O'connor Numismatics recommends selling rare coins
abitofthisabitofthat
Posts: 2,142 ✭✭✭
I received an unsolicited mailer from O'connor Numismatics which strongly recommends selling rare coin now, based upon the premise that prices will fall over the next year or two.
For investors - "you should be selling into today's market".
For collectors - "If you are a collector, consider which coins you're most passionate about, that you still want to own long term, meaning 5 to 10 years plus. This is where you should focus your efforts, and for everything else, it's time to sell".
It struck me as very strongly worded collecting/investing advice. Did anyone else receive this, and if so what were your thoughts?
For investors - "you should be selling into today's market".
For collectors - "If you are a collector, consider which coins you're most passionate about, that you still want to own long term, meaning 5 to 10 years plus. This is where you should focus your efforts, and for everything else, it's time to sell".
It struck me as very strongly worded collecting/investing advice. Did anyone else receive this, and if so what were your thoughts?
merse
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"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.american-legacy-coins.com
No need to tout the coins to other clients. The coins can be sold to other dealers, at auction, etc.
As for motive, Joe is obviously looking for some immediate business and, if he's right about the market, some long term good will.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>I received an unsolicited mailer from O'connor Numismatics which strongly recommends selling rare coin now, based upon the premise that prices will fall over the next year or two.
....... so what were your thoughts? >>
I think he is trying to make money.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I have learned coins are a long term hold with cyclical bumps every so often. No need to spread fear.
<< <i>You would never know it by the asking prices in his inventory. >>
Bada-bing!
<< <i>You would never know it by the asking prices in his inventory. >>
Those asking prices border on larceny. I've asked other dealers about O'Connor and let's just say he isn't a popular guy.
Edited to add:
Okay, his prices aren't as outrageous as Anaconda, Albanese RC or some others but they are similar to Larry Whitlow prices. The coins are nice but priced to bury the buyers.
As a collector, in the last year I have sold my most expensive and valuable coins and deployed the money into less expensive (lower risk, IMO) coins.
I do not consider my collection to be my ATM or 401k, so if I take some (more) bumps and bruises along the way, I will not suffer excessively.
As for the price of the coins in his inventory, I do not think it is extraordinary when considering the high end material that he sells. If you can find comparable coins, and good luck at that, at a lesser price, buy them.
<< <i>I always ask the Mexican guy who does my Landscaping for advice on investments......hes right as often as the experts. >>
I consider long term to be generational, 20 years.
<< <i>I received an unsolicited mailer from O'connor Numismatics which strongly recommends...
For investors - "you should be selling into today's market".
For collectors - "If you are a collector, consider which coins you're most passionate about, that you still want to own long term, meaning 5 to 10 years plus. This is where you should focus your efforts, and for everything else, it's time to sell". >>
As a pure collector I don't care if they are right or wrong. I buy coins because I want them for my collection and/or just plain enjoy them.
I don't buy for investment. Who can predict the coin investment market anyway?
<< <i>
<< <i>I received an unsolicited mailer from O'connor Numismatics which strongly recommends selling rare coin now, based upon the premise that prices will fall over the next year or two.
....... so what were your thoughts? >>
I think he is trying to make money. >>
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
...completely ignoring the passion of a collector, coins have been a poor investment for most coin buyers.
Most people on the forum do not know this, but truer words have not spoken here.
<< <i>I think he is trying to make money. >>
Yes. All businessmen do that. Some by taking short term advantage of their business associates/customers and some by building long term mutually beneficial relationships. There seems to be some disagreement in this thread on which he is doing. However, any time you're talking about a coin dealer, there are those who just assume the former no matter who the dealer is.
--Jerry
However... he "predicts" that the coin market will be going down over the next few years, while advising that "most collecters should be selling now"... if his advice were to be followed by "most collectors", his "prediction" would certainly become a self-fulfilling prophecy...
...because if "most collectors" were to suddenly begin to sell their collections, it would follow that few were buying (again, this is based on the premise that "most collectors" took Joe's advice)... if this were to happen, then the prices would come down due to a "glut" in the marketplace coupled with little demand...
...in such a scenario, someone would end up with no chair when the music stopped... and I highly doubt that a businessman would promote such a scenario only to find himself/herself the one without a chair...
I just have trouble finding logic in promoting the idea that folks should "sell their coins (to me) now" at the "top" of the market, if I think that the prices will fall substantially in the near future... unless there is more to this than meets the eye... an unspoken intention perhaps? (such as "there are very few NICE coins available and ready buyers are looking for them so maybe I can shake the tree and some fruit will fall out?)
FWIW... I would simply suggest to anyone "holding" significant coins... if you are a passionate collector who is not looking at your coins as a cash cow, then hold them, collect them and enjoy them... however, if you have been looking at your coins as an investment with little passion for the hobby... now would likely be as good a time as any to sell them and find/make better investment choices... and leave the nice coins to the passionate collectors...
Since he referenced holding periods for coins, I would appreciate hearing his thoughts what coins he believes are worth holding 5 to 10 years......
I don't think most collector investors do that anyway.
Having said that , I also would place enjoyment of the hobby above all else......
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Excellent response, Joe, and I look forward to reading the full letter on your website.
...completely ignoring the passion of a collector, coins have been a poor investment for most coin buyers.
Most people on the forum do not know this, but truer words have not spoken here. >>
It would be most intersting to see a statistical study done about how buyers from mostly bought from a single dealer fared when they sold their collections at true auction. Of course, there would be a lot of variables, a lot of bad data, but I would still find it interesting, and there might be some useful data in the mix.
<< <i>...Regarding my prices, I do focus on fairly expensive coins, but my typical 3-5% margins are some of the lowest in the business.. >>
Joe, I had no idea you were such a nice guy. So "typically", if you buy a coin for $10,000, you offer it for sale at between $10,300 and $10,500?. And not just in cases when you buy a coin for a client as an agent?
<< <i>
<< <i>Excellent response, Joe, and I look forward to reading the full letter on your website.
...completely ignoring the passion of a collector, coins have been a poor investment for most coin buyers.
Most people on the forum do not know this, but truer words have not spoken here. >>
It would be most intersting to see a statistical study done about how buyers from mostly bought from a single dealer fared when they sold their collections at true auction. Of course, there would be a lot of variables, a lot of bad data, but I would still find it interesting, and there might be some useful data in the mix. >>
Frankly, I am not sure that there is much of a difference between single dealers and multiple dealers because most coins are subpar investment vehicles no matter what the source. I guess one could argue that if you never comparison shop, there is a high likelihood of overpaying. Is that your argument?
<< <i>
<< <i>...Regarding my prices, I do focus on fairly expensive coins, but my typical 3-5% margins are some of the lowest in the business.. >>
Joe, I had no idea you were such a nice guy. So "typically", if you buy a coin for $10,000, you offer it for sale at between $10,300 and $10,500?. And not just in cases when you buy a coin for a client as an agent? >>
What are the typical dealer mark-ups for expensive coins? Just curious.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
roadrunner
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
...because if "most collectors" were to suddenly begin to sell their collections, it would follow that few were buying (again, this is based on the premise that "most collectors" took Joe's advice)... if this were to happen, then the prices would come down due to a "glut" in the marketplace coupled with little demand...
...in such a scenario, someone would end up with no chair when the music stopped... and I highly doubt that a businessman would promote such a scenario only to find himself/herself the one without a chair...
Larry - My guess is that Joe does not have the whole world following his advice, so I think we're safe. And I think Joe is safe to speak his mind.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Joe, I had no idea you were such a nice guy. So "typically", if you buy a coin for $10,000, you offer it for sale at between $10,300 and $10,500?. And not just in cases when you buy a coin for a client as an agent? >>
Mark - I'm sure you already realize this, but if Joe's typical margin's are really 3-5% - which I don't doubt - it's almost certainly not because he's buying a lot of coins on spec and marking them up 3-5%. Joe is likely brokering a lot of expensive coins, which would bring down his average margins.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I have not looked at Joe's coins, but I've heard many a dealer claim this, then find some of their coins purchased at a Heritage auction and marked up 50%.
<< <i><< ...Regarding my prices, I do focus on fairly expensive coins, but my typical 3-5% margins are some of the lowest in the business.. >>
Joe, I had no idea you were such a nice guy. So "typically", if you buy a coin for $10,000, you offer it for sale at between $10,300 and $10,500?. And not just in cases when you buy a coin for a client as an agent? >>
Mark - I'm sure you already realize this, but if Joe's typical margin's are really 3-5% - which I don't doubt - it's almost certainly not because he's buying a lot of coins on spec and marking them up 3-5%. Joe is likely brokering a lot of expensive coins, which would bring down his average margins. >>
Andy, you might very well be correct, and I wanted to try to clarify what Joe meant by his comments. The way they were written, it sounded as if those incredibly low margins applied to more than just brokered transactions.
I have not looked at Joe's coins, but I've heard many a dealer claim this, then find some of their coins purchased at a Heritage auction and marked up 50%.
FWIW, I mark my coins up as much as I can, sometimes in excess of 100%. (In case there's any doubt, I do this because I like to make money.) Yet my average profit margin is less than 10%, even if I exclude coins that I am only brokering.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I recommend selling coins that are going to decline in value, and keeping coins that are going to increase in value.
<< <i>Regarding my prices, I do focus on fairly expensive coins, but my typical 3-5% margins are some of the lowest in the business.
I have not looked at Joe's coins, but I've heard many a dealer claim this, then find some of their coins purchased at a Heritage auction and marked up 50%.
FWIW, I mark my coins up as much as I can, sometimes in excess of 100%. (In case there's any doubt, I do this because I like to make money.) Yet my average profit margin is less than 10%, even if I exclude coins that I am only brokering. >>
A "typical" margin and an "average" margin can be and usually are two very different things. The former is based on a relatively high percentage of the seller's transactions, while the latter is just an average.
Maybe he meant "average", which is a lot more believable than "typical". My typical mark-up is roughly 15%. But my average profit margin is a small fraction of that.
Honestly - to have lost money the past decade would take a lot of bad luck or poor decision making - or both.
While I only own a few "classic coins" and dont expect to sell them anytime soon,I am not moved by anyones ads to sell now before prices drop.I also am annoyed at that certain dealers ads in CW.Especailly the ones that say sell me your gold and buy silver now!!He and any other dealer has a perfect right to conduct their businesses and write what they want in their ads just as I have the right to smirk at them,ignore them,and do whatever I want with my coins.
Bottom line.....get informed and make your own decisions about your hobby and ENJOY!!
I think at the rarefied levels of Numismatics you typically operate in the return has been much better however for the more typical collectors not so much especially once you take into account buy/sells spreads, cost of capital, opportunity costs etc. Naturally I have no data to support this as I am just a typical collector but I see some of the things I have selling for about the same or less than they were several years ago. And I suspect that the active collecting lifespan of the typical collector is only a few years. Look at all the folks who have come and gone on the boards...they start collecting like a bat out of hades and then a year or two later are gone here and ATS. I mention this because I think it helps to have a long term view if you would like to eventually get a decent ROI out of your collection.
This especially applies to us poor unloved mid MS grade classic commem collectors. So I should not that there is also a variable about what you collect...obviously some stuff has done much better than others.
Just my thought on a Wednesday...have a great Thanksgiving everyone!
K
<< <i>TDN,
I think at the rarefied levels of Numismatics you typically operate in the return has been much better however for the more typical collectors not so much especially once you take into account buy/sells spreads, cost of capital, opportunity costs etc. Naturally I have no data to support this as I am just a typical collector but I see some of the things I have selling for about the same or less than they were several years ago. And I suspect that the active collecting lifespan of the typical collector is only a few years. Look at all the folks who have come and gone on the boards...they start collecting like a bat out of hades and then a year or two later are gone here and ATS. I mention this because I think it helps to have a long term view if you would like to eventually get a decent ROI out of your collection.
This especially applies to us poor unloved mid MS grade classic commem collectors. So I should not that there is also a variable about what you collect...obviously some stuff has done much better than others.
Just my thought on a Wednesday...have a great Thanksgiving everyone!
K >>
Since O'Connor deals in those rarified levels, as did Whitlow, I feel my comment is quite pertinent. This letter was not directed at Joe Average collector.
Ahh Good point! I will go back into my cave now.
K
<< <i>
As a pure collector I don't care if they are right or wrong. I buy coins because I want them for my collection and/or just plain enjoy them.
I don't buy for investment. Who can predict the coin investment market anyway? >>
Right on the mark!!
I do not confuse coin collecting with investing. There are not even on the same spreadsheet at MJ World Headquarter's. Joe's comments maybe right for the "coin investor". However, I think the Fed's push towards getting folks involved riskier investments aka stock market, real estate is pure folly at this point in time. I'm actually taking some of my people to underweight in the market for the time being. They have enjoyed a nice run. Of course the million dollar question is, "where to park the money?" The Fed wants it in the stock market and that's what keeps me up some nights. JMHO.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
If your a investor than maybe there is some logic to there statement if things go that way? High prices tend to bring out fresh coins from privet hands.Depressed prices seem to have the opposite effect.
So you may see bargin prices in guides but that doesn't mean that
these coins will be available to purchase.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>I always ask the Mexican guy who does my Landscaping for advice on investments......hes right as often as the experts. >>
I have done that too, and my guy has been 100% correct. I can't understand him, but there are a lot of
si senor's and such and something about Zapata, I think. If I ask should I sell I always get a Si Senor!
If I ask should I be buying always an emphatic Si Senor! I think I understand the oro part, or is it toro?
Hmmmmmmm,
bob
PS: some think this is an attempt at humor, however, it is how I view investment advice from dealers.
I listened to my Merrill Lynch adviser as I watched my portfolio go from $270,000 to $30,000. Yes,
it was my fault. I was remiss and concentrating on making a living on the road and feeding my family.
Oh, we won the class action suit and I got a nice $11,000 check. Do your own thinking and look at the
market on your own as it pertains to your coins whether they are for investment or pleasure. Don't bank
on someone else's view of the market.
Then after the Turkey it will probably fall asleep. LOL.
<< <i><< I received an unsolicited mailer from O'connor Numismatics which strongly recommends selling rare coin now, based upon the premise that prices will fall over the next year or two. ....... so what were your thoughts? >>
I think he is trying to make money. >>
Come on, he is not doing this to try to lose money.
I do believe Joe is being sincere about what he thinks. This guy is actually pretty knowledgeable even about the stock market.
By the way, it is always good to examine your collection and see what fits in your collection and consider perhaps moving what no longer works for your collection for something else, including $.
That makes sense whether you collect only wheaties or ultra expensive proof gold.
<< <i>
<< <i>...Regarding my prices, I do focus on fairly expensive coins, but my typical 3-5% margins are some of the lowest in the business.. >>
Joe, I had no idea you were such a nice guy. So "typically", if you buy a coin for $10,000, you offer it for sale at between $10,300 and $10,500?. And not just in cases when you buy a coin for a client as an agent? >>
Mark, are you now making a public commitment, as well, to sell everything you have in inventory at 3-5% margins? You got to keep up with the competition, you know!