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2010 is half over. What are your predictions about the hobby for the 2nd half of 2010 and for 2011?
SanctionII
Posts: 11,742 ✭✭✭✭✭
I boldly predict [with the utmost confidence
] that the Langbord suit will not be resolved in 2010 and will drag on into 2011 [at the federal district court level].
I also can only imagine that come 1-1-2011, there will be less disposable/discretionary income available to collectors [due to wide ranging tax increases and new taxes that will become effective on new years day], thus leading to a contraction in the hobby [and a further contraction in the general economy]
] that the Langbord suit will not be resolved in 2010 and will drag on into 2011 [at the federal district court level].I also can only imagine that come 1-1-2011, there will be less disposable/discretionary income available to collectors [due to wide ranging tax increases and new taxes that will become effective on new years day], thus leading to a contraction in the hobby [and a further contraction in the general economy]
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roadrunner
First hags will be over-hyped.
Silver pucks will be rare.
Roadrunner wrote:
There will be increasing activity in 2011 assuming the $600 transaction level that came with the Health Care bill remains in effect. end
Roadrunner I'm still confused about this bill and have not approached my accountant with it so maybe this is a dumb question but do you mean if the bill does not remain in effect?
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
The Mint will increase the 1 oz. Platinum Proof issue to 10,000.
Gold will continue higher and Gold Spouse mintages will continue to be low. Mary Todd Lincoln will be popular. RYK will buy one of the Classic Head Liberty Spouses.
Silver Hockey pucks will be heavy and bulky, and people will be dumbfounded about how to store them.
I knew it would happen.
The coin market will continue to get more and more selective. Coins that meet the strict new standards will continue to sell well. Coins that don't meet the new standards, and that will be most of them, will languish in dealer stocks until financial necessity forces their sale at much lower prices.
The number of active coin collectors will drop. Some of the decline will be caused by an aging collector population and some will be caused by economic necessity.
The National Parks quarters will be a bust with little interest evident from the general public.
The $600 IRS reporting requirement will, if it is not revoked, cause serious problems throughout the economy, not just in the coin market. It is a great example of really bad legislation that got into law because politicians are desperate for tax dollars.
B&M dealers will become more dependent than ever on bullion and jewelry sales for their income. Numismatic coins will become a sideline for many dealers.
Several hoards of numismatic material will hit the market due to the deaths of the hoarders and the desire of the heirs to raise cash. Other hoards will hit the market because of financial distress on the part of the hoarders. Some coins that had previously been considered scarce will be revealed to be rather common.
eBay will continue to deteriorate as potential bidders, fed up with huge numbers of overpriced "buy it now" offerings and few true auctions, just stop looking at the site.
An economic event, caused by the continued use of questionable accounting practices by both business and government, will stagger the economy. This event could originate anywhere in the world. (No, this is not the tv show EVENT.)
The "coin doctor" lawsuit will be settled out of court. The settlement will not be made public.
291fifth will be lambasted for being negative.
Certain dishonest hypocritical republicans will be upset because now it will not be as easy to cheat the governtment as it was before. They will be bothered that their tax money will go to repairing highways, funding the court system, miitary and social security. Then they will get over it, when they realize that the federal income tax rate is less than half what it was under the Eisenhower administration. The coin market will decline as individuals will have less discretionary income.
people will tighten spending again.
A true story. I was looking at the Whitlow site and saw a nice very pleasant 1796 dime in PCGS/CAC AU-58. I read the price to be $2125.50. I thought hmmmm, that is not too bad but the coin looked more like an AU-55 (that is my job as a potential buyer to knock it down!) so that I would think about it some more.........today, I said to myself, hmmmm, let me look at the dime again.
Whoa, the price was $21,250.00!!
That puts me in a funk and now I don't want to buy at all. What was I thinking????
This is the basis of my prediction in that as gold prices rise, more and more collectors (other than the ones who already own gold) are going to feel priced out which will limit the demand for collector coins.
So the two forces (explained below) will keep collector and investor type coins rising at a very slight level with demand being essentially flat.
Force 1 - rising interest in collector and investor coins from outsiders as hard money and or alternative investing
Force 2 - static interest in collector and investor coins from insiders as they see more and more coins priced slightly higher hoping for falling prices.
I do believe that we are going to see further big price declines in real estate and a general lowering of the wealth of Americans. I cannot believe how many homeowners are strapped out and are one foot away from foreclosure. I see a general decline in the maintenance of homes including formerly $500K plus homes. They look ok from the street but when you walk to the house, you realize how badly our homeowners are maintaining their homes. The landscaping is not being maintained and the porches are rotting, for example.
With the increases in taxes that are coming the incentive to work will be reduced. Pure and simple. Higher taxes, less incentive to work, lower taxes more incentive to work all things remaining equal.
This country is headed in the direction of an Argentina style economy while our hobby will hold its ground but in a increasingly bleak overall outside landscape.
But it will be ultimately be a good thing as we slowly pay off our private debts waiting for the governments to finally understand that it needs to live within its means.
I will take that bet! ;-)
Some dealers will retire as business for the overall market slows down.
The exceptional dealers get more business while the weaker ones bow out
and will not be replaced by new faces.
The hobby as a whole ages some more.
<< <i>The $600 1099 reporting requirements will have little or no effect on the coin business or anything else, as most citizens are honest and do not care about or fear getting a 1099.
Certain dishonest hypocritical republicans will be upset because now it will not be as easy to cheat the governtment as it was before. They will be bothered that their tax money will go to repairing highways, funding the court system, miitary and social security. Then they will get over it, when they realize that the federal income tax rate is less than half what it was under the Eisenhower administration. The coin market will decline as individuals will have less discretionary income. >>
Wrong. It will HEAVILY impact coin dealers, who will be forced to keep records on every selling customer that walks through the door, including their Social Security number, even if it's a 50 cent purchase, because they just might come back and sell more stuff later in the year...if they do and it adds up to $600 or more, then coin dealers will have to be tax accountants as well and issue 1099s at year's end. Of course if it's less than $600, then they'll have done this all for nothing, but regardless, they will have to keep files containing sensitive data on every single person that they buy from throughout the year. Do you think coin sellers are going to gladly and happily give you their SSN and contact info, not knowing how securely their data is being kept, all because you MIGHT have to send them a 1099? Think about all the ebay transactions in such amounts. Yep, they count too. You still think everyone's going to have a smile on their face giving strangers the means to potentially steal their identity? This has nothing to do with what the current socialist administration chooses to waste their tax money on. It's about turning a major portion of this business (and many others I might add) into a huge cluster.... uh, bomb.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
<< <i>291fifth will be lambasted for being negative.
I will take that bet! ;-) >>