The "Big One" technology hopefully an explaination for those that desire it. Final thought
ocon4008
Posts: 1,703
I think a lot of people do not understand this new technology; please let me try to explain what is happening.
It starts with understanding a cross section; which is a graph of elevation against distance. As you measure along a base line you measure the distance from the base line. Cross sections(or profiles) allow you to see the change across the surface you are measuring. It is like cutting something in half and looking at it in profile; it allows us to look at profiles when cutting something in half is impractical. Say for instance planet Earth or a $100,000 coin.
This technology will collect enough data points on the surface through laser ranging to create an exact model of the surface being scrutinized. The model can then be analyzed to determine the exact distance from the reference plane to any point on the surface of the coin (see sketch).
Once the scan is complete you will be able to create an infinite number of cross sections across the coin. You can place a reference plane either horizontally or vertically to compare coin to coin. These models can be created for every series in every grade with every variety. You will be able to compare wear, strike and other details of coins from like years, series and varieties by comparing the 3D coordinates (distances from the base line) of key points on the surface.
Every nook, cranny, ding, hit and rub will show up in the model. Coupled with the “face recognition” software coin to coin comparisons will be done within seconds. The coins will still have to finalized by a human but it will be a start to ending subjectivity in grading.
The spectral analysis will determine the composition of coin; it will differentiate between metal, putty or other additives to the surface so they will also be visible in the profiles. This will be a significant improvement in detecting doctored coins on the first or subsequent submissions.
This technology is new; it has only been around 10-15 years. This is a new use, and smarter people than me will find new ways to use it in grading coins.
LIDAR
Digital Terrain Modeling
Some helpful references.
Computer generated image of a 3D object.
Now imagine those red and blue lines are 0.0001" apart,
This is a simple answer to a complex situation, but I hope it clears away some brush and help you understand the technology a bit better. Remember this technology was developed by scientists with more initials after their name than the royal family.
It starts with understanding a cross section; which is a graph of elevation against distance. As you measure along a base line you measure the distance from the base line. Cross sections(or profiles) allow you to see the change across the surface you are measuring. It is like cutting something in half and looking at it in profile; it allows us to look at profiles when cutting something in half is impractical. Say for instance planet Earth or a $100,000 coin.
This technology will collect enough data points on the surface through laser ranging to create an exact model of the surface being scrutinized. The model can then be analyzed to determine the exact distance from the reference plane to any point on the surface of the coin (see sketch).
Once the scan is complete you will be able to create an infinite number of cross sections across the coin. You can place a reference plane either horizontally or vertically to compare coin to coin. These models can be created for every series in every grade with every variety. You will be able to compare wear, strike and other details of coins from like years, series and varieties by comparing the 3D coordinates (distances from the base line) of key points on the surface.
Every nook, cranny, ding, hit and rub will show up in the model. Coupled with the “face recognition” software coin to coin comparisons will be done within seconds. The coins will still have to finalized by a human but it will be a start to ending subjectivity in grading.
The spectral analysis will determine the composition of coin; it will differentiate between metal, putty or other additives to the surface so they will also be visible in the profiles. This will be a significant improvement in detecting doctored coins on the first or subsequent submissions.
This technology is new; it has only been around 10-15 years. This is a new use, and smarter people than me will find new ways to use it in grading coins.
LIDAR
Digital Terrain Modeling
Some helpful references.
Computer generated image of a 3D object.
Now imagine those red and blue lines are 0.0001" apart,
This is a simple answer to a complex situation, but I hope it clears away some brush and help you understand the technology a bit better. Remember this technology was developed by scientists with more initials after their name than the royal family.
0
Comments
I like that where it is. There is more to collecting than "submitting" in every sense of the word....
Best,
Eric
That technology is coming online as we speak; at the college where I teach we have a program and machine attached to the computer that will create a 3D model from cadd drawings similar in nature to what I am describing. Welcome to the 21st century.
Geez, I wish I could spell.
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How many years will it be before we know if "the big one" really works?
True, the announcement refers to today, if you notice, when I speak of the grading applications I use the future tense. The uses of this and other emerging technologies will be developed by men smarter than me, but they will be developed and used. The world is changing, and yes alot of this technology will used by unscrupulous people for ill gotten gains. When men create a better mouse trap; the crooks will create better mice.
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<< <i>Heh, I can see a possible future - where the counterfeiters routinely churn out near-molecular level copies of coins, give them a rub or two to alter it, and hawk them, and where the third-party grading systems keep databases of such data to keep up on them. Odd, imagine where a dealer would have to have a laser scanner and high-speed connection to match coins being offered to the third-party graders' databases.... it may not 'kill' coin collecting, but it would certainly change it! >>
A coin made this way would not look like a coin that has been made via the striking process - a big part of an uncirculated coin's looks is the result of the pressure it took to make the coin. No on the other hand, if they used the process you describe to make dies...
>>>My Collection
Will look like a Trabant (aka - Trabi):
"Keep your malarkey filter in good operating order" -Walter Breen
JH
Proof Buffalo Registry Set
Capped Bust Quarters Registry Set
Proof Walking Liberty Halves Registry Set
Will the technology help with varieties?
It seems that it could and if it does, it should usher in a whole new frontier in collecting that some have only dreamed of...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
To answer your question let me try to explain in English what is actually happening.
The light beam is measuring a distance; if you remember your high school physics: Velocity = Distance divided by time it takes. The manufactures know what kind of light they use; therefore, they know the physical properties of the beam in question: wavelength, velocity, etc…. The machine is actually a photocell; it emits the beam and starts a very accurate clock. The beam travels to the object bounces off travels back to the photocell and shuts off the clock. We know the velocity of the beam and we have measured the time of travel; therefore we can calculate the distance traveled by multiplying the velocity by the time then divide by two. This is the base premise of the operation.
Reflectivity of a surface will have no impact because the beam still has to travel to the object then back and a mirror will not speed it up. The factor that determines whether you need a prism to reflect the light beam back is the distance the beam has to travel. When I first started using this technology ( called electronic distance measuring) in the late 1970’s the equipment was huge it utilized infrared light and every distance had to have a mirror (called prism) to reflect the beam back.
In the late 1980’s due to the advances in laser technology they developed a new technology called “prismless”. We no longer needed a prism to reflect the light back it happened by itself. The first instrument that had this ability was limited to about 150 meters or 450 feet. After traveling 200’ or so it was too spread to have enough energy to get back. It had some other limitations on the angle the beam hit the object; too shallow and the beam would bounce away from the gun not back toward it. About five years ago they improved the single beam guns with pulse laser; I now can shoot a prismless distance to 1200 meters or 3600 feet (about 0.7 of a mile) longer than that I still need a prism.
In the mid 1990’s they developed the technology we are talking about now; they took this single beam technology and developed an instrument that had an array of beams. We could now locate a surface all at one time: LIDAR was born.
Scanning coins will be done indoors at small distances; none of the difficulties I face every day will occur in this laboratory like setting. I am sorry this is a long winded answer, but I wanted to be thorough.
Please understand this is just an over view of how this works; I am not a scientist, I am a surveyor who uses this technology. I do not know what difficulties they experienced developing this technology to use on coins at such short distances, but I expect to be reading about it in some of the professional journals I read every month.
I do not see why not; once a known variety is scanned we will have the .dtm file of the surface conditions. The .dtm file is nothing more than a series of coordinates of the data points located. These points will be the same on like varieties. A computer should be able to compare the sample data set to the known data sets to find similarities. I believe this technology could be very helpful in determining die pairs and even dating dateless coins; if enough data points still exist to compare to a known sample. The possibilities are endless.
I agree; I would think PCGS will keep these files very secured. I would even recomend that the computer system used to create and store this information be completely seperate from all other networks and not tie this network to the outside world or internal networks in any way shape of form. That should keep hackers away for a couple of years until they develop a way to grab computer files out of thin air like a cell phone call.
Spatial relationships derived from these techniques are the same, and the reason for making the map in the first place. We use the data points collected to determine vectors between them: direction and distance. We look at changes in slope to get an idea of what the terrain is. I can see similarities between what I do and how it can be used on a small scale to grade coins and identify different varieties of similar coins. The data points are three dimensional coordinates; by comparing vectors between these data points we can determine if the high points on a coin are at the distance necessary to say if it was a strong or weak strike, or have they been worn down by wear. Comparing these distances will allow a grader to make a more informed decision. Up until now that was subjective and based solely on experience; now the powers that be can get together and write a set of technical standards that will be used to determine a grade based on those distances measured. Do you see how this is different now? We can actually measure all sort of spatial relationships that before were only guessed at. Key data points on similar varieties will have similar vectors between them, and we can now measure them. We may actually find new varieties because of the accuracy involved.
I do not pretend to say I understand this new gadget that was developed; all I am saying I see the similarities with what they are doing with what I do for a living. I make maps; they are just mapping the surface of a coin. LIDAR is a tool I use to get the job done, and I believe it, or a close relative is being used here. But, there are other technologies that may have been combined into this gadget as well.
Geologists use ground penetrating radar to map subsurface features not visible from the surface of the earth. These data points collected help them find underground oil and precious metals and what they have to go through to get them. The points collected are mapped by the same methods and spatial relationships are determined by the same equations. Geologists need to know where the rock is and how thick it is to know where to set their drill rigs. If they can find a spot with no rock or a very thin rock layer drilling costs are reduced and more profit is realized.
Does this gadget use some kind of penetrating radar? I do not know, but again I see the similarities. Imagine this gadget mapping the inside of the coin. Is there putty on the surface? Has the coin been drilled and the precious metal removed and replaced with a base metal with a similar specific gravity? Penetrating radar can be used to find doctored coins quickly and reliably.
The latest survey instrument I purchased has a digital camera embedded. Now all I have to do is orient the instrument to a known data point and direction, point it toward the object I am locating and take a picture. My computer software allows me to bring data points into my terrain model from the photograph taken. I just got this technology within the last few months, and I am still learning how and why it works, but it does work because I have experimented with it using known points. Does this gadget use this technology; I do not know. I am still learning about it, and am hard pressed to explain it myself.
Ricko has hinted at some electronics device that can analyze color; does this gadget use it? I have no clue.
I have no doubt what so ever that I will see all of the above technology described used on coins in my lifetime. Why can I make this statement with confidence? Because the real question is whether or not this technology will have a market; I am betting it will. Rare coins are getting very expensive; many are now worth millions of dollars. The professionals at PCGS realize this and are doing everything they can to make sure when they certify a coin worth $5,000,000.00 it is exactly what they say it is. Their reputation and profits depend on it. Now hopefully you will see how big this gadget is; just having the verified history of a $5,000 to $5,000,000 coin will give the buyer, the seller and the certifier a nice warm feeling. Having a certified map of the surface, interior and composition of the coin will wrap them in an electric blanket set on high while sitting 10 feet from a bon fire at high noon on the 4th of July in the mid-Atlantic region of the US. For those on the left coast it averages 90 to 95 degrees at noon on the fourth.
The high end coin prices will only rise in the future and PCGS needs to stay on the cutting edge of technology to provide the services necessary to validate their product; crooks will be using technology to improve their fakes because of the money that is involved.
This gadget is truly the first BIG STEP in that direction. As DW said himself “We really didn't know what to expect. This is complicated new product and there are lots of permutations to consider. It will take some time for everything to be understood.”
JMHO. (Flame suit on)
Greg
Ps. I have several copies of my skull based on the same technology, though take from CTscan and printed on a 3D printer...quite accurate and nice!
<< <i><<The technology is only being used for fingerprinting, and anything relating to grading is false.>>
True, the announcement refers to today, if you notice, when I speak of the grading applications I use the future tense. The uses of this and other emerging technologies will be developed by men smarter than me, but they will be developed and used. The world is changing, and yes alot of this technology will used by unscrupulous people for ill gotten gains. When men create a better mouse trap; the crooks will create better mice.
Get a new crystal ball, computerized grading has been tried and failed, it's an old technology.
If at first you don't succeed; try, try again.
Thomas Edison said when asked about the10,000 failed experiments to develop the storage battery: "If I find 10,000 ways something won't work, I haven't failed. I am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another step forward."
He also said four other things that I try to live my life by:
1) "Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work."
2) "Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up."
3) "Everything comes to him who hustles while he waits." and
4) "There is no expedient to which a man will not go to avoid the labor of thinking."
Anyone see a common thread? Words to live by, quoted by a man much smarter than me.
this is really paranoid thinking that requires a biggggggggggggggggg reach.
Get a new crystal ball, computerized grading has been tried and failed, it's an old technology.
Steve, you seem like a fairly intelligent man to me. the old "tried and failed" technology was from the 1980's when computers and all associated with them were in their infancy. by the admission of PCGS, this "new" technology is on 10-15 years old and its applications are younger still. while computerized grading from my way of thinking can't reasonably be expected to be applied with total disregard to human involvement on some level, it doen't take much of an imagination to make the leap.
as ocon keeps saying, PEOPLE SMARTER THAN ME is the key. i can't understand how someone could be so egocentric as to believe they are smater than those developing these new technologies. do you believe like that??
JH
Proof Buffalo Registry Set
Capped Bust Quarters Registry Set
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