***JULY 2010 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***
ProofCollection
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The next trading month is upon us, so here's a new thread.
My profit for June futures trading was about 38%. June was a little disappointing as I had expected gold to take off by mid-month, but it has been mired in the 1230-1250 price range lately. My outlook hasn't changed, I still believe a breakout in gold is imminent.
(Edited to change profit percentage)
My profit for June futures trading was about 38%. June was a little disappointing as I had expected gold to take off by mid-month, but it has been mired in the 1230-1250 price range lately. My outlook hasn't changed, I still believe a breakout in gold is imminent.
(Edited to change profit percentage)
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I knew it would happen.
As far as the last question on the June thread: "how will gold do in a double dip?"
It should do fine, especially if currencies continue to get hammered. Hyperinflation comes when currencies are in crisis and when business conditions stink. We have plenty of the latter and a nice does of the former. Slack demand in the consumer arena matters little in this scenario.
roadrunner
Sometimes these become rising wedges. You may just be right.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
2. Stocks-lower trading range...lower highs and lower lows.
a. watch for fireworks when the 50dma crosses the 200dma on the major averages. The S&P500 is just days away.
b. watching from the sidelines, 90% cash at this time.
3. Good luck to all in July....fasten your seat belts.
(with a little PMs on the side)
Camelot
In an e-mail to a GATA supporter today, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission member Bart Chilton wrote that the financial regulation legislation pending in Congress, described in the report below, would require the commission to set position limits in all commodities of finite supply, including precious metals,
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<< <i>these pullbacks are shallower and shallower... The breakout is imminent
Sometimes these become rising wedges. You may just be right. >>
I love rising wedges....
Also closed 1/2 of copper shorts. Made 50%. Rule #3. "A bird in the hand....."
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>At 49% profit per month, I must ask you - what are your fees? >>
I'm not at a point I would consider offering any services for payment... Keep in mind that I'm playing with highly leveraged futures, so it's not hard to make that much profit, and it's also easy to lose sgnificant chunks as I have done in the past. I've been playing gold with a positive bias, so I'm going to do well as long as gold keeps moving up. If I had posted results from Dec-Feb you guys would either feel sorry for me or think I'm an idiot. I plan to continue to post my monthly results regardless or whether positive or negative.
And to be honest for the great month that June had, I should have done better. I lost some smaller amounts here and there trying to eek out some extra gains and over-position myself for the breakout move that didn't come.
The low 1210's appear to be a good bottom for the near term, and a great buying opportunity. Tuesday is the next day on the radar for a significant move.
Hard not to take 5.3% in a day. Only sold 1/2. Gold has broken the 50dma and uptrend from March. Should at least test the May low.
Big down days like this are death for futures accounts if on the wrong side.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Congrats PC, hope you make money this month.
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
With all those gravestone doji candlesticks on the short ETF's (SRS, TZA, QID, SKF, FAZ, etc.) one would think that this first wave is over. Curiously though, DZZ and ZSL are just tall white candles with no shadows...just like the red candles for GLD/SLV....no down shadows on such large candles is somewhat odd. More stomping to come on the PM's? Also odd that the volume on GLD today was only 40% of the 12/4/09 drop. If one looks between then and now, there are 12 days where volume was the same or higher....and today was nearly a $50 move from peak to bottom. GSR now tracking in a channel from 67-72. Like $VIX, GSR made a much higher move today and then backed way off.
Sentiment indicator? I didn't see one single gold thread on the open forum about gold's big drop today. I don't think this has ever happened on such a large down day (-$40). Amazing restraint....or is it just indifference (ie seen that, done that, move on)? Of course it's only 5:00 pm EST so there is still more time to get a post up.
roadrunner
I see a huge collapse in the coming months.
Huge deflationary flush like 2008 and then followed by the giant printing press opening up to full throttle.
The problem is the two events are spaced out from one another. You get the huge asset sale to get out of any debt to raise cash that is further devalued by the giant printing press that starts up within weeks.
Sell Gold & Silver now, Buy after the collapse.
TheScenario
THE DEFLATION SCRIPT
Pay attention to the LACK OF a Federal BUDGET being passed for Oct. 1, 2010. This is a calculated delay by House and Senate Leadership in order to allow a Lame-Duck Congress to arrive back after November 3 to pass ANYTHING THEY WANT BEFORE House and Senate TERMS EXPIRE! It is diabolical and could make the Socialist takeover complete.
Impeachment in January 2011 becomes the ONLY option because no one can wait another 2 years.
Unfortunately, yup.
I didn't see one single gold thread on the open forum about gold's big drop today
Apathy is a bull market's swan song.
I actually nibbled on a few equities today. Market expecting a very bad jobs report. Im hoping it is only bad. Give the market a break, it is this great country's birthday afterall.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
edit to add- It is encouraging to see the dollar can pounded for a change now that Europe is deemed safe : ) Gold and the dollar were the whipping boys.................The stock market should have been up as risk trades should have been envogue. Strange action.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Thursday's move dealt a big blow to my account, and I did end up reducing my positions and taking some losses. I expected it to hold up in the low 1210's, and it was good to see it get back up to 1210 today.
roadrunner
3 month daily. Lot's of room to drop
3 year weekly. Getting interesting
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
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Buying gold if it gets to 1150-1125 range.
<< <i>I've been waiting for the 1190-1150 range. Didn't think it would come this soon. Buying silver if it gets into the 16's.
Buying gold if it gets to 1150-1125 range. >>
I'm with you. Silver seems stuck in a trading range IMO between 16s and 19s. It takes nerve to buy when these look like they're falling outta bed and then selling into run ups, but that's been the best play for a long time now.
Silver trying to hold the 200dma. It will lose its grip.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'll take the other side and say that gold is not going to fall below the last important low of $1160-$1166. I still think there is one more leg waiting to bust out...when most everyone is expecting more downside. The action in that 5th leg was not indicative of a blowoff top like the earlier runs to $1007 and $1226. I'm thinking gold's got more gas. The Hulburt sentiment index supports that theory as well. Gold topped at $1265 and even at $1252 the first time on relatively low sentiment.
roadrunner
The 200dma for gold is still rising. In a few weeks it will be in the 1150-1160 area. Very easily can test the 200dma within 2 weeks.
More importantly, my momo indicators which I have developed over 20 years and are very reliable, did not confirm the recent test to new highs and are now turning lower.
Added---The real "line in the sand" is the uptrend line currently at about 1140 which starts from the Jan 09 low. I think if this line is broken then the 200dma--which is trending just below--will be merely a speed bump.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm going to steal this chart from a newsletter I get since my charts don't go back this far. How's this for parabolic? And the move's not done...
How's this for parabolic? And the move's not done
To paraphrase Roadrunner, how can you be so sure?
I mentioned 8 months ago that gold will end 2010 in the red. Im comfortable with that prediction.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Massive Drain Of COMEX Silver Inventories Continues
This article by Trendsman might be a bit over the top but it's the 3 charts inside I find interesting. While gold stocks have made up 20-32% of the stock market from 1921-1982, they currently only make up <1% of the total market cap. That's a bubble?
Some interesting gold charts
In looking over the GDX chart I can't help but get the feeling that it's been forming an ascending triangle running into the 55 resistance line for the 3rd time recently, 4th time since 2008. The overally weekly chart forms a fairly symetrical V with the 55 level at the top. It's going to need to fall hard through the 200dma to break this trend. Took small positions in GDXJ and GDX for a trade. It just seems that gold stocks are ready to bounce for a bit, even if only to recommence another leg down next week. It just came close to touching the 200 dma which has contained the GDX drops for quite a while now. BB's turning towards flat again and Aroon10 maxed out in GDXJ. Grains, ng, base metals have already been moving up. Gold seems to be lagging.
GDX daily and weekly chart
roadrunner
I dont really think the charts in that article mean much. Gold mining shares were a much bigger component of the overall market in the past---AAPL itself probably has a higher market cap than the entire industry-, and those comparisons were made when the overall stock markets were completely destroyed. The markets were trading for around book value in those years. So if the DOW goes to 2500 and the mining shares simply hold their own, you will probably see similar percentages. None of the other charts tell me that miners are going to go higher---maybe they just wont go down?
The better trade according to that article would be to short the market. At least then you are making money, rather than just holding your own.
Closed GOOG position yest morn and reentered at close yest. Still holding GS. Closed XOM. Still holding SHLD---pos.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
In the last 10 years...
Gold has hit a low in the month of June or July of every year such that gold did not close lower than that for the rest of the year. The lone exception was 2008 where gold hit $1000 for the first time in March.
Gold stocks are about as oversold as they get - a good buy opportunity at these levels.
roadrunner
Swissy
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
What???!!! You looking at the same stocks as me? NEM, ABX, even GDX is only down 10%. Look at 2008 and you'll see oversold.
Percyb---dont presume anything. July could easily take out the June, May and possibly even the Apr low. Then what?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>That sneaky Swiss Franc vs the Dollar has clawed back. Interesting V chart..............MJ
Swissy >>
Not a bad trade. SELL!! 94.63
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>What???!!! You looking at the same stocks as me? NEM, ABX, even GDX is only down 10%. Look at 2008 and you'll see oversold. >>
The XAU. Yes, there are exceptions.
<< <i>
<< <i>What???!!! You looking at the same stocks as me? NEM, ABX, even GDX is only down 10%. Look at 2008 and you'll see oversold. >>
The XAU. Yes, there are exceptions. >>
You call that oversold? I see absolutely nothing about the XAU chart that says oversold. You aint seen nothing yet.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>You call that oversold? I see absolutely nothing about the XAU chart that says oversold. You aint seen nothing yet.
What indicators are you looking at?
As of yesterday, price was only down 7% in last 3 weeks. For comparison, and I know unrelated business but just to demonstrate "oversold", several retail names JCP, SHLD were down 25-30% in same time. GE was down 16%. X down 19%. XOM and INTC and CSCO down 13%.
RSI was 46--I wouldnt say as oversold as it could get until it was in the 20's.
Price is still around the moving averages. Make it 30% below the 50dma and I'ld call it oversold.
MACD has just broken below 0. Not way oversold until well into the negatives.
ADX is neutral.
I also have a few proprietary momo indicators that I've developed over the past 20 years that are nowhere near oversold.
If XAU is 120 or so in the next 3-4 weeks, then I'ld say its as oversold as it gets.
You might be looking at the very, very short term stochastics--5 day basis--which was very low, but that was corrected with yesterdays $5 pop.
Look at the chart of SHLD. Thats oversold. But very oversold is a sign of distress. Look for countertrend bounces, nothing more.
Closed GOOG puts this morn after a $20 run. I like that stock.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The price oscillators and momentum indicators I watch all show XAU is about as low as it typically gets before turning around, although they could go lower but only typically do during extreme selloffs like last Jan & Feb.
Some interesting articles:
Companies Brace for End of Cheap Made-in-China Era
U.S. marks 3rd-largest, single-day debt increase
Saw some graphs in a newsletter I get, thought they were worth posting here. This first one compares the current move in gold to the recent Nasdaq bubble and real estate bubble. Gold's only getting started, and not even halfway to it's peak if the scale of the move compares to the other moves.
This other chart compares the US Debt to the price of gold... interesting isn't it? And we've all heard the projections for US Debt to hit $15T in the next couple of years and $20T in 10 years.
<< <i>The SP500 even has room to continue the rally slightly on Friday >>
Elliot wave seems to be working pretty well with the S&P... latest rally was to 1070ish then another fall to at least 1010ish 'very soon' after.
Consolidation -- bear pennant -- would be short lived.
jmho; and we'll soon see.
I've enjoyed reading this thread. Thanks
<< <i>Gold stocks are about as oversold as they get - a good buy opportunity at these levels.
What???!!! You looking at the same stocks as me? NEM, ABX, even GDX is only down 10%. Look at 2008 and you'll see oversold.
Percyb---dont presume anything. July could easily take out the June, May and possibly even the Apr low. Then what? >>
Coh...You're correct in saying that it could, but if the past is any indication, that's a 25% shot. I'm still thinking we'll trend up, but again, that's my ho. Good luck to all here, by the way. I'd like to see everyone make $$ which ever side of the market you may be on.
It also appears that more weakness could be in store for the USD, so that should support gold. I'm very confident that the near term bottom is in for gold (although we certainly could test 1190 one more time), and we could see gold take off at least back to 1250 next week or possibly the following week.
With stable-to-upward momentum for gold and stocks in the near term, gold stocks should continue to recover.
The ECRI leading indicator keeps plunging. We've probably got another good month or two for stocks where we'll probably finally see SP500 at 1350, and then stocks are probably done.
roadrunner
<< <i>Gold appears to be tracing out a perfect 5 wave pattern over the past month.....currently in the 4th leg moving up towards the bottom of the 1st leg ($1229). The 3rd leg was a perfect 5 waves and the steepest and deepest of the group. Once leg 4 completes within 1-5 days I'd expect a 5th leg down to complete this monthly downtrend. Wave 4 appears to have completed 4 legs already so I'd lean towards 1 more day to complete that pattern. >>
It would be helpful to see a chart of what you're referring to, I have a hard time making out what you're describing when you talk about all of those legs, not sure if others have the same problem either... I suppose the timeframe of the chart makes a big difference. In looking at legs, here's what I am seeing on the daily chart:
<< <i>
<< <i>That sneaky Swiss Franc vs the Dollar has clawed back. Interesting V chart..............MJ
Swissy >>
Not a bad trade. SELL!! 94.63 >>
Opened today at 93.20.
Not a big profit (about 33 oz of silver), but since I was the only open interest in the entire series I wasnt about to go hog wild. Thanks for the heads up MJ, that Fosters is on me.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Price is not a great overbought/sold indicator, IMO. Prices do not have to hit lows or highs to make them good trades and indicate turns. >>
The comment was "as oversold as it can get". How can something be oversold/bought if you dont consider price? When I buy something, I trade the price, not the moving average or stochastic or ABC leg. Im not talking about new highs or lows, but I want to see something down more than 10% in 3 weeks to call it as oversold as it can get. Price is the only thing that matters, IMO.
$XAU bounced up to the flat 50dma Friday and today. Nothing oversold about that at all.
Gold also bounced up to the 50dma. Nothing particulary exciting about the pattern.
BTW---Roadrunner, im with PC on the leg thing. Too confusing and constructed for me. I prefer my legs to be on frogs or ladies.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'll try to include some short term charts in the future. Here's how I see the legs so far. Gold likes to follow 5 wave patterns when it traces out an ABC. This would still leave a B-C to follow once the A leg completes.
A leg:
1: 6/21 to 6/23 (peaked at $1266)
2: 6/23 to 6/28
3. 6/28 to 7/7 ($1186 bottom after 5 impulse legs down).
4. 7/7 to ?
5. ???? frog jumping out of the frying pan to complete 5 waves
$gold chart
roadrunner
Are we talking cartography, anthropology or oceanography?
Camelot