Charts are breaking down for gold and silver. Looks like a serious pullback in the works.
Yup. The intial cracks were seen in a weakish broadening top pattern made last Tues-Thurs in GLD, GDX, and GDXJ. It was more obvious in Goldcorp (GG). Today was options expiration and tomorrow are gold/silver futures. Bond auctions through Thursday as well. If the pattern holds basically to the norm, gold pulls out of this around by Thursday afternoon. Banksters just taking advantage of opportunity.
Noticed that the dollar today is also showing a very distinct broadening top pattern that just completed which gave some extra oomph to gold's drop today.
I don't see ample time imo to get to $1050 on this cycle that's now 25 weeks from the Feb cycle low. Typically the cycles have been nominally lasting 20 weeks. And there's some very heavy resistance to get through in the $1100-$1145 range. $1145 is the 200dma. Gold closed at around the $1161 which was the January high and a swing low in early May. It also conveniently forms a neckline to a multi-month cup formation. This will be the 4th time this level has been tested this year. One more day of futures expiration assuming the bankers didn't get it all their shorts processed today.
I don't see 5 waves completed yet in this current 4 day GDX down move. Then again the bottom could have been put in already and this is just the first reaction to a new upmove. GDXJ has really only started down today. Sometimes the $CDNX index (mostly Canadian mining juniors) shows trends a little more clearly than the whipsawed GDX or HUI. It may give clues that GDX or GLD don't. The chart is sort of a cross between the S&P 500 and HUI.
<< <i>Charts are breaking down for gold and silver. Looks like a serious pullback in the works.
Yup. The intial cracks were seen in a weakish broadening top pattern made last Tues-Thurs in GLD, GDX, and GDXJ. It was more obvious in Goldcorp (GG). Today was options expiration and tomorrow are gold/silver futures. Bond auctions through Thursday as well. If the pattern holds basically to the norm, gold pulls out of this around by Thursday afternoon. Banksters just taking advantage of opportunity.
Noticed that the dollar today is also showing a very distinct broadening top pattern that just completed which gave some extra oomph to gold's drop today.
1. Remove bias from your thinking. 2. Remove emotion from your thinking. 3. Remove "conviction" from your thinking.
The Thomson article is hilarious. Usually the more one writes, the greater the tale. This is no exception.
The gold selloff of the last few days has been widely telegraphed, yet few have seen it. Ask yourselves why. All momo indicators on GDX and XAU look like poop. $1125-1144 could be a strong floor. But if it does not hold, I may have to extend my period of a flat/down gold price for another year, well into 2011.
On July 1, I wrote the following....The premuim for 64 Saints dropped $150 last month because 10,000 pieces came out of Europe--or so im told. If $15-18 million worth of supply can knock 10% off MS64 Saints, just think what a 1/2 a billion coming out of GLD could do.
Just read this today...Meanwhile, holdings at SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 113.68, +0.17, +0.15%) , the world's largest exchange-traded fund backed by gold, fell to 1,301 metric tons on Monday. Holdings have steadily fallen since the fund hit a record 1,320 metric tons late last month.
That amounts to about 610,000 ounces at an average price of $1200 is $733 million. From the peak on June 28 gold is down about 8.3%.
The gold selloff of the last few days has been widely telegraphed, yet few have seen it
I called another down leg last Thursday following a broadening top pattern completion. The other short term momentum indicators weren't so good either and were just starting to bow over. I was fully expecting to see a good buying opportunity by Tuesday...but was not counting on it. When they come, they come. And they have come.
I'll admit to one bias, that gold is in a bull market and the long term trend is up. Now whether gold will be $600, $800, $1000, $1200 or $1400 by year's end is up for grabs. I'll buy on hard dips and try to sell on strength. Thomson makes for good reading. He has his ways, others have theirs. Though hilarious, he's been on the right side of every significant move down and move up since the $690 bottom, buying weakness and selling strength. That in a nutshell is his message. Maybe Sinclair, Thomson, Fekete, Schiff, Katz, Weir, Bevan, and others aren't looneys. It's entirely possible they just might understand the behind the scenes game being played by the Treasury and Central/TBTF Bankers. In 2004 most around the Forum thought otc derivatives were a non-issue. Now they are "the" issue and the focal point of the financial crisis. That which is deemed absurdity today often becomes fact tomorrow. Most of those guys were on top of it back in 2004 or earlier.
Fwiw I think the momentum on GDX isn't all that bad. I don't see why it can't be turning. GDXJ and CDNX probably show things better. GDX hung at the Euro bash-fest way too long and is probably going to get some last licks taken. But a number of the juniors (and GDXJ, CDNX) show decent cosolidation patterns where momentum is turning up. A number of bullish candles as well. GDX may follow those guys shortly. Liquidity has for now returned to the market and the smaller miners are getting the attention. The big volume spike on GDX today, as well as the GDX:SPY ratio tends to tell me that this was a possible final capitulation on this move while running the sell stops during options expiration. Those kinds of spikes usually happen during peaks, not bottoms. And we certainly don't have peaks this month. I still think the bankers will try to run stops another time Wed or Thurs so miners at best might move sideways here. I nibbled on some AUY and KGC today. But I'm also concerned that with commodities look to be peaking or peaked (oil, gas stocks, ags, base metal miners, etc.) as well as the S&P, how are gold stocks going to move against that wave if gold is falling as well? Gold will need to hang. And that's what I'm going to be looking on the next day or two. In any event I am buying some weakness here and have no guarantee that things aren't going down further. The only thing that one can be sure of is when things have hit a lower price resistance area such as right now. I'd still like to see the 44-45 GDX gap filled but there's no guarantees that will happen this week. Gold when compared to bonds, stocks, commodities, and just about anything else this past 6 weeks has been down, down and further down. It has to flip back sometime.
GLD inventory peaked around 1360-1370 tons so it has declined even more than that. During the 2008 deleveraging GLD inventory fell 40% or around 350 tons. We're a long ways from that plus we're nearly into August. There have been rumors that Paulson could be a seller as he fills redemption requests. He and others had some big stakes in GLD. GLD has hurt the miner's performance since 2004. Should it ever be found that GLD is cooking the books, the miners will explode.
The additional pressure pushing gold down briefly to a JS "Angel" at $1156 today really didn't do anything to the gold stocks as most of them moved up a small amount. My GDX/GDXJ spidey senses are starting to tingle. I nibbled a bit more today on AUY and KGC. I'm not saying they can't go lower from here in the next month or two, but a bounce from here seems likely imo. Yamana in particular is scrounging around longer term support in the low 9's. I like it's 5 wave pattern down from mid-June, it's abc from May, it's larger ABC from December (8 months), and it's somewhat symmetrical V shape going back to August 2008. Yamana reports earnings late Wed. and they've been like Jeckyll and Hyde the past year with glitches showing up in their quarterly reports. This 8 month downtrend is the longest one-direction move that the stock has had in over 3 yrs.
Last bond auction is Thursday and expiration is over. If I were a banker I'd want to get prices going back up for a bit to cash in on my newly purchased longs and push sentiment back the other way.
An interesting chart from Jesse. Note that gold's recent move up never made it close to the upper channel but only to the 1/2 channel line. Since when does a real bull move in gold end exhaustive rather than in parabolic fashion? The lower level 2 waves both touched the lower band a 2nd time before heading up to the highest channel line. The current retest of the lower channel line looks like the first 2 waves before they headed up for good. In the case of the first wave it's cup fell short of being completed. In this last move the cup was over-extended by $40/oz. Could that overextended cup still be part of the overall correction back from December? (ie an expanded B wave). Because except for gold following the Euro up in June, other markers like GDX and SLV essentially put in even cup formations from the December highs indicating they were probably corrective in nature. Basically, the spacing of those 3 circles doesn't look right. How does that chart play out if the move from March 2008 through August 2009 was all corrective? (ie ABC with an ending 5 wave triangle for C). Food for thought. In any event, be prepared for either direction.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The dollar and gold sort of tanked together over the past month and a half. Does that mean they are soon to be going back up together while Ye Olde SM pulls back?
July 29 (Reuters) - A sharp drop of bullion holdings in the world's biggest gold-backed exchange traded fund combined with a loss of COMEX open interest indicated investors are moving out of the precious metal into other assets such as the equity markets. Trading volume of U.S. COMEX gold futures also rose to an all-time high on Wednesday, driven by a combination of an option expiration and contract rollover. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), often called GLD because of its ticker symbol, posted its biggest one-day tonnage drop since April 2008, as holdings fell 18.55 tonnes to 1,282.28 tonnes on Wednesday. "That means fund managers are deleveraging out of gold and the bond markets and going into the stock markets," said COMEX gold floor trader Jonathan Jossen.....the loss in open interest along with the sharp outflow in GLD holdings showed liquidation in gold into other markets due to asset allocations by investors, said George Gero, vice president at RBC.
Another explanation is that the commercials finally covered all the shorts they need to. This last move will probably drop the short to long ratio from 2.03 to 1.9, maybe even 1.85 which is full blown BEAR territory, equivalent to levels not seen since the 2nd half of 2008. Net shorts will probably fall from 215K to around 200K, to levels not seen since spring 2009. The huge spike in panic selling/buying on GDX Wednesday was another sign of capitulation nearing or already occuring. This comex action just might help to support that reasoning. The short to long ratio falling to under 2.0 is a total gift for the bankers so that they can reload. The funds will happily take on short bets here "knowing" that gold is headed to $1000 or less.
The Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index was recently at 9.2% which was its low for the year. It tends to reach 55-80% during bull runs. Some previous strong corrections have ended in the -17% to -10% range. Sentiment this low is indicating bullishness.
Well, let's look at it this way...........Gold and the dollar have traded basically in lock step the past six weeks and both are about down the same percent from their recent highs. They are BOTH are sneaking up on both of their 200dma's and would in theory both hit them about the same time. Curiously both of these 200dma's represent pivots. Gold the other white meat and Cheeze Whiz
Gold has a nice pivot @ around $1140ish
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>The dollar and gold sort of tanked together over the past month and a half. Does that mean they are soon to be going back up together while Ye Olde SM pulls back?
roadrunner >>
Ye Olde SM will slowly rise to 12,700 IMO. Gold will be in the 1050-1150 range until November.
1. Remove bias from your thinking. 2. Remove emotion from your thinking. 3. Remove "conviction" from your thinking. >>
So who is that aimed at?
I'm not sure exactly what you're saying here, but you have exhibited the same things you are observing about the rest of us (assuming that you including me in this comment).
I did call a significant move that I expected to be up but it turned out to be down. That happens. We don't all use the same indicators, and not all indicators work all of the time.
I think you misinterpret RR and my own bullishness as emotional and/or convictional when it is not... at least for me anyway. The charts still clearly show that we're at the beginning of the final stage of a parabolic move. That long term view, based on charts is going to bias my outlook... it almost has to, because eventually you have to reconcile short, medium, and long term views. There's no emotion involved in my calls, and I don't see emotion in RR's posts either. The parabolic move is what I see, and that's what I expect the general long term trend to follow, which is going to affect my calls in other time frames. When the charts show that we are near the end of the parabolic move, I will be on the short wagon. If the charts show we're no longer on track for a parabolic move, I'll change my outlook. That hasn't happened yet.
I believe your analysis says that we are in a trading range that you expect to maintain for a while and that you expect gold to be lower at the end of the year. I wouldn't say your predictions are biased or based on emotion just because you don't see the same things I do.
It's the end of the month, so I'll start the August thread with my an update on how I see things.
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>Charts are breaking down for gold and silver. Looks like a serious pullback in the works. >>
Pullback-yes
Serious- I doubt it >>
I agree. I actually think today is going to be a wild day, with today establishing the bottom for a long time to come.
Yup. The intial cracks were seen in a weakish broadening top pattern made last Tues-Thurs in GLD, GDX, and GDXJ. It was more obvious in Goldcorp (GG). Today was options expiration and tomorrow are gold/silver futures. Bond auctions through Thursday as well. If the pattern holds basically to the norm, gold pulls out of this around by Thursday afternoon. Banksters just taking advantage of opportunity.
Noticed that the dollar today is also showing a very distinct broadening top pattern that just completed which gave some extra oomph to gold's drop today.
Thomson on derivatives and the coming paper money crisis
roadrunner
I don't see 5 waves completed yet in this current 4 day GDX down move. Then again the bottom could have been put in already and this is just the first reaction to a new upmove. GDXJ has really only started down today. Sometimes the $CDNX index (mostly Canadian mining juniors) shows trends a little more clearly than the whipsawed GDX or HUI. It may give clues that GDX or GLD don't. The chart is sort of a cross between the S&P 500 and HUI.
$cdnx chart
Video of world's rarest coin for sale...1976 Ike dollar
roadrunner
<< <i>Charts are breaking down for gold and silver. Looks like a serious pullback in the works.
Yup. The intial cracks were seen in a weakish broadening top pattern made last Tues-Thurs in GLD, GDX, and GDXJ. It was more obvious in Goldcorp (GG). Today was options expiration and tomorrow are gold/silver futures. Bond auctions through Thursday as well. If the pattern holds basically to the norm, gold pulls out of this around by Thursday afternoon. Banksters just taking advantage of opportunity.
Noticed that the dollar today is also showing a very distinct broadening top pattern that just completed which gave some extra oomph to gold's drop today.
Thomson on derivatives and the coming paper money crisis
roadrunner >>
You guys will make good traders when you...
1. Remove bias from your thinking.
2. Remove emotion from your thinking.
3. Remove "conviction" from your thinking.
The Thomson article is hilarious. Usually the more one writes, the greater the tale. This is no exception.
The gold selloff of the last few days has been widely telegraphed, yet few have seen it. Ask yourselves why. All momo indicators on GDX and XAU look like poop. $1125-1144 could be a strong floor. But if it does not hold, I may have to extend my period of a flat/down gold price for another year, well into 2011.
On July 1, I wrote the following....The premuim for 64 Saints dropped $150 last month because 10,000 pieces came out of Europe--or so im told. If $15-18 million worth of supply can knock 10% off MS64 Saints, just think what a 1/2 a billion coming out of GLD could do.
Just read this today...Meanwhile, holdings at SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 113.68, +0.17, +0.15%) , the world's largest exchange-traded fund backed by gold, fell to 1,301 metric tons on Monday. Holdings have steadily fallen since the fund hit a record 1,320 metric tons late last month.
That amounts to about 610,000 ounces at an average price of $1200 is $733 million. From the peak on June 28 gold is down about 8.3%.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I called another down leg last Thursday following a broadening top pattern completion. The other short term momentum indicators weren't so good either and were just starting to bow over. I was fully expecting to see a good buying opportunity by Tuesday...but was not counting on it. When they come, they come. And they have come.
I'll admit to one bias, that gold is in a bull market and the long term trend is up. Now whether gold will be $600, $800, $1000, $1200 or $1400 by year's end is up for grabs. I'll buy on hard dips and try to sell on strength. Thomson makes for good reading. He has his ways, others have theirs. Though hilarious, he's been on the right side of every significant move down and move up since the $690 bottom, buying weakness and selling strength. That in a nutshell is his message. Maybe Sinclair, Thomson, Fekete, Schiff, Katz, Weir, Bevan, and others aren't looneys. It's entirely possible they just might understand the behind the scenes game being played by the Treasury and Central/TBTF Bankers. In 2004 most around the Forum thought otc derivatives were a non-issue. Now they are "the" issue and the focal point of the financial crisis. That which is deemed absurdity today often becomes fact tomorrow. Most of those guys were on top of it back in 2004 or earlier.
Fwiw I think the momentum on GDX isn't all that bad. I don't see why it can't be turning. GDXJ and CDNX probably show things better. GDX hung at the Euro bash-fest way too long and is probably going to get some last licks taken. But a number of the juniors (and GDXJ, CDNX) show decent cosolidation patterns where momentum is turning up. A number of bullish candles as well. GDX may follow those guys shortly. Liquidity has for now returned to the market and the smaller miners are getting the attention. The big volume spike on GDX today, as well as the GDX:SPY ratio tends to tell me that this was a possible final capitulation on this move while running the sell stops during options expiration. Those kinds of spikes usually happen during peaks, not bottoms. And we certainly don't have peaks this month. I still think the bankers will try to run stops another time Wed or Thurs so miners at best might move sideways here. I nibbled on some AUY and KGC today. But I'm also concerned that with commodities look to be peaking or peaked (oil, gas stocks, ags, base metal miners, etc.) as well as the S&P, how are gold stocks going to move against that wave if gold is falling as well? Gold will need to hang. And that's what I'm going to be looking on the next day or two. In any event I am buying some weakness here and have no guarantee that things aren't going down further. The only thing that one can be sure of is when things have hit a lower price resistance area such as right now. I'd still like to see the 44-45 GDX gap filled but there's no guarantees that will happen this week. Gold when compared to bonds, stocks, commodities, and just about anything else this past 6 weeks has been down, down and further down. It has to flip back sometime.
GLD inventory peaked around 1360-1370 tons so it has declined even more than that. During the 2008 deleveraging GLD inventory fell 40% or around 350 tons. We're a long ways from that plus we're nearly into August. There have been rumors that Paulson could be a seller as he fills redemption requests. He and others had some big stakes in GLD. GLD has hurt the miner's performance since 2004. Should it ever be found that GLD is cooking the books, the miners will explode.
roadrunner
AUY
Last bond auction is Thursday and expiration is over. If I were a banker I'd want to get prices going back up for a bit to cash in on my newly purchased longs and push sentiment back the other way.
An interesting chart from Jesse. Note that gold's recent move up never made it close to the upper channel but only to the 1/2 channel line. Since when does a real bull move in gold end exhaustive rather than in parabolic fashion? The lower level 2 waves both touched the lower band a 2nd time before heading up to the highest channel line. The current retest of the lower channel line looks like the first 2 waves before they headed up for good. In the case of the first wave it's cup fell short of being completed. In this last move the cup was over-extended by $40/oz. Could that overextended cup still be part of the overall correction back from December? (ie an expanded B wave). Because except for gold following the Euro up in June, other markers like GDX and SLV essentially put in even cup formations from the December highs indicating they were probably corrective in nature. Basically, the spacing of those 3 circles doesn't look right. How does that chart play out if the move from March 2008 through August 2009 was all corrective? (ie ABC with an ending 5 wave triangle for C). Food for thought. In any event, be prepared for either direction.
Gold chart from Jesse's Cafe Americain
Moment of truth coming around the bend
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
July 29 (Reuters) - A sharp drop of bullion holdings in the world's biggest gold-backed exchange traded fund combined with a loss of COMEX open interest indicated investors are moving out of the precious metal into other assets such as the equity markets. Trading volume of U.S. COMEX gold futures also rose to an all-time high on Wednesday, driven by a combination of an option expiration and contract rollover. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), often called GLD because of its ticker symbol, posted its biggest one-day tonnage drop since April 2008, as holdings fell 18.55 tonnes to 1,282.28 tonnes on Wednesday. "That means fund managers are deleveraging out of gold and the bond markets and going into the stock markets," said COMEX gold floor trader Jonathan Jossen.....the loss in open interest along with the sharp outflow in GLD holdings showed liquidation in gold into other markets due to asset allocations by investors, said George Gero, vice president at RBC.
Another explanation is that the commercials finally covered all the shorts they need to. This last move will probably drop the short to long ratio from 2.03 to 1.9, maybe even 1.85 which is full blown BEAR territory, equivalent to levels not seen since the 2nd half of 2008. Net shorts will probably fall from 215K to around 200K, to levels not seen since spring 2009. The huge spike in panic selling/buying on GDX Wednesday was another sign of capitulation nearing or already occuring. This comex action just might help to support that reasoning. The short to long ratio falling to under 2.0 is a total gift for the bankers so that they can reload. The funds will happily take on short bets here "knowing" that gold is headed to $1000 or less.
The Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index was recently at 9.2% which was its low for the year. It tends to reach 55-80% during bull runs. Some previous strong corrections have ended in the -17% to -10% range. Sentiment this low is indicating bullishness.
roadrunner
Gold has a nice pivot @ around $1140ish
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>The dollar and gold sort of tanked together over the past month and a half. Does that mean they are soon to be going back up together while Ye Olde SM pulls back?
roadrunner >>
Ye Olde SM will slowly rise to 12,700 IMO.
Gold will be in the 1050-1150 range until November.
Just a guess
<< <i>You guys will make good traders when you...
1. Remove bias from your thinking.
2. Remove emotion from your thinking.
3. Remove "conviction" from your thinking. >>
So who is that aimed at?
I'm not sure exactly what you're saying here, but you have exhibited the same things you are observing about the rest of us (assuming that you including me in this comment).
I did call a significant move that I expected to be up but it turned out to be down. That happens. We don't all use the same indicators, and not all indicators work all of the time.
I think you misinterpret RR and my own bullishness as emotional and/or convictional when it is not... at least for me anyway. The charts still clearly show that we're at the beginning of the final stage of a parabolic move. That long term view, based on charts is going to bias my outlook... it almost has to, because eventually you have to reconcile short, medium, and long term views. There's no emotion involved in my calls, and I don't see emotion in RR's posts either. The parabolic move is what I see, and that's what I expect the general long term trend to follow, which is going to affect my calls in other time frames. When the charts show that we are near the end of the parabolic move, I will be on the short wagon. If the charts show we're no longer on track for a parabolic move, I'll change my outlook. That hasn't happened yet.
I believe your analysis says that we are in a trading range that you expect to maintain for a while and that you expect gold to be lower at the end of the year. I wouldn't say your predictions are biased or based on emotion just because you don't see the same things I do.
It's the end of the month, so I'll start the August thread with my an update on how I see things.