If we don't start to see some inflation numbers it's going to rest at $1050-1150. There's also a potential for a retest of $1000. Too many "populist" longs in the market.
A lot of the extreme forecasts for gold come under the assumption of massive inflation. The theory goes that U.S. government spending is up, and public debt rising. (Gee... anyone out there hasn't heard?) This will presumably inevitably lead to the government cranking out money, inducing inflation. Inflation is great for anyone owing money.
The problem is, right now, in spite of all the loud punditry, there is no inflation. There's been if anything a deflation, with dollar-denominated cash holding its own against other currencies, a manic-depressive stock market, and even other commodities. Until inflation actually happens, all of this is still in theory. The theory may be pretty plausible, and it may have many historic precedents, but inflation right now is not happening. It could happen tomorrow morning, but it's not happening right now. (As of 07/26/2010, anyway.)
For all the theoretical problems associated with U.S. government debt, the percentage debt to GDP is a lot lower now than it was at other points in history. The numbers are scarier and more intimidating today--trillions instead of millions--but this is because of past inflation. (It should be noted to the credit of the gold bulls that most of this past inflation was throughout the 20th century, after the U.S. came off the gold standard, when the dollar became a fiat currency.) What influences long-term viability is not so much the actual numbers as the percentages and proportions, as well as the viability of long-term trends. The present rate of debt accumulation isn't sustainable, but no trend continues indefinitely. We got here today because of constant changes in the state of being. If one went back to 1950 and projected technology from that era, birth rates, and social trends, one might extrapolate that by 2000, Earth would be rendered uninhabitable. Thankfully, we've invented car exhaust systems, better refrigerators, and birth control pills. Likewise, dire necessity will over the next fifty years very likely induce some pretty dramatic changes that, by the time I'm on my death bed (or consciousness archival recording system), will make today look pretty crude. Sooner or later, govenment spending issues will have to be addressed along the way.
Improperly Cleaned, Our passion for numismatics is Genuine! Now featuring correct spelling.
Let's not discount the massive purchases by China and India that fueled this last $400 move up the last two years.
I have been VERY bullish gold since Feb. '02, which was when it closed over $318 on a weekly chart...and that's exactly when I started buying a lot of generic Saints in the most rudimentary way. (You know how that 'bug' morphed...I definately got the bu and it was a GREAT one! ) I knew that a 20+ year old bear market was OVER. I'm still bullish although less so now that we are at $1200. After all, $300-$1200 is a 300% move. There are bulls out there who are still saying $3000, $5000...I don't believe we will see those prics in our lifetime short of a cataclysmic event that I wouldn't even want to begin to define. I thought that with some ~$18 trillion printed globally that we would have seen $1600 by now but the lack of inflation and tempered commodity prices are not to go ignored. This is a macro-event and until something changes on the inflation front I think we are in a $200 trading range. Start seeing persistent global inflation and you will see another 25-50% move up, I have no doubt about it. But that's to be seen and with the slowdown in China and Europe it's not going to happen in the very near future
I also see the rather successful stress-test of the European banks as a reason not to get too excited in the near future about rushing to but gold. I expected much worse results. That's my thinking.
Gold has done very well in a deflationary environment (in the now) much to the chagrin of DC and Wall St. What would it do in an inflationary envirornment? My guess, very well.
Gold over the past couple of years has actually been looked at as a real money which of course it is. It is being taken seriously. If anything it's been looked at as a reserve currency right along side of the Yen, Dollar and Swiss Franc. None of the four throws of any interest so that doesn't work against gold anymore. That was always the knock against gold in the past. Gold's advantage in this group it that it is no one else's liability. Obviously, the same can not be said for paper/fiat.
To get to $1350 from here you may need an event, a spark a catalyst................ as chartwise gold is looking vulnerable these days to further downside. I think it could come from a large default or another derivative skeleton that comes back to life and runs naked through the streets. Or just maybe our November elections will be a tonic for gold longs.
Gold thrives best when there is a lack of confidence in the system. If lack of confidence were a fruit there would be a bumper crop........
When you hold gold for financial insurance the same as you would for car, home or life you don't sweat the fluctuations in the price of gold. If it goes down it's like getting a break on your premiums. When you hold it as an investment it can be very emotional and it can make otherwise sane people bat $hit loco.
JMHO. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
For those that enjoy this thread. I would like to extend an invitation to all of the US coin forum posters to venture over to the PM forum every once and awhile and enjoy our town hall atmosphere. Granted, some of our folks there are very busy digging shelters, canning food and shopping for the latest in surface to air weaponry but you will all be welcomed never the less. Seriously we have some great threads and some seriously whip smart posters and rarely does anybody get killed. I promise no one bites. Strike that, I can actually think of a couple who might................MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Gold has done very well in a deflationary environment (in the now) much to the chagrin of DC and Wall St. What would it do in an inflationary envirornment? My guess, very well.
Gold over the past couple of years has actually been looked at as a real money which of course it is. It is being taken seriously. If anything it's been looked at as a reserve currency right along side of the Yen, Dollar and Swiss Franc. None of the four throws of any interest so that doesn't work against gold anymore. That was always the knock against gold in the past. Gold's advantage in this group it that it is no one else's liability. Obviously, the same can not be said for paper/fiat.
To get to $1350 from here you may need an event, a spark a catalyst................ as chartwise gold is looking vulnerable these days to further downside. I think it could come from a large default or another derivative skeleton that comes back to life and runs naked through the streets. Or just maybe our November elections will be a tonic for gold longs.
Gold thrives best when there is a lack of confidence in the system. If lack of confidence were a fruit there would be a bumper crop........
When you hold gold for financial insurance the same as you would for car, home or life you don't sweat the fluctuations in the price of gold. If it goes down it's like getting a break on your premiums. When you hold it as an investment it can be very emotional and it can make otherwise sane people bat $hit loco.
JMHO. MJ >>
Well put MJ. For years my feeling about "investing" in gold was that it is a non producing asset, it doesn't pay dividends or interest, and as such I steered clear. I have changed my tune in the last couple of years, and now have gold and PM fund holdings in my portfolio, and some physical in the bank. It still doesn't throw off any money, but I consider the times we now live in, economically speaking, simply too precarious to just put my money in the conventional places. My PM holdings are simply another way to diversify my holdings against the uncertainty of the financial markets.
Comments
<< <i>Ah, that would be Davis Hall!!!
ah yes my eyeballs have had it for tonite
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
<< <i>And Monte Hall is predicting $50 for the first person to show him a paper clip and a fast food ketchup packet. >>
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
LIQUIDATE ALL OF YOUR ASSETS NOW AND PUT THEM INTO GOLD!
-Chicken Little
Wonder what his motivation for that could be?
John
Never view my other linked pages. They aren't coin related.
If we don't start to see some inflation numbers it's going to rest at $1050-1150. There's also a potential for a retest of $1000. Too many "populist" longs in the market.
<< <i>Ah, that would be Davis Hall!!!
prediction is close ..bullish seasonals into fall for gold ..
The problem is, right now, in spite of all the loud punditry, there is no inflation. There's been if anything a deflation, with dollar-denominated cash holding its own against other currencies, a manic-depressive stock market, and even other commodities. Until inflation actually happens, all of this is still in theory. The theory may be pretty plausible, and it may have many historic precedents, but inflation right now is not happening. It could happen tomorrow morning, but it's not happening right now. (As of 07/26/2010, anyway.)
For all the theoretical problems associated with U.S. government debt, the percentage debt to GDP is a lot lower now than it was at other points in history. The numbers are scarier and more intimidating today--trillions instead of millions--but this is because of past inflation. (It should be noted to the credit of the gold bulls that most of this past inflation was throughout the 20th century, after the U.S. came off the gold standard, when the dollar became a fiat currency.) What influences long-term viability is not so much the actual numbers as the percentages and proportions, as well as the viability of long-term trends. The present rate of debt accumulation isn't sustainable, but no trend continues indefinitely. We got here today because of constant changes in the state of being. If one went back to 1950 and projected technology from that era, birth rates, and social trends, one might extrapolate that by 2000, Earth would be rendered uninhabitable. Thankfully, we've invented car exhaust systems, better refrigerators, and birth control pills. Likewise, dire necessity will over the next fifty years very likely induce some pretty dramatic changes that, by the time I'm on my death bed (or consciousness archival recording system), will make today look pretty crude. Sooner or later, govenment spending issues will have to be addressed along the way.
I have been VERY bullish gold since Feb. '02, which was when it closed over $318 on a weekly chart...and that's exactly when I started buying a lot of generic Saints in the most rudimentary way. (You know how that 'bug' morphed...I definately got the bu and it was a GREAT one!
I also see the rather successful stress-test of the European banks as a reason not to get too excited in the near future about rushing to but gold. I expected much worse results. That's my thinking.
<< <i>I forecast paper consumption will increase, because of all the 1099's being filled out
So...should I buy some Weyerhauser Lumber Co. stock?
Gold over the past couple of years has actually been looked at as a real money which of course it is. It is being taken seriously. If anything it's been looked at as a reserve currency right along side of the Yen, Dollar and Swiss Franc. None of the four throws of any interest so that doesn't work against gold anymore. That was always the knock against gold in the past. Gold's advantage in this group it that it is no one else's liability. Obviously, the same can not be said for paper/fiat.
To get to $1350 from here you may need an event, a spark a catalyst................ as chartwise gold is looking vulnerable these days to further downside. I think it could come from a large default or another derivative skeleton that comes back to life and runs naked through the streets. Or just maybe our November elections will be a tonic for gold longs.
Gold thrives best when there is a lack of confidence in the system. If lack of confidence were a fruit there would be a bumper crop........
When you hold gold for financial insurance the same as you would for car, home or life you don't sweat the fluctuations in the price of gold. If it goes down it's like getting a break on your premiums. When you hold it as an investment it can be very emotional and it can make otherwise sane people bat $hit loco.
JMHO. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>And Monte Hall is predicting $50 for the first person to show him a paper clip and a fast food ketchup packet. >>
I would add a Huntz Hall joke here but I don't want to date myself.
<< <i>Gold has done very well in a deflationary environment (in the now) much to the chagrin of DC and Wall St. What would it do in an inflationary envirornment? My guess, very well.
Gold over the past couple of years has actually been looked at as a real money which of course it is. It is being taken seriously. If anything it's been looked at as a reserve currency right along side of the Yen, Dollar and Swiss Franc. None of the four throws of any interest so that doesn't work against gold anymore. That was always the knock against gold in the past. Gold's advantage in this group it that it is no one else's liability. Obviously, the same can not be said for paper/fiat.
To get to $1350 from here you may need an event, a spark a catalyst................ as chartwise gold is looking vulnerable these days to further downside. I think it could come from a large default or another derivative skeleton that comes back to life and runs naked through the streets. Or just maybe our November elections will be a tonic for gold longs.
Gold thrives best when there is a lack of confidence in the system. If lack of confidence were a fruit there would be a bumper crop........
When you hold gold for financial insurance the same as you would for car, home or life you don't sweat the fluctuations in the price of gold. If it goes down it's like getting a break on your premiums. When you hold it as an investment it can be very emotional and it can make otherwise sane people bat $hit loco.
JMHO. MJ >>
Well put MJ. For years my feeling about "investing" in gold was that it is a non producing asset, it doesn't pay dividends or interest, and as such I steered clear. I have changed my tune in the last couple of years, and now have gold and PM fund holdings in my portfolio, and some physical in the bank. It still doesn't throw off any money, but I consider the times we now live in, economically speaking, simply too precarious to just put my money in the conventional places. My PM holdings are simply another way to diversify my holdings against the uncertainty of the financial markets.