Future of the hobby?

laxmaster92 · February 14, 2011 5:56AM

Where does everybody see the future of the hobby heading?

DoubleEagle59 · February 14, 2011 6:04AM

With the current average age of coin collectors being I'd say somewhere between 50 and 60, it has to have a future of decline.

You'll always have a strong base of investors/collectors for the quality coins, but the low to middle range of coins I believe will have a decline of value and demand in the future.

Add to this the great surplus of collections that will be liquidated in the next 20 years and you'll have an oversupply too.

I don't think the coin market will ever get to the point where the stamp market is today, but it will be somewhat similar.

I'm 51 and I'm locked into 'selling mode' when it comes to my coin collection. Everything is for sale. For various reasons, one because of my age and secondly, maybe more importantly, I'm using the money to buy PM's.

Taking your coins to your grave is a huge mistake. You've got to have an exit strategy (selling) at some point in your life. Very few families who inherit these collections will not even want them and in so disposing of them, will sell them at a loss.

Constantine · February 14, 2011 6:10AM

<< With the current average age of coin collectors being I'd say somewhere between 50 and 60, it has to have a future of decline.

You'll always have a strong base of investors/collectors for the quality coins, but the low to middle range of coins I believe will have a decline of value and demand in the future.

Add to this the great surplus of collections that will be liquidated in the next 20 years and you'll have an oversupply too.

I don't think the coin market will ever get to the point where the stamp market is today, but it will be somewhat similar.

I'm 51 and I'm locked into 'selling mode' when it comes to my coin collection. Everything is for sale. For various reasons, one because of my age and secondly, maybe more importantly, I'm using the money to buy PM's. >>

Hmmm....I am in my mid-30s and I hope to have more income when I am in my 50-60s and hence be able to afford higher end coins in my collection. Also, I am kinda looking forward to my "old man" days where I can sit in a chair and hobby all day long (which sadly my life is a bit like that now!). But point being is I look at my golden years as prime collecting years and think others do too?

Baley · February 14, 2011 6:12AM

"the hobby", "the economy", "the weather", "politics", what will the future bring for such enormous, diverse, broad and deep concepts?

change I guess, in some respects, and things staying the same in other respects.

FilthyBroke · February 14, 2011 6:13AM

<< With the current average age of coin collectors being I'd say somewhere between 50 and 60, it has to have a future of decline. >>

Are you sure it isn't that the 50-60 crowd just has more expendable income and interest in the hobby? I know that as I grow older, history has become much more interesting to me, and that I have better means for a hobby like this. Just a thought.

I think the youth of today will eventually outgrow the gadget fads and start to notice the importance of history, maybe leading them into numismatics.

ambro51 · February 14, 2011 6:15AM

DUDE Youre only 51 and youre in selling mode? Looking over the funeral directors in the yellow pages yet? Booked your stay in the nursing home yet?

Cmon. 51 is YOUNG. Your best, and most interesting collecting years stretch before you...at least two decades worth.

To 'give up' at 51...geez Im speechless....

DoubleEagle59 · February 14, 2011 6:16AM

<< 

<< With the current average age of coin collectors being I'd say somewhere between 50 and 60, it has to have a future of decline. >>

Are you sure it isn't that the 50-60 crowd just has more expendable income and interest in the hobby? I know that as I grow older, history has become much more interesting to me, and that I have better means for a hobby like this. Just a thought.

I think the youth of today will eventually outgrow the gadget fads and start to notice the importance of history, maybe leading them into numismatics. >>

Next coin look, have a good look around the room.

Look at the dealers....look at the collectors.

If I'm off in my estimation, then it's definitely high 40's, but I don't think so.

If asked for a year, I'd say the average age is 53.

DoubleEagle59 · February 14, 2011 6:17AM

<< DUDE Youre only 51 and youre in selling mode? Looking over the funeral directors in the yellow pages yet? Booked your stay in the nursing home yet?

Cmon. 51 is YOUNG. Your best, and most interesting collecting years stretch before you...at least two decades worth.

To 'give up' at 51...geez Im speechless.... >>

Dude...you have to read my post, completely.

I said 'more importantly, I'm selling because I'm buying PM's'

You have to read DUDE.

Constantine · February 14, 2011 6:18AM

<< DUDE Youre only 51 and youre in selling mode? Looking over the funeral directors in the yellow pages yet? Booked your stay in the nursing home yet?

Cmon. 51 is YOUNG. Your best, and most interesting collecting years stretch before you...at least two decades worth.

To 'give up' at 51...geez Im speechless.... >>

I know! Is the life expectancy much lower in Canada??? LOL. With the grace of God, you have like 40 more years left!

Monstarcoins · February 14, 2011 6:21AM

I dont see many folks as young as me (24) at coin shows which for me is okay. I enjoy my coins and if the Market falls out because there are not many my age interested that means I will have some nice coins for cheap. If the Market doesn't fall out that means my children will have quite the nest egg to cash in when I die. Its win win in my opinion.....

taxmad · February 14, 2011 6:22AM

Depends if the industry gets a handle on the fake coins/slabs and 'doctoring'. I filled Whitman albums from the change on my paper route. After I graduated college, I bought a nice type set holder and started filling it. It was partially completed prior to buying a house and having kids. As it does, money got tight. It was frustrating being told coins were worth much less than I paid because they had been cleaned, dipped, etc. I would love to start up again, but the thought of making hundred dollar mistakes (or multiples) keeps me from opening up the checkbook. I will probably buy a graded type of a couple of my favorite coins and stop. My kids enjoy the coins the tooth fairy brings them, but who knows if they will develop a desire to collect - especially since paperboys don't collect anymore...

DoubleEagle59 · February 14, 2011 6:23AM

<< I dont see many folks as young as me (24) at coin shows which for me is okay. I enjoy my coins and if the Market falls out because there are not many my age interested that means I will have some nice coins for cheap. If the Market doesn't fall out that means my children will have quite the nest egg to cash in when I die. Its win win in my opinion..... >>

I totally agree.

If you're very young, very smart about what you buy, I think you'll do very well with your coin investments.

Good point!

Greeniejr · February 14, 2011 6:26AM

The biggest issue which will be tough for our industry is not the fact that the collector base is aging. Rather, it is the fact that the generation of numismatists I refer to as the "dead generation" is getting to the point where they can afford nice coins. What I mean by the dead generation is the generation of collectors who started collecting after the 70s when most cool things were out of circulation, and before the state quarters hit the market. I have always believed people who are collectors are born collectors and will collect something whether it be cars, coins or rocks. Most collectors who collect coins as children do tend to stop collecting when other interests get in the way of their cash flow. When they get older they think back to their collection and return to the hobby. There is about a 25-30 year gap of people who were not exposed to coin collecting as children which may lead to some lean years. However, in 30-40 years when all these kids who grew up with state quarters hit the market... watch out.

ambro51 · February 14, 2011 6:50AM

Dont worry new old people are being created every day.

llafoe · February 14, 2011 6:54AM

<< I said 'more importantly, I'm selling because I'm buying PM's'. >>

I'll let you in on a little secret... PMs are free on this forum!

19Lyds · February 14, 2011 6:59AM

<< 

<< 

<< With the current average age of coin collectors being I'd say somewhere between 50 and 60, it has to have a future of decline. >>

Are you sure it isn't that the 50-60 crowd just has more expendable income and interest in the hobby? I know that as I grow older, history has become much more interesting to me, and that I have better means for a hobby like this. Just a thought.

I think the youth of today will eventually outgrow the gadget fads and start to notice the importance of history, maybe leading them into numismatics. >>

Next coin look, have a good look around the room.

Look at the dealers....look at the collectors.

If I'm off in my estimation, then it's definitely high 40's, but I don't think so.

If asked for a year, I'd say the average age is 53. >>

So what yer point?

When I was a kid, all the dealers were old men.

When I was in 20's, all the dealers were old men.
When I was in my 30's all the dealers were old men. Some had their 20+ something sons with them.
When I was in my 40's all the dealers were old men. Some had their 30+ something sons working with them.
When I was in my 50's all the dealers were old men. Their 40+ something sons had their own tables.
Now that I'm in my 60's, all the folks at coin shows look like kids!

Coin collecting is all about disposable income and the allure of coin investments. The older you get, the more money you have to play with and the more you can invest and flip in addition to adding to your personal collection in the hopes that one day. your efforts will pay off.

It has not changed over the past 50 years except that the folks who collected as kids, share their stories now that they are "older gentlemen". There are many young folks that are interested in coins yet do not have the income, or savings, to be as active as most of the olker guys.

I could be wrong, but I believe that HRH was a kid once.

ajman · February 14, 2011 7:04AM

Taking your coins to your grave is a huge mistake. You've got to have an exit strategy (selling) at some point in your life. Very few families who inherit these collections will not even want them and in so disposing of them, will sell them at a loss. >>

That is why I intend to use my collection to pad my retirement, I guess I could be considered a collector/investor.

joebb21 · February 14, 2011 7:09AM

THis hobby has always been full of older people.
How many teens could afford building a large collection?
twenties?

its only once people start settling down that they start getting money.
hence 30+ is going to be a good starting age. (yes we will have younder people... but older will always be the majority)

MrEureka · February 14, 2011 7:12AM

I expect life expectancy and global prosperity to continue their long term upward trends for the foreseeable future. Therefore, I don't see demographics as a big problem. On the other hand, I'm very concerned about counterfeiting.

droopyd · February 14, 2011 7:14AM

I think it depends on what you have.

The "typical" coin collection - dominated by Whitman or Dansco circulated date sets and recent Mint products - will likely experience slowly declining demand over the next few decades.

I can't see the kids of today who discover numismatics getting excited about date sets of "drecky" G/VG Indian or wheat cents, runs of proof sets, etc.

I do see type sets as continuing in popularity, as well as select series (Morgans I think will always be popular).

Of course, truly high-end coins will always have a market.

bidask · February 14, 2011 7:36AM

<< I expect life expectancy and global prosperity to continue their long term upward trends for the foreseeable future. Therefore, I don't see demographics as a big problem. On the other hand, I'm very concerned about counterfeiting. >>

I agree with you.....global growth of coin collecting is often left out of these kind of discussions.

291fifth · February 14, 2011 7:49AM

The very high end "trophy coin" market will remain strong. These are rare coins and the very wealthy will continue to seek them out.

The middle of the market will suffer greatly over the next twenty years as the people who make up this market age and die off. Much of the material that makes up this market is not rare or even scarce. Collections and hoards (and hoards are likely to be a much more significant factor than many realize) are going to hit a market that is shrinking. "Dreck" is going to become virtually unsalable.

Young people are not interested in coin collecting. The number of new collectors (not bullion speculators) entering the field will be well below the die-off rate.

The counterfeiting problem could hasten the decline of the hobby. I now see counterfeits (and counterfeit slabs) illustrated in threads on this site that would fool the vast majority of collectors and many dealers as well.

While the coin market is not exactly like the stamp market there are many similarities. I recall a conversation I had at a local stamp club, circa 1984, in which I correctly predicted the decline of the stamp market over the next 20 years. Many of the club members agreed with my prediction. (Keep in mind that this was before the advent of the self-stick stamp era.) I abandoned stamp collecting in 1995 when I auctioned the majority of my collection and took a loss that I am still smarting from. The best performing part of the stamp collection that I auctioned were the empty Lindner albums ... no joke.

TwoSides2aCoin · February 14, 2011 7:56AM

Someone will die, a safe deposit box will be opened and the hobby will start all over again for some young person who has no clue what numismatics is.

Kove · February 14, 2011 8:08AM

I had a college professor who once joked "When I joined my coin club in 1962, I was the youngest member of the club. 35 years later, I'm still the youngest member of my coin club."

As a 30-something full-time dealer, I don't too many peers my own age in this profession. However, I feel the future is reasonably bright. The hobby will survive, as better coins keep going up in value, and "starter" coins fall in value until they reach a point where somebody gets excited about the history they can hold in their hand for such a low price. A lot of other coins will get melted down in the precious metals boom, and will take a lot of supply off the market.

One of the biggest threats to the hobby in my opinion is the increasing use of plastic and digital "bits" to pay for items by the younger generation. Kids just don't use coins as much in daily commerce as they used to, so they're less likely to get started.

However, I believe there will always be people who want to collect something, and coins will be at the top of many lists, because their hobby can also be a store of value. And the continuing precious metals boom will bring positive attention to bullion and nice coins.

vibr0nic · February 14, 2011 8:33AM

Perspective of a newbie here...

I am in my mid 30s and just starting out. I'm building a 7070 type set - uncirculated where financially sane, and I'm about 20% done.

First, I think the hobby is more accessible than ever for those who want to get into it. I also think its possible that the Internet has potential may draw in people who might not otherwise have gotten into the hobby. Honestly, I doubt I would have been caught dead at a coin show, but I've been drawn into the appeal of coins through the Internet, and I think the Internet is a absolutely key to support for the hobby's future.

Second, I don't worry that much about declining value. However, if I do, I worry more about declining value when it comes to spending $1200 on a 66 quarter than $1200 on an uncirculated gold eagle. There is something to be said for the universal appeal of gold.

Whether or not my approach will be like other newcomers, I don't know, but my long term collecting goals are also gold-oriented. Specifically, I plan to acquire 19th and 20th century gold coin sets, and I plan to restrict myself to only a modest (<50%) premium over the intrinsic value. Sometimes that will mean I can squeeze a 63+ out of an auction on a gold eagle... but othertimes, I will have to settle for something less pretty. I'm fine with that.

Anyways, just sharing my own perspective as a new collector. Take it for what it's worth.

On another note, I notice many responses making comparisons to the stamp marketplace in one way or another. Just how bad has the stamp decline been? Any striking examples of popular types that declined in value, etc? I know nothing on the history of the philatelic marketplace.

Bayard1908 · February 14, 2011 12:03PM

<< Dont worry new old people are being created every day. >>

When I started going to coin shows as a young teenager in the late 1970s, almost everyone in attendance was middle aged or geriatric. Shows are still full of middle aged and old guys, and probably always will be. Participation in this hobby requires a certain level of wealth and leisure time.

Barry · February 14, 2011 12:52PM

I believe it's like musical chairs.
Don't be the one caught without a chair when the music stops.

ecichlid · February 14, 2011 1:01PM

I think that most people who collect coins have used money as a children. This will change soon and then the hobby will be less than it is today.

melvin289 · February 14, 2011 1:59PM

What concerns me about the future of the hobby. When I was going to classes at the local community college in the 90's a teacher told us of a seminar she had attended. It seems she had sat through a class on elementary education and the biggest problem the teachers had was teaching the children how to have an imagination. Today's kids have been raised in front of color TV's with realistic video games and everything is right there in front of them in living color. They have never had to think, to imagine. When I was kid my Father told us bedtime stories which we had to use our imagination to grasp. Todays kids can't or don't watch black and white movies. They say they are boring. I magine not being able to appreciate Citizen Kane or The Maltese Falcon unless it's colorized.

To me colorized coins are an abomination but it seems people with no imagination need these to be able to tell what is on the coin. They can't appeciate a coin on its own merit. They can't appreciate the artwork. I may be off in left field somewhere with this line of thinking but it does concern me as to the future of our hobby.

Ron

Waltz · February 14, 2011 2:53PM

I have some strong opinions on the topic. First, those who compare stamps and coins must realize that, at the moment it's an unfair comparision - little bits of paper with glue on the back vs precious metal. Different universe. For the "stamps going extinct=money going extinct" crowd consider this: How long will it take for the U.S. economy to go coinless/paperless? 10 years? 25 Years? If we can agree that it will eventually happen then I predict there will be more people wanting to collect both type and complete denominations...think "Complete U.S. Cents 1793-2024" as a start.

The value of anything is predicated on what someone else is willing to pay - for a business, bullion, or Legend "supercoin". Companies are often valued on earnings or assets while coins seem to be a function of competition among collectors. The entry of just a couple more collectors in any series can drive the market substantially higher. The lack thereof = fewer dollars.

The more interesting question is not whether we'll live to see the demise of coin collecting, but rather which areas will remain/become popular and which won't.

HalfStrike · February 14, 2011 3:45PM

The future looks bright for gold and silver, the future looks bleak for clad and copper.

Tdec1000 · February 14, 2011 3:55PM

I am 31, started collecting in my late teens. There are quite a few of us that are from the early 20's to 30's. A couple I know are flippers and vest pocket dealers. Good Folks and this is how they started. I had my own coin shop when I was 27 yrs old. Lots of lessons learned but I did it on my own without a loan.

stealer · February 14, 2011 4:22PM

<< 

I can't see the kids of today who discover numismatics getting excited about date sets of "drecky" G/VG Indian or wheat cents, runs of proof sets, etc.
>>

I can vouch for that.

Unknown · February 14, 2011 5:14PM

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melvin289 · February 14, 2011 5:47PM

Very well said Prof. Hill. Early in the 20th century the top numismatist collected Classic Commems and had 1 or both types of Norse medals in his/her cabinet. Now look at Classic Commems. Things do turn around and move in different directions. I would hate to see the fall of our beloved hobby but we'll have to see what the future holds.

Ron

<< 

<< Where does everybody see the future of the hobby heading? >>

The rollercoaster ride will resume eventually, and even *if* the very long-term does result in higher prices for various "wealthy people's" coins, the trend is never straight up.

This market WILL fall, and if any don't think so, they either haven't been around it for very long, are ill-informed, and/or are mildly delusional.

'Odd' how, in the past 6 to 12 months, even as the CDN says the market moves slowly, but surely, higher, the *discounts* I'm offered are growing as well. Many "key" dates, previously only offered at steep premiums, are suddenly available at or near 'sheet', even to "lowly" vestpocket types. (Need a better canary in your coal-mine than that?)

Coin *collectors* are and will be the basis, and without them, the "investment" realm eventually falters as well.

You invest in what you feel others will want in the future, but WHY will those 'future people' want what they hold no interest in, that which may, by then, be essentially 'passe'?

"High end" rare coins?

What exactly *is* that? "Extreme rarity"? "Ultra-high quality"?

If almost nobody collects BU Morgans by date in 15, 20, (or 50) years, explain to me why an 1893-S in MS65 should be worth any more than an 1893-S in MS63, (and eventually, more than an 1879-S in MS60?)

It ALL depends on demand, and demand *shifts and changes* with time. It ALWAYS does.

Look at (much of the) Seated coinage! Premiums for "ultra rare" higher-MS pieces are in decline, and have been for a long time. It's not collectible with todays dispersion of material and demand. (For it to again be 'collectible', a drastic reduction in demand would need take place.)

If far fewer people want old coppers, why would even the semi-museum-quality pieces of the 1790's rise further in value? Surely they would then decline in value, with fewer 'takers'.

Overall, prosperity around the world is on the rise, as never before, but can you also say the same of the 'west' in general, or the USA, singularly? (Wallpaper, even fancy green & black FRN wallpaper can only cover the gaping holes in the fiscal walls for so long.)

(Perhaps those ultra-rare, and still *very* cheap, (when compared to US coins,) "world" coins will outperform any and all US coins, and in a stunning manner, who can say?)

Don't bet the farm on a forever-up US coin market, it simply cannot be.

*****************

Edited to add: Of course, if you MUST bet a 'few of the cows', I'd say go with EF/AU 'rare' Type coins, Choice to Gem "common" Type coins, PL-DPL "common" Morgans, (A 'generic' S-mint MS67PL with cameo is "common", right? Look how many "rare date" morgans are available, in comparison, and *they* are said to be "truly rare"!!) ...and any "common" CC coinage, esp Morgans & large gold. (AND high-quality, scarce world coins.)

That's my 2c worth anyway. >>

Unknown · February 14, 2011 6:20PM

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Unknown · February 14, 2011 6:38PM

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ricko · February 14, 2011 11:27PM

It is always very interesting to read these 'crystal ball' threads on the future of our hobby. Obviously, all offerings are opinions, some buttressed by history, others standing weakly on hypothesis. Contrary to popular perception, there is a firm base (actually, just look at some of the posts here) of younger dealers/collectors -20's, 30's, 40's. Many discuss their kids interest in coins (which will diminish with puberty). The only prediction that can be relied upon is the assurance that the hobby/market will cycle. Interests will change, values will vary reflecting this interest. Even if coinage was eliminated (i.e. all plastic/electronic) there would be even increased interest in the 'old' method of exchange. It is unlikely that scenario will occur in the near future. The only thing that remains the same, is change itself. (Someone said that - not sure who, and not feeling like looking it up.)
Many have said our collection is an investment (true) and should be disposed of before we die (or at least have appropriate measures in place to dispose of it profitably). I, personally, do not agree. I just don't care what happens to the coins then. Dead is dead. That, of course, is my opinion, and others differ. So be it - some people collect beanie babies... more power to them. Talk about a hobby that crashed... what a disaster. Fortunately, numismatics is more firmly established.
The shows will go on, the coins will survive (many of them), and new people will collect them.
Cheers, RickO

DoubleEagle59 · February 14, 2011 11:48PM

My points expressed earlier are based solely on the Canadian market, since that is all I know.

There are definitely similarities between our industries yet differences also.

Let me give you one recent example.......

After the financial crisis in the Fall of 2008, our Canadian coin market was totally decimated.

Nobody bought anything! It's just coming back now, in drips and drabs.

Your US market, I believe, tookm a hit, but it rebounded a lot quicker than mine.

Why?...because there's more US collectors in numbers and more US collectors who have the financila resources who can take the 'hit' of the 2008 market slide and still continue collecting.

Here in Canada, where there's only 3 collectors chasing after a $5000 coin and all three don't buy after the 2008 crisis, makes for a very difficult recovery.

My point is.... here in Canada where there is already a small group of 'big time' collectors, alongwith the aging of them, added to this the fact that there is very few new, young coin collectors, all results in a future predicted decline for the coin market.

One more point...last coin show here in Ontario, I arrived 15 minutes early before it opened. 25 of us were waiting at the door. I was the youngest in the crowd (I'm 51). I'll leave it up to you where you think the market is heading, based on my 'Canadian' evidence.

RedTiger · February 14, 2011 11:56PM

<< 

<< 

I can't see the kids of today who discover numismatics getting excited about date sets of "drecky" G/VG Indian or wheat cents, runs of proof sets, etc.
>>

I can vouch for that. >>

The kids at my coin club, about 11 years old, like the low grade Indian cents and often choose those coins to bid on in the club auction. So it depends on the kid.

As for the general question, the demographics for the hobby are near peak right now, with the baby boomers reaching what seem to be the peak collecting years of 50 to 65. So a mild decline is likely, at least in the U. S. and for U. S. coins. Many younger generation of Americans are from non-collecting cultures, or income levels. Fewer people pay with cash. The demographics look even worse for Japan (and Europe), so Japanese collectibles are likely to suffer more. Americans interested in the demographics of just about anything, including collectibles have a window into the future in Japan. Japan is about 5 to 10 years ahead in terms of the demographics (along with government debt and other issues).

I would tend to agree that prospects for world coin collecting look good as there are huge populations of young people in many countries that have growing economies. Most of those growing economies still use cash and coin, so there is at least one more generation before the cashless society might become the norm.

EagleEye · February 14, 2011 11:59PM

So, who doesn't like money?

PawPaul · February 15, 2011 12:16AM

......many a young collector will be drawn in and captivated by the D. Carr Dollars , the State Quarters , and the mighty , mighty Franklin Half Dollar .

Best to welcome and embrace such things then to spit vile hatred like possessed demons

RedTiger · February 15, 2011 12:39AM

<< So, who doesn't like money? >>

The point others are making is that many folks never pay with cash and that number is growing every year. If young folks don't handle money, they will never search change, or appreciate it in any way. Sure they want money, but electronic bits in an account is what they equate with money, not the jingle jangle of change in the pocket, or the art work on old coins. Yes, there will be some coin collectors in a cashless society, but a lot less as a percentage than when folks got coins in their pay envelopes every week back in the 1950s.

Future of the hobby?

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