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By 2046 will "Moderns" be a hot or not?
SanctionII
Posts: 12,997 ✭✭✭✭✭
I pick 2046 since that will mean that the first baby boomers will be 100 and most of us boomers will probably be dead or mostly out of the hobby.
As for "Moderns", use whatever definition of same you want (I would consider post 1933 US coinage to be Modern; or alternatively post 1964 US coinage to be Modern).
Your predictions please.
After posting your prediction, check this thread in 34 years to see how you did
As for "Moderns", use whatever definition of same you want (I would consider post 1933 US coinage to be Modern; or alternatively post 1964 US coinage to be Modern).
Your predictions please.
After posting your prediction, check this thread in 34 years to see how you did
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World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
Not really looking for much these days but if I were, it might be a toner.
In other words, I predict maybe some hotness for high grade examples but not hot overall.
collectors will no doubt have it very easy in the future, God only knows how the internet will evolve by then....
If you want to consider "Moderns" to be coins minted in and after 2011, or in 2046, go ahead.
I suspect that some hard to find Cameo and DCAM proof and SMS coins (i.e. a gem 1950 Cameo or DCAM Franklin; a gem Cameo of DCAM 1965 cent, etc.) will be in demand, hard to find and pricey. On the other hand, a gem Cameo 1964 nickel or quarter will not be in high demand, will be easy to find and will be inexpensive. I also suspect that gem, toned early clad quarters (those minted from 1965 until the spaghetti hair, flat devices look appeared) will also be in demand. Other circulations strikes that are well known varieties will be in demand.
I'd consider anything past 1964 modern by composition and 1947 by design (last year for a liberty design on a circulating coin).
Modern clad coinage might become valuable if copper rises substantially.
"Bongo hurtles along the rain soaked highway of life on underinflated bald retread tires."
~Wayne
<< <i>I will be 80 and won't give a damn! >>
You'll be one of the young'uns in the hobby by then
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i>
<< <i>I will be 80 and won't give a damn! >>
You'll be one of the young'uns in the hobby by then
Gosh, I hope not.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I will be 80 and won't give a damn! >>
You'll be one of the young'uns in the hobby by then
Gosh, I hope not.
Q. David RYK
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
I was born in 1939 so you figure it out.
If coins are still around and still have a following among collectors, I expect several of these will be "hot."
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.american-legacy-coins.com
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 700
the moon and then crash forever just that the prices of the rare moderns will have gone
up during the eras in which collectors favored them and then settled into a long term
pricing pattern like classics. Some series will have even had multiple times in the spot-
light and the common issues will still be common. While there might be some wholesale
demand for things like non-cull average circ 1965 dimes such coins simply won't ever
get a lot of price premium because enough will be saved out when they are recalled
for melting. Such a roll might bring $10 but that won't nearly be enough to make of for
the losses caused by inflation. Even typical uncs will be common enough to not create
much excitement despite being far less common than they are today.
The move in moderns really started in 1995 and has broadened and deepened over the
last 15+ years. Currently it's mostly world moderns that are soaring because the explo-
sion in the size of the middle classes in other countries more than makes up for the world
economic problems. As the middle class grows demand for coins grows and most moderns
are scarce and this goes double for most other countries. Now the US moderns are being
held back by the economic woes which has large numbers of raw coins enterring the mar-
ketplace but this is temporary. The increasing demand for US moderns will mop up this
new supply. Indeed, the prices of the earlier mint sets is little affected simply because
the attrition on these has been so high that such large numbers can't come up for sale.
The 1995 mint set has lost most of its value despite have a mintage under a million yet
the 1971 mint set has held relatively stable suggesting very few survive. Of course you
must factor in that the '95 set was grossly over valued.
The next wave for US moderns will be much more dramatic than anything to date and will
start as soon as the economy begins to improve. In the past the prices affected have been
mostly just the very high grade but this time it will be all the scarcities from varieties, types,
and high grade. The demand will be much deeper and will affect not only the highest grades
but also almost all of them down to MS-64. The base is being built right now. There are mil-
lions of collectors dabbling in moderns and many more who will be returning to the hobby as
young adults who collected states quarters as children.
By 2046 virtually all of today's "established collectors" will have left the hobby and two new
generations of hobbyists will have arisen. Collecting will be changed by the computer. The
ease with which collectors can branch out will result in more diversity in collecting especially
among those who grew up with the internet.
There's a good chance that the hobby will be starting to shrink by that time since coins might
well be a thing of the past.
I have to imagine that ancients will have become popular again.