<< <i>I received an unsolicited mailer from O'connor Numismatics which strongly recommends selling rare coin now, based upon the premise that prices will fall over the next year or two.
For investors - "you should be selling into today's market".
For collectors - "If you are a collector, consider which coins you're most passionate about, that you still want to own long term, meaning 5 to 10 years plus. This is where you should focus your efforts, and for everything else, it's time to sell".
It struck me as very strongly worded collecting/investing advice. Did anyone else receive this, and if so what were your thoughts? >>
Far too many dealers try to play "investment advisors" when they have no training or certification to do so. The fact that they are buying and selling what they are advising people to buy or sell certainly makes their motives suspect.
If you are buying coins, I sell quality coins at fair prices. If you are selling I will make a fair offer. That's worked for me for 19 years full time in coins.
Frank Provasek - PCGS Authorized Dealer, Life Member ANA, Member TNA. www.frankcoins.com
<< <i>because I fear what I believe to be inevitable inflation, I'd rather have rare coins than cash
I argue that "rare coins as a hedge against inflation" hasn't worked for most coin buyers. >>
Rare coins did extremely well during the inflation of the 1970s. I would have done even better if I had held a little longer rather than selling out in September 1979.
<< <i>A well-written article but he does not understand the 1099-MISC law
Actually, I understand the requirements well. As it stands now, beginning Jan 1 2012, if I buy coins from you in amounts totaling more than $600 during a calendar year, I must file a form 1099 on these purchases. As a practical matter, in order to be sure whether or not your sales to me meet the $600 annual threshold, I will be collecting your tax information on every sale that you make to me, no matter how small. >>
If you want my SSN and personal info when i buy a $400 coin. I buy it from someone else not you.
As it stands now, beginning Jan 1 2012, if I buy coins from you in amounts totaling more than $600 during a calendar year, I must file a form 1099 on these purchases. As a practical matter, in order to be sure whether or not your sales to me meet the $600 annual threshold, I will be collecting your tax information on every sale that you make to me, no matter how small.
Do this apply to all industries? For example, will McDonald's have to worry about tracking which customers spend more than $600 a year?
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>As it stands now, beginning Jan 1 2012, if I buy coins from you in amounts totaling more than $600 during a calendar year, I must file a form 1099 on these purchases. As a practical matter, in order to be sure whether or not your sales to me meet the $600 annual threshold, I will be collecting your tax information on every sale that you make to me, no matter how small.
Do this apply to all industries? For example, will McDonald's have to worry about tracking which customers spend more than $600 a year? >>
They wont have to worry too long, as they will probably die off pretty quick---------BigE
<< <i>As it stands now, beginning Jan 1 2012, if I buy coins from you in amounts totaling more than $600 during a calendar year, I must file a form 1099 on these purchases. As a practical matter, in order to be sure whether or not your sales to me meet the $600 annual threshold, I will be collecting your tax information on every sale that you make to me, no matter how small.
Do this apply to all industries? For example, will McDonald's have to worry about tracking which customers spend more than $600 a year? >>
Once again, ( and I double checked today with the Dallas IRS office)
The only change in 1099 forms is that corporations make the same filings that persons have had to do for some 30 years. And retail sales are not included anyway. 1099 forms are for goods or services related to the "back office" part of a business...not costs of inventory.
The copy machine, the lawn guy, advertising, rent, attorney, accountant, fixed assets. And if you pay with a debit or credit card, you won't need to file a 1099 in any case. Any business is foolish that doesn't already pay for those business expenses with the many small business credit cards that pay cash rebates.
Retail sales were never intended to be included. That's just hogwash from the Cato Institute and talk radio, who pounce on any misrepresentation they can make about the health care bill to make people hate it. Looks like some of the jewelry and coin dealer trade groups, particularly Barry Stuppler (how many times did his actions get the ANA sued?) fell for the right wing think tank's analyses. The Cato Institute article actually concluded that instead of trying to collect income that tax evaders don't pay, a better solution is massive tax cuts, which would reduce the incentive to cheat!
The IRS is still working on implemention of this, and they legally cannot, under the Paperwork Reduction Act, implement something that would cause a deluge of paperwork. And they have the option of simply ignoring directives in any bill that don't make sense from a cost effective standpoint.
The outcry over this has just gone way over rational discusssion. If anyone has time to write letters to your lawmakers, there are many more issues of concern: Chinese counterfeits on online auctions, tungsten center fake gold bars, sales taxes on coins, unfair treatment of coins and bullion on capital gains taxes and IRA inclusion, treating B&M coin shops in some cities under "pawn shop laws" requiring 30 day holds before coins can be resold.
Frank Provasek - PCGS Authorized Dealer, Life Member ANA, Member TNA. www.frankcoins.com
Nebuchadnezzar<< Analyst … Upon reading your commentaries on Joe's coins, I find it incredibly misleading.>>
Are you referring to my one previous post in this thread, or are you responding to remarks that I have made about Joe’s coins in my columns or articles? For the moment, I will assume that you are focusing only upon my previous post in this thread. The main point of that post was not to analyze Joe’s prices, but rather to focus on the quality and importance of many of the coins that he offers. I was hoping that others would comment on specific prices, especially the forum members who were critical of Joe’s prices in their own respective posts. Those who publicly make negative claims about a dealer, in a way that is plausibly harmful to his livelihood, should be prepared to substantiate those claims with facts and/or logical arguments. It is their comments that are misleading, simplistic and unfair to O’Connor.
Nebuchadnezzar << To compare those values to the quote prices on several of the pieces is really discouraging from such a prolific writer as yourself.>>
It did not occur to me that anyone would assume that I had analyzed the prices of all the halves that I listed in one post in a thread. Like redbook prices and greysheet prices, PCGS prices have standing and a large following. Even when not supported by evidence, certain guide prices are important in that at least some buyers will rely upon them when making decisions. Even when you think that a PCGS price guide is value is wrong, others will think that it is correct, and some of these others will buy rare coins.
Nebuchadnezzar << You should realize how high the PCGS price guide figures are on such coins.>>
How do you suggest that I make this determination? There cannot exist a price guide that is accurate in regard to all rare U.S. coins. Why are you so sure that the PCGS price guide values are ‘too high’ for “such coins”? Are you implicitly referring to auction prices?
In some instances, auction results are retail prices, especially when the buyers are collectors. In other instances, auction results are wholesale prices, and such coins are later sold to collectors for 3% to 50% above the respective auction results. In the rare coin business, it is typical for a dealer to buy a coin at auction for his inventory and then later sell it for much more than he paid for it.
<< As a former journalist, I realize that facts are supposed to be reported, not opined on as an editorial writer should ... >>
There is no one source, or combination of bits of such information, that conclusively demonstrates the market price of a specific rare coin. Every coin is different. Even two coins of the same date and type that have received the same PCGS grade may have very different market values. In my post above, I pointed out that many of the coins, which O’Connor has sold or is offering, are truly special and I implied that these are often worth a premium over other coins of the same date, type and PCGS certified grade. I did not draw a conclusion about the specific value of any one of the coins that Joe is offering. I am puzzled by your criticism of my post.
What has not been discussed is the distinct possibility of US coins being sought by foreigners over the coming years as collectors from other nations prosper......that will bring new demand to our coins. I am thinking of Chinese collectors.
I believe there was a period of time our coinage was sought by the Japanese.
Having said that they will most likely seek out their own country's coinage first.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
This really seems to be a general discussion for a coin market that has several components that often move in different directions.
-Define what is rare -how many collectors are chasing the coin or series -factor in the promotional component -factor in the collector element in terms of the following:
1. quality for the grade 2. how often the coin surfaces for sale
Then, draw your own conclusions on a coin by coin basis and AVOID the general discussion
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>What has not been discussed is the distinct possibility of US coins being sought by foreigners over the coming years as collectors from other nations prosper......that will bring new demand to our coins. I am thinking of Chinese collectors.
I believe there was a period of time our coinage was sought by the Japanese.
Having said that they will most likely seek out their own country's coinage first. >>
Bidask, hopefully these foreigners won't be looking for 1909 $10 in PR65!
I like working with a dealer like Joe that's consistently cautioning me not to expect short-term price gains. Maybe it's reverse psychology but it makes me feel like he has my interests in mind.
Joe said the same thing to Steve Duckor and I at FUN five years ago
Joe might have been a year early but in general real estate and many other hard assets essentially peaked in the 2004-2007 range. There wasn't really a large increase in overall prices in the coin market from 2005 to 2007. Housing prices in my area reached 95-98% of their peak in 2004-2005. It was clear to me that even in 2004 rare coin prices and homes were expensive compared to precious metals. So there were better things to be moving into towards the end of 2005 rather than most rare coins. A lot of major REG set collectors sold in 2004-2005 and those guys were hardly clueless that the tide was starting to turn. I would say REG set fever for the very best of sets didn't peak until 2007-early 2008 so that a set like Dr. Duckor's would have done better with that additional time. To those that waited just an additional few months late after July 2008 saw the last 3-4 years of appreciation gone in an instant. And it didn't help that the lower end stuff in holders was no longer marketable in their current grades. Not only did you get whacked with market liquidity drying up, but you got whacked with grade deflation as well if you had the wrong coins....a compressed version of 1981-1982. Better to get out too early than stay a few minutes past midnight at the party.
<< <i> Finally, from looking through the coins that people actually own, I stand by my statements. For once, let's see if your favorite dealer is as good at writing you a check as they are at depositing yours. >>
Lots of buyers and collectors simply don't know that selling coins is a completely different ball game than buying them. They might occassionally sell a coin or two to their dealer but it's not the same as selling them on the market.
Unless you have the truly rare old US coins you have little choice but to find the specialist dealer or "retail" them yourself on eBay.
Everyone is pretty good at cashing checks but tend to be much more conservative when writing them.
<< <i>Just so that we're clear, the OP is a little misleading as I didn't advocate a mass run for the exits. >>
Joe - as the OP, I take exception to that. What I said was exactly what was in the unsolicted letter you sent me. You said that you would post it so people could understand the context. You did not. You posted an extensively re-written version that toned down what was in the letter. Why don't you post the actual letter that you sent? I will scan it in later so people can judge for themselves.
<< <i>Just so that we're clear, the OP is a little misleading as I didn't advocate a mass run for the exits.
If you see yourself as mostly an "investor" in rare coins, you should be looking for an exit. If you are using coins as an inflation hedge, there are much better options. If you see yourself as a "collector" and you have plans to sell some or all of your coins in the next few years, I advise you to accelerate your sales plans in order to be finished by mid next year. You can read the article for my reasoning.
However, if you see yourself as a "collector" AND you have a long term view, then I am not suggesting that you should sell. In fact, I continue to be an aggressive buyer both for inventory and for clients. But, the only coins that I want to buy and hold are "Steve Duckor" coins, "saintguru" coins - coins that are important, rare, or incredible. The rest of the market is a solid sell. Guess what? Most collectors and nearly all "investors" own coins in that "rest of the market".
Regarding the Chinese argument, what is more likely, that I can sell them my energy, agriculture and metals or that you can sell them your PCGS Morgan Dollars?
Finally, from looking through the coins that people actually own, I stand by my statements. For once, let's see if your favorite dealer is as good at writing you a check as they are at depositing yours. >>
Maybe not Morgans but the WA SHE WONG AUCTION WAS SMOKIN !!
"Steve Duckor" coins, "saintguru" coins - coins that are important, rare, or incredible. The rest of the market is a solid sell. Guess what? Most collectors and nearly all "investors" own coins in that "rest of the market".
The coins you describe above are indeed rare.
But would you not agree that most collectors are hobbyists?
To suggest the balance of coins should be soon sold sounds like you speak as an investment advisor warning people they are going to lose money if they don't.
Therefore your recommendation does not take in account why coins were bought in in the first place.....to be enjoyed as a hobby.
I suggest most collectors don't care much what they get when they sell.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>However, if you see yourself as a "collector" AND you have a long term view, then I am not suggesting that you should sell. In fact, I continue to be an aggressive buyer both for inventory and for clients. But, the only coins that I want to buy and hold are "Steve Duckor" coins, "saintguru" coins - coins that are important, rare, or incredible. The rest of the market is a solid sell. Guess what? Most collectors and nearly all "investors" own coins in that "rest of the market". >>
Regardless to what extent I might agree or disagree, I have no qualms with your investment/collection advice, but will mention that you are suggesting that perhaps more than 99.99% of the market should sell.
<< <i>However, if you see yourself as a "collector" AND you have a long term view, then I am not suggesting that you should sell. In fact, I continue to be an aggressive buyer both for inventory and for clients. But, the only coins that I want to buy and hold are "Steve Duckor" coins, "saintguru" coins - coins that are important, rare, or incredible. The rest of the market is a solid sell. Guess what? Most collectors and nearly all "investors" own coins in that "rest of the market". >>
Regardless to what extent I might agree or disagree, I have no qualms with your investment/collection advice, but will mention that you are suggesting that perhaps more than 99.99% of the market should sell. >>
<< <i>Just so that we're clear, the OP is a little misleading as I didn't advocate a mass run for the exits. >>
Joe - as the OP, I take exception to that. What I said was exactly what was in the unsolicted letter you sent me. You said that you would post it so people could understand the context. You did not. You posted an extensively re-written version that toned down what was in the letter. Why don't you post the actual letter that you sent? I will scan it in later so people can judge for themselves. >>
<< <i>you are suggesting that perhaps more than 99.99% of the market should sell.
So, Joe, how was the OP "a little misleading"? Did he quote you accurately, or not?
<< <i>you are suggesting that perhaps more than 99.99% of the market should sell.
No, because self described investors and collectors getting ready to sell do not comprise 99.99% of the market. I am not advising long term collectors to significantly change their behavior in any way.
The fact is, most coin buyers that describe themselves as coin investors lose money in the coin market. The winners are almost always LONG TERM COLLECTORS. So, if you are not a long term collector, take this upturn in the market as your opportunity to exit. And by LONG TERM, I'm talking 10 years plus. >>
The part in bold might be what you intended to write, but is not what you wrote previously when you stated about long term collectors "the only coins that I want to buy and hold are "Steve Duckor" coins, "saintguru" coins - coins that are important, rare, or incredible". That statement was written specifically about collectors with a long term view. Obviously, 99.99% of the market does not own ""Steve Duckor" coins, "saintguru" coins - coins that are important, rare, or incredible", which is one reason why those coins are so important, rare or incredible. Again, I have no issue with your recommendations, but as previously and possibly erroneously stated your window of coins to buy and hold is almost nil.
Let me please just add that I think I know exactly what you mean and that my comments on what you wrote can be ping-ponged back and forth forever depending upon how badly one wants to parse the posts and/or prove a point. Suffice to say, I believe you have terrific insight and agree with quite a bit of what you have written even though the finer points of different comments might elicit varying responses from the two of us. In other words, I understand that these last two posts might be considered nitpicky and will stop this avenue of response.
I am sure you know some pure investors in rare coins, who may be short termers. I assume your comments are aimed at them.
However, all the high end collectors( perhaps partial investors) who have been in this hobby for decades, and have assembled fantastic sets, as a smal part of their total net worth, should read your comments carefully. For I feel that their efforts will be highly rewarded, when the time comes to sell. That could be tomorrow, or in 2015, or 2030.
And how are you able to form the opinion that mid-2011 will be a dumping ground so as to avoid Gov't reporting of rules yet to be enacted, and do not affect purchases made in 1999? or 2001, or 2004?
And if the prudent buyer has been putting large dollars in coins certified by PCGS, where will they lose money because of Coin Doctors? In 20 years, I have owned 2 coins that were probably altered with a substance, that changed in the holder. In both cases, the TPG( PCGS and NGC) fixed it, either by removing the substance, and/or paying the difference between the original and subsequent grade.
Since 2002, my retirement accounts are now even, after a 30% drop, twice in the intervening years. MY rare coins... I am happy to say are doing quite well.
joe, it would have been a little easier had you proclaimed your true genuis and said the sky is falling. oh wait, you did! only you know it all about coin invesotrs behavior.
bid/ask, you live in a dream world if you think the chinese will buy US. they do not do it in any field. why should they in coins?
<< <i>joe, it would have been a little easier had you proclaimed your true genuis and said the sky is falling. oh wait, you did! only you know it all about coin invesotrs behavior.
bid/ask, you live in a dream world if you think the chinese will buy US. they do not do it in any field. why should they in coins? >>
ask LS if there are overseas buyers of proof US and rare gold
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>joe, it would have been a little easier had you proclaimed your true genuis and said the sky is falling. oh wait, you did! only you know it all about coin invesotrs behavior.
bid/ask, you live in a dream world if you think the chinese will buy US. they do not do it in any field. why should they in coins? >>
ask LS if there are overseas buyers of proof US and rare gold >>
Over the decades I have heard of quite a few - none of which are Chinese. That doesn't mean that there won't be one or two, tho.
<< <i>joe, it would have been a little easier had you proclaimed your true genuis and said the sky is falling. oh wait, you did! only you know it all about coin invesotrs behavior.
bid/ask, you live in a dream world if you think the chinese will buy US. they do not do it in any field. why should they in coins? >>
What about Boeing 747's, Microsoft Windows, DKNY, Ralph Lauren, Coke, Pepsi, Taylormade & Callaway golf clubs, Nike, Robert Mondavi, etc
When you refer to "Chinese" you mean Chinese from China I presume? There are also tens of millions of ethnic Chinese living in Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, etc who are very pro America (& American made goods).
Comments
<< <i>I received an unsolicited mailer from O'connor Numismatics which strongly recommends selling rare coin now, based upon the premise that prices will fall over the next year or two.
For investors - "you should be selling into today's market".
For collectors - "If you are a collector, consider which coins you're most passionate about, that you still want to own long term, meaning 5 to 10 years plus. This is where you should focus your efforts, and for everything else, it's time to sell".
It struck me as very strongly worded collecting/investing advice. Did anyone else receive this, and if so what were your thoughts? >>
Far too many dealers try to play "investment advisors" when they have no training or certification to do so. The fact that they are
buying and selling what they are advising people to buy or sell certainly makes their motives suspect.
If you are buying coins, I sell quality coins at fair prices. If you are selling I will make a fair offer. That's worked for me for 19 years full time in coins.
<< <i>because I fear what I believe to be inevitable inflation, I'd rather have rare coins than cash
I argue that "rare coins as a hedge against inflation" hasn't worked for most coin buyers. >>
Rare coins did extremely well during the inflation of the 1970s. I would have done even better if I had held a little longer rather than selling out in September 1979.
<< <i>A well-written article but he does not understand the 1099-MISC law
Actually, I understand the requirements well. As it stands now, beginning Jan 1 2012, if I buy coins from you in amounts totaling more than $600 during a calendar year, I must file a form 1099 on these purchases. As a practical matter, in order to be sure whether or not your sales to me meet the $600 annual threshold, I will be collecting your tax information on every sale that you make to me, no matter how small. >>
If you want my SSN and personal info when i buy a $400 coin. I buy it from someone else not you.
Do this apply to all industries? For example, will McDonald's have to worry about tracking which customers spend more than $600 a year?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>As it stands now, beginning Jan 1 2012, if I buy coins from you in amounts totaling more than $600 during a calendar year, I must file a form 1099 on these purchases. As a practical matter, in order to be sure whether or not your sales to me meet the $600 annual threshold, I will be collecting your tax information on every sale that you make to me, no matter how small.
Do this apply to all industries? For example, will McDonald's have to worry about tracking which customers spend more than $600 a year? >>
They wont have to worry too long, as they will probably die off pretty quick---------BigE
<< <i>As it stands now, beginning Jan 1 2012, if I buy coins from you in amounts totaling more than $600 during a calendar year, I must file a form 1099 on these purchases. As a practical matter, in order to be sure whether or not your sales to me meet the $600 annual threshold, I will be collecting your tax information on every sale that you make to me, no matter how small.
Do this apply to all industries? For example, will McDonald's have to worry about tracking which customers spend more than $600 a year? >>
Once again, ( and I double checked today with the Dallas IRS office)
The only change in 1099 forms is that corporations make the same filings that
persons have had to do for some 30 years. And retail sales are not
included anyway. 1099 forms are for goods or services related to the
"back office" part of a business...not costs of inventory.
The copy machine, the lawn guy, advertising, rent, attorney, accountant,
fixed assets. And if you pay with a debit or credit card, you won't need to
file a 1099 in any case. Any business is foolish that doesn't already pay
for those business expenses with the many small business credit cards that
pay cash rebates.
Retail sales were never intended to be included. That's just hogwash from
the Cato Institute and talk radio, who pounce on any misrepresentation they
can make about the health care bill to make people hate it. Looks like some
of the jewelry and coin dealer trade groups, particularly Barry Stuppler (how many
times did his actions get the ANA sued?) fell for the right wing think tank's
analyses. The Cato Institute article actually concluded that instead of
trying to collect income that tax evaders don't pay, a better solution is
massive tax cuts, which would reduce the incentive to cheat!
The IRS is still working on implemention of this, and they legally cannot,
under the Paperwork Reduction Act, implement something that would cause
a deluge of paperwork. And they have the option of simply ignoring directives
in any bill that don't make sense from a cost effective standpoint.
The outcry over this has just gone way over rational discusssion. If anyone
has time to write letters to your lawmakers, there are many more issues of
concern: Chinese counterfeits on online auctions, tungsten center fake gold bars,
sales taxes on coins, unfair treatment of coins and bullion on capital gains taxes and
IRA inclusion, treating B&M coin shops in some cities under "pawn shop laws"
requiring 30 day holds before coins can be resold.
Are you referring to my one previous post in this thread, or are you responding to remarks that I have made about Joe’s coins in my columns or articles? For the moment, I will assume that you are focusing only upon my previous post in this thread. The main point of that post was not to analyze Joe’s prices, but rather to focus on the quality and importance of many of the coins that he offers. I was hoping that others would comment on specific prices, especially the forum members who were critical of Joe’s prices in their own respective posts. Those who publicly make negative claims about a dealer, in a way that is plausibly harmful to his livelihood, should be prepared to substantiate those claims with facts and/or logical arguments. It is their comments that are misleading, simplistic and unfair to O’Connor.
Nebuchadnezzar << To compare those values to the quote prices on several of the pieces is really discouraging from such a prolific writer as yourself.>>
It did not occur to me that anyone would assume that I had analyzed the prices of all the halves that I listed in one post in a thread. Like redbook prices and greysheet prices, PCGS prices have standing and a large following. Even when not supported by evidence, certain guide prices are important in that at least some buyers will rely upon them when making decisions. Even when you think that a PCGS price guide is value is wrong, others will think that it is correct, and some of these others will buy rare coins.
Nebuchadnezzar << You should realize how high the PCGS price guide figures are on such coins.>>
How do you suggest that I make this determination? There cannot exist a price guide that is accurate in regard to all rare U.S. coins. Why are you so sure that the PCGS price guide values are ‘too high’ for “such coins”? Are you implicitly referring to auction prices?
In some instances, auction results are retail prices, especially when the buyers are collectors. In other instances, auction results are wholesale prices, and such coins are later sold to collectors for 3% to 50% above the respective auction results. In the rare coin business, it is typical for a dealer to buy a coin at auction for his inventory and then later sell it for much more than he paid for it.
<< As a former journalist, I realize that facts are supposed to be reported, not opined on as an editorial writer should ... >>
There is no one source, or combination of bits of such information, that conclusively demonstrates the market price of a specific rare coin. Every coin is different. Even two coins of the same date and type that have received the same PCGS grade may have very different market values. In my post above, I pointed out that many of the coins, which O’Connor has sold or is offering, are truly special and I implied that these are often worth a premium over other coins of the same date, type and PCGS certified grade. I did not draw a conclusion about the specific value of any one of the coins that Joe is offering. I am puzzled by your criticism of my post.
The Widening Gap between Prices of High End and Low End Certified coins of the same date, type and numerical grade
Coins in Jay Brahin’s and Dr. Duckor’s collections tended to bring much more at auction than corresponding values in price guides:
Jay Brahin’s View on mid range to high end coins may be relevant to a discussion of Joe’s prices
All-Time Greatest Collection of Barber Half Dollars, Part 2
All-Time Greatest Collection of Barber Half Dollars, Part 1 – 08/03/10
I believe there was a period of time our coinage was sought by the Japanese.
Having said that they will most likely seek out their own country's coinage first.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
-Define what is rare
-how many collectors are chasing the coin or series
-factor in the promotional component
-factor in the collector element in terms of the following:
1. quality for the grade
2. how often the coin surfaces for sale
Then, draw your own conclusions on a coin by coin basis and AVOID the general discussion
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>What has not been discussed is the distinct possibility of US coins being sought by foreigners over the coming years as collectors from other nations prosper......that will bring new demand to our coins. I am thinking of Chinese collectors.
I believe there was a period of time our coinage was sought by the Japanese.
Having said that they will most likely seek out their own country's coinage first. >>
Bidask, hopefully these foreigners won't be looking for 1909 $10 in PR65!
Who is John Galt?
Joe might have been a year early but in general real estate and many other hard assets essentially peaked in the 2004-2007 range. There wasn't really a large increase in overall prices in the coin market from 2005 to 2007. Housing prices in my area reached 95-98% of their peak in 2004-2005. It was clear to me that even in 2004 rare coin prices and homes were expensive compared to precious metals. So there were better things to be moving into towards the end of 2005 rather than most rare coins. A lot of major REG set collectors sold in 2004-2005 and those guys were hardly clueless that the tide was starting to turn. I would say REG set fever for the very best of sets didn't peak until 2007-early 2008 so that a set like Dr. Duckor's would have done better with that additional time. To those that waited just an additional few months late after July 2008 saw the last 3-4 years of appreciation gone in an instant. And it didn't help that the lower end stuff in holders was no longer marketable in their current grades. Not only did you get whacked with market liquidity drying up, but you got whacked with grade deflation as well if you had the wrong coins....a compressed version of 1981-1982. Better to get out too early than stay a few minutes past midnight at the party.
roadrunner
<< <i>
Finally, from looking through the coins that people actually own, I stand by my statements. For once, let's see if your favorite dealer is as good at writing you a check as they are at depositing yours. >>
Lots of buyers and collectors simply don't know that selling coins is a completely
different ball game than buying them. They might occassionally sell a coin or two
to their dealer but it's not the same as selling them on the market.
Unless you have the truly rare old US coins you have little choice but to find the
specialist dealer or "retail" them yourself on eBay.
Everyone is pretty good at cashing checks but tend to be much more conservative
when writing them.
merse
<< <i>Just so that we're clear, the OP is a little misleading as I didn't advocate a mass run for the exits. >>
Joe - as the OP, I take exception to that. What I said was exactly what was in the unsolicted letter you sent me. You said that you would post it so people could understand the context. You did not. You posted an extensively re-written version that toned down what was in the letter. Why don't you post the actual letter that you sent? I will scan it in later so people can judge for themselves.
merse
<< <i>Just so that we're clear, the OP is a little misleading as I didn't advocate a mass run for the exits.
If you see yourself as mostly an "investor" in rare coins, you should be looking for an exit. If you are using coins as an inflation hedge, there are much better options. If you see yourself as a "collector" and you have plans to sell some or all of your coins in the next few years, I advise you to accelerate your sales plans in order to be finished by mid next year. You can read the article for my reasoning.
However, if you see yourself as a "collector" AND you have a long term view, then I am not suggesting that you should sell. In fact, I continue to be an aggressive buyer both for inventory and for clients. But, the only coins that I want to buy and hold are "Steve Duckor" coins, "saintguru" coins - coins that are important, rare, or incredible. The rest of the market is a solid sell. Guess what? Most collectors and nearly all "investors" own coins in that "rest of the market".
Regarding the Chinese argument, what is more likely, that I can sell them my energy, agriculture and metals or that you can sell them your PCGS Morgan Dollars?
Finally, from looking through the coins that people actually own, I stand by my statements. For once, let's see if your favorite dealer is as good at writing you a check as they are at depositing yours. >>
Maybe not Morgans but the WA SHE WONG AUCTION WAS SMOKIN !!
See this thread
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I still think the Chinese could become buyers of rare US coins, maybe. >>
Anything is possible.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>
<< <i>I still think the Chinese could become buyers of rare US coins, maybe. >>
Anything is possible. >>
Indeed, they did buy U.S. T-Bonds, after all!
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
"Steve Duckor" coins, "saintguru" coins - coins that are important, rare, or incredible. The rest of the market is a solid sell. Guess what? Most collectors and nearly all "investors" own coins in that "rest of the market".
The coins you describe above are indeed rare.
But would you not agree that most collectors are hobbyists?
To suggest the balance of coins should be soon sold sounds like you speak as an investment advisor warning people they are going to lose money if they don't.
Therefore your recommendation does not take in account why coins were bought in in the first place.....to be enjoyed as a hobby.
I suggest most collectors don't care much what they get when they sell.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>However, if you see yourself as a "collector" AND you have a long term view, then I am not suggesting that you should sell. In fact, I continue to be an aggressive buyer both for inventory and for clients. But, the only coins that I want to buy and hold are "Steve Duckor" coins, "saintguru" coins - coins that are important, rare, or incredible. The rest of the market is a solid sell. Guess what? Most collectors and nearly all "investors" own coins in that "rest of the market". >>
Regardless to what extent I might agree or disagree, I have no qualms with your investment/collection advice, but will mention that you are suggesting that perhaps more than 99.99% of the market should sell.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
<< <i>
<< <i>However, if you see yourself as a "collector" AND you have a long term view, then I am not suggesting that you should sell. In fact, I continue to be an aggressive buyer both for inventory and for clients. But, the only coins that I want to buy and hold are "Steve Duckor" coins, "saintguru" coins - coins that are important, rare, or incredible. The rest of the market is a solid sell. Guess what? Most collectors and nearly all "investors" own coins in that "rest of the market". >>
Regardless to what extent I might agree or disagree, I have no qualms with your investment/collection advice, but will mention that you are suggesting that perhaps more than 99.99% of the market should sell. >>
Talk about a self fulfilling prophesy moment!
<< <i>
<< <i>Just so that we're clear, the OP is a little misleading as I didn't advocate a mass run for the exits. >>
Joe - as the OP, I take exception to that. What I said was exactly what was in the unsolicted letter you sent me. You said that you would post it so people could understand the context. You did not. You posted an extensively re-written version that toned down what was in the letter. Why don't you post the actual letter that you sent? I will scan it in later so people can judge for themselves. >>
<< <i>you are suggesting that perhaps more than 99.99% of the market should sell.
So, Joe, how was the OP "a little misleading"? Did he quote you accurately, or not?
<< <i>you are suggesting that perhaps more than 99.99% of the market should sell.
No, because self described investors and collectors getting ready to sell do not comprise 99.99% of the market. I am not advising long term collectors to significantly change their behavior in any way.
The fact is, most coin buyers that describe themselves as coin investors lose money in the coin market. The winners are almost always LONG TERM COLLECTORS. So, if you are not a long term collector, take this upturn in the market as your opportunity to exit. And by LONG TERM, I'm talking 10 years plus. >>
The part in bold might be what you intended to write, but is not what you wrote previously when you stated about long term collectors "the only coins that I want to buy and hold are "Steve Duckor" coins, "saintguru" coins - coins that are important, rare, or incredible". That statement was written specifically about collectors with a long term view. Obviously, 99.99% of the market does not own ""Steve Duckor" coins, "saintguru" coins - coins that are important, rare, or incredible", which is one reason why those coins are so important, rare or incredible. Again, I have no issue with your recommendations, but as previously and possibly erroneously stated your window of coins to buy and hold is almost nil.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
I am sure you know some pure investors in rare coins, who may be short termers. I assume your comments are aimed at them.
However, all the high end collectors( perhaps partial investors) who have been in this hobby for decades, and have assembled fantastic sets, as a smal part of their total net worth, should read your comments carefully. For I feel that their efforts will be highly rewarded, when the time comes to sell. That could be tomorrow, or in 2015, or 2030.
And how are you able to form the opinion that mid-2011 will be a dumping ground so as to avoid Gov't reporting of rules yet to be enacted, and do not affect purchases made in 1999? or 2001, or 2004?
And if the prudent buyer has been putting large dollars in coins certified by PCGS, where will they lose money because of Coin Doctors? In 20 years, I have owned 2 coins that were probably altered with a substance, that changed in the holder. In both cases, the TPG( PCGS and NGC) fixed it, either by removing the substance, and/or paying the difference between the original and subsequent grade.
Since 2002, my retirement accounts are now even, after a 30% drop, twice in the intervening years. MY rare coins... I am happy to say are doing quite well.
bid/ask, you live in a dream world if you think the chinese will buy US. they do not do it in any field. why should they in coins?
<< <i>joe, it would have been a little easier had you proclaimed your true genuis and said the sky is falling. oh wait, you did! only you know it all about coin invesotrs behavior.
bid/ask, you live in a dream world if you think the chinese will buy US. they do not do it in any field. why should they in coins? >>
ask LS if there are overseas buyers of proof US and rare gold
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i>joe, it would have been a little easier had you proclaimed your true genuis and said the sky is falling. oh wait, you did! only you know it all about coin invesotrs behavior.
bid/ask, you live in a dream world if you think the chinese will buy US. they do not do it in any field. why should they in coins? >>
ask LS if there are overseas buyers of proof US and rare gold >>
Over the decades I have heard of quite a few - none of which are Chinese. That doesn't mean that there won't be one or two, tho.
<< <i>joe, it would have been a little easier had you proclaimed your true genuis and said the sky is falling. oh wait, you did! only you know it all about coin invesotrs behavior.
bid/ask, you live in a dream world if you think the chinese will buy US. they do not do it in any field. why should they in coins? >>
What about Boeing 747's, Microsoft Windows, DKNY, Ralph Lauren, Coke, Pepsi, Taylormade & Callaway golf clubs, Nike, Robert Mondavi, etc
When you refer to "Chinese" you mean Chinese from China I presume? There are also tens of millions of ethnic Chinese living in Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, etc who are very pro America (& American made goods).