PCGS Lowball Prices

TheShampineCollection · May 13, 2011 2:50AM

Just wondering if anyone knows why PCGS prices seem to be pretty accurate on virtually every coin I have, except the lowballs. Lowball coins, especially PO01 Morgan and Peace dollars are selling at a HUGE premium over the prices listed on the PCGS price guide. Sometimes more than 10 times the listed price! I can understand if PCGS doesn't get the pricing information if a coin is sold privately, but even when coins are listed online and sold publicly through a website or auction, PCGS numbers don't reflect the prices realized. I could understand if these coins sold for a mere 25-80% more than the listed price, but most PO01 coins I have found to sell for between 200% and 1000% of the PCGS listed price.

PCGS single-handedly created this market for us low ball coin collectors by offering set composites for it, yet now they seem to be interested in keeping the values down? Is this true, or am I paranoid? Are they worried that posting coins in PO01 condition that have AU-MS prices will reflect negatively on them or cause customers to go away? What is it? I'm confused as to why they wouldn't reflect prices accurately? Anyone care to explain?

Is not the job of the price guide to accurately reflect prices realized in the marketplace?

Greg

pmac · May 13, 2011 2:54AM

I think that as you said, they created the market, but to have their price list start to increase as the grade decreases seems counter intuitive. Obviously the marked drives the prices, as it does for all coins.

llafoe · May 13, 2011 2:56AM

PCGS is trying to protect those that can't protect themselves!

TheShampineCollection · May 13, 2011 3:13AM

A great example is the 1921-D Morgan in PO01. PCGS price guide puts this coin at $45.00 in PO01. This coin is not uncommon, there are 8 such examples in this grade, but this coin is a single year mintmark for the Morgan series, therefore crucial for a collector of the lowball mintmark set. Recently, I was offered one for $300, nearly 7 times the price guide value. I counteroffered at $200 and was turned down. It was sold to another collector the same week for what I can only presume was between $200 and $300. Knowing the market and the seller, I would assume it went for the full $300 or close to it making it worth more than the same 1921-D in MS64+.

I understand this was a private sale, therefore PCGS would have no basis for changing their guide prices based on this single scenario, but this was just one example. Surely with 8 examples floating around, the 1921-D in PO01 has changed hands publicly at some point. And this is not just this coin, it is EVERY PO01 coin out there. If someone offered me just about any PO01 Morgan or Peace dollar out there at only 3 times price guide value, I would surely jump on such an incredible offer!! Is there any other group of prices that are that far off the mark as a whole?

Coins911 · May 13, 2011 3:22AM

I sold a Pop 1 Morgan P01 for $800. I don't get it but i'm glad some one wanted to pay me that much

TheShampineCollection · May 13, 2011 3:26AM

<< I sold a Pop 1 Morgan P01 for $800. I don't get it but i'm glad some one wanted to pay me that much >>

I'd say that is pretty accurate for a Pop 1 PO01 Morgan. What does the price guide say that coin is worth, $40-$60? Have any more PO01 coins you'd like to sell?

keyman64 · May 13, 2011 3:33AM

I think it comes down to this. At an auction you might get lucky that some LOWBALL SET BUILDERS will compete for your coin...but other than that, if you take your coin into a dealer they will only give you melt for it. I think this applies to the majority of dealers. Just my guess. Here is a question, if the LOWBALL registry went away, just plain went POOF, would there be a market for the coins or would they all be melt?

savoyspecial · May 13, 2011 3:35AM

>>I counteroffered at $200 and was turned down>>

one day you will look back and thank that fellow

questor54 · May 13, 2011 3:35AM

<< I think it comes down to this. At an auction you might get lucky that some LOWBALL SET BUILDERS will compete for your coin...but other than that, if you take your coin into a dealer they will only give you melt for it. I think this applies to the majority of dealers. Just my guess. Here is a question, if the LOWBALL registry went away, just plain went POOF, would there be a market for the coins or would they all be melt? >>

People would start their private Registries rathen than to let all that value vanish.

The exact same statement can be made about the regular Registry. Especially for moderns.

RedTiger · May 13, 2011 3:37AM

Price guides are rarely accurate on low pop coins. One coin might sell for a price that is triple that of another coin. Eight coins is relatively low pop. The low grade registries have create a monster, but it will likely be satiated as methods to wear down coins to PO1 coins become more refined.

pocketpiececommems · May 13, 2011 3:40AM

I collected Lowball commems before I knew about this website or the registry. Collectors will collect what they want to collect and that is what makes collecting fun. CU has definately put me in touch with more collectors of this type of material.

TheShampineCollection · May 13, 2011 3:40AM

I think you make some great points keyman. I agree that the values will suffer horribly if PCGS ever went poof with the lowball registry. The only thing that would help hold the values up in that circumstance is the strength and conviction of the collectors to continue those sets regardless of the registry. I, like many others who collect lowball coins have been doing it before the registry set, and will do it long after. That will keep it going, but I agree the values would suffer. The price guide is not meant to be pro-active or subjective. It is supposed to be reactionary, a direct reflection of the current marketplace. That is why I think something needs to be fixed.

questor54 · May 13, 2011 3:42AM

<< Price guides are rarely accurate on low pop coins. One coin might sell for a price that is triple that of another coin. Eight coins is relatively low pop. The low grade registries have create a monster, but it will likely be satiated as methods to wear down coins to PO1 coins become more refined. >>

keyman64 · May 13, 2011 3:43AM

<< People would start their private Registries rathen than to let all that value vanish.

The exact same statement can be made about the regular Registry. Especially for moderns. >>

Just like people would start their own eBay/PayPal so easily when the fees got out of control? There is a difference between just some guy's website registry and the registry that is hosted by the same company that slabs the coins.

How about when a particular variety is REMOVED from a variety registry set? For the person that spent crap loads of time and possibly hundreds of dollars to find the right coin...then it is removed from the registry, what do you think happened to the value? No one wants that coin. Demand plummets and so does the value of the coin. THIS DID HAPPEN, just a few months ago.

TheShampineCollection · May 13, 2011 3:47AM

<< Price guides are rarely accurate on low pop coins. One coin might sell for a price that is triple that of another coin. Eight coins is relatively low pop. The low grade registries have create a monster, but it will likely be satiated as methods to wear down coins to PO1 coins become more refined. >>

I agree to a certain extent. The issue with the lowballs is that they are always off the same direction, and by 200%-1000%. Is there any other GROUP of low pop coins that is skewed that far in the price guide? TEN TIMES the value?

keyman64 · May 13, 2011 3:49AM

<< 

<< Price guides are rarely accurate on low pop coins. One coin might sell for a price that is triple that of another coin. Eight coins is relatively low pop. The low grade registries have create a monster, but it will likely be satiated as methods to wear down coins to PO1 coins become more refined. >>

I agree to a certain extent. The issue with the lowballs is that they are always off the same direction, and by 200%-1000%. Is there any other GROUP of low pop coins that is skewed that far in the price guide? TEN TIMES the value? >>

TEN TIMES? Think INFINITY! Most varieties are given a value of ZERO but I think they sell for a bit more than that.

CarsonCityGold · May 13, 2011 3:49AM

The PCGS price guide does accurately reflect the prices for the average, normal prices that most lowball coins change hands at . There are always anomalies for coin sales (nicely toned examples, a buyer that can't live without something, etc.). Some folks just hit the dealers scrap buckets a little more often.

19Lyds · May 13, 2011 4:11AM

I don't understand the concern since it only stands to reason that folks who want the number one slot in ANY PCGS Set Registry are going to pay serious money for that one coin which may be extremely difficult to find in a low grade. PO-01 Morgans are no exception since they can be difficult to get graded AND most folks pitch poor coins into the melt bucket.

IMO, Low Ball prices are exempt from the standard PCGS Price Guide just like those AU58 coins for the Everyman Collections with the understanding that folks often do pay extreme premiums (which do not necessarily reflect the true market value for a non-Set Registry participant) just to increase their standings in the sets. This scenario gets played out everyday but most commonly with high grade moderns who prices (and values) change with the next higher grade.

Just because two participants who need the same AU53 coin for their registries to achieve that number one slot might have a bidding war and end up paying 10 times price guide price for the coin does not mean that the price guide should be updated to reflect that selling price. Folks that participate in the Low Ball or Everyman Collections should realize and understand that.

JCMhouston · May 13, 2011 4:11AM

Fools and their money ...

questor54 · May 13, 2011 4:14AM

<< 

<< People would start their private Registries rathen than to let all that value vanish.

The exact same statement can be made about the regular Registry. Especially for moderns. >>

Just like people would start their own eBay/PayPal so easily when the fees got out of control? There is a difference between just some guy's website registry and the registry that is hosted by the same company that slabs the coins.

How about when a particular variety is REMOVED from a variety registry set? For the person that spent crap loads of time and possibly hundreds of dollars to find the right coin...then it is removed from the registry, what do you think happened to the value? No one wants that coin. Demand plummets and so does the value of the coin. THIS DID HAPPEN, just a few months ago. >>

Don't collect to satisfy the Registry.

questor54 · May 13, 2011 4:17AM

<< I don't understand the concern since it only stands to reason that folks who want the number one slot in ANY PCGS Set Registry are going to pay serious money for that one coin which may be extremely difficult to find in a low grade. PO-01 Morgans are no exception since they can be difficult to get graded AND most folks pitch poor coins into the melt bucket.

IMO, Low Ball prices are exempt from the standard PCGS Price Guide just like those AU58 coins for the Everyman Collections with the understanding that folks often do pay extreme premiums (which do not necessarily reflect the true market value for a non-Set Registry participant) just to increase their standings in the sets. This scenario gets played out everyday but most commonly with high grade moderns who prices (and values) change with the next higher grade.

Just because two participants who need the same AU53 coin for their registries to achieve that number one slot might have a bidding war and end up paying 10 times price guide price for the coin does not mean that the price guide should be updated to reflect that selling price. Folks that participate in the Low Ball or Everyman Collections should realize and understand that. >>

Coins911 · May 13, 2011 9:48AM

<< 

<< I sold a Pop 1 Morgan P01 for $800. I don't get it but i'm glad some one wanted to pay me that much >>

I'd say that is pretty accurate for a Pop 1 PO01 Morgan. What does the price guide say that coin is worth, $40-$60? Have any more PO01 coins you'd like to sell? >>

Greg - Send me a PM i have another one for sale. You might want to enable PM's on your profile

Lucanus · May 13, 2011 3:45PM

Kudos to PCGS for not jacking up lowball prices to reflect ridiculous current prices realized. Lowball collecting like all coin collecting should be fun, not foolish.
If there were registry sets for bent coins or mutilated coins by series, would artificial demand created by enthusiasts for those coins justify higher published
prices? High lowball prices are not good for numismatics.

Doug

streeter · May 13, 2011 4:29PM

dlmtorts · May 13, 2011 9:42PM

How does one "compete" to have the best lowball set? Is it simply completeness or is there competition among complete sets to have the "worst" of the lowball sets? I guess people will collect anything, but lowball set collecting is not something I see in my future. Best of luck to those that do collect these.

metalmeister · May 14, 2011 1:36AM

Can't belive I am reading this

homerunhall · May 14, 2011 1:36AM

A couple of thoughts.

We're still trying to get it right. The low ball "Market" is still pretty new. What we don't want to do is put a coin at $800 based on one sale and then have it sell the next month for $75. So we're being conservative...probably too conservative. The other thing is that we really don't have a good feel for what these coins are worth. I'm a U.S. coin expert (excuse the humility!) but I'm pretty clueless when it comes to low ball prices.

Bottom line...we're working on it (along with 215,000 other prices daily and 15 million and growing historical prices). We appreciate you're input and we'll watch the market more closely and get it right eventually.

hrh

BillJones · May 14, 2011 1:43AM

I'm sorry, but common date Morgan and Peace dollars in PO-01 are junk IMO. If you want to pay a really high price for some sort of fad, that's your business.

But if the coin is worth little more than melt as a raw coin, putting really high price on it because it's certified makes no sense. To me putting a low price on this type of material is a matter of consumer protection. We don't need to get new collectors thinking that "slicks” (very low grade silver dollars) are worth 10 times the price listed.

Frankcoins · May 14, 2011 2:44AM

I think encouraging this is bad for the hobby. Enough time in a rock tumbling machine can make UNLIMITED quantities of P01 coins.

HoledandCreative · May 14, 2011 5:49AM

I recently sold a Fair 1903-O Morgan. A fairly scarce coin in any circulated grade. I do agree that Silver Dollars are the most available pocket pieces. They were, and probably still are, the choice of the people that wish to carry. Commems are probably second. A pocketpiece Dime just doesn't cut it as a "Look at this" coin.

Do the rock tumbling machines really work well enough to pass PCGS standards?

People collect what they want and like. Prices are crazy high for 66 and up. Prices might be crazy for 1s and 2s. Grading standards are going down every day. So, 64s and 5s are becoming tomorrow's 66s up for now.

Higashiyama · May 14, 2011 6:58AM

"I think encouraging this is bad for the hobby. Enough time in a rock tumbling machine can make UNLIMITED quantities of P01 coins."

Is that really true? I suspect a rock tumbler will result in a rather shiny surface compared to a coin that has been in circulation for 50 + years.

I think it is fine for the hobby if people collect coins that have served long in circulation. (or as a prized pocket piece)

Regarding price, the market for these things is extremely thin, so they are nearly impossible to price. I'll pay MS65 money for a P01 Cincinnati!

As an aside, although the registry has certainly facilitated this market, I think some of the original promotion was done by exuberant collectors like Braddick ten years ago on this board.

robkool · May 14, 2011 8:33AM

I wonder what a pcgs 1834 G06 classic head $5 half eagle would go for ???
POP 1 with none lower...

CarsonCityGold · May 14, 2011 8:52AM

Mr Hall, the OP may have a different agenda. Why would anyone trying to expand their lowball collection "complain" that the price guide is too low. He may be attemping to rationalize the prices he has offered some of his coins for sale at. There are always a few exceptions, but the guide is close to the real world.
Just my 2 cents from a long time low ball collector.
Thanks, CCG
P.S. For those curious about low ball sets feel free to check out my Peace Dollars at the link below.
Happy Collecting.

questor54 · May 14, 2011 9:18AM

Let's have separate Registries for each coin grade from 01 to 70. That way the prices of all coins would go up! We could also have separate Registries for each 'Genuine' code. I don't think a 'no holder' Registry would work, but I'm trying to figure out how it could be done.

coinman1889 · August 17, 2013 4:37PM

What PO01 coin sold for $800?

CoinMan1012 · August 17, 2013 5:51PM

This is comical.

DennisH · August 18, 2013 1:44AM

<< Make your own PO1's..................don't pay other people to make them for you. >>

Have you ever tried it? You should, because until you make your first PO01 you can't begin to imagine how incredibly hard it is.

Billet7 · August 18, 2013 2:51AM

I think lowball is great, gives people without much money the opportunity to collect some great history. Interestingly the prices have risen with the lowball registry game. It is now more affordable to collect the AG and FA coins. I would rather an AG than a PO personally. I think part of the fun with lowball is making your own grades, I would not pay top dollar for bottom coins (pun intended.)

PCGS Lowball Prices

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