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Bullion silver vs. numismatic silver coins
TequilaDave
Posts: 271 ✭✭✭
I can't help but notice that although bullion silver has nearly doubled in price over the last 1.5 yrs yet numismatic coins have remained essentially unchanged over the same period of time. For example, 1.5 yrs ago I could buy a common date MS64 Morgan for $48, and today $48 will still buy that same Morgan dollar. However, 1.5 yrs ago a silver eagle ran me ~$13 and today it would cost me $22.50. Even more glaring is a circulated 1883 Morgan now trading at $18.50 and an AU of the same date trading at $22! All things being equal, an MS64 Morgan should now be ~66% higher or now trading at $80 ea. This same pattern seems to apply to all higher grade silver coins I've looked at. So what gives? Are higher grade silver coins a screaming buy or does this signal that bullion silver is extremely overpriced and will soon adjust lower or ? Personally, I like the former possibility but who know?!? There must be a reason numismatic coins have not participated in the nearly doubling of spot silver!
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apples and oranges but you're looking at the fruit salad market
https://acoinshop.com/ —-> https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
In 5 yrs or less I would not be surprised to see an MS64 Morgan bringing within 10% of spot much the same way that an MS65 $20 Saint might do the same as well. If silver should reach $65/oz (3X increase) would you want to pay $145 for MS64's to maintain today's spreads? I didn't think so. More than likely they would fetch $55-$75 and would still be at their highest level in years. Imo by $100/oz silver they'd be priced within 10% of melt or $80-$85. And should the price of silver fall back dramatically, so will the MS64's.
roadrunner
Could get interesting. I think $48 for an MS64 Morgan has almost no downside
Granted, I don't think the $5 an ounce jump will make an 1893-S rarity go from $20,000 to $20,005.
www.brunkauctions.com
The coin prices were very, very slow to drop after that.
<< <i>I remember when the silver bubble burst in 1980. Common silver coins had appreciated with the rise in bullion.
The coin prices were very, very slow to drop after that. >>
A few months after the silver peak in Jan. 1980, common date BU Walkers were bringing close to $4000 a roll or $200 per coin. The silver content may not have been a factor, though, because common date BU Buffalo nickels were also stratospheric - around $1800 per roll.
This rang a bell in my head and the next trip to the U-Pull-It Junkyard (technically looking for a studebaker generator)...I spent a few hours pulling every back seat out of every sixties and fifties car I could get into.
The resulting haul netted me over $500! (silver value)
About a decade later, my competitive shooting team was at a match back in the boonies in western Pa. and lo and behold behind the range berm there were a half dozen old cars...rotting away. so, early sunday morning I made my way back there through the briars to try that trick again and on the first car...opened the back door...and promptly got stung by at least ten bees. Being allergic, that ended me up at the ER. (no coins).