<< <i>By the way. Just north of $70 million dollars. >>
21% per year over several decades is very impressive indeed and so is the Oracle of Omaha, both the man and his accomplishments. He's one of the few people that tells it like it is.
The question is whether buying rare coins today is analogous to Pittman doing it in the 1950s. Or someone buying MSFT or Berkshire stock at the beginning. Or rather - it is more analogous to buying MSFT stock today? Or buying stock in a buggy whip company right before autos took off?
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
<< <i>The question is whether buying rare coins today is analogous to Pittman doing it in the 1950s. Or someone buying MSFT or Berkshire stock at the beginning. Or rather - it is more analogous to buying MSFT stock today? Or buying stock in a buggy whip company right before autos took off? >>
If what Ms. Sperber states is true, I wonder what will happen to "slake" demand for PQ coins. Where will the supply needed to slake the demand come from?
Will collectors and the dealers [both inside and outside the USA] who supply them with coins turn to:
1. Non US Coins;
2. Pre 1948 (i.e. pre 1934 Lincolns and earlier cents; buffalo and earlier nickels; mercury and earlier dimes; SLQ and earlier quarters; walkers and earlier halves) US coins which grade MS64 or less;
3. US coins that are recognized varieties or errors;
4. US commemorative coins [classic and/or modern];
5. Modern and Ultra Modern US coins of high grade that are condition rarities [i.e. DCAM proofs from the 1950's whose populations have not changed much over the past decade]; and/or
6. High grade US Clad coinage
I suspect that "Pittman like" collectors of the who are less than 60 years old may be persons of a contrarian frame of mind. Cladking for one comes to mind. It may not happen for another 10-20 years [if at all], but I suspect that what Cladking has said in the past will come true with respect to certain coins of modern vintage that were ignored when they were made and put into use. They were not saved in any significant amount and they do not exist today except in very small numbers (i.e. Gem 1969 P quarters). It may be that these types of coins will become very valuable one day and that those few who took the time to find and acquire these coins will make Pittman like returns.
As the world gets smaller and the exchange of information becomes easier and more comprehensive across the globe, those person who have the collecting bug and the money to play in the hobby pool will have access to broader and deeper markets in which to swim and play in. Who knows, maybe one day it will be possible [and easy] for Asian, European or South American collectors with an interest in US coins to search the inventory of collectors in the USA to find that "Special Coin" that they just have to have [i.e. an MS65 Red 1934 Lincoln Cent or a 1950 PR65 CAM Franklin Half] and will pay moon money for it, all without any involvement by a third party "middleman".
I was involved in a legal case that resulted in an auction of about 80,000 vintage records from the 1940's through the early 1980's a few years ago [2007 or 2008]. The records sold for well over $250K to a dealer who resold them into the market place [for a price I am not aware of]. The people I dealt with that bid on the records told me of an earlier auction of about 225,000 records in 2003 from the same source as the 80,000 records. The 225,000 records sold to a consortium of buyers for about $250K. These records were then resold into the market place for about $8,000,000.00. The records were sold around the world, including to Eastern European markets consisting of night club owners seeking to obtain records with songs/recordings that had not been on the market for decades [aka "fresh material"]. These songs/recordings were so popular at the club that bought the single record that the specific club that bought the records became the "in place" where people would gather for fun and dancing. The prices paid for individual records approached $10,000.00.
The demand for the product cause the price of the limited supply to go through the roof.
Maybe the information contained in Ms. Sperber's most recent market report will be spot on. If so, hopefully there are some future Pittmans in the hobby right now.
SanctionII, I agree with much of your reasoning. I would also include high-grade historical medals---many are too cheap right now. There are also lots of good buys in 19th-century minors (e.g., with motto Seated coins, late-date large cents, etc.), particularly now that pricier material is drying up.
BUT...somebody put me to sleep before we get to your item 6.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
I posted a comment on the article linking back to this Collectors Universe thread so people would know the source of Doug Winter's inspiration to write the commentary from Legend's Market Report and my 4th Reply to this thread and then he just went off and got all long winded with it.
Edit: It seems my Comment on Coinweek is waiting for a moderator to approve it...I'm not sure my comment will get approved.
"If it's not fun, it's not worth it." - KeyMan64 Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
Comments
<< <i>A closed mind is like a bad potatoe. >>
By the way. Just north of $70 million dollars.
---- I gots to put a smiley in or JB will be hammerin my PM's like velveeta on wannabees.
<< <i>see what happens when you throw a little bait out for JB
---- I gots to put a smiley in or JB will be hammerin my PM's like velveeta on wannabees. >>
Awwwww, c'mon Streets. I'm just a regular g-g-guy.
<< <i>Hey I edited that! >>
Np, it's a keeper
<< <i>By the way. Just north of $70 million dollars. >>
21% per year over several decades is very impressive indeed and so is the Oracle of Omaha, both the man and his accomplishments. He's one of the few people that tells it like it is.
Or rather - it is more analogous to buying MSFT stock today? Or buying stock in a buggy whip company right before autos took off?
<< <i>I tell it like it is....and even though I edited "A closed mind is like a bad potatoe. " I thought it was damn clever. You did too! >>
If you think you're being "clever" by spelling potato like Dan Quayle, just look where that got him!
http://www.raregoldcoins.com/market-blog/why-the-rare-coin-market-isnt-the-art-market
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Next time you need to impress that lady just give her a nice CC morgan dollar, yea that will work.
<< <i>See Doug Winter's new commentary regarding the art market vs. the coin market:
http://www.raregoldcoins.com/market-blog/why-the-rare-coin-market-isnt-the-art-market >>
Linkified.
Good to see another perspective on this.
<< <i>even though I edited "A closed mind is like a bad potatoe. " I thought it was damn clever. You did too! >>
Probably for different reasons
<< <i>The question is whether buying rare coins today is analogous to Pittman doing it in the 1950s. Or someone buying MSFT or Berkshire stock at the beginning.
Or rather - it is more analogous to buying MSFT stock today? Or buying stock in a buggy whip company right before autos took off? >>
Very interesting questions....
Will collectors and the dealers [both inside and outside the USA] who supply them with coins turn to:
1. Non US Coins;
2. Pre 1948 (i.e. pre 1934 Lincolns and earlier cents; buffalo and earlier nickels; mercury and earlier dimes; SLQ and earlier quarters; walkers and earlier halves) US coins which grade MS64 or less;
3. US coins that are recognized varieties or errors;
4. US commemorative coins [classic and/or modern];
5. Modern and Ultra Modern US coins of high grade that are condition rarities [i.e. DCAM proofs from the 1950's whose populations have not changed much over the past decade]; and/or
6. High grade US Clad coinage
I suspect that "Pittman like" collectors of the who are less than 60 years old may be persons of a contrarian frame of mind. Cladking for one comes to mind. It may not happen for another 10-20 years [if at all], but I suspect that what Cladking has said in the past will come true with respect to certain coins of modern vintage that were ignored when they were made and put into use. They were not saved in any significant amount and they do not exist today except in very small numbers (i.e. Gem 1969 P quarters). It may be that these types of coins will become very valuable one day and that those few who took the time to find and acquire these coins will make Pittman like returns.
As the world gets smaller and the exchange of information becomes easier and more comprehensive across the globe, those person who have the collecting bug and the money to play in the hobby pool will have access to broader and deeper markets in which to swim and play in. Who knows, maybe one day it will be possible [and easy] for Asian, European or South American collectors with an interest in US coins to search the inventory of collectors in the USA to find that "Special Coin" that they just have to have [i.e. an MS65 Red 1934 Lincoln Cent or a 1950 PR65 CAM Franklin Half] and will pay moon money for it, all without any involvement by a third party "middleman".
I was involved in a legal case that resulted in an auction of about 80,000 vintage records from the 1940's through the early 1980's a few years ago [2007 or 2008]. The records sold for well over $250K to a dealer who resold them into the market place [for a price I am not aware of]. The people I dealt with that bid on the records told me of an earlier auction of about 225,000 records in 2003 from the same source as the 80,000 records. The 225,000 records sold to a consortium of buyers for about $250K. These records were then resold into the market place for about $8,000,000.00. The records were sold around the world, including to Eastern European markets consisting of night club owners seeking to obtain records with songs/recordings that had not been on the market for decades [aka "fresh material"]. These songs/recordings were so popular at the club that bought the single record that the specific club that bought the records became the "in place" where people would gather for fun and dancing. The prices paid for individual records approached $10,000.00.
The demand for the product cause the price of the limited supply to go through the roof.
Maybe the information contained in Ms. Sperber's most recent market report will be spot on. If so, hopefully there are some future Pittmans in the hobby right now.
BUT...somebody put me to sleep before we get to your item 6.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
<< <i>
<< <i>See Doug Winter's new commentary regarding the art market vs. the coin market:
http://www.raregoldcoins.com/market-blog/why-the-rare-coin-market-isnt-the-art-market >>
Linkified.
Good to see another perspective on this. >>
I posted a comment on the article linking back to this Collectors Universe thread so people would know the source of Doug Winter's inspiration to write the commentary from Legend's Market Report and my 4th Reply to this thread and then he just went off and got all long winded with it.
Edit: It seems my Comment on Coinweek is waiting for a moderator to approve it...I'm not sure my comment will get approved.
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.