First Strike question...
RB1026
Posts: 1,518 ✭✭✭✭
This is a question for those who play the "First Strike" Game. How does the existence of sealed raw sets such as the 20th Ann gold/silver eagles, the 2009 UHR, the 2008-W Buffalos, and now the 2011 25th Anniversary ASE sets impact the longer term secondary market for graded pieces? Meaning, if I understand it correctly, a sealed box from the U.S. Mint, that can be verified to have been shipped prior to the FS cutoff is forever eligible for the FS designation, (or in the case of the 25th ASE sets, also the 25th Anniversary designation). This is correct is it not?
That being said, does this not have an effect on the price of FS 69 & 70s long term on the secondary market when pops for those are somewhat low but there is the propsect of more to potentially be created? I got to thinking about this and have no experience with it. It would seem to me, though, that there would always be an element of uncertainty for the FS collectors as there would be the prospect of the pops on them going up over time since no one can verify how many sealed boxes of 08-W Buffalos for example, are still out there.
What say you?
That being said, does this not have an effect on the price of FS 69 & 70s long term on the secondary market when pops for those are somewhat low but there is the propsect of more to potentially be created? I got to thinking about this and have no experience with it. It would seem to me, though, that there would always be an element of uncertainty for the FS collectors as there would be the prospect of the pops on them going up over time since no one can verify how many sealed boxes of 08-W Buffalos for example, are still out there.
What say you?
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Comments
You are also looking for absolutes and you aren't going to find any. There is no scientific force behind the actual price or what people want. You take your chance doing it now, you take your chance holding on to them. No one is counting how many have been left in their "unopened, eligible" box. There is no way.
You will always have that element of uncertainty. What if the unopened ones spot? They won't be high grade then. What is grading standards change? What if what if what if?
And, yes, according to PCGS policy right now, if your box is unmolested, unopened, date stamped by the shipping as pre-cutoff for 1st strike, then it will be eligible down the road for the designation as well. Most people buying these, on the market, are not thinking about thousands of them that may come out of the closet later. They are basing on what they see now.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
I'm pretty sure that's how there came to be some First Strike Silver Eagles from the years before First Strike ever existed. As others have noted, the policy could change, but I'm not sure why it would.
That being said, does this not have an effect on the price of FS 69 & 70s long term on the secondary market when pops for those are somewhat low but there is the propsect of more to potentially be created?
I'd say that the market demand makes more of a difference than does the potential overhang of ungraded sealed boxes.
In the case of these 25th Anniversary 5-Coin ASE Sets, the precedent would be the 2006 20th Anniversary 3-Coin Sets. That set was not an immediate sellout, and there were 250,000 of them produced. Looking at the PCGS populations on the coins from that set, it appears that about 25% or so of all submissions on the "W" Burnished and RP issues were First Strike submissions, and that the totals were over 4,000 for First Strikes of those coins.
Nevertheless, after that set sold out - the price in OGP soon tripled, and 70-graded coins took off from there.
Comparatively, my guess is that when it's all said and done, there will be fewer First Strikes of the 2011 Anniversary Set certified, mainly because there were only 100,000 sets issued and also because costs have risen across the board since 2006. (I think that a higher percentage of sets will be submitted, but that the total number of coins certified will be lower.)
All of this makes for a "can't lose" strategy, as long as you made the Mint's ordering cutoff. You will be in good shape if you have your sets certified. You will be in good shape if you keep your sealed box for posterity, and you will be in good shape if you simply open the box and save your coins in OGP. Typically, OGP coins tend to outperform MS-69 & PR-69 graded coins when the dust settles.
The fact is that Silver Eagles are a popular series and that the 25th Anniversary is a hot, limited issue. Market demand will always be your friend on this set. Congrats.
***Edited to remove misinformation regarding the 2006-W Proof First Strike.***
I knew it would happen.
Velocity, Not Valuation Defines A Bubble.
<< <i>(The Regular Proof in the Anniversary Set was not certified as First Strike.) >>
Thats just a bit of misinformation as ALL coins in the 20th Anniversary Sets were and are (from sealed US Mint shipping boxes) First Strike eligible.
For the OP who mentioned the "First Strike game", there's also a "modern coin population game" and those pops can change at anytime. For sealed First Strike 25th and 20th Anniversary Sets, the numbers do go down over time for the high pops as a lot of these Silver Eagles do milk spot. The only way to address milk spotting is with a quick dip prior to submission but for the sealed sets, this is impossible and the coins spot just as well in the sealed shipping bax as the do out of it.
The name is LEE!
Whoops, nevermind. It's plain as day. Still, the rest of my post stands. Sorry about the misinformation. My bad. Thanks, Lee.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>The only way to address milk spotting is with a quick dip prior to submission but for the sealed sets, this is impossible and the coins spot just as well in the sealed shipping bax as the do out of it. >>
This is true. If you sent the coins in for grading in a sealed box and you are planning on flipping the coins, it is better to
do it as soon as you can so there will be less of a chance of milk spots appearing while in your possession and thus,
less chance of the buyer wanting to return them.
I bought 3 sets of the 20th anniversary sets. I received 2 sets in 70 and one in 69. I flipped one of the 70's immediately to pay
for my initial investment. Years later, all of the other coins developed milk spots and one of my remaining sets is in for spot review at this time.
I'm pretty sure the individual that bought the set in 70 had his coins spot as well, but it was years later as was the case
with the sets I didn't sell.
If you have a coin that is First Strike and you send it in for a regrade,
does PCGS automatically relabel the coin as First Strike, or do you have
to tell them to?
I will freely admit I think the concept is "dumb" from a tangible collecting standpoint. However, I do not question the marketing brilliance of PCGS to exploit it. The hobby wants it, people will pay for it, and so it is a reality in numismatics. So, I decided it was time for me to understand it. LOL Thanks gang!!!
<< <i>Lee, I checked the population report when I was writing my response. I obviously misread it, or is it just not there? Gettin' confused over here....
Whoops, nevermind. It's plain as day. Still, the rest of my post stands. Sorry about the misinformation. My bad. Thanks, Lee. >>
Thi is why its good to belong to the PCGS Registry. The SAE Pop report I'm looking at right now doesn't have any Proofs listed BUT, the Registry for Silver Egles (and any other coin) has all the pops listed for each coin in the set.
It's also FREE.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>Not sure on this.
If you have a coin that is First Strike and you send it in for a regrade,
does PCGS automatically relabel the coin as First Strike, or do you have
to tell them to? >>
The coin will retain the label since First Strike coins have their own PCGS Coin Numbers.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>
<< <i>Not sure on this.
If you have a coin that is First Strike and you send it in for a regrade,
does PCGS automatically relabel the coin as First Strike, or do you have
to tell them to? >>
The coin will retain the label since First Strike coins have their own PCGS Coin Numbers. >>
Thanks. I should have known that! I'm such a
<< <i>The FS is really just a selling gimmick, particularly for those who do not understand the minting process and are looking for 'status'. >>
i am in the minority and will be submitting mine w/o a FS request.
maybe the standard 25th anniv. label will be the uncommon label and will still sell for the same as a FS?
If you have a coin that is First Strike eligible and you send it in for an upgrade,
would PCGS relabel the coin as First Strike, when submitted with the FS fee ($18).
hypothetical: if i sold a set and the new owner wanted the FS labels, could it happen?
the 2 keys are always eligible, so would the other 3, already PCGS labled non-FS, be relabeled as FS?
<< <i>another FS question (specific to the 25th ASE set):
If you have a coin that is First Strike eligible and you send it in for an upgrade,
would PCGS relabel the coin as First Strike, when submitted with the FS fee ($18).
hypothetical: if i sold a set and the new owner wanted the FS labels, could it happen?
the 2 keys are always eligible, so would the other 3, already PCGS labled non-FS, be relabeled as FS? >>
Unless your buyer received the coin and submitted it "before" the Dec 7th Cut Off date, there would be no way to validate that the coin qualified for a First Strike label.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>
maybe the standard 25th anniv. label will be the uncommon label and will still sell for the same as a FS?
you aren't the only one... perhaps we're really a silent majority???
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 700
<< <i>
<< <i>The FS is really just a selling gimmick, particularly for those who do not understand the minting process and are looking for 'status'. >>
i am in the minority and will be submitting mine w/o a FS request.
maybe the standard 25th anniv. label will be the uncommon label and will still sell for the same as a FS?
Less clutter on the label? ......sounds like a great idea!
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i>Unless your buyer received the coin and submitted it "before" the Dec 7th Cut Off date, there would be no way to validate that the coin qualified for a First Strike label. >>
the RP and S are eligible for FS at any time (per PCGS)
so, if an already graded(clarified from my previous question) set was RE-submitted because someone wanted a FS label on them,which i did not care about, 8 mos past the cutoff, there is no way to verify that the graded set, was originally slabbed prior to the cutoff date?
i should stop over-thinking about this stuff...
in reality, i may not even make the submission cutoff to even worry about having the FS label on mine.