You are about to buy an expensive coin( for your budget). Do you get help?
TahoeDale
Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭
I am considering the purchase of a rare coin that would be very expensive, for my budget--over $100,000. I have done all the research and am confident the price is reasonable.
But, I am hesitant to pull the trigger without expert advice. Do you seek out an independent( not the seller) expert to confirm the quality, and appropriateness of the price? I have viewed the coin in hand, but still am concerned that I am making a wise investment.
If it were a home, there would be onsite viewing, but also an inspection by an independent service-- checking the foundation, looking for termite damage, operation of all appliances, etc.
For a stock portfolio, the specifics of the fund, stock or bonds would be reviewed by a CFA.
What about a rare coin? even for a person that has collected for 20 plus years?
But, I am hesitant to pull the trigger without expert advice. Do you seek out an independent( not the seller) expert to confirm the quality, and appropriateness of the price? I have viewed the coin in hand, but still am concerned that I am making a wise investment.
If it were a home, there would be onsite viewing, but also an inspection by an independent service-- checking the foundation, looking for termite damage, operation of all appliances, etc.
For a stock portfolio, the specifics of the fund, stock or bonds would be reviewed by a CFA.
What about a rare coin? even for a person that has collected for 20 plus years?
TahoeDale
0
Comments
<< <i>What has the sales history of that date and mm been? >>
This! ....along with is it in a PCGS holder? (likely 2 or 3 opinions there), is it CAC'd? (likely an opinion or two there), have you shown it to a few people on these boards that are well respected in dealing with something of that caliber...what did they say? What is the auction history of the coin over the past 20 years?
If all of these things come back favorable then I cannot think of too many reasons NOT to jump in....based on the limited information that you have provided.
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
if it does .....
There are 10 types of people in the world, those who understand binary and those who do not.
But, over the past two years, I have watched as auction results slip downward, and granted, the coin in this grade doesn't exactly come up very often, and the newly available coins are not what I would even consider "average" for the grade, but it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in my investment (there, I said it) to see PCGS reactively lower the guide price.
This is not to say that I haven't done very well with other coins. I mean, the ups are consistently outweighing the downs with 4 and low 5 figure coins, but when so much is tied up in a single coin, it's easy to question the sanity of such an aquisition.
AND, with things the way they are, the pool of prospective buyers is stagnant at best, and probably near bottom, where most people interested in owning such a coin already do. Hrmph.
So, in all, if I were to simply place the coin in auction today, I would probably stand to lose 30 - 40 percent of my initial investment, unless two like-minded individuals decide that mine is the coin they need for the same reasons that my coin spoke to me over two years ago.
But maybe all that doesn't matter. I mean, I'm not really planning on selling it any time soon. My kids are years away from college, and even with that, I probably won't be forced to sell for any other reason than perhaps catastorphic medical reasons, and the simple fact is that I TRULY ENJOY MY COINS, ALL OF THEM.
So, YES! I think that help is important, but even that may not be enough. I think that what is most important is how much the coin speaks to you. That, combined with prospective popularity and rarity. Ask yourself just how important the coin is to you, to have it in your portfolio, to be able to look at it and show it off, and how important it will be perceived by the market when it comes time to sell. Also, consider the availability of comparable coins that you may be able to purchase down the road. I mean, opportunity is important, but how often does it knock? You've been at this for at least a few up-down cycles, so you should have a pretty good idea what I mean.
I personally know that my criteria will be changed the next time I purchase a big-dog coin.
Empty Nest Collection
<< <i>For a 100k coin I would definitely seek out an objective professional opinion. >>
This was my first thought.
Therefore, my answer is that if I were concerned enough that I needed expert help, I would not buy it.
I would send a pm or phone call to a few people who can be trusted, AND those who know the series. Most high end buyers do their homework, or at least have someone do it for them, it's just a good way to minimize risk.
As far as knowing if it's a good investment or not...who's to say? Sure, it's an educated guess, but this is one thing you can't always know. Best to use historical data to determine if it is likely to increase in value...not much more can be done, no one has a crystal ball (at least not one that works!)
I'm excited to find out what the coin in question is. Looking forward to seeing it on the forum.
I will give some more specifics. It is a FH early dollar in PC AU 58. Looks like a 63, except for some very slight rub. Color is light gold, no adjustment marks. Very few have traded over the last 10 years.
Could easily be a $125,000 coin if it were MS. But it is just a fab 58.
It is in an upcoming auction, and there will be many bidders present( or at least bidding). Estimate will be about 90K, but it will be fought for. One as nice will not come along except perhaps every 5 years.
No doubt an expert employed to view the coin will agree re the quality. Question is the price.
Any more thoughts? or just set a limit and see what happens?
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
<< <i>Have faith in your judgement. >>
ill agree with that. if you have a mentor, talk to them as well. best wishes, itll work out
It also would be well if we had some idea as what sort of coin it is. Barring that perhaps you might look at your own experience and consider how many of these coins you have seen. What’s the chance of finding another that will be “slam dunk” for you and not a piece about which you question your judgment?
In my own case I’ve spent that much money one coin once. Right now it does not look like buying that piece was a great deal because the price as fallen on the piece. While the coin is nice, it’s not as nice as it first appeared to me. Still if I had not bought it I’d still have a big hole in my type set.
If it's an area I'm comfortable with, I don't need help.
If not, then getting someone I trust to evaluate the coin AND represent me in auction (especially someone who has told me previously to NOT bid on a coin because of quality concerns) is probably as close as one is going to get to an honest opinion.
Grey Sheet bid is meaningless for this issue as it is for most other coins of this price class except generics like Stellas and MS67 High Reliefs. You're in quite a pickle.
5 years ago's prices are meaningless, and there aren't enough meaningful data points anyway. No responsible person would make a prediction some years out. Neither would I.
Classically cool coin that will never go out of style, though its market value may fluctuate. As a 58 you sadly eliminate some holder buyers like TDN
If it's not an "A" coin on overall "look", then pass at the level you're considering. If it is, going for it should be a function of passion, not ROI. Passion will be the next buyer's motivation for sure. CRO paid maybe 70K for an N58 (5 years ago?) that was brutal as an AU.
Still no help with what it might bring later.
http://rareassets.com/galleries/us_coins/1d.1795.b1.58.07428686.html
I don't always listen to what I'm told or agree with others' viewpoint, but another set of eyes (or two or three) can't hurt, IMO.
The market for early dollars has been flooded with dreck for the past few years which has depressed prices, softened interest and resulted in anyone owning nice material holding it back. One well known hoarder who bought based on price alone dumped over 800 early dollars on to the market in the past few years. Serious buyers know this and will ignore recent sales prices.
I predict record prices will be seen on the better coins in this sale. Premium Quality early dollars are very scarce especially in PCGS AU58. The last time many of these coins were available was the Cardinal sale which realized strong prices for the time. Today the rarity of some of those pieces is even better understood which will result in them bringing a lot more. Once gone it will be at least several more years before they appear again.
Wow.....
Edited to add: If it's in a PCGS slab, that's a pretty good 2nd opinion and insurance! (If the slab's real...)
Empty Nest Collection
why not. Auction houses these days are sending the better consigned pieces off to CAC to ensure better prices and commissions.
For that level of a coin I'd be looking for help. Even with 35 yrs of collecting experience I know I don't see enough coins on a routine basis to not take advantage of a seasoned
dealer's expertise. TDN mentioned O'Connor in his link. Other worthy ones would include Colonel Jessup, NJCoincrank, MrEureka, just to name a few. Note that none of these guys
are top end retailers. They survive more on their dealer to dealer chops than by selling to retail clients. Exceptions to that rule would be dealers like CRO or NH Rare Coins (Warren Mills). There are dozens of other worthy dealers who can do the same as well. The 5% fee is money well spent considering I could easily err +-$20,000 on a $100K+ coin. If the coin is as wonderful as you suggest, there will be humongous bidding pressure from other date and type collectors as well as retail dealers trying to place coins with clients. Having a sharp
and well known "dealer's dealer" bidding for you might deter some of the competition....who knows. If other bidders see a date collector bidding on their own they might just be inclined to keep pushing the bid higher.
There are places to go right now for opinions/expertise where it won't cost you anything. Fwiw that AU58 linked by TDN is esentially problem free, but personally the surfaces are a bit washed out for my tastes. Then again, I'll never be in the market for AU FH bust coins of any denomination unless they are priced under $10K-15K or so. But I do like the silver plug AU linked above. Much nicer surfaces and far less washed out imo. Nice pedigree and stickered too. But if a seated dollar it would be graded AU55 or even 53. As a Morgan dollar maybe only AU50-53.
roadrunner
<< <i>No doubt an expert employed to view the coin will agree re the quality. Question is the price.
Any more thoughts? or just set a limit and see what happens? >>
IMO, it all comes down to your collecting objectives (is the coin a must?) and your personal finances.
Sleep on it for a few more days, come up with a number you can live with, bid it, and let the chips fall
where they may. If you don't win, so be it.