in these for silver content needs to focus on baseball cards.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
ebay ducks are not yet aware how common this grade is.
<< <i>
<< <i>In order to correctly interpret the price action of 25 ASE sets, we should not ignore the price action of SLV. Given SLV's 6-7% drop last week and the huge initial supply from people maxed out their cc, the price action of 25 ASE has so far been much stronger than what I expected. >>
SLV has nothing to do with a silver coin that was obviously underpriced by the mint at twice the spot price. Anyone trading in these for silver content needs to focus on baseball cards. >>
Of course SLV and 25 ASE belong to two different asset classes (precious metal vs numismatic coins). Nevertheless, no one can ignore the fact that there is signficantly positive CORRELATION between the PRICE ACTION of the two asset classes. Rememeber how the silver coin market reacted when Hunts Brotheir cornored the SLV market back in 70s?
My point here is that, to better interpret the price action of 25 ASE, we should use SLV as monetary unit instead if using some fiat money.
Anyone ignoring the positive correlation between the two asset classes should retake FIN 101.
<< <i>SLV has nothing to do with a silver coin that was obviously underpriced by the mint at twice the spot price. Anyone trading in these for silver content needs to focus on baseball cards. >>
I agree with DerryB. SLV has absolutely nothing to do with the SAE 25th set prices. You might as well equate SLV with Bust Dollars or Gobrecht Dollars while you're at it. It makes just as much sense...
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
<< <i>
<< <i>The NGC 70s sets are now closing at $2400-2450 on fleebay. >>
This new listing just killed NGC 70 prices >>
Listing toasted for some reason....
This seller didn't do so well...
PCGS 69 set
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>In order to correctly interpret the price action of 25 ASE sets, we should not ignore the price action of SLV. Given SLV's 6-7% drop last week and the huge initial supply from people maxed out their cc, the price action of 25 ASE has so far been much stronger than what I expected. >>
SLV has nothing to do with a silver coin that was obviously underpriced by the mint at twice the spot price. Anyone trading in these for silver content needs to focus on baseball cards. >>
Of course SLV and 25 ASE belong to two different asset classes (precious metal vs numismatic coins). Nevertheless, no one can ignore the fact that there is signficantly positive CORRELATION between the PRICE ACTION of the two asset classes. Rememeber how the silver coin market reacted when Hunts Brotheir cornored the SLV market back in 70s?
My point here is that, to better interpret the price action of 25 ASE, we should use SLV as monetary unit instead if using some fiat money.
Anyone ignoring the positive correlation between the two asset classes should retake FIN 101.
If you're referring to the silver IShares ETF use "SLV." If you're referring to the silver spot price call it "silver."
If you want to interpret the price action of 25th ASE Sets, best to do it with dollars, because in most cases that's what you have to trade for them. The only correlation between SLV (and silver spot) and 25th ASE sets is that speculators are driving prices. Anything else is coincidence. SLV/silver affects ASE Set prices about as much as it does early commemorative silver halves - it doesn't. The only affect the silver market has on the price of silver collector coins is to set a bottom price which is determined by the weight of the silver in the coin. The price of silver does affect bullion ASE prices as well as "junk" silver coin prices but only when being bought or sold for their silver content. I seriously doubt most people making a decision on buying or what to pay for the ASE Set are thinking about the price of silver or how much silver is in each of the coins. Collector coins containing silver are an entirely different market than the silver market.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Box of 20
18 of them graded 70
At our hosts.
If these coins are this nice and 70's are this plentiful, well!!!!!!
Website-Americana Rare Coin Inc