<< <i>Regarding my prices, I do focus on fairly expensive coins, but my typical 3-5% margins are some of the lowest in the business.
I have not looked at Joe's coins, but I've heard many a dealer claim this, then find some of their coins purchased at a Heritage auction and marked up 50%. >>
When people are tying up their money at 2% for 10 years its a sign that there aren't too many good investments left out there. Gold and silver seem to be topping out, stocks are iffy and who wants real estate right now. Coins have been good to me, hard to turn them into cash right now because cash is sure to be a horrible investment too!-----------BigE
<< <i>...Regarding my prices, I do focus on fairly expensive coins, but my typical 3-5% margins are some of the lowest in the business.. >>
Joe, I had no idea you were such a nice guy. So "typically", if you buy a coin for $10,000, you offer it for sale at between $10,300 and $10,500?. And not just in cases when you buy a coin for a client as an agent? >>
I am greedy, when i lay out 10k i expect a return netting 1000's or i pass. ( i guess that is why i do not sell coins, i am not going to tie up 10k for the chance to make a few days of lunch money)
Mark NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!! working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
I'm looking forward to reading Joe's expanded version when it becomes available, out of curiosity to see what is motivating him in the way of current market conditions to take this stance. I don't think he is alone in this viewpoint, but I suspect it is somewhat more complicated and selective that the blanket statement made by the OP that "O'connor Numismatics recommends selling rare coins."
BTW, if you are interested in margins or fair prices being charged by Joe or any other dealer, things have become fairly transparent and it's not difficult to find out what the markup is on a lot of material in a dealer's inventory. Great coin and example is the '72-S Half currently offered.
And a Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, to you and yours...
<< <i>I received an unsolicited mailer from O'connor Numismatics which strongly recommends...
For investors - "you should be selling into today's market".
For collectors - "If you are a collector, consider which coins you're most passionate about, that you still want to own long term, meaning 5 to 10 years plus. This is where you should focus your efforts, and for everything else, it's time to sell". >>
As a pure collector I don't care if they are right or wrong. I buy coins because I want them for my collection and/or just plain enjoy them.
I don't buy for investment. Who can predict the coin investment market anyway? >>
I did; 60 years ago and was pretty good at it. Since I was too young to have the money to take advantage of my predictions, I told my parents what to buy.
After a year or two of watching my recommended buys rise in price considerably, they finally believed in me. For instance, they started buying 1931-S Lincolns for $6.00 or $7.00 each instead of the $0.75 Red Book price when I first mentioned them and ended up with 188 of them in fine or better, 16 I believe in BU. They had spent $2000 for them and sold them a few years later for $8,000.
When the DDO 1955s started hitting the market, they bought several for $65.00 each on my advice but sold them too soon for $200 each. All were BU.
After that, they didn't need my advice and my mom, especially, became a part time dealer, doing quite well.
I don't try to predict the future any more. Like you, I buy what I like and enjoy my collections.
JT
It is health that is real wealth, not pieces of gold and silver. Gandhi.
I collect all 20th century series except gold including those series that ended there.
<< <i> Do your own thinking and look at the market on your own as it pertains to your coins whether they are for investment or pleasure. Don't bank on someone else's view of the market. >>
There is simply no alternative to doing your own thinking. Even if you can afford expensive advice or listen to financial advice on a chat board you will most prob- ably lose in the long run if you let others make the decisions.
Learn about what you invest in as well as the nature of the specific instrument. If you don't understand both of these then don't buy. Just spread your money a- round a little and be sure to have something that will go up no matter what hap- pens and something else that will perform well under the conditions you personally believe is most likely.
Anyone buying coins just for profit should have unloaded by the autumn of 2008.
If the metals break it will be too late to sell. If they don't then it's anybody's guess how coins will perform. There could be a great deal of upside left in some coins. Long term trends are about to turn against some segments but collectors don't need to worry about such things like investors do. Long term trends also tend to play out in the longer term so any concern is not immediate.
Enjoy the hobby. Most people will enjoy it more if their neck isn't extended further than a thanksgiving turkey on Wednesday.
Hands remain strong, in this environment. People want rare, so I'd concur that it's a good time to sell them ... just don't expect to buy them back at a lower price, later.
<< <i>My view on coins is much like my view on Vegas. Whether I win or lose there is entertainment value that I factor into the equation. At The Hard Rock I might put xxx,xxx into play during the course of the evening and if I break even I actually feel like I won because I had a blast doing it. The price for entertainment. If i lose 20% of my stake I was still entertained. I look at coins much the same way. Even if in the end if I lose 20% or so I had had a blast during it and I LOVE it. The fun factor and the cost of being in the game. Coin collecting is a hobby to much of us whether it's at $100 or $25,000 a clip and each of us had a threshold or entertainment budget.
I do not confuse coin collecting with investing. There are not even on the same spreadsheet at MJ World Headquarter's. Joe's comments maybe right for the "coin investor". However, I think the Fed's push towards getting folks involved riskier investments aka stock market, real estate is pure folly at this point in time. I'm actually taking some of my people to underweight in the market for the time being. They have enjoyed a nice run. Of course the million dollar question is, "where to park the money?" The Fed wants it in the stock market and that's what keeps me up some nights. JMHO.
MJ >>
I would much rather lose 20% of XX in Vegas or at the local casino's we now have all over western PA than on a coin! I think the entertainment value playing craps and losing is greater than losing money on a coin. Happy Thanksgiving all.
The coin market is dead. Just ask your local B&M when was the last time he sold a collector coin. Its all about bullion now. Check realized prices on Ebay for true auctions. Quite frankly, im surprised prices for collector coins are still as high as they are.
<< <i>The coin market is dead. Just ask your local B&M when was the last time he sold a collector coin. Its all about bullion now. Check realized prices on Ebay for true auctions. Quite frankly, im surprised prices for collector coins are still as high as they are. >>
I've never seen my B & M sell anything besides bullion and cheaper Morgans. I've never seen any B & M sell Joe O' Connor type of coins. I've never bought a coin on Ebay so I don't have a comment on that
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Honestly - to have lost money the past decade would take a lot of bad luck or poor decision making - or both.
All one needed to do to lose money in coins was to buy most of your stuff around 2004-2005 or later. And if you bought 90% of what was being offered by the typical retailer, you are probably underwater at present.
I do not believe that coins are or ever should be viewed as an investment... Thank you SeaEagle Coins. Couldn't have said it better myself.
Numismatics is thinly traded, and unlike the securities market, the commission on a numismatic coin you buy can be anywhere from 10% to whatever the particular dealer thinks he can get away with. Well publicized auctions can provide some stability here. You buy a coin, you pay a commission. You sell / trade / upgrade a coin, you pay a commission, though if you're lucky the coin you're trading may have appreciated in the interim.
Look at the bid / ask on the 10 shares of the ETF, SPY. Then look at the bid / ask spread on, say an 1892 P Dime in MS 66.
TDN - It is very easy to lose money in the rare coin market. 1) You can overpay for a coin (I won't even look at some dealer cases at shows or their offerings online for this reason) 2) If you bought an 1883 N/C Nickel in MS 66, a Trime in MS 65, a type Barber or Seated Dime in MS 65, a type I 1917 P SLQ in FH 5 ten years ago, you're underwater on the coin. 3) A lot depends when you bought the particular coin. Look at the Amon Carter $. If you bought almost any Liberty Nickel in MS 66 between two and five years ago, you're underwater on the coin.
Some of my type coins have appreciated nicely, such as an IHC in 5 RD, a Classic Half Cent in 5 RB, a Capped Bust Quarter in MS 64, and an 1888 Seated Half in MS 66. However, most of the coins I bought five years ago if I'm lucky, are worth what I paid for them. I bought a nice 1807 Dime in MS 63 that I don't think I could get what I paid for it six years ago.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
If you bought an 1883 N/C Nickel in MS 66, a Trime in MS 65, a type Barber or Seated Dime in MS 65, a type I 1917 P SLQ in FH 5 ten years ago, you're underwater on the coin.
I can only state based on my perception of whats happening here locally at my B & M store.
Collector coins are extremely soft. I dont deal in High end ones becuase they would not sell locally anyway. But coins priced between 50-500 are difficult to sell to the general public in the current market. Also, I dont carry junk in the shop trays, they are all nicer for the grade and priced right. Ocassionally I sell a few morgan $ in the 30-40 range, a few proof sets mainly as gifts, and once in a blue moon a nice type coin. Right now its all bullion driven , People are buying 90%, .999 silver, gold bullion and coins, as well as bulk silver $, Silver eagles are on fire as well here lately.
I am actually buying collections from collectors that were buying collector coins in the past at a rate of at least 25 to 1. (25 people selling for everyone buying and its getting more that way each day. Many folks arestill feeling the pinch and have not recovered from the downturn last year.
However, at local shows in this area there are a few buyers of collector material based on reports from other dealers I know that do more regional type show activity.
<< <i>The coin market is dead. Just ask your local B&M when was the last time he sold a collector coin. Its all about bullion now. Check realized prices on Ebay for true auctions. Quite frankly, im surprised prices for collector coins are still as high as they are. >>
The middle market coin market, as is the case with any collecting market now, is in the doldrums. Really great is selling, and really cheap is selling, everything else is not.
I would hope that my coins would hold much of their value, but I'm here to have fun!
All one needed to do to lose money in coins was to buy most of your stuff around 2004-2005 or later. And if you bought 90% of what was being offered by the typical retailer, you are probably underwater at present.
True enough. Of course, it's almost always a bad idea to buy whatever it is that most retailers are pushing.
I do not believe that coins are or ever should be viewed as an investment.
I think that an expert (or a non-expert that truly has an expert on his side) can treat coins as an investment and have success with it. But at least 90% of the coin investors in this world are not up to the challenge, and should probably be doing things very differently.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>The coin market is dead. Just ask your local B&M when was the last time he sold a collector coin. Its all about bullion now. Check realized prices on Ebay for true auctions. Quite frankly, im surprised prices for collector coins are still as high as they are. >>
Doesnt seem that way from Heritage auctions. Prices might be a little lower, but people are still active in buying.
All coins kept in bank vaults. PCGS Registries Box of 20 SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
We're not seeing very many collector rarities simply because everyone who has them wants to keep them. Would you sell your very best, nicest coin? Or, are you going to sell the cheaper ones to try to get another one as good as your best?
Improperly Cleaned, Our passion for numismatics is Genuine! Now featuring correct spelling.
Interesting thread, and lots of interesting opinions I need to look for Joe's full article, and see what his rationale is that supports his thinking. As for the current market - well there are apparently a lot of diverging observations. Better date Barber halves in circ grades are still strong. Check out Manorcourt's Ebay listings if you want to see a strong market area in action. An R3 date (not super tough) in VF35 brought well over MS60 Bid money about a week ago. Or check out early copper in decent condition anywhere - there are few bargains. John Adams wrote an article about the outrageously high prices and loose grading of large cents (particularly 1794's), and that it was going to kill the market for future collectors. I believe that article was written in 1973.....
Wow! That was an outstanding article. Well-thought, well-written, with elements ranging from Steve Martin to dandelions in the spring. I am going to go read it again.
f you bought an 1883 N/C Nickel in MS 66, a Trime in MS 65, a type Barber or Seated Dime in MS 65, a type I 1917 P SLQ in FH 5 ten years ago, you're underwater on the coin....... Only if the grade has remained the same
Much more likely than an upgrade is that the coin is now considered a grade lower....and If you hold such coins, not only are you underwater, but you've probably drowned as well. Remember that for every successful upgrade than was made, 90-95% of those coins are now the low end coins that are selling for distressed prices. What goes around comes around. This is not much different than bankers making profits on selling securitized mortgages rated AAA, and now leaving the current owners holding the bag.
We're not seeing very many collector rarities simply because everyone who has them wants to keep them. Would you sell your very best, nicest coin? Or, are you going to sell the cheaper ones to try to get another one as good as your best?
I've seen any number of top collectors who sold their very best coins in the 2004-2008 period to take advantage of rising market prices and get into something "safer" or less promoted. Oreville discussed here at length about moving out of his unique 1875-s $20 in MS67 and getting into a pile of generic slabbed mint state $20's and $10's.
In reading the O'Connor article I don't find anything there that I could really argue against. He's not calling for an immediate fall in the market. Besides the Jan 2012 issue of 1099's we also have 6,12,24,30,60,120 yr cycles all bottoming in the 2012-2014 period (ie cyclically similar to 1892-1894). If any numismatists currently alive were around back in 1892-1894 they can tell us how things went.
<< <i>Joe O'Conner is a good guy but he isn't good writier meaning, restating the news like an old CNN report isn't what I want from him. I love his coins and wish i could buy them, I mean his archives is incredible, I mean have you ever visited his site, it is like a who's who of ex Eliasberg and Stack my two personal favorites. But what is going in the numisamtic industry, what has every dealer drank int he past 12 months that they feel the need to become armchair writers, economists, fortune tellers and/or just plain ole the New Yorker mag writers....I mean what happened to just being a great ole dealer like Chapman, Meihl and Kosoff? >>
Everyone is entitiled to an opinion but I agree with you.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
But what is going in the numisamtic industry, what has every dealer drank int he past 12 months that they feel the need to become armchair writers, economists, fortune tellers and/or just plain ole the New Yorker mag writers....
This from a man with over 8000 posts?
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I suspect attempting to call the top and even a bottom in the coin market can be similar to looking at a broken clock- the time will be right twice a day and the coin market has so many components that they rarely move in the same direction all the time. The coin market may have tired or over extended sectors, but it seems there there are other sectors that are just ripe to be promoted
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I tend to agree with many aspects of Joe's article.
What is happening is that the hobby is actually expanding in supply and yet the demand is not growing at the same rate, hence the market demand is getting "thinner" in relation to the supply.
Why?
I will list some of the reasons:
(1) The "Canadiazation" of the US coin hobby. The US Mint has been pumping out too much in new coin products since 1986. True, it has pumped up demand but the hangover supply is overwhelming the coin market. The Canada coin market has suffered since the late 1970 when the Royal Canada Mint (RCM) started to pummel the Canada coin market with a bewildering array of new products.
(2) The increasing array of new collectibles withing the coin hobby/market. Examples are the collecting of the plastic slabs themselves such as the black NGC slab, the PCGS doily slab, the GSA silver dollar mailing boxes (without regard to what is inside them!)
(3) The passage of time in which we have yet another year and in a month YET ANOTHER YEAR (!)of coins available to collect, which also increases supply. The demand is not increasing in proportion.
(4) The increasing array of PCGS and NGC types of grading. The first strike, the plus grades, etc., etc.
<< <i>We're not seeing very many collector rarities simply because everyone who has them wants to keep them. Would you sell your very best, nicest coin? Or, are you going to sell the cheaper ones to try to get another one as good as your best? >>
That's what the auction houses want you to do! Sell your best that is. I also heard something like; "I'm selling my key coins before they go bust". I don't remember which topic this was on, maybe this one. I thought the same thing. I collect coins and will hang onto my collections til I die and have spelled out the value of each coin and series of coins for my daughters to use. This was done from MY COLLECTION at Heritage by printing off every page. I even spelled out in my will a fair and equitable way to divide them up so they come out even if they want to use it. And they know the prices are wholesale.
JT
It is health that is real wealth, not pieces of gold and silver. Gandhi.
I collect all 20th century series except gold including those series that ended there.
RealOne <<Joe O'Conner is a good guy but he isn't good writer meaning, restating the news like an old CNN report isn't what I want from him. I love his coins and wish I could buy them, I mean his archives [are] incredible, I mean have you ever visited his site, it is like a who's who of [formerly] Eliasberg and [James A.] Stack [collection coins, which are] my two personal favorites.>>
Indeed, Joe’s archives are incredible. At the 2009 [not 2010] CoinFest, O’Connor had some of the archived quarters and halves, on loan from collectors, on display; these coins are spectacular. Also, as I said in a past column, he had some terrific coins in Boston at the ANA Convention:
DaveE <<I do not believe in what [O’Connor] promotes or how he promotes.>>
This is the oddest statement in this thread. In my view, many of the coins that Joe sells are tremendous. How could a true numismatist possibly criticize most of the coins that he sells? While I understand how some of his prices might require explanation, I would be surprised if an expert questioned the quality of most of the coins that he sells or their numismatic importance.
--
Pricing:
BidAsk <<You would never know [that Joe is bearish] by the asking prices in his inventory.>>
ChrisRx <<Bada-bing!>>
JSsson<<Those asking prices border on larceny. …>>
Consider the Eliasberg 1830 Capped Bust Half Dollar (O-101), now PCGS graded MS-65+ -- The pedigree for this coin is listed on Joe’s website, as follows:
* George Howard Earle, Jr. (Henry Chapman 6/1912) * John H. Clapp (Morton and J.B. Stack private sale, 1942) * Louis E. Eliasberg, Sr (Bowers and Merena 4/1997: lot 1859 @ $22,000 as "MS-66") * Phil Kaufman * (Heritage CSNS "Joseph C. Thomas Collection", 4/2009: lot 2444 @ $21,850 as NGC MS67)
Now, O’Connor is asking $14,500, even though this same coin realized more in April 2009, when rare coin markets were bottoming out. Furthermore, it sold for $22,000 in 1997! (Who had it downgraded?) Besides, note the incomparable pedigree!
As O’Connor is currently offering more half dollars than coins of any other denomination, let us consider the prices for these, which I have taken from Joe’s website. I added a few comments, in brackets.
1795 Flowing Hair 50c, AU55 (PCGS) ~ O.105a, Even light to medium gray 24,500 [The PCGS price guide value is $23,000, for the least rare variety. -Analyst]
1797 Draped Bust 50c, XF40 (PCGS) ~ O.101, Key Small Eagle Type 125,000 [This is markedly higher than the PCGS guide value, but I have seen some moderately cleaned and/or moderately dipped coins of this key type that have been certified as grading EF-40 or higher. – Analyst]
1801 Draped Bust 50c, XF40 (PCGS) ~ O.101, Ex Pryor 9,750 [This is not cheap, but this coin really needs to be seen to be appreciated. –Analyst]
1802 Draped Bust 50c, AU55 (PCGS) - PCGS "Green Tag" 29,500 [Joe’s price is markedly lower than the PCGS price guide value of $32,500! The images, though, lead me to wonder if this coin is as impressive as most of Joe’s other coins. – Analyst]
1856-O Liberty Seated 50c, MS65 (PCGS/CAC) - Scarce Gem No Motto 6,500 [The PCGS price guide value is $7500. – Analyst]
1859-O Liberty Seated 50c, MS66 (PCGS/CAC) - Gem "No Motto" 17,500 [The PCGS price guide value is $20,000. – Analyst]
1872-S Liberty Seated 50c, MS65 (PCGS/CAC) - Rare Gem, Eliasberg 22,500 [The PCGS price guide value is $21,000. The Eliasberg pedigree and this coin’s placement in the condition census are important factors. – Analyst]
As for why many of O’Connor’s coins are truly worth premiums, some very much related points can be found in my articles, including the following: (In fact, Joe is quoted in two of them.)
A well-written article but he does not understand the 1099-MISC law. It would be up to the collector to report the income paid to the dealer over $600 per year. It is not the dealer’s responsibility to report income received only payments paid to collectors over $600 per year.
That being said this is ONLY one dealer’s opinion.
<< <i>but we collectors (unlike you dealers) get emotionally attached to our coins (well all of us except for Oreville that is, but he doesn't count since he is a CPA who is therefore without emotion....... >>
Hey!
I do NOT resemble that remark!
I sell only ONE of my best coins and even then I made sure it was mostly a like exchange in which I ended up with numerous patterns, Cal gold fractionals, US coins, etc., etc. in addition to the small amount of "boot" and all of a sudden I am without emotion?
Hardly! I agonized long and hard and finally succumbed only because I saw the opportunity to parlay ONE great coin I had into multiples of different great and even rarer pieces of numismatic wonder that I could no longer resist. At the same time, as a collector, I began to worry about this one coin I had that became the tail that wagged the dog concept in my coin collection. In addition, I wanted to be a little more diversified with more $20 gold coins in my collection and finally succumbed to making that deal.
This came after a period of over 15 years in which I did not sell or trade a single coin!
<< <i>As a practical matter, in order to be sure whether or not your sales to me meet the $600 annual threshold, I will be collecting your tax information on every sale that you make to me, no matter how small..... >>
Technically, under the new law, the dealer will not have to issue 1099's to collectors but herein lies the problem; how can the dealer be sure that whom he is buying from is purely a collector?
This is why we are advising our clients to issue 1099's to EVERYONE just to be "on the safe side." This is what is getting everyone crazy.
It is unfortunate as one small mistake in erroneously not issuing a 1099 to a seller who is thought to be a collector can cost the dealer many thousands of dollars in penalties/loss of deduction.
So Joe understands the 1099-MISC law from a practical sense to absolutely avoid penalties.
An investor will generally sell their coins if they knew it was going to decline 20% in value over the next two years. A collector will generally not sell their favored coins if they knew it was going to decline 20% in value over the next two years.
Also, I notice that investors check the values of each of their coins at least weekly. Collectors do not check the values of their coins as often.
Analyst, Upon reading your commentaries on Joe's coins, I find it incredibly misleading. You should realize how high the PCGS price guide figures are on such coins. To compare those values to the quote prices on several of the pieces is really discouraging from such a prolific writer as yourself. As a former journalist, I realize that facts are supposed to be reported, not opined on as an editorial writer should... Just a quick thought...
I thought the article was thoughtfully written; however, because I fear what I believe to be inevitable inflation, I'd rather have rare coins than cash.
Comments
<< <i>Regarding my prices, I do focus on fairly expensive coins, but my typical 3-5% margins are some of the lowest in the business.
I have not looked at Joe's coins, but I've heard many a dealer claim this, then find some of their coins purchased at a Heritage auction and marked up 50%. >>
Surely, you jest!
Why, that would be shocking, I tell you!!!!
<< <i>
<< <i>...Regarding my prices, I do focus on fairly expensive coins, but my typical 3-5% margins are some of the lowest in the business.. >>
Joe, I had no idea you were such a nice guy. So "typically", if you buy a coin for $10,000, you offer it for sale at between $10,300 and $10,500?. And not just in cases when you buy a coin for a client as an agent? >>
I am greedy, when i lay out 10k i expect a return netting 1000's or i pass. ( i guess that is why i do not sell coins, i am not going to tie up 10k for the chance to make a few days of lunch money)
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
<< <i>Most collectors have lost money on coins the past decade? Wow - they've been buying from the wrong dealer.
Honestly - to have lost money the past decade would take a lot of bad luck or poor decision making - or both. >>
Tom
BTW, if you are interested in margins or fair prices being charged by Joe or any other dealer, things have become fairly transparent and it's not difficult to find out what the markup is on a lot of material in a dealer's inventory. Great coin and example is the '72-S Half currently offered.
And a Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, to you and yours...
John
<< <i>
<< <i>I received an unsolicited mailer from O'connor Numismatics which strongly recommends...
For investors - "you should be selling into today's market".
For collectors - "If you are a collector, consider which coins you're most passionate about, that you still want to own long term, meaning 5 to 10 years plus. This is where you should focus your efforts, and for everything else, it's time to sell". >>
As a pure collector I don't care if they are right or wrong. I buy coins because I want them for my collection and/or just plain enjoy them.
I don't buy for investment. Who can predict the coin investment market anyway? >>
I did; 60 years ago and was pretty good at it.
Since I was too young to have the money to take advantage of my predictions, I told my parents what to buy.
After a year or two of watching my recommended buys rise in price considerably, they finally believed in me.
For instance, they started buying 1931-S Lincolns for $6.00 or $7.00 each instead of the $0.75 Red Book price when I first mentioned them and
ended up with 188 of them in fine or better, 16 I believe in BU. They had spent $2000 for them and sold them a few years later for $8,000.
When the DDO 1955s started hitting the market, they bought several for $65.00 each on my advice but sold them too soon for $200 each. All were BU.
After that, they didn't need my advice and my mom, especially, became a part time dealer, doing quite well.
I don't try to predict the future any more. Like you, I buy what I like and enjoy my collections.
JT
I collect all 20th century series except gold including those series that ended there.
<< <i> Do your own thinking and look at the market on your own as it pertains to your coins
whether they are for investment or pleasure. Don't bank on someone else's view of the market. >>
There is simply no alternative to doing your own thinking. Even if you can afford
expensive advice or listen to financial advice on a chat board you will most prob-
ably lose in the long run if you let others make the decisions.
Learn about what you invest in as well as the nature of the specific instrument. If
you don't understand both of these then don't buy. Just spread your money a-
round a little and be sure to have something that will go up no matter what hap-
pens and something else that will perform well under the conditions you personally
believe is most likely.
Anyone buying coins just for profit should have unloaded by the autumn of 2008.
If the metals break it will be too late to sell. If they don't then it's anybody's guess
how coins will perform. There could be a great deal of upside left in some coins. Long
term trends are about to turn against some segments but collectors don't need to
worry about such things like investors do. Long term trends also tend to play out in
the longer term so any concern is not immediate.
Enjoy the hobby. Most people will enjoy it more if their neck isn't extended further than
a thanksgiving turkey on Wednesday.
that's my investment advice.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>My view on coins is much like my view on Vegas. Whether I win or lose there is entertainment value that I factor into the equation. At The Hard Rock I might put xxx,xxx into play during the course of the evening and if I break even I actually feel like I won because I had a blast doing it. The price for entertainment. If i lose 20% of my stake I was still entertained. I look at coins much the same way. Even if in the end if I lose 20% or so I had had a blast during it and I LOVE it. The fun factor and the cost of being in the game. Coin collecting is a hobby to much of us whether it's at $100 or $25,000 a clip and each of us had a threshold or entertainment budget.
I do not confuse coin collecting with investing. There are not even on the same spreadsheet at MJ World Headquarter's. Joe's comments maybe right for the "coin investor". However, I think the Fed's push towards getting folks involved riskier investments aka stock market, real estate is pure folly at this point in time. I'm actually taking some of my people to underweight in the market for the time being. They have enjoyed a nice run. Of course the million dollar question is, "where to park the money?" The Fed wants it in the stock market and that's what keeps me up some nights. JMHO.
MJ >>
I would much rather lose 20% of XX in Vegas or at the local casino's we now have all over western PA than on a coin! I think the entertainment value playing craps and losing is greater than losing money on a coin. Happy Thanksgiving all.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The coin market is dead. Just ask your local B&M when was the last time he sold a collector coin. Its all about bullion now. Check realized prices on Ebay for true auctions. Quite frankly, im surprised prices for collector coins are still as high as they are. >>
I've never seen my B & M sell anything besides bullion and cheaper Morgans. I've never seen any B & M sell Joe O' Connor type of coins. I've never bought a coin on Ebay so I don't have a comment on that
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
All one needed to do to lose money in coins was to buy most of your stuff around 2004-2005 or later. And if you bought 90% of what was being offered by the typical retailer, you are probably underwater at present.
roadrunner
Numismatics is thinly traded, and unlike the securities market, the commission on a numismatic coin you buy can be anywhere from 10% to whatever the particular dealer thinks he can get away with. Well publicized auctions can provide some stability here. You buy a coin, you pay a commission. You sell / trade / upgrade a coin, you pay a commission, though if you're lucky the coin you're trading may have appreciated in the interim.
Look at the bid / ask on the 10 shares of the ETF, SPY. Then look at the bid / ask spread on, say an 1892 P Dime in MS 66.
TDN - It is very easy to lose money in the rare coin market.
1) You can overpay for a coin (I won't even look at some dealer cases at shows or their offerings online for this reason)
2) If you bought an 1883 N/C Nickel in MS 66, a Trime in MS 65, a type Barber or Seated Dime in MS 65, a type I 1917 P SLQ in FH 5 ten years ago, you're underwater on the coin.
3) A lot depends when you bought the particular coin. Look at the Amon Carter $. If you bought almost any Liberty Nickel in MS 66 between two and five years ago, you're underwater on the coin.
Some of my type coins have appreciated nicely, such as an IHC in 5 RD, a Classic Half Cent in 5 RB, a Capped Bust Quarter in MS 64, and an 1888 Seated Half in MS 66. However, most of the coins I bought five years ago if I'm lucky, are worth what I paid for them. I bought a nice 1807 Dime in MS 63 that I don't think I could get what I paid for it six years ago.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Only if the grade has remained the same.
Collector coins are extremely soft. I dont deal in High end ones becuase they would not sell locally anyway. But coins priced between 50-500 are difficult to sell to the general public in the current market. Also, I dont carry junk in the shop trays, they are all nicer for the grade and priced right. Ocassionally I sell a few morgan $ in the 30-40 range, a few proof sets mainly as gifts, and once in a blue moon a nice type coin. Right now its all bullion driven , People are buying 90%, .999 silver, gold bullion and coins, as well as bulk silver $, Silver eagles are on fire as well here lately.
I am actually buying collections from collectors that were buying collector coins in the past at a rate of at least 25 to 1. (25 people selling for everyone buying and its getting more that way each day. Many folks arestill feeling the pinch and have not recovered from the downturn last year.
However, at local shows in this area there are a few buyers of collector material based on reports from other dealers I know that do more regional type show activity.
<< <i>The coin market is dead. Just ask your local B&M when was the last time he sold a collector coin. Its all about bullion now. Check realized prices on Ebay for true auctions. Quite frankly, im surprised prices for collector coins are still as high as they are. >>
The middle market coin market, as is the case with any collecting market now, is in the doldrums. Really great is selling, and really cheap is selling, everything else is not.
I would hope that my coins would hold much of their value, but I'm here to have fun!
True enough. Of course, it's almost always a bad idea to buy whatever it is that most retailers are pushing.
I do not believe that coins are or ever should be viewed as an investment.
I think that an expert (or a non-expert that truly has an expert on his side) can treat coins as an investment and have success with it. But at least 90% of the coin investors in this world are not up to the challenge, and should probably be doing things very differently.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>I always ask the Mexican guy who does my Landscaping for advice on investments......hes right as often as the experts. >>
lol
<< <i>The coin market is dead. Just ask your local B&M when was the last time he sold a collector coin. Its all about bullion now. Check realized prices on Ebay for true auctions. Quite frankly, im surprised prices for collector coins are still as high as they are. >>
Doesnt seem that way from Heritage auctions. Prices might be a little lower, but people are still active in buying.
PCGS Registries
Box of 20
SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
I need to look for Joe's full article, and see what his rationale is that supports his thinking.
As for the current market - well there are apparently a lot of diverging observations. Better date Barber halves in circ grades are still strong. Check out Manorcourt's Ebay listings if you want to see a strong market area in action. An R3 date (not super tough) in VF35 brought well over MS60 Bid money about a week ago. Or check out early copper in decent condition anywhere - there are few bargains. John Adams wrote an article about the outrageously high prices and loose grading of large cents (particularly 1794's), and that it was going to kill the market for future collectors. I believe that article was written in 1973.....
<< <i>Article posted >>
Wow! That was an outstanding article. Well-thought, well-written, with elements ranging from Steve Martin to dandelions in the spring. I am going to go read it again.
Only if the grade has remained the same
Much more likely than an upgrade is that the coin is now considered a grade lower....and If you hold such coins, not only are you underwater, but you've probably drowned as well.
Remember that for every successful upgrade than was made, 90-95% of those coins are now the low end coins that are selling for distressed prices. What goes around comes around. This is not much different than bankers making profits on selling securitized mortgages rated AAA, and now leaving the current owners holding the bag.
We're not seeing very many collector rarities simply because everyone who has them wants to keep them. Would you sell your very best, nicest coin? Or, are you going to sell the cheaper ones to try to get another one as good as your best?
I've seen any number of top collectors who sold their very best coins in the 2004-2008 period to take advantage of rising market prices and get into something "safer" or less promoted. Oreville discussed here at length about moving out of his unique 1875-s $20 in MS67 and getting into a pile of generic slabbed mint state $20's and $10's.
In reading the O'Connor article I don't find anything there that I could really argue against. He's not calling for an immediate fall in the market. Besides the Jan 2012 issue of 1099's we also have 6,12,24,30,60,120 yr cycles all bottoming in the 2012-2014 period (ie cyclically similar to 1892-1894). If any numismatists currently alive were around back in 1892-1894 they can tell us how things went.
roadrunner
<< <i>Article posted >>
Not the article that I received in the mail, which prompted me to start this thread.
merse
<< <i>Joe O'Conner is a good guy but he isn't good writier meaning, restating the news like an old CNN report isn't what I want from him. I love his coins and wish i could buy them, I mean his archives is incredible, I mean have you ever visited his site, it is like a who's who of ex Eliasberg and Stack my two personal favorites. But what is going in the numisamtic industry, what has every dealer drank int he past 12 months that they feel the need to become armchair writers, economists, fortune tellers and/or just plain ole the New Yorker mag writers....I mean what happened to just being a great ole dealer like Chapman, Meihl and Kosoff? >>
Everyone is entitiled to an opinion but I agree with you.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
This from a man with over 8000 posts?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I suspect attempting to call the top and even a bottom in the coin market can be similar to looking at a broken clock- the time will be right twice a day and the coin market has so many components that they rarely move in the same direction all the time. The coin market may have tired or over extended sectors, but it seems there there are other sectors that are just ripe to be promoted
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
What is happening is that the hobby is actually expanding in supply and yet the demand is not growing at the same rate, hence the market demand is getting "thinner" in relation to the supply.
Why?
I will list some of the reasons:
(1) The "Canadiazation" of the US coin hobby. The US Mint has been pumping out too much in new coin products since 1986. True, it has pumped up demand but the hangover supply is overwhelming the coin market. The Canada coin market has suffered since the late 1970 when the Royal Canada Mint (RCM) started to pummel the Canada coin market with a bewildering array of new products.
(2) The increasing array of new collectibles withing the coin hobby/market. Examples are the collecting of the plastic slabs themselves such as the black NGC slab, the PCGS doily slab, the GSA silver dollar mailing boxes (without regard to what is inside them!)
(3) The passage of time in which we have yet another year and in a month YET ANOTHER YEAR (!)of coins available to collect, which also increases supply. The demand is not increasing in proportion.
(4) The increasing array of PCGS and NGC types of grading. The first strike, the plus grades, etc., etc.
(5) etc, etc.
<< <i>We're not seeing very many collector rarities simply because everyone who has them wants to keep them.
Would you sell your very best, nicest coin? Or, are you going to sell the cheaper ones to try to get another one as good as your best? >>
That's what the auction houses want you to do! Sell your best that is.
I also heard something like; "I'm selling my key coins before they go bust".
I don't remember which topic this was on, maybe this one. I thought the same thing. I collect coins and will hang onto my collections til I die and have
spelled out the value of each coin and series of coins for my daughters to use. This was done from MY COLLECTION at Heritage by printing off every page.
I even spelled out in my will a fair and equitable way to divide them up so they come out even if they want to use it. And they know the prices are wholesale.
JT
I collect all 20th century series except gold including those series that ended there.
Indeed, Joe’s archives are incredible. At the 2009 [not 2010] CoinFest, O’Connor had some of the archived quarters and halves, on loan from collectors, on display; these coins are spectacular. Also, as I said in a past column, he had some terrific coins in Boston at the ANA Convention:
Coin Rarities & Related Topics: Great Coins at the ANA Convention in Boston
DaveE <<I do not believe in what [O’Connor] promotes or how he promotes.>>
This is the oddest statement in this thread. In my view, many of the coins that Joe sells are tremendous. How could a true numismatist possibly criticize most of the coins that he sells? While I understand how some of his prices might require explanation, I would be surprised if an expert questioned the quality of most of the coins that he sells or their numismatic importance.
--
Pricing:
BidAsk <<You would never know [that Joe is bearish] by the asking prices in his inventory.>>
ChrisRx <<Bada-bing!>>
JSsson<<Those asking prices border on larceny. …>>
Consider the Eliasberg 1830 Capped Bust Half Dollar (O-101), now PCGS graded MS-65+ -- The pedigree for this coin is listed on Joe’s website, as follows:
* George Howard Earle, Jr. (Henry Chapman 6/1912)
* John H. Clapp (Morton and J.B. Stack private sale, 1942)
* Louis E. Eliasberg, Sr (Bowers and Merena 4/1997: lot 1859 @ $22,000 as "MS-66")
* Phil Kaufman
* (Heritage CSNS "Joseph C. Thomas Collection", 4/2009: lot 2444 @ $21,850 as NGC MS67)
Now, O’Connor is asking $14,500, even though this same coin realized more in April 2009, when rare coin markets were bottoming out. Furthermore, it sold for $22,000 in 1997! (Who had it downgraded?) Besides, note the incomparable pedigree!
As O’Connor is currently offering more half dollars than coins of any other denomination, let us consider the prices for these, which I have taken from Joe’s website. I added a few comments, in brackets.
1794 Flowing Hair 50c, AU53 (PCGS) ~ O.101a, Choice AU 135,000
1795 Flowing Hair 50c, AU55 (PCGS) ~ O.105a, Even light to medium gray 24,500
[The PCGS price guide value is $23,000, for the least rare variety. -Analyst]
1797 Draped Bust 50c, XF40 (PCGS) ~ O.101, Key Small Eagle Type 125,000
[This is markedly higher than the PCGS guide value, but I have seen some moderately cleaned and/or moderately dipped coins of this key type that have been certified as grading EF-40 or higher. – Analyst]
1801 Draped Bust 50c, XF40 (PCGS) ~ O.101, Ex Pryor 9,750
[This is not cheap, but this coin really needs to be seen to be appreciated. –Analyst]
1802 Draped Bust 50c, AU55 (PCGS) - PCGS "Green Tag" 29,500
[Joe’s price is markedly lower than the PCGS price guide value of $32,500! The images, though, lead me to wonder if this coin is as impressive as most of Joe’s other coins. – Analyst]
1803 Draped Bust 50c, AU58 (PCGS) - O.104: Small 3, PCGS Pop. 1/2 32,500
1805/4 Draped Bust 50c, AU58 (PCGS/CAC) - O.101 29,500
1830 Capped Bust 50c, MS65+ (PCGS) - O.101, Eliasberg 14,500 [See remarks above.]
1856-O Liberty Seated 50c, MS65 (PCGS/CAC) - Scarce Gem No Motto 6,500
[The PCGS price guide value is $7500. – Analyst]
1859-O Liberty Seated 50c, MS66 (PCGS/CAC) - Gem "No Motto" 17,500
[The PCGS price guide value is $20,000. – Analyst]
1872-S Liberty Seated 50c, MS65 (PCGS/CAC) - Rare Gem, Eliasberg 22,500
[The PCGS price guide value is $21,000. The Eliasberg pedigree and this coin’s placement in the condition census are important factors. – Analyst]
As for why many of O’Connor’s coins are truly worth premiums, some very much related points can be found in my articles, including the following: (In fact, Joe is quoted in two of them.)
The Basis for Collecting Naturally Toned Coins, Part 1
The Basis for Collecting Naturally Toned Coins, Part 2
The Basis for Collecting Naturally Toned Coins, Part 3
PCGS Message Board Thread about Collecting Naturally Toned Coins Articles
Defining Coin Doctoring and Dipping, Additions to the PCGS Lawsuit Against Alleged Coin Doctors – 09/08/10
That being said this is ONLY one dealer’s opinion.
<< <i>but we collectors (unlike you dealers) get emotionally attached to our coins (well all of us except for Oreville that is, but he doesn't count since he is a CPA who is therefore without emotion....... >>
Hey!
I do NOT resemble that remark!
I sell only ONE of my best coins and even then I made sure it was mostly a like exchange in which I ended up with numerous patterns, Cal gold fractionals, US coins, etc., etc. in addition to the small amount of "boot" and all of a sudden I am without emotion?
Hardly! I agonized long and hard and finally succumbed only because I saw the opportunity to parlay ONE great coin I had into multiples of different great and even rarer pieces of numismatic wonder that I could no longer resist. At the same time, as a collector, I began to worry about this one coin I had that became the tail that wagged the dog concept in my coin collection. In addition, I wanted to be a little more diversified with more $20 gold coins in my collection and finally succumbed to making that deal.
This came after a period of over 15 years in which I did not sell or trade a single coin!
<< <i>As a practical matter, in order to be sure whether or not your sales to me meet the $600 annual threshold, I will be collecting your tax information on every sale that you make to me, no matter how small..... >>
Technically, under the new law, the dealer will not have to issue 1099's to collectors but herein lies the problem; how can the dealer be sure that whom he is buying from is purely a collector?
This is why we are advising our clients to issue 1099's to EVERYONE just to be "on the safe side." This is what is getting everyone crazy.
It is unfortunate as one small mistake in erroneously not issuing a 1099 to a seller who is thought to be a collector can cost the dealer many thousands of dollars in penalties/loss of deduction.
So Joe understands the 1099-MISC law from a practical sense to absolutely avoid penalties.
An investor will generally sell their coins if they knew it was going to decline 20% in value over the next two years.
A collector will generally not sell their favored coins if they knew it was going to decline 20% in value over the next two years.
Also, I notice that investors check the values of each of their coins at least weekly. Collectors do not check the values of their coins as often.
Upon reading your commentaries on Joe's coins, I find it incredibly misleading.
You should realize how high the PCGS price guide figures are on such coins. To compare those values to the quote prices on several of the pieces is really discouraging from such a prolific writer as yourself.
As a former journalist, I realize that facts are supposed to be reported, not opined on as an editorial writer should...
Just a quick thought...