Will the Big One devalue dreck (and will you take advantage of the warning)?

RYK · March 20, 2010 12:58PM

In the Legend Market Report™, Legend writes:

"Without coins, trading is sluggish. Dealers can not move their dreck (LOW END, OVERGRADED, UGLY, etc) coins unless the prices FALL as they will have limited cash. And we predict within the next month to three months prices will fall as hard as ever on these kinds of coins.You should seriously clean up your collection now. Also, as dreck crashes in price, great coins will only rise in value. Its no secret the dreck has been holding back great coins for a few years now. After PCGS makes it historic announcement, the market will change forever. We warned you!"

In this statement, it is implied that the Big One and dreck are inexorably linked. Fortunately, for us Jews, it is also Passover. We are supposed to get rid of chametz before Monday night, thereby providing an excellent opportunity to get rid of our dreck (and schmutz) at the same time.

Seriously, and Yiddishkeit aside, dealers (not just Legend) have been telling us for years that the overgraded, ugly, and overpriced material is crowding the marketplace, and most of us have seen this with our own eyes. What affect will the Big One have on the dreck, if any?

Bonus question: What affect will the Big One have on the ability to sift through the dreck on the verkakte Heritage search function, and will this reverse Realone's verklempt disposition?

Placid · March 20, 2010 1:09PM

Maybe besides a grade a coin will get a eye appeal modifier like + or -.

notwilight · March 20, 2010 1:11PM

Sounds like Laura knows what "the big one" is going to be. As for dreck, I don't think I have any. But it all depends on the definition.

Thanks for the warning. --Jerry

Baley · March 20, 2010 1:14PM

is this central concept, "dreck" a binary function? is a given coin eithe dreck, or not, independent of the "grade" it's represented as, or the price it trades?

thanks. trying to understand the term.

notwilight · March 20, 2010 1:17PM

<< is this central concept, "dreck" a binary function? is a given coin eithe dreck, or not, independent of the "grade" it's represented as, or the price it trades?

thanks. trying to understand the term. >>

You have a good understanding of why it is hard to define....best of luck. Jerry

Placid · March 20, 2010 1:18PM

It is an opinion. But then again so is a grade.

RYK · March 20, 2010 1:20PM

<< is this central concept, "dreck" a binary function? is a given coin eithe dreck, or not, independent of the "grade" it's represented as, or the price it trades?

thanks. trying to understand the term. >>

Oy vay! You are making this harder than it has to be. It's chazerai. Hope this helps.

dogwood · March 20, 2010 1:45PM

Homely gals don't make the comely ones any less fetching, so I don't see Laura's point about the market being held back.
I doubt the Big One will devalue anything, nor should that be It's point.

Walmann · March 20, 2010 1:55PM

<< is this central concept, "dreck" a binary function? is a given coin eithe dreck, or not, independent of the "grade" it's represented as, or the price it trades?

thanks. trying to understand the term. >>

The only way dreck truly can hold prices back on nice coins is by being intermingled amongest the grading scale.

This would not and should not be the case even so if all collectors truly looked at and purchased the coin and not the grade.

This is obviously the other side of the sword when it comes to third party graders as many use them as a crutch.

Bear · March 20, 2010 3:54PM

The dreaded "D" coins are making the statistics for gem coins higher
then they should be. Actual gem coins in solid or PQ condition are far
rarer then the present statistics would imply. Thus when the realization
sinks in, the price of solids and PQ will spring ahead while the (D) coins
will have to drop. With the CAC, NGC stars and the possible coming of PQ
for NGC and PCGS, this will take place sooner , rather then later.

291fifth · March 20, 2010 4:36PM

What's going to happen to Sunday bourse dealers whose entire stock is made up of low end, ugly or overgraded coins? I can think of several where this is the case.

Are the collectors who have kept these folks in business for years suddenly going to wise up?

I doubt it.

pennyannie · March 20, 2010 4:51PM

IMO there is more dreck than good coins on the market at any given time. The dreck will never dissapear and will be with us forever. I do not even see the point of talking about dreck. 99 percent of the non forum collectors have a entire collection of it. DRECK is just high end dealer talk to try to convince you to OVERPAY for correctly graded original coins.

BuffaloIronTail · March 20, 2010 5:00PM

DRECK....SHREK.....I don't care what you call it.

I collect coins.

This is, after all, a HOBBY to a lot of us.

Pete

Raybo · March 20, 2010 5:28PM

Looking at my collection..............i'm doomed!

HalfStrike · March 20, 2010 5:33PM

I sold my dreck two weeks ago, at least the most valuable portion of it.

PS And no, gold buffalos aren't dreck.

SeaEagleCoins · March 20, 2010 6:59PM

<< In the Legend Market Report™, Legend writes:

"Without coins, trading is sluggish. Dealers can not move their dreck (LOW END, OVERGRADED, UGLY, etc) coins unless the prices FALL as they will have limited cash. And we predict within the next month to three months prices will fall as hard as ever on these kinds of coins.You should seriously clean up your collection now. Also, as dreck crashes in price, great coins will only rise in value. Its no secret the dreck has been holding back great coins for a few years now. After PCGS makes it historic announcement, the market will change forever. We warned you!"

In this statement, it is implied that the Big One and dreck are inexorably linked. Fortunately, for us Jews, it is also Passover. We are supposed to get rid of chametz before Monday night, thereby providing an excellent opportunity to get rid of our dreck (and schmutz) at the same time.

Seriously, and Yiddishkeit aside, dealers (not just Legend) have been telling us for years that the overgraded, ugly, and overpriced material is crowding the marketplace, and most of us have seen this with our own eyes. What affect will the Big One have on the dreck, if any?

Bonus question: What affect will the Big One have on the ability to sift through the dreck on the verkakte Heritage search function, and will this reverse Realone's verklempt disposition?

>>

oy vey... you're meshugunah already... but at least you're a doctor...

Steve27 · March 20, 2010 7:20PM

The simple answer is, I will never let Laura influence what I collect. So RYK, become a mensch and learn to control your own fate.

coincollector2007 · March 20, 2010 8:58PM

You guys always quack like ducks gone wild whenever Laura makes comments. Maybe sometime you will read what she says.

I am a customer of hers and know exactly what she is talking about. While I do not always agree with her choice of terms, she does know what she is talking about.

She is not talking about the kinds of coins most you seem to collect here. Her warnings are about garabge in holders. I should know, she just helped me sell about a dozen coins that I had bought from auctions on my own. She sent the coins to CAC for me. Six of the the gold coins I had were puttied and recolored. To me thats a crime committed by both the grading services and dealers. My losses were bad, but I now realize they were not as bad as they could have been.

Whatever PCGS is rolling out, it better be good. The hype surrounding the Big One has already put doubt in my mind. No grading service has much crediblity with me right now unless a CAC sticker is attached. PCGS sure isn't Apple and Hall isn't Jobs!

What Laura calls dreck, I call garbage. If the Big One is really linked to moving dreck, maybe then PCGS will buy the garbage back. That would certainly clean things up.

jmski52 · March 20, 2010 9:20PM

coincollector2007, you have just elucidated the reason why I collect Modern Bullion and no classic gold. I don't call it dreck either. I call it business as usual.

FatMan · March 20, 2010 9:37PM

<< ...After PCGS makes it historic announcement, the market will change forever. We warned you!"

In this statement, it is implied that the Big One and dreck are inexorably linked... >>

It is the TPGs that created the Dreck mess in the first place. I do not put much faith in them to get the market out of it. I am leaning towards them making a bigger mess than ever...hence the "Big One".

itsnotjustme · March 20, 2010 11:04PM

If think if a coin is not a proud to own example, PCGS will put the word Dreck after the grade.

shorecoll · March 20, 2010 11:24PM

I think the high end (say $10k+ coins) has already been affected by CAC and may be affected quickly by the Big One. I think the next level ($1-10k coins) may take a couple of years for the Big One to move through the market as it's taking a while for CAC. I'm not sure what percentage of sub $1k coins have been or will be affected or how long it will take, I think the dreck market has been affected already by the economy and by education passed through discussions like this one. I have 36 of a 50 piece commem set and I know I'm a lot more careful buying now than I was when I started, thanks mostly to this board.

Edited to add: If PCGS offers to regrade all existing slabbed coins for free, that would speed up my timeframe.

bidask · March 20, 2010 11:44PM

I have been selling big coins for big losses before the coming of the big one was announced.

But alas, I went to my ' box of 20/20 ' this weekend and I have more dreck to go.

On top of that I keep thinking what a major coin buyer told me recently that ' coins are not rare' and now I am totally fammished.

In about 2 months it will be a great time for a newbie to buy coins cause they will all be cheaper.

291fifth · March 20, 2010 11:50PM

<< I have been selling big coins for big losses before the coming of the big one was announced.

But alas, I went to my ' box of 20/20 ' this weekend and I have more dreck to go.

On top of that I keep thinking what a major coin buyer told me recently that ' coins are not rare' and now I am totally fammished.

In about 2 months it will be a great time for a newbie to buy coins cause they will all be cheaper. >>

The "coins are not rare" comment is actually dead on when US coins are the subject. Wave around enough money and the US numismatic coins you want will appear.

shorecoll · March 21, 2010 12:16AM

I also think we're in a general market downturn for coins and we're piling on the dreck argument to an already down cycle. If I had some medium level no problem coins that I wanted to get rid of, I think I'd hold them for a few more years.

MrEureka · March 21, 2010 1:59AM

The "coins are not rare" comment is actually dead on when US coins are the subject. Wave around enough money and the US numismatic coins you want will appear.

True, but the opportunity to buy the right US coin at the right price is far rarer.

PerryHall · March 21, 2010 2:05AM

I get the feeling the Big One will devalue all current slabs and if you want to get the best price when it comes time to sell, you will need to resubmit your coins to get them in the new and improved slabs and regraded using the new and improved grading standards.

MrSpud · March 21, 2010 5:05AM

Be a contrarian. If everyone is trying to call their coins dreck and plans on dumping them for whatever they can get for them. then that's the time to buy nice matching sets of coins that get thrown out with the "dreck". Then, when the next cycle goes through and everything starts selling again you'll come out ahead, but only if you enjoy putting together nice sets of matching coins and enjoy them while you own them. Otherwise you'll just have a mismatched set of coins, be they the popular coins or whatever people are saying is overpriced.

tradedollarnut · March 21, 2010 7:05AM

maybe then PCGS will buy the garbage back

Honestly - how could they afford to?

FilthyBroke · March 21, 2010 7:18AM

Honestly, how can anyone take this person seriously? What she claims is difficult to understand, and so general that it holds little credence.

To start with, aren't overgraded coins simply the grader's fault? The coin itself is just a coin, the slabber is at fault. Aren't overpriced coins still the same coins?

Also, why concern yourself with the purchases of others? I can see why the group that was quoted should care, but as a collector why should it concern you unless they are bidding against you?

JedPlanchet · March 21, 2010 8:00AM

<< In the Legend Market Report™, Legend writes:

"Dealers can not move their dreck (LOW END, OVERGRADED, UGLY, etc) coins " >>

Linking three different things in one category is a mistake, IMHO ...

Bear · March 21, 2010 8:43AM

As collectors advance in knowledge or as their tastes change, they should constantly
prune and upgrade collections. One reason is to raise cash for nicer and better coins
the second reason is to get rid of your mistakes.While some collectors will quibble over
what is a dreaded "D" coin, a really bad coin is and will always be, a really bad coin. Now
if you happen to have a 1916-D dime in AG, then that is a very desirable coin.

oreville · March 21, 2010 9:12AM

TPG graded coins purchased from TV marketers (as an example) are the coins that would define dreck very well.

Barry · March 21, 2010 9:28AM

As there are no spelling errors in it what you excerpted, I wonder if Laura really wrote it.

Some of you have may be sucked in by her delusions of grandeur, believing she controls the market, but 99 44/100% of collectors have no idea who Legend is and will never by a coin from them. The pop top, sticker-crazed, registry chasers make up a minuscule portion of the market, and those coins have no influence on mainstream collectors.

JCMhouston · March 21, 2010 9:51AM

I think it makes no real difference to dreck. Most collectors already know which coins are noce and which ones are not, and bid accordingly. There are numerous examples where coins of the same grade get significant differences in price, even in the same auction, it's because one is nicer than the other and that is (and almost always has been) recognized by the collectors.

notwilight · March 21, 2010 10:01AM

<< The "coins are not rare" comment is actually dead on when US coins are the subject. Wave around enough money and the US numismatic coins you want will appear.

True, but the opportunity to buy the right US coin at the right price is far rarer. >>

I agree. I think it is easier to make that comment if you don't have a large wantlist of not necessarily rare but difficult coins.

Or if you're willing to accept low quality for the grade coins it is easier.

For example, I've been looking for an MS66 31-S buffalo which is a fairly common $500 coin but in 2 years I haven't seen an excellent one on the market. I've passed on many.

--Jerry

Longacre · March 21, 2010 10:45AM

As I write these words, I am in [an undisclosed location] in Bangkok. I laughed out loud at the OP. I need to look up a lot of those words.

I think The Big One probably has to do with some hybrid of the CAC concept BUT it will also create a very transparent market for the coins. I am on the edge of my tuk tuk waiting for the announcement.

Will the Big One devalue dreck (and will you take advantage of the warning)?

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