Key Date Coins Not selling

Planchet · August 26, 2011 1:46PM

Hi All

I have been talking to two dealers who tell me that they have had problems moving circ. TPG key date coins, even at the grey sheet bid price. They said that coins that used to be fast movers such as the 1916-D in a low grade (AG-3) and the 09-S VDB and 1955-DD in less than AU are just not moving. Once told me he just let a PCGS AG-3 Merc dime go for slightly ver $500 as it was the only nibble he has received recently. On told me he had an XF very competitivly proced at the Summer ANA show and had no lookers. Has the economy hit the lower grade key date coins? Planchet

Moldnut · August 26, 2011 1:51PM

1916-D 10c and 09-s VDB are always around in lower grades, so that does not surprise me that much. The ones with the money would most likely go for the high grade coins.

TwoSides2aCoin · August 26, 2011 2:02PM

put them on eBay and let them go.
it's a risky proposition, though

RB1026 · August 26, 2011 2:13PM

Might have something to do with everyone's preoccupation with gold these days too. It's hard to market a 14-d Lincoln in F-15 when everything made from gold seems to go up each week.

BaseballAbs · August 26, 2011 2:40PM

<< 1916-D 10c and 09-s VDB are always around in lower grades, so that does not surprise me that much. The ones with the money would most likely go for the high grade coins. >>

I totally agree with this statement. I can find both these coins in lower grade on a dozen websites right this minute. These are slow to move with the current economy because in my opinion those of us with the budget for that grade level of key dates don't have the extra funds at the moment. I use to like to just own keys for fun, but I now reserve what spending money I do have for things higher on my priority list, like early quarters.

cladking · August 26, 2011 2:46PM

The last time the coin market was weak in 1995 it didn't seem like there
was anything that would ever lead to a recovery. The economy was fairly
strong but collecting was dying.

Wait a couple years and the economy will turn around and the growing col-
lector base will no doubt absorb all the overhang and then some.

RedTiger · August 26, 2011 2:50PM

It may depend on the perceived quality of the coin. An AG3 coin that is close to G4 will command a lot more than one that is closer to FA2. Sounds silly, but even at that low a grade, quality within the grade counts for something. Second idea is that prices do go down sometimes and the sheet will eventually move down to reflect the lower pricing. A third thought is that albums with fakes or fake keys are flooding the market and satisfying some of the collector demand. The collectors may not yet know they have fakes, or perhaps just fake keys in their album, but have "completed" their raw set and are longer shopping for a real coin. These are just some guesses as to possible reasons why.

oreville · August 26, 2011 3:11PM

I was a ready and willing buyer of the 1916-D dime in Chicago.

The 1916-D dimes in AG-03 at the Chicago ANA show were of slightly below average quality at best.

I tried to look at each and every one and was able to scan most of them without the dealer taking them out of the showcase.

I was looking for a PQ 1916-D dime in F-02 or AG-03 or VG or higher that would gold sticker.

I was successful in plucking a 1916-D dime at the Boston ANA in PCGS OGH G-04 for $900 that I got a gold sticker at CAC.

There was another one in AG-03 in Boston that almost was good enough for a gold sticker that was going for $650 but it did not quite make the grade.

But the quality in Chicago was definitely inferior to last year Boston.

That is why they were not moving.

WTCG · August 26, 2011 3:46PM

A lot of people have the belief that if a coin is a key date then it must be rare. That is not always true. Coins such as the 1916-D, 1909-S VDB And 1893-S Morgans tend to be readily available, for a price, especially in the lower circulated grades. Certainly there is often decent demand for those dates but they aren't always difficult to locate.

Tdec1000 · August 26, 2011 4:29PM

<< A lot of people have the belief that if a coin is a key date then it must be rare. That is not always true. Coins such as the 1916-D, 1909-S VDB And 1893-S Morgans tend to be readily available, for a price, especially in the lower circulated grades. Certainly there is often decent demand for those dates but they aren't always difficult to locate. >>

While I agree with you on the first two.... the 1893 S seems a bit tougher to find at most local shows.

WestySteve · August 27, 2011 4:04AM

<< Might have something to do with everyone's preoccupation with gold these days too. It's hard to market a 14-d Lincoln in F-15 when everything made from gold seems to go up each week. >>

This is what I've been saying. And it may not end soon, but it will end. That makes right now a buying opportunity for keys and real "collector" coins. Eventually the worm will turn and the dealers will only be able to survive by catering to the collectors again instead of the melters.

Besides...doesn't it make sense to buy things that are underpriced that should (revert) to normal pricing vs. things that are overpriced and an accident waiting to happen? Its dangerous to be playing a "greater fool/bag holder game" when its late in the 4th quarter and there are potentially very little gains left to get.

Steve

shorecoll · August 27, 2011 4:39AM

I think many dealers overlook the quality within grade thing. There are many AG 16-Ds around, in fact I once owned a half roll of them. If I was buying I'd look at a dozen and pick the best (not the cheapest) one. I still remember seeing rolls of 93-S Morgans, up to fine or very fine, I certainly wouldn't jump on the first one I saw. Maybe several people are right...gold fever is slowing the collector market and the collectors that are left are just picky. This will cycle though, so I wouldn't dump anything unless I really needed the cash.

ThePennyLady · August 27, 2011 4:50AM

I disagree - in the past week alone, I've sold 3 circulated 1877 Indian cents (VG-XF) and a 1909-S vdb (MS64). Quality key dates make good investment coins over time, and I think people are realizing that.

BillJones · August 27, 2011 5:10AM

<< The last time the coin market was weak in 1995 it didn't seem like there
was anything that would ever lead to a recovery. The economy was fairly
strong but collecting was dying.

Wait a couple years and the economy will turn around and the growing col-
lector base will no doubt absorb all the overhang and then some. >>

I started as a coin dealer in 1995, and be honest it was wonderful. I could buy stuff from other dealers and sell it to collectors and make money because I offered better customer service than they did. When the market really picked up I had more problems because the dealers did need me to sell their coins; they could sell them themselves.

291fifth · August 27, 2011 5:21AM

Hoarding of key date coins has been going on for quite a few years. Are the hoarders of low grade key date coins being affected by the economy?

The comments about low end of grade slabbed key date coins are interesting.

Overdate · August 27, 2011 6:01AM

Which coin do you think is likely to double in value sooner?

1) 1916-D dime in XF.
2) 1964-D dime in XF.

Based on recent performance, I would go with the 1964-D.

There is less discretionary income available for buying keys, and low-mintage moderns are soaking up more of the demand. Type collecting is overtaking set collecting in popularity. Bullion-value coins are perceived as having higher liquidity and lower risk than keys, resulting in less "investment" demand for keys.

During the past few years, silver key coin prices have been stagnant while bullion-value coins have more than tripled. Past performance and the current economic situation suggest that this will continue for some time.

cladking · August 27, 2011 6:47AM

<< 
I started as a coin dealer in 1995, and be honest it was wonderful. I could buy stuff from other dealers and sell it to collectors and make money because I offered better customer service than they did. When the market really picked up I had more problems because the dealers did need me to sell their coins; they could sell them themselves. >>

It was a great time to buy. Everything will sell at some price and key dates were moving
in '95 even if somewhat lethargically. The hardest things to sell in those days were semi-
keys in less than high grade like a '24-D Lincoln in VF+. This is a great coin but there just
weren't enough collectors to make a good sale for most dealers.

I disagree with those who suggest that the problem now is because attention is focused
elsewhere. If there were demand for these key dates they would be selling at even high-
er prices as dealers are flush with metals profits and collectors feel the wealth effect of
higher prices for their collections or metal holdings. I believe iit's the weak economy driv-
ing middle class collectors to liquidate collections suppressing the value of numerous coins
held by large numbers of middle class people. Scarcer coins and higher grade coins don't
experience this because fewer are being liquidated and because it's the rare and high grade
coins that collectors and dealers are buying with their profits.

The economy might look a little different when it recovers but it will recover and key dates
will be among the first coins to recover in all probability. One fly in the ointment though is
that a new selling wave is about to begin caused by retiring baby boomers. The oldest are
66 years old now and the numbers retiring will be increasing sharply year after year for the
next decade.

RedTiger · August 27, 2011 7:02AM

<< 

...doesn't it make sense to buy things that are underpriced that should to normal pricing vs. things that are overpriced and an accident waiting to happen? Its dangerous to be playing a "greater fool/bag holder game" when its late in the 4th quarter and there are potentially very little gains left to get.

Steve >>

Key date coins have been in a 21-year long bull market, which is longer than the 12-year bull run for gold. So who is the greater fool? The person buying coins that have seen 21 years of an incredible up market? Or those buying gold? Or both?

Overdate · August 27, 2011 9:47AM

<< So who is the greater fool? The person buying coins that have seen 21 years of an incredible up market? Or those buying gold? Or both? >>

Depends on when they sell.

WestySteve · August 27, 2011 9:51AM

Thats a good point, as is the point above regarding the baby boomers retiring. I have to wonder if what was driving the bull market in key dates was the baby boomers taking a "its now or never" attitude to finish their collections off....probably between getting their last kids through college and retirement. Heck, who knows...maybe they are done collecting and coins will stagnate from here. Don't know. I only know that I've always been concerned about the demographics. I'm a "tweener"...the generation that comes after the boomers but before Generation X...and so I'm conditioned to getting the crumbs that generation has left behind in their wake.

Steve

SUMORADA · August 27, 2011 10:36AM

Planchet

I clicked on this, but as soon as I did .....the blinking avatar.........this is only one persons opinion but, can you turn that thing off please. if not I understand too each his own, but wtf.

Have a great weekend.....blink,blink,blink,blink......;.

wink,wink, .....

edited to ad....blink blink wink wink .......wtf.

CoinCoins · August 27, 2011 10:49AM

i've got an AG 16D that i've been trying to sell for weeks.. cant even get $350 for it. just natural wear, nothing wrong with it. i thought that'd be an easy sale at that price.

Planchet · August 27, 2011 11:38AM

SUMORADA

I would love to turn it off but I do not know how. Can you PM me and tell me how to make it stop-Planchet

<< Planchet

I clicked on this, but as soon as I did .....the blinking avatar.........this is only one persons opinion but, can you turn that thing off please. if not I understand too each his own, but wtf.

Have a great weekend.....blink,blink,blink,blink......;.

wink,wink, .....

edited to ad....blink blink wink wink .......wtf. >>

LeeBone · August 27, 2011 11:45AM

You`re right; I`m NOT selling my Key Dates!

Oh, BTW, blink, blink,blink,blink.

Right back at `ya!!

JCMhouston · August 27, 2011 12:58PM

<< I was looking for a PQ 1916-D dime in F-02 or AG-03 or VG or higher that would gold sticker. >>

I'm not sure that makes you a buyer of low grade 16 D's, that makes you a buyer of undergraded 16 D's at the slabbed price for the lower grade. Quite a big difference between the two.

swhuck · August 29, 2011 4:01AM

<< Which coin do you think is likely to double in value sooner?

1) 1916-D dime in XF.
2) 1964-D dime in XF.

Based on recent performance, I would go with the 1964-D.

There is less discretionary income available for buying keys, and low-mintage moderns are soaking up more of the demand. Type collecting is overtaking set collecting in popularity. Bullion-value coins are perceived as having higher liquidity and lower risk than keys, resulting in less "investment" demand for keys.

During the past few years, silver key coin prices have been stagnant while bullion-value coins have more than tripled. Past performance and the current economic situation suggest that this will continue for some time. >>

Conversely, the 1964-D dime in XF is far more likely to lose half its value than the 1916-D.

Staircoins · August 29, 2011 4:36AM

<< Planchet

I clicked on this, but as soon as I did .....the blinking avatar.........this is only one persons opinion but, can you turn that thing off please. if not I understand too each his own, but wtf.

Have a great weekend.....blink,blink,blink,blink......;.

wink,wink, .....

edited to ad....blink blink wink wink .......wtf. >>

Sumorada - To stop blinking icons (which are really just animated GIFs) in some browsers: After the page has loaded, click the 'STOP' icon at the top of the page. Depending on which browser/version you are using, this may look like a red 'X', or a Stop sign, or something similar.

Batman23 · August 29, 2011 4:52AM

<< 

<< Planchet

I clicked on this, but as soon as I did .....the blinking avatar.........this is only one persons opinion but, can you turn that thing off please. if not I understand too each his own, but wtf.

Have a great weekend.....blink,blink,blink,blink......;.

wink,wink, .....

edited to ad....blink blink wink wink .......wtf. >>

Sumorada - To stop blinking icons (which are really just animated GIFs) in some browsers: After the page has loaded, click the 'STOP' icon at the top of the page. Depending on which browser/version you are using, this may look like a red 'X', or a Stop sign, or something similar.

>>

That worked! Thanks for the tip, my eyes are now at peace

airplanenut · August 29, 2011 5:39AM

<< I was a ready and willing buyer of the 1916-D dime in Chicago.

The 1916-D dimes in AG-03 at the Chicago ANA show were of slightly below average quality at best.

I tried to look at each and every one and was able to scan most of them without the dealer taking them out of the showcase.

I was looking for a PQ 1916-D dime in F-02 or AG-03 or VG or higher that would gold sticker.

I was successful in plucking a 1916-D dime at the Boston ANA in PCGS OGH G-04 for $900 that I got a gold sticker at CAC.

There was another one in AG-03 in Boston that almost was good enough for a gold sticker that was going for $650 but it did not quite make the grade.

But the quality in Chicago was definitely inferior to last year Boston.

That is why they were not moving. >>

That means you were looking for a Good coin in an FR02 or AG3 holder. That doesn't mean the AG coins available aren't nice, it means they aren't undergraded. BIG difference.

Key Date Coins Not selling

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